Thesis Submitted for the Degree of Ph. D. in the University of London
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THE HYDROLOGICAL EFFECTS OF URILANI SA'f ION IN ME CANON'S BROM: CATCI1LE T, IIAIZLO14IIEW TOI;N, ESSEX. GEORGEEDWARD HOLLIS Thesis submitted for the degree of Ph. D. in the University of London. 1974 2 ABSTRACT The effect of the construction of Harlow, Essex on the hydrology of the Canon's Brook is investigated using pre-recorded r infall and rundff records. Similar hydrological data covering a per od of urban- isation was found for 32 other English catchments. The 8.25 sq. mile clay basin of the Canon's Brook had an average rainfall of 23.9 inches per year during the study period 1950-68; a three year rural period was followed by urban expansion resulting in 16.6% of the catchment having impervious surfaces by 1968. Water yield was increased by urbanisation; a digital IýAAJaI simulation model of the rural catchment revealed increases in/water yield of between 0.3 and 4.9 inches with about 16% of the basin paved. The increase in yield was smallest in wet years and greatest in dry years, confirming the results of a synthesis of data from published papers. Low flows increased with modal flow rising from 2 to 4 or 5 cusecs during the study period. The mean maximum monthly floods increased 220% because of the urbanisation and the frequency of summer floods, particularly those in the range 40-100 cusecs, increased markedly whilst the frequency of winter floods did not alter. The mean unit hydrograph for the 16% paved basin had a peak 4.6 times greater than its rural counterpart and the time of rise and width of the unit hydrograph at 50% of peak flow were 44% and 20% of the rural values respectively. However, large floods of over 150 cusecs, with a return period of perhaps 20 years, were largely unaffected by urbanisation, thus confirming the results of a synthesis of published data which showed that the effect of urbanisation on floods is inversely related to the interval recurrence of the floods. The apparent enlargement of the channel because of the changed flood conditions was not statistically significant. Sediment accumulation in a regulating reservoir gave a rate of erosion of 0.088 inches for per century a period of construction activity which when compared figures with published supports the view that construction activity increases erosion and sediment yields. '3 4 To the memory of GEORGEPERKINS MARSH author of The Earth as Modified by Human Action' (1863) UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON LIBRARY 4 CONTENTS List of figures List of tables N Preface 1. INTRODUCTION 15 2. THE LITERATURE ON. URBANISATION AND HYDROLOGY, 30 Precipitation Snowfall and Snowmelt Evaporation and Evapotranspiration Runoff and Catchment Water Yield Flood Frequency and Magnitude Conclusion 3. DATA SOURCES, DATA COLLECTION AND THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 87 Hydrological Research and the Graduate Student The Choice of a Study of the Canon's Brook Catchment The Instrumentation of Canon's Brook and other Data Sources The Estimation of the Degree of Urbanisation of the Catchment The Methodological and Conceptual Basis 4. THE WATERYIELD AND FLOWREGIMEN OF THE CANON'S BROOK - 151 Double Mass Analysis Trend Analysis Multiple Regression Analysis Digital Simulation Model The Flow Regimen Conclusion S. THE EFFECT OF URBANISATIONON FLOODSIN THE CANON'S BROOK 248 An Empirical Description of Flood Frequency and Magnitude The Flood Hydro raph Conclusion 6. THE SEDIMENT YIELD A?JD Ciiý1NNEL MORPHOLOGYOF THE CANON'S BROOK 289 Review The Channel Morphology of Canon's Brook Rates of Erosion in Canon's Brook: The Reservoir Study Conclusion 7. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS 345 i 5 Figures I 1.1 Urban expansion in the eastern Thames Conservancy area in the period 1929-1972. 2.1 The ratio of urban to rural water yield compared to annual rainfall in Morrison Creek, California, for 1950-1960. (after James, 1965) 2.2 (a) Precipitation and runoff in the urbanising Sharon Creek and a rural Los Trancos Creek Tributary, Palo Alto, California for 1959-65. (after Crippen and Waananen, 1969) (b) Flow regimes for Sharon Creek and a Los Trancos Creek Tributary, Palo Alto, California, showing the Sharon Creek regime before, and after urbanisation. (after Crippen and Waananen, 1969) 2.3 Changes in water yield following urbanisation. 2.4 Changes in water yield following urbanisation as they are affected by rainfall. 2.5 Graph showing variation of flood-frequency ratio with percentage impervious cover. (after Martens, 1968) 2.6 Gauged urban and simulated rural flow for Sharon Creek at Menlo Park for selected periods. (after Crawford and Linsley, 1966) 2.7 The relationship between the ratio of urban to rural flood flows and simulated rural flows for Sharon Creek at Menlo Park. (after Crawford and Linsley, 1966) 2.8 (a) Effect or urbanisation on mean annual flood for a1 square-mile drainage area. (after Leopold, 1968) (b) Flood frequency curves for a1 square-mile drainage basin in various states of urbanisation. (after Leopold, 1968) (c) Increase in number of flows per year equal to or exceeding original channel capacity (1 square mile drainage area), as a ratio to number of overbank flows before urbanisation, for different degrees of urbanisation. (after Leopold, 1968) 2.9 A general relationship between the increase in flood flows and the percentage of the catchment paved for various recurrence intervals. 2.10 The increase in flood flows of various return periods to be expected from the paving of 20% of a basin. 3.1 Map of the Canon's Brook catchment and environs. ýý. 3.2 Geological map and cross section of the Canon's Brook. 6 3.3 The major surface water sewers of the Canon's Brook catchment, the areas drained and the date of completion of the schemes. 3.4 The gauging station on the Canon's Brook. 3.5 Rating curves for the gauging station and the low flow station. 3.6 Diagrams comparing the accuracy of the gauging and low flow stations. 3.7 The duration of records for the rain gauges. 3.8 Double mass plot of annual rainfall at the Eastwick Lodge/ Terlings/Sports Stadium site and Rothamsted. 3.9 The duration of sunshine records for the stations in the Harlow area. 3.10 The intended stages of development of Barlow. (after-Gibberd, 1947) 3.11 The sampling design for the land use analysis. 3.12 The urban areas of the Canon's Brook according to the O. S. one inch maps of 1940 and 1964. 3.13 The land use of the Canon's Brook catchment, 1950-1968. 4.1 Double mass analyses, 1950-1968. (a) Canon's Brook runoff & Canon's Brook rainfall. (b) River Ash runoff & River Rib runoff. (c) Canon's Brook runofL & River Ash runoff. (d) Canon's Brook suamgr (June-Sept) runoff & River Ash summer runoff. (e) Canon's Brook winter (Oct-Mar) runoff & River Ash winter runoff. (f) Canon's Brook spring (Apr-June) runoff & River Ash spring runoff. 4.2 Trend in the summer (Apr-Sept) runoff from the Canon's gook analysed by moving averages. 4.3 Runoff from the Canon's Brook predicted by the multiple fý4.8. regression equation, 4.4 Runoff from the Canon's Brook predicted by the multiple regression equation, 4.5. 4.5 Flow diagram of the computer simulation model. 4.6 The relationship between potential and actual soil moisture deficits. 4.7 Simulation model error analysis. (a) Variation of the variance of the calibrat ion period with degrees changing of error in 'the rainfall input. (b) Variation in the variance of thecalibra ion period with changing degrees of error in the evapotra nspiration input. 7 4.8 The impact of a correction factor for the catch of standard rain gauges on the variance of the model during the calibration period. 4.9 Run 1 of the simulation model. 4.10 The final run of the RURAL model. 4.11 The functioning of the simulation model during the study period expressed as runoff and soil moisture conditions for each land use and groundwater storage. 4.12 Soil moisture conditions for Cardington for 1964-66 calculated by the Ministry of"Agriculture Fisheries and Food. (after Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, 1967) 4.13 Double mass analysis of the annual runoff from the River Ash and the RURALmodel. 4.14 its The increase in annual flow as a result of urbanisation and relationship with rainfall. 4.15 Graphical plot of the results of the URBANmodel simulation and gauged flow of the Canon's Brook 1950-1968. 4.16 Frequency distributions of the residuals for the calibration and prediction periods of the URBANmodel. 4.17 A graphical plot of runoff from a completely grass covered Canon's Brook against the runoff from the same catchment in various stages of urbanisation. 4.18 Accumulated total number of days with Canon's Brook mean daily f lows of :- (a) 2 cusecs. (b) 3 cusecs. (c) 4 cusecs. (d) 5 cusecs. (e) 10 cusecs. (f) 15 cusecs and over. 4.19 The changes in the modal, median and quartile flows of the Brook, 1950-68. 4.20 The changes in the median and quartile flows of the Brook, 1950-68, standardised for annual rainfall variations. 4.21 The estimated and projected median flow of the Canon's Brook and their relationship to rainfall and the percentage of the catchment paved. 8 ... 4.22 Flow duration curves for the Canon's'Brook during a year of average rainfall with three degrees of urban development estimated from a regression analysis of the quartile flows in Table 4.16. 4.23 Simulated rural flow duration curves and gauged flow duration curves for the calibration period and alternate water years from 1953-54 to 1967-68.