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International Aid and Democracy Promotion “International Aid and Democracy Promotion is the all-too-rare example of thoughtful theorizing and testing that is crafted into a powerful, politically meaningful, plausible program for improving political liberalization. Bann Seng Tan has contributed signifi- cantly to the theory of foreign aid; to rigorous empirical tests of his theoretically- developed hypotheses; to nuanced regional and case study analyses that nail down what can work and what cannot work in inducing greater political accountability; and he has done so in a way that opens the path to actual improvement in the well-being of people around the world. International Aid and Democracy Promotion does what the best social science should and can do. It is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand how to promote better governance or, for that matter, better social science.” — Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Julius Silver Professor of Politics at New York University, USA “This is a must-read book for scholars and students of democracy promotion. Bann Seng Tan employs both quantitative and qualitative evidence to test and further develop a political economy model that incorporates geopolitical salience, domestic politics, and the bargaining power of the governments that receive foreign assistance—not just those providing it. The book explains the success and failure of democracy promotion efforts in specific cases, but also suggests how donors can deploy such assistance more effectively.” — Michael J. Tierney, George and Mary Hylton Professor of Government and Director of the William & Mary Global Research Institute, USA “This book offers a refreshing perspective on the international dimension of democ- ratization and delineates the conditions under which democratic aid can, in fact, be effective. Using selectorate theory and informed by strategic leveraging and bargaining processes among donors and recipients, the author combines originally compiled big data analysis with careful case studies from Africa and Asia (as well as wide range of recipient countries such as Myanmar, Fiji, and Egypt). He meticulously demonstrates the importance of the incentives of both the donors and the recipients in this ‘game of democratic aid’. This book will be of great value not only to the foreign aid community but also to politicians and policy makers, who, in this world of persistent democratic backsliding, do not lose hope and aim to navigate effectively so as to ‘nudge’ the auto- crats in the right direction.” — Mine Eder, Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Boğaziçi University, Turkey “This book ties theory and the application of aid in the promotion of democratization to selected country case studies. The topic is both interesting and timely for testing a num- ber of hypotheses in the literature including how such aid favours incumbent regimes and the inability of donors to stay focussed on original goals over time. It is also thoughtful in its reflections on older questions like the linkage between aid and development on the one hand and democratization on the other. This book is a welcome addition to the studies on political development in general and the circumstances surrounding the onset and consolidation of democracy.” — Narayanan Ganesan, Professor of Southeast Asian Politics at Hiroshima Peace Institute at Hiroshima City University, Japan International Aid and Democracy Promotion International Aid and Democracy Promotion investigates the link between foreign aid and the promotion of democracy, using theory, statistical tests, and illustrative case studies. This book challenges the field of development to recognize that democracy promotion is unlike other development goals. With a goal like economic development, the interests of the recipient and the donor coincide; whereas, with democratization, authoritarian recipients have strong reasons to oppose what donors seek. The different motivations of donors and recipients must be considered if democracy aid is to be effective. The author examines how donors exercise their leverage over aid recipients, and, more importantly, why, using selectorate theory to understand the incentives of both aid donors and recipients. International Aid and Democracy Promotion will be of great interest to academics and students of development and democratization, as well as policymakers with authority over foreign aid allocation. Bann Seng Tan is Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Ashoka University, India. Democratization Studies (Formerly Democratization Studies, Frank Cass) Democratization Studies combines theoretical and comparative studies with detailed analyses of issues central to democratic progress and its performance, all over the world. The books in this series aim to encourage debate on the many aspects of democ- ratization that are of interest to policy-makers, administrators and journalists, aid and development personnel, as well as to all those involved in education. The Legitimacy of Citizen-led Deliberative Democracy The G1000 in Belgium Didier Caluwaerts and Min Reuchamps Democracy Assistance Bypassing Governments in Recipient Countries Supporting the “Next Generation” Paulina Pospieszna Transatlantic Democracy Assistance Promoting Different Models of Democracy Jan Hornat Innovations, Reinvented Politics and Representative Democracy Edited by Agnès Alexandre-Collier, Alexandra Goujon and Guillaume Gourgues Nationalism, Referendums and Democracy Voting on Ethnic Issues and Independence 2nd edition Edited by Matt Qvortrup International Aid and Democracy Promotion Liberalization at the Margins Bann Seng Tan For more information about this series, please visit: www.routledge.com/ Democratization-Studies/book-series/DS International Aid and Democracy Promotion Liberalization at the Margins Bann Seng Tan First published 2021 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2021 Bann Seng Tan The right of Bann Seng Tan to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for this book has been requested ISBN: 978-0-367-50585-1 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-003-05043-8 (ebk) Typeset in Times New Roman by Apex CoVantage, LLC To Unice Soh Brief table of contents List of figures xiv List of tables xv Preface xvi Acknowledgments xvii 1 Looking for democracy in all the wrong places 1 2 The big picture 26 3 The components of salience 49 4 The regional picture 68 5 Myanmar and donor switching 93 6 Egypt and Fiji 122 7 No golden age, no silver bullet 149 Index 172 Detailed table of contents List of figures xiv List of tables xv Preface xvi Acknowledgments xvii 1 Looking for democracy in all the wrong places 1 Introduction 1 The reaction of Western donors 3 The first step towards resolution 4 The politics of democracy aid 7 Giving directly to civil society 10 Aid fungibility and recipient survival 12 Bargaining between donors and recipients 15 Caveats 18 The rest of the way 20 2 The big picture 26 Introduction 26 Data 27 Key variables 29 Theoretical expectations 38 Results 43 Conclusion 45 3 The components of salience 49 Introduction 49 Data, variables, and method 51 Key variables 51 Theoretical expectations 57 Results 61 Conclusion 65 xii Detailed table of contents 4 The regional picture 68 Introduction 68 The African context 70 The Asian context 74 Data and methods 81 Key variables 82 Theoretical expectations 83 Results 84 Conclusion 88 5 Myanmar and donor switching 93 Introduction 93 What is in a name? 96 Salience of Myanmar 97 Burmese praetorian politics and its concomitant foreign policy 101 A series of political change 104 The impact of external actors 106 The reactions of external actors to Burmese reforms 110 Alternative accounts of the Burmese reforms 111 On democratization 112 On sanctions 113 The price of political change 115 Conclusion 117 6 Egypt and Fiji 122 Introduction 122 Theoretical expectations 123 Salience of the recipients 124 Case study of Egypt’s aid relations 129 The nature of the US-Egypt relations during Mubarak’s reign 129 The donor pressure that failed 131 The aid conditionality that worked 135 Case study of Fiji’s aid relations 137 The nature of Fijian politics 137 The international reaction to the 2006 coup 138 The Fijian response and Chinese Aid 141 Conclusion 144 Detailed table of contents xiii 7 No golden age, no silver bullet 149 Introduction 149 What is to be done? 150 What we now know 150 For the modal policymaker 151 The autocrats’ response 153 Research overlaps and future research 156 Other types of conditionalities 157 Democracy diffusion, leverage and linkages 158 Securitization of external democracy promotion 159 The tradeoffs we make 160 Feckless liberal democracies 160 Resurgent authoritarianism 161 No golden age 163 No silver bullet 165 Index 172 Figures 4.1 Average Polity Scores
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