Arctic Science
Spring distribution of ringed seals (Pusa hispida) in Eclipse Sound and Milne Inlet, Nunavut: implications for potential ice-breaking activities
Journal: Arctic Science
Manuscript ID AS-2018-0020.R2
Manuscript Type: Note
Date Submitted by the 27-Sep-2018 Author:
Complete List of Authors: Yurkowski, David; University of Manitoba, Department of Biological Sciences; Fisheries and Oceans Canada Central and Arctic Region Young, Brent;Draft Fisheries and Oceans Canada Central and Arctic Region Dunn, Blair; Fisheries and Oceans Canada Central and Arctic Region Ferguson, Steven; Fisheries and Oceans Canada Central and Arctic Region
Aerial survey, Anthropogenic stressor, Conservation, Hotspot, Infrared Keyword: imagery
Is the invited manuscript for consideration in a Special Not applicable (regular submission) Issue?:
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1 Spring distribution of ringed seals (Pusa hispida) in Eclipse Sound and Milne 2 Inlet, Nunavut: implications for potential ice-breaking activities 3 4 David J. Yurkowski*1,2, Brent G. Young2, J. Blair Dunn2, and Steven H. Ferguson1,2 5 6 1 Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 7 2N2, Canada (DJY: [email protected]) 8 2 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 2N6, Canada (BG: 9 [email protected]; BD: [email protected]; SHF: 10 [email protected]) 11 12 Corresponding author*: David Yurkowski – Email: [email protected] 13
14 Type of article: Research Note
15 Number of tables: 1
16 Number of figures: 2
17 Number of references: 31 Draft
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18 Abstract
19 Resource development in Arctic waters is proceeding rapidly leading to increased
20 interactions with Arctic wildlife. As sea ice extent decreases, the demand for shipping
21 and ice-breaking operations will expand into winter and spring with greater impact on
22 ice-dependent pinnipeds. However, knowledge of the distribution of these species, such
23 as ringed seals (Pusa hispida), during spring within areas of resource development is
24 lacking. Baffinland’s Mary River iron ore port in southern Milne Inlet, Nunavut opened in
25 2015 with proposed ice-breaking activities in spring – an important period in ringed seal
26 seasonal life-history. We conducted infrared and photographic aerial surveys in June
27 2016 and 2017 to overlay the proposed ice-breaking route with ringed seal hotspots (i.e.
28 areas of higher density). We identifiedDraft four areas of overlap where proposed ice-
29 breaking would traverse through ringed seal hotspots: eastern and western Eclipse
30 Sound (a ringed seal pupping ground identified by local knowledge), middle of Milne
31 Inlet, and southern Milne Inlet. We identified potential negative implications of spring
32 ice-breaking operations on ringed seals such as displacement, separation of mothers
33 and pups, destruction of resting and birth lairs, and vessel-seal collisions. Results are
34 relevant to policy decision-makers who can develop mitigation strategies in the rapidly
35 thawing and developing Arctic.
36
37 Key words: Aerial survey, Anthropogenic stressor, Conservation, Hotspot, Infrared
38 imagery
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39 Introduction
40 The distribution of animals is affected by a broad suite of abiotic, biotic and
41 anthropogenic factors that influence habitat use at numerous spatiotemporal scales
42 (Levin 1992). Therefore, quantifying animal space-use and density patterns is critical to
43 conservation and management, particularly in environments undergoing rapid change
44 such as the Arctic marine ecosystem (IPCC 2013). Climate change is most pronounced
45 in the Arctic and receding sea ice allows a longer season of anthropogenic
46 disturbances, such as shipping and resource development, placing new stresses on
47 Arctic wildlife (Post et al. 2013; Pizzolato et al. 2014). For example, shipping in Arctic
48 waters is developing rapidly with increases in polar tourism, and natural resource
49 extraction leading to increased interactionsDraft with Arctic marine mammals. Possible
50 interactions include the potential for collisions, higher noise levels in the Arctic
51 soundscape, and destruction of sea ice habitat through spring ice-breaking activities
52 (Reeves et al. 2014; Laidre et al. 2015; Halliday et al. 2017; Hauser et al. 2018).
53 Pagophilic (i.e. ice-dependent) pinnipeds can be highly sensitive to ice-breaking
54 activities, which for example in Caspian seals (Pusa capsica), has resulted in increased
55 mortality rates (Harkonen et al. 2008), as well as increased the potential for non-
56 consumptive (i.e. sub-lethal) effects (e.g. higher incidences of mother-pup separation;
57 Wilson et al. 2017). Ringed seals, who are endemic to the circumpolar Arctic and are a
58 pillar to Inuit culture, typically rely on shore-fast ice for building subnivean resting and
59 birthing lairs in winter and spring, and as a basking platform during their annual spring
60 molt (McLaren 1958; Smith 1987; Kenny and Chan 2017). However, ringed seal
61 distribution and hotspots (i.e. areas of significantly higher density) during spring within
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62 areas of rapid resource development and potential ice-breaking activities is poorly
63 documented.
64 Baffinland’s Mary River iron ore mine and port in southern Milne Inlet, Nunavut
65 (see Fig. 1) opened in 2015 with high shipping activity occurring during the open water
66 season and proposed ice-breaking activities in spring – an important period in ringed
67 seals’ seasonal life-history due to their establishment of territories and subsequent
68 parturition, nursing, breeding and basking activities (McLaren 1958; Smith 1987; See
69 Table 1). Therefore, ice-breaking activities in the Eclipse Sound area, which includes
70 Navy Board Inlet, Tremblay Sound, Milne Inlet, Koluktoo Bay and Eclipse Sound could
71 have negative implications on ringed seal productivity and the population.
72 Here, we assessed the springDraft distribution of ringed seals in the Eclipse Sound
73 area by performing infrared and photographic aerial surveys in June 2016 and 2017.
74 We quantified inter-annual variability of ringed seal hotspots between 2016 and 2017,
75 and compared the proposed ice-breaking shipping route with ringed seal surface
76 density. Our hotspot methods can be used in future research to inform decisions related
77 to potential ice-breaking activities in Arctic regions undergoing increased shipping and
78 for the development of mitigation strategies.
79
80 Materials and methods
81 Survey design
82 Aerial surveys were conducted in four strata: Eclipse Sound, Milne Inlet,
83 Tremblay Sound, and Navy Board Inlet, Nunavut. Surveys were flown in June of 2016
84 (June 17 to 22) and 2017 (June 6 to 8) using a DeHavilland Twin Otter (DH-6) equipped
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85 with bubble windows and a camera port at the rear underbelly of the plane. In 2016,
86 most snow cover had melted by the time each survey was conducted while in 2017,
87 there was still significant snow cover at the time of the surveys. However, both surveys
88 were flown after the ringed seal subnivean period. In addition, the distribution of ringed
89 seals and their hotspots during the basking period in June are also likely similar to that
90 in March, as ringed seals exhibit minimal movement and small home ranges throughout
91 the ice-covered period (Luque et al. 2014; Yurkowski et al. 2016). A Global Positioning
92 System (GPS) was used to log the position, altitude, speed and heading of the aircraft
93 every second. Surveys were flown at a target ground speed of 204 km/h (110 knots)
94 and a target altitude of 305 m (1000 ft). In 2016, all four survey strata were completed
95 and repeated (see Fig. 1). In 2017, oneDraft survey of Eclipse Sound and Navy Board Inlet
96 were completed while Milne Inlet and Tremblay Sound could not be surveyed due to
97 adverse weather conditions.
98 Infrared technology is a reliable, accurate method to survey ice-associated
99 pinnipeds (Udevitz et al. 2008; Conn et al. 2014; Young et al. In Revision). Therefore,
100 we used a forward-looking infrared camera (FLIR T1030sc) with a 45° lens and a Nikon
101 D810 digital single-lens reflex (DSLR) camera with a 35 mm lens. Thermal infrared
102 imagery (video files) and DSLR photographs were obtained from a strip directly below
103 the aircraft. Photographs were taken at an interval of two seconds, providing overlap
104 between consecutive photos. At the target altitude of 305 m, the strip width covered by
105 both the DSLR camera (resolution of 7360 x 4912 pixels) and the infrared camera
106 (resolution of 1024 x 768 pixels) was 250 m. Observations of ringed seals were
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107 analysed using strip transect methods and ringed seal density was estimated using the
108 standard ratio estimate (Buckland et al. 2001).
109 Infrared video files were analysed by a single observer using FLIR ResearchIR
110 Max software version 4.30.1.70 (FLIR Systems, Inc., Wilsonville, OR, USA) to detect
111 heat signatures indicative of potential seals. All potential seals observed in the infrared
112 imagery were verified by checking the corresponding images obtained from the Nikon
113 DSLR camera. In this verification process, only the DSLR photographs that
114 corresponded to potential seals in the infrared imagery were analysed. We analyzed a
115 random set of 802 photographs to assess the rate of successful detection of the infrared
116 camera where 33 out of 34 (97%) of the observed seals were also detected in the
117 infrared imagery, offering high confidenceDraft in the infrared imagery method (see Young et
118 al. In Revision for more details). GPS coordinates of the observed seals were extracted
119 from the photograph metadata to perform analysis of seal distribution and space use.
120 Data analysis
121 We constructed a spatial distribution map of ringed seals in the study area by summing
122 the number of individuals within 5 km x 5 km grid cells using ArcGIS 10.5 (ESRI Inc.,
123 USA). In 2016, when multiple surveys of each stratum were conducted, we only used
124 observations of ringed seals from the survey that had the highest density of individuals
125 and densities were calculated using the standard ratio estimate (see Young et al. In
126 Revision). Briefly, density estimates were highest in Milne Inlet (1.40 individuals/km2;
127 flown on June 22, 2016) followed by Eclipse Sound (0.98 individuals/km2; flown on June
128 19 and 22, 2016) and Navy Board Inlet (0.74 individuals/km2; flown on June 22, 2016).
129 All data were projected to a Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area projection before analysis.
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130 We then performed a spatial hotspot analysis in the form of Getis-Ord Gi* statistic (Getis
131 and Ord 1992) in ArcGIS to quantify specific areas of high spatial clustering and
132 significance. The Getis-Ord Gi* statistic tests the spatial clustering of grid cell values
133 that are higher (hotspot) or lower (coldspot) than is expected by a random distribution.
134 Significance tests using z-scores were performed between nearby grid cells in a
135 surrounding neighbourhood area (Getis and Ord 1992). A z-score above 1.96 (red) or
136 below -1.96 (blue) is significant at the α = 0.05 level and indicates a hotspot and
137 coldspot for ringed seals, respectively. To conceptualize the spatial relationship, we
138 used the more conservative polygon contiguity conceptualization (i.e. contiguity edges
139 corners in ArcGIS) – a common approach when equal area grid units are used within
140 areal datasets (Harvey et al. 2017). DraftWe calculated the spatial and percentage overlap
141 (km2 and % area, respectively) of ringed seal hotspots between 2016 and 2017 using
142 the Union geoprocessing tool in ArcGIS. The proposed ice-breaking route was obtained
143 from Baffinland and the Nunavut Planning Commission, and georeferenced in ArcGIS
144 from CBC 2017).
145
146 Results
147 The number of ringed seals observed per 5 km x 5 km grid cell ranged from 0 to 14
148 individuals. Observations of ringed seals were more common in Eclipse Sound and
149 Milne Inlet than in Navy Board Inlet (Fig. 2a, c). In 2016, ringed seal hotspots were
150 identified in several areas: 1) eastern Eclipse Sound near the entrance to Baffin Bay, 2)
151 in western Eclipse Sound near the southern point of Bylot Island, 3) northern section of
152 Tremblay Sound, 4) in the middle of Milne Inlet, and 5) in southern Milne Inlet northward
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153 of Koluktoo Bay (Fig. 2b). The proposed ice-breaking route overlapped ringed seal
154 hotspots in four different areas (eastern and western Eclipse Sound, midway in Milne
155 Inlet and in southern Milne Inlet; Fig. 2b). In 2017, ringed seal hotspots occurred within
156 the proposed ice-breaking route in eastern, western, and southwestern Eclipse Sound
157 (Fig. 2c, d). Note that Milne Inlet could not be surveyed in 2017 due to inclement
158 weather. The amount of spatial overlap of ringed seal hotspots in Eclipse Sound and
159 Navy Board Inlet between 2016 and 2017 was low (75 km2 and 12%) due to a smaller
160 hotspot size in 2016 than in 2017 in western Eclipse Sound and due to a shift of 10 km
161 to the east of the eastern Eclipse Sound hotspot in 2017 (Fig 2). However, general
162 locations of ringed seals hotspots in western and eastern Eclipse Sound were
163 cartographically similar inter-annually.Draft
164
165 Discussion and conclusion
166 We identified several ringed seal hotspots in Eclipse Sound and Milne Inlet which
167 proposed ice-breaking would traverse through in spring. An area of particular
168 importance is the ringed seal hotspot in western Eclipse Sound extending southward
169 from Bylot Island, which has been documented as a ringed seal pupping ground through
170 traditional ecological knowledge (Baffinland 2012). Furthermore, hotspots from the 2017
171 aerial survey also encompassed part of this large ringed seal pupping ground further
172 highlighting its importance. Southern Milne Inlet is also a ringed seal hotspot and had
173 relatively high densities of ringed seals in a 2008 aerial survey (2.2 individuals/km2 in
174 Koluktoo Bay and 1.3 individuals/km2 in Milne Inlet; Baffinland 2012). Eastern Eclipse
175 Sound and Tremblay Sound were also ringed seal hotspots which are areas of popular
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176 tourist floe edge camps in spring (i.e. Arctic Adventures and Black Feather) and attract
177 high concentrations of narwhal in summer, respectively (Doniol-Valcroze et al. 2015).
178 Future research to quantify ringed seal hotspots relative to dynamic variables such as
179 sea ice topography and thickness, bathymetry, prey availability and polar bear predation
180 pressure are needed to determine important factors that support preferred ringed seal
181 winter habitat and its inter-annual persistence in particular areas. Identifying areas
182 where ringed seal densities are highest and understanding why they might shift over
183 time would provide important information for management to evaluate anthropogenic
184 stressors and to develop mitigation strategies of potential spring ice-breaking activities
185 on Arctic wildlife in the area.
186 Anthropogenic disturbances causeDraft animal behaviour and physiology responses
187 (i.e. stress and energetic burdens) at the individual level that can propagate up to
188 demographic consequences at the population level (McHuron et al. 2017). For example,
189 high levels of vessel noise can disrupt foraging behaviour and may be associated with
190 chronic stress in cetaceans (Rolland et al. 2012; Wisniewska et al. 2018). Ice-breaking
191 can significantly displace and disturb Caspian seal mother-pup pairs from their resting
192 position within 200m of the vessel (Wilson et al. 2017). A distance of at least 250 m and
193 speeds ≤ 2.2 knots were found to minimize disturbance to mothers and pups in the
194 Caspian Sea (Wilson et al. 2017). However, most Arctic ice-breakers are larger, more
195 powerful and can navigate through thicker ice than Caspian Sea ice-breaking vessels
196 which range from 66-96 m in length (Wilson et al. 2017). Therefore, Arctic ice-breakers
197 would likely create more noise and disturbance, and equate to a much larger ‘safe’
198 distance than 250 m. Separation of ringed seal mother and pups during the critical three
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199 month neonatal and nursing period (March to May) would have detrimental
200 consequences to pup survival by ending the lactation period prematurely. However, a
201 disturbance diameter of 500m along the vessel path would make it difficult to navigate
202 from Eclipse Sound entrance to the port site at the base of Milne Inlet while avoiding
203 ringed seal hotspots, especially if subsequent trips use different paths through the ice to
204 avoid refrozen rubble. For example, in southern Milne Inlet northward of Koluktoo Bay,
205 distances between shorelines range from 7 to 14 km, therefore shipping disturbance on
206 ringed seals is likely unavoidable in this narrow area.
207 In 2017, Baffinland proposed a 189 m long icebreaking cargo vessel, the MV
208 Nunavik, to traverse through Eclipse Sound and Milne Inlet to its port site during late
209 March – a critical time period in ringedDraft seal seasonal life-history (see CBC 2017). As
210 such, this ice-breaking vessel would likely destroy critical ringed seal subnivean birth
211 and nursing habitat, breathing holes, resting lairs and haulout platforms in the shore-fast
212 ice. Subnivean birth lairs maintained by adult females provides pups protection against
213 inclement weather and predation from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and Arctic foxes
214 (Vulpes vulpes; Smith and Stirling 1975). As observed in Caspian seals, there will also
215 be an incidence of vessel-ringed seal collisions resulting in mortality, to which pups are
216 most susceptible (Wilson et al. 2017). Other pinnipeds, such as Atlantic walrus
217 (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus) are also susceptible to collisions if ice-breakers
218 traverse through preferred walrus habitat (Stewart et al. 2014). Wilson et al. (2017) also
219 documented that collisions were most frequent at speeds ≥ 4 knots and at night possibly
220 due to individuals being dazzled by ship lights.
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221 To minimize negative impacts of ice-breaking traffic on ringed seals in the
222 Eclipse Sound area, mitigation strategies need to be developed and integrated prior to
223 these activities occurring. As such, having no ice-breaking activities during the ringed
224 seal parturition, nursing and breeding period would greatly reduce negative impacts on
225 the ringed seal population. Such mitigation would require supply logistics to already be
226 in place prior to this critical time period. In addition, the ice-breaking route should avoid
227 ringed seal hotspots and pupping grounds in western eclipse Sound. For example, ice-
228 breaking vessels could be routed through areas with lower densities of ringed seals
229 such as Navy Board Inlet, though ice-breaking would be unavoidable in ringed seal
230 hotspots in southern Milne Inlet. To lower the probability of collisions, restricting speeds
231 could likely allow successful manoeuvrabilityDraft of ships around hauled out seals while
232 also maintaining a ‘safe distance’ of at least 250m. However, more precaution in speed
233 and a farther ‘safe distance’ would likely be needed for larger Arctic ice-breaking
234 vessels. Given rapid resource and industrial development across the Arctic, more
235 studies like this are required to inform management and policy decision-makers who
236 can then develop effective mitigation strategies and cumulative effects assessments in
237 a rapidly developing world.
238
239 Acknowledgements
240 Funding for this research was provided by Polar Continental Shelf Project (PCSP),
241 Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), World Wildlife Fund Canada
242 (WWF), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) and ArcticNet. We thank our Twin Otter
243 captains, first officers, and engineers from Kenn Borek Air Ltd. We also thank
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244 Mittimatalik Hunters and Trappers Organization of Pond Inlet, NU for supporting this
245 research. We thank Jeff Higdon for input and Jarrett Friesen for georeferencing the
246 proposed ice-breaking route.
247
248 Conflict of Interest
249 The authors have conflicts of interest to report.
250
251 References
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369 vessels transiting pupping areas of an ice-breeding seal. Biol. Cons. 214: 213- 370 222. doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2017.05.028 371 372 Wisniewska, D.M., Johnson, M., Teilmann, J., Siebert, U., Galatius, A., Dietz, R. and 373 Madsen, P.T. 2018. High rates of vessel noise disrupt foraging in wild harbour 374 porpoises (Phoecena phoecena). Proc. R. Soc. B 285: 20172314. 375 doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.2314 376 377 Young, B.G. Yurkowski, D.J., Dunn, B. and Ferguson, S.H. 2018. Comparing the use of 378 infrared imagery with traditional aerial survey methods to estimate ringed seal 379 density on ice. Wild. Soc. Bull. In Revision. 380 381 Yurkowski, D.J., Semeniuk, C.A.D., Harwood, L.A., Rosing-Asvid, A., Dietz, R., Brown, 382 T.M., Clackett, S., Grgicak-Mannion, A., Fisk, A.T and Ferguson, S.H. 2016. 383 Influence of sea ice phenology on the movement of ringed seals across their 384 latitudinal range. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 562: 237-250. 385 doi.org/10.3354/meps11950 Draft
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386 Table 1. Key ringed seal behavioural and life-history parameters by month during the 387 ice-covered winter and spring (January to July).
388 Territories Parturition Nursing Mating Basking January x February x March x x x April x x x x May x x x x June x July x 389 References: McLaren (1958); Smith and Stirling (1975); Smith and Hammill (1981); 390 Smith (1987); Hammill et al. (1991); Chambellant et al. (2012)
Draft
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Figure captions
Figure 1. Map of Eclipse Sound, NU highlighting the community of Pond Inlet, the shipping port and proposed shipping/ice-breaking route (red; A). Survey strata and transects flown in the Eclipse Sound area during aerial surveys of ringed seals in June of 2016 (black; B). Map was generated using ArcGIS 10.5 (ESRI Inc., USA). NBI: Navy Board Inlet, MI: Milne Inlet, KB: Koluktoo Bay, TS: Tremblay Sound
Figure 2. The 2016 (A) and 2017 (C) spatial distribution of ringed seals per 5 km x 5 km grid cell in Eclipse Sound, Milne Inlet, Tremblay Sound and Navy Board Inlet. Associated 2016 (B) and 2017 (D) ringed seal hotspots are provided per 5 km x 5 km grid cell across the study area (B). Yellow and red signify an insignificant and significant grid cell, respectively. Black line represents the proposed shipping/ice-breaking route in (B) and (D). Milne Inlet transect was not surveyed in 2017 due to inclement weather (see Materials and methods). Map was generated using ArcGIS 10.5 (ESRI Inc., USA).
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