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http://en.sxcoal.com China Coal Weekly Fenwei Energy Consulting Co., Ltd Issue 540 Monday Mar 14, 2016 Inside This Issue LEADING STORY LEADING STORY P1 Market views divide on China thermal coal WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS & FORECAST prospect Market opinions seemed dividing on the prospect of Weekly China thermal coal market P2 China’s thermal coal sector, as various factors were Weekly China coking coal market P3 imposing an interweaving effect on the market trend. Weekly China met. coke market P4 Positive factors may include low demand from MARKET COMMENT utilities against continued tight supply amid mine Shanxi Jan coal outbound sales down 18 pct P5 suspension during the two parliamentary sessions over COAL/COKE March 2-16. China can absorb laid-off labor, NDRC Minister P6 Small and medium sized mines were likely to resume operation after March 16, and also on the Shanxi to stop adding new coal capacity in next 5 yrs P6 Datong Coal Mine to close 12 mines in 2016-2020 P7 precondition that production and delivery of coal into Shenhua to cut 30 Mtpa coal capacity in 2016 P7 northern ports could bring them profit. Yankuang to cut 6,500 jobs in 2016 P7 Some utilities appeared to have accepted miners Inner Mongolia Ordos Feb coal sales down 0.9pct on yr P8 price hike request, and it was said one such utility had China Jan-Feb coal output down 6.4pct P8 increased purchase price for thermal coal by 10 yuan/t compared to the beginning of this month, said an end China Feb coal imports down 11.3pct on yr P8 Ceke Feb coal imports up 8.7pct on yr P8 user source. Daqin Feb coal transport down 27.4pct on yr P9 Low-sulfur products of 5,500 Kcal/kg and 5,000 Shaanxi 2015 rail coal transport slides 4.7pct P9 Kcal/kg NAR were heard offered at 385-388 yuan/t and China Feb coke exports surge 57.1 pct on yr P9 355 yuan/t FOB, respectively, said a trader. Owing to reduced delivery, the northern port of POWER/STEEL Tianjin saw thermal coal prices creep up to levels similar China plans 30 nuclear power plants along Silk Route P10 to Qinhuangdao, said port traders. China Jan-Feb thermal power output down 4.3pct on yr P10 One Qinhuangdao-based trader reported an offer of China Feb steel exports down 16.7pct on mth P10 349 yuan/t FOB for 0.8% sulfur shipment of 5,000 China Jan-Feb crude steel output at 121.07 mln T P11 Kcal/kg NAR coal, and said there was further negotiating room for the traded price. Please kindly note that, to further optimize our products and provide quality services, we have stopped publishing the Extended Version of One Inner Mongolia-based trader said his company China Coal Weekly starting from January 2014. CCR members can go to was doing business that directly delivery thermal coal by the Analysis section for latest monthly analysis and forecast articles. rail to users in Beijing, Shandong and Hubei. "Mine-mouth prices in production bases showed CCI Thermal Index uptrend, while utilities in eastern Shandong even made Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 14 price cuts, making (us) traders in an embarrassment," he CCI 5500* 380.50 380.50 382.00 382.00 382.00 said. CCI 5000* 341.50 341.50 342.50 342.50 342.50 But overall speaking, daily coal burn at utilities was CCI 5500 Import 45.50 45.70 45.70 45.90 46.00 still lower than the same period of last year, and the CCI 4700 Import 41.20 41.20 41.20 41.20 41.30 climb-up in temperature may further dent heating CCI 3800 Import 30.50 30.50 30.50 30.50 30.70 demand, said a Shanxi-based trader. * includes VAT at 17%. And southern China may expect an improvement in For details of methodology and premium/penalty standards, please visit http://en.sxcoal.com. the performance of the hydropower sector, which will (continued on page 5) China Coal Resource (CCR) Page 1 of 12 http://en.sxcoal.com China Coal Weekly WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS & FORECAST Weekly China thermal coal analysis and forecast China’s coastal thermal coal market continued to move up in the past week, as mines suspension for the CCI China Thermal Coal Index $/t ongoing parliamentary sessions reduced delivery to 100.00 CCI 5500 Import CCI 4700 Import northern ports. The Index 80.00 On March 14, the Fenwei CCI 5500 index was 382 yuan/t with VAT, FOB Qinhuangdao, rising 3.5 yuan/t on 60.00 week, and the Fenwei CCI 5000 index edged up 2 yuan/t to 342.5 yuan/t. 40.00 On the same day, the Fenwei CCI 5500 Import index 20.00 rose $0.8/t from the previous week to $46/t; the Fenwei 14/Mar/15 14/Sep/15 14/Mar/16 CCI 4700 Import index rose $0.3/t to $41.3/t, and the Fenwei CCI 3800 Import index rose $0.5/t from the week ago to $30.7/t. Lately in the market Yuan/t CCI China Thermal Coal Index Though downstream end users showed inactive 550.00 CCI 5500 CCI 5000 buying interest, the market still saw 2-3 yuan/t uptick in 500.00 spot thermal coal prices over the past week. 450.00 Offers were range-bound at 380-385 yuan/t FOB for 400.00 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR cargoes with 0.8% sulfur, and 340-345 yuan/t for the same sulfur 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal, both up 350.00 5 yuan/t on week. 300.00 The underlying boost was continued tight supply and 250.00 shipment amid mines suspension during the two 14/Mar/15 14/Sep/15 14/Mar/16 parliamentary sessions over March 2-16, as well as increased buying from utilities to meet electricity demand as factories returned to operation. QHD-GZ freight rate Miners in Inner Mongolia maintained low stocks and Yuan/t 80.00 demand-based production, while producers in Shaanxi and QHD-GZ Freight Shanxi kept offer prices firm amid production halts. Coal stocks at power plants under the six coastal 60.00 utilities edged down 9.5% from the previous week to 11.11 40.00 million tonnes on March 14, enough to cover 19 days of consumption, 5 days less than a week ago; daily coal use 20.00 rose 13.7% on week to 0.59 million tonnes. Australian 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR cargoes saw some 0.00 uptick in offers, which hovered at $43-44/t FOB for April 14/Mar/15 14/Sep/15 14/Mar/16 delivery, up $1-1.5/t on week. It translates to $47-48/t CFR Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange. South China ports when plus a freight rate of $4/t. Production cuts by Indonesian miners underpinned offers for 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR material at $27.5/t FOB, while Fenwei replaced the previous Fenwei/Platts CCI index series with the new few inquiries were seen for the 4,700 Kcal/kg NAR coal, Fenwei CCI indexes for thermal and met. coal assessments on August 3, 2015, with historical data available at the Weekly Supplement and on our which was offered at $38-39/t. website (http://en.sxcoal.com) later, to maintain coverage of the Chinese Forecast domestic and import market. Slow resumption of coal mines in production bases Fenwei reserves all tights to the CCI indexes and cannot be held and seasonal rise in coal burns at utilities are expected to responsible for any losses committed by using or referencing the indexes. lend some support to the domestic thermal coal market. Though Fenwei strives to do so, it does not guarantee the accuracy or timing of the indexes under any conditions. Yet, the shrink in coal used for heating purpose and potential increase in hydropower in the south may create Any questions or feedbacks, please contact us by [email protected]. negative effects. China Coal Resource (CCR) Page 2 of 12 http://en.sxcoal.com China Coal Weekly Weekly China coking coal analysis and forecast CR China Coking Coal Index China’s coking coal market was roughly stable last Yuan/t Price Index Stock Index week; prices saw a slight increase in Shanxi while further 1800 160 stabilized in Shandong and Hebei. 120 The Index 1200 80 The CR China Coking coal price Index (CRCP) was 622 600 yuan/t on March 14, flat on week; while the CR China 40 Coking Coal Socks Index (CRCS) was 83.1 points, down 2.8% 0 0 14-Mar-14 14-Mar-15 14-Mar-16 on week. Lately in the market Coking coal market was roughly stable in Shanxi during CCI Met Liulin the past week. Only certain coal varieties saw price rises in some areas, with the largest increase less than 30 yuan/t. Yuan/t Low Sulfur High Sulfur 650 Market sources attributed the increase mainly to tight supply resulted from poor operation in small and medium 550 mines after the Chinese Lunar New Year. 450 At present, only 30-40% of the coal mines in Luliang 350 resumed production; operation rate in Jincheng also stayed 250 low, as small mines generally resumed production after 14-Jan-16 14-Feb-16 14-Mar-16 March 10 (the 2nd day of the 2nd lunar month this year). On March 14, the Fenwei CCI Liulin Premium index assessed ex-washplant price of Liulin low-sulphur primary CCI Met Lingshi Fat Coal Yuan/t coking coal at 520 yuan/t with VAT; while CCI Liulin 550 High-sulpfur index was 395 yuan/t, both flat on week.
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