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IDP Situation Monitoring Initiative (ISMI) Quarterly Trends Analysis of Displacement in North-West Syria, October - December 2018

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IDP Situation Monitoring Initiative (ISMI) Quarterly Trends Analysis of Displacement in North-West Syria, October - December 2018 IDP Situation Monitoring Initiative (ISMI) Quarterly Trends Analysis of Displacement in north-west Syria, October - December 2018 Key Findings1 69,241 About ISMI & This Report 46,659 The IDP Situation Monitoring Initiative (ISMI) is an initiative of the Camp Communities Assessed: 7572 Coordination and Camp Management (CCCM) Cluster, implemented by 29,466 25,291 REACH and supported by cluster members. Total IDP Arrivals:3,4 76,1255 Following a baseline assessment conducted at the end of 2016, weekly, bi-weekly and now monthly data collection cycles have been initiated. This 6 factsheet presents an overview of reported inward and outward movements Total IDP Departures: 94,532 Idleb and surrounding areas Northern Aleppo region of IDPs from 1 October to 31 December 2018. Such displacements were IDP arrivals IDP departures reported in 757 communities in sub-districts monitored by ISMI. ISMI monitoring coverage varies over time depending on access. Displacements are identified through an extensive key informant (KI) network, either from alerts initiated by KIs or from follow-up by enumerators. At least two KIs Summary of Findings Major Developments are interviewed in each assessed community, and collected information is 7 further triangulated through other sources, including CCCM member data Idleb and Surrounding Areas • Following a reduction in clashes and hostilities in October, and humanitarian updates. This approach allows for regular updates on IDP assessed communities in Idleb and surrounding areas witnessed movements at the community level across sub-districts monitored by ISMI Assessed communities in Idleb and surrounding areas a total number of 11,002 reported IDP arrivals, marking a 78% in northern Syria. witnessed a total of 46,659 IDP arrivals between 1 October and decreased compared to September (50,917).12 The data used for this product was collected, triangulated and verified based 31 December 2018. The majority (81%) of IDP arrivals came from • With November, however, came a renewal in hostilities between on submissions from ISMI’s network and select CCCM cluster members elsewhere in the region, driven predominantly by hostilities between GoS-allied forces and AOGs in several areas considered part following the ISMI methodology. Due to differences in methodology and Government of Syria (GoS)-allied forces and armed opposition coverage, figures presented in this output may differ from official CCCM of the announced DMZ,13,14 along with a significant increase in groups (AOGs) along an announced demilitarised zone (DMZ).8,9 Cluster or UNHCR data. All data is for humanitarian use only. aerial bombardments on southern Idleb and western Aleppo Throughout the reporting period, the region also witnessed a total of Coverage, October - December 2018 governorates.15 69,241 IDP departures,10 most of whom left assessed communities in !!!! ! !!!!!!! !!!! !!! !!!!! !! !! !! ! !!!! !!!!!!! !! !!! !!!!!!! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ! !!!!! !! ! ! ! • Large-scale security operations combined with ongoing !!!!!!! !!!!! ! ! ! ! !!! !!! ! ! !! !!!! ! !!! !! !! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! ! ! !! !! ! !! ! ! !!!!! !!!!! !!!!!! ! ! !!! ! !!!!!!! !! !! ! !! !!!!! ! !! !!! !!!!!!! !! !!!! ! !! !!! ! ! ! !! !!!!! ! ! !! !! ! !!!!!!!!!!! ! ! !!!!! ! !!!!!! !!! ! ! !!! ! October (9,888). Overall, on a sub-district level, Ma’arrat An Nu’man !! !!!!! ! ! !! !! Al-Hasakeh !!! ! ! !!! ! ! !!! !!!!! !! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!! !! !!! !! ! ! inter-AOG tensions, likely contributed to many of the reported ! ! !!!! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! !!! !!! ! !!!! Aleppo ! !! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! !!! ! !!!! !!!! !! !!! ! !!! ! ! !!!!!! ! ! !! had the highest number of reported IDP arrivals (7,587), while Dana ! !! !! !! !! !! !!!! Ar-Raqqa ! ! ! !!!! !!!! !!!!! !!! ! ! ! !!! !!!!! !!!!! ! ! ! 16 ! !!! ! !!!! !!!!!!!! ! ! ! !! !!! ! !!! ! !!!!!! !!!!! !!!! ! ! !!!!!!!!! !!!! ! !!! ! I!d!le! !b!! ! ! ! !! displacements in the northern Aleppo region in November. !!!! !! !! !!!!! ! !! ! ! !!!!!!! !!! ! ! ! ! !! !!!!!!! !! !! ! !!!! ! ! ! ! !!! ! ! Lattakia !! !! ! !! ! Deir-ez-Zor had the highest number of reported IDP departures (16,119). !! ! ! • In December, assessed communities in Idleb and surrounding Hama Tartous Northern Aleppo Region11 areas were severely affected by winter weather, which brought Homs cold temperatures, rainstorms and flooding.17,18 In parallel, assessed communities in the northern Aleppo region • In parallel, assessed communities in the northern Aleppo region witnessed 29,466 IDP arrivals. More than one third (35%) of IDPs Damascus Rural Damascus also saw high numbers of IDPs arriving from Menbij district in Quneitra reportedly arrived from within the region. KIs reported winterisation, Dar'a the north-east of the governorate, following concerns around As-Sweida safety and security, in addition to shelter as IDPs’ top priority needs 19 potential military developments in the area. ! upon arrival to assessed communities. Sub-districts monitored by ISMI Sub-districts not monitored Assessed communities 1 OVERVIEW Figure 1: Timeline of key events, October - December 2018 Renewed hostilities between Significant increase in aerial Severe rainstorms and flooding Reduction in clashes witnessed Clashes between GoS-allied Concerns around potential GoS-allied forces and AOGs in bombardments on southern affect north-eastern Idleb in several areas considered part forces and AOGs, as well as military developments in Menbij several areas considered part of Idleb and western Aleppo and south-western Aleppo of the announced DMZ12 inter-AOG violence continue16 district19 the announced DMZ13,14 governorates15 governorates18 Throughout October October - November Throughout November Throughout December Second half of December End of December Maps 1-3: IDP arrivals to assessed communities in sub-districts monitored by ISMI, October - December 2018 OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER Total IDP arrivals: 21,070 Total IDP arrivals: 25,041 Total IDP arrivals: 30,014 Ü TTUURRKKEEYY Ü TTUURRKKEEYY Ü TTUURRKKEEYY Menbij Afrin Al Bab Dana ALEPPO ALEPPO ALEPPO IDLEB IDLEB Idleb Ariha Ariha IDLEB Ma'arrat An Ehsem Ma'arrat Nu'man Kafr Kafr An Nu'man Ma'arrat An LATTAKIA LATTAKIA Nobol Nobol Heish Nu'man Heish LATTAKIA Tamanaah Kafr HAMA HAMA HAMA Zeita Percentage of total IDP Most common sub-districts Administrative Major displacements Percentage of total IDP Most common sub-districts Administrative Major displacements Percentage of total IDP Most common sub-districts Administrative Major displacements arrivals by sub-district of departure ( >1,000 IDP boundaries ( >550 IDPs ) arrivals by sub-district of departure ( >1,000 IDP boundaries ( >1,000 IDPs ) arrivals by sub-district of departure ( >1,100 IDP boundaries ( >1,600 IDPs ) (1/10/18 - 31/10/18) arrivals from sub-district) (1/11/18 - 30/11/18) arrivals from sub-district) (1/12/18 - 31/12/18) arrivals from sub-district) 0.1% - 1.5% Outward 0.1% - 1.0% Outward 0.1% - 1.0% OutwarAdr-Rastan Governorate External Governorate External Governorate External 1.6% - 3.0% displacement 1.1% - 4.5% displacement HOMS 1.1% - 2.0% TdailsdpulacTeamlbeisneth HOMS 3.1% - 5.5% TalduInwaTardlb i&se houtward 4.6% - 9.0% Inward & outward 2.1% - 4.0% Inward & outward HSOubdMistricSt Internal Sub-district Internal Sub-district Internal 5.6% - 9.5% displacement 9.1% - 21.7% displacement 4.1% - 10.9% displacement Figure 2: Timeline of new IDP arrivals to and IDP departures from communities assessed by ISMI, October - December 2018 50,000 IDP arrivals IDP departures 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1 - 31 October 1 - 30 November 1 - 31 December 2 IDP arrivals to Idleb and surrounding areas, likely due to continued clashes between parties involved in the IDLEB & SURROUNDING AREAS conflict. In November, 16,417 (35%) IDP arrivals were reported in assessed communities, many of whom were displaced due to renewed clashes between GoS-allied forces and AOGs, in addition to an increase Map 4: Coverage in Idleb and surrounding areas, October - December 2018 in aerial bombardments on southern Idleb and western Aleppo governorates. In December, IDP arrivals ! increased by 17% compared to November with a total of 19,240 (41%) IDP arrivals. This can be explained by ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Sub-districts monitored by ISMI TURKEY ! ! ! ! ! ! an intensification of inter-AOG hostilities, as well as severe winter weather, which brought cold temperatures, ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Communities ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Sub-districts not monitored ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! rainstorms and flooding to large areas of north-eastern Idleb and south-western Aleppo governorates. ! ! ! ! ! ! Assessed: ! ! ! ! ! Assessed communities ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Figure 3: Timeline of IDP arrivals to assessed communities in Idleb and surrounding areas, October ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! ! 346 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! - December 2018 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! IDP Arrivals: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !IDLEB! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ALEPPO ! ! 19,240 ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 16,417 ! ! 46,659 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 11,002 ! IDP Departures: ! ! ! ! ! ! LATTAKIA ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 69,241 ! HAMA ! ! ! ! ! ! 1 - 31 October 1 - 30 November 1 - 31 December IDP Arrivals Throughout the reporting period, the
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