1 Loss of megafauna and regional discrepancy in status of Europe’s marine fishes 2 3 Paul G. Fernandes1, Gina M. Ralph2, Ana Nieto3, Mariana García Criado3, Paraskevas 4 Vasilakopoulos4, Christos D. Maravelias4, Robin Cook5, Nick Dulvy6, Riley A. Pollom7, 5 Marcelo Kovačić8, David Pollard9, Edward D. Farrell10, Ann-Britt Florin11, Beth A. 6 Polidoro12, Julia M. Lawson6, Pascal Lorance13, Franz Uiblein14, Matthew Craig15, David J. 7 Allen3, Sarah Fowler16, Rachel Walls6, Mia T. Comeros-Raynal2,17, Michael S. Harvey2, 8 Manuel Dureuil18, Manuel J Conceicao Biscoito19, Caroline Pollock3, Jørgen Nielsen20, 9 Sophy R. McCully Phillips21, Jim R. Ellis20, Constantinos Papaconstantinou4, Alen Soldo22, 10 Çetin Keskin23, Simona Clo24, Steen Wilhelm Knudsen25, Luís Gil de Sola26, Fabrizio 11 Serena27, Bruce Collette28, Kjell Nedreaas14, Emilie Stump2,7, Alvaro Abella27, Ning Chao29, 12 Barry C. Russell30, Silvia Garcia31, Pedro Afonso32, Jung Armelle33, Helena Alvarez33, Joao 13 Manuel Mendes Henriques Delgado34 & Kent E. Carpenter35. 1Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, UK. 2IUCN Marine Biodiversity Unit, Department of Biological Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529-0266 USA. 3Global Species Programme & Key Biodiversity Areas, IUCN, Rue Mauverney 28, 1196 Gland, Switzerland. 4 Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), 46.7km Athens-Sounio ave., 19013 Anavyssos, Greece 5Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, 26 Richmond Street, Glasgow, G1 1XH,UK 6 Department of Biology, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada, V5A 1S6 7 Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4 8 Natural History Museum Rijeka, Lorenzov prolaz 1, HR-51000 Rijeka, Croatia 9 The Australian Museum, Six College Street, Sydney, NSW 2010, Australia 10 Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, Co., Galway, Ireland 11 Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skolgatan 6, 742 42 Öregrund, Sweden 12 School of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Arizona State University, Glendale AZ, 85306, USA 13 Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (Ifremer), Nantes cedex 3, France 14 Institute of Marine Research,Nordnesgaten 33, P.O. Box 1870 Nordnes, N-5817 Bergen, Norway 15National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, 8901 La Jolla Shores Drive, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA 16 IUCN Shark Specialist Group, Newbury, UK 17 American Samoa Environmental Protection Agency, Pago Pago, AS 96799 18 Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada 19 Museu de História Natural do Funchal, Rua da Mouraria, 31 9004-546 Funchal, Madeira 20 Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark 21 Centre for Environment, Fisheries & Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Lowestoft, UK 22 Department of Marine Studies, University of Split, Livanjska 5, 21000 Split, Croatia 23 Faculty of Fisheries, University of Istanbul, Ordu St. No: 200, 34470 Laleli, İstanbul, Turkey 24 Medsharks, via Ruggero Fauro 82, 00197 Roma, Italy 25 Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100-DK Copenhagen Ø, Denmark 26 Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Costero de Málaga, 29640 Fuengirola, Spain 27 Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione Ambientale della Toscana, Via Marradi 114, 57100 Livorno, Italy 28 National Marine Fisheries Service Systematics Laboratory, National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC 20560, USA 29 National Museum of Marine Biology and Aquarium, 2 Houwan Road, Checheng, Pingtung, 944, Taiwan 30 Museum & Art Gallery of the Northern Territory, Darwin, NT 0810, Australia 31 Oceana Europe, Leganitos 47, 28013, Madrid, España 32 Institute of Marine Research. Department of Oceanography and Fisheries, University of the Azores, Horta, Portugal 33 APECS, Rue de Liège BP 51151 29211 Brest, France. 34 Secretaria Regional do Ambiente e Recursos Naturais, Rua Dr. Pestana Júnior, nº 6 - 5º Andar 9064-506 Funchal, Madeira, Portugal 14 15 Summary 16 Europe has a long tradition of exploiting marine fish and is embarking on a Blue Growth 17 agenda1 to promote marine economic activity; this, along with climate change2, will increase 18 anthropogenic pressures at sea, threatening the biodiversity of fishes3 and the food security4 19 derived from them. Here we examine the conservation status of 1,020 species of European 20 marine fish and identify factors that contribute to their extinction risk. The ‘megafauna’ 21 amongst them (i.e. those fish species that attain lengths greater than or equal to 1.5 m), are 22 those most at risk: half of these species are threatened with extinction, predominantly sharks, 23 rays, and sturgeons. This analysis was based on the latest International Union for 24 Conservation of Nature (IUCN) European regional Red List of marine fishes5, which was 25 found to be consistent with assessments of fish stocks carried out by fisheries management 26 agencies: no species classified by IUCN as threatened were considered sustainable by these 27 agencies. Further examination of stock assessments revealed a remarkable geographic 28 contrast in the state of commercially fished stocks between northern Europe, where most 29 stocks are not overfished, and the Mediterranean Sea, where almost all stocks are overfished, 30 some by more than an order of magnitude relative to sustainable levels. As Europe proceeds 31 with its Blue Growth agenda, two main issues stand out as needing priority actions in relation 32 to its marine fish: the conservation of marine fish megafauna and the sustainability of 33 Mediterranean fished stocks. 34 35 Main text 36 Marine fish exhibit high biodiversity6 and have been culturally and nutritionally important 37 throughout human history7. Europe, in particular, has a well-documented history of exploiting 35 Department of Biological Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529-0266 USA 38 marine fish populations, written records of which commence in the classical works of ancient 39 Greece. Although this historical exploitation has undoubtedly altered populations8,9 and 40 changed many seascapes10, marine defaunation in the region has not been as great as in 41 terrestrial systems11. However, the use of ocean space and resources is increasing1, the 42 nutritional requirements of an expanding human population are growing12, and marine 43 ecosystems will experience unusually rapid changes in future due to climate change2,13. 44 Consequently there are imminent threats to both European marine biodiversity and fish 45 resources14. It is important, therefore, to assess the threats of extinction to fish species and to 46 ensure consistency in the approach to management by the various agencies involved. 47 We analysed data on the conservation status of 1,020 species of Europe’s marine fishes 48 from the recent IUCN Red List assessments5 to identify characteristics which make Europe’s 49 fishes most susceptible to extinction risk. We then compared the Red List to 112 fish stock 50 assessments (of 28 species) made by intergovernmental agencies charged with providing 51 advice on the exploitation of commercial fish. Previous comparisons of this sort applied 52 criteria under various modelling assumptions15-17 or limited the comparison to biomass 53 reference points18. Of the 1,020 European marine fish species, 8.2% are threatened with 54 extinction. However, 202 species (19.8%) were assessed as Data Deficient (DD), so the 55 proportion of threatened species could lie between 6.6% and 26.4% (see Methods). Of the 67 56 threatened species, 2.1% (21 species) were Critically Endangered (CR), 2.3% (23 species) 57 were Endangered (EN), and 2.3% (23 species) were Vulnerable (VU, see Extended Data 58 Table 1). A further 2.5% (26 species) were considered Near Threatened (NT). The vast 59 majority of species (71.1%, 725 species) were considered to be Least Concern (LC). 60 Extinction risk in European marine fishes falls within the medium to low range compared to 61 terrestrial and aquatic species’ extinction risk in the region5. In the Eastern Tropical Pacific, 62 the only other region of the world where all marine fishes of the continental shelf were 63 assessed, 12% were classified as threatened19. Most species were assessed as threatened 64 based on the reduction in population size (measured over the longer of 10 years or three 65 generations), while some were threatened due to restricted geographic range, combined with 66 a severely fragmented population and a continuing decline. Others were classed as threatened 67 due to their very small population size. Fishing, both in targeted fisheries and as bycatch, 68 was the most common threat to marine fishes, affecting 401 species. Other threats include 69 pollution, coastal development, climate change, energy production and mining5. 70 To assess which characteristics were most important in determining the vulnerability of 71 Europe’s fishes to extinction risk we used a conditional Random Forest (RF)20 model which 72 was able to predict IUCN threat categories correctly in 762 of 818 cases (Extended Data 73 Table 2). Taxonomic class and fish size were the variables of most importance (Fig. 1a). 74 Extinction risk was greater in cartilaginous fishes (sharks, rays and chimaeras) and fishes that 75 attained a large size. A simple classification