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February 2019 State of Illinois Economic Forecast Report

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February 2019 State of Illinois Economic Forecast Report Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability COMMISSION CO-CHAIRS Senator Heather Steans Representative C.D. Davidsmeyer SENATE HOUSE Donald DeWitte Thomas Bennett David Koehler Sonya Harper Elgie Sims Elizabeth Hernandez Dave Syverson Anna Moeller Jil Tracy Joe Sosnowski EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Clayton Klenke DEPUTY DIRECTOR Laurie Eby REVENUE MANAGER Jim Muschinske EXECUTIVE SECRETARY Briana Jackson ANALYSIS February 2019 State of Illinois Forecast Report Prepared by Sarah Crane Prepared for the State of Illinois Commission on [email protected] Government Forecasting and Accountability Contact Us Email Summary [email protected] Illinois’ economy is having its share of ups and downs, but overall, 2018 was better than the U.S./Canada year before. The state has moved beyond full employment into late-cycle expansion, which is +1.866.275.3266 characterized by labor supply constraints and increasing wage and cost pressures. The first on- time state budget in more than three years is an important step toward restoring private sector EMEA +44.20.7772.5454 (London) confidence. Several private sector industries are strengthening, and greater fiscal certainty and +420.224.222.929 (Prague) growth in tax revenues have allowed the public sector to recoup some jobs. Income growth has accelerated to a greater degree than employment. Accelerating wage growth, based on aver- Asia/Pacific +852.3551.3077 age hourly earnings for the state and the Employment Cost Index for Chicago, reflects the tight labor market and the improving quality of new jobs. On a four-quarter moving average basis, All Others Illinois’ personal income growth is now leading the regional pack. In a turnabout from most of +1.610.235.5299 the past decade, downstate Illinois has outperformed upstate economies for much of the last Web year thanks to a revival in the pivotal manufacturing industry. www.economy.com www.moodysanalytics.com Although the economy has strengthened compared with the previous few years, Illinois still trails the rest of the country in most gauges of economic performance. Employment is increas- ing more slowly than the Midwest and U.S. averages, the labor force is near its lowest point in more than 10 years, and weaker consumer demand than in other states is weighing on popu- Contents lation-dependent industries such as retail, leisure/hospitality and real estate. Progress in the Summary ................................................................1 housing market has slowed; single-family house price appreciation is about half the regional Recent Performance ............................................ 2 and national rates, and builders are putting up fewer units than a year earlier. Near-term outlook .............................................. 4 Illinois will sustain some of its recent momentum in the near term while remaining a na- Long-term outlook: Positive factors ................ 5 tional laggard. The pace of employment and income growth will peak and the unemployment Long-term outlook: Negative factors ...............7 rate will drop to a new low by late 2019. Moderating job gains in the rest of the region over the Income ................................................................... 9 coming quarters will narrow the gap between the Midwest and Illinois growth rates. The expan- Balance sheets.................................................... 10 sion will wind down nationwide in 2020 as higher interest rates, the diminished impact of fiscal Demographic trends ......................................... 10 stimulus, and deficits begin to take their toll. To be a solid performer longer term, Illinois must Residential real estate........................................12 navigate its fiscal challenges without doing lasting damage to its business climate. The state’s Forecast risks ...................................................... 13 demographics present it with another challenge, as an aging population coupled with a trend Demographic profile ......................................... 14 toward fewer workers hampers job and income gains, which are forecast to be below average over the extended forecast horizon. State of Illinois Forecast Report Recent Performance big role in the drop in unemployment, but the stagnant labor force Illinois has moved beyond full employment into late-cycle ex- is also a factor. The labor force participation rate averaged 64.5% pansion, which is characterized by labor supply constraints and in 2018, slightly below the Midwest rate of 65% and comfortably increasing wage and cost pressures. The economy added about above the U.S. rate of 62.9%. Labor force participation stopped 70,000 positions on net last year, two-thirds more than in 2017. decreasing in 2015, signaling cautious optimism in the labor mar- The acceleration in job growth caused Illinois to jump a few spots ket, but the decline since the Great Recession is above average for in the 50-state ranking but was not enough to close the perfor- the region. Some of the drop is also the result of demographic fac- mance gap with the U.S. or region. In fact, Illinois fell a bit fur- tors, mainly the aging of the population. ther behind the rest of the Midwest, where job growth was more Nonetheless, the result has been accelerating wage growth, broad-based across industries. Last year was indeed a good one for based on average hourly earnings for the state and the Employ- Illinois manufacturers and other goods-producing industries, but ment Cost Index for Chicago. The quality of new jobs keeps im- private service providers wobbled. Manufacturing accounted for proving as well; the pace of job creation in high- and mid-wage one in every four net job additions in 2018. occupations is the strongest it has been during this cycle. It is weakness in the low-wage tier, especially population-dependent Employment Growth industries such as retail, that has detracted most from total employment growth. % change yr ago Illinois income has kept up to a greater degree than employ- 4Employment Growth ment thanks in part to the outperformance of well-paying in- 2% change yr ago dustries and the state’s above-average reliance on income from dividends, interest and rents, which has benefited from big stock 0 market gains. The 19% rise in state personal income growth over -2 the last five years is below that in the U.S., Michigan, Minneso- ta, Indiana and Wisconsin, but is the fifth highest in the Midwest -4 overall. As job creation has begun to make some strides more re- -6 cently, total income growth has accelerated even more. On a four- quarter moving average basis, Illinois’ personal income growth is -8 now leading the regional pack. Sources:02 BLS,04 Moody’s06 Analytics08 10 12 14 16 18 The Chicago and Lake County job markets ended 2018 on a high Presentation Title, Date 1 Illinois United States note following a midyear slump. Factory output climbed, accom- Sources: BLS, Moody’s Analytics Presentation Title, Date 1 Unemployment Rate Illinois has trailed its Midwest neighbors in employment and % income growth since the end of the Great Recession, and the gaps have widened over the years. The disparity is more pronounced in 14Unemployment Rate employment, which has expanded more slowly since 2009 than 12% in other Midwest states besides Missouri, Iowa and Kansas. More recently, the energy bust knocked North Dakota to the rear, but 10 Illinois still underperforms most states in the region in job growth. 8 The 5.5% increase in employment over the last five years is a bit 6 more than half the national average and below the average 6% rise in the rest of the Midwest. Job creation has fallen further be- 4 hind in the last two years; Illinois employment is up 1.6% since 2 the end of 2016 versus 2% on average elsewhere in the region and Sources:02 BLS,04 Moody’s06 Analytics08 10 12 14 16 18 3.3% in the U.S. Presentation Title, Date 2 Illinois’ jobless rate is trending lower and hit 4.1% last fall, an Illinois United States all-time low for the 42-year series. Stronger job creation plays a Sources: BLS, Moody’s Analytics Presentation Title, Date 2 MOODY’S ANALYTICS / Copyright© 2019 2 State of Illinois Forecast Report panied by a meaningful rise in manufacturing employment. Chi- vulnerable to disruptions in trade policy than most. As U.S. tariffs cago’s unemployment rate has fallen below 4%, the lowest level were enforced on imported metals, higher operating costs for John since records have been kept. The cluster of well-paying industries Deere pressured profits and have kept a lid on payrolls. is underpinning above-average employment and income growth in Rockford is making progress after stagnating for several years. neighboring Lake County, where growth in average hourly earnings Job growth is the most broad-based across industries that it has and wage and salary income is near the strongest in the region. The been during the current business cycle. Fiat Chrysler recently re- downtown Chicago job and real estate markets are flourishing as tooled its Belvidere plant to add production of the popular Jeep tech expands, but prosperity has bypassed large swaths of the city, Cherokee, although the job gains associated with the retooling are which remains a laggard among the nation’s 10 largest metro areas winding down. and divisions thanks largely to lopsided growth. Peoria is having a tougher time building on meager gains from Factory employment gains in 12 of the past 18 months have the cyclical upturn in manufacturing. Factory output is climbing helped Illinois’ manufacturing industry recover all of the jobs lost and manufacturing and its downstream industries are responsible during the 2015 commodities bust, and then some. Initial growth for all of the net job creation in the last year. Other industries, es- was concentrated in less lucrative food processing, but stronger pecially those that rely on consumer demand, are bleeding jobs, demand for steel, specialty metals, transportation equipment, leaving total metro area employment flat. While Caterpillar’s com- construction equipment and heavy machinery has finally translat- mitment to Peoria appears strong, U.S.
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