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Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the Proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan V02

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Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the Proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan V02 Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan v02 Final | 27 July 2017 Document Verification Job title Mackay Area Transport Modelling Job number 251709 Document title Supporting the proposed Local Government File reference Infrastructure Plan Document ref v02 Revision Date Filename Mackay LGIP Report_v01.docx Draft 1 19 May Description First draft 2017 Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Wentworth Yao Roland Cathcart Roland Cathcart Signature Final 27 July Filename Mackay LGIP Supporting Report.docx 2017 Description Final report issue to MRC with addressed MRC comments Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Wentworth Yao Roland Cathcart Roland Cathcart Signature Issue Document Verification with Document This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party. Job number251709 Arup Arup Pty Ltd ABN 18 000 966 165 Arup Level 4, 108 Wickham Street Fortitude Valley QLD 4006 GPO Box 685 Brisbane QLD 4001 Australia www.arup.com v02 | Final | 27 July 2017| Arup J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan Contents GLOSSARY 2 1 Introduction 3 1.1 Background 3 1.2 Purpose of this document 3 2 MATM Overview 4 2.1 Model development background 4 2.2 Model scope and key features 4 2.3 Model structure 5 2.4 Inputs from MGAM to MATM 5 2.5 Demand estimation 6 2.6 Model network 7 2.7 Model outputs 7 3 MATM Application 8 3.1 Methodology 8 3.2 Scenario network development 9 4 Result Discussion 10 5 Conclusion 14 5.1 Summary 14 5.2 Limitations of the study 15 v02 | Final | 27 July 2017| Arup J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan GLOSSARY CUBE Strategic transport and travel demand modelling computer application CV Commercial Vehicle CWP Capital Works Program HCV Heavy Commercial Vehicle HTS Household Travel Survey LGA Local Government Area LGIP Local Government Infrastructure Plan LOS Level of Service is a measure used to relate the quality of traffic service and is used in this report to analyse the performance of roads based on traffic flow and available road capacity MATM Mackay Area Transport Model MGAM Mackay Growth Allocation Model MRC Mackay Regional Council MRR Mackay Ring Road project OD Origin to Destination PCU Passenger Car Unit is used in the MATM CUBE model to reflect the impact of different vehicles on traffic operation: • 1 car is represented by 1 PCU • 1 commercial vehicle (medium or heavy) is represented by 2 PCUs QTRIP Queensland Transport and Roads Investment Program SA1 Statistical Area (the smallest for release and generally have a population of 200-800 persons and an average population of 400 persons) defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics SA2 Statistical Area (general – purpose medium sized area built from whole SA1s and generally have a population between 3,000-25,000 persons and an average population of 10,000 persons) defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics TAZ Traffic Analysis Zone TMR Transport and Main Roads VOC Volume over Capacity ratio in this study is a measure which compared traffic demand (in PCUs) with available road capacity VHT Vehicle Hours Travelled VKT Vehicle Kilometres Travelled v02 | Final | 27 July 2017| Arup Page 2 J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan 1 Introduction 1.1 Background Arup has been engaged by Mackay Regional Council (MRC) to undertake future year road network scenario tests using the Mackay Area Transport Model (MATM). The MATM has been developed jointly by Transport and Main Roads (TMR) and MRC and used for their individual planning purposes and future road network scenario development. To inform land use inputs in the MATM, Council utilised the Mackay Growth Allocation Model (MGAM). The MGAM details Mackay demographic information at the lot level and the latest version of MGAM is based on Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QGSO) 2015 edition population forecasts. Figure 1-1 shows the QGSO’s 2015 edition population forecast of the 'Low', 'Medium', and 'High' growth series up to 2036. Mackay (R) is pr ojected to have a population between 155,467 and 187,783 by 2036 Low Medium High 187,783 171,313 115,960 155,467 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 At 30 June Figure 1-1 – QGSO 2015 edition population forecast The road network scenarios that were tested using MATM were generally developed based on planned infrastructure projects from the State government’s Queensland Transport and Roads Investment Program (QTRIP), MRC’s Capital Works Program (CWP) and a preliminary project list for consideration for the Local Government Infrastructure Plan (LGIP) with the addition of longer term planning projects as advised by TMR. The transport modelling work has been carried out for 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036 to assist in understanding future year road network requirements. 1.2 Purpose of this document The purpose of this project was to identify priority projects for each modelled future year to support Council’s future year network planning and the development of the LGIP. This report documents an overview of MATM, the methodology in MATM implementation, and the findings and conclusions based on model results. This report is intended to be used by Mackay Regional Council to inform future road network planning and investment decisions. v02 | Final | 27 July 2017| Arup Page 3 J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan 2 MATM Overview 2.1 Model development background The MATM model is a strategic transport model developed using CUBE Voyager software. It follows a typical four-step strategic transport modelling structure with fixed mode choice assumptions. The four steps include Trip Generation, Trip Distribution, Mode and Time Period Split and Traffic Assignment. The model was originally developed in 2011 to support the development of the Mackay Ring Road project (MRR) for TMR. Since then, it has been progressively updated including the inclusion of junction delay modelling and recalibration to the 2011 census population. TMR and MRC have continued to use the MATM for their individual planning purposes with different model versions and scenarios developed. 2.2 Model scope and key features The extent of MATM covers the Mackay urban area and its satellite towns including Sarina, Marian and Mirani. The model does not cover the entire Local Government Area (LGA) of MRC. However, external zone feeders were used to model traffic that go in and out of the modelling area. Figure 2-1 shows the spatial extent of MATM (in light yellow background) comparing to MRC LGA (in orange background). Figure 2-1 – MATM spatial extent The model network includes all roads identified as highway, arterial, distributor and collector roads plus some important local roads or accesses. MATM models four time periods including: AM (7am-9am), OP (9am-4pm), PM (4pm- 6pm), and RD (6pm-7am). It also aggregates traffic volumes of all time periods to daily volumes. Two vehicle classes are modelled during traffic assignment which are light vehicles (Austroads classification 1 and 2) and heavy vehicles (Austroads classification 3 - 13). v02 | Final | 27 July 2017| Arup Page 4 J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan 2.3 Model structure The flowchart in Figure 2-2 summarises the modelling process in MATM. The demographic and land use inputs are required for trip generation process, and the network inputs with specifications of link attributes are required for the time period traffic assignment process. TMR undertook a Household Travel Survey (HTS) in 2010 and the survey data was used to estimate demand relationships for MATM including trip generation, distribution, mode shares, time period factors and vehicle occupancy for personal travel. Figure 2-2 – MATM model convolution flowchart 2.4 Inputs from MGAM to MATM The demographic and land use data from MGAM are one of the key inputs for MATM. MGAM provides information at the lot level, so the data was firstly aggregated to the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) according to the geographical boundaries in MTAM. The data was then formatted to meet the MATM requirements with additional details in demographic categorisation. MATM requires more detail information than is available from MGAM, including information about the population’s age profile and employment by job type. MGAM population and jobs data are the used, augmented with additional detail using proportions from the TMR MATM demography dataset (TMR MATM, 2012). As enrolment data and visitor data is also not available from MGAM, TMR MATM input files are used, adjusted v02 | Final | 27 July 2017| Arup Page 5 J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan in line with MGAM population. A number of schools were identified as not following a normal growth pattern, as such the relevant zones were adjusted specifically with revised target enrolment values for relevant years.
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