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PETER KINGSLEY, PJR Foreword Community Futures DAVID SMITH, STANTEC NANCY MACDONALD, STANTEC PETER KINGSLEY, PJR Foreword There are unprecedented challenges that cities and communities around the world are facing, ranging from growth and densification, aging infrastructure, climate issues and the impacts from severe storms, to social issues like affordable housing and income disparity. There are immense opportunities for positive change through new technologies, ecosystem regeneration and holistic, joined-up thinking by city and community leaders. We recognize the need to continue to lead and innovate in this area. At Stantec, our promise is to Design with Community in Mind and we have been working with community leaders for over 65 years to improve the quality of life for citizens in communities around the globe. We need to continue to engage with the communities we serve to bring new and innovative solutions to the table: we should all think globally, act locally. Gord Johnston President and CEO Stantec STANTEC: COMMUNITY FUTURES FOREWORD | 02 Infrastructure is at the center of things. long-term future and cultural norms—can build on Solutions that integrate across the natural and opportunities for renewal and regeneration. built environment—ecosystem infrastructure— will be key to transforming community futures. This means that community leaders, in a context The overarching story is that while national and set by growing climate and biospheric crises, face international cooperation and collective action are the challenge of setting the long-term agenda Introduction important, action at the local level on sustainability and delivering vision-led innovation to create the goals reaching out to 2050 and beyond is vital. context for radical action. The key is to anticipate the public’s unarticulated future needs. In more This book explores seven high-impact, high-uncertainty In many ways, the rate and scale of ecosystem- extreme scenarios, there will be a premium centered infrastructure redesign and renewal on solutions that deliver quickly, using low-risk variables shaping the future of communities around over the next few decades will shape the long- technologies and meet specific local concerns. the world. While discussed separately in each of the term future of communities, cities and the Community-level action will prove crucial, though in global environment. some countries, states will dominate. seven chapters, these variables are both interrelated and interdependent. Cities stand on the front line in the battle Strategic long-term plans must be inclusive, A fundamental uncertainty shadows this entire address wider imbalances and engage the public picture: Whether society can maintain social, to mitigate environmental damage from climate change, in decisions. Expenditures may be required over economic and political stability in a transition to a regenerate the biosphere, and lay the foundation for the short term to deliver resilience over the long sustainable future that takes place alongside both term. Over the last few decades, corporate, national accelerating climate and biospheric change and sustainable and socially inclusive development. and city leaders have tended to focus more on potentially exponential innovation. Ecosystem infrastructure—solutions that integrate the short term, neglecting long-term resilience, community-building, social identity and cultural Critical Uncertainties: seven chapters on across the natural and built environment—will be key norms that characterized earlier eras of large-scale community futures to transforming community futures. technological and industrial disruption. With a company purpose of "Creating Fragility of natural systems and infrastructure may Communities," at Stantec we always design produce social unrest for some communities. with community in mind. We promote long- Urgent action may amplify deep-seated inequalities term thinking and innovation to address and division. In contrast, other communities— communities’ needs in a rapidly changing and united by shared identity and narratives about the challenging world. > STANTEC: COMMUNITY FUTURES INTRODUCTION | 03 In 2019, we commissioned Peter Kingsley, an and urban transport—will shape the future and the independent expert in foresight and future strategic choices facing community leaders. THE CHAPTERS thinking, to collaborate with Stantec experts in developing fresh thinking about the critical Infrastructure comprises both “hard” and “soft” uncertainties and opportunities facing varieties, and our next chapter examines the No1 Climate Change: integration of natural and technology-based 11 communities. This book, the result of that the scale of the challenge collaboration, contains a series of chapters solutions as well as the development of “creative exploring the high-impact, critical uncertainties communities” that focus on socially inclusive well- o that lie ahead. being, on meeting human needs and on attracting N 2 Biosphere: 20 talented, innovative people. from pollution to regeneration The seven chapters that make up this book explore the long-term future: to 2050 and beyond. We We conclude by exploring the critical role that No3 Water, Energy and Agriculture: can see them as intertwined narrative threads— governance and leadership will play in a volatile 30 opportunity through transformation not descriptions of linear trends, but rather and highly uncertain world. components of a larger, dynamic and adaptive “system of systems.” We show how these developments and technologies No4 The Rise of Digital Cities: 41 are gaining traction and how accelerating develop- pervasive systems and automation In scenario terms, each narrative thread represents ment cycles may change the landscape sooner than a “high-impact, high-uncertainty” variable. Each many anticipate. Scenarios embedded throughout No5 Transport: chapter tries to make sense of often conflicting the chapters raise two questions. First, ”What might 48 radical innovation ahead evidence and signals. The chapters are intended happen?” and second, critically, is about the strategic to raise questions, to stress test strategies for options that exist now, “What might we do?” national and city leaders in markedly differing o N 6 Creative Communities: 57 circumstances around the world, and to set the Cities stand on the front line in meeting the building a sense of place scene for fresh, innovative strategic options. challenges of climate change, regenerating the biosphere and natural environment and creating No7 Cities, Communities and Governance: The chapters begin by exploring the systemic risks sustainable, socially inclusive development. The 66 to the world’s climate and biosphere. idea that decentralization and local action will think globally, act locally shape people’s lives for generations to come We then examine radical new technologies and echoes through each chapter. One size will not This compass icon indicates the how decentralized, distributed systems—from fit all. Never has think global, act local seemed related photo is a Stantec project. energy, water and agriculture to digital networks more appropriate. STANTEC: COMMUNITY FUTURES INTRODUCTION | 04 David Smith Nancy MacDonald Peter Kingsley Senior Vice President Vice President Independent Foresight Expert Corporate Strategy, Stantec Urban Places, Stantec PJR David is a leader in strategy for sustainable infrastructure. As our Urban Places director and Smart Cities lead, Nancy is Peter is a globally recognized expert in foresight With more than 30 years of experience, David has led large-scale heavily engaged in creating communities of the future. She and future thinking. He recently co-founded The Oracle strategic consulting assignments and infrastructure delivery is excited about future-proofing our communities, building Partnership, which specializes in agenda-setting foresight, programs across the globe. infrastructure that will serve current needs and planning for the strategic risk and innovation. changing future. Nancy has led a wide range of both public and David holds a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering and an MBA. private sector planning projects, working with diverse groups He has delivered thought leadership and strategic advice to the He completed the Advanced Management Program at Harvard of stakeholders as they solve complex urban challenges. She’s boards of some of the world’s leading investment banks, hedge Business School and the Program for Sustainability Leadership currently co-leading Stantec’s team working with Sidewalk Labs funds, insurance underwriters and corporations. Earlier in his at the University of Cambridge. He is a fellow of the Institution of (an urban innovation developer) on smart, urban infrastructure career, he held senior executive positions at Reuters and Dow Civil Engineers. design services for its proposed Quayside development in Toronto. Jones. He was also a partner at Stanford Research Institute’s futures think tank. STANTEC: COMMUNITY FUTURES INTRODUCTION | 05 Executive Summary Abberton Reservoir Colchester, United Kingdom STANTEC: COMMUNITY FUTURES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | 06 No1 Chapter 1 focuses not just on the urgent need for systemic changes but also on the possibility that such changes might prove too little, too late. Warming that has already Climate Change: occurred may lock in extreme and irreversible harm to the scale of natural systems. However, shifts in human behavior and Ecosystem Infrastructure: the challenge economic models could stabilize the environment and limit
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