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The Impacts of Large Constellations of Satellites

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The Impacts of Large Constellations of Satellites The Impacts of Large Constellations of Satellites Contact: Gordon Long — [email protected] JSR-20-2H November 2020 (Updated: January 21, 2021) DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release. Distribution unlimited. JASON The MITRE Corporation 7515 Colshire Drive McLean, Virginia 22102-7508 (703) 983-6997 Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing this collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (0704-0188), 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202- 4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) November 16, 2020 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Space Domain Awareness 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 1319JAPM 5e. TASK NUMBER PS 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER JASON Program Office The MITRE Corporation JSR-20-2H 7515 Colshire Drive McLean, Virginia 22102 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) NSF - National Science Foundation 2415 Eisenhower Ave 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) Alexandria, VA 22314 12. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT JASON was asked by NSF to study the impacts of large constellations of satellites on astronomical observations. The scope of the JASON study requested by NSF can perhaps best be summarized by some of the key questions posed by NSF in its Statement of Work for the JASON Study: • What are the expected trends, with uncertainties, in the population of satellites in Low Earth Orbit over the next 1-20 Years? • What are the specific impacts to be expected on the Rubin Observatory LSST program over time, including both the general survey activities and the detection of potentially hazardous Near-Earth Objects? • What are the mitigation opportunities both for the Rubin Observatory LSST and for more general classes of astronomical observations in the future? • What good practices could be put in place by satellite purveyors to minimize deleterious impacts on celestial observations. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES Ralph Gaume a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (include area code) (703) 292-2335 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1INTRODUCTION 9 2 LARGE SATELLITE CONSTELLATIONS 11 2.1 What is a Large Satellite Constellation? ............ 11 2.2 CurrentConstellations ...................... 12 2.3 ConstellationsinConstruction.................. 12 2.4 PlannedFutureSystems ..................... 14 2.5 RegulatoryandBandwidthConsiderations........... 15 2.6 Number of Satellites in View ................... 20 2.7 LargeConstellationConstraints ................. 21 2.7.1 Orbit altitude and inclination .............. 21 2.7.2 Communications constraints on constellation size ... 24 2.7.3 Economicconstraintsonconstellationsize ....... 26 2.7.4 Scaling relations for constellation size .......... 32 3 IMPACT ON ASTRONOMY 35 3.1 The Impact of Large Satellite Constellations on Optical As- tronomy .............................. 35 3.1.1 Summary of results to date ............... 35 3.1.2 Opticalastronomy:recommendedmitigations ..... 37 3.2 NearandMid-Infrared ...................... 43 3.3 Laser Guide Star Adaptive Optics ................ 45 3.3.1 Laserclearinghouse ................... 46 3.3.2 Laser guide stars: recommendations ........... 48 3.4 RadioAstronomyImpacts .................... 49 3.4.1 EstimatesofRFIfromlargeconstellations ....... 49 3.4.2 PSD and EPSD limits .................. 52 3.4.3 RFIfluctuations ..................... 55 3.4.4 RFIMitigations...................... 59 3.4.5 Radioastronomyrecommendations ........... 70 3.5 CMBObservations ........................ 71 JSR-20-2H The Impacts of Large iii January 21, 2021 Constellations of Satellites 4 LSST AND FAINT SATELLITE TRAILS 77 4.1 DetectionSensitivity ....................... 78 4.2 FromStreakstoOrbits...................... 80 4.3 OtherSurveys........................... 83 4.4 StreakLengthandScience.................... 83 5 COLLISION/DEBRIS CONSIDERATIONS 85 5.1 Introduction............................ 85 5.2 Illustrative Collisions and Near Collisions ............ 88 5.3 Collision Rates and Debris Production ............. 92 5.4 JASONCommentsonCollisionRates..............100 5.5 AutonomousDe-OrbitSystems .................104 5.6 Ascent and Descent Phases ....................105 5.7 Accurate Satellite Positions and Fleet Operations .......107 5.8 Collision/Debris: Findings and Recommendations .......109 A ACRONYMS 113 JSR-20-2H The Impacts of Large iv January 21, 2021 Constellations of Satellites EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Large numbers of communication satellites have recently been launched into low earth orbit (LEO). These include launches of hundreds of Starlink satel- lites destined for 550 km LEO orbits, as well as a smaller number (74) of OneWeb satellites destined for 1200 km LEO orbits. In 2020, Starlink an- nounced plans to construct a constellation with a final size of 42,000 satel- lites, OneWeb has announced plans for 48,000, and there are many other less mature concepts under development for this market. If both of these con- stellations are completed there would be 5,000 satellites visible from most any point on the ground at all times. JASON was asked by NSF and DOE to assess the impact of current and planned large satellite constellations on astronomical observations, and in particular the impact on the Vera Rubin Observatory and its Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). In addition to the impacts on the Rubin Observatory, JASON also in- vestigated potential impacts on optical astronomy generally, infrared astron- omy, radio astronomy, cosmic microwave background (CMB) studies, and laser guide-star observations. JASON assessed the possible growth of future large constellations, and also evaluated the risk posed by large constellations from the possible increase of orbital debris. Size and Economics of Constellations To understand the magnitude of the potential problems, JASON performed a simple analysis to determine the economic viability of satellite constellations for high speed data com- munications. This included looking at the minimum and maximum size for viable constellations from both an economic and technical point of view. The following are our findings and recommendations. • We see no economic barriers to constellations of the size already pro- posed. There may be technical limits to maximum constellation size, for example resulting from sidelobe power from many satellites degrad- ing link margin or the number of satellites in a given uplink beam, but these are likely to be insignificant for fewer satellites than the maxi- JSR-20-2H The Impacts of Large 1 January 21, 2021 Constellations of Satellites mum size of the proposed constellations. There may also be ways to mitigate these issues, such as using higher frequencies. • Judging from the size of the potential market and what people currently pay for broadband internet, this could be a profitable business as long as the cost of the satellites and launches are maintained at current levels or less. It appears that revenue currently exceeds cost for constellations comprising up to 100,000 satellites, and costs are currently coming down. Rubin Observatory and Optical Astronomy. A very large amount of detailed work by others has gone into the topic of large constellations and their potential impact on optical astronomy, including journal articles and numerous panel reports, with particular emphasis on the impacts on the Rubin Observatory. JASON reviewed this work and has the following highest priority findings and recommendations. Most of these are non Rubin-specific and relate to optical astronomy generally. • Our highest priority recommendation is: If at all possible, avoid orbits above 600 km. Orbits at 1000 km and higher are visible for a much longer fraction of the night. Satellites in orbits at 550 km reflect sun- light for only a few hours during and after twilight and consequently leave periods during the night that do not impact ground-based optical telescopes. • Operators of large constellations should be required to provide contin- uous, accurate position information on their satellites so that planned astronomical observations can avoid directions in which satellites may be present and also so that any impacted observations can be identi- fied. This is also extremely important for general traffic management and collision avoidance. • The NSF should support efforts to mitigate the impact
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