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Análise De Empresas 16/01/2019

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Análise De Empresas 16/01/2019 Análise de Empresas 16/01/2019 Valor de ADTV 2 Último Papel e Celulose: Pronto para a próxima etapa? Empresa Mercado¹ 3 meses Preço Suzano é a nossa top pick KLBN11 23.191 91,0 18,37 SUZB3 43.700 219,0 44,16 •Acreditamos que os preços da celulose caíram e esperamos uma ¹ R$ milhões; ² Volume médio diário R$ (milhões) recuperação de US$ 100/ton. até o final do ano, quando o estoque excedente na cadeia deve começar a ser absorvido a partir de fevereiro. Empresa Recomendação Preço-Alvo KLBN11 C OMPRA 25,00 • Principais temas para 2019: o novo mundo da celulose “consolidada”, as SUZB3 COMPRA 58,00 iniciativas de crescimento na América Latina, o reequilíbrio do mercado de papel necessário, especialmente na Europa e na China. Papel e Celulose • Suzano é a nossa top pick (Compra, R$ 58 de preço-alvo), seguida pela Tiago Lofiego* Klabin (Compra, R$ 25 de preço-alvo). José Cataldo +55 11 2178-5478 [email protected] Fundamentos da celulose estruturalmente saudáveis. A Suzano é a nossa melhor escolha no setor. Mantemos nossa visão de que o mercado de celulose terá *Analista de valores mobiliários credenciado responsável pelas declarações nos termos do Art. 21 da um ótimo desempenho nos próximos 2-3 anos. O crescimento da demanda, embora ICVM 598/18. mais suave, ainda será saudável, particularmente na Ásia. O crescimento da oferta é praticamente inexistente. A consolidação e a disciplina de fornecimento desempenharão um papel importante em 2019. Nosso novo modelo de oferta & demanda aponta para uma oferta insuficiente de 650 mil toneladas e 1,2 milhão de toneladas em 2019/2020. Os custos da madeira permanecerão pressionados por produtores não integrados, devido à falta de oferta. As conversões para a celulose solúvel continuarão a reduzir a oferta de celulose em papel do mercado. Acreditamos que a celulose de fibra curta atingiu cerca de US$ 640/ton. na China e deve começar a recuperação a partir de março, chegando a US$ 750/ ton. no final do ano, com média de US$ 700/ ton. em 2019 e US$ 780/ ton. em 2020. A potencial resolução da guerra comercial EUA/China em 1º de março poderia ser um catalisador significativo. Ajustamos nossos preços-alvos, impulsionados pelas premissas cambiais e pelo menor preço de celulose. A esperada recuperação da demanda após o Ano Novo Chinês poderá impulsionar a recuperação dos preços de celulose . Temos destacado recentemente que: (i) sim, o crescimento da demanda parece estar diminuindo, mas ainda há períodos de que se mostra robusto; (ii) a tensão comercial dos EUA/China criou um excesso de estoque de curto prazo em toda a cadeia, o que poderia reduzir os preços (como de fato ocorreu) e (iii) o sentimento parecia ser excessivamente negativo, especialmente se contrastado com dados reais. Esperamos que os fabricantes de papel chineses recomponham os estoques de celulose após negociações exaustivas de dois meses, com os principais fornecedores que, juntamente com a recuperação da demanda sazonal, devem ajudar a reequilibrar o mercado de celulose. ROE P/L EV/EBITDA Div. Yield Empresas 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 KLBN11 12% 30% 27,6 10,9 8,6 7,4 3,9% 3,1% SUZB3 25% 27% 13,2 9,8 7,2 6,4 0,9% 1,0% Este relatório é uma versão em português do relatório institucional divulgado pelo Banco Bradesco BBI em 15 /01/2019 . BRADESCO CORRETORA SAC - Alô Bradesco: 0800 704 838 | Ouvidoria: 0800 727 9933 Deficiênte Auditivo / Fala: 0800 772 0099 16/01/2019 Suzano (Compra, preço-alvo R$ 58/ação): Nossa top pick para 2019. Vemos frentes de geração de valor para a Suzano: (i) sinergias com a Fibria, que estimamos em R$ 15 bilhões; (ii) projetos de crescimento: calculamos a expansão de Três Lagoas para gerar US$ 1,0-1,5 bilhões em VPL - Valor presente líquido; (iii) reavaliação, já que os investidores reconhecem que a "Nova Suzano" deve ser negociada em múltiplos mais altos (acreditamos 7,5x EBITDA normalizado versus 5,7x atualmente), devido ao maior ROIC combinado, maior fluxo de dividendos e menor volatilidade de preço de celulose. Klabin (Compra, Preço- alvo R$ 25/Unit): de volta à faixa de crescimento. Continuamos a gostar da flexibilidade operacional da Klabin no negócio de embalagens, enquanto a divisão de celulose deve se beneficiar de fortes preços de celulose em 2019. O anúncio potencial de projetos de alto retorno de crescimento colocará a empresa de volta em telas de investidores de longo prazo. Revisão de Estimativas para Suzano: Suzano Atual Anterior D (%) R$ milhões 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 Receita Líquida 32.564 31.281 34.180 34.164 34.904 37.283 -4,7% -10,4% -8,3% Ebitda ajustado 16.865 16.897 19.859 18.030 18.728 21.453 -6,5% -9,8% -7,4% Margem Ebitda 52,0% 54,0% 58,0% 53,0% 54,0% 58,0% -1,0 p.p. 0,4 p.p. 0,6 p.p. Lucro Líquido 3.746 10.864 9.164 9.262 7.972 10.307 -59,6% 36,3% -11,1% Dívida Líquida 23.852 39.051 26.906 14.606 35.548 21.574 63,3% 9,9% 24,7% Dívida Líquida/Ebitda (x) 1,4 2,3 1,4 0,8 1,9 1,0 74,6% 21,8% 34,7% Câmbio - médio (R$/US$) 3,65 3,70 3,54 3,64 3,52 3,61 0,3% 5,1% -1,7% Preço-Alvo R$ 58,00 R$ 60,00 - Recomendação Compra Compra - Fonte: Suzano e Bradesco BBI Revisão de Estimativas para Klabin: Klabin Atual Anterior D (%) R$ milhões 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 Receita Líquida 9.997 10.779 11.486 9.984 10.729 11.621 0,1% 0,5% -1,2% Ebitda ajustado 4.080 4.235 4.768 4.085 4.358 4.970 -0,1% -2,8% -4,1% Margem Ebitda 41,0% 39,0% 42,0% 41,0% 41,0% 43,0% -0,1 p.p. -1,3 p.p. -1,3 p.p. Lucro Líquido 127 2.506 2.041 1.043 1.548 2.150 -87,8% 61,9% -5,0% Dívida Líquida 12.400 9.300 7.616 11.379 9.874 8.716 9,0% -5,8% -6,8% Dívida Líquida/Ebitda (x) 3,0 2,2 1,6 2,8 2,3 1,6 9,1% -3,1% -2,9% Câmbio - médio (R$/US$) 3,65 3,70 3,54 3,64 3,52 3,61 0,3% 5,1% -1,7% Preço-Alvo R$ 25,00 R$ 26,00 - Recomendação Compra Compra - Fonte: Suzano e Bradesco BBI BRADESCO CORRETORA SAC - Alô Bradesco: 0800 704 838 | Ouvidoria: 0800 727 9933 Deficiênte Auditivo / Fala: 0800 772 0099 www.bradescocorretora.com.br 16/01/2019 Este relatório foi preparado pelas equipes de análise de investimentos da Ágora Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários S.A. (“Ágora”) bem como da Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários (“Bradesco Corretora”), sociedades controladas pelo Banco Bradesco BBI S.A. (“BBI”). O presente relatório se destina ao uso exclusivo do destinatário, não podendo ser, no todo ou em parte, copiado, reproduzido ou distribuído a qualquer pessoa sem a expressa autorização da Ágora e da Bradesco Corretora. Este relatório é distribuído somente com o objetivo de prover informações e não representa uma oferta de compra e venda ou solicitação de compra e venda de qualquer instrumento financeiro. As informações contidas neste relatório são consideradas confiáveis na data de sua publicação. Entretanto, as informações aqui contidas não representam por parte da Ágora ou da Bradesco Corretora garantia de exatidão dos dados factuais utilizados. As opiniões, estimativas, projeções e premissas relevantes contidas neste relatório são baseadas em julgamento do(s) analista(s) de investimento envolvido(s) na sua elaboração (“analistas de investimento”) e são, portanto, sujeitas a modificações sem aviso prévio em decorrência de alterações nas condições de mercado. Declarações dos analistas de investimento envolvidos na elaboração deste relatório nos termos do art. 21 da Instrução CVM 598/18: O(s) analista(s) de investimento declara(m) que as opiniões contidas neste relatório refletem exclusivamente suas opiniões pessoais sobre a companhia e seus valores mobiliários e foram elaboradas de forma independente e autônoma, inclusive em relação à Ágora, à Bradesco Corretora, ao BBI e demais empresas do Grupo Bradesco. A remuneração do(s) analista(s) de investimento está, direta ou indiretamente, influenciada pelo resultado proveniente dos negócios e operações financeiras realizadas pela Ágora, Bradesco Corretora e BBI. Declarações nos termos do art. 22 da Instrução CVM 598: O Banco Bradesco S.A. tem participação acionária indireta, por meio de suas subsidiárias, acima de 5% nas empreS.A.s Cielo S.A. e Fleury S.A.. A BRADESPAR S.A., cujo grupo controlador é composto pelos mesmos acionistas que controlam o Bradesco, tem participação acima de 5% na VALE S.A.. Ágora, Bradesco Corretora, Bradesco BBI e demais empresas do grupo Bradesco têm interesses financeiros e comerciais relevantes em relação ao emissor ou aos valores mobiliários objeto de análise. O Bradesco BBI está participando como coordenador na oferta pública de distribuição da Companhia Brasileira de Distribuição. Nos últimos 12 meses, o Bradesco BBI participou como coordenador nas ofertas públicas de distribuição de títulos e valores mobiliários das companhias: Anima Holding S.A., Azul S.A., BR Malls Participações S.A., Banco Inter S.A., BK Brasil Operação e Assessoria a Restaurantes S.A., Camil Alimentos S.A., CCR S.A., Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL, Companhia de Locação das Américas, Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional - CSN, CSHG Logística - Fundo de Investimento Imobiliário - FII, Companhia de Transmissão de Energia Elétrica Paulista - CTEEP, CVC Brasil Operadora e Agência de Viagens S.A., Ecorodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A., Eletropaulo Metropolitana Eletricidade de São Paulo S.A., Energisa S.A., Eneva S.A., Engie Brasil Energia S.A., Fleury S.A., Gol Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A., Iochpe Maxion S.A., JSL S.A., Localiza Rent a Car S.A., Loma Negra, Magazine Luiza S.A., Lojas Marisa S.A., Minerva S.A., Movida S.A., MRV Engenharia e Participações S.A., Multiplan Empreendimentos Imobiliários S.A., Natura Cosméticos S.A., Notre Dame Intermédica Participações S.A., Pagseguro Digital LTD, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A.
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