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Resilience in the Rangelands? Responses to Change in the Amboseli Social-Ecological System of Kenya

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Resilience in the Rangelands? Responses to Change in the Amboseli Social-Ecological System of Kenya RESILIENCE IN THE RANGELANDS? RESPONSES TO CHANGE IN THE AMBOSELI SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM OF KENYA ELIZABETH ANNE CARABINE SUBMITTED FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD JUNE 2014 ABSTRACT Over the past century arid and semi-arid systems have been undergoing an accelerating process of change. Rapidly shifting land-use is leading to fragmentation of rangelands, driven by socio-economic factors including population growth, globalisation, competition for land, tourism, intensification of production and political pressures. Increased climate variability and frequency of extreme weather events adds a further layer of complexity. The Amboseli system exemplifies the multiple stressors facing communities in these semi-arid contexts. In 2009, the area suffered the most severe drought in 50 years, during which an estimated 85% of livestock was lost to the Maasai pastoralists that inhabit the area. This interdisciplinary research used mixed methods and modelling approaches to investigate the impacts of and responses to this shock, as well as implications for longer-term processes of land-use change and climate change. The key findings of this research show first that the psychological impacts of the 2009 drought have implications for place-identity and cultural norms, both critical aspects of resilience in social-ecological systems. Second, this shock has thrown institutions into tension. In the context of multiple stressors, new power dynamics and shifting worldviews in Amboseli are giving rise to actions that may prove maladaptive in the longer term. Third, the decision-making processes leading to shifts in livelihoods and land use are determined by this multiple stressor context as well as access to resources and access to sources of power and authority. These are important components of resilience in Amboseli. Fourth, climate change and land- use change are likely to interact over the long-term to impact on vegetation structure and function in complex ways that will interplay with the local-scale dynamics described in the previous points to influence the resilience of Amboseli. i ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research was funded by an ESRC/NERC Interdisciplinary Studentship, for which I am very grateful. I also received financial support from the University of Sheffield Learned Society Fund, which provided the opportunities to disseminate my findings at international conferences. I would especially like to thank my supervisors, Chasca Twyman, John Wainwright and Colin Osborne, for their unwavering encouragement, guidance and inspiration. The postgraduate research students and post-docs of the Osborne lab also offered invaluable assistance, as did my fellow Geography students. Steve Higgins and Simon Scheiter of the Institute of Physical Geography at the Goethe Universität Frankfurt am Main kindly allowed me the use of their aDGVM and offered vital guidance during my time with them. The Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F) provided funding for this collaboration. I sincerely thank the communities of the Eselenkei, Mbirikani and Olgulului Group Ranches for permitting me to stay with them, for teaching me about their incredible system and for their friendship. The Lion Guardians programme provided critical support and introduced me to the people and places of the Amboseli system, for which I am indebted to them. My parents have been a huge support throughout this journey and I thank them for their love and patience. Finally, this thesis would not have been possible without my husband, a constant companion, excellent research assistant and always the voice of reason. iii iv CONTENTS ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................... iii CONTENTS ................................................................................................................ v LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................... x LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................ xi CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Overview of research approach ................................................................... 3 1.3 Outline of thesis structure ........................................................................... 4 CHAPTER 2. UNDERSTANDING SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND CHANGE: THE THEORETICAL CONTEXT ............................................................................................... 7 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 7 2.2 Rangeland systems ....................................................................................... 7 2.3 Land-use change in the rangelands ............................................................. 9 2.4 Climate change in Africa ............................................................................ 12 2.4.1 Climate trends for Africa ........................................................................ 13 2.4.2 Observed and projected temperature changes in East Africa ............... 13 2.4.3 Observed and projected precipitation changes in East Africa ............... 14 2.4.4 Observed and projected extreme temperature and rainfall in East Africa ................................................................................................................ 14 2.5 Climate change impacts on rangelands ..................................................... 15 2.5.1 Impacts on semi-arid grassland ecosystems .......................................... 15 2.5.2 Impacts on livestock production ............................................................ 16 2.5.3 Impacts on pastoralist livelihoods ......................................................... 17 2.6 Resilience in the rangelands?..................................................................... 19 2.6.1 Social-ecological resilience ..................................................................... 19 2.6.2 Adaptation to climate change ................................................................ 21 2.6.3 Towards an interdisciplinary approach .................................................. 23 2.7 Overview of conceptual framework for this research ............................... 25 2.8 Summary .................................................................................................... 28 CHAPTER 3. AN INTERDISCIPLINARY METHODOLOGY FOR UNDERSTANDING THE AMBOSELI SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM .................................................................. 30 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 30 3.2 Research aim .............................................................................................. 30 v 3.3 Study area .................................................................................................. 31 3.4 Research design ......................................................................................... 34 3.4.1 Establishing context ................................................................................... 34 3.4.2 Understanding land use and livelihoods in Amboseli ............................ 36 3.4.2.1 Semi-structured interviews............................................................ 36 3.4.2.2 Participant observation and informal discussion .......................... 37 3.4.2.3 Analysis and interpretation............................................................ 38 3.4.3 Agent-based modelling approach .......................................................... 38 3.4.3.1 Gain an understanding of the social-ecological system, including the bounds of the system, and identify different classes of agents and their attributes........................................................................................................ 40 3.4.3.2 Develop the behavioural rules for different agent typologies and specify parameters......................................................................................... 41 3.4.3.3 Test the behavioural rules with research participants .................. 41 3.4.4 Modelling vegetation dynamics – the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model .............................................................................................. 42 3.4.5 Adapting the aDGVM to simulate livestock grazing .............................. 46 3.5 Methodological challenges and adjustments ............................................ 47 3.6 Ethical considerations ................................................................................ 49 3.6.1 Arranging access .................................................................................... 49 3.6.2 Positionality and reflexivity.................................................................... 51 3.6.3 Confidentiality ........................................................................................ 53 3.6.4 Communicating models ......................................................................... 53 3.7 Summary ...................................................................................................
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