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The Israeli European Policy Network Renewing the Middle East: Climate Changes in Security and Energy and the New Challenges for EU-Israel Relations 1 עמ' 2 ריק 2 Renewing the Middle East: Climate Changes in Security and Energy and the New Challenges for EU-Israel Relations Edited by Roby Nathanson Stephan Stetter Tel-Aviv-Brussels, November 2008 3 © All Copyrights belong to the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. The authors are the sole responsible for the contents of the articles which do not reflect the opinion of the editors or the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. © 2008 by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Israel office Cover by Assaf Ben-Ari, [email protected] Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung p.o box 12235 Herzliya 46733 Israel Tel. +972-9-9514760 Fax. +972-9-9514764 Email [email protected] ISBN 978-965-7226-23-0 Printed in Israel 4 Table of Contents Preface Ralf Hexel 7 Introduction Roby Nathanson & Stephan Stetter 11 Executive Summary 17 Part I - Environment and Energy Energy Security and Prospects for EU-Israel Co-operation Gonzalo Escribano 29 Confronting the Climate Change Challenge in Israel and the EU Eli Goldstein 47 Green Collar Jobs: The Alternative Energy Industry and Labor Markets Noam Segal 66 Part II - Soft and Hard Security UNIFIL and EU BAM: The Limits of European Security Engagement in the Middle East Shlomo Shpiro 85 ESDP and Israel Eva Gross 112 Israeli-European Armaments Cooperation Thomas A. Teichler 129 Israel-EU Cooperation on Counter Terrorism Limor Nobel 152 The EU as a Transformative Power in the MENA region: Implications for Israel Isabel Schäfer 163 European Democracy Promotion in the Palestinian Territories and its Implications for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Daniela Huber 183 5 Part III - Diplomatic Developments The Barcelona Process: Union for the Mediterranean - Assessing its Impact for Euro-Mediterranean and EU-Israeli Relations Stephan Stetter 211 The Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) Initiative and its Impact on Israel Nellie Munin 233 "A new phase in our relations?" Assessing the EU Statement of June 2008 Roby Nathanson and Moshe Blidstein 240 Authors' Biographies 247 6 Preface In 2008 as in previous years, the Middle East has been marked by intense political dynamics, but as in the past, these are scarcely pointing in the direction of a solution of the conflicts that stamp their imprint on the region. A new element is Iran's regional leadership claim, pursued on a massive level. This country's nuclear program is of very great concern, not only to Israel, but also to the other countries in the region which perceive it as a threat. In the meanwhile, the Iranian president takes advantage of practically every opportunity to publicly call for the destruction of the State of Israel - most recently in September of this year at the United Nations General Assembly. So far, the European Union and other international players have not managed to make Iran commit itself to peaceful use of its nuclear program. Hence the need to find new political bases, such as more robust involvement of the region's countries in this process. In the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, intensive negotiations have taken place in the wake of the Annapolis Conference held in November 2007. However, there is basically no chance of achieving the comprehensive peace solution hoped for by the end of 2008. When it comes to fundamental questions such as the future of Jerusalem, the Israeli settlements and the territorial question, as well as the security area, it has still not proven possible to achieve a breakthrough. Another major stumbling block is Hamas, which in June 2007 overcame Fatah by force of arms and now exercises absolute power in the Gaza Strip. The upshot is that the Palestinian side is deeply divided in its relationship with Israel, because unlike Fatah, Hamas' leaders reject out of hand any negotiations and a compromise with Israel. In Syria, there are signs of a positive development. President Assad is striving to overcome his country's international isolation. During the summit for the establishment of the Union for the Mediterranean, which took place in Paris in July 2008, and also in the framework of a meeting with the French president, the Turkish prime minister, and the Emir of 7 Qatar which took place in Damascus in September, the Syrian president declared that his country was prepared to enter peace negotiations with Israel. Unofficial negotiations, mediated by Turkey, have been taking place between the two countries since spring 2008. At the time of writing, there is absolutely no indication about the political leadership that Israel will bring to tackle these challenges. Whereas in the past Israeli government representatives often asserted that there was no real partner for negotiations on the Palestinian side, now they are themselves the target of the selfsame charge. Prime Minister Olmert, for months politically weakened by accusations of embezzlement and corruption, resigned from his office on September 21. Whether Tsipi Livni, his successor as head of Kadima, will be able to form a new government is uncertain. If she fails to do so, there will be early elections in the spring of 2009. If until then Israel has a government which is weak because it lacks sufficient political legitimacy, this will impact negatively on the Israel-Palestinian peace process and on its ties with its Arab neighbours. Relations between the EU and Israel are grounded in solid bedrock, although they are not always free of stresses and strains. They are based on a dense and diverse network of ties in the areas of politics, the economy, trade, research, and culture. The background to these ties includes Israel's participation in the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), which began in 2003, the Action Plan (AP) endorsed in 2005, and the Union for the Mediterranean launched this summer. A joint statement issued in June 2008 made it clear to both sides that the AP, which extends to 2009, is being successfully implemented and that bilateral ties are continuing to grow stronger. However, this does not mean that EU membership for Israel or greater involvement in the EU decision-making process is on the cards. There are no indications whatsoever of this in the statement. Concerning the Middle East peace process, in the past the EU was primarily viewed and accepted by Israel as a partner when it came to providing the economic and financial resources required for putting the peace process into practice. Since the Lebanon War in the summer of 2006, a decisive change has taken place here. For the first time, the EU 8 has played an active and manifestly visible role in Middle East crisis management itself in the form of its significant involvement in the Lebanon peacekeeping mission of the UN (UNIFIL), undertaking the border mission in Rafah (EU BAM Rafah), and also carrying out a police mission in the Palestinian Territories (EUPOL COPPS). A prerequisite for this was the creation of a European security and defence policy (ESDP) agreed by the EU member countries in the Amsterdam Treaty. Since then, the EU has successfully built up its own military and police forces for international crisis management. In the present book, experts from the Israeli-European Policy Network (IEPN) discuss "Soft and Hard Security Issues in EU-Israeli Relations." Starting with a broadly defined security concept, they analyse energy and climate issues, the ESDP missions in the region, cooperation in armaments question and combating terrorism, and the newly founded Union for the Mediterranean, as well as the EU's promotion of democracy in the Palestinian Territories. The IEPN was founded in 2003 at the initiative of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung Israel office. Its members are academics and experts from Israel and the EU, who in an open and creative dialogue develop new and innovative ideas about EU-Israeli relations, and jointly discuss them in order subsequently to provide political decision-makers with concrete policy recommendations, and also stimulate the public debate on this subject area. The ability to include a broad spectrum of points of view and positions in the discussion and analysis is one of the IEPN's major strengths. The IEPN's working structure is based on joint teams of Israeli and European senior researchers, who are organized in subject-oriented working groups and broader circles. In Europe, the Circle Israel brings together experts and decision makers from the EU and its member countries active in the study of issues pertaining to Israel; its parallel in Israel, the Circle Europe, provides a forum for meetings between Israeli experts and decision-makers involved in European issues. These twin anchors encourage flexibility, framed by regularly scheduled meetings held in the EU and Israel, as well as attention to concrete issues. This structure distinguishes the IEPN from other think tanks on both sides. 9 For the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES), as a German and European organization, there is a very central concern of promoting and strengthening the dialogue between Israel and the EU on all levels. With its network of offices in Israel and Brussels, in other European capitals, as well as a series of neighbouring countries of the EU and Israel, the FES is in a position of being able to make a very unique political and operational contribution to IEPN's work. On behalf of the FES, I would like to thank the authors of this book for their outstanding work and their staunch commitment. This commitment involved not only the production of the analyses, but also the frank and productive discussions among themselves, as well as with partners who took part in IEPN meetings in Brussels, Washington, Madrid and Tel Aviv.
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