Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan v02
Final | 27 July 2017
Document Verification
Job title Mackay Area Transport Modelling Job number 251709 Document title Supporting the proposed Local Government File reference Infrastructure Plan Document ref v02 Revision Date Filename Mackay LGIP Report_v01.docx Draft 1 19 May Description First draft 2017
Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Wentworth Yao Roland Cathcart Roland Cathcart
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Final 27 July Filename Mackay LGIP Supporting Report.docx 2017 Description Final report issue to MRC with addressed MRC comments
Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Wentworth Yao Roland Cathcart Roland Cathcart
Signature
Issue Document Verification with Document
This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party.
Job number251709
Arup Arup Pty Ltd ABN 18 000 966 165
Arup Level 4, 108 Wickham Street Fortitude Valley QLD 4006 GPO Box 685 Brisbane QLD 4001 Australia www.arup.com
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Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan
Contents
GLOSSARY 2
1 Introduction 3 1.1 Background 3 1.2 Purpose of this document 3
2 MATM Overview 4 2.1 Model development background 4 2.2 Model scope and key features 4 2.3 Model structure 5 2.4 Inputs from MGAM to MATM 5 2.5 Demand estimation 6 2.6 Model network 7 2.7 Model outputs 7
3 MATM Application 8 3.1 Methodology 8 3.2 Scenario network development 9
4 Result Discussion 10
5 Conclusion 14 5.1 Summary 14 5.2 Limitations of the study 15
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Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan
GLOSSARY
CUBE Strategic transport and travel demand modelling computer application
CV Commercial Vehicle
CWP Capital Works Program
HCV Heavy Commercial Vehicle
HTS Household Travel Survey
LGA Local Government Area
LGIP Local Government Infrastructure Plan
LOS Level of Service is a measure used to relate the quality of traffic service and is used in this report to analyse the performance of roads based on traffic flow and available road capacity
MATM Mackay Area Transport Model
MGAM Mackay Growth Allocation Model
MRC Mackay Regional Council
MRR Mackay Ring Road project
OD Origin to Destination
PCU Passenger Car Unit is used in the MATM CUBE model to reflect the impact of different vehicles on traffic operation:
• 1 car is represented by 1 PCU
• 1 commercial vehicle (medium or heavy) is represented by 2 PCUs
QTRIP Queensland Transport and Roads Investment Program
SA1 Statistical Area (the smallest for release and generally have a population of 200-800 persons and an average population of 400 persons) defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics
SA2 Statistical Area (general – purpose medium sized area built from whole SA1s and generally have a population between 3,000-25,000 persons and an average population of 10,000 persons) defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics
TAZ Traffic Analysis Zone
TMR Transport and Main Roads
VOC Volume over Capacity ratio in this study is a measure which compared traffic demand (in PCUs) with available road capacity
VHT Vehicle Hours Travelled
VKT Vehicle Kilometres Travelled
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Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan
1 Introduction
1.1 Background Arup has been engaged by Mackay Regional Council (MRC) to undertake future year road network scenario tests using the Mackay Area Transport Model (MATM). The MATM has been developed jointly by Transport and Main Roads (TMR) and MRC and used for their individual planning purposes and future road network scenario development. To inform land use inputs in the MATM, Council utilised the Mackay Growth Allocation Model (MGAM). The MGAM details Mackay demographic information at the lot level and the latest version of MGAM is based on Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QGSO) 2015 edition population forecasts. Figure 1-1 shows the QGSO’s 2015 edition population forecast of the 'Low', 'Medium', and 'High' growth series up to 2036.
Mackay (R) is pr ojected to have a population between 155,467 and 187,783 by 2036
Low Medium High 187,783 171,313
115,960 155,467
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 At 30 June Figure 1-1 – QGSO 2015 edition population forecast The road network scenarios that were tested using MATM were generally developed based on planned infrastructure projects from the State government’s Queensland Transport and Roads Investment Program (QTRIP), MRC’s Capital Works Program (CWP) and a preliminary project list for consideration for the Local Government Infrastructure Plan (LGIP) with the addition of longer term planning projects as advised by TMR. The transport modelling work has been carried out for 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036 to assist in understanding future year road network requirements.
1.2 Purpose of this document The purpose of this project was to identify priority projects for each modelled future year to support Council’s future year network planning and the development of the LGIP. This report documents an overview of MATM, the methodology in MATM implementation, and the findings and conclusions based on model results. This report is intended to be used by Mackay Regional Council to inform future road network planning and investment decisions.
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Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan
2 MATM Overview
2.1 Model development background The MATM model is a strategic transport model developed using CUBE Voyager software. It follows a typical four-step strategic transport modelling structure with fixed mode choice assumptions. The four steps include Trip Generation, Trip Distribution, Mode and Time Period Split and Traffic Assignment. The model was originally developed in 2011 to support the development of the Mackay Ring Road project (MRR) for TMR. Since then, it has been progressively updated including the inclusion of junction delay modelling and recalibration to the 2011 census population. TMR and MRC have continued to use the MATM for their individual planning purposes with different model versions and scenarios developed.
2.2 Model scope and key features The extent of MATM covers the Mackay urban area and its satellite towns including Sarina, Marian and Mirani. The model does not cover the entire Local Government Area (LGA) of MRC. However, external zone feeders were used to model traffic that go in and out of the modelling area. Figure 2-1 shows the spatial extent of MATM (in light yellow background) comparing to MRC LGA (in orange background).
Figure 2-1 – MATM spatial extent The model network includes all roads identified as highway, arterial, distributor and collector roads plus some important local roads or accesses. MATM models four time periods including: AM (7am-9am), OP (9am-4pm), PM (4pm- 6pm), and RD (6pm-7am). It also aggregates traffic volumes of all time periods to daily volumes. Two vehicle classes are modelled during traffic assignment which are light vehicles (Austroads classification 1 and 2) and heavy vehicles (Austroads classification 3 - 13). v02 | Final | 27 July 2017| Arup Page 4 J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX
Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan
2.3 Model structure The flowchart in Figure 2-2 summarises the modelling process in MATM. The demographic and land use inputs are required for trip generation process, and the network inputs with specifications of link attributes are required for the time period traffic assignment process. TMR undertook a Household Travel Survey (HTS) in 2010 and the survey data was used to estimate demand relationships for MATM including trip generation, distribution, mode shares, time period factors and vehicle occupancy for personal travel.
Figure 2-2 – MATM model convolution flowchart
2.4 Inputs from MGAM to MATM The demographic and land use data from MGAM are one of the key inputs for MATM. MGAM provides information at the lot level, so the data was firstly aggregated to the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) according to the geographical boundaries in MTAM. The data was then formatted to meet the MATM requirements with additional details in demographic categorisation. MATM requires more detail information than is available from MGAM, including information about the population’s age profile and employment by job type. MGAM population and jobs data are the used, augmented with additional detail using proportions from the TMR MATM demography dataset (TMR MATM, 2012). As enrolment data and visitor data is also not available from MGAM, TMR MATM input files are used, adjusted v02 | Final | 27 July 2017| Arup Page 5 J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX
Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan in line with MGAM population. A number of schools were identified as not following a normal growth pattern, as such the relevant zones were adjusted specifically with revised target enrolment values for relevant years. On the other hand, MGAM provides more detailed employment categorisation information than the MATM’s requirement. A correlation defined by Council was used to cluster the detailed MGAM employment types into five main categories used in MATM. In addition, a 'mining' job type has been subtracted from the 'industry' job type based on the proportions informed in TMR MATM dataset. MATM requires jobs in blue and white collar split for each job type. In this case, the same split proportions of blue and white collar jobs have been adopted from TMR MATM. MGAM population and employment forecast have been summarised in tables in Appendix A.
2.5 Demand estimation Trip generation Demand for some travel purposes is better correlated to the characteristics of households rather than population characteristics. The segmentation sub-model converts the forecast planning data zonal estimates into households by type, where type refers to the number of workers and the age of dependents in each household category. During the model development, the household category relationships were not available for Mackay, so the relationships used in other QLD models (i.e. Brisbane Strategic Transport Model - BSTM) were adopt to estimate the number of households in each category. The resulting proportions were compared with the proportions observed in the HTS which showed a reasonable match. Tip production coefficients were estimated separately for residents living in the urban areas and residents living in the rural areas. Analysis of the HTS datasets showed that trip rates from rural households were around 10% lower than household in urban area. Unlike trip productions, coefficients for trip attractions were not separable by region, as statistically sensible and robust relationships could not be estimated. The trip production and attraction rates are presented in Appendix B. The trip generation rates were calibrated using Mackay 2010 HTS and TMR 2011 demography datasets for the model base year 2011. Travel demand relationships for private vehicle travel are developed from this data. Other sources of observed data used in model development (calibration and validation) include: - Special generator traffic count surveys – Port, Airport, Paget Industrial Area, major shopping centres and hospital. - Camera O-D survey in Mackay, providing direct observation of external to external movements in MATM, as well as partial origin – destination data with MATM. - Screenline link volumes and travel times. Relationships for heavy commercial vehicles (HCV) were developed from local data sources for the key heavy vehicle generators in Mackay (Port and Paget) and then elsewhere in the model area, travel demand relationships were adapted from relationships used in the BSTM. The relationships were then calibrated to match observed heavy vehicle movements, including the camera origin-destination data. Trip distribution The trip distribution was calibrated to match the observed and modelled trip length distribution curve as well as the average trip length by each travel purpose. Further v02 | Final | 27 July 2017| Arup Page 6 J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX
Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan calibration check was undertaken to compare HTS observed movements and modelled sector to sector movements to ensure movement pattern matching well. Mode Share MATM does not predict mode share; instead the person trips estimated from trip generation step are firstly proportioned to motorised (car and bus) and non-motorised (walk or cycle modes), using proportions input to the model by the model user. The base year mode share inputs are based on the HTS 2011 survey proportions. These proportions can be varied to test future alternative mode share scenarios, which affect the overall proportion of trip by mode (motorised or non-motorised). Time Period Daily trip tables are proportioned to modelled time period using time period factors which vary by trip purpose. Factors are based on observed proportions in the HTS 2011. Vehicle Occupancy Person trips made by light vehicles are converted to vehicle trips using vehicle occupancy rates based on observed values in HTS 2011 for each trip purpose. External Traffic There are six external zones defined in MATM. Those include Bruce Highway north & Bruce Highway south, Peak Downs Highway, Mackay-Eungella Road, West Plane Creek Road and Sarina-Marlborough Road. Inputs to the model are the base year 2011 traffic count at these external stations and then assumptions about future growth.
2.6 Model network The road network, as the supply input to cater for the estimated demand, was implemented at the last step / assignment step of the modelling process. The base year network was established and calibrated to reflect the 2011 base year travel condition. Calibration checks were undertaken to compare modelled traffic volumes to the counts along 10 screenlines and modelled peak travel time to the observed for 9 travel routes in both directions. MATM network includes all road links identified as highway, arterial, distributor and collectors inside the model area, as well as some important local roads. MATM also takes account of intersection delays within the urban area, at a strategic level, i.e. intersection control type with simplified intersection layout and geometry. As a part of this project, MATM was used to test the future year network scenarios. The details of MATM implementation is discussed in Section 3 of this document.
2.7 Model outputs The model contains a range of standardised report forms including maps, tables and charts. Maps are produced in ArcGIS, using the model output data. Table and chart measures are calculated and reported in an Excel workbook linked to the model output data. The travel demand measures include modelled total demand, total number of trips by broad geographic sectors, VKT VHT totals, average trip length by purpose, aggregated LOS measures. The road network performance measures include screenline volume growth, modelled AM, PM and daily link volumes, proportion of HV, modelled volume over capacity ratios (VOC), average intersection delays, difference between modelled and designate road hierarchy, travel time and travel speed. v02 | Final | 27 July 2017| Arup Page 7 J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX
Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan
3 MATM Application
During this project, MGAM demographic and land use data has been firstly reviewed to ensure it was in line with QGSO’s latest projection, and the input format met with MATM's requirements. The other model input parameters and factors were maintained as the base year 2011 calibration, i.e. trip generation factors, and trip distribution parameters of the gravity model. The mode choice and time period factors were assumed to remain the same as the base year 2011 into the future years.
3.1 Methodology The methodology for developing MATM future year option scenarios was developed as illustrated in the flow chart in Figure 3-1.
QTRIP, CWP & LGIP committed projects by 2021
MGAM land use 2021 2021 base case Model runs ‘medium growth land use scenario
2021 do something Projects indicated by scenario LOS criteria
2026-2036 2026-2036 base case Model runs land use scenario
2026-2036 do Projects indicated by something scenarios LOS criteria
Prioritised project list 2026-2036 Model runs
Figure 3-1 – Network scenario development flowchart The methodology is summarised as follows: • The initial 2021 base case scenario was developed utilising the 2021 demographic and land use inputs from MGAM, and with a ‘do minimum’ network comprising of completed and committed projects based on QTRIP and CWP. • The model run result for the 2021 base case was analysed to understand network deficiencies that indicated the improvements required to resolve network level of service (LOS) deficiencies for relevant links. The 2021 network with improvements was then tested and a final set of improvements became the 2021 do something scenario. This was then used as the base case network for 2026, 2031 and 2036 testing. • The future year base case scenario model runs were undertaken with the MGAM demographic and land use inputs of each relevant year. Model run results were v02 | Final | 27 July 2017| Arup Page 8 J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX
Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan
analysed to understand locations with LOS deficiencies to identify potential upgrades and the likely timing of each. • Key projects either from the identified project list or indicated by MRC / TMR as additional strategic network improvements were tested individually under the 2036 base case model to understand the individual impact of each project. • Scenario networks were with combinations of different individual projects. Model runs results of each scenario were analysed to understand the network benefit and comparisons were carried out to evaluate the scenarios. Level of service (LOS) criteria based on volume over capacity ratio (VOC) is commonly used to define link performance using assigned vehicle volumes. LOS of D and E were applied during the study to indicate potential traffic congestion issues in the Mackay future year network, and hence to inform locations which would require network or intersection upgrades. The VOC criteria and its relationship to LOS is presented in Appendix C.
3.2 Scenario network development The 2021 Base Case network was developed from 2011 base year calibrated network with inclusion of committed projects by 2021, as well as those projects already been constructed to date. The project list for the 2021 Base Case network upgrades is presented in Appendix D. The 2021 Base Case scenario was tested to understand how the Mackay Road network would perform in the short term future under the currently planned network schemes (projects with committed funding), and further to identify any residual deficiency in the network requiring additional upgrades. The additional network upgrades were then added to the 2021 Base Case network to develop the 2021 Do Something network. The final 2021 DS network was then used as the base case network for 2026, 2031 and 2036. This provided an understanding of network deficiency ultimately in 2036 and when and where the network would start underperforming in earlier years. The approach also provided an indicative timing understanding for the network upgrade requirements. Different combinations of alternative improvements were tested respectively in order to achieve more desirable network outcomes. This process resulted in a preferred project list that would be further analysed to understand implementation timing. The project list is discussed in Section 4 of this document. These findings were used to support the development of Local Government Infrastructure Plan. For the purpose of this project, the QTRIP, CWP and the preliminary project list were used as the basis to develop the future year network options in Mackay.
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Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan
4 Result Discussion
4.1.1 Traffic demand Based on the methodology described in Section 3, scenario model runs were carried out for 2021 first to understand the network performance in the base case and where additional network upgrades are required. The model results indicate the 2021 Base Case network will generally perform satisfactorily with LOS A to D. The only location with LOS issue in the 2021 BC is Bruce Highway South section between Homebush Road and Temples Lane with VOC ratio between 0.82 – 0.91 and LOS E. An upgrade of this Bruce Highway section was tested in the 2021 Do Something scenario showed that the network would perform with all roads operating below or at LOS D in 2021. Since the networks are the same in the future year base case scenarios, the demand will drive the model outcomes in determining the deficiencies in the network and locations where require improvements to accommodate the demand growth. Table 4-1 shows the 2021 to 2036 estimated daily total vehicle demand (lights and heavies) by report sectors as trip origins. The overall modelled vehicle demand has a compounding growth of 0.4% per annum from 2011 to 2021. This is in line with the combined effect of 0.9% annum population growth with -0.5% annum job growth between 2011 and 2021 (refer to Appendix A). The demand growth will increase in later years with 1.0% per annum growth from 2026 to 2031, and then 1.1% per annum onwards to 2036. This is due to the both population and jobs growth that are forecast to have higher growth from 2026 onwards. Table 4-1 – 2011 – 2036 daily total vehicle demand by report sector
Sector Report Sector 2011 2021 2026 2031 2036 ID Origins Origins Origins Origins Origins 2 Regional – North West 12,943 12,594 12,926 13,335 13,661 1 Rural View (include Shoal Point Bucasia) 20,463 32,639 38,710 44,650 51,702 3 North Mackay 91,821 93,571 99,424 105,348 110,010 5 Port 7,077 7,169 7,319 7,803 8,635 10 Mackay CBD 101,955 89,298 94,153 101,023 109,515 9 Ooralea 5,297 9,658 13,168 18,564 21,160 6 Paget 24,424 26,181 26,678 28,244 32,604 4 Rosella 3,469 2,794 3,117 3,245 3,379 7 Regional – South West 18,253 22,464 23,661 25,126 26,511 8 Regional – South Mackay 23,614 24,951 26,111 28,817 31,069 11-16 Externals 8,948 9,881 10,667 11,709 12,759 Total 318,265 331,200 335,936 387,862 421,006 Growth (from 2011 per annum) 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1%
At the detailed sector level, from 2011 to 2021, the model indicates a reduction of traffic in the Mackay CBD as a result of jobs reduction in this area. On the other hand, the increase of traffic in Rural View and Ooralea is because of the increase of population or jobs or both in these areas. Between 2011 and 2036, the model indicates significant traffic growth will take place in Rural View and Ooralea sectors which results in an overall 150% daily traffic increase in Rural View, and 300% increase in Ooralea. The majority of the growth in Ooralea will take place between 2021 and 2031 with ~9,000 daily vehicle increase. The
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Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan growth in Rural View will be more evenly distributed across the years with a total of ~19,000 daily vehicle increase from 2021 to 2036. North Mackay will also have significant growth in absolute numbers with a total increase of ~18,000 daily vehicle demand. However, given it has a large demand to begin with in base year 2011, the growth is relatively small percentage wise with 20% from 2011 to 2036. Figure 4-1 shows the geographical boundaries of the above report sectors.
Figure 4-1 – Report sector boundary
4.1.2 Network results The model network results for the 2021 to 2036 Base Case scenarios are presented in Appendix E. It reports the daily link volumes, PM peak VOC and average intersection delays with focus in the Mackay urban area. By comparing the daily volume plots, it shows a strong and steady growth in traffic originated from the Rural View and Ooralea areas. The traffic growth from Rural View area will be loaded onto Mackay-Bucasia Road, with an overall increase of 23,500 daily vehicle trips (in both directions) from 2011 to 2036. The increased traffic will also distribute to the other parallel routes to access Mackay CBD and other destinations. In terms of the PM peak VOC ratios of each modelled future years, it shows the links in Mackay north area will progressively have congestion issues with traffic growth, especially on those links carrying traffic from Rural View such as Mackay Bucasia Road, Glenpark Street, Norris Road and Beaconsfield Road. In the 2031 Base Case, certain sections on these links are highlighted with LOS E/F. Short sections of Paradise St north of Archibald and Milton St south of Bridge Road are also highlighted with LOS E/F in the 2036 Base Case. The PM peak average intersection delay plots indicate major average intersection delays will occur in 2031 and 2036 Base Case at Mackay Bucasia Road intersections. The delays will become excessive at Mackay Bucasia / Mackay Habana Road intersection indicating upgrade work will be required. Based on the above findings, a list of projects has been considered and tested in the future year do something scenarios to resolve the traffic growth related issues. Table 4-1 summaries the model result findings at the problematic locations by comparing the PM VOC ratios between Base Case and Do Something scenarios. v02 | Final | 27 July 2017| Arup Page 11 J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX
Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan
Table 4-1 – Links and intersections performance before and after project schemes (2026 – 2036 Base Case vs Do Something)
Base Case without projects Do Something with projects Congested Road Congested Road Indicative Improvement Projects 2026 BC 2031 BC 2036 BC 2026 DS 2031 DS 2036 DS Name Section Timing (ID reference to project list) PM VOC PM VOC PM VOC PM VOC PM VOC PM VOC Shoal Point Road Kemp St north to Royal 2036 Kemp St north to Royal Sands Blvd 2 lane duplication to 4 Sands Blvd 0.55 0.78 0.96 (2012) 0.55 0.73 0.41 Mackay-Bucasia Rd Old Eimeo Rd to James 2031 Additional lanes from old Eimeo Rd to north of James Cook Cook Drive 0.77 0.98 1.13 Drive (1012) 0.77 0.42 0.49 Mackay-Bucasia Rd James Cook Drive to 2031 Additional lanes from James Cook Drive to north of Downie Downie Avenue 0.75 0.95 1.11 Avenue (1014) 0.75 0.41 0.48 Mackay-Bucasia Rd Habana Rd/Golflinks Avg INT Avg INT Avg INT 2031 Intersection upgrade at Habana Rd/Golflinks Rd – increase Avg INT Avg INT Avg INT Rd intersection delay < 1 delay > 2 delay > 10 roundabout capacity (1009) delay < 1 delay <1 delay <1 mins mins mins mins mins mins Mackay-Bucasia Rd Golflinks Rd to George 2036 Reed Street extension and upgrade minor collector to sub- Fordyce Dr arterial (71, 83) Dawson Blvd N bdry Richmond Hills Stg 1 + S bdry Premier Vista Stg 1 – upgrade minor collector to subarterial 0.74 0.86 0.98 (72, 73, 97) 0.74 0.86 0.77 Mackay-Bucasia Rd Intersections at George Avg INT Avg INT Avg INT 2036 Above + Avg INT Avg INT Avg INT Fordyce Dr, Rosewood delay < 1 delay 1-2 delay > 2 Eimeo Rd to E bdry Plantation Palms – upgrade minor delay < 1 delay 1-2 delay <1 Dr, Eimeo Rd mins mins mins collector to subarterial (67) mins mins mins Mackay-Habana Rd Mackay-Habana Rd / Avg INT Avg INT Avg INT 2036 Roundabout upgrade at Mackay-Habana Road – Richmond Avg INT Avg INT Avg INT Glenella-Richmond Rd delay < 1 delay < 1 delay < 1 Rd intersection (76) delay < 1 delay < 1 delay < 1 intersection mins mins mins mins mins mins Holts Rd Mackay-Bucasia to 2036 Dawson Blvd N bdry Richmond Hills Stg 1 + S bdry Beaconsfield Rd Premier Vista Stg 1 – upgrade minor collector to subarterial 0.59 0.85 0.92 (72,73, 97) 0.65 0.78 0.82 Glenpark Street At Railway Overpass 0.87 0.96 0.97 2031 Duplication of railway overpass and lane extensions (29) 0.9 0.47 0.51 Glenpark Street Maplethorpe Bridge 0.83 0.94 0.91 2031 Duplication of Bridge lanes and lane extensions (30) 0.87 0.46 0.5 Beaconsfield Rd to 2031 Beaconsfield Rd to Bedford Rd2 lane duplication to 4 Glenpark Street Bedford Rd 0.68 0.74 0.75 (2024) 0.7 0.72 0.34 2031 Norris Rd to Holts Rd assumed 2 lane duplication to 4 Beaconsfield Rd Norris Rd to Holts Rd 0.85 0.91 0.95 (4013) 0.79 0.38 0.46 Bridge Rd to 2036 4 lane divided signalised intersection (20) Milton Street Graffunder St 0.76 0.83 0.9 0.8 0.85 0.33 Archibald St to 2026 Signalised intersection upgrade at Webberley St – 2 through Paradise Road Webberley St 0.91 0.87 0.95 lanes on Paradise Rd approaches (14) 0.3 0.31 0.37
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Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan
In the 2026: • The section of Paradise Road between Archibald Street and Webberley Street was predicted to exceed the desired LOS. With an upgrade of 2 through lanes on Paradise Road approach at the Paradise Road / Webberley Street intersection, the PM VOC ratio will be improved from 0.91 in the base case to 0.3 in the do something scenario. The same upgraded section will continue to operate under LOS B in the following modelled years of 2031 and 2036. In 2031: • Mackay-Bucasia Road between Old Eimeo Road and Downie Avenue was predicted to have a capacity issue with the PM VOC above 0.95 in the base case. This was due to the increase of development traffic in Shoal Point and Bucasia. The duplication of the road sections were predicted to improve the traffic condition with the PM VOC under 0.5. • Similarly, sections of Glenpark Street at the existing 2 lane bridges will operate close to capacity with VOC around 0.95 in the base case. With duplication, both sections were found to operate satisfactorily with VOC around 0.5. • A short section of Beaconsfield Road between Norris Road and Holts Road was predicted to operate with LOS just above E due to the combination of through traffic from Norris Road and Beaconsfield Road East that will merge at this point before the next diverge point. With duplication, this road section was found to operate under LOS B. In 2036: • Mackay-Bucasia Road between Golflinks Road and George Fordyce Drive was predicted to operate with PM VOC at 0.98 due to the continuous traffic growth in the Rural View and Northern Beaches area, indicating a network upgrade would be required. An upgrade of this road section would improve the traffic condition, but such an upgrade was not proposed in the updated project scheme list. As an alternative the Dawson Boulevard and Reed Street Extension project were selected for scenario testing purposes, as both projects were considered to support the local developments in Rural View by providing better accessibility to the local area. It was found both projects would also help to mitigate the capacity issue on Mackay-Bucasia Road as a result of traffic diversion. In the 2036 DS scenario, the problematic road section will have improved PM VOC from 0.98 to 0.77 with both projects included. It should be noted the driver of both projects is not directly related to Mackay-Bucasia Road but to cater for local developments. • Short sections of Glenpark Street between Beaconsfield Road and Bedford Road and Milton Street between Bridge Road and Graffunder Street were predicted to have PM VOC at 0.95 in the 2036 BC. With duplications tested, both links were found to operate satisfactorily with PM VOC below 0.35. With network improvement schemes in the Do Something scenarios of each year, the relevant road sections were predicted to perform under capacity with LOS D / VOC under 0.9. The model network results of 2021 to 2036 Do Something scenarios are presented in Appendix F.
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Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan
5 Conclusion
5.1 Summary The latest demographic and land use forecast produced for Mackay indicated that the overall forecast population growth is predicted to be 1.4% per annum from 2011 to 2036, and employment growth of 0.7% per annum from 2011 to 2036. As the growth is unevenly allocated, Eimeo-Rural View have the largest share of population growth with 10,700 total increase or a 2.9% per annum growth rate. Ooralea-Bakers Creek have the largest share of employment growth with 11,000 total increase or a 3.5% growth rate per annum. In general, the modelled network in Mackay was predicted to perform satisfactorily in the base case scenarios up to 2026. In the 2031 and 2036 base case scenarios, certain roads in the northern Mackay area were predicted to experience congestion issues, including Mackay-Bucasia Road, Glenpark Street, Norris Road, Beaconsfield Road and Holts Road. The predicted areas of congestion were found to generally be caused by traffic demand growth in Rural View and the Northern Beaches areas. Network performance was found to be relatively better in south Mackay with only a few short sections highlighted on Milton Street and Paradise Road. The model results in the future year base case scenarios indicated the following recommended upgrades for consideration. 2026 - Scheme 14 – Paradise Road signalised intersection upgrade at Webberley Street with 2 through lanes on Paradise Road approach 2031 - Scheme 1012, 1014 – Mackay Bucasia Road duplication between Old Eimeo Road and Downie Avenue - Scheme 1009 – Mackay Bucasia / Habana Road / Golflinks Road intersection upgrade with increase roundabout capacity - Scheme 29, 30 – Glenpark Street duplication at railway overpass and Maplethorpe Bridge crossings - Scheme 2024 – Glenpark Street section between Beaconsfield Road and Bedford Road - Scheme 4013 – Beaconsfield Road section between Norris Road and Holts Road 2036 - Scheme 2012 – Shoal Point Road between Kemp Street north and Royal Sands Blvd - Scheme 20 – Milton Street between Bridge Road and Graffunder Street, 4 lane divided signalised intersection upgrade - Scheme 71, 83 – Reed Street extension and Rosewood Drive to McCreadys Creek, upgrade minor collector to subarterial - Scheme 72, 73, 97 – Dawson Blvd extension to north boundary of Richmond Hills and south boundary of Premier Vista stage 1, upgrade minor collector to subarterial v02 | Final | 27 July 2017 | Arup Page 14 J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX
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- Scheme 67 – Eimeo Road to east boundary of Plantation Palms, upgrade minor collector to subarterial - Scheme 76 – roundabout upgrade at Mackay Habana Road / Richmond Road intersection It should be noted that the schemes of Reed Street extension and Dawson Boulevard extension would be driven by local residential development in the Rural View area. These projects will provide greater accessibility to the developments, resulting in improvements to the overall network performance in the area. Such improvements include helping to mitigate the predicted capacity issue on Mackay-Bucasia Road through traffic diversion. The actual timing of both projects will be determined by the development stages in this area. The modelling results help understand the benefit of the projects based on the current assumed development plans in accordance with the population and land use forecast. With the inclusion of project upgrades in the do something scenarios, the Mackay network was found to operate satisfactory in the modelled future years.
5.2 Limitations of the study MATM is a transport modelling tool to undertake high level transport planning and analysis to support feasibility assessments and to provide demand inputs to the next level of more detailed transport modelling and analysis. The projects identified in this modelling exercise provide a strategic assessment of the future network upgrade requirements in Mackay. The project recommendations were made to address growth related issues, but did not include other important considerations that would inform investment decisions, such as safety improvements, cost benefit analysis, environmental impact etc. As such, it is recommended to carry out detailed analysis and / or multi criteria analysis for proposed projects when it comes to the actual planning stage. The interventions in the network would be subject to detailed project planning and investment decision-making.
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Appendix A MGAM Population and Employment Forecast
MGAM population forecast by SA2 sector
Total population by SA2 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 sector Mackay 4,272 4,257 4,504 4,929 6,118 9,703 East Mackay 4,076 3,840 3,990 4,244 4,442 4,558 West Mackay 6,843 6,397 6,535 6,617 6,731 6,825 South Mackay 7,671 7,645 7,719 7,719 7,662 7,605 Ooralea - Bakers Creek 4,326 4,761 5,286 6,850 8,533 10,698 Walkerston - Eton 8,986 9,345 9,864 10,043 10,363 10,500 Mackay Harbour 611 486 832 929 965 1,105 North Mackay 7,390 6,902 7,091 7,269 7,393 7,741 Mount Pleasant - Glenella 11,554 11,401 13,344 14,026 15,487 16,916 Andergrove - Beaconsfield 16,312 16,194 17,437 19,114 20,117 20,876 Slade Point 4,338 3,990 4,151 4,159 4,184 4,186 Eimeo - Rural View 10,462 12,043 14,522 17,173 18,651 21,163 Shoal Point - Bucasia 5,685 6,064 6,678 8,138 10,530 12,458 Pioneer Valley 6,842 7,380 8,211 8,800 9,365 9,956 Sarina 10,209 10,475 10,763 11,507 12,850 13,490 Seaforth - Calen 7,574 7,115 7,099 7,254 7,319 7,347 Total Resident Population 117,151 118,294 128,023 138,769 150,709 165,127 Growth (from the previous 0.2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% model year) MGAM employment forecast by SA2 sector
Total employment by SA2 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 sector Mackay 17,018 12,330 14,057 14,549 15,348 15,731 East Mackay 828 254 266 291 306 310 West Mackay 4,051 2,805 2,906 2,942 3,166 3,241 South Mackay 1,839 2,754 2,791 2,824 2,864 2,873 Ooralea - Bakers Creek 7,985 11,256 12,007 13,223 14,392 18,966 Walkerston - Eton 1,879 1,590 1,624 1,640 1,680 1,722 Mackay Harbour 1,419 1,624 1,627 1,628 1,638 1,715 North Mackay 3,824 2,288 2,430 2,653 2,716 2,749 Mount Pleasant - Glenella 4,804 4,406 5,436 5,835 6,109 6,238 Andergrove - Beaconsfield 2,574 1,366 1,495 1,586 1,690 1,761 Slade Point 1,111 780 815 821 828 841 Eimeo - Rural View 1,064 720 884 1,302 1,400 1,639 Shoal Point - Bucasia 509 750 764 727 709 661 Pioneer Valley 1,196 1,510 1,555 1,641 1,938 2,300 Sarina 4,282 3,440 3,528 3,562 4,095 4,774 Seaforth - Calen 909 597 606 610 611 603 Total Jobs 55,292 48,471 52,793 55,836 59,489 66,123 Growth (from the previous -2.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 2.1% model year)
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Appendix B MATM Trip Generation & Attraction Rates
MATM trip generation rates (Urban)
Households with.. HBW - HBW - HBE HBS HBO Blue White 0 Blue Collar workers 1 Blue Collar workers 1.486 0.716 0.299 2 Blue Collar workers 3.010 1.140 0.299 3 Blue Collar workers+ 6.149 1.987 0.299 0 White Collar workers 1 White Collar workers 1.324 0.592 0.745 2 White Collar workers 2.774 1.442 1.153 3 +White Collar workers+ 4.437 2.026 1.617 0 Dependant (0-17 years) 1 Dependant (0-17 years) 2.496 0.676 1.152 2 Dependant (0-17 years) 5.071 0.893 2.694 3 +Dependant (0-17 years) 8.399 1.519 3.810 0 Dependant (18-64years) 1 Dependant (18-64years) 0.306 1.414 0.698 2 Dependant (18-64years) 0.427 2.465 1.180 3 +Dependant (18-64years) 0.427 2.465 1.180 0 Dependant (65+ years) 1 Dependant (65+ years) 1.271 0.482 2 Dependant (65+ years) 3.119 1.804 3 +Dependant (65+ years) 3.119 1.804 R squared (adjusted) 0.599 0.576 0.622 0.397 0.315 Standard error 1.054 1.523 2.230 2.648 3.214
MATM trip generation rates (Rural)
Households with.. HBW - HBW - HBE HBS HBO Blue White 0 Blue Collar workers 1 Blue Collar workers 1.404 0.366 0.490 2 Blue Collar workers 2.593 0.809 1.203 3 Blue Collar workers+ 3.641 0.809 1.203 0 White Collar workers 1 White Collar workers 1.169 0.393 0.686 2 White Collar workers 2.791 0.478 0.917 3 White Collar workers+ 3.920 0.478 0.917 0 Dependant (0-17 years) 1 Dependant (0-17 years) 2.448 0.262 2.966 2 Dependant (0-17 years) 5.084 0.262 3.699 3 +Dependant (0-17 years) 8.378 0.262 6.655 0 Dependant (18-64years) 1 Dependant (18-64years) 0.084 0.450 1.274 2 Dependant (18-64years) 0.084 1.318 1.365 3 +Dependant (18-64years) 0.084 1.318 1.365 0 Dependant (65+ years) 1 Dependant (65+ years) 0.505 0.617 2 Dependant (65+ years) 0.892 1.035 3 +Dependant (65+ years) 0.892 1.035 R squared (adjusted) Standard error
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Trip Attraction Coefficients (All sectors)
HBW-B HBW-W HBE HBS HBO NHB Private households Resident Population 0.337 0.265 Preschool and Primary School 2.917 Enrolments Secondary School Enrolments 2.841 Tertiary Education Enrolments 0.379 Retail Jobs 0.1079 2.381 3.07 0.376 3.945 Service Jobs 0.698 1.327 1.552 1.950 Professional Jobs 0.014 0.865 Industry Jobs 2.187 0.326 Mining Jobs 0.514 Other Jobs 1.388 0.514
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Appendix C Link VOC and LOS Description
Volume / Indicative level Description Capacity Criteria of service <35% A Generally free flow conditions. Vehicles are unhindered in manoeuvring in the traffic stream and stopped delay at junctions is minimal 35% - 50% B Generally free flow conditions. Vehicles are unhindered in manoeuvring in the traffic stream and stopped delay at junctions is minimal 50% - 75% C Relatively unimpeded operation. Manoeuvring in traffic stream is only slighted restricted and stopping delays are low 75% - 90% D Stable operating conditions with manoeuvring becoming more restricted 90% - 100% E Conditions border on a range in which small increases in flow may significantly reduce travel speed >100% F Conditions characterised by significant junction delays and extensive queuing. Speeds are very low
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Appendix D 2021 Base Case Project List
Scheme Road Name Section Work Description ID TMR Project 1001 Mackay-Bucasia Rd Bruce Highway - Six lanes Bruce Highway - Malcomson Malcolmson St Street 1002 Mackay-Bucasia Rd Bruce Highway - Retain as Rbt but increase capacity to match Malcolmson St 3 lane approaches 1003 Mackay-Bucasia Rd Malcomson St – Six lanes from Malcomson Street – Phillip Phillips St Street 1004 Mackay-Bucasia Rd Phillips St Six Lanes downstream of Phillip Street downstream Intersection 242 Mackay-Bucasia Rd Phillips St Signalised. Review layout with 3 lane Intersection approaches 1016 Mackay-Slade Point Bruce Highway - Additional lanes from Bruce Highway - Rd River St Milton St (inbound only) 1017 Mackay-Slade Point Bruce Highway - Additional stand up lanes on each leg Rd River St Gordon St/Milton Nth & Sth. Completed and coded as latest intersection layout 1023 Rockleigh-North I/S Evans Ave & Capacity Downgrade and signal remains Mackay Rd Palmer St - Harbour Rd 1024 Rockleigh-North Malcomson St - Capacity Downgrade and signal remains Mackay Rd Intersection Evans Ave & Palmer St 1026 Maraju-Yakapari Rd Bruce Hwy - Intersection upgrade at Windmill Crossing - Glennella Connection roundabout Rd 1045 Bruce Highway Homebush Rd - City Duplication from Temples Lane to Farrellys South Gates Road 1046 Bruce Highway Homebush Rd - City Intersection Upgrade at Temples Lane – South Gates signals 1047 Bruce Highway Homebush Rd - City Intersection upgrade at Stockroute Road - South Gates roundabout 1048 Bruce Highway Homebush Rd - City Intersection upgrade at Boundary Road - South Gates signals 1049 Bruce Highway Homebush Rd - City Additional lanes at City Gates intersection South Gates 1054 Bruce Highway City Gates - Additional left turn lanes onto Bruce South Showgrounds Highway at Showgrounds 1055 Bruce Highway City Gates - Additional lanes at Shakespeare Street South Showgrounds intersection 1059 Bruce Highway Heaths Road/Sams Intersection upgrade at Sams Road - North Road - Bucasia additional stand up lanes (3 each way no Turnoff change) 1060 Bruce Highway Heaths Road/Sams Additional lanes from Sams Rd to Bucasia North Road - Bucasia Rd Turnoff 1062 Bruce Highway Heaths Road/Sams Intersection upgrade at Bucasia Rd - North Road - Bucasia additional stand up lanes Turnoff Bruce Highway Bucasia Turnoff – Duplication from Bucasia Rd to Phillip 1063 North Phillips St Street Bruce Highway Phillips St – Barnes Duplication from Phillip Street to Barnes 1064 North Rd Road (changed to Bald Hill Rd) 3004 Mackay Ring Road Stockroute Road - new 2 lane undivided highway with 100 Stage 1 Bruce Highway km/h posted speed North 3009 Bruce Highway Hay Point Rd - Intersection upgrade at Hay Point Rd - South Homebush Rd roundabout MRC Project v02 | Final | 27 July 2017 | Arup Page 20 J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX
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1 Connors Road Farrellys Lane to East Upgrade to two through and median turn Upgrade Boundary Street lane. Services to ultimate alignment 2 Connors Road East Boundary Road Signalised int E Boundary and 4 lane to Upgrade - Incl to Archibald Street Archibald Intersection 7 Farrellys Lane Connors Road to 4 lane divided Construction Michelmore Street 8 Farrellys Lane Michelmore Street to two through and median turn lane divided Construction - Incl Milton Street Michel Inter 9 Archibald / Paradise Dual Lane Dual lane roundabout Intersection Roundabout (242/LGSR/8) 12 Paradise Street Stage 1 (Henman), 4 lane construction divided and roundabout, Upgrade Stage 2 (George), completed interim upgrade as 2 lanes (120/LGSA/10) George Street to Henman Street 13 Bridge/Paradise Signalised Signalised intersection 4 lane Intersection intersection 22 Milton/Boundary Intersection 4 lane divided signalised intersection, Intersection (DTMR signalisation and four interim upgrade as 2 lanes signals No. yet to be laning assigned) 26 Bedford Rd Coles Rd to 4 lane divided construction, signalised Andergrove Rd intersection and dual lane roundabout construction 31 Glenpark/Evans/Shor Intersection Linked signalised intersections t Street improvements (242/LGSR/5) 32 Malcomson Dan Murphy 4 lane signalised intersection, interim Street/Charles Hodge Intersection upgrade as 2 lanes signals 41 Boundary Road West Hwy/Rainlover Roundabout construction and two through and median lane construction 95 Pioneer/ Gingham Developer Roundabout construction Roundabout contribution 101 Juliet / Penn Intersection Intersection signalisation Intersection signalisation 105 Rosewood Road Collector Roads for Connectivity for Rosewood Rosewood Developments 106 River Street Gregory St to Sydney Left turn lane duplication St Eastbound Only 2007 Shakespeare Street btw Milton St and downgrade to 2 lanes downgrade to 2 Sydney St 4012 Malcomson St Greenfields Blvd to Convert 2 lane to 4 lane construction Norris Rd ultimately, interim completed between Greenfield Blvd and Charles Hodge Ave Network Correction n/a Bruce Highway City Gates - Changed Shakespeare St intersection to South Showgrounds match existing 2016 layout n/a Bruce Highway City Gates - Added link for left turn slip lanes from South Showgrounds Bruce Hwy to Gordon St n/a Bruce Highway Homebush Rd - City Changed Temple Ln intersection to match South Gates existing 2016 layout n/a Eimeo Road Mackay-Bucasia Rd - Increased North-East approach minimum Blacks Beach Rd capacity to match 2 lane approach
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Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport Modelling Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan
Appendix E 2011 – 2036 Base Case Network Result Plots
2011 BY Daily link volumes
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2021 BC Daily Link Volumes
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2026 BC Daily Link Volumes
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2031 BC Daily Link Volumes
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2036 BC Daily Link Volumes
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2011 BY PM Volume over Capacity
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2021 BC PM Volume over Capacity
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2026 BC PM Volume over Capacity
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2031 BC PM Volume over Capacity
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2036 BC PM Volume over Capacity
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2011 BY PM Average Intersection Delay
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2021 BC PM Average Intersection Delay
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2026 BC PM Average Intersection Delay
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2031 BC PM Average Intersection Delay
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2036 BC PM Average Intersection Delay
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Appendix F 2021 – 2036 Do Something Network Result Plots
2021 DS Daily Link Volumes
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2026 DS Daily Link Volumes
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2031 DS Daily Link Volumes
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2036 DS Daily Link Volumes
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2021 DS PM Volume over Capacity
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2026 DS PM Volume over Capacity
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2031 DS PM Volume over Capacity
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2036 DS PM Volume over Capacity
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2021 DS PM Average Intersection Delay
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2026 DS PM Average Intersection Delay
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2031 DS PM Average Intersection Delay
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2036 DS PM Average Intersection Delay
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