Fall 2017 Catalyst
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{ Catalyst Volume 17, Fall 2017 Fighting Back against Attacks on Science What Future for US Coal? Climate Change Goes to Court [ first principles ] Catalyst, ISSN 1539-3410, is published quarterly by the Union of Concerned Scientists. Text of articles from Catalyst, Climate Change Goes to Court duly acknowledged, may be reprinted free of charge. Artwork may not be reproduced. © 2017 Union of Concerned Scientists Catalyst is printed on chlorine-free recycled paper with 100% post-consumer content. editorial director Seth Shulman managing editor Bryan Wadsworth production manager Heather Tuttle contributing editor Pamela Worth contributing writer Elliott Negin design Rigsby Hull cover Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead back cover Fisherman’s Wharf, in San Francisco, California. San Francisco County is one of several communities in the state suing fossil Audrey Eyring/UCS fuel companies for climate-related damages to public property. Learn more in our story on p. 18. The Union of Concerned Scientists puts rigorous, independent science to work to solve our planet’s most pressing problems. Joining with people across By Ken Kimmell the country, we combine technical analysis and effective advocacy to create innovative, practical solutions for ourts are forced to take on problems when the legislative and a healthy, safe, and sustainable future. C executive branches’ failure to act creates a crisis. In the United This publication is financed by States today, the federal government has abdicated leadership on contributions from individual members; you can join UCS by sending a the central challenge of our time: global climate change. Given this tax-deductible contribution of $25 or dereliction of duty, will courts now step in to fill the void? more to UCS Development, Two Brattle Square, Several recently filed lawsuits—including ones by San Francisco Cambridge, MA 02138-3780. and Oakland, California—suggest the answer could be yes. And chair the Union of Concerned Scientists is playing a supporting role in Anne Kapuscinski helping to answer one of the most difficult questions courts will face president Kenneth Kimmell as climate litigation unfolds, namely: how to apportion liability for a harm that has so many sources? This is particularly relevant as irrefutable evidence national headquarters Two Brattle Square shows that the fossil fuel industry has been aware for decades that their products Cambridge, MA contribute to climate change, and yet has worked to actively deceive the public. 02138-3780 A newly published paper by UCS scientists Brenda Ekwurzel and Peter Frumhoff, phone (617) 547-5552 among others, attempts to answer liability questions with a robust scientific model email that determines the portion of climate impacts such as temperature increases and sea [email protected] level rise that can be traced back to the major fossil fuel companies (for more, see web www.ucsusa.org “Ideas in Action” on p. 18). From civil rights and same-sex marriage to the regulation of tobacco, we’ve seen how powerful the courts can be in hastening widespread societal changes. So we should take some encouragement that lawyers and climate scientists are joining forces in court. It’s too early to gauge the impact of the climate lawsuits now under way. But these cases are already sparking an overdue debate about the legal responsibility of the fossil fuel industry. With help from UCS, the rapidly emerging field of climate attribution science could help courts answer questions they are likely to face as they adjudicate these issues. Ken Kimmell is president of UCS. Photos: m01229/Creative Commons (Flickr) (San Francisco); Richard Howard (Kenneth Kimmell) [ observations ] WHAT OUR MEMBERS ARE SAYING { Here’s a sampling of recent feedback from the UCS Facebook page (www.facebook.com/ unionofconcernedscientists) and Twitter feed (www.twitter.com/ucsusa) ON FOSSIL FUEL COMPANIES’ ON THE SIDELINING OF SCIENCE [ in this issue ] RESPONSIBILITY FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Denis Davis: John Todd Waterman: The suppression of the science 8 Sidelining Science I don’t blame the average voter for about human-caused climate Since Day One believing the fossil fuel companies’ change grows in the Trump UCS is fighting back against $1 billion-a-year disinformation administration. Just like “cigarettes the administration’s efforts to campaign, which uses some of don’t hurt anyone.” Are we unable weaken laws that protect our the same top PR firms Big Tobacco to learn from our past blunders? health and safety. used. It looks just like legitimate science to anyone who doesn’t Ken Grondell: have access to reputable, peer- Science tries to find the truth of 14 A Dwindling Role reviewed science journals. things. I suspect this administration for Coal finds the truth inconvenient at best. Maggie Freed: And we support them with 2 First Principles @RunnerGirl_Ray: subsidies too! We should support Climate Change The American people are being clean renewable energy, biofuels, Goes to Court threatened by this administration and everything else we can to stop on all fronts. [It is] literally pumping CO2 into the atmosphere supporting policies that will kill us. 3 Observations of the only planet we have! 4 Advances @sok_tc: ON HURRICANES HARVEY, IRMA, So their internal reports reflected AND MARIA the public, peer-reviewed science 12 Inquiry Steve Thompson: of the time? And they kept it quiet? Interview with Another major storm pushing into Yikes! Katharine Hayhoe the United States. I think these Teresa Mynko: will be the new norm as climate 18 Ideas in Action change accelerates. Being aware that we, in fact, have Who’s Responsible for Climate Damages? consumed and benefited from these @E_Mary1019: products is the uncomfortable I’m a very concerned Floridian— 20 Got Science? moment of truth many people are Harvey was devastating and now UCS Helps Interpret the facing. It’s the insult added to the seeing what Irma has turned North Korean Threat injury. I hope that this discomfort into, climate change just can’t be will produce changes in thinking, ignored/denied. consumption, behavior, purchasing, 22 Final Analysis voting, etc. A Defense against Extreme Weather Is Underfoot catalyst fall 2017 | 3 [ advances ] Extreme Weather Hits Home Hurricane Harvey dropped more than 50 inches of rain in some parts of Houston, Texas, inundating infrastructure, damaging homes and businesses, and creating a toxic chemical soup from flooded industrial facilities within city limits. Just days before, President Trump rescinded an Obama-era executive order that discouraged building bridges, roads, and other infrastructure in flood-prone areas. Millions of people in Texas, Louisiana, Scott Pruitt even told CNN it was seems to be drawing widespread public Florida, and Puerto Rico—as well as in “insensitive” to discuss the role climate attention to the growing threat. Our dozens of other now-decimated Caribbean change may have played in strength- recent report When Rising Seas Hit islands—are still reeling from the devasta- ening these hurricanes. Needless to Home, featured on the cover of the tion wrought by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, say, we strongly disagree with Scott summer issue of Catalyst, received and Maria. As of this writing, millions Pruitt. Only by accepting the scientific extensive coverage in the media: more are still without power, and US cost esti- evidence about human-caused climate than 500 stories, including some 200 mates for the three storms run well into impacts can we fully prepare for and on radio and television news. The anal- the hundreds of billions of dollars. Our mitigate what is to come. ysis made two appearances on the CNN thoughts are with all those affected as For years, the Union of Concerned homepage, Bloomberg used the down- Catalyst goes to press. Scientists has been working hard to loadable data to design maps to comple- One of the more painful aspects of help communities become aware of— ment its coverage, and the analysis was the recent spate of extreme weather is and prepare for—the threat posed by prominently featured in many outlets how blatantly our federal officials—and human-made climate change. To name including Scientific American, Univision, many state leaders—disregarded warn- just one example, the 2015 UCS report and the Washington Post—drawing ings and evidence-based analysis about Lights Out? showed that storm surge more than 121,500 views on the UCS how climate change and rising sea levels from a Category 3 hurricane could website in July alone. increase the threats posed by these kinds expose nearly 40 electric substations The main lesson from the report of storms. In one well-reported example, in Miami and southeastern Florida to is that hundreds of coastal communi- just 10 days before Harvey struck, the flooding. We urged action to harden ties are at risk from rising seas—even Trump administration rescinded an these substations and avoid long power without storm surge—and the time to Obama-era executive order that discour- outages after such a storm. prepare is now. Communities rebuilding aged building in flood-prone areas. Thankfully, despite the many in the aftermath of this season’s hurri- As Irma worked its way toward the climate change deniers now leading canes must bear these new risks promi- Florida coastline, EPA Administrator federal agencies, recent UCS work nently in mind. 4 | union of concerned scientists Photos: REUTERS/Richard Carson (Houston); monkeybusinessimages/iStock (gas pump); Audrey Eyring/UCS (UCS store) Announcing: A New Analysis Reveals Who Benefits Most Way for All to Stand from Fuel Economy Standards Up for Science Under President Trump, the EPA and the an average of 2 percent of their income At UCS, we’ve started a new “Science US Department of Transportation have from 1980 to 2014—a significant amount Champions” initiative to help our chosen to reopen a review of fuel economy for millions of Americans.