John A. Russo, Jr. me economic Impact ol weather The Travelers Research Center, Inc. on the construction industry Hartford, Conn. ol the united States1
1. Introduction ment, ruined material, etc. To determine the magnitude The U. S. Weather Bureau (ESSA) 2 has long provided and extent of the weather's influence on construction services to the general public and to users with special operations, many days were spent in the field with con- interests (e.g., in aviation, marine, and agricultural ac- struction personnel observing the numerous operations tivities). In a continuing effort to broaden its services to of the industry. The information gathered, when com- those segments of the economy that are particularly vul- bined with that obtained through surveys and an ex- 3 nerable to weather, the Weather Bureau recently spon- tensive literature search, resulted in the conclusion that sored a study to determine the nature and magnitude of 43 major construction operations are weather sensitive losses due to weather in the construction industry of the to some extent. Table 1 lists these weather sensitive op- United States, and the potential capability of present erations, along with an estimate of the point at which and future weather forecast accuracy and meteorological each operation becomes critically affected by 13 weather services to reduce these losses. elements or conditions. The construction operations In this study, efforts were directed toward: shown in Table 1 represent a composite taken from the four major categories of construction (residential, • determining those operations of the construction general building, highway, and heavy and specialized) industry influenced by weather, and are approximately arranged according to actual time • determining the type of weather information sequence. It is clearly shown in the table that weather needed by the construction industry for specific op- sensitivity is evident through almost the entire spectrum erations; of construction operations, that is, from planning op- • assessing the availability of this information to erations such as surveying, through such assembly opera- the industry, tions as concrete paving, to finishing operations such as • estimating the nationwide construction-industry landscaping and painting. dollar loss due to weather, • estimating the reduction in weather-associated 3. Weather information needs of the construction dollar loss likely to be derived by the industry from industry the appropriate use of existing and improved weather information, and While weather-initiated decisions in the construction in- • determining the most effective methods for edu- dustry may be made at any hour of the day or night, cating the construction industry regarding construc- the study revealed that weather information require- tion-oriented weather information. ments reach a maximum at about 2-3 p.m. and 6-7 a.m. Planning and scheduling of the following day's activities, 2. Construction industry operations influenced by including labor, equipment, and material usage, are weather often based on the weather forecast available in the The effects of weather are felt by the construction in- afternoon. Such a schedule is tentative in many cases, dustry through lost or inefficient work days, idle equip- and the final decision, made early the next morning, is heavily influenced by the observed weather condition^ 1 This paper is a summary of the results of a study sup- ported by the U. S. Weather Bureau under Contract Cwb- at the work site(s) during the 7-8 a.m. period. 10984. This detailed report (Russo, J. A., Jr., K. Trouern- It was also found that the weather information re- Trend, R. H. Ellis, R. C. Koch, G. M. Howe, G. H. Milly, I. quired by the construction industry for these short Enger, 1965: The operational and economic impact of weather on the construction industry of the United States. Final Re- (0-24 hr) time periods must be much more detailed than port 7665-163, The Travelers Research Center, Inc., Hartford, that made available through public dissemination media. Conn.) is available through the Commerce Clearing House, National Bureau of Standards. Price $6.00. 3ASHVE (1955), Bristow (1955), Court (1958), Hendrick 2 The U. S. Weather Bureau is now a part of the Environ- (1959), Landsberg (1960), Merritt (1944), Potter (1952), Thorn mental Science Services Administration (ESSA). (1956), and Waters (1957).
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TABLE 1. Critical limits of weather elements having significant influence on construction operations.
CO a; CO £ i* G G 3 a .2 60 j
* L indicates light; M indicates moderate. t x indicates operation is affected by this condition but critical limit is undeterminable. $ x water freeze, critical limit undeterminable.
For weather information to be most useful to any in- • local observations of current weather over an en- dustry, it should be geared specifically to the needs of tire state or multi-state area; all components of the industry. The weather service re- • warnings, revisions, and modifications, when nec- quirements of the construction industry were found to essary, at least two hours in advance; be analogous to that of the aviation industry, where the • zero to twenty-four hour forecasts of the timing timing of critical weather events is emphasized and a and intensity (or magnitude) of weather events critical constant vigilance with regard to the critical limits is to individual operations; maintained through timely updatings and revisions. • five-day forecasts of general characteristics of the While the service needs of these two industries are quite weather for planning of indoor-outdoor work, equip- similar, the pertinent weather conditions and their criti- ment maintenance, and perishable materials opera- cal limits are quite different. tions; A detailed analysis was made of the weather elements • thirty-day outlooks; 1 for longer-range of significance, their threshold limits, important decision • historical climatological Lplanning and points, and types of decisions required for each of the information. bidding 43 construction operations listed in Table 1. Condensa- tion of the operation-by-operation list resulted in the To substantiate the findings, an experimental forecast determination of a "weather product package," which format was formulated and forecasts were issued on a encompasses the requirements of the entire industry. real-time basis to local construction firms. The combina- This weather product package comprises two primary tion of consulting with, and issuing forecasts to, a variety forecasts per day (6-7 a.m. and 2-3 p.m.) of the timing of construction personnel (e.g., concrete supplier, indus- and magnitude or intensity of the critical weather events trial builder) resulted in the development of an experi- (in probabilistic form, where applicable), a constant mental construction-weather service. Through this ex- watch on the weather with construction industry prob- perimental service and personal contact with contractors, lems in mind, and timely revisions whenever required. important information was compiled concerning the The weather product package, with reference to the deficiencies in the present Weather Bureau forecast sys- weather conditions listed in Table 1, is classified into tem from the construction industry's point of view, the six time periods of interest: type of information desired, the time it is most useful,
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FIG. 1. Experimental construction weather forecast issued 0700, 22 October 1965: 0-24-hr forecast of precipitation, wind, fog.
FIG. 2. Experimental construction weather forecast issued 0700, 22 October 1965: 0-24-hr forecast of temperature, chill factor, drying conditions, ground freeze.
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and the reason it is needed. During the experimental reau, the constant weather-watch aspect of the service, period it was found that the most convenient way to with warnings and revisions and rapid dissemination to present weather information is via time-oriented graphi- the user, is the responsibility of private weather forecast- cal products. Examples of the zero to 24 hour and five- ing services. day forecast components of the weather product package are given in Figs. 1 and 2 and in Table 2. Note in Figs. 5. Nationwide construction industry dollar loses 1 and 2 that the timing of weather events is emphasized, due to weather and that the uncertainties in the forecasts are reflected United States construction expenditures totaled about by either probabilities (precipitation) or error limits $88 billion in 1964 (Dooley, 1964; Hartford Times, 1965) (temperature). —more than 10 per cent of the gross national product. Of this total volume of construction, it is estimated 4 TABLE 2. Experimental construction weather forecast issued that about 45 per cent, or $39.7 billion, is spent in 0600 22 October 1965—summary, 5-day forecast potentially weather sensitive areas of construction (i.e., outdoors, or work requiring perishable materials, etc.). Minimum Maximum Table 3 gives the distribution of the total annual con- Sky condition Precipitation probability temperature temperature (°F) (°F) Date struction volume among the four major categories of construction, plus repair and maintenance as a fifth cate- Contained in 24-hr forecast gory, and the corresponding proportion of the volume considered potentially weather sensitive. 22 Oct. Detailed analysis of pertinent weather conditions over 23 Oct. Clear 1/10 32 ±3 50 ±3 24 Oct. Increasing 1/10 a.m. 30 ±4 55 ±4 the United States for a five-year period showed that the cloudiness 3/10 p.m. weather effects on the construction industry may be 25 Oct. Cloudy 6/10 rain 34 ±5 50 ±5 classed into two separate, but overlapping, categories. 26 Oct. Partly cloudy 3/10 showers 33 ±6 40 ±6 These are the seasonal effects brought about by weather typical of the winter season, and the intermittent day- to-day weather changes in all seasons. 4. Availability of weather products The economic impact of seasonal weather effects was The availability status of each of the weather products assessed by analyzing available data on seasonal unem- required by the construction industry was assessed ac- ployment in the construction industry, and by estimat- cording to current Weather Bureau availability. It was ing the economic effects of the various components con- concluded that some of the products deemed essential tributing to a decrease in the annual construction dollar to the construction industry are now made available to volume due to adverse winter weather (Construction Re- the industry by the Weather Bureau through mass dis- view, 1965; ILO, 1964; USDL, 1963b). The seasonal semination media and teletypewriter circuits. Other variation in United States construction expenditures products are considered by forecasters in their daily which peaks in August and reaches a minimum in Feb- routines, but are not disseminated, and still others, due ruary is caused by both the planned seasonal cycle of to their specialized nature, would require additional ef- the construction industry brought about by the inherent fort to generate as well as to disseminate. seasonal demand of the consumer and adverse winter It appears that a mixture of government and private weather. Analysis of the annual construction cycle of weather services is needed to completely and satisfac- construction dollar volume in the southwestern United torily fulfill the weather information needs of the con- States (where adverse weather effects may be considered struction industry. While some of the critical weather 4 Construction Review (1962, 1964a, 1964b, 1965), Sumi- condition forecasts could be issued by the Weather Bu- chrast (1964), USDL (1963a, 1963b), and USGC (1958).
TABLE 3. Distribution of total annual construction volume and the proportion considered potentially weather sensitive ($ billions).
Potentially weather sensitive Total sensitive Construction category Annual volume (per cent of Overhead annual volume) Perishable On-site wages Equipment material and profits
Residential 17.2 0.960 1.624 0.073 2.141 4.8 (27.9) General building 29.7 1.928 4.079 0.222 2.670 8.9 (30.0) Highways 6.6 1.666 1.633 0.773 0.727 4.8 (72.7) Heavy and specialized 12.5 1.875 3.125 2.500 2.500 10.0 (80.0) Repair and maintenance 22.0 2.674. 3.996 1.386 3.143 11.2 (50.9)
Total (rounded) 88.0 9.1 14.4 5.0 11.2 39.7 (45.1)
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negligible) resulted in an evaluation of the extent of The ability to interpret and to use effectively weather the seasonal demand effects in that area. Projection of forecasts and services is essential if the construction in- this calculation to the United States as a whole, on a dustry is to work with the Weather Bureau and with proportional basis, resulted in an estimate of the de- private weather consultants to benefit fully from the crease in annual construction dollar volume due to specialized service it needs. adverse weather alone. To assess the economic impact of intermittent day-to- 8. Summary and conclusions day weather, the annual potentially weather-sensitive Of the total United States construction expenditure of construction volume ($39.7 billion) was distributed on $88 billion (in 1964), it is estimated that about 45 per a daily basis. The weather over the entire United States cent, or $39.7 billion, is spent in potentially weather was represented by five years (1959-1963) of hourly ob- sensitive areas of construction. servations of the important weather conditions shown in Considering only the potentially weather sensitive ex- Table 1 for six United States cities. The six cities: New penditures, the total construction industry dollar loss York, Chicago, Portland, Oreg., Los Angeles, Dallas, and due to weather, throughout the entire United States, is Atlanta, each located in a different climatic regime, rep- quantitatively evaluated at a minimum of $3 billion an- resented near-average temperature and precipitation con- nually. The maximum possible dollar loss is estimated ditions for their respective regions, as well as 10-15 per to be as high as $10 billion. cent of the total annual U. S. construction expenditure. Under the assumption that weather-service informa- For each day of the five year period at each of the six tion such as that shown in Figs. 1 and 2 and in Table 2 cities, and according to pre-defined rules simulating con- is made available to the construction industry through struction industry decision processes, the consequences the Weather Bureau and private weather forecast serv- of working or not working were tabulated in terms of ices, and is appropriately used, it is estimated that with lost time, idle equipment, inefficiency, etc. Using the the present forecast accuracy a potential annual savings daily distribution of the potentially weather-sensitive of $0.5 to 1.0 billion is possible. The maximum savings dollar volume, these values were converted from a fre- achievable by the industry, assuming 100 per cent ac- quency basis to a dollar basis. curacy of all forecast products for the shorter (0-24 hr) The total United States dollar loss due to weather was time periods, are estimated at $0.8 to 1.3 billion, or quantitatively evaluated at a minimum of $3 billion an- $300 million more than is obtainable with the present nually. The maximum possible dollar loss was estimated forecast accuracy. to be as high as $10 billion. This wide range results from a highly speculative estimate of the decreased con- References struction volume due to seasonal weather effects. ASHVE, 1955: Heating, ventilating, air conditioning guide. Am. Soc. Heating and Ventilating Engineers, 33, 122-128. 6. Potential savings with appropriate use of Bristow, G. C., 1955: How cold is it? Weekly Weather and weather information Crop Bull. Natl. Summary, November, 2 pp. Under the assumption that the recommended weather- Construction Review, 1962: Materials used in federal office service information is made available to the construc- building construction. 8, No. 10. tion industry and is appropriately used, it is estimated , 1964a: Material and equipment for civil works construc- that, with the present forecast accuracy, a potential an- tion. 10, No. 6. nual savings of $0.5 to $1.0 billion is possible. This rep- , 1964b: Material used in private and public housing con- struction. 10, No. 8. resents approximately 10 to 17 per cent of the estimated , 1965: (Various industry-wide statistics). 11, Nos. 1, 2. weather-caused loss. The maximum savings achievable if Court, A., 1958: Wind chill. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 34, 487- the forecast products for the shorter (0-24 hour) time 493. periods were 100 per cent accurate are estimated to be Dooley, W. G., 1964: $88 billion year in prospect for 1964. $0.8 to 1.3 billion, or $300 million more than is obtain- The Constructor, January, 16-18. able with present forecast accuracy. Hartford Times, 1965: 1964 construction sets record. February 20. 7. Weather education and the construction Hendrick, R. L., 1959: An outdoor weather-comfort index for industry the summer season in Hartford, Conn. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Weather products and services can be of value only if Soc., 40, 620-623. International Labor Organization, 1964: Practical measures for decision makers within the construction industry ap- regularization of employment in the construction industry. preciate their economic potential and know how to use Report III, Building, Civil Engineering, and Public Works them effectively. There is a definite need for additional Committee, 87 pp. plus 2 appendixes. education of industry members regarding weather and Landsberg, H. E., 1960: Bioclimatic work in the Weather Bu- its relation to their operations. Recommended outlets reau. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 41, 184-187. are weather-use courses in college curricula, and self- Merrit, A., 1944: Construction methods in sub-arctic. Pacific teaching manuals and kits for those in the field. Builders and Engineers, 50, 33-34.
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Potter, A. R., 1952: Sub-zero weather complicates well-servic- Thom, E. C., 1956: Measuring the need for air conditioning. ing operations. World Petroleum, 23, 88-89. Air Conditioning, Heating, and Ventilating, 53, 65-70. Russo, J. A., Jr., K. Trouern-Trend, R. H. Ellis, R. C. Koch, U. S. Department of Labor, 1963a: Labor and materials re- G. M. Howe, G. H. Milly and I. Enger, 1965: The opera- quirements: Highway construction, 1958 and 1961. Mon. Labor Rev., August. tional and economic impact of weather on the construction , 1963b: Mon. Labor Rev., January-December. industry of the United States. Final Report 7665-163, Con- United States Gysum Company, 1958: Blueprint for profit. tract Cwb-10948, The Travelers Research Center, Inc., 113 pp. Hartford, Conn., 102 pp. plus 12 appendixes. Waters, J. W., 1957: Weather limitations to the construction Sumichrast, M., 1964: Rising sand costs are boosting sale price of industrial establishments. Boston, Amer. Meteor. Soc., of homes. NAHB J. of Homebuilding, 18, 30-32. Meteor. Monogr., 2, No. 9, pp. 37-52.
news and notes
Biometeorology grant to Midwest universities Members of the CIC Biometeorology Subcommittee include: Announcement of a Federal grant of $794,724 to provide con- University of Chicago—Dr. Charles E. Olmsted, Dept. of tinuing support of a program for training graduate specialists Botany, Dr. Wesley Calef, Dept. of Geography in the new field of biometeorology was made recently by the Committee on Institutional Cooperation (CIC), a voluntary University of Illinois—Dr. Frederick Sargent, II, Dept. of association of 11 Midwestern universities engaged in joint Physiology and Biophysics, Dr. S. C. Kendeigh, Dept. of educational projects. The new grant, awarded by the U. S. Zoology Public Health Service, Division of Air Pollution, will sup- port the program for the next five years. An earlier grant Indiana University—Dr. Sid Robinson, Dept. of Anatomy launched the CIC biometeorology program in 1963. and Physiology, Dr. Roderick A. Suthers, Dept. of Anatomy Dr. Frederick Sargent, II, professor of meteorology at the and Physiology University of Illinois and director of the program, said that University of Iowa—Dr. G. Edgar Folk, Jr., Dept. of Physi- biometeorology aims to find out the precise ways in which ology, Dr. R. V. Bovbjerg, Dept. of Zoology weather affects man, animals, and plants, and how these or- ganisms adapt to changes of weather and climate. The fields University of Michigan—Dr. E. Wendell Hewson, Dept. of of study contributing to this aim include: animal sciences, Meteorology and Oceanography, Dr. John M. Sheldon, Pro- plant sciences, human biology, meteorology, and air pollution. fessor of Internal Medicine According to Dr. Sargent, training of specialists in bio- meteorology requires a wide variety of specialized environ- Michigan State University—Dr. James B. Harrington, Dept. mental laboratories and field facilities. The CIC arrangement of Agricultural Engineering, Dr. C. E. Prouty, Dept. of eliminates the tremendous cost of duplicating such facilities, Geology and students may do their work in successive stages on sev- University of Minnesota—Dr. A. C. Hodson, Dept. of En- eral campuses. In the summer students may work in the tomology, Fisheries, and Wildlife, Dr. Clarence M. Stowe, field or in a laboratory far from their home institution, for Dept. of Physiology and Pharmacology example, with the Weather Bureau in Suitland, Md., with the Department of Agriculture in Beltsville or New Orleans, Northwestern University—Dr. Orlando Park, Dept. of Bio- or in field studies at Point Barrow, Alaska. logical Sciences, Dr. Frank A. Brown, Jr., Dept. of Biological Students in the program are called CIC Biometeorology Sciences Fellows and currently include graduate students in biology, geography, engineering, and meteorology. The program does Ohio State University—Dr. Gareth E. Gilbert, Dept. of not itself lead to a degree in biometeorology. Candidates take Botany and Plant Pathology, Dr. Robert E. Stewart, Dept. of their degrees in such fields as biophysics, botany, meteorology, Agricultural Engineering physiology, geography, medicine, and zoology. The special training in biometeorology is then adapted to individual Purdue University—Dr. John C. Rogler, Dept. of Animal professional interests. Sciences, Dr. Frederick N. Andrews, Dean of Graduate School Among the Federal agencies particularly interested in the University of Wisconsin—Dr. R. A. Ragotzkie, Dept. of CIC program are the Public Health Service, Department of Meteorology, Dr. Champ B. Tanner, Dept. of Soils Agriculture, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Environmental Science Services Administration. (More news and notes on page 981)
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