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Spring Distribution of Ringed Seals (Pusa Hispida) in Eclipse Sound and Milne Inlet, Nunavut: Implications for Potential Ice-Breaking Activities

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Spring Distribution of Ringed Seals (Pusa Hispida) in Eclipse Sound and Milne Inlet, Nunavut: Implications for Potential Ice-Breaking Activities Arctic Science Spring distribution of ringed seals (Pusa hispida) in Eclipse Sound and Milne Inlet, Nunavut: implications for potential ice-breaking activities Journal: Arctic Science Manuscript ID AS-2018-0020.R2 Manuscript Type: Note Date Submitted by the 27-Sep-2018 Author: Complete List of Authors: Yurkowski, David; University of Manitoba, Department of Biological Sciences; Fisheries and Oceans Canada Central and Arctic Region Young, Brent;Draft Fisheries and Oceans Canada Central and Arctic Region Dunn, Blair; Fisheries and Oceans Canada Central and Arctic Region Ferguson, Steven; Fisheries and Oceans Canada Central and Arctic Region Aerial survey, Anthropogenic stressor, Conservation, Hotspot, Infrared Keyword: imagery Is the invited manuscript for consideration in a Special Not applicable (regular submission) Issue?: https://mc06.manuscriptcentral.com/asopen-pubs Page 1 of 19 Arctic Science 1 Spring distribution of ringed seals (Pusa hispida) in Eclipse Sound and Milne 2 Inlet, Nunavut: implications for potential ice-breaking activities 3 4 David J. Yurkowski*1,2, Brent G. Young2, J. Blair Dunn2, and Steven H. Ferguson1,2 5 6 1 Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 7 2N2, Canada (DJY: [email protected]) 8 2 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 2N6, Canada (BG: 9 [email protected]; BD: [email protected]; SHF: 10 [email protected]) 11 12 Corresponding author*: David Yurkowski – Email: [email protected] 13 14 Type of article: Research Note 15 Number of tables: 1 16 Number of figures: 2 17 Number of references: 31 Draft 1 https://mc06.manuscriptcentral.com/asopen-pubs Arctic Science Page 2 of 19 18 Abstract 19 Resource development in Arctic waters is proceeding rapidly leading to increased 20 interactions with Arctic wildlife. As sea ice extent decreases, the demand for shipping 21 and ice-breaking operations will expand into winter and spring with greater impact on 22 ice-dependent pinnipeds. However, knowledge of the distribution of these species, such 23 as ringed seals (Pusa hispida), during spring within areas of resource development is 24 lacking. Baffinland’s Mary River iron ore port in southern Milne Inlet, Nunavut opened in 25 2015 with proposed ice-breaking activities in spring – an important period in ringed seal 26 seasonal life-history. We conducted infrared and photographic aerial surveys in June 27 2016 and 2017 to overlay the proposed ice-breaking route with ringed seal hotspots (i.e. 28 areas of higher density). We identifiedDraft four areas of overlap where proposed ice- 29 breaking would traverse through ringed seal hotspots: eastern and western Eclipse 30 Sound (a ringed seal pupping ground identified by local knowledge), middle of Milne 31 Inlet, and southern Milne Inlet. We identified potential negative implications of spring 32 ice-breaking operations on ringed seals such as displacement, separation of mothers 33 and pups, destruction of resting and birth lairs, and vessel-seal collisions. Results are 34 relevant to policy decision-makers who can develop mitigation strategies in the rapidly 35 thawing and developing Arctic. 36 37 Key words: Aerial survey, Anthropogenic stressor, Conservation, Hotspot, Infrared 38 imagery 2 https://mc06.manuscriptcentral.com/asopen-pubs Page 3 of 19 Arctic Science 39 Introduction 40 The distribution of animals is affected by a broad suite of abiotic, biotic and 41 anthropogenic factors that influence habitat use at numerous spatiotemporal scales 42 (Levin 1992). Therefore, quantifying animal space-use and density patterns is critical to 43 conservation and management, particularly in environments undergoing rapid change 44 such as the Arctic marine ecosystem (IPCC 2013). Climate change is most pronounced 45 in the Arctic and receding sea ice allows a longer season of anthropogenic 46 disturbances, such as shipping and resource development, placing new stresses on 47 Arctic wildlife (Post et al. 2013; Pizzolato et al. 2014). For example, shipping in Arctic 48 waters is developing rapidly with increases in polar tourism, and natural resource 49 extraction leading to increased interactionsDraft with Arctic marine mammals. Possible 50 interactions include the potential for collisions, higher noise levels in the Arctic 51 soundscape, and destruction of sea ice habitat through spring ice-breaking activities 52 (Reeves et al. 2014; Laidre et al. 2015; Halliday et al. 2017; Hauser et al. 2018). 53 Pagophilic (i.e. ice-dependent) pinnipeds can be highly sensitive to ice-breaking 54 activities, which for example in Caspian seals (Pusa capsica), has resulted in increased 55 mortality rates (Harkonen et al. 2008), as well as increased the potential for non- 56 consumptive (i.e. sub-lethal) effects (e.g. higher incidences of mother-pup separation; 57 Wilson et al. 2017). Ringed seals, who are endemic to the circumpolar Arctic and are a 58 pillar to Inuit culture, typically rely on shore-fast ice for building subnivean resting and 59 birthing lairs in winter and spring, and as a basking platform during their annual spring 60 molt (McLaren 1958; Smith 1987; Kenny and Chan 2017). However, ringed seal 61 distribution and hotspots (i.e. areas of significantly higher density) during spring within 3 https://mc06.manuscriptcentral.com/asopen-pubs Arctic Science Page 4 of 19 62 areas of rapid resource development and potential ice-breaking activities is poorly 63 documented. 64 Baffinland’s Mary River iron ore mine and port in southern Milne Inlet, Nunavut 65 (see Fig. 1) opened in 2015 with high shipping activity occurring during the open water 66 season and proposed ice-breaking activities in spring – an important period in ringed 67 seals’ seasonal life-history due to their establishment of territories and subsequent 68 parturition, nursing, breeding and basking activities (McLaren 1958; Smith 1987; See 69 Table 1). Therefore, ice-breaking activities in the Eclipse Sound area, which includes 70 Navy Board Inlet, Tremblay Sound, Milne Inlet, Koluktoo Bay and Eclipse Sound could 71 have negative implications on ringed seal productivity and the population. 72 Here, we assessed the springDraft distribution of ringed seals in the Eclipse Sound 73 area by performing infrared and photographic aerial surveys in June 2016 and 2017. 74 We quantified inter-annual variability of ringed seal hotspots between 2016 and 2017, 75 and compared the proposed ice-breaking shipping route with ringed seal surface 76 density. Our hotspot methods can be used in future research to inform decisions related 77 to potential ice-breaking activities in Arctic regions undergoing increased shipping and 78 for the development of mitigation strategies. 79 80 Materials and methods 81 Survey design 82 Aerial surveys were conducted in four strata: Eclipse Sound, Milne Inlet, 83 Tremblay Sound, and Navy Board Inlet, Nunavut. Surveys were flown in June of 2016 84 (June 17 to 22) and 2017 (June 6 to 8) using a DeHavilland Twin Otter (DH-6) equipped 4 https://mc06.manuscriptcentral.com/asopen-pubs Page 5 of 19 Arctic Science 85 with bubble windows and a camera port at the rear underbelly of the plane. In 2016, 86 most snow cover had melted by the time each survey was conducted while in 2017, 87 there was still significant snow cover at the time of the surveys. However, both surveys 88 were flown after the ringed seal subnivean period. In addition, the distribution of ringed 89 seals and their hotspots during the basking period in June are also likely similar to that 90 in March, as ringed seals exhibit minimal movement and small home ranges throughout 91 the ice-covered period (Luque et al. 2014; Yurkowski et al. 2016). A Global Positioning 92 System (GPS) was used to log the position, altitude, speed and heading of the aircraft 93 every second. Surveys were flown at a target ground speed of 204 km/h (110 knots) 94 and a target altitude of 305 m (1000 ft). In 2016, all four survey strata were completed 95 and repeated (see Fig. 1). In 2017, oneDraft survey of Eclipse Sound and Navy Board Inlet 96 were completed while Milne Inlet and Tremblay Sound could not be surveyed due to 97 adverse weather conditions. 98 Infrared technology is a reliable, accurate method to survey ice-associated 99 pinnipeds (Udevitz et al. 2008; Conn et al. 2014; Young et al. In Revision). Therefore, 100 we used a forward-looking infrared camera (FLIR T1030sc) with a 45° lens and a Nikon 101 D810 digital single-lens reflex (DSLR) camera with a 35 mm lens. Thermal infrared 102 imagery (video files) and DSLR photographs were obtained from a strip directly below 103 the aircraft. Photographs were taken at an interval of two seconds, providing overlap 104 between consecutive photos. At the target altitude of 305 m, the strip width covered by 105 both the DSLR camera (resolution of 7360 x 4912 pixels) and the infrared camera 106 (resolution of 1024 x 768 pixels) was 250 m. Observations of ringed seals were 5 https://mc06.manuscriptcentral.com/asopen-pubs Arctic Science Page 6 of 19 107 analysed using strip transect methods and ringed seal density was estimated using the 108 standard ratio estimate (Buckland et al. 2001). 109 Infrared video files were analysed by a single observer using FLIR ResearchIR 110 Max software version 4.30.1.70 (FLIR Systems, Inc., Wilsonville, OR, USA) to detect 111 heat signatures indicative of potential seals. All potential seals observed in the infrared 112 imagery were verified by checking the corresponding images obtained from the Nikon 113 DSLR camera. In this verification process, only the DSLR photographs that 114 corresponded to potential seals in the infrared imagery were analysed. We analyzed a 115 random set of 802 photographs to assess the rate of successful detection of the infrared 116 camera where 33 out of 34 (97%) of the observed seals were also detected in the 117 infrared imagery, offering high confidenceDraft in the infrared imagery method (see Young et 118 al.
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