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Climate Impact Assessment for the City of Houston

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Climate Impact Assessment for the City of Houston ATMOS Research & Consulting ANNE STONER and KATHARINE HAYHOE Climate Impact Assessment for the City of Houston AUGUST 2020 Image sources: Houston Chronicle, flooding during Hurricane Harvey (left), Jose Velasquez/EyeEm/Getty Images (right) Houston’s Climate Future | 2 Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................................................. 3 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................................................. 4 PREFACE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 5 ABOUT THIS ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................................................................ 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................................ 7 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................................... 9 ONE. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE ....................................................................................................9 TWO. OBSERVED CHANGES IN THE U.S. AND GULF COAST ........................................................................................................... 12 THREE. PROJECTED FUTURE CHANGES IN THE U.S. AND GULF COAST REGION ...................................................................... 17 CLIMATE TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS ....................................................................................................................... 21 ONE. PROJECTED CHANGES IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE, THE LENGTH OF SUMMER, AND HEATING AND COOLING DEGREE-DAYS .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 TWO. CHANGES IN EXTREME TEMPERATURES ................................................................................................................................ 31 THREE. CHANGES IN ANNUAL AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AND DRY DAYS ..................................................................... 37 FOUR. CHANGES IN EXTREME PRECIPITATION ................................................................................................................................ 42 FIVE. REGIONAL VARIABILITY ............................................................................................................................................................. 46 SIX. CONCLUSIONS AND SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................................... 48 DATA, MODELS, AND METHODS .................................................................................................................................. 52 ONE. OBSERVED DATA .......................................................................................................................................................................... 52 TWO. CLIMATE INDICATORS ................................................................................................................................................................ 52 THREE. FUTURE SCENARIOS ............................................................................................................................................................... 54 FOUR. GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS AND EMPIRICAL-STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING ................................................................. 55 FIVE. SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN FUTURE PROJECTIONS ........................................................................................................ 58 PRODUCTS............................................................................................................................................................................ 61 ONE. DAILY STATION-BASED CLIMATE PROJECTIONS - DATA ..................................................................................................... 61 TWO. ANNUAL STATION-BASED CLIMATE INDICATORS - DATA .................................................................................................. 61 THREE. MULTI-MODEL MEAN AND RANGES OF STATION-BASED CLIMATE INDICATORS FOR THE HIGHER AND LOWER FUTURE SCENARIOS – DATA AND TIME SERIES PLOTS ................................................................................................................... 61 APPENDICES ........................................................................................................................................................................ 64 APPENDIX A: CLIMATE INDICATOR TIME SERIES FOR WEATHER STATIONS ............................................................................. 64 APPENDIX B: CLIMATE INDICATOR BAR CHARTS FOR WEATHER STATIONS ............................................................................. 64 APPENDIX C: CLIMATE INDICATOR BAR CHARTS FOR WEATHER STATIONS – RETURN FREQUENCY OF THE 24-HOUR 100-YEAR PRECIPITATION EVENT ...................................................................................................................................................... 64 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................................................................... 65 Houston’s Climate Future | 3 List of Figures Figure 1 Human and natural factors influencing Earth’s climate ............................................... 11 Figure 2 Historical billion dollar weather and climate disasters ................................................ 12 Figure 3 Observed changes in US annual, winter, and summer temperature ........................... 14 Figure 4 Observed changes in US annual and seasonal precipitation ........................................ 15 Figure 5 Observed local relative sea level trends .......................................................................... 16 Figure 6 Projected changes in US annual average temperatures ................................................ 17 Figure 7 Projected change in total seasonal precipitation ........................................................... 18 Figure 8 Projected sea level in the Houston area under 4°C (7.2°F) and 2°C (3.6°F) of global warming ...................................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 9 Projections in the timing of the first day, the last day, and the length of summer (time series) ................................................................................................................................ 25 Figure 10 Projections in the timing of the first day, the last day, and the length of summer (bar charts) ................................................................................................................................. 26 Figure 11 Projections in cooling degree days (time series) .......................................................... 27 Figure 12 Projections in cooling degree days (bar charts) ........................................................... 28 Figure 13 Projections in heating degree days (time series) ......................................................... 29 Figure 14 Projections in heating degree days (bar charts) ........................................................... 30 Figure 15 Projections in days above 100°F and nights above 80°F (time series) ....................... 33 Figure 16 Projections in days above 100°F and nights above 80°F (bar charts) ........................ 34 Figure 17 Projections in temperature of the hottest day and week, and length of the longest heatwave (time series)............................................................................................................... 35 Figure 18 Projections in temperature of the hottest day and week, and length of the longest heatwave (bar charts) ................................................................................................................ 36 Figure 19 Projections in annual precipitation and number of dry days (time series) ............. 38 Figure 20 Projections in annual precipitation and number of dry days (bar charts)............... 39 Figure 21 Projections in seasonal precipitation (time series) ...................................................... 40 Figure 22 Projections in seasonal precipitation (bar charts) ....................................................... 41 Figure 23 Projections in the wettest 3-day precipitation amounts and the number of events per year above 4 inches (time series) ..................................................................................... 44 Figure 24 Projections in the wettest 3-day precipitation amounts and the number of events per year above 4 inches (bar charts) ....................................................................................... 45 Figure 25 Projections in the 12-month SPEI drought index ......................................................... 46 Figure 26 Map of the 11 weather stations .....................................................................................
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