Journal of Sports Analytics 1 (2015) 77–82 77 DOI 10.3233/JSA-150009 IOS Press Editors’ introduction: Spygate and sports law analytics Ryan M. Rodenberga,∗ and Elihu D. Feustelb aFlorida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA bFour Monkeys Consulting, South Bend, IN, USA Abstract. The purpose of our editors’ introduction is three-fold. First, we provide a primer on sports law analytics for this special issue of the Journal of Sports Analytics. Second, we briefly summarize the papers accepted for inclusion in the special issue following double-blind peer review. Third, we present original research on one of the most vexing sports law analytics questions in the past decade—Is there evidence that the New England Patriots gained a competitive advantage from recording and analyzing opponents’ signals in contravention of NFL rules? Keywords: Special issue overview, analytics, evidence 1. Sports law analytics primer Federal Rule of Evidence 702, coupled with the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Daubert v. Merrill We define sports law analytics as the application of Dow Pharmaceuticals,2 provides the legal framework parsimonious statistics to real-world legal issues in the for admissible evidence in the quantitative realm. In sports industry. But sports law analytics is no panacea. relevant part, Rule 702 provides: Such work is, more often than not, far from defini- “If scientific, technical, or other specialized knowl- tive. Nevertheless, sports law analytics can be helpful edge will assist the trier of fact to understand the in forensically finding statistical fingerprints in some evidence or to determine a fact in issue, a witness sports legal issues. Sports law analytics can also com- qualified as an expert by knowledge, skill, experience, plement more traditional investigatory techniques such training, or education, may testify thereto in the form as interviews, document review, interrogations, physi- of an opinion or otherwise, if (1) the testimony is based cal evidence collection, subpoenas, and polygraphs. In upon sufficient facts or data, (2) the testimony is the sum, sports law analytics is an additional tool in any product of reliable principles and methods, and (3) the investigator’s (complete) toolkit. witness has applied the principles and methods reliably In a court of law, sports law analytics exists at the to the facts of the case.” intersection of quantitative methods and formal rules of evidence. Indeed, “analytics are proving to be disposi- 2. Special issue overview tive in high-stakes sports industry litigation.”1 Getting sports law analytics into the courtroom can sometimes Sports law analytics also exists outside the court- be tricky, however. room, as each paper in this special issue demonstrates. Matt Frankel wrote a non-quantitative legal essay about ∗Corresponding author: Ryan M. Rodenberg, Florida State Uni- versity, 139 Chieftan Way, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA. Tel.: +1 how sports analytics overlap with intellectual property 850 645 9535; E-mail: [email protected]. law. Frankel touches on the FBI’s probe into allegations 1Ryan M. Rodenberg & Tassos Kaburakis, Sports Law Analytics, ANALYTICS MAGAZINE, May/June 2011, p. 29-32. 2Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, 509 U.S. 579 (1993). ISSN 2215-020X/15/$35.00 © 2015 – IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved This article is published online with Open Access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License. 78 R.M. Rodenberg and E.D. Feustel / Editors’ introduction: Spygate and sports law analytics of possible trade secret theft involving two Major We attempt to answer the question here. We League Baseball teams. Rick Borghesi penned a short emphasize that our indirect detection methods have meta-analysis about point shaving in college basket- limitations.5 Most notably, such methods are not a ball. With recent point shaving revelations involving complete substitute for direct investigatory measures the University of San Diego and the University of by law enforcement or other personnel charged with the Toledo, the topic is germane. duty to monitor. Like other research methods, sports Christian Deutscher analyzed recently-released law analytics inevitably carries a risk of both false pos- NBA referee play-calling data and found no evi- itives and false negatives. Forensic-leaning sports law dence of any late-game bias by the on-court officials. analytics can, however, help shine a light on malfea- Deutscher’s null results are consistent with the NBA’s sance when wrongdoers are trying to avoid detection own internal evaluation of the topic. Jun Woo Kim and conceal their activity.6 In this way, such analytics wrote a short research note about precocity in the NFL, can sometimes be used as a starting point for additional an inquiry that indirectly tested the league’s controver- analysis and decision-making regarding the allocation sial minimum age rule. Former Ohio State University of investigatory resources. running back Maurice Clarett challenged the NFL’s age If the New England Patriots gained a competitive rule in court over a decade ago and one of the issues advantage from the long-running practice of taping before the court was the rationale for the rule. Kim their opponents—an act in clear violation of widely- provides evidence that will likely be relevant the next known NFL rules7 —we assume that one way the time the NFL’s eligibility rule is legally challenged. practice would manifest itself would be in the sec- Three full-length articles round out the special issue. ond half of games, after the opponents’ signal system First, Kevin Hassett, Joseph Sullivan, and Stan Veuger was confirmed by one or more code-breakers, and the completed a textured analysis of football air pressure game leverage was higher. If the spying was helpful, issues at the foundation of on-going litigation per- we reason, then the Patriots would win more games taining to the NFL collective bargaining agreement, than expected due to relatively superior play(-calling) New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, the and audible selection in the second half. players union, and league executive Roger Goodell. To test this hypothesis, we created a halftime “win Second, Michael Schuckers and Steve Argeris wrote predictor” with a linear regression that weighed the about NHL team scouting and return on investment halftime score and the betting spread of the game. This in draft selections. Third, Michael Palmer, M. Quinlan predictor estimated a team’s probability of winning the Duhon, and Brian Soebbing analyzed college deviance game at halftime. We compared the Patriots’ actual and its impact on NFL draft selection. performance versus their model- based expectation for two different eras: (i) the 2000-2001 season through the 2006-2007 season and (ii) the 2007-2008 season 3. Spygate: A case study in sports law analytics through the 2014-2015 season. Resulting prima facie evidence indicated that the Patriots over-performed in 3.1. Introduction both eras, winning roughly 17.46 games above the model’s expectation across the entire time span. The No quasi-legal sports scandal unrelated to dop- results were consistent with an effective clandestine ing has lingered more the past decade than Spygate. recording and decoding signal system of the type the From the scandal’s origins in September 2007 to Patriots are known to have implemented and utilized. recent in-depth investigative reports by both ESPN The The data also suggested that after the Spygate scandal Magazine3 and Sports Illustrated,4 Spygate seemingly won’t go away. The scandal’s central question remains 5Dan Bernhardt & Steven Heston, Point Shaving in College Bas- ripe for sports law analytics—To what extent, if at all, ketball: A Cautionary Tale for Forensic Economics, 48 ECONOMIC did the New England Patriots’ impermissible taping of INQUIRY 14 (2010). opponents’ play calling signals affect game outcomes? 6Eric Zitzewitz, Forensic Economics, 50 JOURNAL OF ECO- NOMIC LITERATURE 731 (2012). 3Don Van Natta Jr & Seth Wickersham, The Patriot Way, ESPN 7In addition to being set forth in the NFL constitution and bylaws, THE MAGAZINE, September 28, 2015, p. 13-38. NFL executive Ray Anderson sent a September 2006 memoran- 4Greg Bishop, Michael Rosenberg & Thayer Evans, Fear and dum to all league general managers and head coaches to remind the Loathing, SPORTS ILLUSTRATED, September 14, 2015, p. 32-39. recipients of the NFL’s rule on the issue. R.M. Rodenberg and E.D. Feustel / Editors’ introduction: Spygate and sports law analytics 79 broke in September 2007, this effect was reduced on second and third round draft picks if the team missed the road for New England, but remained consistent at the playoffs).13 home. Goodell never disclosed the extent of the Patri- ots’ videotaping, but details were revealed in a 3.2. Background and discussion September 28, 2015 ESPN The Magazine article by Don Van Natta and Seth Wickersham. Accord- Under head coach Bill Belichick’s tenure from 2000- ing to Van Natta and Wickersham in ESPN The 01 to 2014-15, the Patriots played 269 games8 and Magazine, “[t]he Patriots created a novel spying sys- accumulated an overall win-loss record of 196-73,9 tem that made the decoding [of opponents’ signals] winning 72.86% of their games. During this time, the more dependable.”14 The reporting of Van Natta and team won the AFC East division twelve times, won Wickersham was consistent with a June 5, 2008 Sen- six AFC titles, and won four Super Bowls.10 This ate floor statement by former U.S. Senator Arlen impressive resume is marred, however, by the Spy- Specter, a Republican from Pennsylvania, who sug- gate revelations and subsequent punishment by the gested that the Patriots’ tape-recording was more NFL. extensive and serious than Goodell publicly indi- On September 9, 2007, NFL security officials caught cated.