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Home , Al Diwaniyah, Al Mayadeen, Baghdad, Highway 1 (Iraq)

A US- Race to Control the - Highway

Joe Macaron

May 31, 2017 A US-Iran Race to Control the Damascus-Baghdad Highway Joe Macaron

The Syrian war has recently taken a new and The 1,200-kilometer begins in decisive turn. The military focus has shifted ( Province) and passes through al- from the country’s western areas to the long- , al-Diwaniyah, al-Hilla, Baghdad, neglected east, and this might now decide the , and before reaching Ratba Levant’s predominant hegemon. Across these ( Province), where it splits into two territories held by the Islamic State in and highways: north to al-Waleed crossing (still the Levant (ISIL) since 2014, American- and under ISIL control) that goes to , and south Iranian-backed armed groups are scrambling to to Taribil crossing that goes to . On the capture or defend territories with one target in Syrian side, becomes the “M2 mind: controlling the strategic Damascus- Damascus-Baghdad Highway,” which goes Baghdad highway. The unprecedented US through Qalamoun, a strategic area that links strike on May 18 that hit Iranian-backed militias to Syria. approaching the al-Tanf military base did not prevent the Syrian regime from advancing For Iran, that strategic highway is consequential toward that critical converging point on the to restoring the main supply line from Iran via Syrian, Iraqi, and Jordanian borders. The battle Iraq to Syria and Lebanon. The United States for that strategic highway could be the ultimate seeks to cut that supply line and build instead a test for President Donald Trump military base flanked by friendly Sunni and Administration’s proclaimed agenda of Kurdish forces. By controlling the Damascus- deterring Iran’s regional activities. Baghdad road, rebels seek to fully break the Syrian regime’s siege in the eastern part of The significance of the al-Tanf crossing Qalamoun, while the Syrian regime aims to deny rebels the ability to disrupt its supply line In May 2015, ISIL captured the last border and to secure the countryside of Damascus. crossing between Syria and Iraq. Within days, government security forces simultaneously The military focus shift to the east was withdrew from the neighboring border of precipitated by three significant developments al-Tanf (southeastern Syria) and al-Waleed in recent weeks: 1) the Astana talks ceasefire (southwestern Iraq) in what was then a pivotal allowed the Syrian regime and the Iranian- moment that allowed ISIL to take over half of backed militias to reconsider priorities and shift the Syrian territories. ISIL fully controlled and manpower from Idlib in Syria’s northwest to eliminated that physical border between Syria Deir Ez-Zor in the east; 2) the weakening of ISIL and Iraq, which allowed the terrorist group to and its rapid withdrawal from large areas on swiftly expand territorial gains. both the Iraqi and Syrian sides left everyone scrambling to capture vacant territories; and 3) “Highway 1,” which runs through Iraq, links the advancement of the Iraqi forces against ISIL the Gulf countries with the Levant via Baghdad. and the potential spillover of ISIL militants

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Arab Center Washington DC May 2017

made controlling the Syrian side of the border a militias working alongside regime forces in the priority. Syrian desert”; and 3) Syrian rebels are pushing pro-Syrian regime forces and Iranian-backed The ground game to secure the Damascus- militias away from the checkpoint Baghdad Highway located around 56 kilometers from al-Tanf.

Syrian opposition groups, based in the al-Tanf The Pentagon remains mute about whether it camp, comprise the Revolutionary Commando will shift away from backing Syrian rebels Army (previously known as the New Syrian against ISIL to supporting them against the Army, backed by the United States), Forces of Syrian regime and the Iranian-backed militias. Martyr Ahmad al-Abdo, Lions of the East, and However, there are indications that it might the Army of Free Tribes (backed by Jordan). In gradually move in that direction. Syrian rebels March 2016, these groups captured the al-Tanf announced on May 30 that they are receiving crossing and struggled initially to protect the support from the United States, Jordan, and base from ISIL attacks, which led to tensions in their efforts to prevent Iran among members of the alliance as well as from opening a supply route between Syria and doubts regarding the US commitment to Iraq. In recent weeks, the rebels have reportedly support them. In December 2016, the New received armored vehicles and TOW missiles. Syrian Army fighters, who were expelled in That limited support will obviously not alter the August 2016 from the Saudi-backed balance of power on the ground but might be Authenticity and Development Front, enough for the rebels to stand their ground. regrouped and formed the Revolutionary Commando Army. Since then, the US-led Under President Barack Obama’s coalition has been gradually expanding Administration, US forces stayed away from influence by investing in a Sunni force that any confrontation with both Syrian regime would lead the ground battle against ISIL in forces and Iranian-backed militias. While Deir Ez-Zor. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis noted that the May 18 strike does not mean “we are increasing our The US-led coalition and the Free Syrian Army role in the Syrian civil war,” he also remarked are working on three fronts: 1) the that “we will defend ourselves if people take Revolutionary Commando Army is advancing aggressive steps against us.” US forces dropped to capture the al-Bukamal crossing with Iraq as fliers on May 29 warning pro-Syrian regime a platform to expand control in Deir Ez-Zor; 2) forces and militias to return to the Zaza the Jordanian-backed Army of Free Tribes is checkpoint; however, hundreds of these troops advancing from southern Syria and on May 30, remain close to the al-Tanf training site with a launched the “desert volcano” military smaller number actually inside the campaign to “oust Iranian and other foreign deconfliction zone. A US-Iran Race to Control the Damascus-Baghdad Highway Joe Macaron

Meanwhile, on May 9 the Syrian regime began What is happening on the Iraqi side of the a military campaign in the east to seize control border cannot be isolated from developments in of Deir Ez-Zor. As a preamble to that military Syria. On May 18, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider shift, the Syrian regime claimed that the United al-Abadi sent his envoy, national security States and Jordan are preparing a ground advisor and head of the Popular Mobilization from the southern border, which the Forces (PMF) Faleh al-Fayyad, to Damascus to Pentagon swiftly denied. However, beyond discuss the need to coordinate the fight against securing the countryside of Damascus, the ISIL and efforts to control the shared border. Syrian regime’s movement toward the al-Tanf While the remains in a stalemate in crossing is mostly returning the favor to the battle, on May 12 the PMF began an by ensuring its access to the Levant. The pro- offensive from the north to the south along the Syrian regime alliance is advancing on three border with Syria. That route carries less risk fronts: 1) from the countryside of Damascus by with no confrontation expected with the Syrian opening a parallel road toward the al-Tanf Kurdish Forces in al-Hasaka in northeastern crossing; 2) from the Syrian desert in the eastern Syria; it also allows the PMF to cut ISIL’s supply countryside of Palmyra in Homs Province line and prevent its militants from crossing into toward the strategic of al-Sakhna; and 3) Syria. After advancing north and controlling from Athriya in Hama Province toward Deir Ez- Umm Jrays on Highway 47, which links Mosul Zor. to the southern countryside of al-Hasaka, Iraqi government forces will be set to meet PMF The Iranian-backed groups helping the Syrian militants in al-Qa’em on Iraq’s border, where regime are most notably the Iraqi-based Kataeb the Iraqi forces are expected to take over Sayyid al-Shuhada (KSS, an Iraqi militia with operations to prevent clashes with US forces on ties to the Iranian-backed ) the Syrian side of the border. and the Lebanese based . The US strike on May 18 hit a convoy led by KSS, which The race for Deir Ez-Zor issued a statement (AR) noting, “a strike on our presence in Syria is a strike on our presence in The pro-Syrian regime forces and allied militias Iraq, and we will hit the enemy and his are attempting to encircle the al-Tanf crossing to supporters everywhere.” Hezbollah has reach the Iraqi border, which would accomplish reportedly deployed 3,000 forces in the al-Tanf two simultaneous objectives: cut the Free Syrian region to participate in the regime’s operations Army road to capture Deir Ez-Zor and ensure in the Syrian desert, known as al-Badiyah. an alternative supply line with Iraq. Indeed, These forces have been active in Qalamoun and Iran reportedly changed the course of its land have dismantled checkpoints on the Lebanese- corridor between Iraq and Syria to avoid a Syrian border to free up forces. confrontation with US forces. The new carved

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Arab Center Washington DC May 2017 corridor is 140 miles south of the US military turn what once was considered an base; it goes through al-Mayadeen and Deir Ez- impoverished area to a strategic prize from Zor to avoid the Kurdish northeast before which to project influence across the eastern crossing into Tel Afar and Mosul. Mediterranean. Whether the Syrian regime cut the Syrian rebels’ road to Deir Ez-Zor or the So far, there are no indications the pro-Syrian other way around, the celebration will not last regime forces and militias will cross the red line for long. The emerging winner will lead the to approach the triangular area that links ultimate battle against ISIL with a rival faction Jordan, Iraq, and Syria; however, the real battle in the back. now is the race between US- and Iran-backed groups to control Deir Ez-Zor, which has been Calculus of the US, Iran, and Russia named the “Berlin” of the Syrian conflict. Deir Ez-Zor lies at the intersection of two armed For the first time in the six years of the Syrian groups backed by the United States. On the one war, the United States seems to be on a collision hand, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces course with Iran. While both the Syrian rebels (SDF) are advancing from the northwest via and the Iranian-backed militias are eager for a ; on the other hand, the Free Syrian Army showdown, Washington and Tehran remain is advancing from the southwest. Last March, cautious for several reasons: the SDF cut the road that links the countryside of Raqqa and Deir Ez-Zor. 1) US options are limited. Beyond its overwhelming air power, the Pentagon’s Dividing influence in Deir Ez-Zor seems ground game is poor in eastern Syria inescapable. Yet, the question is whether that with nearly 1,000 Special Forces and a delineation will be part of a US-Russia complex relationship with the Free understanding or end up being one of Syria’s Syrian Army. The US’s main ally, the most consequential battles. By controlling Deir Syrian Democratic Forces, has an indirect Ez-Zor, Washington hopes to turn it into a agreement with the Syrian regime and is Sunni buffer zone adjacent to northern Kurdish unwilling to engage in a battle with the areas and the Iraqi border. However, it is Iranian-backed militias. Restrained by unclear whether the US approach is only linked the investigation surrounding Russian to defeating ISIL or if it is part of a long-term interference in the US elections, the plan to sustain influence in Syria. Some media Trump Administration’s hands are tied reports (AR) are hinting that the Pentagon is in terms of its ability to make a grand now ready to include the Southern Front, an deal with Moscow on Syria. alliance under the supervision of the US-led Furthermore, Washington’s relationship Military Operations Center based in , in with is strained for multiple that battle. Winning control of eastern Syria will reasons, most notably because of the US A US-Iran Race to Control the Damascus-Baghdad Highway Joe Macaron

arming of Syrian , which has left the potential of confrontation will US forces acting as a buffer between increase. The only way to prevent an Turkish forces and the Kurdish People’s open war in eastern Syria is to sustain the Protection Units (YPG). US policy in Iraq US-Russian open communications largely depends on P.M. Haider al-Abadi channel. On the other hand, Moscow is staying in power, though at any given not leaving anything to chance. On May time, Iranian pressure could hamper, if 31, its cruise missiles hit ISIL positions not doom, his ability to govern. near Palmyra in the southeast, thus again making Russia’s role pivotal in the battle 2) Iran can only go so far. Without Russian against the group and in the eventual airpower, Iranian-backed militias have a outcome of the competition for the Iraqi- tremendous handicap in approaching US Syrian border. forces. Tehran cannot afford losing its partnership with Moscow while its It is not clear to what extent Syria and Iran are relationship with Ankara remains in conflict or working in tandem when it comes difficult. The Iranian-backed militias are to eastern Syria. Obviously, Moscow is in a already stretched thin; moving compromise mode since the Astana talks, while Hezbollah to the east means less troops Iran is focused on the priority of securing a to fight ISIL and al-Nusra along the supply line between Syria and Iraq. The United Lebanese-Syrian border. Nothing was States is ready to accept a Russian role if Iran more helpful for Iranian-backed militias stays away from southern Syria; however, the than US neutrality in the Syrian civil war; possibility of a disagreement between Moscow therefore, direct US involvement might and Tehran might be elusive. So far, US and be a game changer that could roll back Russian airpower has been restrained, allowing some of Iran’s gains in Syria. both the Syrian regime and opposition to lead the ground battle. However, a gradual 3) Where Russia stands. Russian Foreign escalation could lead to a subtle cold war on Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow was Syrian soil between the two major powers. not informed about the May 18 strike and Washington has the option now to either help described the American use of force in al- Syrian rebels race toward Deir Ez-Zor or push Tanf as “very alarming.” Russia will not back against the Syrian regime and its allies. If risk providing air support for the Iranian Iranian militias move in to targets in the vicinity move toward al-Tanf, not only because it of al-Tanf, that will likely provoke the United does not seek a confrontation with the States to become further entangled in the war. United States but also because it needs The Syrian regime has the military edge but has Washington’s endorsement of the “de- a lot of areas to cover, while the Syrian rebels escalation zone.” If the Astana talks fail,

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Arab Center Washington DC May 2017 have the quicker route to capture the al- Bukamal crossing and move into Deir Ez-Zor. The upcoming summer in the Syrian desert will make the terrain extremely difficult to navigate; What matters for the United States at this stage areas in Deir Ez-Zor and al-Baaj (Iraq) will be is to control Iraq’s Highway 1, which splits into harder to capture, leaving US and Iraqi forces Jordan and Syria. A US security company with a sole option: to rely on airpower. While already has received the contract to secure the ISIL is retreating, it still has the strength to resist road to Jordan despite criticism from the PMF, and might exploit the divisions among the rival and Sunni tribal units took over the Ratba factions. If the United States and Iran opt to end district behind the Taribil border crossing to their tacit understanding in fighting ISIL, that calm US and Jordanian concerns. Now the would have repercussions from Iraq to Trump Administration is attempting to secure Lebanon. The Trump Administration’s Syria the Baghdad-Damascus road. The question is policy will be tested in the coming weeks; it will whether the United States is ready to share have to decide whether defending the influence with Iran in pushing to establish a Damascus-Baghdad highway is worth direct US supply line from al-Mayadeen to Tel Afar, or if involvement in the Syrian war. it will seek full control of the Iraqi-Syrian border.

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