The Netherlands, a Competitive Beer Market?
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Faculty Economic and Business Program Master Economics: Industrial Organisation, Regulation and Competition Policy Thesis Supervisor Maarten Pieter Schinkel Author: Patrick Diamandas UvA Net ID 5942624 Date 08-06-2016 The Netherlands, a competitive beer market? What would be the best way to identify the relevant pilsner beer market in the Dutch hospitality industry for the competition authorities, to judge about the forthcoming acquisition of SABMiller by Anheuser-Busch Inbev? 1 Content 1.0 Introduction 3 2.0 Theory 5 2.1 Merger History 2.11 Interbrew 2.12 Ambev 2.13 Anheuser-Busch & Inbev 2.14 South African Breweries & Miller Brewing Company 6 2.2 Cartel History 8 2.3 Horizontal Mergers 9 2.4 Coordinated effects 10 2.3 Price Elasticity’s 8 2.4 Geographical Market Definition 8 2.5 Binding Contracts 9 2.6 Merger Guidelines 10 3.0 Relevant Market 11 3.1 SNIPP test 11 3.2 Price Elasticity’s 12 3.3 Cellophane Fallacy 13 3.4 Geographical Market definition 3.5 Binding Contracts 14 4.0 Merger 15 4.1 Merger Guidelines 15 4.2 Finding the relevant market 16 4.3 Elasticity’s Methods 17 4.4 Market power 18 4.5 Market Identification 19 5.0 Method 20 5.1 HHI 20 5.2 Market share deviation 20 5.3 Data reliability 21 5.4 Results 24 6.0 Concluding remarks 26 7.0 References 28 2 1. Introduction The Netherlands, a competitive beer market? In supermarkets, multiple beer brands are offered next to each other; Albert Heijn supermarkets, which has the biggest market share of supermarkets in the Netherlands, sells 13 different beer crates containing 24 bottles of 25-33 cl. (AH.nl, 2015). Tremblay (1988) wrote that pilsener beer is a nearly homogenous product and the only characteristic which distinguishes beer brands is the image created by the brand. The image is affected by the quality and intensity of a firms advertising efforts. Tremblay (1988) used multiple previously done researches which all stated quality between light domestic beers couldn’t be tasted. Recent research confirmed the fact that it is hard to taste any difference: 138 beer drinkers showed they couldn’t taste the difference between Budvar, Heineken and Stella Artois (Almenberg, Dreber, Goldstein, 2014). A combination of displaying multiple homogenous products next to each other would appear as a competitive market. Currently the nr 1 beerproducer in the world, Anheuser Busch InBev, is acquiring the nr 2, SABMiller. The - research that will be done is to look at the effects on competitiveness of the Dutch beer market after this merger. The Dutch beermarket can be divided into 2 different markets: Bottled beer, which is largly sold in supermarkets and draft beer, which most hospitality industry is using. The hospitality industry pays more per liter beer than consumers in supermarkets (Baarsma & Rosenboom, 2013). Total beer sales in the hospitality industry account for 21% of total beer sales, supermarkets 52 %, liquor stores and other shops account for 23% (Stap.nl, 2015). Previous research of SEO (Baarsma & Rosenboom, 2013) showed supermarket sales are quite competitive as multiple brands are sold next to each other, where in the hospitality industry, mostly 1 brand of pilsener is being sold due to multilple factors; 75 % of beer is being sold by licensed hospitality venues which are tied to breweries trough guarantee agreements, rental contracts, finance and loan agreements of equipements. Baarsma & Rosenboom (2013) raised some question about competitiveness between breweries in the hospitality industry, even before a merger of the 2 companies with the largest market shares in the world. In the Netherlands at the end of 2014 Heineken brands: Heineken, Amstel and Brand had a total 3 market share in beer sales of 49 %, AB Inbev brands: Jupiler, Hertog Jan and Dommelsch had a total market share of 22,2 % and SABMiller brand: Grolsch had a market share of 9,5% (Datlinq, 2014). To satisfy the Federal Trade Commission in the US, SABMiller is selling their 58% market share in MillerCoors (FD, 2015, October). Further disposal of market share would probably be necessary in China, the United Kingdom and perhaps in the Netherlands. In the Netherlands, this could be solved by selling Dommelsch to for example Bavaria (FD, 2015, October). There could be potential anti competitive effects in Great Britain because Peroni together with Grolsch could exceed the 40% market share threshold that would state the merger anti competitive. SABMiller and AB Inbev will not reach this 40% threshold in the Netherlands. Grolsch should perhaps be sold due to a unfortunate construction where Molson Coors actually dictates Grolsch. In the Netherlands, where the combined company remains well below the 40 % market share of Heineken, Grolsch should potentially be sold for anti competitive concerns in the U.K (FD, 2015, December). This was the only potential threat to disallow the merger by the European Commission according to the “ Financieel Dagblad” newspaper in the Netherlands. For competition policy, market power is important to identify. In merger cases, it has to be understood if it will be profitable to raise prices for merging firms. To identify market power, the market definition should be correct in both the product and the geographic dimension (Motta, 2004). To find the relevant market the small but significant non-transitory increase in prices test, simplified SNIPP-test could be done. If a hypothetical monopolist of the market could gain profit by increasing the price by 5-10%, the relevant market is chosen. In this research there will be looked at pilsner beer in the Dutch hospitality industry with the following research question: What would be the best way to identify the relevant pilsener beer market in the Dutch hospitality industry for the competition authorities, to judge about the forthcoming acquisition of SABMiller by Anheuser-Busch Inbev? 4 2. Theory 2.1 Merger History 2.11 Interbrew The Belgium company, Interbrew was formed by a merger of Artois and Piedboef in 1987. Interbrew started expanding their borders and acquired the Canadian company, Labatt Brewing Company in 1995, the Russian Sun Group in 1999, and two United Kingdom based breweries, Whitbread and Bash in 2000. When the Germans Becks was acquired they would have to sell the Carling part of Bash in 2002 due to competitive constraints in the United Kingdom. This would make Interbrew competitive with the three largest breweries at that time; Anheuser-Busch, Heineken N.V. and Miller Brewing Co. 2.12 Ambev Ambev originated in 1999 from a merger between the two Brazilian company’s, Brahma and Antartica. To expand in Northern Latin America a joint venture established in 2002 between Ambev and The Central America Bottling Corporation; Ambev Centroamerica. Subsequently in 2003 a Southern expansion followed by the aquisition of the largest shares in Quinsa, the largest shareholder of the largest Argentinian brewery, Quilmes (Ambev.com, 2016) . 2.13 Anheuser-Busch & Inbev In 2004 the worldwide number three and five brewers, Interbrew and Ambev merged, where Interbrew changed their name to Inbev and became the largest shareholder of Ambev. Inbev became the largest brewery by overtaking number one Anheuser-Busch and number two SABMiller. Anheuser-Busch, the creator of Budweiser and Bud Light firstly sold their most beer in the United States before conquering the global beer market with their own brands. To set foot in the Chinese market, they won the 2004 battle with SABMiller to take over the Chinese fourth largest brewery, Harbin (NY Times, 2004). In 2008 the global number one brewery, Inbev and number two, Anheuser-Busch merged into Anheuser Busch Inbev. For this merger to occur it was necessary to sell the US part of Labatt breweries to North American Breweries to preclude anti competitive concerns in this region. More competitive concerns rose when Grupo Modelo, the maker of Corona beer, was acquired in 2012. This will be covered in Chapter Geographical Market Definition. 5 2.14 South African Breweries & Miller Brewing Company South African Breweries brewed their famous Castle beer since 1895. The 1993 acquisition of the Hungarian Dreher Brewery was the beginning of a game-changing decade of mergers and acquisitions. In 1994 SAB entered Tanzania, Angola, Mozambique, Zambia and negotiated a joint control with China Resources, the second largest brewery in Mainland China. The next years Poland, Romania and Czech followed before the first day of trading on the London Stock Exchange in 1999. In 2001 SAB was the first international brewery to enter the Central American market and acquired Miller Brewing Company, at that time the second largest brewery in the US, changing the company name to SABMiller. The next decade more acquisitions followed: Colombia’s Bavaria S.A, the second largest brewer in Latin America, in 2005, Koninlijke Grolsch N.V. in 2007, a joint venture in the U.S. with Molson Coors started in 2008, The leading Australian brewery, Foster’s in 2011, the Turkish EFES was acquired in 2012 and the English Meantime Brewery in 2015. Today, in 95% of the markets where SABMiller is operating, they are the leading, or number two brewery (SABMiller, 2016). In the first figures below the brands brands of InBev are shown and in the second figure below, the company takeovers to Form Anheuser-Busch Inbev are shown. Source: (Inbev, 2016) 6 7 2.2 Cartel History In 2001 the European Commision fined 4 breweries for participating in two secret cartels on the Belgian beer market between 1993 and 1998 (Europese Commissie IP/01/1739, 2001). These cartels were unique because they were the first proven cartels where the most important managers of the large beer breweries were participating. The first cartel involved market sharing, price fixing and information exchange in the hospitality industry and retail sector between Interbrew, the then market leader in Belgium and Alken-Maes/Danone, the number two brewery.