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Scanning the Conservation Horizon: a Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

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Scanning the Conservation Horizon: a Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Scanning the Conservation Horizon A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Copyright © 2011 by National Wildlife Federation Suggested citation: Glick, P., B.A. Stein, and N.A. Edelson, editors. 2011. Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, D.C. ISBN 978-0-615-40233-8 Financial support for this publication was provided by the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, Department of Defense Legacy Resource Management Program, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S. Geological Survey, National Park Service, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Note: Financial support does not imply endorsement of this document; use U.S. Government. of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the with U.S. Geological Survey Fundamental Science Practices. This publication has met scientific peer review standards and been approved for publication in accordance Scanning the Conservation Horizon is available online at: www.nwf.org/vulnerabilityguide Cover: Photo of grizzly bears in Alaska by Michio Hoshino/Minden Pictures. National Wildlife Federation 901 E Street, Suite 400 Washington, DC 20004 202.797.6000 www.nwf.org i Scanning the Conservation Horizon A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Scanning the Conservation Horizon A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Edited by Patty Glick, Bruce A. Stein, and Naomi A. Edelson Dan Gifford A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment ii Lazareva Evgeniya Vulnerability Assessment Workgroup Members This guidance document is a product of an expert workgroup on climate change vulnerability assessment convened by the National Wildlife Federation in collaboration with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Naomi Edelson, National Wildlife Federation (Chair) Nancy Green, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Co-Chair) Rocky Beach, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife Molly Cross, Wildlife Conservation Society Carolyn Enquist, The Nature Conservancy Deborah Finch, U.S. Forest Service Hector Galbraith, Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences Evan Girvetz, The Nature Conservancy Patty Glick, National Wildlife Federation John Gross, National Park Service Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech University; ATMOS Research and Consulting Jennie Hoffman, EcoAdapt Doug Inkley, National Wildlife Federation Bruce Jones, U.S. Geological Survey Linda Joyce, U.S. Forest Service Josh Lawler, University of Washington Dennis Ojima, The Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment John O’Leary, Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife Bruce Stein, National Wildlife Federation Bruce Young, NatureServe iii Scanning the Conservation Horizon A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Contents Executive Summary ...........................................................................................................................................................................1 Preface .........................................................................................................................................................................................................4 I. Introduction .........................................................................................................................................................................................6 (Bruce Stein and Patty Glick) Our Rapidly Changing World ................................................................................................................................................................6 Climate Change Adaptation—Putting Vulnerability Assessment in Context ..................................................................8 Why Assess Vulnerability? ..................................................................................................................................................................13 II. Vulnerability Assessment Basics .......................................................................................................................................19 (Bruce Stein, Patty Glick, and Jennie Hoffman) Components of Vulnerability .............................................................................................................................................................19 Components of Biodiversity .............................................................................................................................................................. 22 Setting Goals and Engaging Stakeholders ....................................................................................................................................27 Selecting Assessment Targets ...........................................................................................................................................................33 Space and Time: Selecting the Right Scales ................................................................................................................................ 35 Complexity: More Isn’t Always Better ...........................................................................................................................................37 Embracing Uncertainty ........................................................................................................................................................................38 III. Assessing the Components of Vulnerability......................................................................................................... 39 (Josh Lawler, Carolyn Enquist, and Evan Girvetz) Assessing Sensitivity .............................................................................................................................................................................39 Assessing Exposure ...............................................................................................................................................................................44 Assessing Adaptive Capacity ............................................................................................................................................................. 48 IV. Peering into the Future: Climate and Ecological Models ......................................................................... 51 (Katharine Hayhoe, Bruce Jones, and John Gross) Climate Models ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 51 Ecological Response Models ............................................................................................................................................................. 61 V. Addressing Uncertainty in Vulnerability Assessments.................................................................................. 68 (Linda Joyce, Molly Cross, and Evan Girvetz) The Language of Uncertainty ............................................................................................................................................................ 69 Assessing and Understanding Uncertainty ................................................................................................................................. 72 VI. Using Vulnerability Assessment Results ..................................................................................................................74 (Doug Inkley, Molly Cross, Jennie Hoffman, and John O’Leary) Vulnerability Assessment Outputs ...................................................................................................................................................74 Dealing with Uncertainty in Adaptation Planning ...................................................................................................................79 Looking Ahead .........................................................................................................................................................................................82 A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment iv VII. Case Studies ...................................................................................................................................................................................83 Case Study 1. NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Species in Nevada ............................................85 (Bruce Young, Jennifer Newmark, and Kristin Szabo) Case Study 2. U.S. EPA’s Threatened and Endangered Species Vulnerability Framework ...........................................90 (Hector Galbraith and Jeff Price) Case Study 3. Species Vulnerability Assessment for the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico ......................................... 96 (Deborah M. Finch, Megan M. Friggens, and Karen E. Bagne) Case Study 4. Vulnerability of Massachusetts Fish and Wildlife Habitats to Climate Change .................................103 (Hector Galbraith and John O’Leary) Case Study 5. Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise in the Chesapeake Bay ................................................................................114 (Patty Glick and Michael Wilson) Case Study 6. An Integrated Climate Change Assessment Framework in the Four Corners Region ....................122 (Patrick McCarthy and Carolyn Enquist) 129 (Michael Case and Josh Lawler) Case Study 7. Pacific Northwest Climate Change
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