National Mission on Himalayan Studies (NMHS)
NMHS Annual Progress Report – Pro forma
Kindly fill the NMHS Annual Progress Report segregated into the following 11 segments, as applicable to your project nature and outcomes. 1. Project Information 2. Project Site Details 3. Project Activities Chart w.r.t. Timeframe [Gantt or PERT] 4. Financial and Resource Information 5. Equipment and Asset Information 6. Expenditure Statement and Utilization Certificate (UC) 7. Project Beneficiary Groups 8. Project Progress Summary (as applicable to the project) 9. Project Linkages (with nearby Institutions/ State Agencies) 10. Additional (publication, recommendations, etc.) 11. Project Concluding Remark Please let us know in case of any query at: [email protected]
Page 1 of 6 NMHS Progress Report (Period from 31 March 2017 to 31 December 2018)
1. Project Information
Project ID: NMHS/2016-17/MG14/07 Sanction Date: 31 March 2017
Project Title: Developing Disaster Resilience Action Plan through GIS and Prioritizing the Actions for Natural Disaster Risk Reduction for Urban Agglomerations of Shillong and Gangtok BTG: Sustainable Management of Land & Water Resources
PI and Dr Ajit Tyagi, Senior Advisor, Integrated Research and Action for Affiliation Development (IRADe), New Delhi-110017. Email: [email protected]; (Institution): [email protected]. Mobile: 9313982396
Name & Mr Rohit Magotra, Deputy Director, Integrated Research and Action for Address of the Development (IRADe), New Delhi-110017. Email: [email protected]. Co-PI, if any: Mobile: 9871613840
Structured Methodologies have been developed for flood hazard mapping, Abstract - seismic hazard mapping, landslide hazard zonation, and for detailing the development of geospatial database at 1:4000 scale. The document current year detailing the methodologies developed has been attached in progress : Annexure 1. Procurement of satellite images (Worldview-2/3) has been done for the two project cities Gangtok and Shillong. Extraction of building footprints and roads using Worldview-2/3 images for both the project cities completed. Vetting and Ground Truthing of maps for Gangtok has been done. Development of land use maps for both the project cities is in progress. Development of baseline spatial database is in progress. Stakeholders’ workshop was conducted in Shillong on 12 June 2018. Proceedings of the Workshop is attached as Annexure 2. Capacity building of students of Dept. of Environmental Studies, North Eastern Hill University (NEHU), Shillong was carried out for conducting the ground surveys to assess the impact of urbanization on increasing the vulnerability of people to disasters, through in- person lectures, and remote skype sessions. In addition, applications of Remote Sensing and GIS for disaster management was demonstrated to them through an invited lecture titled “Developing Disaster Resilience Action Plan using GIS and Prioritizing Actions for Disaster Risk Reduction in Urban Agglomerations of Shillong” by Dr Mohit Kumar on 30 August 2018. A questionnaire has been developed indigenously for assessing the impact of urbanization on the vulnerability of the cities to natural disasters through community-based surveys. The questionnaire is Page 2 of 6 attached in Annexure 3. Survey and data collection through questionnaire in 7 wards of Gangtok Municipal Corporation has been completed. Through survey, urbanization induced vulnerable areas have been identified in ward 3 and 4. GPS coordinates of vulnerable areas have been recorded. A ground truthing exercise was conducted in Gangtok during 19-22 November 2018 to validate the maps prepared; and for collection of secondary information related to engineering properties of soil, bearing capacity, adequate foundation depth required, capacity of the major storm water drainage etc. A draft template has been developed for the action plan. Awareness to the participants and public through counselling and mock drill exercises was carried out in Gangtok. A stakeholders’ list has been prepared for the two project cities separately. A paper titled “Disaster Resilience Assessment in Himalayan Cities: Shillong and Gangtok” has been prepared and submitted to NMHS “National Seminarcum-Monitoring Workshop”. A copy of the paper is attached in Annexure 4. A project brochure was prepared and distributed among stakeholders. The brochure is attached in the Annexure 5. A stakeholder’s workshop was organized at Gangtok on 06 February 2018. The proceedings of the workshop has been given in Annexure 6. An inception workshop was organized at NESAC, Shillong on 25 August 2017. The proceedings of the workshop and the list of the participants are attached in Annexure 7. An official visit was undertaken during 10 to 13 October 2017 to meet the state officials in Gangtok. The officials visited include the Mayor of the city, Assistant Director of Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority (SSDMA), Additional Director, Sikkim State Remote Sensing Applications Cell of DST, and the Director of Geological Survey of India (GSI), Sikkim Unit. RVA of the two cities were completed and the documents for the two project cities (documenting the RVA carried out) have been developed. These documents have been attached in the Annexure 8 and 9. A background paper (Annexure 11) has been developed documenting the various aspects of disaster management in the two cities with specific focus on the approach and methodology followed in this project, rapid vulnerability assessment (RVA) of the two cities to specific disasters and the impacts of future climate change projections on the two cities.
Page 3 of 6 Project Affiliations Role & Responsibilities Partner Name 1. Dr Ajit Senior Advisor, • Lead Consortium partner and management Tyagi/Mr IRADe/Deputy support for the Consortium Rohit Director, IRADe Review of the existing literature on the project Magotra cities related to the project topic Stakeholder mapping and establishing linkages with stakeholders Methodology development for the research project. Rapid Vulnerability analysis for Shillong and Gangtok. Identification of critical infrastructure and micro zonation on the scale of 1:4000. Vulnerable Zone mapping – on the basis of socio-economic parameters. Secondary research, secondary data collection, Designing socio-economic surveys and documentation. Designing questionnaires, survey design, city surveys, disaster risk reduction strategies, information collection and liaison, shared learning dialogues. Stakeholder consultations, organizing workshops. Managing Primary research and data analysis Drafting Disaster Risk Reduction strategies and action plan for disaster resilience for 2 cities. Synthesis of recommendations and policy analysis. Technical and Financial Reporting 2. Dr Diganta Scientist/Engineer, RemoteOutreach Sensing and communication and GIS methodology design Barman North Eastern Space Development of methodology for developing Applications Centre cadastral maps on scale of 1:4000. (NESAC), Shillong Landuse mapping on cadastral scale of 1:4000. Preparation of cadastral maps using GIS Collection of primary data for developing vulnerable zones and HRVA Developing disaster wise (floods, landslides etc.) micro zonation based atlas/maps for the region Decision support software system for the risk and vulnerable zones. Serve as nodal point for collecting data, organizing stakeholder-meeting consultations in Shillong.
Page 4 of 6 3. Dr Mithilesh Scientist "C" and Support in assessing impacts of urbanization Singh (upto SIC/Scientist “E” and on the ecosystems of cities through collecting Oct 2018)/Dr SIC environmental data, local surveys (water, air, Rajesh Joshi G. B. Pant National biodiversity etc.) in identified cities. (From Nov Institute of Community level consultations in Shillong and 2018) Himalayan Gangtok. Environment and Community consultations for disaster Sustainable resilience action plans. Development Mobilization of community based institutions (GBPNIHESD), for participatory planning. Sikkim Unit, Gangtok
2. Project Site Details
Project Site Shillong and Gangtok IHR States Covered Meghalaya and Sikkim Long. & Lat. Shillong (at the approx.. centre): 25.578 N, 91.892 E
Gangtok (at the approx.. centre): 27.343 N, 88.606 E Site Maps Given in Annexure 9 Site Photographs Given in Annexure 10
3. Project Activities Chart w.r.t. Timeframe [Gantt or PERT]
PROJECT WORK UNDERTAKEN ACTIVITIES Year (01/04/2018 to 31/01/2019) (Work Packages) OUTPUT Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4
WP1: Literature Completed. Review
WP 2: Secondary Multi-hazard RVA of two data collection vulnerable areas cities have been and analysis identified in Completed. [including rapid Gangtok based on vulnerability secondary assessment (RVA) information. of the two cities]
Page 5 of 6 WP3: Primary Survey and Through data collection data collection survey, through urbanization questionnaire induced in 7 wards of vulnerable Gangtok areas has been Municipal identified in Corporation ward 3 and 4. has been GPS completed. coordinates of vulnerable areas have been recorded. Analysis of survey data in progress. WP4: GIS and RS Methodologies Extraction of Vetting and Maps of have been building Ground building developed for footprints and Truthing footprints and flood hazard roads using for roads using mapping, seismic Worldview-2/3 Gangtok Worldview-2/3 hazard mapping, images for both has been images for both landslide hazard the project done the project zonation, and for cities cities development of completed. geospatial Development database at 1:4000 of land use scale. maps for both Procurement of the project satellite images cities is in (Worldview-2/3) progress. has been done for Development the two project of baseline cities Gangtok and spatial database Shillong. is in progress.
WP8: Stakeholders’ Proceedings of Stakeholder’s workshop was the Workshop Workshop conducted in is attached as Shillong on 12 Annexure 2. June 2018.
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PROJECT WORK UNDERTAKEN ACTIVITIES Year (31/03/2017 to 31/03/2018) (Work Packages) OUTPUT Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4
WP1: Literature In-depth review A background Review of various paper has been disasters in the developed two project documenting the cities, study of various aspects existing disaster of disaster management management in plans, various the two cities works related to with specific disaster focus on the management approach and carried out by methodology different followed in this agencies and project, rapid local municipal vulnerability corporations. assessment (RVA) of the two cities to specific disasters and the impacts of future climate change projections on the two cities.
Page 7 of 6 WP 2: Secondary Secondary Secondary data RVA of the two data collection data collection cities were and analysis collection involved completed and [including rapid involved collection of the documents vulnerability collection of reports, maps for the two assessment (RVA) reports, related to project cities of the two cities] maps related disasters in (documenting to disasters Gangtok the RVA carried in Shillong out) have been developed. (Annexures 8A and 8B)
WP3: Primary 1.Preliminary surveys Questionnaire data collection in both cities were (given in conducted for Annexure 3) has finalizing the been developed methodology and for assessing the questionnaires /data impact of sheets. urbanization on 2.Questionnaire has the vulnerability been developed for of the cities to assessing the impact natural disasters of urbanization on the through vulnerability of the community cities to natural based surveys. disasters through community based surveys.
Page 8 of 6 WP4: GIS and RS Different sets Methodologies have Procurement of of high-been developed for satellite data for resolution (30 flood hazard Shillong has cm to 70 cm) mapping, seismic been done. data have been hazard mapping, explored for landslide hazard Methodologies both Gangtok zonation, and for have been and Shillong. development of developed for The mapping geospatial database at hazard zonation work for 1:4000 scale. of two cities at Shillong is in 1:4000 scale. progress. In addition, Data procurement for Gangtok is in progress. WP8: Inception Proceedings of Stakeholder’s stakeholder’s the two Workshop workshop has been workshops have conducted in Shillong been developed. and Gangtok (Annexure 6 and 7)
4. Financial and Resource Information Note: A separate bank account is expected to be opened for NMHS Project as per the provision of Direct Beneficiary Account (DBA) as laid out by the Govt. of India and also facilitate the audit of accounts. The interest earned out of the NMHS project funds should be reported clearly in the utilization certificate.
Total Grant: Grant Received Date:
Project Affiliations/ Institution Budget Allocated to Work Done Partner(s) Partner 1 Partner 2 Partner 3 [Add]
Page 9 of 6
Project Staff Information:
S. No. Name Qualification Designation Fellowship/ Wages paid Remarks 1. Dr Mohit PhD Research Kumar Analyst
2. Mrs M. Plan. Senior Moumita Research Shaw Associate 3. 4.
5. Equipment and Asset Information
S. Equipment Details (Make/ Cost Date of Photographs Lowest No. Name Model) Installation of Equipment Quotation, (Qty) IF NOT purchased
1. Equipment 1 [Attach] 2. Equipment 2 [Attach] 3. Equipment 3 [Attach] [Add] [Add] [Attach]
6. Expenditure Statement and Utilization Certificate
Please update the annual Expenditure Statement and Utilization Certificate (UC) periodically.
Expenditure Information (April 2017 to Dec 2018):
S. No. Financial Position/Budget Head Funds Sanctioned Expenditure % of Total cost
I Salaries/Manpower cost 2113081.00 10,67,686.00 50.53 II Travel 764529.00 2,66,284.00 34.83 III Expendables &Consumables IV Contingencies 338445.00 1,85,634.00 54.85 V Activities & Other Project cost 2558000.00 4,36,541.00 17.07 VI Institutional Charges 0 23,750.00 VII Equipment 13,41,900.00 6,94,397.00 51.75 Total 71,15,955.00 26,74,292.00 37.58 Interest earned 12,806.00 Grand Total 71,28,761.00
Page 10 of 6 7. Project Beneficiary Groups
Beneficiary Groups Target Achieved [Capacity Building] No. of Beneficiaries with Not Applicable Not Applicable income generation: No. of stakeholders trained, Total: 150 Total: 131 particularly women: Women: 60 Women: 39 No. of capacity building Workshops/ Local stakeholders Three stakeholders’ workshops trainings: including government have been conducted, Two in officials, NGOs, local Shillong and One in Gangtok. A communities lecture has been organized for the students of Dept. of Environmental Studies, North Eastern Hill University (NEHU), Shillong was carried out for conducting the ground surveys to assess the impact of urbanization on increasing the vulnerability of people to disasters.
No. of Awareness & outreach Local stakeholders Capacity building of students of programmes: including government Dept. of Environmental Studies, officials, NGOs, local North Eastern Hill University communities (NEHU), Shillong was carried out for conducting the ground surveys to assess the impact of urbanization on increasing the vulnerability of people to disasters, through in-person lectures, and remote skype sessions. In addition, applications of Remote Sensing and GIS for disaster management was demonstrated to them through an invited lecture titled “Developing Disaster Resilience Action Plan using GIS and Prioritizing Actions for Disaster Risk Reduction in Urban Agglomerations of Shillong” by Dr Mohit Kumar on 30 August 2018. No. of Research/ Manpower developed:
8. Project Progress Summary (as applicable to the project)
Page 11 of 6
Description Total (Numeric) Description
IHR States Covered 2 Two cities, viz. Shillong (Meghalaya) and Gangtok (Sikkim) in two IHR states are being studied with a view to develop disaster resilience action plan for them. Project Site/ Field Stations Not Applicable Not Applicable Developed:
No. of Patents filed Not Applicable Not Applicable (Description):
Article/ Review/ Research 6 1. Proceedings of Stakeholder’s Workshop held Paper/ Publication: in Shillong on 12 June 2018 attached in Annexure 2. 2. A paper titled “Disaster Resilience Assessment in Himalayan Cities: Shillong and Gangtok” has been prepared and submitted to NMHS “National Seminarcum- Monitoring Workshop”. A copy of the paper is attached in Annexure 4. 3. Proceedings of Stakeholder’s Workshop held in Gangtok on 6 February 2018 attached in Annexure 6. 4. Proceedings of Inception Workshop held in Shillong on 25 August 2017 attached in Annexure 7. 5. RVA of the two cities were completed and the documents for the two project cities (documenting the RVA carried out) have been developed. These documents have been attached in the Annexure 8A and 8B.
New Methods/ Modellings Methodologies have been developed for Developed (description in 250 flood hazard mapping, seismic hazard words): mapping, landslide hazard zonation, and for development of geospatial database at 1:4000 scale. The document detailing the methodologies developed has been attached in Annexure 1.
Page 12 of 6 No. of Trainings Total: 131 Three stakeholders’ workshops have been (No. of Beneficiaries): Women: 39 conducted, Two in Shillong and One in Gangtok. A lecture has been organized for the students of Dept. of Environmental Studies, North Eastern Hill University (NEHU), Shillong was carried out for conducting the ground surveys to assess the impact of urbanization on increasing the vulnerability of people to disasters.
Workshop: 3 Stakeholders’ workshop was conducted in Shillong on 12 June 2018 and 25 August 2017; and in Gangtok on 6 February 2018.
Demonstration Models (Site): Not Applicable Not Applicable Livelihood Options: Not Applicable Not Applicable Training Manuals: Not Applicable Not Applicable Processing Units: Not Applicable Not Applicable Species Collection: Not Applicable Not Applicable Species identified: Not Applicable Not Applicable Database/ Images/ GIS Maps: In Progress The vulnerability maps of two cities indicating vulnerability of various city areas to various disasters is under preparation.
Note: Photos/ maps should be attached in high quality in compatible formats viz., JPEG, .JPG, .PNG, .SHP, etc. along with a suitable figure legend/ caption.
9. Project Linkages (with nearby Institutions/ State Agencies)
S. No. Institute/ Organization Type of Linkages Brief Description 1 Government of Formal, advisory, The erstwhile Chief Minister Meghalaya and (CM) of Meghalaya Shri Government of Sikkim Mukul Sangma was formally briefed about the project and he assured all the support needed from Govt. of Meghalaya for successful completion of the project.
Page 13 of 6 2 Shillong Municipal Information/Data/Knowledge SMC shall assist in Corporation (SMC) sharing/capacity building stakeholders’ engagement, capacity building of disaster management personnel and knowledge sharing. The outputs developed for Gangtok shall be given to Municipal Corporation for implementation on ground. 3 Meghalaya State Disaster Data/Maps/Reports sharing MSDMA shall provide the Management Authority reports/maps for Shillong (MSDMA) related to disaster management works carried out earlier. The outputs developed in the project for Gangtok shall be delivered to MSDMA for ground-level implementation. 4 Gangtok Municipal Information/Data/Knowledge GMC shall assist in Corporation (GMC) sharing/capacity building, stakeholders’ engagement, Stakeholder engagement capacity building of disaster management personnel and knowledge sharing. The outputs developed for Gangtok shall be given to Municipal Corporation for implementation on ground. 5 Sikkim State Disaster Data/Maps/Reports sharing SSDMA shall provide the Management Authority reports/maps for Gangtok (SSDMA) related to disaster management works carried out earlier. The outputs developed in the project for Gangtok shall be delivered to SSDMA for ground-level implementation. 6 Urban Development and Formal, knowledge/maps/data A collaboration has been Housing Department sharing established with UDHD for (UDHD), Govt. of Sikkim exchange of data/maps for Gangtok. These maps shall include urban development maps of Gangtok at the scale of 1:4000. 7 Water Security and Public Formal, knowledge/maps/data The Water Security & PHE Health Engineering sharing Department shall provide us Department, Govt. of the maps/reports for drainage Sikkim in the Gangtok city.
Page 14 of 6 8 Sikkim State Remote Formal, data/knowledge The Centre has agreed to Sensing Applications sharing help the project by providing Centre, DST Sikkim necessary remote sensing data and training, especially the UAV data. 9 North-Eastern Hill Knowledge sharing/resource Provision of knowledge, University (NEHU) sharing/capacity building manpower and other resources for project related works 10 United Nations Experience sharing, stakeholder Sharing of local experience Development Programme engagement with similar work carried out (UNDP) earlier in NE region 11 Helping Hands Capacity building Helping Hands is an NGO based in Gangtok, which is very active in disaster management work. These people come from local communities and the training provided to them through this project shall be very useful for developing disaster resilience in local people.
10. Additional (publication, recommendations, etc.)
Time Period Publications (Research Papers, Information Material, Policy drafts, Patents, etc.)
Annual [Year 2018-2019] A paper titled “Disaster Resilience Assessment in Himalayan Cities: Shillong and Gangtok” has been prepared and submitted to NMHS “National Seminar cum-Monitoring Workshop”. A copy of the paper is attached in Annexure 4. Stakeholders’ workshop was conducted in Shillong on 12 June 2018. Proceedings of the Workshop is attached as Annexure 2.
11. Project Concluding Remark
Kindly update the following Progress Parameters for the Reporting Period:
Progress made Project Project against Remarks Objectives Output Monitoring against each Indicators objective (specified in Sanction Letter)
Page 15 of 6 1. To develop cadastral Extraction of • Hazard and Procurement of satellite maps for scale of 1:4000 building footprints Vulnerability images (Worldview-2/3) has and map the and roads using Assessment based been done for the two project hazard/disaster wise Worldview-2/3 Cadastral Maps cities Gangtok and Shillong. vulnerable zones of the images for both the developed (Nos.): Extraction of building Shillong and Gangtok project cities In progress footprints and roads using urban agglomerations. completed. Worldview-2/3 images for Development of both the project cities land use maps for completed. both the project Development of land use cities is in progress. maps for both the project cities Development of is in progress. baseline spatial Development of baseline database is in spatial database is in progress progress
2. To identify and map A questionnaire has been critical infrastructure at developed indigenously for risk through ground assessing the impact of surveys – urbanization on the telecommunication, vulnerability of the cities to emergency operation natural disasters through centres, shelter, slums, community-based surveys. hospitals, schools etc. on The questionnaire is cadastral maps of attached in Annexure 3. 1:4000. Survey and data collection through questionnaire in 7 wards of Gangtok Municipal Corporation has been completed. Through survey, urbanization induced vulnerable areas have been identified in ward 3 and 4. GPS coordinates of vulnerable areas have been recorded.
Page 16 of 6 3. To develop a disaster Draft template has • Disaster Resilience A draft template has been resilience action plan for been developed for Action Plan developed for the action plan. the identified cities and the action plan developed (Nos.) prioritise actions for disaster risk reduction through multi- stakeholder consultations involving citizens, government, public and private sector.
4. To spread awareness Stakeholders’ • Multi-stakeholders' Proceedings of all the and capacity building of workshop was Consultation workshops are provided in citizens, city, district and conducted in Workshops (No.): annexures 2, 6 and 7. state authorities on Shillong on 12 June 3 disaster resilience of the 2018 and 25 August
North East Region 2017 and in Gangtok Cities. on 6 February 2018
Methodology (in The various steps of methodology are enumerated below: brief): Literature Review Rapid Vulnerability Assessment using Smart H-I-G-S Framework Land Use and Land Cover Mapping, Hazard Risk Mapping & Vulnerable Zone Identification Data collection related to urban parameters and environment & Analysis Mapping Hazard Risk and vulnerable zones of the city Action plan for Developing Disaster Resilience of 2 identified cities Capacity Building Workshops Result Dissemination and Policy Recommendations Major Research Procurement of satellite images (Worldview-2/3) has been done for the Achievements: two project cities Gangtok and Shillong. Extraction of building footprints and roads using Worldview-2/3 images for both the project cities completed. Stakeholders’ workshop was conducted in Shillong on 12 June 2018 and 25 August 2017, and in Gangtok on 6 February 2018. Proceedings of the Workshop is attached as Annexure 2, 6 and 7. Survey and data collection through questionnaire in 7 wards of Gangtok Municipal Corporation has been completed. Through survey, urbanization induced vulnerable areas have been identified in ward 3 and 4. GPS coordinates of vulnerable areas have been recorded. A paper titled “Disaster Resilience Assessment in Himalayan Cities: Shillong and Gangtok” has been prepared and submitted to NMHS “National Seminar cum-Monitoring Workshop”. A copy of the paper is attached in Annexure 4.
Page 17 of 6 Brief Conclusion Methodologies have been developed for flood hazard mapping, seismic hazard - the current year mapping, landslide hazard zonation, and for development of geospatial progress – database at 1:4000 scale. The document detailing the methodologies developed during the has been attached in Annexure 1. reporting period Procurement of satellite images (Worldview-2/3) has been done for the two (point-wise): project cities Gangtok and Shillong. Extraction of building footprints and roads using Worldview-2/3 images for both the project cities completed. Vetting and Ground Truthing of maps for Gangtok has been done. Development of land use maps for both the project cities is in progress. Development of baseline spatial database is in progress. Stakeholders’ workshop was conducted in Shillong on 12 June 2018. Proceedings of the Workshop is attached as Annexure 2. Capacity building of students of Dept. of Environmental Studies, North Eastern Hill University (NEHU), Shillong was carried out for conducting the ground surveys to assess the impact of urbanization on increasing the vulnerability of people to disasters, through in-person lectures, and remote skype sessions. In addition, applications of Remote Sensing and GIS for disaster management was demonstrated to them through an invited lecture titled “Developing Disaster Resilience Action Plan using GIS and Prioritizing Actions for Disaster Risk Reduction in Urban Agglomerations of Shillong” by Dr Mohit Kumar on 30 August 2018. A questionnaire has been developed indigenously for assessing the impact of urbanization on the vulnerability of the cities to natural disasters through community-based surveys. The questionnaire is attached in Annexure 3. Survey and data collection through questionnaire in 7 wards of Gangtok Municipal Corporation has been completed. Through survey, urbanization induced vulnerable areas have been identified in ward 3 and 4. GPS coordinates of vulnerable areas have been recorded. A ground truthing exercise was conducted in Gangtok during 19-22 November 2018 to validate the maps prepared; and for collection of secondary information related to engineering properties of soil, bearing capacity, adequate foundation depth required, capacity of the major storm water drainage etc. A draft template has been developed for the action plan. Awareness to the participants and public through counselling and mock drill exercises was carried out in Gangtok. A stakeholders’ list has been prepared for the two project cities separately. A paper titled “Disaster Resilience Assessment in Himalayan Cities: Shillong and Gangtok” has been prepared and submitted to NMHS “National Seminar cum-Monitoring Workshop”. A copy of the paper is attached in Annexure 4. A project brochure was prepared and distributed among stakeholders. The brochure is attached in the Annexure 5. A stakeholder’s workshop was organized at Gangtok on 06 February 2018. The proceedings of the workshop has been given in Annexure 6. An inception workshop was organized at NESAC, Shillong on 25 August 2017. The proceedings of the workshop and the list of the participants are attached in Annexure 7. An official visit was undertaken during 10 to 13 October 2017 to meet the state officials in Gangtok. The officials visited include the Mayor of the city, Assistant Director of Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority (SSDMA), Additional Director, Sikkim State Remote Sensing Applications Cell of DST, and the Director of Geological Survey of India (GSI), Sikkim Unit. RVA of the two cities were completed and the documents for the two project cities (documenting the RVA carried out) have been developed. These documents have been attached in the Annexure 8A and 8B.. Page 18 of 6 Progress Achieved 40% (%): Remaining work to 60% be done:
Submitted to: Submitted by: Nodal Officer, NMHS-PMU Project PI (Signature): National Mission on Himalayan Studies (NMHS) Institution (Seal): G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment and Dated (dd/mm/yy): Sustainable Development, Kosi-Katarmal, Almora 263643, Uttarakhand E-mail: [email protected]
Please fill the NMHS Progress Report pro forma as applicable with respect to time and other requirements and return via post/ e-mail. In case of any query, please contact at: [email protected]
Page 19 of 6 DEVELOPING METHODOLOGY FOR GIS & REMOTE SENSING APPLICATIONS IN RISK MANAGEMENT
1. Flood hazard mapping:
a. Data requirement for modeling: High resolution Digital Elevation Model Detailed stormwater drainage map of the city with details of length of the channel/pipe, width and depth of the channel, diameter of pipes, depth of manholes and gully gratings and material of channel/pipes. Satellite imagery for identification of buildings, streams, channels and land use types. Historical rainfall data Flood prone locations Discharge data for validation of the built model
b. Methodology: Urban flood modeling is carried out using the most widely used MIKE FLOOD model. This model comprises of two components i.e. MIKE 11 and MIKE 21. The model principle is based on the standard Saint Venant Equation. The MIKE 11 models one- dimensional flow component and MIKE 21 models two-dimensional flow component. All the input data such as river networks, cross-sections, boundary conditions and hydrodynamic parameters are given in MIKE 11 model. The overland flow is taken care by MIKE 21, hence high resolution DEM is given as input to MIKE 21. The coupling of 1D and 2D model is done using MIKE FLOOD model. Calibration and validation of the models are carried out with the help of observed discharge data. Based on the model simulation the flood affected locations are identified and flood hazard maps are developed. Below figure shows the methodology involved in hydrodynamic modeling for the selected study area.
River Cross- Boundary HD Flood Plain Topography HD Network sections Conditions parameters (DEM/DSM) parameters
Simulation of 1-D flow MIKE 21 (MIKE 11)
Coupling of 1D-2D flow model in MIKE FLOOD by selecting suitable Calibration & boundary condition from Validation MIKE 11 and bathymetry of the flood plain
Simulation of 1D-2D flow
Identification of Vulnerable areas
Flood Hazard Maps
Figure 1: Flowchart showing the details of the methodology involved in hydrodynamic modeling
2. Seismic hazard
Seismic hazard describes the potential for dangerous, earthquake related natural phenomena such as ground shaking, fault rupture, soil liquefaction. These phenomena could result in adverse consequences, such as the destruction of buildings and loss of lives
GSHAP Hazard Map of Sikkim: According to GSHAP data, the state of Sikkim falls in a region of high seismic hazard
Figure 2: Flowchart showing the details of the methodology involved in seismic microzonation for Shillong and Gangtok
Approaches for Seismic Hazard Mapping
• The deterministic and the probabilistic are the two commonly used approaches for the seismic hazard analysis.
• In the deterministic approach, the value of a hazard parameter of interest is estimated for a specified earthquake magnitude assumed to occur at a fixed source-to-site distance. However, a single scenario earthquake is not able to provide a true picture of the seismic hazard at a site because different combinations of magnitude and distance contribute more significantly in different frequency bands. On the other hand, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach takes into account the effects of all the earthquakes by considering the inherent random nature of earthquake magnitude, recurrence time, and epicentral location as well as that of the amplitude of the hazard parameter of interest .
3. Landslide Hazard Zonation
Figure 3: Flowchart showing the details of the methodology involved in LHZ for Shillong and Gangtok
DEVELOPING SURVEY METHODOLOGY AND BASE –LINE DATA BASE
Figure 4: Methodology for creation of Geospatial Database (1:4000)
Figure 5: Methodology for creation of Ground Control points
Figure 5: Methodology for Generation of Digital Cadastre
COLLECTION OF SATELLITE IMEGERIES TO DEVELOP CADASTRAL AND LAND-USE MAPS
Different sets of high resolution (30 cm to 70 cm) data have been explored for both Gangtok and Shillong. The mapping work for Shillong is in progress. Data procurement for Gangtok is in progress. The datasets for the two cities will be prepared with sensors such as KOMPSAT, WORLD VIEW - 2/3, SUPERVIEW ETC.
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Table of Contents BACKGROUND ...... 3 AIM ...... 3 OBJECTIVES ...... 3 PARTNERS ...... 3 PROJECT APPROACH ...... 3 EXPECTED OUTPUTS ...... 4 OUTCOMES ...... 4 STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP ...... 4 WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS ...... 4 INAUGRAL SESSION ...... 4 PRE-LUNCH SESSION ...... 5 POST-LUNCH SESSION ...... 6 ANNEXURE ...... 8 ANNEXURE A: AGENDA OF THE WORKSHOP ...... 8 ANNEXURE B: LIST OF PARTICIPANTS ...... 9 ANNEXURE C: PHOTOGRAPHS FROM THE WORKSHOP ...... 12
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BACKGROUND Himalayan cities are particularly vulnerable to disasters and extreme events like earthquakes, landslides, flash floods, thunderstorms and cold waves. The magnitude of hazards and extreme events in the region may vary depending on the risk exposure of the city.
Physical risks and vulnerabilities in the Himalayan cities are often accompanied by difficult terrain, lack of necessary resources – financial, human and institutional – as well as lack of access to relevant scientific information on the coping mechanism. This necessitates a thrust on improving the knowledge base and adaptive capacity of the cities by integrating disaster risk reduction measures in the urban planning.
In addition, rapid urbanization and climate change could exacerbate environmental stress in the region. Thus, there is a need to collect and review evidence to assess the vulnerability and likely impact of disasters in the region. IRADe with support from Ministry of Environment, Forests & Climate Change (MoEFCC) under National Mission on Himalayan Studies (NMHS) aims to develop Disaster Resilience Action Plans for Shillong and Gangtok cities.
AIM To provide decision-supporting tools for disaster risk reduction in the urban areas of the North East Region. It includes development of cadastral maps for micro zonation of hazard and action plan for disaster resilience for Shillong & Gangtok.
OBJECTIVES Develop cadastral maps at the scale of 1:4000 and map hazard/ risk wise vulnerable zones of Shillong and Gangtok urban agglomerations. Conduct ground survey to Identify and map critical infrastructure – telecommunication installations, emergency operation centers, shelter homes, slums, hospitals & schools, Develop disaster resilience action plan for the identified cities and prioritize actions for disaster risk reduction through multi-stakeholder consultations involving citizens, government, public and private sector. Spread awareness and raise capacity of the citizens as well as city, district and state authorities.
PARTNERS The research is led by Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), a leading research institute and think tank with consortium members including North-Eastern Space Applications Centre (NESAC), Meghalaya and Institute G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment & Sustainable Development, ( GBPNIHESD ), Almora.
PROJECT APPROACH
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EXPECTED OUTPUTS Land use/land cover maps for Shillong & Gangtok cities at cadastral scale 1:4000. Hazard wise vulnerable zone maps of the cities. Vulnerability assessment of Shillong & Gangtok cities to natural disasters. Critical infrastructure risk mapping for the cities. Disaster resilience plans for the Shillong & Gangtok. Capacity building of city, district and state authorities on disaster resilience.
OUTCOMES The outcomes of the project will help in developing policies for reducing the risk of losses in the events of natural disasters in the two cities.
Generate awareness amongst stakeholders such as policy makers, state government, local governing bodies, government departments, NGOs, communities/citizens about the disaster risk reduction to reduce losses. Address lack of coordination and bring all stakeholders to one platform, leveraging IRADe’s experience, expertise and strong local network. Craft and prioritize city-specific actions for disaster risk reduction. The project will lead to capacity building of the local mountain communities in disaster risk reduction by imparting them the necessary knowledge and information through social networking and public participation in workshops.
STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP A stakeholders’ workshop on “Developing Disaster Resilience Action Plan through GIS and Prioritizing Actions for natural Disaster Risk Reduction in Shillong” was organized by the project proponent, Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) in collaboration with North-Eastern Space Applications Centre (NESAC), Meghalaya and G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment and Sustainable Development (GBPNIHESD), Sikkim Regional Center at Summit Denzong, Gangtok. The project is supported by the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change (MoEF&CC), Government of India under the NMHS Programme.
The primary objective of the workshop was to bring together the stakeholders at the Shillong city level at the same platform to understand the aim of the project, which is to provide decision-supporting tools for disaster risk reduction in the urban areas of the North East Region of India, development of maps at the scale of 1:4000 scale for micro zonation of hazard and action plan for disaster resilience for Shillong and Gangtok.
The workshop was attended by participants from various departments of the urban local bodies and organizations viz., State Disaster Management Authority, Shillong, Meghalaya; MSDMA; United Nations Development Programme.
WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS INAUGRAL SESSION
The Workshop was inaugurated by Dr Ajit Tyagi, PI of the project, former DG of IMD and Senior Advisor, IRADe, Mr. PLN Raju, Director, NESAC, Rohit Magotra, Deputy Director, IRADe, and Co-PI of the project, Mr. H B Marak, Secretary, Revenue and Disaster Management Department, State Disaster Management Authority, Shillong, Meghalaya, Mr. P W Ingty, Additional
Chief Secretary, Revenue and Disaster Management Department, State Disaster Management Authority, Shillong, Meghalaya, Dr Ashish Pandey, Research Associate, GBPNIHESD
The session began with felicitation of dignitaries. Dr Ajit Tyagi, welcomed all the delegates to the workshop. In his welcome address, Dr Tyagi provided an overview of the project and highlighted the problems of urbanization in Himalayan cities. He stressed on developing resilience of Himalayan cities and emphasized on providing decision supporting tools to policy makers. He added that the project is an effort in this direction and shall provide vulnerability maps of the cities showcasing the areas of the city prone to different disasters. He thanked all the delegates for making it to the workshop inspite of recent disturbances in the city. All the participants then introduced themselves.
In his opening remarks, Mr. PLN Raju emphasized the importance of space technology for disaster management. He said that disasters have affected nearly 4.4 million people in our country and also have damaged property worth 2 billion dollars. Satellite 4 remote sensing technology is extremely useful for providing necessary data for disaster management. Govt. of India has allocated more than 11000 crores for launching satellites which will provide near real time data for disaster management. He specially emphasised that GISAT satellite will provide 50 m resolution data for disaster management. He further highlighted the necessity of developing early warning systems for predicting disasters like earthquake, flood and thunder storms. Some of the early warning systems have already been developed at North Eastern Space Applications Centre (NESAC).
Mr. Rohit Magotra briefed about the project and the highlighted the importance of GIS (Geographic Information System) in disaster management. He said that GIS has an important role to play in all the three stages of disaster management, viz., rescue, relief and rehabilitation. He emphasized the importance of critical infrastructure mapping for providing quick relief to disaster struck communities. As an example, he cited 2014 flood in Srinagar during which there were loss of telecommunication services in the city for almost 20 days hampering the relief efforts, which in turn leads to increase causalities.
The Guest of Honour, Mr. H B Marak in his address welcomed the project. He informed that a meeting of north-eastern states happened recently in NESAC to deliberate on the topic of how to make north east disaster resilience. He insisted that along with frequency, severity of the disasters is also increasing which in turn makes it all the more necessary to develop resilience of the city dwellers. He cited the flash floods in Shillong in 2014 which was also concurrent with several landslides incidences. He expressed his pleasure that the current project and its deliverables are much-needed steps for improving the disaster management not only in the city but also for the entire state. He suggested that GSI has also been involved in several such projects and should be consulted during the future course of actions. In addition, he predicted that the outputs of the project shall also be useful for other Himalayan cities.
Mr. P W Ingty delivered the Inaugural Address as the Chief Guest. He expressed that it’s a privilege to be associated with the event. He emphasized the importance of developing resilience to disasters in advance as disasters happen at a time and at a place where we do not have expect it or expect it the least. He expressed dissatisfaction that we don’t have any comprehensive disaster management plan for Shillong or any other city in the state. And that there is no infrastructural arrangement at the city level to minimize damage from disasters. He suggested that it is extremely important to include local communities as important stakeholders in the project right from the beginning as they are the ones affected the most in the case of a disaster. In addition, he assured all the help to the project for successful execution of the project.
Dr Ashish Pandey offered the vote of thanks to conclude the session.
PRE-LUNCH SESSION
Chair: Dr Ajit Tyagi PI of the project, former DG of IMD and Senior Advisor, IRADe
The first presentation was by Mr. Surajit Bordoloi, Consultant, MSDMA. He talked about various hazards and associated problems in the Shillong City. He noted that earthquakes, landslides, flash floods /urban floods, thunderstorms/lightening/hailstorms, have affected the city frequently in the past. Only avalanche and glacial floods have not affected the city. He informed the gathering that being a highly seismic zone, earthquakes are very frequent in the region. Even a day before the workshop, on 11 June 2018, there was an earthquake in nearby Nagaon area at 10.30 AM which measured 5.1 on Richter Scale. However, such quakes don’t get noticed much as their intensity remain low. However, the earthquakes with higher intensities have wreaked havoc in the city in the past. He highlighted that Shillong has very steep slopes with intense urban development, which makes the region very unstable. He noted that incidences of ‘Tree Fall’ have become very common in the last 2-3 years, which leads to heavy damage of life and property. Mushrooming of concrete buildings in the city in the recent decade, replacing the traditional Assam type of houses, has in turn made the whole area more vulnerable. With ever-increasing population, now there is frequent traffic jam in the city. There are narrow lanes and by-lanes with inhabiting population. All of this has increased the vulnerability of the city to disasters and the need of the hour is to have a hazard risk and vulnerability analysis (HRVA) of the city highlighting the pockets within the city where people are more vulnerable to particular disasters. He suggested that HRVA work carried out by North East Institute of Science and Technology (NEIST), Jorhat and NIT, Shillong should be consulted to synergise the project outputs.
The second presentation was by Mrs Maitreyee Mukherjee, City Coordinator, UNDP. She presented the work carried out so far in the project “Developing Risk Resilient Cities through Risk Reduction in the Context of Disasters and Climate Change”. This project has been funded by Government of India, United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and United Nations Development Program (UNDP). The project is of four years duration (2017-2020) and six cities have been selected for the project,
5 viz., Shillong, Cuttak, Visakhapatnam, Vijaywada, Shimla and Navi Mumbai. She informed that a Hazard-Risk-and-Vulnerability- Analysis (HRVA) of the city has been done by a Delhi based agency called RMSI and a risk atlas of the city has been produced. All these reports have been uploaded on East Khasi Hills website. In addition, there have been efforts to develop early warning system for various disasters in the city in collaboration with TARU Leading Edge PVT Ltd. A city portal has been planned to be developed in collaboration with Indian Institute of Human Settlements (IIHS), Bengaluru which will provide information about disasters to all the stakeholders.
The chair thanked the speakers for their insightful presentation and recommended that capacity-building programmes for developing disaster resilience should be conducted jointly by various agencies involved in such work like IRADe, MSDMA, UNDP etc. In addition, there should be city level EOCs (Emergency Operations Centre) for providing relief and information during the time of disasters.
POST-LUNCH SESSION
Chair: Mr. PLN Raju, Director, NESAC
Co-Chair: Prof Devesh Walia, Head, Department of Environmental Sciences, North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong
First presentation of the session was by Mr. Mohit Kumar, Senior Research Associate, IRADe and Mr. Rohit Magotra, Deputy Director, IRADe. IRADe team presented the Rapid Climate Vulnerability Assessment of Shillong City and circulated a document about this work to the participants. The vulnerability assessment of the city was done using HIGS framework. HIGS stands for H- Hazard Exposure, I – Infrastructure, G- Governance and S-Socio-economic variables. The framework has been developed at IRADe and is very useful for rapid assessment of the cities. The presenters also highlighted that the city has been expected to experience an increase of 10-15 % in rainfall in 2050, and needs to be prepared in advance. Presently, there is no sewerage system in the city and storm water is mixed with sewage while draining out. Therefore, there is a need to have separate systems for draining out storm out and sewage. In addition, there should be a sewage treatment plant in the city for treating the sewage before draining out. IRADe team also presented and distributed questionnaire developed for ‘assessing the impact of urbanization on natural ecosystem through community surveys’. The participants were requested to send their feedback on the questionnaire developed.
Next presentation was by Dr Diganta Barman, Scientist, NESAC. Dr Barman highlighted the methodology developed for mapping the vulnerability of the city to various disasters at a very fine scale of 1:4000. He informed that for achieving the purpose, a range of very high resolution satellite images have been procured. These images include recently launched Cartosat 2 F to World View 3 (WV-3). He showed some of the work carried out so far in this direction.
The last presentation of this session was by Dr Devendra Kumar, Scientist, GBPNIHESD. He presented the plans for assessing the socio-economic vulnerability of Shillong to disasters. He informed that a stakeholders workshop has already been conducted in Gangtok earlier, and primary surveys have been conducted in the two cities for assessing the socio-economic vulnerability.
An open floor discussion commenced after the presentations. Mr. Marak, Secretary, Revenue and Disaster Management Department, State Disaster Management Authority, Shillong, Meghalaya asked what the project suggests for improving the storm water drainage in the city. Mr. Magotra replied that the storm water drainage should be separated from sewage and there should be a sewage treatment plant in the city. Mr. Manoj Kayastha, of GSI wanted to know how correct are the predictions of increase in rainfall in 2050. Dr Tyagi replied that these projections are taken from IPCC RCP Scenarios and ofcourse there are uncertainties in the projections, they are accepted largely by the global community. There are efforts to reduce the uncertainties as the models are being downscaled from regional to local scales. There was also interest among the participants regarding landslide vulnerability analysis of the city. Mr. Marak suggested consulting GSI with regards to the work on landslides. Mr. Kayastha of GSI informed that GSI has been carrying out a project named “National Landslide Inventory Programme” to map the landslide vulnerable areas of entire country. He assured that GSI would help the project by providing reports, and knowledge base generated in NLIP project. He also informed that landslide inventory map of Shillong shall be available by next year. Co-chair Dr Walia suggested that the project should specially focus more on areas which are vulnerable to disasters within the city. He informed that NEIST (North East Institute of Science and Technology) has already completed GPS survey of Shillong city, and should be contacted for GPS survey data. In addition, he also suggested that epidemics in the city should also be studied through ground surveys. The chair Mr. Raju expressed his satisfaction at the fruitful discussion and hoped that the project will be able to
6 reduce the loss of life and property in disasters in Himalayan cities and the outputs of the project shall be valuable and replicable for other Himalayan cities as well.
The workshop ended with Vote of Thanks by Dr Diganta Barman.
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ANNEXURE ANNEXURE A: AGENDA OF THE WORKSHOP Stakeholder's Workshop on Developing Disaster Resilience Action Plan through GIS and Prioritizing Actions for Natural Disaster Risk Reduction in Urban Agglomerations of Shillong Date:12th June, 2018 Venue: ICSSR, NEHU Campus, Shillong
Time Sessions 10:00 AM - 10:30 AM Registration 10:30 AM - 11:30 AM Inaugural Session 10:30 AM - 10:35 AM Felicitation of the dignitaries (Prof. Ajit Tyagi, Mr. PLN Raju, Mr. Rohit Magotra, Chief Guest, Guest of honour 10:35 AM - 10:45 AM Welcome address by Prof. Ajit Tyagi, Former Director General, IMD & Senior Advisor, IRADe 10:45 AM - 10:50 AM Self Introduction by all participants 10:50 AM - 11:00 AM Opening remarks by Mr. PLN Raju, Director, NESAC 11:00 AM - 11:10 AM Remarks by Mr. Rohit Magotra, Deputy Director, IRADe 11:10 AM - 11:20 AM Address by Guest of Honour 11:20 AM - 11:30 AM Inaugural address by Chief Guest 11:30 AM - 11:35 AM Vote of Thanks by Dr. Ashish Pandey, Research Associate, GBPNIHESD 11:35 AM - 11:50 AM High Tea 11:50 AM - 1:00 PM Pre-Lunch session Chair: Prof. Ajit Tyagi 11:50 AM - 12:05 PM Talk on relevant hazards and other associated problems in Shillong city by Mr. Surajit Bordoloi, Consultant, MSDMA 12:05 PM - 12:20 PM Talk on relevant work done previously for Shillong City by Mrs Maitreyee Mukherjee, City Coordinator, UNDP 12:20 PM - 1:00 PM Open floor for discussion 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM Lunch 2:00 PM - 3:30 PM Post-Lunch session Chair: Mr. PLN Raju, Director, NESAC / Co Chair: Dr Devesh Walia, Head, Department of Environmental Sciences, North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong 2:05 PM - 2:30 PM Rapid Vulnerability Assessment of Shillong Mr. Mohit Kumar, Senior Research Associate, IRADe 2:30 PM - 2:50 PM Presentation on Hazard mapping component and project progress by Dr. Diganta Barman, Scientist, NESAC 2:50 PM - 3:10 PM Socio-economic vulnerability of Shillong to disasters Dr. Devendra Kumar, Scientist, GBPNIHESD 3:10 PM - 3:30 PM Open floor discussion 3:30 PM - 4:00 PM Concluding Remarks and Way Forward (By the chairs) 4:00 PM - 4:05 PM Vote of Thanks (Dr Diganta Barman, NESAC) + Evening Tea
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ANNEXURE B: LIST OF PARTICIPANTS
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ANNEXURE C: PHOTOGRAPHS FROM THE WORKSHOP
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© Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi
FOCUS GROUP DISCUSSION (FGD) SURVEY - IMPACT OF URBANISATION ON HAZARDS AND DISASTER
Namaste, My name is ………………………………..and I am from Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi. We are conducting a focus group discussion FGD on Disaster risk
reduction and Impact of Urbanisation in Your city. We would very much appreciate your participation in this survey. I would like to ask you some questions about community , Disaster , Social issues. The survey usually takes about 30 minutes to complete. Whatever information you provide will be kept strictly confidential. However, we hope that you will participate in this survey since your participation is important. At this time, do you want to ask me anything about the .survey? May I begin the interview now? The information would be used only for research purpose. 1. GENERAL INFORMATION 1a.Location details:
a Ward No. b Location/ Colony Name c City/Town 1c. Participation details
SL Name of Gen Age SL Name of Gend Age SL Name of Gend Age No. Participants der Gro No. Participants er Gro No. Participants er Grou up up p 1 9 17 2 10 18 3 11 19 4 12 20 5 13 21 6 14 22 7 15 23 8 16 24
2. Knowledge and information about Urbanisation and Impacts Description Code Description Code 1) Do you think climate of this 2) What may be the main reason for the same? place has been affected in Deforestation 1 Over exploitation of resources 5 last 2 decades ? Natural reason 2 Climate Change 6 Yes 1 Industrialization 3 Others 7 No 2 Urbanization 4 Do not know 8 (Please select 3 options based on priority)
3) What are the main 3 main hazards over the past 20 years? (Write in order codes of maximum 5 incidences) Fire (in forest) 1 Hailstorm 5 Drought 9 Fire (in community) 2 Landslide 6 Erosion 10 Flood/flash floods 3 Heat Wave 7 Others 11 Earthquake 4 Cold Wave 8
3. Temperature
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© Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi
Temperature 4) Temperature compared 5) Duration to 20 years before Summer Increased =1 20 years before Now Decreased=2 Month Week Month Week Stayed the same=3 Start Start Date: Date Winter Increased =1 Month Week Month Week Decreased=2 Start Start Stayed the same=3 Date: Date 4. Rainfall Rainfall 6) Rainfall volume 7) Duration compared to 20 years before Monsoon Increased =1 2 years before Now Decreased=2 Month Week Month Week Stayed the same=3 Start Start Date: Date Winter Rain Increased =1 Month Week Month Week Decreased=2 Start Start Stayed the same=3 Date: Date
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Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi
5. Information on Impact of Climate Change
S.N 10) Natural disasters 11) Have you ever 12) If yes, how has 13) To what extent these events 14) What could be the main reasons or events changes in experienced the it changed over the have impacted/affected you or for the occurrence of following (first identify the change in the past 20 years your family over the past 20 events over the past 20 years? main disaster events following events in Increased …. 1 years? (write the codes of main three of the locality) this area over the Decreased …2 Very low …1, reasons in priority) past 20 years? Low … 2, Yes…1 Moderate … 3, No…2, High ….4, Not applicable…3, Very high … 5
1 Fire (in forest) 2 Fire (in community) 3 Flood/flash floods 4 Earthquake 5 Hailstorm 6 Landslide 7 Heat Wave 8 Cold Wave 9 Drought 10 Erosion 11 Others *Low rainfall.1, Heavy rain.2, Increase in temperature.3, Decrease in temperature.4, Road construction.5, Urbanization.6, Deforestation.7, Over withdrawal of water.8, Earthquake. 9,Population increase ..10,Others ..11
6. Impact of urbanisation on vulnerability
Increased 1 No change 3 Decreased 2 Do not know 4
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Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi
7. Which areas are more vulnerable based on population density and critical areas for different types of disaster
S.No. Type of Hazard Area Name 1 Fire (in forest) 2 Fire (in community) 3 Flood/flash floods 4 Earthquake 5 Hailstorm 6 Landslide 7 Heat Wave 8 Cold Wave 9 Drought 10 Erosion 11 Others
8. Impact of Natural Disasters or Events
S.no Type of Had you or your family How many Did you and Did any of Death of family members over the past 5 years due to In past 5 Affected/Damaged Other Natural member(s) been days on members of the family the following disaster(s) years did residence (house losses disaster or affected due to average you your member(s) you or any land etc ) events damage in physical or your household die due to of your (please only infrastructures (road, household have food the impact Death number across age Death record as per sex family ask question irrigation schemes, members shortage due of following groups members based on etc.) due to following were not able to impact of disaster(s) bear any identified disaster(s) over the to work/ the following over the loss disaster in past 5 years? unemployed disaster(s) past 5 Yes 1 section 5 due to the over the past years? No 2 above Affected 1 following 5 years? Yes 1 disasters in 0-18 19- 60 years or Male Female Yes 1 Seen but No 2 past 5 years? years 59 above not affected 2 No 2 (days) year no disaster 3
1 Droughts 2 Fire (in forest) 3 Fire (in community)
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Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi
4 Flood/flash floods 5 Earthquake 6 Hailstorm 7 Landslide 8 Heat Wave 9 Cold Wave 10 Drought 11 Erosion 12 Others 9. Status of Water Resources (over the past 20 years)
What changes have you observed in amount of water in streams, rivers, rivulets and springs? Code Increased 1 No changes 3 Not Applicable 5
Decreased 2 Do not know 4
Have you noticed water quality deterioration in streams, rivers, rivulets and springs, piped water ? Increased 1 No changes 3 Not Applicable 5 Decreased 2 Do not know 4
If code 1 in the above what are the reasons?
Impact of Urbanization 1 Other type of water pollution 5 Old infrastructure 2 Rise in temperature of water body 6 Mixing of sewage line 3 Other 7 Dumping of waste in water bodies 4
What changes have you observed in water level in wells and ponds Increased 1 No changes 3 Has there been any changes in the duration of water flow in piped Decreased 2 Do not know 4 water that you have been using on daily basis? Have you noticed water quality deterioration in wells and ponds Yes 1 Have any streams, rivers, rivulets, or springs dried up. No 2
Mention the name of streams, rivers, rivulets, or springs or Area Do not know 3 Not applicable 4
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Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi
Are any tube wells, wells or hand pumps in state of drying up
Have any of the wells, tube wells, or ponds dried up
Have you noticed changes in the water sources over the past 20 years? Code Yes 1 No 2
If yes, what are the main reasons of changes in the water sources? (Write three main reasons in priority) Inadequate rainfalls 1 Road construction 6 Mining and excavation 9 Adequate rainfalls 2 Landslide/erosion 7 Population increase 10 Increase in temperature 3 Urbanization 8 Earthquake 11 Decrease in temperature 4 Deforestation 9 Other 12 Over withdrawal of water 5
10. Changes in Air Quality in last 20 years
What are views about the Air Quality of the City Code Bad….1 Satisfactory….2 Good……3 Excellent….4 Has the quality of air degraded in the last 20 years? Very poor 1 Satisfactory 4 Poor 2 Good 5 Moderate 3 Very Good 6
If yes, what do you think is the main reason for the degradation in the air quality Urbanization………………1 Higher no of vehicles…………2 Industries…………………..3 Decreased greenery/tree cover in the city……..4 Other (specify)…………..5 Have you faced difficulty in walking on roads due to air pollution any time during last few years? Yes 1 No 2
Is the air born disease cases increased due to poor quality of air in city ? Yes 1 No 2
Have you or your family members been sick due to any of the respiratory diseases/lung related disease during last five years? Yes 1 No 2
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Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi
11. Changes in Water Quality in last 20 years
Major source of water for the household use? Code How much water( in litre ) does your household utilize in a day for: Code Tap water –Municipality supply 1 Handpump 4 1. Drinking and Cooking Natural Springs 2 Other (specify 5 2. Domestic Use Private Water supply 3 3. Others
Is the water sufficient for HH use? Yes 1 No 2
If Yes How many hours do you get water daily water supply ? If No then how do you manage the additional requirement? Natural Springs 1 Manage with the available water 3 Less than 2 hour 1 6 to 12 hours 4 Buy from private vendors 2 Any Other (Please specify) 4 2 to 4 hour 2 More than 12 hour 5 4 to 6 hours 3
Current Water supply quality? If yes, what do you think is the main reason for the degradation in the water supply quality Bad 1 Good 3 Urbanization 1 Industries 3 Satisfactory 2 Excellent 4 Poor management of Municipality 2 Other (specify 4 Leakage of Sewage 5
Is the water supply quality degrade during last 5 / ten years? Yes 1 No 2
Is the water borne disease cases increased due to poor quality of Is the Loss of aquatic life in river due to sewage? water in city? Yes….1 No….2 Yes 1 No 2
12. Impact on Human Health Has the incidence of illness due to any Disease increased in your family over the past 20 years? Code Yes 1 No 2
Has the incidence of vector borne Disease increased in your family over last 20 years before? Yes 1 No 2
Pl list them……
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Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi
13. Status of Waste Problem, Waste Management, Storm water drainage in the city
In your locality is the domestic waste collection done by Code Is the domestic waste Disposal is problem? Code municipality? Yes….1 No…2 Yes….1 No…2 If yes, frequency of collection? If yes what is the reason? Daily….1 Ubranisation 1 Landfill site availability 4 Once in 2 days….2 Industrialization 2 Municipality – lack of staff 5 More than 2 days….3 Difficult terrain 3 Others 6
If no, where to you dump your waste ……………….. In your locality is the domestic waste collection done by municipality? Do you face difficulty in dumping the waste? Yes….1 No…2 Yes….1 No…2 Are there any landfill sites in vicinity of your locality? If yes, estimated distance of the landfill site from your area? Yes….1 No….2 Less than 2 km….1 2 to 4 Km……2 4 to 6 Km ………..3 Above 6 Km ….4 How much waste generated in your house per day ? Do you face any problem due to the landfill sites? Less than .5 kg….1 .5 to 1 kg……2 Bad smell 1 Air pollution 3 1kg to 1.5 kg…..3 Above 1.5 kg….4 Water logging due to 2 Other 4 waste/urban floods in the area No problem 5 during rains
Do you think urbanisation is the main factor for air pollution from Have you experienced the water logging/urban floods in your area? Yes….1 municipal waste? Yes….1 No….2 No….2 If yes, what do you think are the reasons? Urbanization 1 Difficult terrain 3 Municipality – lack of staff 5 Improper or no solid waste management 2 Improper and inadequate drainage system 4 Others 6
Do you know Ground water quality is degrade due to leachate at Ground water table and water quality of ground water degrade due to MSW disposal site Urbanization 1 Landfill site availability 4 Yes….1 No….2 Industrialization 2 Municipality – lack of staff 5 Difficult terrain 3 Others 6
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Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi
14. Impact of Urbanisation during last 10/ 20 years on natural Ecosystem
S.n Impact of Urbanisation on Did you feel changes in If yes, how quality has changed over the past 20 If yes, number/Quantity changed over the past 20 o the following in past 20 years years years? Yes 1 No 2 Highly degraded 1 Normal 4 Increased 1 Do not know 4 Degraded 2 Enhance 5 Decreased 2 Not Applicable 5 Stable 3 No changes 3
1 Soil 2 Land use 3 Forest 4 Biodiversity 5 Diversity index 6 Environmental hotspots 7 Diversity and Risk of Species in near areas 8 Flora – Fauna 9 Animals 10 Plants 11 Forests and wildlife 12 Agriculture 13 Horticulture 14 Livestock 15 Human health 16 Water Resources (streams, rivers, rivulets and springs) 17 Water ecosystem 18 Groundwater recharge
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Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi
15. Changes in green cover and urban biodiversity over the past 20 years
1 Has the tree cover/greenery in the city changed over the past 20 years Code Yes 1 No 2
2 Reason for the change in the tree cover/greenery in the city over the past 20 years? Urbanization 1 Increase in temperature 4 Increase in pests/diseases 7 Low rainfall 2 Decrease in temperature 5 Other (specify) 8 Heavy rain 3 Expansion of built area 6
3 Have you observed changes in aquatic animals in terms of? Decline in no of any species….1 increase in any species ….2 Extinction of any species….3 Any new species …………..4 4 If there is a decline/extinction of any species, please specify the reasons: Water pollution ………..1 Drying up of the water body….2 Loss of habitat…….3 Other………………4 5 Have you seen any wild animals within the city or observed incidences of man animal conflicts within city? Yes…1 No….2 6 If yes, what are the reasons? Urbanization in the forest area….1 Over exploitation and cutting of forests…….2 Increase in no of wild animals….3 Any other (specify)………….4
16. Access to media/ Communication during Disaster Do you read a newspaper or magazine? Every day, 1 At least once a week 2 Do you use mobile? How many family members have mobile? Yes 1 No 2 Do you listen to the radio or watch television? Every day 1 Less than once a week, 3 At least once a week, 2 not at all 4
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Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi
17. Early Warning Alerts information Do you know about Early warning Alerts for disasters? Yes 1 No 2 Do not know 3 If yes then how you come to know early warning Alerts for disasters
Mobile Alerts 1 Radio Alerts 2 Television Alerts 3 Loudspeaker Announcement Alerts 4 Social media on internet 5 If Yes when you received the alerts Before the Disaster 1 During the disaster 2 Immediate After the Disaster 3 Next day to Disaster If Yes Then you are satisfied with Early warning alerts system Yes 1 No 2 Cannot say 3 Need Improvement 4 Which of the following areas are your priorities for the improvement of your Early warning System ( EWS)?
Governance and Institutional Arrangements 1 Utilization of risk information in emergency planning and warnings 2 Hazard monitoring, forecasting, and mandates for warning development 3 Warning dissemination mechanisms 4 Emergency preparedness and response activities (national to local) 5
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Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi
Are you aware about emergency plans for disasters / rescue
Yes 1 No 2 Are you aware/actions to be made due to disaster to early warning?
Yes 1 No 2 Have you received any training haw to minimum damage during Disaster?
Yes 1 No 2 Do not know 3 Do you thing Urbanisation amplifies risk of natural disaster
Yes 1 No 2 Do not know 3 FGD details:
Date of FGD Time of FGD Place
***Thank you***
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DISASTER VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF HIMALAYAN CITIES - SHILLONG & GANGTOK Rohit Magotra*, Moumita Shaw, Jyoti Parikh, Ajit Tyagi, Mohit Kumar, Asha Kaushik, Mohit Kumar Gupta and Ananya Mukherjee Integrated Research & Action for Development (IRADe), C-80, Shivalik, Malviya Nagar, New Delhi - 110017 (India) *Email: [email protected] Abstract: The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) is vulnerable to several natural disasters like earthquakes, floods and landslide due to its geo-environmental settings. Urbanization is exerting additional environmental stress which may increase the frequency of natural disasters. Besides poor legal enforcement of regulations and inadequate infrastructural services also increase the vulnerability of the socially and economically marginalized population in IHR. IHR is also expected to experience one of the worst effects of climate change in the future. Therefore, the need of the hour is to develop disaster resilient cities which can be achieved through multi-sectoral and multi- stakeholder approach along with policy level interventions. Integrated Research & Action for Development (IRADe) along with North East Space Application Centre (NESAC), Shillong and G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment & Sustainable Development (GBPNIHESD), Sikkim Unit is working under National Mission on Himalayan Studies (NMHS) programme of Government of India to develop disaster resilience in two IHR cities, viz. Shillong and Gangtok. Through rapid vulnerability assessment (RVA) framework IRADe has carried out the disaster vulnerability assessment of Shillong and Gangtok cities. The RVA framework is based on the parameters such as topography, history of disasters, climate scenarios and projections, status of infrastructures and governance. These parameters give local/regional diversification and help analyze exposure and vulnerability of the cities to disasters, Analysis of data reveals that both Shillong and Gangtok are prone to various hazards such as earthquake, landslides, flash floods and thunderstorms/lightning. Basic urban services in both the cities are highly stressed because of outdated infrastructure, revenue loss and lack of integrated sewerage and drainage systems, thus making the cities more vulnerable to disasters. Further, predicted climatic changes may exacerbate the impacts of natural hazards like landslides to which the two cities are already vulnerable. The paper provides certain recommendations for increasing the disaster resilience of IHR cities, which should be followed to reduce the vulnerability of the cities.
Keywords:
Indian Himalayan Region, Natural Disasters, Urbanization, Climate Vulnerability, Disaster Resilience, Adaptation
Page 1 of 17 I. INTRODUCTION
India is geographically located in a highly disaster The DM Act 2005 uses the following prone region and has been continuously impacted definition for disaster: "Disaster" means a by natural disasters like earthquakes, floods, catastrophe, mishap, calamity or grave cyclones, landslides, tsunami etc. In the years occurrence in any area, arising from between 1996 and 2001, India lost 2% of national natural or manmade causes, or by accident GDP to natural disasters and nearly 12% of or negligence which results in substantial government revenue was spent on relief, loss of life or human suffering or damage rehabilitation and reconstruction (India Disaster to, and destruction of, property, or damage Management Profile, 2013). Floods, earthquakes, to, or degradation of, environment, and is cyclones and hailstorms are the most frequently of such a nature or magnitude as to be occurring hazards in India where 27 out of 35 states beyond the coping capacity of the and union territories are prone to these types of community of the affected area. hazards (MoHA, 2011). Over the past thirty years, Source: National Disaster Management Plan, earthquakes have accounted for 34.8% of total NDMA GoI, 2016 deaths by natural disasters (MoHA, 2011). During 1980-2010, India has experienced nearly 431 natural disasters killing around 1.4 lakh people and affecting around 15 crore people, with an economic loss of USD 48.06 billion (MoHA, 2011). Indian Northeast (NE) region, particularly, is more vulnerable to natural and man-made disasters like landslides, torrential rainfall, flash floods, earthquakes, forest fires etc. because of its location in the eastern Himalayan periphery, fragile geo-environmental settings and economic underdevelopment. A high degree of vulnerability to these disasters will increasingly make the region environmentally insecure in the future unless pragmatic interventions are made immediately. This project, funded by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), Government of India (GoI), under its flagship programme National Mission on Himalayan Studies (NMHS) is carrying out studies of two NE cities (Shillong and Gangtok) of IHR with a view to develop their disaster resilience plans by highlighting their exposure to potential hazards using advanced technologies like satellite remote sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). This paper presents the results of rapid disaster vulnerability assessment of the two cities, carried out as a part of the project, by highlighting cities’ exposure to potential hazards.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
To understand and analyze the rapid vulnerability and climate resilient measures in India’s urban centers, a rapid vulnerability framework (RVA) was designed by IRADe in 2008-2012 based on four themes “Hazards-Infrastructure-Governance-Socio-Economic characteristics (HIGS)” which are determined on the basis of the city's characteristics like location, economic and geographical parameters to further determine the exposure to hazards. City level disaster risks can be analyzed using HIGS framework that integrates information on physical and meteorological Hazards,
Page 2 of 17 analysis of Infrastructure and urban services, Governance variables, and finally Socioeconomic and demographic indicators. This RVA framework provides a customizable approach for cities to analyze their own vulnerabilities as a basis for understanding potential areas of corrective action as well as enables comparison across cities. It further identifies impacts, which are of concern across multiple cities, and are city-specific. Such a nuanced analysis is needed to better inform national, state and local policy making on urban development and management. What is particularly valuable is that the rapid assessment methodology can spur autonomous action by enabling cities to assess their vulnerabilities using the HIGS framework and prioritize steps to be taken in response. This RVA (HIGS) framework was first applied by IRADe on twenty Indian Cities for assessing their vulnerability to the natural hazards, later in 2012-14 using HIGS framework IRADe again conducted a study on disaster resilience across 10 cities in India viz. Pune, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Vishakhapatnam, Hyderabad, Bhubaneswar, Shillong, Guwahati, Dehradun and Srinagar (Parikh et al, 2015). It was found that most of these cities including Shillong are prone to various hazards like earthquakes, flash floods, water logging, cyclones, cold waves, landslides etc.
Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority (SSDMA) developed a disaster management plan for the state which comprise of four volumes with each volume describing specifically various aspects of disaster management in the state (SSDMA, 2015). SSDMA also mapped the vulnerability of the people to landslides in the state (SSDMA, 2007). Similarly, Meghalaya State Disaster Management Authority (MSDMA) prepared disaster management plan for Meghalaya in 2006 (MSDMA, 2006). The plan assessed the existing vulnerability of the people in the state to various disasters as well as the capabilities of various state-level organizations in promoting and strengthening disaster management activities. The district administration of East Khasi Hills district then came up with District Disaster Management Plan in 2015 which also included HRVA (Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Assessment) of Shillong city.
III. Study Area
Figure 1: Location of Shillong and Gangtok in India. (Source: Prepared by IRADe)
Page 3 of 17 Shillong City
Shillong, the capital city of Meghalaya, is landlocked and situated at an altitude of 4,908 ft above mean sea level. It lies in the center of the Shillong Plateau surrounded by hills. The humid sub- tropical climate of Shillong is characterized by moderately warm wet summers and cool dry winters. The average maximum and minimum temperature is around 20° C and 12° C respectively. The city experiences a prolonged rainy season with intermittent rain throughout the year. Two-thirds of the rainfall occurs in the months from June to September, from the South West monsoons with relative humidity being highest during rainy season (above 80%). Shillong Urban Agglomeration, covers an area of 70.4 square kilometer. It includes Shillong Municipality, the Cantonment, and the townships of Mawlai, Nongthymmai Madanrting Pynthorumkhrah, Nongmynsong (Fig 1) (Tariang, 2011).
Shillong is also the most urbanized and largest city in the hill state of Meghalaya. The population of the city is 143,229 (Census, 2011). The population growth rate over the last decade has been 7.79% (2001 Population – 132,867). The city has witnessed unprecedented population growth in the recent years largely due to a high fertility rate coupled with heightened migration from neighboring states of India, as well as from across the border. Gangtok City
Gangtok the capital and the largest town in the Indian state of Sikkim and headquarters of the East Sikkim district, is located in the eastern Himalayan range, at an elevation of 5,410 ft above mean sea level and located at 27°20′N & 88°37′E (Fig 1). The city is flanked on east and west by two streams, namely Roro Chu and Ranikhola, respectively. These two rivers divide the natural drainage into two parts, the eastern and western parts. Both the streams meet the Ranipool and flow south as the main Ranikhola before it joins the Teesta at Singtam. The climate in the city is monsoon-influenced subtropical highland climate or the Himalayan type of climate. The average maximum during summers is around 22oC, with maximum temperatures rarely crossing 25°C and minimum temperatures during the winters being recorded at 3oC. Rainfall starts from pre- monsoon in May, and peaks during the monsoon, with July recording the highest monthly average of 649.6 mm. The region receives an annual rainfall of 3494 mm over 164 rainy days.
The Gangtok municipal area was notified in the year 2010, comprising 17 municipal wards and has an area of around 19.2 sq km. The total population of the city is 100,286 (Census 2011), hence the population density of the city is 5223 persons per sq. km. IV. MATERIALS USED AND METHODOLOGY The authors have tried to adopt a holistic framework HIGS, described by Parikh et al (2015) by incorporating parameters that give local/regional diversification, flexibility and interdependency (flow of information with clarity) to be customized for the use in other regions/cities. The HIGS (RVA) framework is further made more dynamic by adding more climatic parameters
Page 4 of 17 (temperature, precipitation, climatic scenarios and projections etc.) and evaluating their status. Interconnection of different variables is important to bring forth the priorities of disaster resilience towards which city must act fast and integrate them in their developmental activities. Methodology in this study revolves around collecting updated information from cities and analyzing them with respect to a) Exposure and vulnerability, b) Evaluation of existing critical infrastructure and basic urban services, c) Resilience (response and recovery system and evaluation of city management and governance. Data for both cities was collected through primary and secondary sources, including stakeholder consultations with ULBs (Urban Local Bodies) and related agencies. Also, historic weather data, hazard timelines and exposure to various hazards were compiled and collated with abnormal natural events to evaluate vulnerable profile of the region. Various parameters analyzed to assess each of the four aspects (Hazard, Infrastructure, Governance and Socio-Economic Conditions) of the framework are:
Hazard and extreme evets: Exposure to geophysical variables; past history of hazards, their frequency of occurrence and magnitude of impact. Climate variables observed and projected.
Infrastructure Status: Water supply, waste management, storm water drainage system status, power and transport infrastructure, status of the infrastructure, maintenance, coverage and access to the basic infrastructure.
Governance: the institutional framework of the city management and urban administration and public health, response, recovery system and evaluation of city management in the context of disaster proneness, financial status/independence of the city ULB, and efficiency in delivering the basic services. Smart initiatives like: E-Governance, ICT (Information and Communication Technology)
Socio-Economic: Population and urbanization trends, urban population density and slum population.
This framework was used to understand the current scenario of selected cities and urban settlements that features many of the impacts of natural disasters, such as earthquakes, landslides, flash floods, variation in temperatures and precipitation, etc.
Page 5 of 17
Figure 2: HIGS Framework V. RESULTS & DISCUSSIONS a. Disaster Vulnerability of Shillong City
Shillong city is prone to various hazards because of its geo-ecological fragility, the eastern Himalayan landscape, its trans-boundary river basins and its inherent socio-economic instabilities. The city is vulnerable to both natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, heavy rainfall, floods etc. as well as man -made disasters such as road accidents, fires, water scarcity due to rapid growth of urbanization and improper and uncontrolled construction. Table 1 shows the history of disasters in Shillong city (Parikh et al., 2015) and Table 2 provides a timeline of different natural disasters affecting the city. Table 1: History of Disasters in Shillong City (Source: Parikh et al., 2015) Impact on Type of Hazards Year of Occurrence Area Population Life Livelihood Livestock 1897,1897, 1923. 1930, 1932, 1945, Earthquake Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 1950, 1951 Extreme winds/ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, Thunderstorms/ 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, Yes Yes - Yes yes cyclones 2013 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, Flash Flood 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, Yes Yes Yes Yes yes 2013
Page 6 of 17 Impact on Type of Hazards Year of Occurrence Area Population Life Livelihood Livestock 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, Landslide, etc. 2005,2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, Yes Yes Yes Yes yes 2012, 2013 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, Incessant 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, Yes Yes Yes Yes yes Rainfall 2013 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, Fire 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, - Yes Yes Yes Yes 2012, 2013
Table 2: Hazard Timeline of Shillong City
Hazards Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Flash Floods
Extreme winds
Landslide
Earthquakes
Thunderstorm/Lightning/Hailstorms
In Shillong, the slopes are steep, and being a part of young mountains, are highly vulnerable to landslides. In addition, increased rainfall makes the land more unstable and causes massive flow of debris in every monsoon. Deforestation in the steep slopes due to human activities results in the removal of vegetation cover and exposes rocks, resulting in the weathering processes. Together these processes trigger landslides (Fig 3). This causes severe disturbance to road transportation and communications, which have major bearing on availability of essential commodities, their prices and on national security. The monsoon season in Shillong Figure 3: Landslide along Guwahati- Shillong road near Ryndang Briew, starts in June and ends around August, which is accompanied Shillong by heavy rains and strong winds. Hailstorms, thunderstorms and squalls commonly occur in the city and its citizens normally face problems during the rainy season. Wind and cyclone hazard map of India puts Shillong city under very high damage zone, with wind speed ranging from 44 – 47 m/s. Low pressures areas are formed in the Bay Bengal each year, leading to the development of thunderstorms during the months of April-May and October-November (Table 2). These high winds are usually accompanied by thunderstorm and hailstorms leading to uprooting of trees and falling of electric poles, and thereby damaging
Page 7 of 17 telephone cables, street lights and other infrastructures. Many a times big trees falling on human habitations has also caused the loss of lives. While rains are a relief to the water-starved city, it is also a disadvantage as weeks of thunder showers not only worsen the already dilapidated pavements but makes walking through them almost impossible. Moreover, the number of flooded streets has been rising during the monsoon season in the city. In particular, low-lying areas of the city like Polo and Pynthorbah are more prone to flooding in monsoon. Improper and uncontrolled construction is considered the prime reason for the menace and preventive measures should be initiated sooner (The Shillong Times, May 28th, 2012). Shillong City is highly vulnerable to earthquakes as it falls under the high risk seismic zone V, and is at a risk of experiencing earthquakes at any time of the year (Table 2). Though the earthquake risk is very high, most of the houses in Shillong have not incorporated building bye-laws, and do not have adequate structural strength to withstand even a moderate earthquake. The most vulnerable structures are the stone or brick masonry houses, which have mushroomed in the city in last several years replacing traditional ‘Assam type’ of houses. Table 3 provides a summary of vulnerability assessment of Shillong city based on HIGS framework.
Table 3: Vulnerability profile of Shillong city Description SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERICTICS Population 2001 Population – 132,867, 2011 Population – 143,229. Growth Rate – 7.79% The population of Shillong forms 68% of the total urban population of the state (CDP). Density ~ 13,825 per sq km in 2011 Slum Population 12 slum pockets, covering 10% of the city population HAZARD AND EXTREME EVENTS Temperature Average maximum temperature- 20° C & Average minimum temperature-12° C observed
Temperature Temperature increase is expected to be 1.6-1.7°C by 2050 (Meghalaya State Action Plan Projections on Climate Change, 2015) Rainfall The average annual rainfall of Shillong is 2,162 mm observed trend Hailstorm, Thunderstorm and Squall are the common form of rainfall in Shillong. Rainfall East Khasi hills district is expected to experience an increase of 10-15% in precipitation projections by 2050. (Meghalaya State Action Plan on Climate Change, 2015)
Page 8 of 17 Extreme events : Incidences of water logging in the city is 25%, with the numbers increasing during Urban Floods/ monsoons Flash Floods August 2014, Incessant rain over 24 hrs caused flash flood in the city 22 people killed in 2012, triggered a series of landslides and washed away nearly 30km of highway in north Sikkim amid torrential rain Landslides In 2014, torrential rain triggered landslide killed almost 8 people in Mawbah area of Shillong ( Times of India, Shillong, 2014) In 2015, 12 people were killed in the landslides in Meghalaya (NDTV India, 2015) Water Scarcity With the rapid growth of urbanization, citizens face the shortage of water in the city. Water scarcity in Shillong is related with problem of water quality as well as water quantity. Over the years a declining trend in the rainfall has also been discernible Earthquakes City falls under the high risk seismic Zone V Earthquake measuring 5.2 on the Richter scale rocked the entire northeast India, including Shillong and adjoining Bangladesh on March, 2002 ( Meghalaya Times, 2016) another earthquake was recorded in April, 2016 INFRASTRUCTURE STATUS ( AMRUT, NIUA, 2016-17) Water Supply The main source of water supply for Greater Shillong is River Umium. In 2016-17, almost 77% of the house-holds (HHs) have water supply connection The per capita water supply is low at 78 lpcd The water connections are not metered and only 12% of the water services cost is recovered. Sewerage Almost 94% of the HHs in the city have individual & community toilet coverage 0.57% HHs have no facilities, hence resort to open defecation Provision of sanitary toilet facilities for this 5.82% households is being taken up under the "Swachh Bharat" mission No sewage treatment plant, all the house sullage (kitchen and bath room waste water) drains either into the River Umshyrpi in the south or in the Um Khrah in the north. Solid Waste 159 MT of municipal solid waste is produced per day, 0.4 kg of waste per capita per Management day. The major solid waste generation sources are households (56%), markets (23%), hotels & restaurants (7%), construction waste (2%), and street sweeping (7%) (Mipun et al 2015) In the SMB area 46% of the waste generated is collected while outside the SMB area the figure is only 32% and for the entire GSPA (Greater Shillong Planning Area) the percentage of garbage collected works out to about 41%.
Page 9 of 17 Presently garbage collected is disposed into the gorges of the trenching ground situated at MAWLAI on Shillong Guwahati Road ( Shillong Municipal Board). Storm Water The drains run for 148.91 km across city and drains into the Umkhrah and Umshyrpi Drainage river At present (2016-17) Storm water drainage network coverage is less than 75% of the city, incidence of sewerage mixing in drains is almost 100% Transportation Total road length of Shillong is 356 km with a road density of 2.05 km/sq km (Shillong City Development Plan). NMT (Non Motorised Transportation) has not being stressed upon in the city Comprehensive Mobility Plan (CMP) due to undulating topography & operational constrains Power The average electricity consumption in residential area is 300 units /house/day and in commercial area is 450 units /shop/day The agencies responsible for the supply, management and distribution of the electricity in the city are: (1) North Eastern Regional Electricity Board, Shillong; (2) Meghalaya State Electricity Board, Shillong and (3) NEEPCO (North Eastern Electric Power Corporation Limited) Housing Out of total households in Shillong city, about 46 % of the houses are made of Concrete, followed by, Wood and Burnt Bricks. Out of the 65 Slums in Shillong UA except two slums, rest of them are in private land (Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation, GOI, 2015). There is a total 3567 housing units requirements for slums and urban poor in the city (Rajiv Awas Yojana 2015, Census of India, 2011) . GOVERNANCE Administrative Shillong Municipal board is responsible for service delivery, this includes water supply, Units assigned solid address waste management etc. East Khasi hills District Commissioner office is quite active in the area of Disaster Risk to address Reduction and disaster management planning climate change Meghalaya Basin Development Authority, Meghalaya Disaster Management Authority and state government are important stakeholders, Willingness of The Forest and Environment Department, Government of Meghalaya along with the the city to Meghalaya Basin Development Authority with Technical Support from GIZ organized address Climate the ‘Expert Consultation Prioritizing Actions under Meghalaya’s State Action Plan on Change Climate Change (SAPCC)’ in May, 2013 and Meghalaya State Action Plan on Climate Change was developed in 2015.
Page 10 of 17 Local government including Shillong Municipal Board (SMB) and district unit is implementing Urban Risk Reduction (URR) and DRR programme with support from UNDP. This also involves integration of risk reduction into urban development programme while assessing risk and vulnerabilities and strengthening Building codes, Bye laws and development control regulations (DCR). ULB and UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) are also working on developing ward-level risk –assessment, including understanding of the existing early warning systems, identifying formal & informal mitigation actions and recommendations. b. Disaster Vulnerability of Gangtok City
Sikkim is among the India’s most vulnerable regions to both natural and human-made disasters since it is situated in the very high zone with regards to earthquake and high zone with regards to landslides (Multi –hazard risk vulnerability assessment, Gangtok, East Sikkim, 2012). Most of Sikkim, including Gangtok, is underlain by Precambrian rock which contains foliated phyllites and schists; slopes are therefore prone to frequent landslides. Surface runoff of water by natural streams (locally called jhora) and man-made drains, has contributed to the risk of landslides. The town falls under seismic zone-IV. Table 4 highlights the hazard exposure of Gangtok at various times of the year.
Table 4: Timeline of various hazards affecting Gangtok Index Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Landslides Flash Flood Hailstorm/thundering Forest Fire Earthquake
High intensity torrential rains may bring flash floods and trigger more landslide incidents, which may block Gangtok’s land connection with rest of the country. In 2012, 22 people were reportedly killed due to flash flood, which also washed away nearly 30 km highway in north Sikkim (Kundu, 2012). Flash floods might also trigger a series of landslide incidences, which in turn compound the vulnerability of the people. During 1957 – 2005, the East Sikkim district had experienced over 153 landslide incidences. Nearly 7.51% area of the Gangtok city falls in very high-risk zone with respect to landslides potentially affecting 1.84% of the total settlements while 24.64% of the area falls under medium high risk zone with 18.18% of the total settlements being affected (SSDMA, 2012).
Page 11 of 17 In addition to flash floods and landslides, Gangtok is also prone to earthquakes. The entire state falls in highly seismic zone IV/V of the earthquake zonation map of India. 29% of city’s area falls in very high risk zone affecting 18.84% of the total settlement, 13.45% of the area falling in medium high risk zone affecting 14.80% of the total settlement, and 31.48% of the area categorised to be in medium risk zone with 42.14% of the total settlement being affected (SSDMA, 2012). Most of the loss of lives in past earthquakes have occurred due to the collapse of buildings, constructed with stones, bricks, adobes and wood, which were not particularly engineered to be earthquake resistant. Table 5 provides a summary of vulnerability assessment of Gangtok city based on HIGS framework.
Table 5: Vulnerability profile of Gangtok city Description SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS Population 100,286 (as per 2011 Census) Density 5,223 persons per sq.km Slum Population 20,504 ( 6,085 HHs) Notified & Non-notified slums ( (SFCPoA, Gangtok, 2013) HAZARD AND EXTREME EVENTS Temperature observed and Due to its elevation and sheltered environment, Gangtok enjoys a mild, temperate projection climate all year round Maximum & Minimum Temperature (2016) – 27oC & 19oC respectively Temperature Projections By 2030s, the average annual temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 to 2.1°C with re•spect to 1970s (State Action Plan on Climate Change for Sikkim, 2011). Rainfall observed trend and Rainfall starts to rise from pre-monsoon in May, and peaks during the monsoon, with projections July recording the highest monthly average of 649.6 mm (25.6 in) Snowfall recorded in year 1990, 2004, 2005, & 2011 Rainfall Projections Sikkim is expected to experience a decrease in precipitation of about 3% in 2030 with respect to 1970 (INCCA, 2010; State Action Plan on Climate Change for Sikkim, 2011). Extreme events : Landslides In 2016 landslide hit Sikkim-Bengal border, resulting in the death of an unspecified number of people In 2015, Landslides near Rambhi, in the outskirts of Siliguri on the way to the hills have disrupted the road traffic between Gangtok and the North Bengal hub. Earthquakes Sikkim placed in Zone IV/V of the earthquake Earthquake affected area are in and around below Arithang, below Paljor stadium and area around Amdo golai, Burtuk etc
Page 12 of 17 6.9-magnitude earthquake hit Sikkim September 2011 that killed 70 people and destroying the villages. Its epicentre was located at Chungthang. Urban Floods/ Flash Floods Flash flood killed 22 people in 2012, triggered a series of landslides and washed away nearly 30km of highway in north Sikkim amid torrential rain Friday evening. INFRASTRUCTURE STATUS ( AMRUT, NIUA, 2016-17), ( City Development Plan Gangtok, 2011) Water Supply At present the per capita water supply in the city is 60-70 lpcd 75% of the households (HHs) have water supply connections and total length of water supply distribution pipe line laid in the City is 203.64 Km River Rateychu is the existing source of water and there is one WTP at Selep (capacity 41 MLD) Sewerage The city has 42% coverage of sewerage network services, with 96% coverage of individual & community toilets The sewer system and storm water drainage systems are separate in Gangtok, with no treatment facility for the drains which are presently being discharged into the natural streams Solid Waste Management City generates about 50MT of solid waste daily Only about 40% of MSW is collected in the Gangtok area. A significant amount of waste is dumped into the nearest water course (jhora), streets and valley. There was also no provision for collection & disposal of hazardous toxic wastes generated from industries. Declared the best among the top 10 cleanest city in India, 2015. Gangtok Municipal Corporation (GMC) along with a local NGO named “24hours Inspired” has developed a programme called “Engage 14 programme” to engage school children in the process of understanding SWM. The Corporation has already initiated works to improve the situation at Martam landfill site. Storm Water Drainage There is a gap of 75.99% in the coverage of storm water drainage network (24%). Road side drains cover 37740m, out of which 28.09% are still earthen or below the required capacity. 25-30 % incidence rate of sewerage mixing in the drains. Incidence of water logging prevalent status is 4.72%. Transportation The share of personal vehicles and taxis combined is 98% of Gangtok's total vehicles, a high percentage when compared to other Indian cities. The 1 km (0.6 mi) long cable car with three stops connects lower Gangtok suburbs with Sikkim Legislative assembly in central Gangtok and the upper suburbs.
Page 13 of 17 Power Electricity is supplied by the power department of the Government of Sikkim. Gangtok has a nearly uninterrupted electricity supply due to Sikkim's numerous hydroelectric power stations. Housing Urban Development and Housing Department, is the nodal agency for providing individual urban housing in the state. GOVERNANCE Administrative Units assigned Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority to address climate change Gangtok Municipal Corporation: Municipal Disaster Management Committee, Ward Disaster Management Committee etc. Willingness of the city to City Disaster Management Plan, Multi hazard Vulnerability Assessment, SSDMA, address Climate Change Comprehensive mobility Plan, CDP Gangtok
VI. CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS This paper reports rapid disaster vulnerability assessment of Shillong and Gangtok, carried out on the basis of HIGS framework. It was found that both the cities are expected to see an increase in temperature by 1.6-2.1ºC in the coming decades. Regarding precipitation, Shillong is expected to have increased precipitation by 10-50% in 2050, whereas Gangtok is expected to see a decline in precipitation by 15-20% in the same period with potential increase in its intensity. These predicted climatic changes may exacerbate the impacts of natural disasters like flash floods and landslides that the two cities are prone to. Additionally, both the Himalayan cities also face the threat of earthquakes, thunderstorms/ lightning, forest fires and water scarcity. Some of the recommendations for increasing the disaster resilience of IHR cities are: the enforcement and monitoring of the existing provisions for building earthquake resistant infrastructure and disaster resilient systems need to be strengthened in both the cities. It should be made mandatory for buildings to obtain a certificate of structural safety before approval by a local body. The Emergency Operation Center should be strong and active and ensure that the physical space is setup in a safe zone. Early Warning systems for floods should be set up to coordinate and facilitate pre and post disaster operations. Records related to history of hazards, infrastructure details of health centers should be maintained and updated on regular basis. Further, disaster resilience action plans should be developed and plans should be made dynamic with lessons from each city hazard/disaster to be integrated for better land use planning, governance and response mechanisms.
In terms of the city services and basic infrastructure facilities, the study indicates that both cities need a developed and functioning storm water drainage network across the cities. In addition, there should be a separate water treatment plant to filter the sewage before releasing it into the rivers.
On the governance front, functioning of the agencies needs to be streamlined and made accountable to improve service delivery. Single central offices in both the cities are needed for
Page 14 of 17 consolidated Database Management System (DBMS for effective and efficient planning. Physical risks and vulnerabilities posed by disasters in the Himalayan cities are often accompanied by lack of necessary resources – financial, human and institutional – as well as access to relevant scientific information to cope with them. Such constraints call for an urgent need to enhance the knowledge base and adaptive capacity of cities by the integrating disaster risk reduction (DRR) into urban planning. This project further envisages developing a disaster resilience action plan which includes cadastral maps showing hazard/disaster wise vulnerable zones of Shillong and Gangtok urban agglomerations at the scale of 1:4000. Digitization and Mapping of critical infrastructure on GIS would also be done which will be used as a tool by local authorities to plan for disaster resilient development of the cities.
VII. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), Government of India for funding the project under National Mission on Himalayan Studies (NMHS) programme.
Page 15 of 17 Author Details: All authors are affiliated with IRADe Rohit Magotra: Deputy Director Jyoti Parikh: Executive Director Ajit Tyagi: Senior Advisor Moumita Shaw: Senior Research Associate Mohit Kumar: Senior Research Associate Asha Kaushik: Senior Research Associate Mohit Kumar Gupta: Senior Project Associate Ananya Mukherjee: Research Associate
REFERENCES 1. MoHA (2011) Disaster management in India, Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt. of India, 255p. 2. India: Disaster Profile and Management, India Disaster Knowledge Network (IDKN) (2013) http://www.simplydecoded.com/2013/10/21/india-disaster-profile-and-management/. Accessed on 09/06/2017. 3. Parikh J., Magotra R., Singh M.K., Sandal G., Kaushik A. and Dhingra M. (2015) Sustainable and Disaster Resilient Urban Development, Report Series on 10 Cities, IRADe, New Delhi. 4. SSDMA (2015) State Disaster Management Plan, Vol 1: DRR and Mitigation Plan http://ssdma.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=10136. Accessed on 12/9/18. 5. SSDMA (2015) State Disaster Management Plan, Vol 2: State Disaster Management Plan. http://ssdma.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=10137. Accessed on 12/9/18. 6. SSDMA (2015) State Disaster Management Plan, Vol 3: Checklists, Formats and Resource Database http://ssdma.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=10138. Accessed on 12/9/18. 7. SSDMA (2015) State Disaster Management Plan, Vol 4: Specific Action Plan for Line Departments and other Non-Govt. Stakeholders http://ssdma.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=10139. Accessed on 12/9/18. 8. SSDMA (2007) Human Vulnerability Due to Natural Disaster. http://www.ssdma.nic.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=68. Accessed on 12/9/18 9. MSDMA (2006) State Report on GOI-UNDP URR Project in Meghalaya, Disaster Risk Reduction Programme. http://megrevenuedm.gov.in/msdma/status_report.pdf. Accessed on 12/09/18. 10. MSDMA (2016) Meghalaya State Disaster Management Plan,Government of Meghalaya. 11. District Disaster Management Authority, Shillong. District Disaster Management Plan, East Khasi Hills District, Shillong. 12. Tariang, D. (2011) Assessment of the water quality of Umkhrah river Physico chemical and biological investigation. PhD Thesis, North Eastern Hill University, Shillong. 13. Census of India (2011), District Census Handbook East Khasi Hills, Directorate of Census Operations, Meghalaya. 14. Ravindranath, N. H. et al. (2011) Climate change vulnerability profiles for North East India. Current Science 101 (3)-384-394 15. Anonymous (2015) Meghalaya State Climate Change Action Plan, CCAP –Govt. of Meghalaya http://www.moef.nic.in/sites/default/files/sapcc/Meghalaya.pdf. Accessed on 12/09/18.
Page 16 of 17 16. SSDMA (2012) Multi –hazard risk vulnerability assessment, Gangtok, East Sikkim. http://www.ssdma.nic.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=10201. Accessed on 12/09/18. 17. Kundu, A. (2012) Flash flood kills 22 in Sikkim. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Flash-flood- kills-22-in-Sikkim/articleshow/16509127.cms. Page accessed on 09/06/2017.
Page 17 of 17 Developing Disaster Resilience Action Plan through GIS & Prioritising Actions for Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Shillong & Gangtok
Project Proponent: Supported by: Consortium Partners: BACKGROUND PROJECT APPROACH Himalayan cities are particularly vulnerable to disasters and extreme events like earthquakes, landslides, flash floods, thunderstorms and cold waves. The magnitude of hazards and extreme events in the region may vary depending on the risk exposure of the city. Physical risks and vulnerabilities in the Himalayan cities are often accompanied by difficult terrain, lack of necessary resources – financial, human and institutional – as well as lack of access to relevant scientific information on the coping mechanism. This necessitates a thrust on improving the knowledge base and adaptive capacity of the cities by integrating disaster risk reduction measures in the urban planning. In addition, rapid urbanization and climate change could exacerbate environmental stress in the region. Thus, there is a need to collect and review evidence to assess the vulnerability and likely impact of disasters in the region. IRADe with support from Ministry of Environment, Forests & Climate Change (MoEFCC) under National Mission on Himalayan Studies (NMHS) aims to develop Disaster Resilience Action Plans for Shillong and Gangtok cities. EXPECTED OUTPUTS • Land use/land cover maps for Shillong & Gangtok cities at AIM cadastral scale 1:4000. To provide decision-supporting tools for disaster risk reduction • Hazard wise vulnerable zone maps of the cities. in the urban areas of the North East Region. It includes • Vulnerability assessment of Shillong & Gangtok cities to development of cadastral maps for micro zonation of hazard natural disasters. and action plan for disaster resilience for Shillong & Gangtok. • Critical infrastructure risk mapping for the cities. • Disaster resilience plans for the Shillong & Gangtok. OBJECTIVES • Capacity building of city, district and state authorities on • Develop cadastral maps at the scale of 1:4000 and map disaster resilience. hazard/ risk wise vulnerable zones of Shillong and Gangtok urban agglomerations. OUTCOMES Conduct ground survey to Identify and map critical • The outcomes of the project will help in developing policies for infrastructure – telecommunication installations, emergency reducing the risk of losses in the events of natural disasters in the two operation centers, shelter homes, slums, hospitals & schools, cities. • Develop disaster resilience action plan for the identified cities and prioritize actions for disaster risk reduction through multi- • Generate awareness amongst stakeholders such as stakeholder consultations involving citizens, government, policy makers, state government, local governing bodies, public and private sector. government departments,NGOs, communities/citizens about • Spread awareness and raise capacity of the citizens as well as the disaster risk reduction to reduce losses. city, district and state authorities. • Address lack of coordination and bring all stakeholders to one platform, leveraging IRADe’s experience, expertise and strong PARTNERS local network. • Craft and prioritize city-specific actions for disaster risk The research is led by Integrated Research and Action for reduction. Development (IRADe), a leading research institute and think The project will lead to capacity building of the local mountain tank with consortium members including North-Eastern Space • communities in disaster risk reduction by imparting them Applications Centre (NESAC), Meghalaya and Institute G.B. Pant the necessary knowledge and information through social National Institute of Himalayan Environment & Sustainable networking and public participation in workshops. Development, ( GBPNIHESD ), Almora.
For more details please check the web-link: irade.org/cce-drap.htm
Key Contacts Mr. Rohit Magotra Dr. Diganta Barman Dr. Mithilesh Singh Integrated Research & Action North-Eastern Space GB Pant Institute of Himalayan for Development Applications Centre Environment & Development C-80, Shivalik, Department of Space, GBPNIHESD Sikkim Unit, Malviya Nagar Government of India, Pangthang, P.O. Penlog (East), New Delhi - 110017 Umiam - 793103 (Meghalaya) Sikkim - 737101 (Sikkim) Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Web: www.irade.org Web: www.nesac.gov.in Web: www.gbpihed.nic.in
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Table of Contents BACKGROUND ...... 3 AIM ...... 3 OBJECTIVES ...... 3 PARTNERS ...... 3 PROJECT APPROACH ...... 3 EXPECTED OUTPUTS ...... 4 OUTCOMES ...... 4 STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP ...... 4 WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS ...... 4 INAUGRAL SESSION ...... 4 SESSION I - DEVELOPING DISASTER RESILIENCE IN GANGTOK: ISSUES AND SOLUTIONS ...... 5 SESSION II - PROJECT APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY ...... 6 SESSION III- ENGAGING STAKEHOLDERS FOR DEVELOPING DISASTER RESILIENCE ACTION PLANS ...... 6 ANNEXURE ...... 8 ANNEXURE A: AGENDA OF THE WORKSHOP ...... 8 ANNEXURE B: LIST OF PARTICIPANTS ...... 10 ANNEXURE C: PHOTOGRAPHS FROM THE WORKSHOP ...... 12
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BACKGROUND Himalayan cities are particularly vulnerable to disasters and extreme events like earthquakes, landslides, flash floods, thunderstorms and cold waves. The magnitude of hazards and extreme events in the region may vary depending on the risk exposure of the city.
Physical risks and vulnerabilities in the Himalayan cities are often accompanied by difficult terrain, lack of necessary resources – financial, human and institutional – as well as lack of access to relevant scientific information on the coping mechanism. This necessitates a thrust on improving the knowledge base and adaptive capacity of the cities by integrating disaster risk reduction measures in the urban planning.
In addition, rapid urbanization and climate change could exacerbate environmental stress in the region. Thus, there is a need to collect and review evidence to assess the vulnerability and likely impact of disasters in the region. IRADe with support from Ministry of Environment, Forests & Climate Change (MoEFCC) under National Mission on Himalayan Studies (NMHS) aims to develop Disaster Resilience Action Plans for Shillong and Gangtok cities.
AIM To provide decision-supporting tools for disaster risk reduction in the urban areas of the North East Region. It includes development of cadastral maps for micro zonation of hazard and action plan for disaster resilience for Shillong & Gangtok.
OBJECTIVES Develop cadastral maps at the scale of 1:4000 and map hazard/ risk wise vulnerable zones of Shillong and Gangtok urban agglomerations. Conduct ground survey to Identify and map critical infrastructure – telecommunication installations, emergency operation centers, shelter homes, slums, hospitals & schools, Develop disaster resilience action plan for the identified cities and prioritize actions for disaster risk reduction through multi-stakeholder consultations involving citizens, government, public and private sector. Spread awareness and raise capacity of the citizens as well as city, district and state authorities.
PARTNERS The research is led by Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), a leading research institute and think tank with consortium members including North-Eastern Space Applications Centre (NESAC), Meghalaya and Institute G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment & Sustainable Development, ( GBPNIHESD ), Almora.
PROJECT APPROACH
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EXPECTED OUTPUTS Land use/land cover maps for Shillong & Gangtok cities at cadastral scale 1:4000. Hazard wise vulnerable zone maps of the cities. Vulnerability assessment of Shillong & Gangtok cities to natural disasters. Critical infrastructure risk mapping for the cities. Disaster resilience plans for the Shillong & Gangtok. Capacity building of city, district and state authorities on disaster resilience.
OUTCOMES The outcomes of the project will help in developing policies for reducing the risk of losses in the events of natural disasters in the two cities.
Generate awareness amongst stakeholders such as policy makers, state government, local governing bodies, government departments, NGOs, communities/citizens about the disaster risk reduction to reduce losses. Address lack of coordination and bring all stakeholders to one platform, leveraging IRADe’s experience, expertise and strong local network. Craft and prioritize city-specific actions for disaster risk reduction. The project will lead to capacity building of the local mountain communities in disaster risk reduction by imparting them the necessary knowledge and information through social networking and public participation in workshops.
STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP A stakeholders’ workshop on “Developing disaster resilience action plan through GIS and prioritizing actions for natural disaster risk reduction in urban agglomerations of Shillong and Gangtok” was organized by the project proponent, Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) in collaboration with North-Eastern Space Applications Centre (NESAC), Meghalaya and G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment and Sustainable Development (GBPNIHESD), Sikkim Regional Center at Summit Denzong, Gangtok. The project is supported by the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change (MoEF&CC), Government of India under the NMHS Programme.
The primary objective of the workshop was to bring together the stakeholders at the Gangtok city level at the same platform to understand the aim of the project, which is to provide decision-supporting tools for disaster risk reduction in the urban areas of the North East Region of India, development of maps at the scale of 1:4000 scale for micro zonation of hazard and action plan for disaster resilience for Shillong and Gangtok.
The workshop was attended by participants from various departments of the urban local bodies and organizations viz., Land Revenue and Disaster Management Department, Govt. of Sikkim; Gangtok Municipal Corporation; Geological Survey of India, Sikkim Unit; Met Centre, Gangtok; Urban Development and Housing Department, Govt. of Sikkim; United Nations Development Programme; Save the Hills; Department of Geology, Sikkim University and Department of Geography, Sikkim University.
WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS INAUGRAL SESSION
The Workshop was inaugurated by Mr. Shakti Singh Choudhary, Mayor, Gangtok Municipal Corporation Mr. Alok Kumar Srivastava, IAS, Chief Secretary, Govt. of Sikkim, Prof. Ajit Tyagi, Former Director General of IMD & Senior Advisor, IRADe and Dr. Jyoti Parikh Executive Director, IRADe.
Prof. A. Tyagi, while addressing the stakeholders, he emphasized that the Himalayan cities are prone to number of hazards which eventually result in disasters effecting the large scale development of the cities, along with rapidly growing urban population. He indicated that there has been a paradigm shift in disaster resilience over the years in 3Rs (Rescue, Recover, Restoration) and IRADe being a Center of Excellence of MoEFCC, has a good track record in developing urban resilience plans for cities. He briefed about the project which will be an action oriented project, wherein stakeholders’ consultation and coordination in developing action plan, capacity building and implementation of the plan will be given due importance.
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Dr. J. Parikh, inaugurating the session stressed on the primary objective of the workshop, which was to bring together all the stakeholders at the same platform and developing common understanding about the project and aim and expected outcomes. She gave an insight to IRADe’s thematic areas and the various issues being addressed as a Center of Excellence of MoEFCC. She stressed on the work carried out by the organization in the field of urban and climate change programmes. The HIGS frame work developed by IRADe to assess the vulnerability profile of the cities was also briefed upon, along with its implementation in the work of 20 and 10 cities across India was showcased.
Mr. S. S. Choudhary, in his opening remarks briefed about the different hazards and disaster the city has faced over the years. He recalled the various earthquake events from history that shook the city and it adjacent areas, specially the 2011 earthquake which has been the pivotal point for the city and urban local bodies to take bold steps towards developing city resilience. He indicated that various govt. departments & urban local bodies like Building & housing, Electricity, road development departments have taken initiatives to reduce the loss of life and property due to hazards and disasters.
Chief Guest, Mr. A.K. Srivastava, pointed out that this was the first of its kind of stakeholders workshop being organized in Gangtok, and emphasized that proper planning and advanced tools like GIS and remote sensing along with increased social networking are required for proper disaster resilience. He pointed out that initially (15yrs back), disaster management was more relief oriented, which has now diverted to mitigation and adaption and along with the Kharif & Rabi seasons the hills comes across the season of Relief (after flooding). He indicated that climatological patters in the hills have changed over the times, with changing rainfall & precipitation pattern (decreased winter rainfall/ retreating monsoons), changing course of river, increase in vector borne diseases, increase in annual average temperature, poor quality and quantity of crops and fruits (apple, cardamom, etc.). He also mentioned some of the places in Gangtok which are prone to disasters like landslides along the hard rock area of Nathula, access road for north & south Sikkim, 9 mile area (sinking area), forest fires at 13-mile area etc. Emphasis was laid on immediate response system and long term planning for developing disaster resilient smart cities.
The Vote of Thanks was given by Mr. Mohit Kumar, Senior Research Associate, IRADe.
SESSION I - DEVELOPING DISASTER RESILIENCE IN GANGTOK: ISSUES AND SOLUTIONS
Chair: Mr. Rinzing Chewang, Special Secretary, Land Revenue and Disaster Management Department, Govt. of Sikkim
Co-Chair: Mr. G C Khanal, Additional Director, Land Revenue & Disaster management Department, Govt. of Sikkim
Introducing the discussants Mr. Rinzing Chewang welcomed the participants to the workshop and assured full support and collaboration towards developing disaster resilience action plan for the city.
Mr. G C Khanal, Additional Director pointed out that the main issue faced by Gangtok is the frequent occurrences of landslide, which are trigged by torrential rainfall, shallow slopes, increased deforestation etc. Earthquake and landslide have caused devastation and claimed numerous lives over the years (1997 Landslide, destroyed over 300 HHs, 1995 mudflow, 32 lives lost and 8 housed damages). The city being prone to disaster is essentially due to its geological and geotectonic structure and in recent changes in climatology (changing rainfall patterns, rise in average temperature, etc.)
To address such issues, he indicated that stress needs to be given in developing new building codes, seismic resistant construction is required. Even disaster like forest fires have caused damages to households, eg. Nam Nam village was as affected by forest fires as plastic was used as roof sheds. Disaster like flashfloods causes havoc due to illegal land encroachments and constructions. Evacuation plans and mock drills and early warning systems are being developed in this respect.
Discussants
Mr. Vijay V Mugal, Director, Geological Survey of India, Sikkim Unit, discussed about the work that is being carried out by his department in recognizing and demarcating areas which are prone to disasters like landslides and earthquakes. The department has recently developed National landslide susceptibility mapping, wherein the state of Sikkim is classified at the scale of 1: 50, 000 and 10,000, however micro-scaling is required and willingly agreed to provide all the geological solutions from the department. He claimed that a number of factors other than rainfall triggers the landslides/ mudslides in hilly regions. The structure and huge trees often exert pressure on the top soil causing down-hill movement of the soil. Areas like 8mile, 9mile and 10mile and transport corridors around Sikkim are majorly effected by landslides.
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Dr. G. N. Raha, Director, Met Centre, Gangtok, focused his discussion on vulnerability of Sikkim to various hydrological and geological hazards. He stated that Gangtok lies in a very fragile environment and is prone to hazards like flashflood, thunderstorms, hailstorms, ground frost and drought like situations in lean seasons.
SESSION II - PROJECT APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY
Chair: Dr. Anil Kumar Mishra, HOD, Dept. of Geology, Sikkim University
Co-Chair: Mr. Rohit Magotra, Assistant Director IRADe
Dr. Anil Kumar Mishra initiated the session on the discussion about the project approach and methodology
Mr. Rohit Magotra briefed the stakeholders and the participants about the Project, discussed about its aim, objectives and expected outcomes of the project. He discussed about the broad methodology being adopted in the project to attend the desired outputs, and as a part of the project released the project brochure and a background paper on Rapid Climate Vulnerability Assessment of Gangtok.
Discussants
Ms. Moumita Shaw, Senior Research Associate, IRADe, discussed in length regarding Climate Vulnerability Assessments for the city of Gangtok. The assessment was carried out in light of the HIGS framework developed by IRADe, depicting the hazard vulnerability of the city (hazard time-line, extreme events, future projects of temperature and precipitation pattern), Infrastructure status (water supply, solid waste management, drainage, transportation, housing etc.), Governance (governance structure for disaster management, willingness to act etc.) and Socio-economic status (population density, slum population etc.)
The assessment indicated that the city is prone to major disaster events claiming lives and property. Frequent flashfloods and landslides during monsoons causes disruption in communications and road blockages. Temperature projection revel that a rise in temperature by 1.8-2.1OC is expected by 2030, with decreased rainfall by 3%.
The basic infrastructure is not adequate and prone to disruption during hazard events. The per capita water supply is low at 60- 70 lpcd and river water being the only source of water for the city. Only 24% of the city has storm water drainage connection with incidence of sewerage and storm water mixing high at 25%-30%. However, Government agencies at various level are taking initiatives to address Disaster Management.
Dr. Diganta Barman, Scientist / Engineer, NESAC, presented on the Remote Sensing and GIS approaches for mapping at 1:4000 Scale. He focused on the various geospatial approaches for high resolution urban hazard mapping. He explained the methodology for creation of geospatial database (1:4000), hazard mapping, landslide hazard mapping and seismic hazard mapping. He also presented briefly on the hazard, risk and vulnerability assessment of Guwahati and presented the plans for Gangtok and Shillong
During this session it was discussed that empowering local communities in disaster management is vital. Disaster management communities at the ward level, gram panchayat level has already been initiated by state government of Sikkim. For the mapping of the disaster like landslides, community level surveys are required, wherein information related to issues such as run-off, relocation/ rehabilitation can be stressed on. It was also put forward that the Met. department of Gangtok have installed several weather stations , yet real time weather data is not readily available in public domain.
Dr. Devendra Kumar, Scientist ‘C’, GBPNIHESD, SRC presented on the topic – “Mapping socio-economic vulnerability to disasters in North-East”. He presented briefly on the vulnerability of India especially the Indian Himalayan Region to catastrophes. The impact of climate change on rainfall pattern, biodiversity and food security was also stressed upon. He also focused on the definition of resilient city, benefits of building resilient cities and a way forward for building resilient city.
SESSION III- ENGAGING STAKEHOLDERS FOR DEVELOPING DISASTER RESILIENCE ACTION PLANS
Chair: Prof. Ajit Tyagi, Senior Advisor, IRADe
Co-Chair: Mr. Shakti Singh Chaudhary, Mayor, Gangtok Municipal Corporation
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Discussants
The discussants of this session were Mr. Vijay V. Mugal (Director, Geological Survey of India, Sikkim Unit), Dr. G.N. Raha, (Director, Met Centre, Gangtok), Dr. Surajit Baruah (State Project Manager, UNDP), Wing Commander Praful Rao (Founder and CEO, Save the Hills) and Dr. Ishwarjit Singh (Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Sikkim University).
Mr. Mugal spoke briefly on base map preparation and road corridor mapping. He further focused on natural disaster especially on glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and suggested remedies for mitigating it. Dr. Raha gave details on real time monitoring of various climatic phenomena. Dr. Baruah provided suggestions for developing disaster resilience action plans. Mr. Rao pointed out the various aspect viz. landslides, changing rainfall pattern, vanishing springs to be taken into consideration for the preparation of the action plan. He also suggested the involvement of local community for enhancing the aforementioned work. Dr. Singh spoke briefly about the steps involved in developing disaster resilience viz. preparedness, ways to act during the time of disaster and how to cope after the disaster.
Dr Mithilesh Singh, Scientist-In charge, GBPNIHESD, Sikkim Regional Centre presented the Vote of Thanks to all the dignitaries.
Way Forward
Some of the points discussed are:
There lies a requirement for integration of all the departments and other completed or on-going projects, so that duplication of data can be avoided Community participation and stakeholder consultation is required at all stages For the landslide micro-zonation mapping, base maps with delineated area and contour maps are required, there is need for data availability, integrated approach of field investigation, geospatial analysis is pre-requisite. For adaption and mitigation measure, remedies for major hazard events needs to be worked out, along with monitoring (3 phase action plan), developing telecommunications and developing mock drills. Though there are issues with maintenance of AWS, real time data are required for developing early warning systems (132 AWS stations are planned to be installed in entire Sikkim) UNDP, India, Swiss Agency and DST climate change Dept. of Sikkim had previously worked to strengthen the Sikkim climate resilience and community resilience. UNDP has also initiated 16 model vulnerable village study with SSDMA. Convergence and upscaling of the existing information is required. The Urban Development & Housing Department, Gangtok also indicated that they are currently working on developing the city Master Plan and aims to develop land-use maps at the 1:4000. However, their focus is on planning and not on disaster. It was suggested that the departments and organizations involved in the project as stakeholder should work in close collaboration and share the information with each other, to avoid duplication of task.
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ANNEXURE ANNEXURE A: AGENDA OF THE WORKSHOP PROGRAMME SCHEDULE Stakeholders’ Workshop on Developing Disaster Resilience Action Plan through GIS and Prioritizing Actions for Natural Disaster Risk Reduction in Urban Agglomerations of Shillong and Gangtok Date: 6th February, 2018 Venue: Summit Denzong, Renaissance Hotel & Spa, Kazi Road, Near Power House, Gangtok
Time Sessions 10.00-10:30 am Registration 10. 30 - 11.35 am Inaugural Session Prof. Ajit Tyagi, Former Director General of IMD & Senior Advisor, 10.30 - 10. 45 am Welcome Address IRADe
10.45- 11.00 am Inaugural Address Dr. Jyoti Parikh, Executive Director, IRADe 11.00-11.15 am Opening Remarks Mr. Shakti Singh Choudhary, Mayor, Gangtok Municipal Corporation Special Address by The Mr. Alok Kumar Srivastava, IAS, Chief Secretary, Govt. of Sikkim 11.15 -11.30 am Chief Guest 11.30 – 11.35 am Vote of Thanks Mr Mohit Kumar, Senior Research Associate, IRADe 11.35 am – 12.00 Tea Break pm Session I: Developing Disaster Resilience in Gangtok: Issues and Solutions Mr. Rinzing Chewang, Special Secretary, Land Revenue and Disaster Chair 12.00 – 1.15 pm Management Department, Govt. of Sikkim Mr. G C Khanal, Additional Director, Land Revenue & Disaster Co-Chair management Department, Govt. of Sikkim Discussants 12.00 – 12.30 pm Mr. Vijay V Mugal, Director, Geological Survey of India, Sikkim Unit 12.30 – 1.00 pm Dr G N Raha, Director, Met Centre, Gangtok 1:00– 2:00 pm Lunch Session II : Presentation of Project Approach and Methodology 2.00 - 3.00 pm Chair Dr. Anil Kumar Mishra, HOD, Dept. of Geology, Sikkim University Co-Chair Mr. Rohit Magotra, Assistant Director IRADe Technical Presentations on:
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Time Sessions Mrs. Moumita Shaw, Senior Research 2.00 - 2.20 pm Rapid Vulnerability Assessment of Gangtok Associate, IRADe RS and GIS approaches for mapping at 1:4000 Dr. Diganta Barman, Scientist / Engineer, 2.20 - 20.40 pm scale, NESAC NESAC Mapping socio-economic vulnerability to Dr. Devendra Kumar, Scientist ‘C’, 2.40 - 3.00 pm disasters in North-East, GBPNIHESD GBPNIHESD
Session III : Engaging stakeholders for developing Disaster Resilience Action Plans
3.00 – 4.30 pm Chair Prof. Ajit Tyagi, Senior Advisor, , IRADe Co-Chair Mr. Shakti Singh Chaudhary, Mayor, Gangtok Municipal Corporation Discussants 3.00 -3.10 pm Mr. Vijay V Mugal, Director, Geological Survey of India, Sikkim Unit 3.10- 3.20 pm Dr G N Raha, Director, Met Centre, Gangtok 3.20- 3.30 pm Mr Surajit Baruah, State Project Manager, UNDP 3.30 – 3.40 pm Dr A K Swain, Senior Geologist, GSI 3.40-3.50 pm Wing Commander Praful Rao, Founder and CEO, Save the Hills 3.50-4.00 pm Dr Rakesh Ranjan, Assistant Professor, Dept. of Geology, Sikkim University 4.00-4.10 pm Dr Ishwarjit Singh, Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Sikkim University 4.00 – 4.30 pm Recommendations of the stakeholders - Open Floor Way forward – Dr Ajit Tyagi, Dr Jyoti Parikh, Mr Rohit Magotra, Dr Diganta Barman and Dr 4.30 - 5 pm Mithilesh Singh
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ANNEXURE B: LIST OF PARTICIPANTS
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ANNEXURE C: PHOTOGRAPHS FROM THE WORKSHOP
1 Delegates on the dais in the Inaugural Session
2 Group photograph of participants of the workshop 12
OF THE PROJECT ^I/INUTES PARTNER INCEPTION WORKSHOP ON ' ,_EVELO'TNG DTSASTER RESrr. pLer pRroRrrzrNG rENcE ACTro' iniou'ii crs er.ro ^- AcroNs FoR NAr-uRnL-orsndrEH irEi'di'oir"cl"ror.rs rN uRBAN AGGLoMERATToNS oF sHTLLoNG Aruo cnn-[ior. ;
Oate: 2sth August, 2017 Venue: NESAC, Umiam, Meghalaya o starred by a wetcome address from Director, NESAC Shri pLN IT lll"r*,gnhe expressed I_"r! -ryne]e his optimism for the upcoming collaboration between NESAC, GB PANT & IRADE.
, There was a brief round of self introduction by all the participants from NESAC, IRADE & GB PANT,
Prof. Ajit '!' ryagi, who represented |RADE gave a brief opening remark about project the overall scope and objectives and expectations out of it. ' .:. Dr. Diganta ,,SF,, Barman, Scientist & mordinator from NESAC side, apprised the participants briefly about the background of this upcoming collaboration. .} Dr. ,'SG,, KK Sarma, Scientist from NESAC, delivered a presentation on overall activities of NESAC for the understanding of participants from TRADE & cB PANT. ,,C,, n Dr. (Mrs) Mithilesh Singh, Scientist & coordinator from cB pant, Sikkim gave unit, an elaborate presentation on the studies and activities taken up by hei lnstitute. She mosfly emphasised on the works going on in the Sikkim Unit and cast light on th€ existing infrastructure, laboratory ind gardens present in the campus that aids in the ecosystem conservation and development studies of the Himalayan Eco-system.
* Mr. Rohit Magotra, from IRADE, gave a brief presentation on the various work areas of their lnstitute. They have done vulnerability assessment from climate change point of view by developing their own methodologies. Their previous work involves climate change and environmental assessment, agro and food security issues, productivity enhancement, poverty alleviation and gender equality issues, etc. On the upcoming collaborative pOect, Mr. Rohit Magotra, Asst. Director, IRADE, briefly presented on the proposal that has been approved by the ministry. He also elaborated on the roles to be played by the collaborating agencies in t'ne prqed concerned. The prime objectives as understood from his plesentation are (a) Preparation of 1:4000 scale city map comprising of public & private infrastructure, Roads, major drains, land-use etc. (b) ldentification and mapping of critical infrastructures from disaster stand point. (c) Development of a resilience action plan through multi-stake holder consultancies. (d) Spreading awareness & adaptive capacity building among the urban populace of these two hill towns of NER for disaster resilience.
During the discussion on responsibilities of lhe partner organizations, it was agreed upon that the Geospatial mapping component along with identification of different hazard areas will be taken up by NESAC, where as the adaptive and resilience capacity estimation of the two urban populace based on socio-economic analysis and other relevant components such as awareness generation and capacity building etc will be taken up by the Sikkim Unit of GBPNIHBSD. IRADE will play the anchoring and co-ordinating/ felicitating role in the project.
.t As regard lo Hazard area identification for seismic hazards, Dr' Diganta Barman, NESAC raised the issue of genuine difficulty of doing seismic micro-zonation under the present scope and budget of the concerned upcoming project Dr' Rekha B Gogoi, NESAC explained i; detail on that issue. Mr. M.K Kaistha and Mr' G' Roigmeifrom GSl, Shillong also gave their similar thought on this issue of seismic micr6-zonation. nli partlei agreet that seismic hazard areas will be identified based on various literatures available with peer/ expert agencies like the GSl, IMD etc for the two urban agglomerations. gave brief '.' Dr. Diganta Barman and Sri Santanu Das, both from NESAC a preseniation on the background work done at NESAC for the two urban areas for developing basic undersianding on them. During this presentation .Dr' Diganta Barran ai"o pointed out the importance of scale compatibility among the datasets which would be incorporated from different sources.
.l Dr. (Mrs) Mithilesh Singh, GB PANT, Sikkim, presented on literalure survey of the projeCt and declared their capability and commitment for the "orion.ntupcoming project in th;ir component for both Shillong and Gangtok' both NESAC , Prof. Ajit Tyagi and Mr. Rohit Magotra, both from IRADE, requested Cg p"nrl Sikkim to prepare iheir individual project methodology note as early as"nJ possible and submit them to IRADE for release of fund'
Dr. Diganta Barman from NESAC requested IRAOE to kindly.share the final nrooo".-"t submitted to and approved by the ministry along detailed budgetary ;;;;;i;"" "";";;tii;r indicated bv both NESAc and GB Pant, sikkim rrr. Rohit 'l\ilagotra from IRADE agreed to share them at the earliest' holder Prof. Ajit Tyagi from IRADE was of the opinion to conduct the Stake ;;;*;;" ito!r".r. in both the study areas' The Jirst one he proposed in the ,iOoL oi rubr"'.b"r, 2017 which was agreed by all the partners' Prof' Tyagi also i"i ;""0 tased involvement of scientific and socio-economic NGos in this"rgg"1Ga project. * Mr. Rohit Magotra, IRADE gave a concluding presentation demonstrating the project completion time line. He also opined that as already around 3 months time has elapsed from the documented starting date due to administrative reasons, hence all partners should expedite their component of work at the earliest. t Director, NESAC Shri PLN Raju assured full and active participation of NESAC in upcoming collaborative Project.
* The half day long discussion ended with a formal vote of thanks proposed by Prof' Ajit Tyagi, IRADE.
Prepared by #1*** Dr. D n ScientisU Engineer "SF" NESAC
Checked & apProved bY od^w> P.L.N Raju Director. NESAC
************** List of ParticiPants
Desi nation o anization Name NESAC PLN RA u Director Advisor IRADE Prof itT IRADE otra Asst. Director Rohit Ma NESAC I er SG Dr. K.K Sarma SclentisU E n ne ineer "SF" NESAC Dr. Di anta Barman ScientisV En GSI Shillon M.K Kaistha Senior Geol ist GSI Shillon G. Ron mel Senior Geo ist GBPNIHBSD Dr Mrs Mithilesh Sin h Scientist "C" NESAC S.S Kundu ScientisV E ineer "SE" NESAC Dr. J.M Non rih ScientisU En ineer "SE" NESAC M. Somo it si h ScientisU En I neer SE I n I SD NESAC Rekha B Go ol Sc I entisV En ee NESAC Santanu Das ScientisU E ineer "SC" I r SC NESAC A un B.M Sc ent I SU En nee NESAC Shanbor Kurbah Research Scientist NESAC Swakan kha Ghose Research Scientist NESAC Suran ana Borah Research Scientist NESAC An ana Borah Research Scientist NESAC L. Sandi Vare Research Scientist February, 2018
RAPID CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF GANGTOK, SIKKIM
Developing Disaster Resilience Action Plan Through GIS & Prioritising Actions for Natural Disaster Risk Reduction in Urban Agglomerations of Shillong & Gangtok Gangtok City, Sikkim Gangtok, the capital city of Sikkim, is located in the eastern Himalayan range. The city is flanked on east and west by two streams, namely Roro Chu and Ranikhola, respectively, comprising 17 municipal wards. These two rivers divide the natural drainage into two parts, the eastern and western parts.
Fig 1: Gangtok City map
Gangtok City Characteristics
Indicators Characteristics Classification of the city Hill Location 27°20’N 88°37’E Area 19.016 sq.km Climate Type Subtropical highland climate Temperature Average Annual Maximum Temperature - 27°C Average Annual Minimum Temperature - 19°C Rainfall Average annual : 3494 mm Height above Mean Sea Level 1,676 m above MSL
Fig2: The main road connecting Gangtok to other cities Fig3: Gangtok M G Marg and towns
Steep slopes, vulnerability to landslides, large forest cover and inadequate access to most areas characterize Gangtok. Unplanned urbanization and rapid construction on the hill slopes has increased the risk of environmental degradation in Gangtok. Hazard Exposure Sl. No Hazard Type Exposure 1 Flash Flood Y 2 Drought/ Heat Wave N 3 Earthquakes Y 4 Landslides Y 5 Forest Fires Y 6 Heavy Rainfall Y 7 Hailstorms/thundering Y
Hazard Timeline
Index Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Landslides
Flash Flood
Hailstorm/thundering
Forest Fire
Earthquake
Fig4: Landslide occurrences in Gangtok Gangtok City Rapid Vulnerability Assessment
DESCRIPTION
SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
Population • 100,286 (as per 2011 Census)
Density • 5,223 persons per sq.km
Slum Population • 20,504 ( 6,085 HHs) Notified & Non-notified slums1
HAZARD AND EXTREME EVENTS
Temperature observed • Due to its elevation and sheltered environment, Gangtok has a mild, temperate climate all year round and projection • Average Maximum Temperature (2016) ranged between 27oC & 19oC respectively
Temperature • By 2030s, the average annual temperature of Sikkim is projected to rise by 1.8 to 2.1°C with respect to 1970s (State Projections Action Plan on Climate Change for Sikkim, 2011).
Rainfall observed trend • Rainfall rises from pre-monsoon in May, and peaks during the monsoon, with July recording the highest monthly and projections average of (Meteorological Center, Gangtok, 2008). • Snowfall recorded in year 1990, 2004, 2005, & 2011
Rainfall Projections • Sikkim is likely to experience a fall of about 3% in precipitation by 2030 with respect to 1970 (INCCA, 2010; State Action Plan on Climate Change for Sikkim, 2011).
1 RAY Socio-economic HH survey (SFCPoA, Gangtok, 2013) Extreme events : • In 2016, landslide hit Sikkim-Bengal border, resulting in loss of lives (data NA) Landslides • In 2015, landslides near Rambhi, on the outskirts of Siliguri on the way to hills had disrupted the road traffic between Gangtok and the North Bengal hub
Earthquakes • Sikkim is placed in Zone IV/V of seismic vulnerability indicating high risk zone • 6.9-magnitude earthquake hit Sikkim in September 2011. It killed 70 people and destroyed villages. Its epicenter was located at Chungthang, Sikkim.
Urban Floods/ Flash • In 2012, flash floods triggered by a series of landslides killed 22 people and washed away nearly 30km of highway Floods in north Sikkim.
INFRASTRUCTURE STATUS2,3
Water Supply • Per capita water supply is low at 60-70 lpcd • 75% of the households (HHs) have water supply connections • River Rateychu is the primary source of water supply • The city has one water treatment plant of 41MLD at Selep (capacity 41 MLD)
Sewerage • The city has 42% coverage of sewerage network services, with 96% coverage of individual & community toilets • The sewer system and storm water drainage systems are separate in Gangtok, with no treatment facility for the drains which are presently being discharged into the natural streams
Solid Waste • The city generates about 50MT of solid waste daily Management • Only about 40% of municipal solid waste is collected in Gangtok area. A significant amount of waste is dumped into the nearest water course (Jhora), streets and valley. • There is also no provision for collection & disposal of hazardous toxic wastes generated from industries. • Declared the best among the top 10 cleanest city in India, 2015, Gangtok Municipal Corporation (GMC) has developed a programme called “Engage 14 Programme” to engage schoolchildren in the process of understanding SWM. • Gangtok Municipal Corporation (GMC) has already initiated work to improve the situation at Martam landfill site.
Storm Water Drainage • Only 24% of the city area has storm water drainage network • Roadside drains cover 3774 km, out of which 28.09% are still earthen or below the required capacity. • Incidence rate of sewerage and storm water mixing is 25-30 % • Incidence of water logging days is 4.72%.
Transportation • The share of personal vehicles and taxis combined is 98% of Gangtok’s total vehicles, a high percentage when compared to other Indian cities. • The 1 km (0.6 mi) long cable car with three stops connects lower Gangtok suburbs with Sikkim Legislative assembly in central Gangtok and the upper suburbs.
Power • Gangtok has a nearly uninterrupted electricity supply due to Sikkim’s numerous hydroelectric power stations.
Housing • Urban Development and Housing Department are the nodal agencies for providing individual urban housing in the state. • High demand for rental housing in the urban areas, nearly 79%, ( CDP, 2011)
GOVERNANCE
Administrative Units • Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority assigned to address • Gangtok Municipal Corporation: Municipal Disaster Management Committee, Ward Disaster Management climate change Committee etc.
Willingness of the city • City Disaster Management Plan, Multi hazard Vulnerability Assessment, SSDMA, Comprehensive mobility Plan, to address Climate re-frame - ‘ City Development Plan (CDP) Gangtok has been developed Change
2 SLIPS (Service Level Improvement Plans) data, AMRUT, NIUA, 2016-17 3 City Development Plan Gangtok, 2011 February, 2018
RAPID CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF SHILLONG, MEGHALAYA
Developing Disaster Resilience Action Plan Through GIS & Prioritising Actions for Natural Disaster Risk Reduction in Urban Agglomerations of Shillong & Gangtok Shillong City, Meghalaya Shillong, capital city of Meghalaya, is located on the deeply dissected central upland zone of the Meghalaya Plateau. It is the largest and most urbanized city in the hill state of Meghalaya, comprising 27 municipal wards (2016).
Fig 1: Shillong Urban Agglomeration (Source: CDP, Shillong)
Characteristics of Shillong City
Indicators Characteristics Classification of the city Hill city Location 25°34’00”N & 91°53’00”E Area 10.36 sq km Climate Type Subtropical highland climate Temperature1 Average Annual Maximum Temperature temperature - 20° C Average Annual Minimum Temperature - 12°C Rainfall Average annual : 2,162 mm Height above Mean Sea Level 1,497 mts above MSL
Fig2: Shillong City Overview Fig3: Panorama of police bazar, Shillong Economic hub
The city is vulnerable to natural hazards like earthquake, landslide, heavy rainfall, floods etc., as well as man -made hazards like road accidents, fires, water scarcity due to rapid growth of urbanization and improper and uncontrolled construction.
1 IMD, 2010 Hazard Exposure Sl. No Hazard Type Exposure 1 Heavy Rains Y 2 Drought Y 3 Cyclones N 4 Landslides/avalanches Y 5 Floods Y 6 Thunderstorm/ Lightning Y
Hazard Timeline
Hazards Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Flash Floods
Extreme winds
Landslide
Earthquakes
Thunderstorm/Lightning/Hailstorms
Fig4: Landslide occurrences in Shillong Vulnerability Profile of Shillong City
DESCRIPTION SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERICTICS Population • 2001 Population – 132,867; 2011 Population – 143,229. Growth Rate – 7.79% • The population of Shillong forms 68% of the total urban population of the state (CDP). Density • ~ 13,825 per sq km in 2011 Slums • 12 slum pockets, covering 10% of the city population HAZARD AND EXTREME EVENTS Temperature observed • Average Annual Maximum temperature - 20° C • Average Annual Minimum temperature -12° C Temperature • Average temperature is expected to increase by 1.6-1.7°C by 2050 (Meghalaya State Action Plan on Climate Projections Change, 2015) Rainfall observed trend • Average annual rainfall - 2,162 mm • Hailstorms, thunderstorms and squalls are common Rainfall projections • East Khasi hills district is expected to experience an increase of 10-15% in precipitation by 2050. (Meghalaya State Action Plan on Climate Change, 2015) Extreme events : Urban • Frequent incidences of water logging in the city, particularly during rains. Floods/ Flash Floods • August 2014, incessant rains over 24 hours caused flash flood in the city Landslides • In 2014, torrential rain triggered landslide killing 8 people in Mawbah area of Shillong2 • In 2015, 12 people were killed in the landslides in Meghalaya3
2 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Eight-killed-in-Shillong-landslide-flood-toll-34/articleshow/43322889.cms 3 http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/five-people-killed-in-maghalaya-landslides-772087 Water Scarcity • Growing water shortages in the face of rapid urbanization. Water scarcity in Shillong is owing to both quality and quantity deficit. • Historical trend indicates decrease in rainfall Earthquakes • City falls under the high risk Seismic Zone V • Earthquake measuring 5.2 on the Richter scale rocked the entire northeast India, including Shillong and adjoining Bangladesh on March, 20024 another earthquake was recorded in April, 2016 INFRASTRUCTURE STATUS5 Water Supply • The main source of water supply for Greater Shillong is River Umium. • In 2016-17, almost 77% of the house-holds (HHs) have water supply connection • The per capita water supply is low at 78lpcd • Water connections are not metered; only 12% of the water services cost is recovered. Sewerage • 94% HHs in the city have individual or community toilet, of which, 5.82% HHs are being provided sanitary toilet facilities under “Swachh Bharat” mission • No sewage treatment plant; sullage drains either into the River Umshyrpi in the south or in the Um Khrah in the north. Solid Waste • 159 MT of municipal solid waste is produced per day, 0.4 kg of waste per capita per day. The major solid waste Management generation sources are households(56%), markets(23%), hotels & restaurants(7%), construction waste(2%), and street sweeping(7%)6 • In the Shillong Municipal Board (SMB) area, 46% of the waste generated is collected, while outside the SMB area 32% waste is collected. For the entire GSPA (Greater Shillong Planning Area) the percentage of garbage collected is 41%. • Garbage collected is disposed of into the gorges of the trenching ground situated at Mawlai on Shillong Guwahati Road.7 Storm Water Drainage • The drains run for 148.91 km across city and empty into the Umkhrah and Umshyrpi rivers • Storm water drainage network coverage is less than 75%. Transportation • Total road length in Shillong is 356 km and road density is 2.05 km/sq km8. • Non-Motorized Transport (MNT) has not being stressed upon in the city Comprehensive Mobility Plan (CMP) due to undulating topography and operational constrains Power • Average domestic electricity consumption is 300 units /house/day; average commercial consumption is 450 units /shop/day • The agencies responsible for electricity supply, management and distribution are: (1) North Eastern Regional Electricity Board, Shillong; (2) Meghalaya State Electricity Board, Shillong and (3) North Eastern Electric Power Corporation Limited (NEEPCO) Housing • Only about 46 % of houses are made of concrete, the remaining are made of wood and burnt bricks. • Of the 65 slum pockets in Shillong UA, all except two slums are on private land.9 • A total of 3567 housing units are required for slums and urban poor in the city10. GOVERNANCE Administrative Units • Shillong Municipal Board manages civic services of water supply and solid waste management etc. assigned to address • East Khasi hills District Commissioner office is leading Disaster Risk Reduction and disaster management planning climate change Meghalaya Basin Development Authority, Meghalaya Disaster Management Authority and the state government are important stakeholders in Disaster Risk Reduction Willingness of the city • The Forest and Environment Department, Government of Meghalaya, and the Meghalaya Basin Development 11 to address Climate Authority developed Meghalaya State Action Plan on Climate Change in 2015 Change • Local government, including Shillong Municipal Board (SMB), and district unit are implementing Urban Risk Reduction (URR) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) programme with support from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). This involves integration of risk reduction into urban development programming, while assessing risk and vulnerabilities and strengthening Building codes, Bye laws and development control regulations (DCR). • Urban Local Bodies (ULB) and UNDP are also working on developing ward-level risk –assessment, including understanding of the existing early warning systems, identifying formal & informal mitigation actions and recommendations.
4 http://www.meghalayatimes.info/index.php/10-front-page/front-page/18383-5-2-intensity-earthquake-rocks-shillong 5 SLIPS, AMRUT, NIUA, 2016-17 6 http://www.int-arch-photogramm-remote-sens-spatial-inf-sci.net/XL-7-W3/657/2015/isprsarchives-XL-7-W3-657-2015.pdf 7 Shillong Municipal Board. http://smb.gov.in/projects.html 8 City Development Plan, Shillong 9 http://mhupa.gov.in/writereaddata/csmc015-MeghalayaPPT.pdf 10 HFA Demand Survey-2016, Census-2011, RAY-2015 & SECC Data 11 http://www.moef.nic.in/sites/default/files/sapcc/Meghalaya.pdf Annexure 1: Background Paper
Developing Disaster Resilience Action plan through GIS and prioritising actions for Natural Disaster Risk Reduction in Urban Agglomerations of Shillong & Gangtok
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Annexure 1: Background Paper
Contents Chapter 1 ...... 4 1.Introduction ...... 4 1.2 Objectives ...... 7 1.3 Outputs of the project ...... 7 Chapter 2 ...... 9 2. Project Methodology/ Approach Overview ...... 9 2.1 Literature Review of Disaster Management Interventions and Studies ...... 9 2.1.1 Gangtok city, Sikkim ...... 9 2.1.2 Shillong city, Meghalaya ...... 11 2. 2.2 Rapid Vulnerability Assessment using Smart H-I-G-S Framework ...... 13 2.3 Land Use and Land Cover Mapping, Hazard Risk Mapping & Vulnerable Zone Identification ..... 16 2.4 Data collection related to urban parameters and environment & Analysis ...... 16 2.5 Mapping Hazard Risk and vulnerable zones of the city ...... 17 2.6 Action plan for Developing Disaster Resilience of 2 identified cities ...... 17 2.7 Capacity Building Workshops ...... 18 2.8 Result Dissemination and Policy Recommendations ...... 18 Chapter 3 ...... 19 3. Study Area ...... 19 3.1 Shillong city ...... 19 3.1.1 Vulnerability Profile of Shillong to natural hazards ...... 20 3.2 Gangtok city ...... 27 ...... 28 3.2.1 Vulnerability Profile of Gangtok to Natural Hazards ...... 30 Chapter 4 ...... 36 4. Future climate change projections ...... 36 4.1 Gangtok city, Sikkim ...... 36 4.2 Shillong city, Meghalaya ...... 38 4.3 Conclusion from Rapid Vulnerability Assessment (RVA) ...... 39
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Annexure 1: Background Paper
List of Figures Figure 1: Disaster Management Cycle ...... 5 Figure 2: HIGS Framework ...... 14 Figure 3: Project Approach ...... 15 Figure 4: Framework for developing 1:4000 scale Vulnerability Maps ...... 16 Figure 5: Shillong Urban Agglomeration (Source: CDP, Shillong) ...... 19 Figure 6: Gangtok City (Source: Gangtok Municipal Corporation) ...... 28 Figure 7: Land-use change of Gangtok (1976- 2014) ...... 29 Figure 8: Incidents of Landslides in Gangtok (1990- 2005) ...... 30 Figure 9: Change in maximum and minimum temperatures in Sikkim in mid-century (2050s) and at the end of the century (2080s) ...... 36 Figure 10: Change in maximum and minimum precipitation in Sikkim in mid-century (2050s) and at the end of the century (2080s) ...... 37
List of Tables Table 1: India’s Annual Average loss by disasters ( in million $) ...... 4 Table 2: Characteristics of Shillong City ...... 20 Table 3: History of Disasters in Shillong City ...... 20 Table 4: Hazard exposure of Shillong city ...... 21 Table 5: Hazard Timeline of Shillong City ...... 24 Table 6: Vulnerability profile of Shillong city ...... 25 Table 7: Characteristics of Gangtok City ...... 28 Table 8: Hazard exposure of Gangtok ...... 30 Table 9: Disaster Timeline of Gangtok ...... 32 Table 10: Vulnerability profile of Gangtok city ...... 33 Table 11: Projected changes in temperature in the districts of Meghalaya by 2021-50 ...... 38 Table 12: Projected changes in precipitation in the districts of Meghalaya by 2021-50 ...... 39
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Annexure 1: Background Paper
Chapter 1
1.Introduction
Disasters are defined as event or series of events, which gives rise to casualties and damage or loss of properties, infrastructure, environment, essential services or means of livelihood on such a scale which is beyond the normal capacity of the affected community to cope with. Disaster is also sometimes described as a “catastrophic situation in which the normal pattern of life or eco-system has been disrupted and extra- ordinary emergency interventions are required to save and preserve lives and or the environment”1.
The DM Act 2005 uses the following definition for disaster: "Disaster" means a catastrophe, mishap, calamity or grave The UNISDR (2009) defines disaster as: “A occurrence in any area, arising from natural or manmade serious disruption of the functioning of a causes, or by accident or negligence which results in community or a society involving widespread substantial loss of life or human suffering or damage to, and human, material, economic or environmental destruction of, property, or damage to, or degradation of, losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability environment, and is of such a nature or magnitude as to be of the affected community or society to cope beyond the coping capacity of the community of the affected using its own resources.” area. “community or society to cope using its own resources.”
Source: National Disaster Management Plan, NDMA GoI, 2016
The geo-climatic conditions along with high socio-economic vulnerability makes India one of the most disaster prone country in the world. India is exposed to multiple natural disasters including earthquakes, floods, cyclones, landslides, tsunami etc. In the years between 1996 and 2001, India lost 2% of national GDP to natural disasters and nearly 12% of government revenue was spent on relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction2. India’s average economic loss due to disaster annually is estimated to be approximately USD 10 billion3 (Table 1). According to an estimate, about 4.8 million Indians are hit by disasters each year at present, but by 2030 that could rise to about 19 million if India doesn't invest in disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures4. Table 1: India’s Annual Average loss by disasters ( in million $) Disaster Loss (in million $) Earthquakes 19 Cyclones 447 Storm Surge 727 Tsunami 1160 Flood 7472 Total 9825
Source: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015
1 Disaster management in India, Ministry of Home Affairs, GoI, 2011 2 http://www.simplydecoded.com/2013/10/21/india-disaster-profile-and-management/. Page accessed on 09/06/2017 3 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 4 Thakur, P (2015) Disasters cost India $10bn per year: UN report, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Disasters-cost-India-10bn-per-year-UN-report/articleshow/46522526.cms. Page accessed on 09/06/2017 4
Annexure 1: Background Paper
Over the next two decades, India’s GDP is expected to grow at an annual rate of 7 to 8 percent. During the same period, it will build approximately 80 percent of the physical assets—including infrastructure, commercial and residential real estate, vehicle stock, and industrial capacity that will constitute the India of 2030, so it is important that disaster resilience should be made part of the city planning and building design. The "smart cities" effort, in 100 cities across India, aims to create urban spaces where green, high- tech initiatives bring more efficient management of resources, including water and energy, and better services to citizens. To make cities disaster resilient right at the inception stage, the efficiency in urban planning can have a major impact on communities’ preparedness and capacities to recover. Smart growth strategies like creating flexible land-use policies, targeting public investment, and engaging the entire community in making decisions can help communities recover from a disaster, rebuild according to a shared community vision, and be better prepared for a disaster. Urbanization exerts environmental stress (air, water and land pollution, deforestation) which increases the frequency of natural disasters like floods, landslides, water scarcity etc. Besides, poor legal enforcement of regulations and inadequate infrastructure services increase the vulnerability of the socially and economically marginalized people in cities including women & children Thus, there is a need for systematic review to collect evidences relating the impact of urbanization on disaster risk and vulnerability to natural disasters. Disaster resilient cities can be achieved through multi-sectoral and multi-stakeholder approach along with policy level intervention. It is always required that the preparedness (resilience) of the cities should be such that minimum time is taken in response, recovery and risk reduction measures. The Disaster Management Cycle5 is an ongoing process by which governments, businesses, and civil society plan for and reduce the impact of disasters, react during and immediately following a disaster, and take steps to recover after the disaster. These phases illustrated do not always, or even generally, occur in isolation or in this precise order. Often phases of the cycle overlap and the length of each phase greatly depends on the severity of the disaster.
Figure 1: Disaster Management Cycle
The imminent climate change poses another challenge as it may lead to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and timing of extreme weather and climate events. The IPCC special report on extreme events6 states that increase in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes
5 Disaster Risk Reduction in the United Nations 2009, Roles, Mandates and Areas of Work of Key United Nations Entities (ISDR)
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Annexure 1: Background Paper and decrease in cold extremes will occur in the 21st century at a global scale. This will further enhance the length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves over most land areas. Settlement patterns, urbanization, and changes in socioeconomic conditions will influence the trends in exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes. Current city development master plans focus only on the demand and supply side of infrastructure and not about its disaster risk resilience and coping capacity in the long run. An assessment of their existing vulnerabilities to disasters can provide guidance for their development and for formulating strategies to reduce vulnerability and increase disaster resilience.
The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR), in particular, is considered to be vulnerable to a variety of natural disasters like earthquakes, floods, landslides, forest fires etc. Disasters like high intensity earthquakes of a magnitude exceeding 8.0 on the Richter Scale have shaken the region in the past and scientists warn that such severe earthquakes are likely to occur anytime in the IHR, which would adversely affect the lives of several million people in India. In the last several decades, four such major earthquakes that has occurred in the region are: Shillong, 1897 (M8.7); Kangra, 1905 (M.8.0); Bihar–Nepal, 1934 (M 8.3); and Assam– Tibet, 1950 (M 8.6). Northeast (NE) India, particularly, is vulnerable to natural and man-made disasters like landslides, torrential rainfall, flash floods, earthquakes, forest fires etc. because of its location in the eastern Himalayan periphery, fragile geo-environmental setting and economic underdevelopment. A high degree of vulnerability to these disasters will increasingly make the region environmentally insecure in the future unless pragmatic interventions are made immediately. The seven states of NE region lie in Seismic Zone V and Sikkim lies in Zone IV which poses serious threats to life and property.
Physical risks and vulnerabilities posed by disasters in the Himalayan cities are often accompanied by lack of necessary resources – financial, human and institutional – as well as access to relevant scientific information to cope with them. Such constraints call for an urgent need to enhance the knowledge base and adaptive capacity of cities by the integration of disaster risk reduction into urban planning.
The Disaster Management Act, 2005 clearly specifies the need to adopt a proactive and holistic approach for disaster management/disaster risk reduction, instead of a reactive and responsive approach. City level (ward level) maps are crucial to build upon a responsive approach. The topographical maps presently available from the Survey of India (SOI) are at the scale of 1:50000 and therefore not suitable for DRR activities. It is difficult to delineate features such as hospitals, schools, fire stations, residential and commercial buildings which are heavily impacted and damaged during the disastrous events. In addition, such coarse resolutions maps do not show linear features such as road networks in sufficient detail so as to allow the work of microzonation and vulnerability assessment. Therefore, there is a need for preparing the maps at cadastral scale in order to develop site-level disaster risk maps. NDMA suggests mapping for disaster risk assessment at 1:10000 and 1:2000 scale, with 1:2000 scale suggested for site-specific mapping. However, the mapping at 1:2000 scale, though highly useful, will require use of aerial photographs which are not readily available, as well as relatively difficult to acquire. With the presently available Cartosat-2 data, mapping upto 1:4000 scale is recommended by National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC)7.
In 2013-14, Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) conducted a study on disaster resilience across 10 cities in India viz. Pune, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Vishakhapatnam, Hyderabad, Bhubaneswar, Shillong, Guwahati, Dehradun and Srinagar8. It was found that most of these cities are prone
7 http://www.nrsc.gov.in/Data_Products_Services_Satellite_Data_Order.html, page accessed on 17/01/2016. 8Parikh J., Magotra R., Singh M.K., Sandal G., Kaushik A. and Dhingra M., 2015, Sustainable and Disaster Resilient Urban Development, Report Series on 10 Cities, IRADe, New Delhi 6
Annexure 1: Background Paper to various hazards like earthquakes, flash floods, water logging, cyclones, cold waves, landslides etc. The study included two NE cities, Guwahati and Shillong, which are facing the challenges of rapid urbanization, natural disasters and climate change related risks.
The current project proposes to study two NE cities (Shillong and Gangtok) of IHR with a view to develop disaster resilience plans by highlighting cities’ exposure to potential risks and hazards using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The degree of impact of such disasters depends on the vulnerability of the community to natural hazards, including the level of economic development, adequacy of basic services provided, demographic characteristics and structure; and other factors (like livelihoods of its members, education levels, etc.). For the study we have proposed to develop maps at the scale of 1:4000 for disaster assessment in the selected cities. Such maps with layers of socio-economic data, hazard risks will lead to identification of micro vulnerable zones of the identified urban centers in the NE Region. This will further facilitate the city administrators, planners (urban local bodies) and citizens to develop effective strategies for disaster risk reduction and building disaster resilient cities.
1.2 Objectives
The current study proposes to measures the physical, socio-economic impacts of disasters such as flooding, earthquake, landslides, etc. on the NE cities viz. Shillong and Gangtok. One of the objectives of the study is vulnerability profiling of the selected cities by highlighting various risk exposure and vulnerability factors on scale of 1:4000 for assessing disaster resilience and adaptive capacity. The approach is to develop action plan for disaster resilience for the cities. This study shall bank on the analysis of primary and secondary research and data collection pertaining to the selected disaster events and their resultant impacts. The project helps to understand the options to reduce direct and indirect losses through integration of climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. It will provide regional understanding of the risks and actions to address vulnerability and adaptation of the Himalayan cities.
The goal is “To provide decision supporting tools for disaster risk reduction for North East Region cities which includes development of cadastral maps for micro zonation of hazard risks and develop action plan for developing disaster resilience of the identified cities”. The detailed objectives are: 1. To develop cadastral maps at the scale of 1:4000 and map the hazard/disaster wise vulnerable zones of the Shillong and Gangtok urban agglomerations. 2. To identify and map critical infrastructure at risk through ground surveys – telecommunication, emergency operation centres, shelter, slums, hospitals, schools etc. on cadastral maps of 1:4000. 3. To develop a disaster resilience action plan for the identified cities and prioritize actions for disaster risk reduction through multi-stakeholder consultations involving citizens, government, public and private sector. 4. To spread awareness and capacity building of citizens, city, district and state authorities on disaster resilience of the North East Region Cities
1.3 Outputs of the project
Following outputs have been envisaged from the project:
Land use/land cover maps of NE cities at cadastral scale 1:4000
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Annexure 1: Background Paper
Disaster wise Vulnerable zone maps of identified cities Vulnerability assessment of selected NE cities to natural disasters Critical infrastructure risk mapping of identified cities Disaster resilience plans for the two NE cities Capacity building of city, district and state authorities on disaster resilience.
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Annexure 1: Background Paper
Chapter 2
2. Project Methodology/ Approach Overview
The entire methodology will consist of several steps as shown in Fig3. A brief about various steps is given below:
2.1 Literature Review of Disaster Management Interventions and Studies 2.1.1 Gangtok city, Sikkim
At the State and district level, Govt of India & UNDP has been working with Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority, Govt of Sikkim, to develop plans and strategies towards disaster resilience and management9. GOI-UNDP project on “Enhancing Institutional and Community Resilience to Disasters and Climate Change (2013-2017)” provides technical support to strengthen capacities of government, communities and institutions to fast-track implementation of the planning frameworks on Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation. The key components of the project are: Mainstreaming DRR and CCA in Development Planning, Urban Risk Reduction, Technical Assistance and Capacity Building, Support for Knowledge Management and Enhancing resilience of vulnerable communities to cope with disasters and climate variability by implementing scalable demonstrative pilot initiatives. The GOI-UNDP ‘Disaster Risk Management Programme, 2002-09’, implemented by Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), Govt. of India and Land Revenue and Disaster Management Department, Govt. of Sikkim for the 4 districts of Sikkim aimed towards community capacity building. The programme undertook widespread training of Community Volunteer, Civil Defense, Home Guard and the Fire Service in Search and Rescue, First Aid, and Evacuation, Relief and Shelter Management. GOI-UNDP Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, 2009-2012, implemented by National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Govt. of India and Land Revenue and Disaster Management Department, Govt. of Sikkim for the 4 districts of Sikkim worked on the two major components of Institutional Strengthening and capacity Building for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Urban Risk Reduction (URR). Sphere India, National Coalition of Humanitarian Agencies in the country, in collaboration with SSDMA and technical support from GOI-UNDP and its member agencies like Inter Agency Groups (IAGs) initiated the process to develop the Sikkim State Disaster Management Plan in 2015. The plan comprises of 4 volumes each dealing with specific aspects of Disaster Resilience & Management. Volume-110, DRR and Mitigation Plan (Green Book) enlists the specific actions to be taken during non-disaster time for DRR and mitigation measures, includes general situation; Hazard, Vulnerability & Capacity Analysis; Problem Analysis; SDMP development Strategy; and stakeholders analysis. Volume-211: State Disaster Response Plan (Red Book) enlists the specific actions to be performed at divisional level in case of any disaster situation. Volume-312: Checklists, Formats and Resource Database, is a separate compilation of useful checklists, assessment formats and database of resources available in Sikkim with the contact lists etc.
9 http://www.ssdma.nic.in/Home/ContentFor?MenuID=7&ContentFor=Content_SubMenu 10 http://ssdma.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=10136 11 http://ssdma.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=10137 12 http://ssdma.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=10138 9
Annexure 1: Background Paper
Volume-413: Specific Action Plans for Different Stakeholders, there are specific action plans for line departments and other key non-govt. stakeholders at the State level Report on Human Vulnerability Due to Natural Disasters, Sikkim, SSDMA14: In this report, an attempt has been made to find out the human vulnerabilities due to Landslides in Sikkim. The case study of this report will also facilitate GIS analysis for human vulnerability due to landslides in Sikkim and landslides mitigation program for the state. The main objectives of the study were to create an inventory and GIS mapping of district wise landslides of Sikkim and to study landslide and its Mitigation consisting of different measures specific to Sikkim Himalayas. Study of Forest Fires in Sikkim Himalayas, India Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques, by R. K. Sharma et al15. In this study, an attempt had been made to prepare the database on forest fires in Sikkim using IRS LISS III imagery at 1: 50,000 scale. During the study, date and time of forest fires in Sikkim were collected and near real-time monitoring using satellite imageries for forest fire was carried out. For the study, three seasons satellite imageries - 10th January 2009, 23rd March 2009 and 10th May 2009 of IRS P6 LISS III were selected. During the visual interpretation of the 10th January 2009 imagery four number of forest fires have been identified, while in the 23rd March 2009 imagery, 201 forest fires have been identified and using10th May 2009 imagery, 82 additional fire incidences have been identified with the total burnt area of 0.2214 sq. km, 22.975 sq. km, and 9.995 sq. km respectively Programmes and studies has also been initiated at the city level wherein, GOI-UNDP Urban Risk Reduction Programme, 2009-2012, implemented by Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), Govt. of India and Land Revenue and Disaster Management Department and Urban Development Housing Department, Govt. of Sikkim for Gangtok Municipal Corporation. The deliverables included Risk Assessment and Disaster Risk Reduction for Urban Development Programmes, Conduct urban risk and vulnerability assessments, Facilitate integration of risk reduction into urban development programmes, Capacity building in Urban Risk Reduction, Strengthen enforcement of building codes, by‐laws and development control regulations, Training and capacity‐building for safer construction practices and urban planning, Institutional Strengthening for Urban Risk Management, Strengthened institutional capacity, Strengthened disaster response capacity for city level, Urban Community‐based Disaster Risk Reduction, Urban Community- based Disaster Risk Management, Access to local level financial mechanisms for DRM In the article ‘Carbon Intensive Urbanization, Climate Vulnerability and Urban Vulnerabilities in hill area: Case study of Gangtok Urban Region, Sikkim’16 Dr. Acharya indicates that rapid urbanization along with rapid high carbon intensive urbanization have significant impact on the local climate, resulting in urban areas becoming more vulnerable to hazards, disasters, epidemics and diseases. The paper studies the then existing scenario of Gangtok urban area and the impact of urbanization on its immediate eco- system services and provides copping mechanism and strategies at local and state level.
13 http://ssdma.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=10139 14 http://www.ssdma.nic.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=68 15 http://www.sikkimforest.gov.in/climate-change-in-sikkim/14-Chapter- STUDY%20OF%20FOREST%20FIRES%20IN%20SIKKIM%20HIMALAYAS,%20INDIA%20USING.pdf 16 http://s3.amazonaws.com/academia.edu.documents/39082174/JIDC_18- 4_93.pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAIWOWYYGZ2Y53UL3A&Expires=1496305652&Signature=oSfWo6E6ymVGYvYknvrtNq6%2BBts%3D &response-content-disposition=inline%3B%20filename%3DCarbon_Intensive_Urbanisation_Climate_Va.pdf 10
Annexure 1: Background Paper
‘Seismic Vulnerability Study of Various lifeline Buildings (Schools & Hospitals) in Gangtok town, based on rapid Visual Screening’ 17 submitted by the Sikkim Manipal Institute of Technology and HRD Dept. Govt. of Sikkim comprised of seismic vulnerability study of the various lifeline buildings (schools and hospitals) in Gangtok town, based on RVS. The Rapid Visual Survey of structures were carried out in a scientific method involving the stakeholders as well as the Engineers from the Civil Engineering Cadre and the drawings of the sites and buildings were recreated as per the layout at site using AutoCAD software. Under GOI-UNDP-USAID Project On Enhancing Institutional & Community Resilience to Disasters and Climate Change, Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority & Gangtok Municipal Corporation developed ‘City Disaster Management Plan (Evacuation and Response), 2015’18. The report focuses on the overall Institutional arrangement of the city for disaster management, and provides evacuation and response and incident action plan and the responsibility of the city officials and management committees. The paper on ‘Use of remote sensing and GIS in disaster management in Gangtok area, Sikkim’19 by G.B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment & Development Sikkim Unit, Gangtok, 2010 stresses on the Geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) being very useful and effective tools in disaster management. Disaster mapping can help in locating risk zones as well as disaster impact zones. GIS, grouped with global positioning system (GPS) has been extremely useful in search and rescue operations in areas that have been devastated and where it is difficult to find one’s bearings. Disaster maps of scale 1:50,000 has been developed to show risk zones as well as disaster impact zones. Disaster mapping has been carried out for linking road network and landslide occurrences, earthquakes etc. Multi- hazard Vulnerability Assessment, East Sikkim Gangtok, 2012 by SSDMA20, the assessment was conducted by SSDMA (Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority) based on the technical data available by Department of Mines, Minerals and Geology, Government of Sikkim along with other Governmental and Non-governmental central and state government organizations. The GIS mapping was prepared by Disha Services, Gangtok.at the scale of 1: 25,000 and 1: 10,000. The susceptibility / vulnerability maps are developed for hazards like Drought, Earthquake, Fire, Flashflood, Landslides, Riots hail stones & snow/ avalanches.
2.1.2 Shillong city, Meghalaya
The Government of India along with United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) launched the Disaster Risk Reduction Programme (DRR) in 2009.21The Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was implemented in the 3 (three) Districts of Meghalaya namely East Khasi Hills, West Garo Hills and Jaintia Hills. One of the components of the Disaster Risk Reduction Programme namely the Urban Risk Reduction Programme was implemented in the capital city Shillong only. The State Disaster Management Plan22, Meghalaya was prepared by the Revenue & Disaster Management Department, Govt of Meghalaya in 2006. The plan assesses the existing vulnerability in the state along with the capabilities of the selected organizations in the state that play the key roles in promoting and strengthening disaster management activities. It emphasizes on the disaster management
17 http://ssdma.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=10187 18 http://ssdma.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=10188 19NMHS_Shillong%20&%20Gangtok/Study/Gangtok/Use%20of%20remote%20sensing%20and%20GIS%20in%20disaster%20management%2 0in%20Gangtok%20area, %20Sikkim%20-%20Geospatial%20World.html 20 http://www.ssdma.nic.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=68 21 http://megrevenuedm.gov.in/msdma/status_report.pdf 22 Shillong/state-disaster-mgmt-plan.pdf 11
Annexure 1: Background Paper
Arrangements and on the Meghalaya Relief Manual for the basic guidance relating to disaster management structure. The plan emphasizes on the mitigation and adaptation (recovery) plans for the state. Meghalaya Disaster Management Plan, 2016, Vol 1, 2 & 3, prepared by Meghalaya State Disaster Management Authority, Govt. of Meghalaya, comprises of the risk and vulnerability assessment of the state. It emphasizes the preventive and preparedness measures that would be necessary for disaster risk reduction in the state. It highlights the importance of mainstreaming Disaster management concerns into development plans and state level programmes. The report also encompasses the financial arrangements, timely review and updation of the plans. Volume 1 provides with details of the natural and manmade disaster (industrial hazards) that have occurred over the decades in the state and district level. In terms of the preventive measure, Nodal agencies and supportive agencies have been listed down in accordance to the types hazards, for example, Nodal agency for Earthquake hazard is Revenue & DM Dept. and the supportive agencies being IMD, MoES, GSI, NDRF, SDRF and armed forces. The volume also marks the climate change impact and adaptive reposes of the state, wherein climate change projects depicts warning of about 2oC by 2030, with an annual increase in annual rainfall. Indigenous knowledge and coping strategies has been given due consideration with equal opportunities and participation of local people. Volume 2 enlists the multi-hazard approach pf the DM Plan and describes response management arrangements for the state. Strategic plans, Emergency plan and public advises had been drafted for individual natural hazards. ‘District Disaster Management Plan, East Khasi Hills District, Shillong, 2015’23 was prepared under the section 31 of Disaster Management (DM) Act- 2005. It was developed after consultation with the local authorities and having regards to National Plan & the State Plan. The plan includes Vulnerability and Risk assessment, HRVA (Hazard Risk Vulnerability Assessment) for Shillong city was initiated with NESAC, Umiam by the Revenue & Disaster Management Dept. and SDMA. The plan also includes the Institutional arrangement with District Crisis Management Group (DCMG), District Hazard Safety Committee, Incident Response System (IRS) and Team (IRT), and District Emergency Operation Centre (DEOC). It focuses on the Prevention & mitigation Measures (structural and non-structural), multi-hazard and specific hazard mitigation actions. Conference on Global Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction - Major Initiatives in North East Towards Disaster Resilience, November, 2015 Shillong24 was organized by FICCI, NDMA, PBGRB, CIDM towards Preparedness and Emergency Management of Chemical, Petroleum, Petroleum Products and Natural Gas. The Meghalaya SDMA, has also published various reports, like Disaster Management Activities Report, upto 2015, which presents a glimpse of the various activities carried out by SDMA in taking up wide- ranging DM activities pertaining to awareness building and sensitization, capacity building as well as preparedness and mitigation measures. The Authority has also published a manual on Dos and Don’ts on Various Hazards, 2015, to help acquainting people for better management of different emergencies which might be encounter during disasters.
23 http://eastkhasihills.gov.in/disaster/DDMP_2015.pdf 24 http://www.cidm.in/cidm-shillong2.php 12
Annexure 1: Background Paper
Ms. Maitreyee Mukherjee has also prepared two manuals in Emergency Education in Disaster Management and Gender Mainstreaming in Disaster Management for SDMA, Meghalaya. The manuals stresses on the concept of emergency education as a useful tool in the process of restoring normalcy after disasters. It will provide with an opportunity for meaningful participation in the recovery, rebuilding and imparting knowledge and skills on various aspects. CSIR-NEIST Jorhat in association with National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Government of India implemented the scenario exercise for a repeat of the M 8.7 Shillong 1897 earthquake to assess the anticipated impact in NE region, NE multi state preparedness campaign in 2013. The exercise involves estimation of probable loss and damage by creating a scientific scenario besides various capacity building programs and Mega Mock Exercise to sensitize earthquake preparedness and mitigation efforts throughout NE India. NDMA had also entrusted, Indian Institute of Public Administration (IIPA) to evaluate the project in 201625. The evaluation of the project has been carried out for three main activities viz. generating awareness, through rapid visual survey (RVS) trainings, mass casualty management in schools and hospitals and capacity building of various stakeholders including State and district Level Nodal Officers from State Governments, Public Sector Organizations and all related line departments of all the eight states. Lastly, the assessment of the multi-state earthquake disaster preparedness and to evolve the coordinated response of SDMAs and NDMA.In 2016, GoI-UNDP initiated the project ‘Implementation of the USAID supported - Developing Resilient Cities through Risk Reduction in the context of Disaster and Climate Change’ in Shillong along with 5 other Indian cities. The project looks forward in reducing disaster risks in the urban areas by enhancing institutional capacities and enabling urban communities to be better prepared with increasing capacities to manage climate risks. UNDP is also currently working with the Shillong city administrators to assess the existing Early warning systems and Risk Assessments The study has been carried on at ward and block level and both formal and informal warning systems have been identified. The team has been working on providing recommendations and upgradation of the existing systems and institutionalization of the informal and effective early warning systems. 2.2 Rapid Vulnerability Assessment using Smart H-I-G-S Framework
The relation between disaster risk assessment and resilience to different parameters related to infrastructure, governance, hazards and socio-economic factors is a known phenomenon. Since the definition of disaster resilience is highly contextual and also governed by local/regional factors, the methodology adopted gives due consideration to local/regional parameters. IRADe has developed a framework for climate responsive urban development known as HIGS, where ‘H’ denotes Hazards and extreme events, ‘I’ is for the Infrastructure status, ‘G’ for Governance and ‘S’ for Socio-economic characteristics.
25 IA-M8.7-Shillong.pdf 13
Annexure 1: Background Paper
Figure 2: HIGS Framework
To assess the vulnerability profile of the Indian cities, four sets of variables have been identified that describe the characteristics of the city, for example:
1. Exposure to geophysical variables; past history of hazards, their frequency of occurrence and magnitude of impact (on socio-economic fabric, infrastructure and human life). 2. Urban Infrastructure; Water supply, waste management power and transport infrastructure, status of the infrastructure, maintenance, coverage and access, extent of use of Information and Communication Technology and Green solutions for devising Smart & Sustainable infrastructure 3. Population and urbanization trends; and societal character marked by awareness, better health reduction of poverty, illiteracy and mal nutrition, slum population, population below poverty line, access to basic services by urban poor. 4. Governance: the institutional framework of the city management and urban administration and public health, response, recovery system and evaluation of city management in the context of disaster proneness, financial status/independence of the city ULB, and efficiency in delivering the basic services. Smart initiatives like: E-Governance, ICT),
This framework will be used to understand the current scenario of selected cities and urban settlements that features many of the impacts of natural disasters, such as earthquakes, landslides, flash floods, cold waves; variation in temperatures and precipitation, etc.
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Annexure 1: Background Paper
Literature Review of Project Cities Studying available literature on urbanization and disasters in Shillong and Gangtok, and analysis of hazard vulnerability in two cities
Rapid Vulnerability Assessment (RVA) Assessing hazard vulnerability of cities using Smart HIGS framework developed by IRADe - HIGS “Hazards, Infrastructure, Governance and Socio Economic Conditions”
Land use/ Land cover mapping using high resolution Remote Sensing data Assessment of land use and natural resource changes over the years – mapping of waterbodies, wetlands, etc.
Hazard Risk Mapping & Vulnerable Zones Identification Cadastral maps on scale of 1:4,000 for different Hazard mapping and vulnerable zone identification using land use maps
Data Collection based on notified Development Planning Area A. Data Collection from ULBs & parastatal agencies about infrastructure status, master plans , CDPs & other developmental plans B. Intense field visits to conduct perception surveys/ interviews with vulnerable groups, expert & stakeholders consultation
Vulnerable Zones Mapping Considering Socio-economic parameters Mapping of existing land use plan, population density distribution, slum pockets, buffer areas for rivers, ecosystems and critical infrastructure.
Drafting Action Plan for developing disaster resilience of the identified cities
Capacity Building Workshops City level workshops for capacity building for concerned Stakeholders
Result Dissemination and Policy Recommendation Through blogs, journals, newlestters, website, etc.
Figure 3: Project Approach
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Annexure 1: Background Paper
2.3 Land Use and Land Cover Mapping, Hazard Risk Mapping & Vulnerable Zone Identification
The step will be crucial as hazard/ risk maps will be prepared at the scale of 1: 4000 and the steps to be followed are:
Collection of administrative boundaries such as city extent, Municipal limit, Municipal ward boundaries from Master plans, City development plans and bringing them under GIS platform: Data on urban infrastructure, land use, roads and transport infrastructures, basin and channel, drainage systems, settlement pattern, natural resources such as water bodies and wetlands shall be collected, organized and analyzed to evaluate capacity and assess vulnerability. Acquisition of suitable very high resolution satellite data (Cartosat-2/IKONOS/Worldview- 2) in order to generate 1:4000 level urban maps: Cartosat-2 data shall be acquired from NRSC/NESAC/ISRO and processed in ArcGIS 10.1 software
Downloading of Cartosat-2/IKONOS/Worldview data in ArcMap
Enhancement of data for Visual Interpretation
Visual interpretation/manual digitization of land use/land cover of selected cities at 1:4000 scale using CARTOSAT-2/IKONOS/Worldview images
Verification of mapped categories through field surveys
Database creation of land use/land cover maps in ArcGIS format
Figure 4: Framework for developing 1:4000 scale Vulnerability Maps
In addition, as per the requirement and non-availability of Cartosat-2 data, IKONOS/Worldview data shall be procured from international space agencies. Appropriate enhancement techniques shall be used to amplify the interpretation of various land use/land cover categories on the images. Visual interpretation/manual digitization of land use/land cover categories shall be carried out at 1:4000 scale. This step is depicted in detail in Fig 2. 2.4 Data collection related to urban parameters and environment & Analysis
City specific data related to infrastructure status, development plans (CDPs, Master Plans etc) would be collected by means of stakeholder consultations including city ULBs and parastatal agencies. Personal interviews covering households, administrators, professionals, slum dwellers, etc. shall be conducted in
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Annexure 1: Background Paper selected locations of the cities to identify and assess the different vulnerabilities of various social groups to disastrous events. Census and other data sources shall also be used to assess the social vulnerability of different sectors. All the collected data shall be imported in GIS format for an integrated assessment and analysis. Vulnerabilities of different wards or localities, groups of people, industries, commerce, and city infrastructure will be assessed to identify actions to reduce vulnerability and make cities resilient to disasters. Locations like schools, hospitals, slums, etc. are vulnerable hot-spots and to study the problem faced by them in the city due to disasters, the causes and impact of disasters will be evaluated and suitable adaptation strategies specific to the given vulnerable sectors or groups for Disaster Risk Reduction will be identified to understand the socio-economic aspect of the devastating disasterous events in selected cities and vulnerable zones, intensive field survey will be conducted with a variety of questions to identify the key vulnerable locations in, Shillong and Gangtok,.
In addition, the historical weather data will be compiled, along with data on abnormal natural events to evaluate vulnerable profile of the region. Data on rainfall (Intensity, amount, duration, distribution) and temperature will be collected from IMD. The land use map of the city shall be overlaid with road and transportation layers, population density maps, buffer areas of rivers/water bodies to generate information about the infrastructural vulnerability of the city.
2.5 Mapping Hazard Risk and vulnerable zones of the city
For acquiring information about topography, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) shall be used. DEMs will fetch information on low lying contour locations and terrain of the city through GIS software. The Digital elevation model (DEM) will be obtained from Cartosat-1: DEM - Version-2R1 with resolution 1 arc Sec (~ 32 m) 2005-14 available data from NRSC data center (NDC). It fetches information on low lying contour locations and terrain of the city on Arc GIS. In addition, as per the requirement ASTER (Advanced Spacebourne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer)/SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission)/TanDEMX data may also be employed for the purpose.
The vulnerable zones will be mapped for each hazard occurring in the city viz. earthquake, flash flood, cold waves, and landslide as per existing master plan of the city. In this context, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing tools will be used to collect, organize, analyze and present data.
Composite Hazard and vulnerability map will be developed for the city indicating High, Medium and Low risk hazards for the city. This will also analyze the changes in city vulnerability as assessed by the project in initial stages and decision-making tool to assist the city for better disaster management.
2.6 Action plan for Developing Disaster Resilience of 2 identified cities
Based on the vulnerable zone mapping of the two cities, actions will be prioritized for disaster risk reduction. The action plans will suggest hazard/disaster wise (floods, landslides etc.) measures for mainstreaming disaster risk resilience for the identified cities which can be integrated with the master plans and proposed smart city plans of the identified cities. Such disaster resilience plans would be developed in consultation with the local communities. Emphasis will be made to involve women and other relatively more vulnerable sections of the society. Standard Operating Procedures for Disaster Preparedness will be 17
Annexure 1: Background Paper provided in detail. Framework for disaster preparedness for the cities by means of real time hazard monitoring and early warning system for each disaster will be designed. Action plan will particularly focus on vulnerable communities and suggest cost effective and practical options for enhancing the resilience. The action plans would be translated in the local languages for ease of understanding and wider outreach for the citizens. Prioritization of the DRR measures will be done through consultations involving local communities through the project partners. Community representatives will be also mobilized through the support of Municipal Corporation and Non-Government Organizations in the project areas. 2.7 Capacity Building Workshops
Workshops will be organized in each city for building the capacity of the concerned stakeholders (including women) on disaster risk resilience and importance of building resilient cities. The workshops will also serve as a platform for dissemination of results and study findings. Thorough discussion will be conducted on the feasibility of the so prepared city disaster resilience plan and inputs of the stakeholders will be considered for further improvement of the same.
2.8 Result Dissemination and Policy Recommendations
Final reports, results and study findings will be shared with a wider audience including the concerned stakeholders by means of research articles, blogs and newsletters. The same will be updated on the website dedicated for the study.
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Annexure 1: Background Paper
Chapter 3
3. Study Area
3.1 Shillong city
Shillong, capital city of Meghalaya is located on the deeply dissected central upland zone of the Meghalaya Plateau. Shillong is also the most urbanized and largest city in the hill state of Meghalaya. The population of the city is 143,229 (Census,11)26. The population growth rate over the last decade has been 7.79% (2001 Population – 132,867). The city has witnessed unprecedented population growth in recent years largely due to a high fertility rate coupled with heightened migration from neighboring states of India, as well as from across the border.
Shillong Urban Agglomeration, covers an area of 70.4 square kilometer. It includes Shillong Municipality, the Cantonment, and the townships of Mawlai, Nongthymmai Madanrting Pynthorumkhrah, Nongmynsong (Fig 3)27.
Figure 5: Shillong Urban Agglomeration (Source: CDP, Shillong)
Shillong is landlocked and situated at an altitude of 4,908ft above mean sea level. It lies in the center of the Shillong Plateau surrounded by hills. Shillong has a pleasant climate and is famous for its scenic beauty; is a major tourist attraction and also the hub of education for the entire Northeast with many well-established institutions. The humid sub-tropical climate of Shillong is characterized by moderately warm wet summers and cool dry winters. The average maximum and minimum temperature is around 20° C and 12° C respectively. Shillong experiences a prolonged rainy season with intermittent rain throughout the year.
26 http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/1706_PART_B_DCHB_EAST%20KHASI%20HILLS.pdf 27 Tariang, D. (2012) Assessment of the water quality of Umkhrah river Physico chemical and biological investigation. PhD Thesis downloaded from http://hdl.handle.net/10603/5332. 19
Annexure 1: Background Paper
Two-thirds of the rainfall occurs in the months from June to September, from the South West monsoons. The relative humidity is highest during rainy season (above 80%).
Table 2: Characteristics of Shillong City
Indicators Characteristics Classification of the city Hilly city Location 25°34'00”N & 91°53'00”E Area 10.36 sq km Climate Type Subtropical highland climate Temperature28 Average high temperature - 20° C Average low temperature - 12°C Rainfall Average annual : 2,162 mm Mean Sea Level 4,908ft above MSL
The land resources of the city can be classified into five broad categories of developed, underdeveloped, developable, urban agriculture and forests and water bodies. With the rapid growth of urbanization, citizens now face shortage of water in the city. Water scarcity in Shillong is more of a problem of water quality, than quantity. Since the city has 30 river bodies, the problem of water shortage should not arise. However, according to a CAG (Comptroller and Auditor General) report29 28 out of the 30 water bodies contain water which is unfit for drinking. Besides, over the years a declining trend in the rainfall is discernible, and if this trend continues the city will face serious water shortages in the near future. Hence, there is an urgent need to get this issue examined to highlight the environmental and ecological factors responsible for this trend. 3.1.1 Vulnerability Profile of Shillong to natural hazards
Shillong city is prone to the consequences of climate change because of its geo-ecological fragility, the eastern Himalayan landscape, its trans-boundary river basins and its inherent socio-economic instabilities. Shillong city is vulnerable to both natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, heavy rainfall, floods etc. and man -made disasters such as road accidents, fires, water scarcity due to rapid growth of urbanization and improper and uncontrolled construction. Table 3 shows the history of disasters of Shillong city30:
Table 3: History of Disasters in Shillong City
Impact on Type of Hazards Year of Occurrence Area Population Life Livelihood Livestock 1897,1897, 1923. 1930, 1932, 1945, Earthquake Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 1950, 1951
28 IMD, 2010 29 http://www.cag.gov.in/sites/default/files/audit_report_files/Chapter_1_Social_Sector_1.pdf 30 Sustainable and Disaster Resilient Urban Development; City Report- Shillong; 2015 20
Annexure 1: Background Paper
Impact on Type of Hazards Year of Occurrence Area Population Life Livelihood Livestock Extreme winds/ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, Thunderstorms/ 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, Yes Yes - Yes yes cyclones 2013 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, Flash Flood 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, Yes Yes Yes Yes yes 2013 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, Landslide, etc. 2005,2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, Yes Yes Yes Yes yes 2012, 2013 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, Incessant 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, Yes Yes Yes Yes yes Rainfall 2013 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, Fire 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, - Yes Yes Yes Yes 2012, 2013 Source: Sustainable and Disaster Resilient Urban Development; City Report- Shillong; 2015
In Shillong, the slopes are steep, and being a part of young mountains, are highly vulnerable to landslides. In addition, heavy rainfall makes the land more unstable and causes massive flow of debris in every monsoon. Deforestation in the steep slopes due to human settlements and other activities results in the removal of vegetation cover and exposes rocks, resulting in the weathering processes. These processes all together trigger landslides. This causes severe disturbance to road transportation and communications, which have major bearing on availability of essential commodities and their prices and also on national security. Table 4: Hazard exposure of Shillong city
Sl. Hazard Type Exposure No
1 Heavy Rains Y 2 Drought Y 3 Cyclones N 4 Landslides/avalanches Y 5 Floods Y 6 Thunderstorm/ Y Lightning Temperature and precipitation: The city is highly vulnerable to the climatic environmental hazards, being a part of the mountain ecosystems, where extreme slopes lead to rapid changes in climatic zones over small distances. These factors have impacts in terms of biodiversity, water availability, agriculture, and therefore on general human well-being (Sharma, et al 2009). The city has experienced rapid rise in temperature over the last 50 years. The western parts of the state are projected to experience a higher increase in temperature relative to eastern part (Ravindranath et al., 2010, Meghalaya State Action Plan on Climate Change, 2015). However, the
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Annexure 1: Background Paper variability in the increase in temperature is not high, with the highest increase being 1.8°C and average increase in range of 1.6°C. For East Khasi hills district (Shillong) the temperature increase is expected to be 1.6-1.7°C by 2050 (Meghalaya State Action Plan on Climate Change, 2015). Shillong is home to rain bearing clouds and is near one of the wettest places on earth - Cherrapunji. The Monsoon season in Shillong starts in June and ends around August, and is accompanied by heavy rains and strong winds. Hailstorms, thunderstorms and squalls commonly occur in the city and its citizens normally face problems during the rainy season. While rains are a relief to the water starved city, it is also a disadvantage as weeks of thunder showers not only worsen the already dilapidated pavements but makes walking through them almost impossible. Moreover, the number of flooded streets has been rising during the monsoon season in the city. Improper and uncontrolled construction is considered to be the prime reason for the menace and preventive measures should be initiated before things get out of control (The Shillong Times, May 28th, 2012). Meghalaya is projected to receive an increase in precipitation in all the districts. The western districts of Meghalaya are predicted to obtain a smaller increase in rainfall, compared to the eastern districts which are predicted to obtain a higher increase in rainfall. There is high variability of projected rainfall, where eastern districts such as East and West Garo Hills are projected to obtain an increase in rainfall of only about 3%, East Khasi hills district is expected to experience an increase of 10-15% in precipitation by 2050. Flash Floods:
Polo and Pynthorbah areas in the city are prone to Urban flooding is caused due to lack of drainage flooding in monsoon, as they are low-lying areas and in an urban area. High intensity rainfall can cause the Wah Umkhrah River, which flows through these flooding when the city sewage system and draining areas, overflows its banks with almost every heavy canals do not have the necessary capacity to drain downpour. Incessant rain over 24 hours had caused away the amounts of rain that are falling. Water flooding and landslides in different parts of the State may even enter the sewage system in one place and capital and its surrounding areas, disrupting normal life then get deposited somewhere else in the city on in 201531. Nearly, nine families were evacuated from the streets. Pynthorbah after flash flood caused havoc in the area Flooding in urban areas is caused by intense and/or due to continuous rain. prolonged rainfall, which overwhelms the capacity of the drainage system and it accounted by the The number of flooded streets has been rising over the number of water loggings recorded. years during the monsoon season in some patches of the city due to improper and uncontrolled construction and currently almost 25% of waster logging incidence has been recorded in the city. Water Scarcity: With the rapid growth of urbanization, citizens now face shortage of water in the city. Water scarcity in Shillong is more of a problem of water quality, than quantity. Since the city has 30 river bodies, the problem of water shortage should not arise. However, according to a CAG report 28 out of the 30 water bodies contain water unfit for drinking. Besides, over the years a declining trend in the rainfall is discernible, and if this trend continues the city will face serious water shortages in the near future. Hence, there is an urgent
31 http://www.assamtribune.com/scripts/detailsnew.asp?id=aug1915/oth050 22
Annexure 1: Background Paper need to get this issue examined to highlight the environmental and ecological factors responsible for this trend (CDP- Greater Shillong Planning Area, 2007). Areas like Motinagar, Jingkieng and Risa Colony are dependent on natural spring water and forest water rather than the PHE water supply. Absence of precipitation affects these areas resulted in scarcity of water.32 In 2014, April long spell of dry season in the State has resulted in a water scarcity in the capital city with various localities facing a sudden drop in water supply.33
Earthquakes
The seven northeastern states – Assam, Meghalaya, Earthquake is a sudden movement of the Earth's Mizoram, Tripura, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh and lithosphere (its crust and upper mantle). Manipur – are considered by seismologists as the sixth Earthquakes are caused by the release of built- major earthquake-prone belt in the world. The region up stress within rocks along geologic faults or by experienced an earthquake measuring 8.7 on the Richter the movement of magma in volcanic areas. They scale in 1897. Over 1,600 people had died in that quake34. are usually followed by aftershocks.
Shillong City is highly vulnerable to earthquakes as it falls under the high risk seismic Zone V, and it at a risk of experiencing earthquakes at any time of the year. Though the earthquake risk is very high, most of the houses in Shillong have not incorporated building bye-laws, and do not have adequate structural strength to withstand even a moderate earthquake. The most vulnerable structures are the stone or brick masonry houses Landslides and Deforestation
Landslides are caused by poor ground conditions, Deforestation is the removal of a forest or stand geomorphic phenomena, and natural physical forces and of trees where the land is thereafter converted to quite often due to heavy spells of rainfall coupled with a non-forest use. Deforested regions typically impeded drainage (CDP- Greater Shillong Planning Area, incur significant adverse soil erosion and 2007). In Shillong, the slopes are steep, and being a part frequently degrade into wasteland. of young mountains are highly vulnerable to landslides. According to the UNFCCC secretariat, the In addition, heavy rainfall makes the land more unstable overwhelming direct cause of deforestation is and causes massive flow of debris every monsoon. agriculture. Subsistence farming is responsible Deforestation in the steep slopes due to human for 48% of deforestation; commercial settlements and other activities results in the removal of agriculture is responsible for 32%; logging is vegetation cover and exposes rocks, resulting in the responsible for 14%, and fuel wood removals weathering processes. These processes all together make up 5%. trigger landslides. This causes severe disturbance to road transportation and communications, which have major bearing on availability of essential commodities and their prices and also on national security (Singh, 2006). Lightning / Thunderstorm / Hail storms
32 http://www.meghalayatimes.info/index.php/front-page/25068-shillong-suffers-acute-water-shortage-prays-for- rain-god-s-blessing 33 http://www.theshillongtimes.com/2014/04/21/water-scarcity-hits-city-residents/ 34 http://www.meghalayatimes.info/index.php/10-front-page/front-page/18383-5-2-intensity-earthquake-rocks- shillong 23
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Wind and cyclone hazard map of India puts Shillong city under very high damage zone, with wind speed ranging Thunderstorms, or thundershower, is a storm from 44 – 47 m/s. Low pressures areas are formed in the characterized by the presence of lightning and its Bay Bengal, each year, leading to the development of acoustic effect on the Earth's atmosphere, known as thunder. They are usually accompanied by thunderstorms during the months of April-May and strong winds, heavy rain, and sometimes snow, October-November. In April, 2016, seasonal pre- sleet, hail, or, in contrast, no precipitation at all. monsoon squall lashed through the Khasi hills, leaving a trail of destruction. The storm ravaged some areas of the Thunderstorms can form and develop in any state capital, leaving many houses roofless and geographic location but most frequently within drastically affecting power supply35. the mid-latitude, where warm, moist air from tropical latitudes collides with cooler air from Shillong is usually affected by high winds of about 180- polar latitudes 198km/hour leading to the risk of damaging houses and infrastructure. These high winds are usually accompanied by thunderstorm and hailstorms leading to trees and electric poles falling, damaging telephone cables, street lights. Many a times the falling of big trees on human habitations has caused the loss of lives.
Table 5: Hazard Timeline36 of Shillong City
Hazards Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Flash Floods
Extreme winds
Landslide
Earthquakes
Thunderstorm/Lightning/Hailstorms
35 https://www.telegraphindia.com/1160406/jsp/northeast/story_78548.jsp 36 Shillong City Disaster Management Plan 2014 24
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Table 6: Vulnerability profile of Shillong city Description SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERICTICS Population 2001 Population – 132,867, 2011 Population – 143,229. Growth Rate – 7.79% The population of Shillong forms 68% of the total urban population of the state (CDP). Density ~ 13,825 per sq km in 2011 Slum Population 12 slum pockets, covering 10% of the city population HAZARD AND EXTREME EVENTS Temperature observed Average maximum temperature- 20° C & Average minimum temperature-12° C Temperature Projections Temperature increase is expected to be 1.6-1.7°C by 2050 (Meghalaya State Action Plan on Climate Change, 2015) Rainfall observed trend The average annual rainfall of Shillong is 2,162 mm Hailstorm, Thunderstorm and Squall are the common form of rainfall in Shillong. Rainfall projections East Khasi hills district is expected to experience an increase of 10-15% in precipitation by 2050. (Meghalaya State Action Plan on Climate Change, 2015) Extreme events : Urban Incidences of water logging in the city is 25%, with the numbers increasing during monsoons Floods/ Flash Floods August 2014, Incessant rain over 24 hrs caused flash flood in the city 22 people killed in 2012, triggered a series of landslides and washed away nearly 30km of highway in north Sikkim amid torrential rain Landslides In 2014, torrential rain triggered landslide killed almost 8 people in Mawbah area of Shillong37 In 2015, 12 people were killed in the landslides in Meghalaya38 Water Scarcity With the rapid growth of urbanization, citizens face the shortage of water in the city. Water scarcity in Shillong is related with problem of water quality as well as water quantity. Over the years a declining trend in the rainfall has also been discernible Earthquakes City falls under the high risk seismic Zone V Earthquake measuring 5.2 on the Richter scale rocked the entire northeast India, including Shillong and adjoining Bangladesh on March, 200239 another earthquake was recorded in April, 2016 INFRASTRUCTURE STATUS40 Water Supply The main source of water supply for Greater Shillong is River Umium. In 2016-17, almost 77% of the house-holds (HHs) have water supply connection The per capita water supply is low at 78lpcd
37 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Eight-killed-in-Shillong-landslide-flood-toll- 34/articleshow/43322889.cms 38 http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/five-people-killed-in-maghalaya-landslides-772087 39 http://www.meghalayatimes.info/index.php/10-front-page/front-page/18383-5-2-intensity-earthquake-rocks- shillong 40 SLIPS, AMRUT, NIUA, 2016-17 25
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The water connections are not metered and only 12% of the water services cost is recovered. Sewerage Almost 94% of the HHs in the city have individual & community toilet coverage 0.57% HHs have no facilities, hence resort to open defecation Provision of sanitary toilet facilities for this 5.82% households is being taken up under the "Swachh Bharat" mission No sewage treatment plant, all the house sullage (kitchen and bath room waste water) drains either into the River Umshyrpi in the south or in the Um Khrah in the north. Solid Waste Management 159 MT of municipal solid waste is produced per day, 0.4 kg of waste per capita per day. The major solid waste generation sources are households(56%), markets(23%), hotels & restaurants(7%), construction waste(2%), and street sweeping(7%)41 In the SMB area 46% of the waste generated is collected while outside the SMB area the figure is only 32% and for the entire GSPA (Greater Shillong Planning Area) the percentage of garbage collected works out to about 41%. Presently garbage collected is disposed into the gorges of the trenching ground situated at MAWLAI on Shillong Guwahati Road.42 Storm Water Drainage The drains run for 148.91 km across city and drains into the Umkhrah and Umshyrpi river At present (2016-17) Storm water drainage network coverage is less than 75% of the city, incidence of sewerage mixing in drains is almost 100% Transportation Total road length of Shillong is 356 km with a road density of 2.05 km/sq km43. NMT has not being stressed upon in the city Comprehensive Mobility Plan (CMP) due to undulating topography & operational constrains Power The average electricity consumption in residential area is 300 units /house/day and in commercial area is 450 units /shop/day The agencies responsible for the supply, management and distribution of the electricity in the city are: (1) North Eastern Regional Electricity Board, Shillong; (2) Meghalaya State Electricity Board, Shillong and (3) Neepco Housing Out of total households in Shillong city, about 46 % of the houses are made of Concrete, followed by, Wood and Burnt Bricks. Out of the 65 Slums in Shillong UA except two slums, rest of them are in private land.44 There is a total 3567 housing units requirements for slums and urban poor in the city45 .
41 http://www.int-arch-photogramm-remote-sens-spatial-inf-sci.net/XL-7-W3/657/2015/isprsarchives-XL-7-W3- 657-2015.pdf 42 Shillong Municipal Board. http://smb.gov.in/projects.html 43 City Development Plan, Shillong 44 http://mhupa.gov.in/writereaddata/csmc015-MeghalayaPPT.pdf 45 HFA Demand Survey-2016, Census-2011, RAY-2015 & SECC Data 26
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GOVERNANCE Administrative Units Shillong Municipal board is responsible for service delivery, this includes water supply, solid address assigned to address climate waste management etc East Khasi hills District Commissioner office is quite active in the area of Disaster Risk Reduction and change disaster management planning Meghalaya Basin Development Authority, Meghalaya Disaster Management Authority and state government are important stakeholders, Willingness of the city to The Forest and Environment Department, Government of Meghalaya along with the Meghalaya Basin address Climate Change Development Authority with Technical Support from GIZ organized the ‘Expert Consultation Prioritizing Actions under Meghalaya’s State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC)’ in May, 201346 and Meghalaya State Action Plan on Climate Change was developed in 201547 Local government including Shillong Municipal Board (SMB) and district unit is implementing Urban Risk Reduction(URR) and DRR programme with support from UNDP. This also involves integration of risk reduction into urban development programme while assessing risk and vulnerabilities and strengthening Building codes, Bye laws and development control regulations (DCR). ULB and UNDP are also working on developing ward-level risk –assessment, including understanding of the existing early warning systems, identifying formal & informal mitigation actions and recommendations.
3.2 Gangtok city
Gangtok is a municipal corporation, the capital and the largest town of the Indian state of Sikkim and also the headquarters of the East Sikkim district. Gangtok is located in the eastern Himalayan range, at an elevation of 1,650 m (5,410 ft) and located at 27°20′N & 88°37′E / 27.33°N & 88.62°E. The city is flanked on east and west by two streams, namely Roro Chu and Ranikhola, respectively. These two rivers divide the natural drainage into two parts, the eastern and western parts. Both the streams meet the Ranipool and flow south as the main Ranikhola before it joins the Teesta at Singtam. Most of the roads are steep, with the buildings built on compacted ground alongside them. The existence of steep slopes, vulnerability to landslides, large forest cover and inadequate access to most areas has been a major impediment to the natural and balanced growth of the city. The Gangtok Municipal Area was notified in the year 2010, comprising of 17 municipal wards and has an area around 19.2 sq km. The total population of the city is 100,286 (Census 2011), hence the population density of the city being 5223 persons per sq. km.
46 http://www.meghalayatimes.info/index.php/front-page/29881-climate-adaptation-workshop-held-in-city 47 http://www.moef.nic.in/sites/default/files/sapcc/Meghalaya.pdf 27
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Figure 6: Gangtok City (Source: Gangtok Municipal Corporation)
Table 7: Characteristics of Gangtok City Indicators Characteristics Classification of the Hilly city Location 27°20′N 88°37′E Area 19.016 sq.km Climate Type Subtropical highland climate
Temperature Average Summer High: 25OC Average Winter Low : 3OC Rainfall Average annual : 3494 mm Mean Sea Level 1,676 m above MSL
The climate in the city is monsoon-influenced subtropical highland climate or the Himalayan type of climate. The average maximum during summers is around 22oC, with maximum temperatures rarely crossing 25°C and minimum temperatures during the winters being recorded at 3oC. Rainfall starts from pre-monsoon in May, and peaks during the monsoon, with July recording the highest monthly average of 649.6 mm. The region receives an annual rainfall of 3494 mm over 164 rainy days. The lower Himalayas in general are composed of labile rock formations and therefore prone to landslides even in dry seasons. These landslides can result in the capital being cut off from other parts of Sikkim and the mainland India. Gangtok is an elongated hill, wider towards north-east, having highest counter value of 2480m, while narrowing towards southwest corner, with lowest counter value of 826m. The area is having gentle slope from north-east towards south-west while very steep inhabitable slope from central part towards east bordered by Bushuk Khola, towards north-east by Tashi view point and Bushuk reserve forest. The north- 28
Annexure 1: Background Paper west, west and south west portion are having moderate slope which comprise major habitable area, bordered by Rongay Khola tributary of Rani Khola from north to central part and Rani Khola from central west to south till it joins Bushuk Khola. Unplanned urbanization and rapid construction in hill slopes has aggravated and increased the risk of environmental degradation in Gangtok. Urban sprawl, urban expansion, tourism activities lead to rapid destruction of green infrastructure. Gangtok has witnessed a stiff change in land use pattern due to rapid urbanization which has increased to four times over a span of almost 30 years i.e. 2.94181 sq. km to 12.8144 sq. Km from 1978 to 201448. Gangtok like other NE cities is prone to multi hazards like earthquake, floods and landslides. The average mean temperature in Gangtok has increased consistently over last three decades due to increased construction and lessening ground absorption, greater emission as a result of increasing vehicles etc. This mean there is an increase in temperature in winter season in the region which can lead to greater rate of glacier melting at the high altitude and increased riverine flows and floods in the lower catchment area.
Source: Chhetri and Lama (2014)
Figure 7: Land-use change of Gangtok (1976- 2014)
Due to increase in carpeted area the green patches and vegetation and agricultural lands have decreased by great level. It brings numerous environmental problems and hazards. Due to loss of green vegetation on one hand and increase of carpeted area (settlement) on other, the surface runoff has increased to a great level which led to flash flood like situation along the roadways and the same is the factor of mud flow and landslides even during moderate down pouring of rainfall. Increasing human habitation has also created solid waste, which is unmanageable especially in those area where human transportation of waste is required, as a result waste are thrown here and there along jhoras which choked the jhoras leading to catastrophe during rainfall.
48 Chhetri, A. and Lama, S. (2014) Trends of urbanization and its impacts on environmental resources: a case study of Gangtok town of Sikkim Himalayas. Geo-Analyst. Downloaded from http://gswb.in/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/SINOR-LAMA.1.pdf. 29
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The landslides in last two decades in Gangtok have occurred mostly due to increase in soil instability due to widespread construction, unplanned development, etc. Earthquakes are also common in Gangtok, for example, on September 18, 2011 an earthquake of the magnitude of 6.8 on Richter scale struck Sikkim claiming 63 human lives and heavy social infrastructure loss. Figure 6 show the incidents of landslides which have occurred till 2005 in Gangtok.
Source: Acharya et al., 2012
Figure 8: Incidents of Landslides in Gangtok (1990- 2005)
The key factors that are responsible for increasing vulnerability of the region are unplanned high density development, increase in traffic volume, violation of building codes, changing pattern of temperature, rainfall, as well as poor urban environmental management (Acharya. et al, 2012). 3.2.1 Vulnerability Profile of Gangtok to Natural Hazards
Sikkim is among the India’s most vulnerable regions to both natural and human-made disasters since it is situated in the very high zone with regards to earthquake and high zone with regards to landslides49. Most of Sikkim, including Gangtok, is underlain by Precambrian rock which contains foliated phyllites and schists; slopes are therefore prone to frequent landslides. Surface runoff of water by natural streams (jhora) and man-made drains has contributed to the risk of landslides. The town falls under seismic zone-IV. Table 8 highlights the hazard exposure of Gangtok. Table 8: Hazard exposure of Gangtok
Sl. No Hazard Type Exposure
1 Flash Flood Y 2 Drought/ Heat N Waters 3 Earthquakes Y 4 Landslides Y 5 Forest Fires Y
49 Multi –hazard risk vulnerability assessment, Gangtok, East Sikkim (2012). Downloaded from http://www.ssdma.nic.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=10201. 30
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Temperature and precipitation: Because of its elevation and sheltered environment, Gangtok enjoys a mild, temperate climate all year round. Temperatures range from an average maximum of 22 °C (72 °F) in summer to an average minimum of 4 °C (39 °F) in winter. Summers (lasting from late April to June) are mild, with maximum temperatures rarely crossing 25 °C (77 °F). The monsoon season from June to September is characterized by intense torrential rains often causing landslides that block Gangtok's land access to the rest of the country. The region receives an annual rainfall of 3494 mm over 164 rainy days. Snowfall is rare, and in recent times Gangtok has received snow only in 1990, 2004, 2005 and January 2011. Temperatures below freezing are also rare50.
Landslides:
Nearly 7.51% of the area of the Gangtok city falls in Landslides are mass movement of rock, soil, or debris very high risk zone with 1.84% of the total material forming a slope (natural or engineered) settlement affected by landslides while 24.64% of towards the lower and external part of the slope, along the area falls under very medium high risk zone with a defined sliding surface. 18.18% of the total settlement being affected51. Only Mass movement occurs under the effect of gravity and 1.13% of the area lies in very low risk zone with mass transport material is transported by an agent (e.g. 1.12% of the total settlement being at low risk. In water flowing in a river, wind) the period between 1957 – 2005, the east district of Sikkim had experienced over 153 landslide occurrences (5 very severe, 9 severe & 3 moderate) Intense torrential rains often cause landslides that usually block Gangtok's land access to the rest of the country. In January 2016, days after being affected by a 6.7 Magnitude earthquake, a landslide52 hit the Sikkim-Bengal border, resulting in the death of an unspecified number of people. Large chunk of 150 mts. rock broke off a hillock and crashed down on a stretch of the national highway connecting Sikkim and West Bengal. Landslides near Rambhi, in the outskirts of Siliguri on way to the hills have disrupted the road traffic between Gangtok and the North Bengal hub in 201553. Border Road Organisation (BRO) reported that the rain-triggered landslides at Swati Jhora spot near the hill village blocked the arterial NH 10 on June 25. Earthquakes: Sikkim placed in Zone IV/V of the earthquake zonation map of India is subject to high magnitude earthquake tremors. Most of the loss of life in past earthquakes has occurred due to the collapse of buildings, constructed in traditional materials like stone, brick, adobe and wood, which were not particularly engineered to be earthquake resistant. The area’s most likely to be affected by Earthquake were areas in and around below Arithang, below Paljor stadium and area around Amdo golai, Burtuk etc. it is assessed that 29% of the area in the city falls in very high risk zone with 18.84% of the total settlement affected, 31.48% of the area falls in very medium risk
50 Gangtok City Development Plan, 2008 51 Multi –hazard risk vulnerability assessment, Gangtok, East Sikkim (2012). Downloaded from http://www.ssdma.nic.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=10201. 52 https://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/massive-landslide-strikes-sikkim-bengal-border-many-feared-dead/ 53 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Landslide-snaps-Siliguri-Gangtok-road-vehicles-stranded/articleshow/47843975.cms 31
Annexure 1: Background Paper zone with 42.14% of the total settlement being affected and 8.71% of the area is in very low risk zone with 3.18% of the total settlement can be affected54. Forest Fires:
During summer, when there is no rain for months, Forest Fires, large parts of India’s deciduous and the forests become littered with dry senescent leaves semi-deciduous forests are characterized by forest and twinges, which could burst into flames ignited fires. This is mainly because during the dry season, by the slightest spark. The Himalayan forests have the forests shed their leaves and allow the been burning regularly during the last few summers, development of fuel at the surface of forests. These with colossal loss of vegetation cover of that region. fuels, together with the grass layer, allow the development of low- and medium-intensity surface In the multi-hazard risk vulnerability assessment of fires almost every year. Many open forests are even the city, its 5.75% of the area falls in very high risk affected by fire twice or three times per year. zone with 1.97% of the total settlement is affected, 36.80% of the area falls in very medium risk zone with 51.09% of the total settlement affected and 13.45% of the area fall in very low risk zone with 1.13% of the total settlement being affected. Flash flood: In the city 6.68% of the area falls in very high risk zone with 0.66% of the total settlement to be affected, 93.32% of the area is under very low risk zone with 99.93% of the total settlement being affected. Flash flood killed 22 people in 2012, triggering a series of landslides and washed away nearly 30km of highway in north Sikkim55. Dozens of people on the North Sikkim Highway between Mangan and Chungthang inhabitants of these areas are reportedly missing. Two major bridges on the stretch were also destroyed, severing the sole link between Gangtok and tourist hotspots of Lachen, Lachung and Yumthang56.
A time-line of occurrence of different natural disasters is presented in Table 8. Table 9: Disaster Timeline of Gangtok
Index Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Landslides Flash Flood Hailstorm/thundering Forest Fire Earthquake
Table 10 summarizes the vulnerability profile of Gangtok city.
54 Multi –hazard risk vulnerability assessment, Gangtok, East Sikkim (2012). Downloaded from http://www.ssdma.nic.in/CMS/GetPdf?MenuContentID=10201. 55 Kundul, A. (2012) Flash flood kills 22 in Sikkim. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Flash-flood-kills-22-in- Sikkim/articleshow/16509127.cms. Page accessed on 09/06/2017. 56 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Flash-flood-kills-22-in-Sikkim/articleshow/16509127.cms 32
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Table 10: Vulnerability profile of Gangtok city
Description SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS Population 100,286 (as per 2011 Census) Density 5,223 persons per sq.km Slum Population 20,504 ( 6,085 HHs) Notified & Non-notified slums57 HAZARD AND EXTREME EVENTS Temperature observed and Due to its elevation and sheltered environment, Gangtok enjoys a mild, temperate projection climate all year round Maximum & Minimum Temperature (2016) – 27oC & 19oC respectively Temperature Projections By 2030s, the average annual temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 to 2.1°C with re-spect to 1970s (State Action Plan on Climate Change for Sikkim, 2011). Rainfall observed trend and Rainfall starts to rise from pre-monsoon in May, and peaks during the monsoon, with projections July recording the highest monthly average of 649.6 mm (25.6 in) Snowfall recorded in year 1990, 2004, 2005, & 2011
Rainfall Projections Sikkim is expected to experience a decrease in precipitation of about 3% in 2030 with respect to 1970 (INCCA, 2010; State Action Plan on Climate Change for Sikkim, 2011). Extreme events : Landslides In 2016 landslide hit Sikkim-Bengal border, resulting in the death of an unspecified number of people In 2015, Landslides near Rambhi, in the outskirts of Siliguri on way to the hills have disrupted the road traffic between Gangtok and the North Bengal hub. Earthquakes Sikkim placed in Zone IV/V of the earthquake Earthquake affected area are in and around below Arithang, below Paljor stadium and area around Amdo golai, Burtuk etc 6.9-magnitude earthquake hit Sikkim September 2011 that killed 70 people and destroying the villages. Its epicentre was located at Chungthang. Urban Floods/ Flash Floods Flash flood killed 22 people in 2012, triggered a series of landslides and washed away nearly 30km of highway in north Sikkim amid torrential rain Friday evening. INFRASTRUCTURE STATUS58,59 Water Supply At present the per capita water supply in the city is 60-70 lpcd
57 RAY Socio-economic HH survey (SFCPoA, Gangtok, 2013) 58 SLIPS (Service Level Improvement Plans) data, AMRUT, NIUA, 2016-17 59 City Development Plan Gangtok, 2011 33
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75% of the households (HHs) have water supply connections and total length of water supply distribution pipe line laid in the City is 203.64 Km River Rateychu is the existing source of water and there is one WTP at Selep (capacity 41 MLD) Sewerage The city has 42% coverage of sewerage network services, with 96% coverage of individual & community toilets The sewer system and storm water drainage systems are separate in Gangtok, with no treatment facility for the drains which are presently being discharged into the natural streams Solid Waste Management City generates about 50MT of solid waste daily Only about 40% of MSW is collected in the Gangtok area. A significant amount of wastes is dumped into the nearest water course (jhora), streets and valley. There was also no provision for collection & disposal of hazardous toxic wastes generated from industries. Declared the best among the top 10 cleanest city in India, 2015. Gangtok Municipal Corporation (GMC) along with a local NGO named “24hours Inspired” has developed a programme called “Engage 14 progarmme” to engage school children in the process of understanding SWM. The Corporation has already initiated works to improve the situation at Martam landfill site. Storm Water Drainage There is a gap of 75.99% in the coverage of storm water drainage network (24%). Road side drains cover 37740m, out of which 28.09% are still earthen or below the required capacity. 25-30 % incidence rate of sewerage mixing in the drains. Incidence of water logging prevalent status is 4.72%. Transportation The share of personal vehicles and taxis combined is 98% of Gangtok's total vehicles, a high percentage when compared to other Indian cities. The 1 km (0.6 mi) long cable car with three stops connects lower Gangtok suburbs with Sikkim Legislative assembly in central Gangtok and the upper suburbs. Power Electricity is supplied by the power department of the Government of Sikkim. Gangtok has a nearly uninterrupted electricity supply due to Sikkim's numerous hydroelectric power stations. Housing Urban Development and Housing Department, is the nodal agency for providing individual urban housing in the state. GOVERNANCE
34
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Administrative Units assigned to Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority address climate change Gangtok Municipal Corporation: Municipal Disaster Management Committee, Ward Disaster Management Committee etc. Willingness of the city to City Disaster Management Plan, Multi hazard Vulnerability Assessment, SSDMA, address Climate Change Comprehensive mobility Plan, CDP Gangtok
35
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Chapter 4
4. Future climate change projections
4.1 Gangtok city, Sikkim
Climate projections for 2030 for the NE part of India, including Sikkim is available from the MoEFCC report (INCCA, 2010). The climate projections are derived from PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) model which is developed by Hadley Centre, UK. These projections are available at spatial resolution of 50 km. Though the NE region as a whole is expected to see an increase in average annual rainfall in 2030 with respect to 1970; Sikkim is expected to experience a decrease in precipitation of about 3% in 2030 with respect to 1970 (INCCA, 2010; State Action Plan on Climate Change for Sikkim, 2011). In 2030s, the average annual temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 to 2.1°C with respect to 1970s (State Action Plan on Climate Change for Sikkim, 2011). On a seasonal basis, there is a significant rise in temperatures in the monsoon period in June, July, August and September. The temperature is this season is likely to rise between 1.6 to 6.4°C in 2030s with respect to 1970s. In March, April and May also temperatures are projected to increase, and the range of increase is likely to be between 1.9 to 4.1°C. Similarly, the winter temperatures, starting from October are also projected to increase by 2 to 2.6°C in 2030s with respect to 1970s (State Action Plan on Climate Change for Sikkim, 2011). For 2050s, the average maximum temperature in Sikkim is expected to increase by 1.8-2.6°C, with temperature change gradually increasing from lower to the higher latitudes (Fig 9). Similarly, the minimum temperature is also varying within that range.
2050s
2080s
Average Daily Maximum Temperature Average Daily Minimum Temperature
Figure 9: Change in maximum and minimum temperatures in Sikkim in mid-century (2050s) and at the end of the century (2080s) 36
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(Source: State Action Plan on Climate Change for Sikkim, 2011). (Baseline years: 1961-1990; Mid-century period: 2012-2050; End-century period: 2071-2098)
The projected changes for precipitation in different seasons for mid-century and end-century periods is shown in Fig 10.
(Source: State Action Plan on Climate Change for Sikkim, 2011) Figure 10: Change in maximum and minimum precipitation in Sikkim in mid-century (2050s) and at the end of the century (2080s) In winters, i.e. Oct-Dec there might be increase in rainfall marginally, but in other seasons the precipitation is expected to decline. The southern part of Sikkim in particular is likely to experience a stark negative change i.e. the rainfall is likely to reduce with respect to base line by about 25%. Towards the end of the century, though summer rainfall is indicating a marked improvement, but the higher altitudes are likely to face lower precipitation with reference to base line. Similarly, the Jan-Feb precipitation scenario improves in most parts of Sikkim, except in southern part, where the precipitation is likely to be still less by 15-20% with reference to base line. It is pertinent to note here that Gangtok falls in East Sikkim district which falls in southern part of the Sikkim. Decrease in precipitation may impact the state/city by following ways:
Drinking water dependent on rainfall is likely to become more scarce as rainfall may increasingly get restricted to only monsoon period (as is the present situation) and there might be a reduced amount of rainfall as the number of rainy days’ decrease;
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Increase in intensity of rainfall will lead to high run off and less infiltration, and consequently adversely affecting spring recharge; Increased drought-like situations due to the overall decrease in the number of rainy days;
Warming may lead to a decline in the glaciers and snowfields.
4.2 Shillong city, Meghalaya
Projected change in average temperature Climate modelling studies for India show that the sub-continent is likely to experience a warming over 3- 5° C. For Meghalaya, the western parts of the state are projected to experience a higher increase in temperature relative to eastern part (Ravindranath et al., 2010, Meghalaya State Action Plan on Climate Change, 2015). The western parts of the state are projected to experience a higher increase in temperature, when compared to the eastern parts of the state. However, the variability in the increase in temperature is not high, with the highest increase being 1.8°C and average increase in range of 1.6°C. For East Khasi hills district (Shillong) the temperature increase is expected to be 1.6-1.7°C by 2050 (Meghalaya State Action Plan on Climate Change, 2015).
Table 11: Projected changes in temperature in the districts of Meghalaya by 2021-50
S. No. District Increase in Temp (°C)
1 West Garo hills, East Garo hills, South Garo hills 1.8-1.9°C
2 Ri-Bhoi, Jantia hills,West Khasi hills 1.7-1.8°C
3 East Khasi hills 1.6-1.7°C
Projected changes in average rainfall Meghalaya is projected to receive an increase in precipitation in all the districts by 2050. The western districts of Meghalaya are predicted to obtain a smaller increase in rainfall compared to the eastern districts which are predicted to obtain a higher increase in rainfall. There is high variability of projected rainfall, where eastern districts such as East and West Garo Hills are projected to obtain an increase in rainfall of only about 3%, while Jaintia hills in the west are projected to obtain an increase in rainfall of about 18%. The East Khasi Hills district is expected to receive 10-15% more precipitation by 2050 (Table 11) (Meghalaya State Action Plan on Climate Change, 2015).
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Annexure 1: Background Paper
Table 12: Projected changes in precipitation in the districts of Meghalaya by 2021-50
S. No. District Increase in Rainfall (%)
1 Jantia hills 15-20
2 East Khasi hills, Ri-Bhoi 10-15
3 West Khasi hills 5-10
4 West Garo hills, East Garo hills, South Garo hills 0-5
4.3 Conclusion from Rapid Vulnerability Assessment (RVA)
The city level study reveals that both the cities, Shillong and Gangtok are affected by natural disasters likes earthquake, landslides. As both cities are located in in high risk seismic zones of IV and V, the risk of experiencing earthquake almost at any time of the year in inevitable, causing severe damage to life and socio-economic infrastructure. The cities are prone to other major disasters like flashflood, thunderstorms/ lightning, forest fires and water scarcity. Frequent flashfloods and landslides during monsoons causes disruption in communications and road blockages. The hazard timer line reveals that cities are at the risk of earthquake and other disaster almost throughout the year.
In terms of the city services and basic infrastructure facilities the study indicates that both cities have poor Storm water drainage network across the city and nearly 30-100% incidences of sewerage water mixing with storm water drainage systems. The per capita water supplies in the cities are 60-70 lpcd with dearth of proper supply of portable drinking water which is worsened during emergency periods (landslides and flash floods). With the increasing population and population density within the cities and the vulnerable sectors (slum populations), it has become increasingly important to develop immediate short and long terms mitigation action plans.
The Government agencies at various level are taking initiatives to address the rapidly changing conditions and various studies and interventions has been carried out over the years to understand the issues of hazards and disaster management. Initiatives at State and city level like Gangtok City Disaster Management Plan, Multi –hazard Vulnerability Assessment, Gangtok, District Disaster Management Plan, Shillong, Meghalaya Disaster Management Plan have been developed.
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Annexure 1: Background Paper
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Annexure 9 Site Maps of Shillong and Gangtok
Figure: Map of Shillong
Figure: Map of Gangtok
Annexure 10 Site Photographs
Figure 1: Aerial View of Gangtok City
Figure 2: Landslide near Gangtok City
Figure 3: Landslide within the campus of GBPNIHESD-Sikkim Unit
Figure 4: Landslide within Gangtok City, near Chandmari
Figure 5: Landslide near Peepal Dara in Ward number 3 in Gangtok
Figure 6: Landslide near Vajra Killa in Ward number 3 in Gangtok
Figure 7: Sinking area in Ward number 6, near Chandmari in Gangtok
Figure 8: Landslide in Shillong on the GS Road (25º 39.107’ N, 91º 53.890’ E)