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Nato Decision-Making in the Age of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence

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Nato Decision-Making in the Age of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence NATO DECISION-MAKING IN THE AGE OF BIG DATA AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE EDITED BY SONIA LUCARELLI ALESSANDRO MARRONE FRANCESCO N. MORO (Photo credit: European Pressphoto Agency, Peter Steffen) 1 NATO DECISION-MAKING IN THE AGE OF BIG DATA AND ARITFICAL INTELLIGENCE NATO DECISION-MAKING IN THE AGE OF BIG DATA AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This publication is the result of the Conference “NATO Decision-making: promises and perils of the Big Data age”, organized by NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT), the University of Bologna and Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) of Rome. The Conference, held online on 17th November 2020, is part of a long-term cooperation among the three institutions and it represents the seventh iteration of ACT’s Academic Conference series. The success of the event was due to the joint efforts of the three institutions, and the editors want to acknowledge the ACT’s Academic Outreach Team, in particular Mr. Dick Bedford and Lt. Col. Romano dell’Aere, as well as Karolina Muti and Francesca Paganucci from IAI. Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within this report are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of ACT, University of Bologna, IAI, or any other agency of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. NATO ALLIED COMMAND TRANSFORMATION UNIVERSITÀ DI BOLOGNA ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI “NATO Decision-Making in the Age of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence” Editors: Sonia Lucarelli; Alessandro Marrone; and Francesco Niccolò Moro Researcher: Karolina Muti © 2021 NATO HQ - Boulevard Léopold III, 1110 Brussels – Belgium ISBN: 978-1-95445-00-0 2 NATO DECISION-MAKING IN THE AGE OF BIG DATA AND ARITFICAL INTELLIGENCE 3 NATO DECISION-MAKING IN THE AGE OF BIG DATA AND ARITFICAL INTELLIGENCE Index Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 7 Technological Changes and a Transformed International Security Environment ............................. 10 Sonia Lucarelli, Alessandro Marrone and Francesco N. Moro WORKING GROUP I Opportunities and Challenges in the Management and Governance of Big Data ............................ 16 George Christou Digitalization in Mission Command and Control: Fragmenting Coordination in Military Operations ............................................................................................................................................................ 28 Paolo Spagnoletti & Andrea Salvi Working Group 1 Report Data and Decision-Making: Changes, Risks and Opportunities ......................................................... 38 Stefano Costalli WORKING GROUP II Hybrid Threats to Allied Decision-Making ......................................................................................... 44 Hanna Smith Hybrid Threats to Allied Decision-Making: Merging Whack-A-Troll Tactics with Whole-Of-Society Defense Concepts .............................................................................................................................. 57 Franz-Stefan Gady Working Group 2 Report Hybrid Threats to Allied Decision-Making ......................................................................................... 67 Andrea Locatelli 4 NATO DECISION-MAKING IN THE AGE OF BIG DATA AND ARITFICAL INTELLIGENCE WORKING GROUP III NATO and Artificial Intelligence: the Role of Public-Private Sector Collaboration ............................ 74 Sophie-Charlotte Fischer The NATO Alliance and the Challenges of Artificial Intelligence Adoption ....................................... 84 Edward Hunter Christie Working Group 3 Report NATO, Big Data and Automation: Decisions And Consensus............................................................. 94 Andrea Gilli Acronym list ....................................................................................................................................... 98 5 NATO DECISION-MAKING IN THE AGE OF BIG DATA AND ARITFICAL INTELLIGENCE (Photo credit: European Pressphoto Agency, ANSA) 6 NATO DECISION-MAKING IN THE AGE OF BIG DATA AND ARITFICAL INTELLIGENCE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Digital revolution has substantially transformed the world we live in, providing great opportunities but also making societies more vulnerable. Technology makes external interferences cheaper, faster and all- encompassing: citizens can potentially become direct targets of information warfare, all members of a society can be part of conflicts one way or another. From advanced weaponry to command and control, most security-related domains are undergoing deep transformations as data availability and transmission increase exponentially. In this context, three interconnected aspects are explore through this publication with a view to the Alliance’s evolution: Big Data and organizational challenges for NATO; hybrid threats to Allies’ decision- making; the adoption of AI in the defense domain and NATO’s role. Big Data and Organizational Challenges for NATO. Basing decisions on a much larger amount of information than was previously possible could lead to a real revolution in the decision-making processes of complex organizations, especially because this information would concern different dimensions of reality and it would be constantly updated. Beside the huge quantity of information available, the high speed at which the data are generated and need to be processed is another defining factor of Big Data. Also, they will typically be acquired from diverse sources and their trustworthiness has to be carefully evaluated. Finally, any data can have different value in different phases of the decision-making process. All these features impose specific requirements on organizations that aim at using Big Data to reduce the uncertainty in which they operate. For instance, the huge volume of data compels to acquire new data storage technologies, while the high speed demands new processing tools and the variable trustworthiness and value force organizations to elaborate new methods of analysis. Accordingly, any actor that seeks to exploit Big Data should have clear goals and a well-defined strategy to delineate and implement its specific objectives. A key issue with Big Data is providing decision makers with data that are truly relevant for their purposes, and not simply interesting. Chief data officers and senior data-related leadership positions will acquire a crucial importance in the analysis of information and in the actual decision-making process, but these positions require a special mix of talent and tools that are currently scarce in many large organizations, especially in the public sector and even more in the military one. Another key issue lies in the emerging tension between centralization and decentralization of the decision- making process of organizations that are introducing Big Data analysis in their work. Paradoxically, while Big Data should promote widespread responsibility and tactical awareness, at the moment advanced digitalization seems to be linked to clear centripetal forces in large organizations. The centripetal tendency leads towards the de-responsibilization of the lower ranks and to a progressive loss of practice in choosing. Thus, it would be advisable to integrate Big Data in the Alliance’s decision-making favoring diffused ownership and devising different tools for different branches of the organization, based on their specificities. It would also be helpful to create well-designed and reliable evaluation procedures to measure the effectiveness of organizational innovations as well as of the execution of the new decision-making processes. In particular, identifying the initial failures is especially important, to learn from them and avoid structural problems. 7 NATO DECISION-MAKING IN THE AGE OF BIG DATA AND ARITFICAL INTELLIGENCE Hybrid Threats to Allies’ Decision-Making. Hybrid threats is a broad category encompassing a variety of actors, actions and targets. As for actors, due to their actual capabilities, intentions and recent track records, China and Russia can be identified as the most gathering threats. Concerning actions, information is key under several respects. It refers to Big Data and AI taken together, as the latter entails the use of algorithms to learn from the former with a view to exploit the target’s vulnerabilities. Digital connections are the underlying infrastructure used to perpetrate hybrid threats in the information domain. Western societies rely on virtual world platforms that can be targeted by potential attackers. Since global networks defy borders and limit state jurisdiction, they are harder to defend and allow potential attackers to act below the threshold of detection and attribution. Hybrid threats also benefit from the unprecedent speed and scope of information. This is not new in principle, but it has reached game- changing levels. On the one hand, managing this massive flow of information is just prohibitive for NATO and its member states; on the other hand, high speed of circulation translates into increased operational tempo. Hybrid threats may take aim at a variety of targets, yet particularly concerning are offensive actions that might lead to societal polarization, elite disagreement and biased perceptions of foreign actors. These actions have the potential to affect decision-making at different levels, even undermining democratic states’ institutions. Accordingly, these hybrid threats could undermine decision-making process of Allies
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