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Development and Globalization: Facts and Figures 2008 DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBALIZATION: Facts and Figures 2008 UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBALIZATION: Facts and Figures 2008 UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT UNITED NATIONS New York and Geneva, 2008 NOTE Development and Globalization: Facts and Figures was prepared under the auspices of UNCTAD’s Division on Globalization and Development Strategies, in collaboration with all UNCTAD divisions. Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures. Mention of such a symbol indicates a reference to a United Nations document. General disclaimer The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Where the designation “country or area” appears, it covers countries, territories, cities and areas. The designations “developed”, “in transition” and “developing” are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgement about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process. Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgement is requested, together with a reference to the document number. A copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint should be sent to the UNCTAD secretariat. UNCTAD/GDS/CSIR/2007/1 UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. E.07.II.D.20 ISBN 978-92-1-112730-0 Copyright © United Nations, 2008 All rights reserved ii FOREWORD This second issue of UNCTAD’s “Development and Globalization: Facts and Figures” is more than an update of the 2004 edition. With economic globalization challenging much of our traditional wisdom, the 2008 edition is meant to increase the analytical emphasis and to offer some explanation for new and emerging economic trends. In recent years it is remarkable how quick and how fundamental the role of developing economies in the global economy has changed. The biggest and the fastest-growing developing countries nowadays are considered to stabilize the world economy due to their dynamism and their openness. Developing countries accounted for 37 per cent of world merchandise exports in 2006 on a rising trend. Moreover, as many developing countries have achieved current account surpluses they have become important providers of capital for the rest of the world. As I said in my report to UNCTAD XII, which will take place in Accra in spring 2008: A “second generation” of globalization is thus emerging. A distinctive characteristic of this phase of globalization is economic multipolarity, in which the South plays a significant role. Today, no negotiation of an international economic agreement is conceivable without the presence of China, India, Brazil and South Africa at the table. The new economic weight of some developing countries creates significant opportunities for the rest of the developing world. It also highlights the need for policy diversity rather than uniformity. The brief synopsis of data and information covered by this new volume of Development and Globalization: Facts and Figures very well illustrates UNCTAD`s independent research in the areas of its core mandate, namely the integrated treatment of trade, development and interrelated issues in the areas of finance, technology, investment and sustainable development, and its endeavours in the area of statistics. It is my hope that this snapshot of globalization will increase readers’ desire TO LEARN MORE about the topics tackled by the Trade and Development Report and the other major publications of UNCTAD. Supachai Panitchpakdi Secretary-General of UNCTAD iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND EXPLANATORY NOTES Development and Globalization: Facts and Figures 2008 was jointly prepared by UNCTAD’s Division on Globalization and Development Strategies; Division on Investment, Technology and Enterprise Development; and Division on International Trade in Goods and Services, and Commodities. The Central Statistics and Information Retrieval Branch ensured the general coordination. Numerous international organizations contributed to Development and Globalization: Facts and Figures 2008, especially by providing statistical data and other information. Their cooperation is gratefully acknowledged. Explanations and symbols: LBecause of rounding, details and percentages in tables do not necessarily add up to totals. L“Dollars” and “$” refer to United States dollars. LA zero (0) means that the amount is nil or negligible. LThe symbol underscore (_) indicates that the item is not applicable. LTwo dots (..) indicate that the data are not available or are not separately reported. LUse of a hyphen (-) between years (e.g. 1965-1970) signifies the full period involved, including the initial and final years. iv CONTENTS Note ii Foreword iii Acknowledgements and explanatory notes iv Contents v 1 Global growth and composition of demand 1 1.1 Growth trends 2 1.2 Gross domestic product by economic activity and expenditure 4 1.3 Growth and trade balance 6 1.4 Primary commodity prices 8 1.5 Terms of trade and impact on gross national income 10 2 Payments balances and determinants 12 2.1 Current account balance 14 2.2 Capital flows 16 2.3 Inflation rates and interest rates 18 2.4 Unit labour costs 20 2.5 Nominal exchange rates 22 2.6 Competitiveness and real effective exchange rates 24 3 External resources 26 3.1 Foreign direct investment trends 28 3.2 Industrial pattern of foreign direct investment 30 3.3 Official development assistance and debt relief 32 3.4 Migrants’ remittances 34 3.5 External debt trends 36 3.6 External debt indicators 38 3.7 International reserves 40 4 International trade in merchandise and services 42 4.1 Geography of merchandise trade 44 4.2 South-South merchandise trade 46 4.3 Trade of primary commodities 48 4.4 Primary commodity dependence 50 4.5 Market access 52 4.6 Patterns in services trade of developing countries 54 4.7 Services trade performances of developing countries by category of services 56 5 Population 58 5.1 Population and poverty 60 5.2 Employment 62 Economies of the world 66 Definitions 68 Abbreviations 74 v 1 GLOBAL GROWTH AND COMPOSITION OF DEMAND 1.1 Growth trends 1.2 Gross domestic product by economic activity and expenditure 1.3 Growth and trade balance 1.4 Primary commodity prices 1.5 Terms of trade and impact on gross national income 1.1 GROWTH TRENDS Overview Gross domestic product (GDP) is the key economic measured by per capita GDP, they recuperated their 1990 indicator: its growth rate in real terms over time indicates standard of living only in 2006. an economic expansion or recession, while its (per Since 2002, both transition and developing economies capita) level gives a rough indication of the average living posted a strong and broad-based economic expansion, standard. Moreover, the comparison of the evolution of including most of the least developed countries (LDCs). real GDP in different regions is an important measure This has meant a notable improvement in their catch-up of convergent or divergent trends, for example, for the efforts with developed countries. Since 2003, per capita catching up or falling behind of developing countries. GDP has been growing in developing and transition Regarding catching-up processes of developing countries, economies at an annual rate of 5.1 and 7.5 per cent, diverging trends dominated for more than two decades respectively, compared to 2.0 per cent in developed (between 1980 and 2002). During that period, per capita economies. All developing regions have benefited from GDP growth in developing countries of Africa, the Americas, this recovery, although at different rates: between 2003 Western Asia and Oceania (and transition economies and 2007, GDP per capita expanded at 6.2 per cent in later) was very slow or even negative, thereby widening Asia, 3.7 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean and the income gap with developed economies. Only Eastern, 3.0 per cent in Africa. Southern and South-Eastern Asia could significantly However, the bulk of global income, as expressed diminish the gap with developed economies in terms of by world GDP, remains in the hands of the developed Global growth and composition of demand per capita GDP in the last 20 years of the twentieth century. countries. With only 16 per cent of world’s population, Per capita real GDP in that region almost tripled between developed countries generated 73 per cent of world’s 1980 and 2007 (although from very low levels), while it nominal GDP in 2006, compared to 80 per cent in 1992. stagnated in other developing regions. In Latin America As a result, the difference in per capita income between and Western Asia, economic growth was also unstable, developed countries on one side and developing and with frequent and deep economic recessions (1981-1989 transition economies on the other remains huge. This gap and 1998-2002) and rather short and shallow recoveries has diminished slightly in relative terms: the ratio between (1991-1997). Transition economies in Eastern Europe the per capita GDP in developed and developing countries suffered a major economic contraction after 1990. In passed from 20.4 times in 1990 to 16.1 times in 2006; 1999, they resumed growth and meanwhile became the however, it has widened in absolute terms, from $20 000 group with the most rapid growth in the world. But, as to $26 000 in current dollars. TO LEARN MORE UNCTAD presents in its yearly Trade and Development Report the evolution of GDP for different regions. A more detailed analysis of GDP growth and economic forecasts may be found in the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP), a joint publication by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), UNCTAD and the United Nations Regional Commissions.
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