Emerging Markets Monthly Highlights
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Credit Research Economic Research Emerging Markets Jose Perez Gorozpe Tatiana Lysenko Xu Han Elijah Oliveros Monthly Highlights Sudeep Kesh Vishrut Rana Vincent Conti A Brighter 2021, From Afar Dec. 17, 2020 Contents Key Takeaways Economic And Credit Conditions Highlights Macro-Credit Dashboards GDP Summary Monetary Policy/FX Financing Conditions Highlights Ratings Summary S&P Global Ratings believes there remains a high degree of uncertainty about the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic. Reports that at least one experimental vaccine is highly effective and might gain initial approval by the end of the year are promising, but this is merely the first step toward a return to social and economic normality; equally critical is the widespread availability of effective immunization, which could come by the middle of next year. We use this assumption in assessing the economic and credit implications associated with the pandemic (see our research here: www.spglobal.com/ratin gs). As the situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates accordingly. 2 Key Takeaways Still a long path to the pre-pandemic GDP levels.Despite a strong third-quarter economic rebound across most -pandemic GDP levels, except for China and Turkey. The rising COVID-19 cases in many EM economies are undermining mobility, despite the absence of official restrictions. Surging cases in many developed economies, along with additional social-distancing measures, are holding back global economic activity over the short run. Recovery prospects look brighter for 2021, but the sequence of the recovery matters. The recent endorsement of the COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. and other countries supports a potentially faster economic recovery in 2021. However, the vaccine still needs to be effectively distributed and immunization needs to take place before the pandemic fades. Consequently, the short-term outlook still looks challenging, especially for those EM economies where cases are surging again. The recent slowdown in economic activity will probably extend into the first quarter of 2021. This sequence is especially stressful for those governments facing the rising debt and fiscal pressures and for corporations with depressed revenues and limited room to further cut expenses. Financing conditions continue improving driven by investors' strong appetite for EM assets amid low interest rates in key developed markets and positive news about the COVID-19 vaccine. More recently, financing conditions for lower rated corporations to access the markets have improved despite persistent revenue challenges. Consequently, issuers with lower credit quality could consider distressed debt exchanges, leading to increasing defaults among lower rating categories. While a debt exchange might solve immediate liquidity hardships, their solvency remains at risk as the pandemic- 3 New COVID-19 Cases Surging Again In Several Countries New Daily Reported COVID-19 Cases Per Million Population (7-Day Moving Average) End-June End-July End-August End-September End-October End-November Several countries are seeing record-high numbers of new COVID-19 cases. Turkey 500 stands out, with cases among the highest in 450 per capita terms. Russia, Turkey, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico have also experienced 400 a large uptick in new cases in the last month. 350 300 But most governments are resisting imposing new lockdowns. The unpopularity 250 of new mobility restrictions is discouraging 200 most governments in EMs to announce new lockdown measures. However, some 150 governments have postponed the relaxation 100 of lockdowns. Poland stands out as one of the only EMs that has tightened its lockdown 50 measures in the past month. Cases in Poland 0 have started to come down since those new measures were put in place. India Chile Brazil Turkey Russia Poland Mexico C Median Thailand Malaysia Colombia Argentina Indonesia Philipines South Africa South Saudi Arabia Saudi Notes: We use 2019 population estimates to calculate per capita numbers. EM Median refers to 16 EMs excluding China. Source: Bloomberg, Oxford Economics, and S&P Global Ratings. 4 Mobility Deteriorated In Countries With Rising Cases Mobility Index, Seven-Day Moving Average, End Of Period (Deviation From Pre- Pandemic Levels) Q1 Q2 Q3 Early-December 0 Signs of weakness in Q4 for several economies. Turkey, Russia, Poland, and -10 Malaysia experienced a setback in mobility this month, compared with the end of the -20 third quarter. These countries also experienced a significant uptick in new (%) -30 COVID-19 cases this quarter. Given the absence of new lockdown measures in most -40 cases (except for Poland), suggests that -50 populations are voluntarily cautious by staying at home, a behavior that could -60 -70 -80 -90 C Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia India Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Poland Russia Saudi South Africa Thailand Turkey EM Median Arabia Note: The index is an equally-weighted index of retail and recreation, transit, and workplaces. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the five-week period Jan. 3 Feb. 6, 2020. Note: Early-December is as of the 7th. Source: Google LLC "Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports", S&P Global Ratings. 5 Still A Long Path To Pre-Pandemic GDP Levels In Many Cases GDP Gap As A Share Of The Pre-Pandemic Level (Q4 2019), As Of Q3 2020 Solid rebound in the third quarter.The median EM saw q/q GDP growth of 8% in Q3, compared 6 with the 13.5% contraction in Q2.Growth rates 4 varied widely across countries. Key factors for 2 this were the following: the magnitude of the drop in activity in Q2 (generally the economies 0 with severe GDP contraction saw higher growth (2) rates);the scale and effectiveness of policy (%) (4) support (ample stimulus programs helped (6) domestic demand to rebound in Brazil and (8) Turkey); different contributions from net (10) exports,reflecting different trade exposures, (12) but also variations in imports. (14) Still a long road to recovery to pre-pandemic (16) GDP levels. The median EM was still 6% below the pre-pandemic GDP level at the end of Q3. India Chile China Brazil Turkey Russia Poland Mexico Median Thailand Malaysia Colombia Argentina Indonesia measure as well. China and Turkey were above C Philippines South Africa South their pre-pandemic levels. Latin America (except for Brazil) was still 8%-10% below that Note: Median refers to median of all countries inthe chart. For China, India, and Indonesia there is no official seasonally-adjusted time series, therefore we just applied a standard ARIMA X13 method to the non-seasonally-adjusted series. For Argentina, we used the monthly proxy to level, and South Africa is in the middle of the calculate Q3 GDP growth. Source: Haver Analytics. Copyright © 2020 by Standard & Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. pack. 6 EM FX Is Having A Good Year-End Exchange Rate Performance Versus The U.S. Dollar YTD Since end-Q3 ZAR Most EM currencies appreciated in COP November. Capital inflows, and in some MXN cases, rising prices for export commodities BRL propelled EM currencies in the past month. CLP THB evident in capital flows data. EM assets IDR attracted $76.5 billion worth of capital PLN inflows in November, according to the RUB Institute of International Finance estimates, CNY with large inflows into both debt and equity. MYR PHP INR SAR TRY ARS -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Note: Since end-Q3 is as of December 9. Source: S&P Global Ratings and Bloomberg. 7 Rating Actions | Defaults Year-End Global Corporate Defaults By Reason Bankruptcy-Related Distressed Exchanges / Out-Of-Court Restructuring As credit spreads have Missed principal/interest payments and default on financial obligations Regulatory Intervention compressed nearly 50% for Confidential 300 low-rated issuers, the 250 combination of lower costs 200 150 and revenue pressure is 100 causing many issuers to 50 complete distressed debt 0 Number Of Defaults Of Number exchanges (tantamount to 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD default). *Data as of Nov. 30, 2020. Data has been updated to reflect confidential issuers. Excludes sovereigns, includes Greater China, and Red Chip companies. Sources: S&P Distressed debt exchanges can delay the inevitable without a Year-End EM 16 Corporate Defaults By Reason meaningful improvement in Bankruptcy-Related Distressed Exchanges / Out-Of-Court Restructuring balance sheets and revenue Missed principal/interest payments and default on financial obligations Regulatory Intervention generation, potentially default Confidential prospects elevated. 25 20 15 10 5 0 Number Of Defaults Number Of 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD *Data as of Nov. 30, 2020. Data has been updated to reflect confidential issuers. Excludes sovereigns, includes Greater China, and Red Chip companies. Sources: S&P 8 Financing Conditions | Despite Generally Lower Capital Costs, Debt Growth Remains Relatively Flat EM Corporate Debt Growth Eases Slightly Despite Low Financing Costs Emerging Markets (ex. China) Greater China − Despite the lower financing 50% costs in 2020, thanks to EM 45% 44% (excluding China) debt growth eases year-over-year 40% with new debt primarily aiding 35% in refinancing activity, rather 32% 31% than M&A and corporate 30% growth in past years. 27% 28% − 25% marginally higher than the 20% 2019 level, though it remains 16% 16% substantively lower than the 15% 13% 13% 14% one in 2016, before deleveraging initiatives took 10% hold. 5% 0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD Corporate debt growth computed as total cumulative corporate (financial and non-financial bond issuance divided by bond debt outstanding from beginning of the year. Data as of Nov. 30, 2020. Source: Refinitiv and S&P Global Ratings. 9 Non-Financial Corporates | Leverage Rises Modestly Non-Financial Corporate Leverage By EM And Median Rating Median Debt-EBITDA Ratio (Most Recent) − Leverage rose modestly for Median Debt-EBITDA Ratio (2019) most EMs, though Latin America saw the biggest increases.