Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized CLEAN AND IMPROVED COOKING IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA November 2014 Public Disclosure Authorized Second edition A Landscape Report Africa Renewable Energy Access Program (AFREA) Report No. 98664 Copyright © 2014 The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Second printing, July 2015 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank or its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. The material in this publication is copyrighted. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission promptly. Cover photo: © ILF/Deborah Terry/2014 Photo page iv: © Klas Sander Design & layout: Geomark Development Ltd. CLEAN AND IMPROVED COOKING IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA November 2014 Second edition A Landscape Report ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was commissioned by the World Bank’s Energy & Extractives Practice (GEEDR), with the support of the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and the Africa Renewable Energy Access Program (AFREA). The project team comprised Srilata Kammila, Jan Kappen, Dana Rysankova, Besnik Hyseni, and Venkata Ramana Putti. The report relied on inputs from a wide cross-section of World Bank staff, numerous industry experts, manufacturers, distributors, policy makers, and nongovernmental organizations, including interviews with more than one hundred players in the clean and improved cooking energy sector in Africa and globally. Critical advisory/technical inputs have been provided by World Bank colleagues Koffi Ekouevi, Richard Hosier, Klas Sander, Masami Kojima, Laurent Durix, Yabei Zhang, Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee, Mikul Bhatia, Joy Clancy, Christophe de Gouvello, and Sameer Akbar; Lasse Ringius, Luiz Maurer, and Pepukaye Bardouille from IFC; and Radha Muthiah, Sumi Mehta, Leslie Cordes, Ranyee Chiang, and Sean Bartlett from the Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves. The final draft was reviewed by Koffi Ekouevi, Laurent Durix, Masami Kojima, and Klas Sander. Meike Van Ginneken, Practice Manager (West and Central Africa), provided valuable guidance. Dalberg Global Development Advisors (www.dalberg.com) acted as the consultants for the report. Their team was led by Michael Tsan (partner and lead report author) and comprised Gaurav Gupta, Jason Wendle, Paul Collett, Fauzia Jamal, Yaquta Kanchwala, Pallavi Jayannavar, Nicholas Whalley, Kira Intrator, Ibrahima Wade, Kathleen Wade, Ethan Kay, Neha Juneja, and Ankit Mathur. We are thankful to all sector participants and experts who have generously contributed their time to this endeavor. The World Bank team welcomes your support in this effort and encourages you to reach out to the report’s authors with your questions and feedback. iv Clean and Improved Cooking in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Landscape Report CONTENTS Acknowledgments iv Figures 3 Abbreviations 5 Foreword 8 Executive Summary 12 Recommendations 15 Key Facts and Figures 17 1. The Case for Clean Cooking 19 The Harmful Effects of Solid-Fuel Cooking and Traditional Cookstoves 20 The Harm Mitigation Potential of Clean and Improved Cooking Solutions 26 2. Demand for Clean and Improved Cooking Solutions 35 Demand Landscape for Household Cooking Fuels 36 African Cooking Consumer Segmentation 41 Demand for Clean and Improved Cookstoves in SSA: Drivers and Constraints 46 African End-user Preferences for Stove Design and Performance 48 Willingness to Adopt and Pay for Improved and Clean Solutions 50 Affordability and Ability to Pay 52 Addressing Consumers’ Willingness to Pay 53 3. Supply of Clean and Improved Cooking Solutions 59 Penetration of Clean and Improved Stoves in Africa 60 Structure of the Cookstoves Manufacturing Sector 69 Fuel Supply Trends 74 Cookstove Costs and Sector Economics 76 Technology and Business Model Innovation 79 Clean and Improved Cooking Distribution Models 85 4. The Enabling Environment 89 Overview of the Cooking Ecosystem in Sub-Saharan Africa 90 National Programs 93 Challenges to the Enabling Environment 102 Funding for the SSA Cooking Sector 106 5. Looking Forward 109 Recommendations 114 Appendixes 125 Appendix 1: Overview of SSA Cooking Solutions 126 Appendix 2: IWA ISO Standards for Improved and Clean Cookstoves 133 Appendix 3: Methodology for Determining the Opportunity Cost of Cooking with Solid Fuels 134 Appendix 4: Methodology for Calculating SSA Fuel Mix and Fuel Mix Evolution 135 Appendix 5: SSA Fuel Mix—Latest Known, by Country 136 Appendix 6: Methodology for SSA Fuel Market Sizing and Forecast 140 Appendix 7: Methodology for Analyzing Emissions from Solid-Fuel Cooking 142 Appendix 8: Customer Segmentation Methodology 144 Appendix 9: Methodology for Analyzing ICS Penetration 147 Appendix 10: ICS Market Forecast 148 Appendix 11: Range of Performance, by Technology 149 Appendix 12: Fuel Prices by Geography 150 Appendix 13: Consumer Preferences, by Segment 152 Notes 153 Bibliography 168 2 Clean and Improved Cooking in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Landscape Report FIGURES Figure 1: Overview of improved and clean cooking solutions 9 Figure 2: Sub-Saharan Africa mortality and morbidity, by risk factor (2010) 21 Figure 3: Relative incidence of HAP-related morbidity across Sub-Saharan Africa (2010) 21 Figure 4: Share of households cooking outdoors—select SSA countries 22 Figure 5: Cooking and lighting energy as a share of household expenditure 23 Figure 6: Time spent on firewood collection in Africa 23 Figure 7: Contribution of solid-fuel cooking to GHG and black carbon emissions in SSA 24 Figure 8: Biomass pressure map: solid-fuel cooking in Sub-Saharan Africa 25 Figure 9: Firewood collection and cooking time, by gender 26 Figure 10: Stove and fuel costs in Africa (2012) 28 Figure 11: Exposure response curve for particulate matter emissions (PM2.5) 29 Figure 12: Comparative performance of “average” stoves on health and climate impact dimensions 30 Figure 13: Relationship between cooking solution performance (HAP emissions) and cost 32 Figure 14: Solid- and modern-fuel usage, by global region (2010) 36 Figure 15: SSA primary cooking-fuel mix, by subregion and rural/urban area 37 Figure 16: Historical trends and forecast for the global solid-fuel population 39 Figure 17: Historical and projected SSA fuel mix 39 Figure 18: Historical fuel cost for the average household in SSA 40 Figure 19: SSA annual household spending on cooking fuels (US$ billions) 41 Figure 20: Segmentation of the SSA improved and clean cooking consumer 42 Figure 21: Firewood-purchasing households as a share of all firewood users in Sub-Saharan Africa 43 Figure 22: Key demand drivers of, and challenges to, SSA clean and improved cooking solutions 46 Figure 23: Stove design preferences of African consumers 48 Figure 24: Willingness to adopt or pay: examples of nonadopter populations after ICS exposure 51 Figure 25: Baseline technology persistence in African clean and improved stove programs 52 Figure 26: Increasing consumer willingness to pay through exposure 53 Figure 27: Approaches to improving consumers’ ability and willingness to pay 55 Figure 28: SSA population by cooking market segment (primary fuel) 56 Figure 29: Willingness and ability to pay by segment—example of two SSA villages 57 Figure 30: Overview of Africa clean and improved stove penetration (2010–2013) 61 Figure 31: Current Africa sales and forward-looking trends, by stove technology 62 Figure 32: Domestic LPG consumption for top SSA LPG markets 63 Figure 33: Africa briquette and pellet fuel business for household cooking 65 Figure 34: Africa ICS and ACS biomass stove mix (2011–2013) 65 Figure 35: ICS penetration among users of wood and charcoal stoves 67 Figure 36: Penetration of modern fuels and improved cookstoves, by SSA country (2010) 68 Figure 37: Clean and improved cookstove production models in Africa 69 Figure 38: ICS and renewable stove production models range from industrial, to semi-industrial, to artisanal 70 Figure 39: Distribution of Kenya Ceramic Jiko and comparable solutions across Africa 72 Figure 40: Select SSA industrial and semi-industrial clean and improved stove manufacturers (2014) 72 Figure 41: The industrial and semi-industrial ICS sector is highly fragmented, with only a handful of players globally exceeding 50k in sales 73 Figure 42: Fuel supply: challenges for the SSA charcoal supply chain 74 3 Clean and Improved Cooking in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Landscape Report Figure 43: Fuel supply market interventions example—improved charcoal kilns 75 Figure 44: Price and annual average cost for various cooking appliances 76 Figure 45: Detailed cost distribution for artisanal, semi-industrial, and industrial models 77 Figure 46: Impact of portable rocket stove production in Africa 78 Figure 47: Example of shifting natural-draft gasifier manufacturing to Africa semi-industrial production 78 Figure 48: Advanced biomass stove innovation—examples of ACS models for sale in Africa 80 Figure 49: TEG technology—BioLite example 82 Figure 50: Integrated fuel/stove model—the Inyenyeri example 83 Figure 51: Mobile-enabled, off-grid model for an energy utility—the Angaza example 84 Figure 52: Emerging distribution channels for clean cookstoves 85 Figure 53: Overview