Hurricane Flooding in West Virginia
J. Steve Kite WVU Geology & Geography
Revised 31 Oct 06
John Warner Photo Cheat River Bridge, St. George Teets & Young, 1985
Plan of Attack • Hurricane Basics • Do Bad Floods Occur in “Hurricane Season?” • Survey Worst Historic Floods in W.Va. • Which Were Caused by Hurricanes? • What is Worst-Case Scenario Indicated by Other Floods in Central Appalachians?
1870, Harpers Ferry Drawing from Harper's Weekly, Historic Photo Collection, Harpers Ferry NHP
Hurricane Fran, Harpers Ferry, 8 September 1996 Photo by Terry Adams, National Park Service.
1 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Tropical Storm — winds 39-73 mph
Hurricane Categories: 1 — winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt) 2 — winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt) 3 — winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt) 4 — winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt) 5 — winds >156 mph (>135 kt)
“Hurricanes” in this Talk Includes Tropical Cyclones & Organized Remnants of Hurricanes & Tropical Cyclones
Source: http://www.edgetech-us.com/Map/MapHurriZone.htm
• Survey Worst Historic Floods in W.Va.
W. Va. Flood Inventory Project
• 10 Worst Floods List for W. Va. Encyclopedia – List of ~144 Floods that Probably Include the 10 Worst in WV History
2 W. Va. Flood Inventory • 144 (+ 2) W.Va. Floods • 21 Predate NOAA Hurricane Maps • 119 Compared to Hurricane Maps (Dates Too Poorly Known on Other 4 Floods) –61 (>50%) in June-Nov –14 Floods Associated with “Hurricanes” • 7 In Sept, 4 in Aug, 2 in Oct, 1 in Nov, 1 in June –6 Possibly Associated with “Hurricanes” • Secondary Cause? - More Research Needed
10 Most Deadly Floods in W. Va. • Ignores Deaths in Other States • W. Va. Damage Separated Out Where Possible • Many Terrible Floods Hit W.Va., but Left Most Death & Destruction Elsewhere – Johnstown Flood, May 1889, >2200 Dead – March 1913: >467 Dead, $2,700,000,000 ($ 2003) – March 1936: 107 Dead, $3,600,000,000 ($ 2003) – Jan 1937: 137 Dead, $5,400,000,000 ($ 2003), 1,500,000 homeless, record WV flow: 654,000 ft3/s (Ohio River at Huntington)
WV $ WV 2003 $ WV Yr Mo-Day Location Details Dead Damage Damage Coal Refuse Dam 1972 Feb 26 Buffalo Crk., 125 >50,000,000 >220,000,000 Logan Co. failed, ~3.5” in 48 hr Flood Damage Cloudburst: 6” rain. 1916 Aug 9 Cabin Crk. + >60 5,000,000 85,000,000 H1, H3 SE US July Trop. L after H. 1985 Nov 4-6 Eastern WV + 47 600,000,000 1,025,000,000 Juan, 4-10”/ 48 hr. Difficult to Shenandoah R, >8” rain in 48 hr. No 1870 Sep 30 43 5,000,000 68,000,000 Harpers Fy. Potomac flood! Compare Cardwell Run + “Most appalling Different Eras 1888 July 19 ~39 300,000 5,600,000 Ohio Co. cloudburst” ~ 2 hr. June North-Central Torrential rains: 1950 35 4,020,0001800s’ Stigma30,700,000 24-26 WV 7 to 8" in 5 hr. = Little Kanawha Violent T-storm: 1943 Aug 4-5 23 1,300,0002000s’ Windfall13,800,000 R. + up to 15" in 2 hr.
Charleston esp. 5.74" rain in 4 hr. 1961 July 19 22 3,238,000 19,900,000 Magazine Hollow Floods, debris flows July Paint, Cabin, 6.5“ rain in 3.5 hr. 1932 20+ 2,500,000 33,800,000 10-11 Armstrong crk. Floods, landslides. Rockport area 19.5 “ Rain in 19- 1889 July 18 Wood, Jackson, 2 hr 10 min >650,000 >12,500,000 Ritchie, Wirt co. 21
3 WV $ WV 2003 $ WV Yr Mo-Day Location Details Dead Damage Damage Adjust Coal Refuse Dam 1972 Feb 26 Buffalo Crk., 125 >50,000,000 >220,000,000for Logan Co. failed, ~3.5” in 48 hr Inflation Cloudburst: 6” rain. to 2003 $ 1916 Aug 9 Cabin Crk. + >60 5,000,000 85,000,000 H1, H3 SE US July Trop. L after H. Using 1985 Nov 4-6 Eastern WV + 47 600,000,000 1,025,000,000 Juan, 4-10”/ 48 hr Index by Shenandoah R, >8” rain in 48 hr. No 1870 Sep 30 43 5,000,000 68,000,000 Harpers Fy. Potomac flood! Robert Cardwell Run + “Most appalling Sahr 1888 July 19 ~39 300,000 5,600,000 Ohio Co. cloudburst” ~ 2 hr Oregon June North-Central Torrential rains: 1950 35 4,020,000 30,700,000State 24-26 WV 7 to 8" in 5 hr. 2005 Little Kanawha Violent T-storm: 1943 Aug 4-5 23 1,300,000 13,800,000 R. + up to 15" in 2 hr http:// Charleston esp. 5.74" rain in 4 hr. www.orst. 1961 July 19 22 3,238,000 19,900,000 Magazine Hollow Floods, debris flows edu/dept/ July Paint, Cabin, 6.5“ rain in 3.5 hr. pol_sci/ 1932 20+ 2,500,000 33,800,000 10-11 Armstrong crk. Floods, landslides. fac/sahr/ sahr.htm Rockport area 19.5 “ Rain in 19- 1889 July 18 Wood, Jackson, 2 hr 10 min >650,000 >12,500,000 Ritchie, Wirt co. 21
WV $ WV 2003 $ WV Yr Mo-Day Location Details Dead Damage Damage Coal Refuse Dam 1972 Feb 26 Buffalo Crk., 125 >50,000,000 >220,000,000 Logan Co. failed, ~3.5” in 48 hr Cloudburst: 6” rain. 1916 Aug 9 Cabin Crk. + >60 5,000,000 85,000,000 H1, H3 SE US July Trop. L after H. 1985 Nov 4-6 Eastern WV + 47 600,000,000 1,025,000,000 Juan, 4-10”/ 48 hr Shenandoah R, >8” rain in 48 hr. No 1870 Sep 30 43 5,000,000 68,000,000 Harpers Fy. Potomac flood! Cardwell Run + “Most appalling 1888 July 19 ~39 300,000 5,600,000 Ohio Co. cloudburst” ~ 2 hr. June North-Central Torrential rains: 1950 35 4,020,000 30,700,000 24-26 WV 7 to 8" in 5 hr. Little Kanawha Violent T-storm: 1943 Aug 4-5 23 1,300,000 13,800,000 R. + up to 15" in 2 hr.
Charleston esp. 5.74" rain in 4 hr. 1961 July 19 22 3,238,000 19,900,000 Magazine Hollow Floods, debris flows July Paint, Cabin, 6.5“ rain in 3.5 hr. 1932 20+ 2,500,000 33,800,000 10-11 Armstrong crk. Floods, landslides. Rockport area 19.5 “ Rain in 19- 1889 July 18 Wood, Jackson, 2 hr 10 min >650,000 >12,500,000 Ritchie, Wirt co. 21
Five Most Deadly Floods in West Virginia
WV 2003 $ WV Yr Mo-Day Location Details Dead Damage Buffalo Crk., Coal Refuse Dam Feb 26 125 >220,000,000 1972 Logan Co. failed, ~3.5” in 48 hr Cloudburst: 6” rain. 1916 Aug 9 Cabin Crk. + H1, H3 SE US July >60 85,000,000
Trop. L. after H. Juan Nov 4-6 Eastern WV + 47 1,025,000,000 1985 4-10” in 48 hr Shenandoah >8” rain in 48 hr. No Sep 30 43 68,000,000 1870 R, Harpers Fy. Potomac flood!
Cardwell Run “Most appalling July 19 ~39 5,600,000 1888 + Ohio Co. cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.
4 Five Most Deadly Floods in West Virginia
WV 2003 $ WV Yr Mo-Day Location Details Dead Damage Buffalo Crk., Coal Refuse Dam Feb 26 125 >220,000,000 1972 Logan Co. failed, ~3.5” in 48 hr Cloudburst: 6” rain. 1916 Aug 9 Cabin Crk. + H1, H3 SE US July >60 85,000,000
Trop. L. after H. Juan 1985 Nov 4-6 Eastern WV + 4-10” in 48 hr 47 1,025,000,000
Shenandoah >8” rain in 48 hr. No Sep 30 43 68,000,000 1870 R, Harpers Fy. Potomac flood!
Cardwell Run “Most appalling July 19 ~39 5,600,000 1888 + Ohio Co. cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.
Which Floods Have a “Hurricane” as Primary Cause?
Five Most Deadly Floods in West Virginia
WV 2003 $ WV Yr Mo-Day Location Details Dead Damage Buffalo Crk., Coal Refuse Dam Feb 26 125 >220,000,000 1972 Logan Co. failed, ~3.5” in 48 hr Cloudburst: 6” rain. 1916 Aug 9 Cabin Crk. + H1, H3 SE US July >60 85,000,000
Trop. L. after H. Juan 1985 Nov 4-6 Eastern WV + 4-10” in 48 hr 47 1,025,000,000
Shenandoah >8” rain in 48 hr. No Sep 30 43 68,000,000 1870 R, Harpers Fy. Potomac flood!
Cardwell Run “Most appalling July 19 ~39 5,600,000 1888 + Ohio Co. cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.
Which Floods Have a “Hurricane” as Contributing Cause?
Five Most Deadly Floods in West Virginia Which Floods Have a “Hurricane” as Contributing Cause?
WV 2003 $ WV Yr Mo-Day Location Details Dead Damage Buffalo Crk., Coal Refuse Dam Feb 26 125 >220,000,000 1972 HurricaneLogan Cause Co. failed,is a ~3.5”“Stretch” in 48 hr at Best! Cloudburst: 6” rain. 1916 Aug 9 Cabin Crk. + H1, H3 SE US July >60 85,000,000
Atlantic Trop. Low 1985 Nov 4-6 Eastern WV + 4 to 6” after H. Juan 47 1,025,000,000
Shenandoah >8” rain in 48 hr. No Sep 30 43 68,000,000 1870 R, Harpers Fy. Potomac flood!
Cardwell Run “Most appalling July 19 ~39 5,600,000 1888 + Ohio Co. cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.
Photos Copyright © 2001 Chesapeake & Ohio Historical Society.
5 Five Most Deadly Floods in West Virginia
WV 2003 $ WV Yr Mo-Day Location Details Dead Damage Buffalo Crk., Coal Refuse Dam Feb 26 125 >220,000,000 1972 Logan Co. failed, ~3.5” in 48 hr Cloudburst: 6” rain. 1916 Aug 9 Cabin Crk. + H1, H3 SE US July >60 85,000,000
Trop. L. after H. Juan 1985 Nov 4-6 Eastern WV + 4-10” in 48 hr 47 1,025,000,000
Shenandoah >8” rain in 48 hr. No Sep 30 43 68,000,000 1870 R, Harpers Fy. Potomac flood!
Cardwell Run “Most appalling July 19 ~39 5,600,000 1888 + Ohio Co. cloudburst” ~ 2 hr.
Which Floods Have a “Hurricane” as Contributing Cause?
1985 Flood Books
Popular “Myth” of Hurricane Juan Route, 1985
6 Albright: Before & After The 1985 Flood
Path of Hurricane Juan Oct-Nov 1985 Juan Was Off Map By 2 Nov 48 Hrs Before Flood
1 Nov
30 Oct
31 Oct
Path of
HurricanesPath of Hurricanes Bob (July) Danny (Aug) & Juan (Oct-Nov) Bob (July) Danny (Aug) & Juan (Oct-Nov)
1985
1 7 Au g 2 1 Nov 0 1 Au 18 9 g 30 Oct 25 Jul A Au ug g
31 Oct 24 Jul
7 “Juan” = Opening Act = Opening “Juan” “Danny” “Bob”
Map Source: Collucci et al. 1993; USGS Bull. 1981.
48 Hr Rainfall (3-5 Nov 1985)
>200 mm (>7.9”)
Collucci et al. 1993; USGS Bull. 1981.
8 Hurricane Juan “Myth Busted”
1985 Flood Mainly Caused by 3-5 Nov Tropical Storm Not Hurricane Juan
Conditions that Favored Hurricane Juan also Favored Tropical Storm.
Most Deadly Floods # 6 - # 10 in West Virginia
WV 2003 $ WV Yr Mo-Day Location Details Dead Damage June North-Central Torrential rains: 1950 35 30,700,000 24-26 WV 7 to 8" in 5 hr.
Little Kanawha Violent T-storm: Aug 4-5 23 13,800,000 1943 R. + up to 15" in 2 hr.
Charleston esp. 5.74" rain in 4 hr. July 19 22 19,900,000 1961 Magazine Hollow Floods, debris flows
July Paint, Cabin, 6.5“ rain in 3.5 hr. 20+ 33,800,000 1932 10-11 Armstrong crk. Floods, landslides.
Rockport area 19.5 “ Rain in 1889 July 18 Wood, Jackson, 19-21 >12,500,000 Ritchie, Wirt co. 2 hr 10 min
Most Deadly Floods # 6 - # 10 in West Virginia
WV 2003 $ WV Yr Mo-Day Location Details Dead Damage June North-Central Torrential rains: 1950 35 30,700,000 24-26 WV 7 to 8" in 5 hr.
Little Kanawha Violent T-storm: Aug 4-5 23 13,800,000 1943 R. + up to 15" in 2 hr.
Charleston esp. 5.74" rain in 4 hr. 1961 July 19 22 19,900,000 Magazine HollowNoneFloods, debris flows July Paint, Cabin, 6.5“ rain in 3.5 hr. 20+ 33,800,000 1932 10-11 Armstrong crk. Floods, landslides.
Rockport area 19.5 “ Rain in 1889 July 18 Wood, Jackson, 19-21 >12,500,000 Ritchie, Wirt co. 2 hr 10 min Which Floods Have a “Hurricane” as Primary or Contributing Cause?
9 Approximate Location of 10 Most Lethal W.Va. Floods
1888
1950 1870 1889 1985 1943
1961 19721916 1932
Top 10 Lethal W.Va. Floods Summary
• Distributed over State & Generations • >5.5” Rain in <48 Hr - Except Buffalo Crk • Most: 2 to 6 Hour Downpour • All = “Flash Floods” • 7 in Summer – 4 in mid-July: 2 on July 19th • None in March 1 to April 10! • Lethal Floods Not = USGS Record Floods
• Hurricanes are Not Worst Flood Killers
Qmax Week by Week: All Events WEEKLY SUMMARY OF PEAK FLOWS IN THE OHIO 160 RIVER BASIN 140 Hurricane Season 120 100 80 60 Frequency 40 20 0 JanFebMar Apr MayJun JulSep Oct Nov Dec -7 8 1 3 5 Aug 8 8 9 -18 11 r 22 n 3 -24 -15 2 31 1 2-2 - 7-1 ug 2-1 3- 4- 2 16- u l 9 ct 1-7 1 c an 12 Ap r y 18 A 20-26 t 22- c 2 J b 6- a 8-J n Ju g O ov De e an Mar 5 p USGSM 2Gauge Records Data Through ~1989 J Fe r 2 A Ju l 30- Au Sep 10-16 Oc N D a ay Ju M M
10 •Which Floods Were Caused by Hurricanes? US Date Location Details Dead Total US 2003 $ 8-17 Sep Northern Panhandle Frances + Ivan 25 $8,900,000,000 + 2004 + 18 Other Counties $14,200,000,000 19 Sep Pendleton & other Isabel 51 $3,370,000,000 2003 counties 8 Sep Shenandoah, Fran 22 $2,344,000,000 1996 Potomac, Greenbrier 20-25 Jun Regional Agnes + L 117 $17,700,000,000 1972 19-20 Greenbrier Co. Camille 153 $580,000,000 Aug 1969 in VA In VA, WV 17 Aug Red Ck., Dry Fk. Diane 200 >$7,000,000,000 1955 Tucker Co. 13-17 Oct Widespread, incl. Hazel 99 >$700,000,000 1954 Preston, Tucker co. (2,400,000,000?) 12-16 Oct Shenandoah, Hurricane 8 1942 Potomac
Other Important Hurricane Floods in WV
Total Date Location Details Dead Total 2003 $ 11-17 New, Kanawha River Hurricane 1 + 40 $395,000,000 Aug 1940 T.S.2 2-3 Oct New, Cherry Hurricane in 1929 VA 3 Sep No. Panhandle T.S. 3? $90,000,000 1912 30 Sep - 1 Potomac, Hurricane in Oct 1896 Shenandoah VA, MD 13-15 Sep New, Kanawha Hurricane in 1878 record above Eastern WV Charleston, So. Branch Potomac 29 Sep Kanawha record East Coast 1861 below Charleston, Hurricane; Elk, Little Kanawha, Ohio R. flowed Gauley records upstream
Approximate Location of “Hurricane” W.Va. Floods
1912 1972 2004
1955 1985 1870 1954 1942 1996
1861 1916 1929 1969 1940 1878
11 Hurricane Floods Summary • Concentrated in Eastern W.Va. – New-Greenbrier-Kanawha: 8 Events – Shenandoah-Potomac: 5 Events – Tucker County: 3 Events • Few Concentrated in Western W.Va. – (1861, 1912, 1916?) • Great Damage Regionally, but … • Fatalities Vary
Impact of “Hurricane” on West Virginia May Not Correlate to Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Travel Rate is Important Because it Determines Rain Amount & Intensity
Additional Moisture Sources Critical for Big, Bad Floods
IVAN Category 3 at Landfall in 2004
12 WI MI
T N O Hurricane R F D L Ivan O C Approaches Cold Front
4:20 p.m. IVAN 16 Sept 2004
LA Gumley, Liam, 2005, MODIS Image Gallery FL www.ssec.wisc.edu/ ~gumley/modis_gallery/
Paths: Ivan Follows Francis
Hurricane Ivan Rainfall Map http://www.nhc.noaa.gov /prelims/2004ivan12.gif
13 Hurricane Ivan Rainfall Map http://www.nhc.noaa.gov /prelims/2004ivan12.gif
Ohio River @ Sewickley, PA Sept 2004
313,000 ft3/s
Hurricane Ivan ~3 days from peak to 100,000 ft3/s
Hurricane Frances
Steep Falling Limb for Ohio River Flood: Led to Many River-Bank Failures
Ohio River @ Sewickley, PA June 1972 372,000 ft3/s
Hurricane Agnes >13 days from peak to 100,000 ft3/s
More Typical Ohio River Falling Limb
14 Landslide St. Marys, WV Sept 2004 J.S. Kite Photo
St. Marys, WV Sept 2004 J.S. Kite Photo
St. Marys, WV Sept 2004 J.S. Kite Photo
15 Hugo (Category 4 at Landfall in 1989)
Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1989hugo.html
Hurricane Hugo (1989)
Category 4 at Landfall - 135 mph winds, 934 mb pressure $10,000,000,000 Damage: Most $ in US History (…until Andrew, 1992) 92 Dead in Puerto Rico & Mainland USA Directly Over W.Va. Result?
Guyandotte1989 FLOW ON GUYANDOTTE River at Baileyville, RIVER NEAR BAILYVILLE, 1989 Flows WV Hurricane Hugo Hurricane
16 GUYANDOTTE RIVER NEAR BAILEYSVILLE 2001 vs. 1989 /s 3 Hugo 680 ft
Path of Hurricane h 23 Sep Hugo p m 1989 50 >
22 Sep
21 Sep
Worst-Case Scenario Hurricane Camille, Nelson Co., VA 1969 Hurricane Camille (1969)
Category 5 at Landfall - 190-200 mph winds, 909 mb pressure 24 foot Storm Surge $1,421,000,000 Damage 143 Dead on Gulf Coast Directly Over W.Va., Va. Result?
17 W . Va . 50 m ile • Morgan, B.A., Iovines G., Chirico, P., and WIECZOREK, G.F., 1999, Inventory of Debris Flows and Floods in the Lovingston and Horseshoe Mountain, Va, 7.5' Quadrangles, from the August 19/20, 1969, Storm in Nelson County, Virginia, USGS Open-file Report 99-518, URL: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1999/ofr-99-0518/ofr-99-0518.html
Hurricane Camille 8 Hour Precipitation
Virginia Division of Mineral Resources, 2005, Landslides & Debris Flow, URL: www.mme.state.va.us/Dmr/DOCS/Hazard/slide.html
153 Dead or Missing in VA 126 Nelson County Residents (> 1 % of county.) 54 Killed along 4-Mile Stretch of Davis Creek
18 Wieczorek, G.F., Mossa, G.S., Morgan, B. A., 2004, Regional debris-flow distribution and preliminary risk assessment from severe storm events in the Appalachian Blue Ridge Province, USA: Landslides, v. 1, p. 33-59. URL: http://landslides.usgs.gov/docs/wieczorek/blueridge_sm.pd f
Shaded relief map: Debris flows (red) & flooding (orange) Nelson County, Virginia, August 19–20, 1969 Wieczorek et al., 2004, Landslides, 1: 33-59
Worst-Case “Hurricane” Scenario
Interaction of Hurricane Remnants with Another Storm or Unstable Moist Air
Training Thunderstorms Stall Over a Small Area
Rain 15-20 Inches in 3-6 hrs in Mountains
(Mine Spoil Could Make it Even Worse)
19