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Joep Steffes Mesosfeer 1 1705TK Heerhugowaard J.Steffes@Steffes.Nl J Oep Stef 06 270 407 53 DEBIASING STRATEGISCHE BESLUIT UITNODIGING Voor het bijwonen van de openbare DEBIASING STRATEGISCHE verdediging van mijn proefschrift BESLUITVORMING Debiasing strategische Beperkte rationaliteit bij strategische besluitvorming en besluitvorming de corrigerende rol van de Raad van Commissarissen Beperkte rationaliteit bij strategische besluitvorming en de corrigerende rol van de Raad van Commissarissen op 27 Januari 2020 om 16:00 V ORMING in het Koetshuis van Kasteel Nyenrode Nyenrode Business Universiteit Straatweg 25, 3621 BG Breukelen Na afloop van de promotieplechtigheid is er een receptie ter plaatse waar u van harte welkom bent. Joep Steffes Mesosfeer 1 1705TK Heerhugowaard [email protected] J oep Stef 06 270 407 53 Paranimfen fes Arjan Petra Irene Makelaar 06 203 271 54 Joep Steffes [email protected] ISBN: 978-90-8980-135-7 DEBIASING STRATEGISCHE BESLUITVORMING Beperkte rationaliteit bij strategische besluitvorming en de corrigerende rol van de Raad van Commissarissen Proefschrift ter verkrijging van het doctoraat aan de Nyenrode Business Universiteit op gezag van de Rector Magnificus, prof. dr. Misa Džoljić en volgens besluit van het College voor Promoties. De openbare verdediging zal plaatsvinden op 27 januari 2020 des 16:00 uur precies door Josef-Dirk (Joep) Steffes Copyright 2020, Joep Steffes, Heerhugowaard, Nederland ISBN: 978-90-8980-135-7 Printed by: ProefschriftMaken || www.proefschriftmaken.nl DEBIASING STRATEGISCHE BESLUITVORMING Beperkte rationaliteit bij strategische besluitvorming en de corrigerende rol van de Raad van Commissarissen Proefschrift ter verkrijging van het doctoraat aan de Nyenrode Business Universiteit op gezag van de Rector Magnificus, prof. dr. Misa Džoljić en volgens besluit van het College voor Promoties. De openbare verdediging zal plaatsvinden op 27 januari 2020 des 16:00 uur precies door Josef-Dirk (Joep) Steffes geboren op 6 januari 1967 te Koblenz, Duitsland Promotoren: Prof. dr. mr. M. Pheijffer RA Prof. dr. E. van de Loo Leescommissie: Prof. dr. ir. G. van Dijk Prof. dr. L. Paape RA RO CIA Prof. dr. B. Hoogenboom Prof. dr. mr. J.W. Winter Voorwoord Anything that gives us new knowledge gives us an opportunity to be more rational. (Herbert A. Simon) Reeds in de 17e eeuw werd naar aanleiding van de Tulpencrisis een pamflet uitgegeven waarin de irrationaliteit van berooide speculanten (tulpenkwekers) in tulpenbollen op de volgende wijze uiteengezet werd: “…een claere ontdeckingh der dwaesheydt…” (Mensonides, 1637). Irrationeel beslissen, met alle gevolgen van dien, is van alle tijden. En bijzonder hardnekkig gezien de vele crisissen en slechte besluiten waarmee we telkens worden geconfronteerd. Besluiten om te promoveren is in mijn geval op z’n best een beperkt rationele beslissing geweest. Eentje waarvan ik van te voren niet wist hoeveel tijd en energie ik zou moeten inzetten om het tot een goed einde te brengen, of dat dit einde überhaupt ooit in zicht zou komen. Nu u dit leest kan ik op dat laatste in ieder geval bevestigend antwoorden. Daarmee rijst onherroepelijk de vraag die ook voor de meeste beslissingen zal gelden: was dit het waard? Voor mij en voor al die anderen die mij hierin hebben geholpen? De wetenschappelijke- en maatschappelijke waarde van dit onderzoek wordt aan het einde van dit document weergegeven. Eén goede beslissing meer (of een slechte beslissing minder) zou reeds al mijn inspanningen en die van anderen bij dit onderzoek kunnen rechtvaardigen. De (maatschappelijke) kosten van verkeerde beslissingen worden immers regelmatig in de media uiteengezet. Bij financiële-, zorg- en onderwijsinstellingen, bij woningbouwcorporaties en bij de overheid. Waar eigenlijk niet? Dat het vaak beter kan en moet staat evenmin nauwelijks ter discussie. Tot op het niveau van de Verenigde Naties wordt gesproken over het feit dat de kwaliteit van besluitvorming in het licht van een steeds complexer wordende wereld moet worden verbeterd. Tot zover de rationele benadering om dit onderzoek te doen. De waarde van dit onderzoek voor mij als mens is echter van een heel andere orde. Kennis opdoen, jezelf doorontwikkelen en kennis vervolgens delen betreft niet altijd een rationele afweging. Wat is het je waard, je als mens verder te ontwikkelen? Om ergens goed in te worden? Om daarmee vrijheid en mobiliteit te verkrijgen en andere dingen te ontdekken en uit te proberen? Hoe tellen deze waarden op indien het meerdere mensen betreft? Beslissen om te promoveren is óók een kwestie van gevoel. Het is voor mij dan op z’n best een ‘beperkt rationele beslissing’ geweest omdat ik niet alle informatie van te voren heb kunnen afwegen, mijn doelen niet altijd even helder waren en ik te maken had met grote onzekerheid over de uitkomsten van het promotietraject. Het was van te voren niet te voorspellen of ik mijn tijd en die van anderen waardevol kon claimen en achteraf kon verantwoorden. Mijn dank is dan ook zeer groot voor de mensen die mij hierin onvoorwaardelijk hebben gesteund. In het bijzonder wil ik noemen mijn promotoren Marcel Pheijffer en Erik van de Loo. Op gezette tijden hebben zij mij zelf leren zwemmen in een wetenschappelijke vijver waarin ik soms de bodem en ook de kant niet meer zag, op andere momenten waren zij ook weer in staat mij te motiveren om door te zetten. Heel veel dank hiervoor! De casestudie bij Eriks NV had ik niet kunnen doen zonder de bereidheid van (voormalig) bestuurders hieraan mee te willen werken. Het openen van de black-box van strategische besluitvorming op bestuursniveau is in zekere zin een moedige, maar ik hoop ook voor de organisatie een waardevolle exercitie geweest. In het bijzonder wil ik dan ook Jan de Boer (voormalig CFO van Eriks NV) en Ricki Nauta (Secretary to the Board van Eriks NV) bedanken voor hun extra inspanningen, steun en bemiddeling hierin. Eenzelfde dank gaat ook uit naar alle geïnterviewden die mij met name in de laatste fase van het onderzoek een reality check boden. Daarnaast heeft een groot aantal mensen op een aantal momenten meegelezen, meedacht en meegesproken. Bijzondere dank gaat daarbij uit naar Fred van Eenennaam, Hans Hoek en Carla van der Weerdt. Alles heeft uiteindelijk een plek gekregen. Soms in de vorm van een stukje tekst of een correctie, soms in een nieuwe gedachtegang die ik kon uitdiepen, soms gewoon in het plezier om het erover te hebben. Eenieder die hieraan heeft meegewerkt wil ik hiervoor bedanken. Als laatste, maar minstens even belangrijk mijn lieve vrouw Hetty en onze kinderen Kian, Diaz, Mischa en (in memoriam) Mika. Zonder hun steun was dit niet mogelijk en zinvol geweest. Joep Steffes Heerhugowaard, 2020 Inhoudsopgave 1. Introductie 13 1.1. Achtergronden van het onderzoek 15 1.2. Wetenschappelijke en maatschappelijke relevantie van het onderzoek 17 1.3. Inhoudelijke afbakening onderzoek 18 1.4. Onderzoeksvragen 19 1.5. Onderzoeksmethodologie 20 1.5.1. Interpretivisme als onderzoeksfilosofie 21 1.5.2. Onderzoeksaanpak 22 1.5.3. Methodologie en tijdshorizon 23 1.5.4. Een gecombineerde onderzoeksstrategie 24 1.5.5. Operationalisering onderzoeksstrategie 29 1.6. Leeswijzer 32 2. De ratio bij strategische besluitvorming 37 2.1. Literatuuronderzoek Grounded Theory-ontwikkeling 39 2.2. Inleiding in de theorie van beperkte rationaliteit 40 2.3. Rationele en beperkt rationele beslissers in historisch perspectief 41 2.4. De opkomst van ‘beperkte rationaliteit’ 43 2.5. Naar een gedragsmatige benadering van besluitvorming 44 2.5.1. Normatieve, descriptieve en prescriptieve beslissingstheorieën 46 2.6. Beperkte rationaliteit bij oordeelsvorming en besluitvorming 48 2.6.1. Cognitieve beperkingen als verklarende factor van beperkte rationaliteit 49 2.6.2. Affecties en gevoelens als verklarende factor van beperkte rationaliteit 53 2.6.3. Systeem 1- en Systeem 2-denken als verklaring voor beperkte rationaliteit 55 2.6.4. Groepsdynamica als verklarende factor van beperkte rationaliteit 57 2.7. Strategische besluitvorming en beperkte rationaliteit 59 2.7.1. Onzekerheid en complexiteit bij strategische besluitvorming 59 2.7.2. Fasering strategische besluitvorming 62 2.7.3. Effecten van beperkte rationaliteit binnen de fasen van besluitvorming 65 2.8. Een verklaring van beperkte rationaliteit bij strategische besluitvorming 69 3. Debiasing-strategieën bij strategische besluitvorming 73 3.1. Inleiding 75 3.2. De strategische rol van commissarissen en toezichthouders 76 3.2.1. Governance in historisch perspectief 76 3.2.2. De gedragsmatige functie van corporate governance 79 3.2.3. Strategische betrokkenheid van commissarissen en toezichthouders 81 3.3. Debiasing strategische besluitvorming 84 3.3.1. Inleiding 84 3.3.2. Motiverende debiasing-strategieën 85 3.3.3. Cognitieve debiasing-strategieën 86 3.3.4. Groepsbesluitvorming, beslismodellen en ICT-ondersteuning 88 3.4. De corrigerende rol van de RvC bij strategische besluitvorming 91 4. Opzet van het empirisch onderzoek 95 4.1. Inleiding 97 4.2. Het conceptueel model van het empirisch onderzoek 98 4.3. Selectie van cases 99 4.4. Dataverzameling 101 4.5. Data-analyse 102 5. Casestudie: Overname Eriks NV – Koninklijke Econosto NV 105 5.1. Inleiding 107 5.2. Verantwoording selectie casus 107 5.2.1. Triangulatie bij dataverzameling 108 5.2.2. Het overnamedossier 109 5.2.3. Interviews met leden RvB en RvC 109 5.2.4. Beoordelingskader: begrippen, variabelen en verbanden 110 5.2.5. Leeswijzer casestudie 111 5.3. Context - de groei van een lokaal familiebedrijf tot wereldspeler 112 5.4. De overnamestrategie van Eriks 115 5.5. Corporate Governance bij Eriks 117 5.6. Reconstructie van de overname 120 5.6.1. Strategische intenties 120 5.6.2. Deal-making fase: van hofmakerij tot een vijandige overname 122 5.6.3. Het initiële onderzoek naar de (financiële) haalbaarheid van de overname 124 5.6.4. Opmaak naar een openbaar bod en onderhandelingen met Econosto 125 5.6.5. Het due diligence onderzoek 126 5.6.6. De tweede ronde: van herbezinning naar een vijandig bod op Econosto 128 5.6.7. Uitvoering overnamebesluit en integratie 131 5.6.8. Resumé reconstructie 132 5.7.
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