City of Brampton Official Plan Review – Draft Growth Scenarios Council Presentation
December 7, 2020
1 Introduction
• The City of Brampton is currently undertaking a comprehensive review and update of its Official Plan (O.P.). • The City’s new O.P. is intended to implement the direction of the “Brampton 2040 Vision” while complying with Provincial and Regional planning direction. • Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. (Watson) are working with WSP Consulting on this study. Our focus is directed to the development of three long-term range growth scenarios for the City to the year 2051.
2 Purpose • The purpose of this meeting is the summarize the draft findings prepared by the Consultant Team with respect to the City’s long-range growth scenarios to the year 2051. • As part of the O.P. review, a total of three long-term growth scenarios for the City have been examined, including:
• Current Trends Scenario (Scenario 1);
• Policy Driven Regional Conformity Scenario (Scenario 2); and
• Preferred Scenario – Brampton Vision 2040 (Scenario 3). • Each scenario will be used to information the City’s long-term growth potential by Planning Policy Area i.e. Built-up Area (B.U.A. and Designated Greenfield Area (D.G.A). 3 What Drives Population and Employment Growth?
Economics
Economic Drivers of Labour Force Growth Local and Regional Population and Forecast Employment within the Commuter Economic Outlook Employment Growth by Growth by Sector Shed Area
Demographics
Population, Population and Net Migration Population and Housing Forecast Housing, and Housing Forecast and Natural Housing forecast by Type, 2016 to Employment Allocation by Increase 2016 to 2051 2051 Growth Scenarios D.G.A. and B.U.A.
4 Overview of Macro-Economic and Regional Employment Trends
5 Toronto C.M.A. Total Labour Force and Unemployment Rate Trends, 2001 to October 2020
4,000 18%
3,492 3,500 3,405 16% 3,215
2,923 13.6% 14% 3,000 2,760 2,535 12% 2,500 12.2% 9.9% 10% 2,000 8.4% 8.3% 8% 6.3% 6.6% 7.9% 6.5% 1,500 5.6% 7.0% 6% 6.3% 6.3% 6.0% 1,000
4%
Unemployment Rate (%) Employed Employed Labour Force(000s) 500 2%
- 0%
Year
Toronto C.M.A. Employed Labour Force (Annual) Toronto C.M.A. Employed Labour Force (Monthly) Toronto C.M.A. Unemployment Rate Ontario Unemployment Rate
Note: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey and Census labour force statistics may differ. Source: Statistics Canada Data Tables 14-10-0098-01 and 14-10-0294-02. By Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020. 6 Peel Region Employment Growth by Sector, 2011 to 2019
Transportation and warehousing 32,690 (44%) Health care and social assistance 13,540 (30%) Construction 13,170 (35%) Accommodation and food services 11,070 (34%) Professional, scientific and technical services 10,520 (20%) Admin. and support, waste mgmt. and rem.… 9,600 (18%) Retail trade 9,290 (12%) Educational services 8,520 (24%) Wholesale trade 7,520 (11%) Finance and insurance 6,370 (21%)
Manufacturing 5,500 (6%) Sector Arts, entertainment and recreation 2,860 (48%) Other services (except public administration) 2,550 (10%) Public administration 1,890 (7%) Management of companies and enterprises 1,400 (24%) Real estate and rental and leasing 790 (5%) Information and cultural industries 700 (4%) Utilities 550 (22%) Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction -90 (-16%) Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting -450 (-21%) -5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 Employment Growth, 2011 to 2019 Source: Derived from EMSI data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020. Note: Figure includes employed and self-employed jobs. 7 City of Brampton Commuting Patterns by Usual Place of Work, 2016
• 661,000 increase in Primary Commuter Shed jobs from 2016-2051. • 0.7% Annual employment growth rate 2016-2051. • Primary commuter shed is 88% of the City’s total commuter shed.
City of Brampton Primary Commuter Shed Employment Forecast 2016 2051 2016-2051
2,301,000 2,962,000 661,000
8 Historical Population Growth Rates, 2001 to 2016 by Comparator Municipalities
4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.4% 1.5% to 2016 to 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Brampton Vaughan Markham Mississauga G.T.H.A. Annual Population Growth Rate, 2001 2001 Rate, Growth Population Annual Municipality Source: 2001 to 2016 from Statistics Canada Census. Figure by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020. Note: Population includes Net Census Undercount.
9 Region of Peel Historical Population Growth, 2001 to 2019
120,000 114,100 Share of Regional Population Growth, 2001 to 2019 100,000 87,800 82,300 80,000 73,100 Brampton: 70% 59,600 60,000
40,000 38,100
21,900 Mississauga: 20,000 Net Census UndercountCensusNet 9,600 25% 6,900 7,400 7,100 1,800 0 2001 to 2006 2006 to 2011 2011 to 2016 2016 to 2019 Incremental Population Increase Including theIncludingPopulation IncreaseIncremental Period Brampton Mississauga Caledon Source: 2001 to 2016 from Statistics Canada Census. 2019 from Statistics Canada Post-Censal Estimates. Figure by Caledon: 5% Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020.
10 Historical Employment Growth Rates, 2001 to 2016 by Comparator Municipalities
3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%
2.5%
2.0% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3%
2001 to 2016 to 2001 1.0%
0.5%
Annual Employment Growth Rate, Rate, Growth Employment Annual 0.0% Vaughan Brampton Markham Mississauga G.T.H.A. Municipality Source: 2001 to 2016 from Statistics Canada Census. Figure by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020. 11 City of Brampton Employment Growth, 2001 to 2016
250,000 100.0%
90.0%
200,000 191,400 80.0%
172,100 70.0% 155,900 150,000 60.0% 136,600 50.0% 40.2% 100,000 34.4% 40.0% 31.7% Rate Activity
Total Employment Total 30.0% 31.0% 50,000 20.0%
10.0%
0 0.0% 2001 2006 2011 2016 Year Total Employment Employment Activity Rate
Source: 2001 to 2016 total employment from Statistics Canada Census, by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020. Note: Activity rate calculated using the Statistics Canada Census undercount. 12 City-Wide Long-Term Population and Housing Forecast Scenarios to 2051
13 Growth Plan 2019 (Amended), Schedule 3 Forecast for Peel Region, 2016 to 2051
2,500,000
2,280,000 2,300,000
2,100,000 2,048,000 2016 to 1,900,000 1,828,000 2051 Population Growth: 1,700,000 1,578,000 847,000
1,500,000 1,433,000
1,300,000 Total Population Including Net Census Undercount Census Net Including Population Total 2016 2021 2031 2041 2051 Year Growth Plan 2019 (Amended), Schedule 3
Source: Data from Growth Plan, 2019 and Greater Golden Horeshoe: Growth Forecasts to 2051 by Hemson Consulting Ltd. FIgure prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020. 14 City of Brampton Population Forecast Scenarios, 2016 to 2051
1,108,000 1,100,000
983,000 996,000 1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000 616,000
600,000 541,000 TotalPopulation 500,000 454,000
400,000 340,000
300,000 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Year
Preferred Scenario Current Trends Scenario Historical
Source: Forecasts by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020. Note: Population includes the Net Census Undercount estimated at 3.5%. 15 Share of Growth Between City of Brampton Forecast Scenarios and Region of Peel Forecast, 2016 to 2051
80% 70% 70%
60% 58%
50% 44%
40%
30%
20% Population Growth (2016 to 2051) toGrowth (2016Population
City of Brampton Share of Peel Region Peelof BramptonShareofCity 10%
0% Historical Growth Share, 2001 to Preferred Scenario Region of Peel 2051 Growth 2019 Allocation (October 2020 Draft) Source: Region of Peel population growth derived from Growth Plan (2020). Figure by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020.
16 City of Brampton Total Household Forecast, 2016 to 2051
350,000 324,800 Household Growth, 300,000 282,900 2016 to 2051: 302,100
250,000 235,400 270,400
232,900 200,000 Preferred: 168,000 156,900 149,200 150,000 125,900 97,500
TotalHouseholds 100,000
50,000 Current Trends: - 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 134,100 Year Preferred Scenario Current Trends Scenario Historical Source: Forecasts by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020. Note: Households depict occupied housing units. 17 City of Brampton Current Trends Annual Household Forecast, 2016 to 2051
6,000 5,700 Historical Average, 4,700 5,100 5,000 4,700 Forecast Average, 4,400 3,800 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,000 3,000
2,000 Annual Household Growth HouseholdAnnual 1,000
- 2001 to 2006 to 2011 to 2016 to 2021 to 2026 to 2031 to 2036 to 2041 to 2046 to 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Period Source: 2001 to 2016 from Statistics Canada Census. Forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020. Note: Households depict occupied housing units. 18 City of Brampton Preferred Annual Household Forecast, 2016 to 2051
6,000 5,700 Historical Average, Forecast Average, 4,700 5,100 4,900 4,500 5,000 4,700 4,800 4,700 4,300 4,100 4,000 3,800 3,500
3,000
2,000 Annual Household Growth HouseholdAnnual 1,000
- 2001 to 2006 to 2011 to 2016 to 2021 to 2026 to 2031 to 2036 to 2041 to 2046 to 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Period Source: 2001 to 2016 from Statistics Canada Census. Forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020. Note: Households depict occupied housing units. 19 Long-Term Population and Housing Forecast Scenarios by Planning Policy Area to 2051 (Built-up Area and Designated Greenfield Area)
20 City of Brampton Planning Policy Area Map
21 City of Brampton D.G.A. Population Forecast Scenarios, 2016 to 2051
450,000 431,000 Buildout (Current Trends), 406,000 400,000 402,000 361,000 350,000
300,000
250,000 Total Population Total 200,000
150,000
100,000 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Year Current Trends Scenario Preferred Scenario Buildout (Current Trends)
Source: Current Trends and Preferred Scenario by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020. Note: Population includes the Net Census Undercount estimated at 3.5%. 22 City of Brampton D.G.A. Household Growth by Type, 2016 to 2051
100,000 92,700
90,000 84,600
80,000 29% 22% 70,000
60,000
50,000 33% 36%
40,000
30,000
Total Households, 2016 to 2051to 2016Households, Total 20,000 38% 42% 10,000
- Preferred Scenario Current Trends Scenario
Low Density Medium Density High Density
Source: Current Trends and Preferred Scenario by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020. Note: Household depict s occupied housing units. 23 City of Brampton B.U.A. Household Growth by Type, 2016 to 2051
70,000 64,200 Intensification, 60,000 2022 to 2051:
49,600 50,000
68% 40,000 Preferred: 60% 43% 30,000
20,000
Total Households, 2016 to 2051to 2016Households, Total 15% 19% 10,000 17% 21% Current Trends: - Preferred Scenario Current Trends Scenario 38% Low Density Medium Density High Density Source: Current Trends and Preferred Scenario by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020. Note: Household depict occupied housing units. 24 City-Wide Long-Term Employment Forecast Scenarios to 2051
25 G.T.A. Major Office Market Share of New Office G.F.A. Sq.ft. Development in the G.T.A.
City of Toronto and Surrounding G.T.A. (905 Area) Major Office Development, 1999 to 2019 12,000 10,959 • Within the 905 Area over 10,000 the 2014 to 2019 period, the City of Mississauga 8,000 represented 40% of the 88% 6,000 5,553 5,670 5,608 office development, while (000's) 4,527 4,037 Brampton represented 4,000 77% 54% 53% less than 1%. 43% 38% 2,000 965 997 623 815 665 Share Share ofNew Office Development G.F.A. 7% 9% 13% 213 9% 0 5% 1999-2003 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2019 905 Area Downtown Toronto City of Toronto, excluding Downtown Source: 1999-2013 derived from Office Space Financial/Market Analysis and Marketing Plan Study. 2014-2019 derived from Colliers International Office Market Reports, by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020.
26 City of Brampton Employment Lands Employment Historical Employment Land Absorption, Peel Region Peel Region Employment Lands Absorbed, 2010 to 2014 and 2015 to 2019 • Employment land absorption has historically 600 been strong within the City of Brampton.
488 ha • Over the past 5-years, approximately 63 ha 500 457 ha 32; 6% of lands has been absorbed annually with 400 the City of Brampton, significantly more than 211; 46% the City of Mississauga. 300 315; 64% • A key challenge for the City of Brampton is 200 maximize its finite supply of employment by 160; 35% increasing employment density and 100 intensification levels. 142; 29% 86; 19% Employment Lands Absorbed (Ha) Absorbed Lands Employment 0 • Average employment density on lands 2010-2014 2015-2019 absorbed within the last 5-years averaged 21 Period jobs/net ha. Caledon Brampton Mississauga Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2020. 27 City of Brampton Employment Forecast City of Brampton Employment Forecast, 2016 to 2051
450,000 Employment Growth, 2016 to 2051: 400,500 400,000 372,100 Preferred: 350,000 341,500 327,600 209,100 314,800 (2.1% 319,100 300,000 287,400 308,800 annually) 298,400 256,000 283,100
Total Employment Employment Total 258,900 250,000 231,100 Current 200,000 191,400 Trends: 136,200 (1.5% 150,000 annually) 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Period Current Trends Scenario Preferred Scenario 28 City of Brampton Employment Forecast City of Brampton Employment Activity Rates, 2016 to 2051
Current Trends Scenario Preferred Growth Scenario
450,000 38% 450,000 38% 36.1% 35.6% 400,000 36% 400,000 36% 34.7% 34.5% 33.9% 34.3% 34.0% 34.3% 33.5% 33.5% 33.5% 350,000 33.4% 33.2% 34% 350,000 34%
32.9% 400,500
300,000 31.1% 32% 300,000 31.1% 32%
372,100 341,500
250,000 30% 250,000 30%
327,600
314,800
319,100
308,800 298,400 200,000 287,400 28%
200,000 283,100 28%
256,000
258,900
Total Employment Total 231,100
Total Employment Total 150,000 26%
150,000 231,100 26%
Employment Activity Activity Rate Employment
191,400 Employment Activity Activity Rate Employment 100,000 191,400 24% 100,000 24%
50,000 22% 50,000 22%
0 20% 0 20% 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Period Period Total Employment - Current Trends Scenario Total Employment - Preferred Scenario Employment Activity Rate (Current Trends Sceanario) Employment Activity Rate (Preferred Scenario)
29 Conclusions
30 Conclusions Population and Housing Outlook
• With an average annual population growth rate of approximately 4.0% annually between 2001 and 2016, the City of Brampton has been one of the fastest growing municipalities in Canada.
• By 2051, the City of Brampton’s population base is forecast to reach between 1 million (Current Trends) and 1.1 million (Preferred).
• This represents a population increase of 380,000 to 505,000 between 2016 and 2051, or an average annual population growth rate of approximately 1.4% to 1.7%.
• Relative to the Current Trends Scenario, the Preferred Scenario anticipates a higher level of net migration with a slightly younger age structure.
31 Conclusions Housing Outlook – D.G.A.
• The draft results of this analysis indicate that the City can accommodate an additional 85,000 units and 402,000 people within the D.G.A. assuming a moderate increase in housing density informed by recent and anticipated housing market conditions.
• Under the Preferred Scenario, approximately 8,000 housing units have been allocated to the D.G.A., largely driven by higher D.G.A. densities achieved in Heritage Heights.
32 Conclusions Housing Outlook – B.U.A.
• Under the Current Trends Scenario, a more modest housing intensification target of 38% has been assumed.
• Under the Preferred Scenario, a long-term housing intensification target of 43% has been identified from 2016 to 2051. Relative to the Current Trends Scenario, this translates into an additional 14,600 high-density households allocated to the B.U.A. over the planning horizon.
33 Conclusions Employment Outlook • While the City’s employment base has grown steadily over the past 15 years at annual rate of approximately 2.8%, the rate of annual employment has been slower relative to population. As a result, the City’s employment activity rate (ratio of jobs to population) has declined from approximately 37% in 2001 to 31% in 2016.
• By 2051, the City of Brampton’s employment base is forecast to reach between 328,000 (Current Trends) and 400,500 (Preferred).
• This represents an employment increase of 136,000 to 209,000 between 2016 and 2051, or an average annual employment growth rate of approximately 1.5% to 2.1%.
• By 2051, the City’s employment activity rate is forecast to increase to between 33% (Current Trends) and 36% (Preferred). Under the Current Trends Scenario the City’s employment activity rate is anticipated to peak by 2031 at 34%.
34 Conclusions Employment Outlook • The Preferred Scenario assumes a greater amount of Major Office Employment (M.O.E.) compared to the Current Trends Scenario.
• In targeting the Preferred Scenario, the City will need to attract a wider-range of sectors in the M.O.E. category.
• Relative to the Current Trends Scenario, the Preferred Scenario assumes a higher yield of Employment Lands Employment (E.L.E.) through higher densities and increased intensification in Employment Areas.
• The Preferred and Current Trends Scenario both assume a similar ratio of Population Related Employment (P.R.E.) relative to population growth. As a result, more P.R.E. growth is forecast under the Preferred Scenario as a result of higher population growth assumed.
35 Next Steps
36 Next Steps
• Preparation of City of Brampton Draft Growth Analysis Study, February 2021. • Preparation of City of Brampton Final Growth Analysis Study, February 2021.
37