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Nuclear Weapon States: NW Programmes, Military Doctrines and Nonproliferation

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Nuclear Weapon States: NW Programmes, Military Doctrines and Nonproliferation NWS Nuclear Weapon States: NW Programmes, Military Doctrines and Nonproliferation Ildar A. Akhtamzyan, Ph.D, Associate Professor of MGIMO-University 2 3 4 Main Points 1. Nuclear Weapon States: definition, NW use and its consequences, arms race cost, development of NW in the US and the SU 2. NW programme of the UK, political aspects 3. NW of France, political aspects 4. NW of China, political aspects 5 1. Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) NWS Definition (NPT Article IX.3) and its Political Meaning Development of NW in the US and the SU Nuclear Arms Race: Dynamics and Cost NW Deployment NW Use and Its Consequences, Nuclear Night and Nuclear Winter Range of NW as a Criterion for Its Classification 6 The Mightiest Man- Made NonNuclear Explosion: TNT 2,67-2,7 kiloton 7 Halifax Explosion: December 6, 1917 8 ―A Cosmic Roll of the Dice!‖ 1. Hiroshima and Nagasaki – consequences of limited NW use 2. Practical parallels to nuclear catastrophe: nonnuclear explosions, fire storms, eruptions and explosions of volcanoes, sand storms on the Mars Mathematical models: nuclear night and nuclear winter 9 Soviet Pamphlet, April 1962 10 12 Krakatau, August 26-27, 1883 Anak Krakatau: since June 11, 1925 13 Tambora, April 5, 1815 14 Development of U-Bomb in Nazi Germany 15 Werner Heisenberg December 6, 1939: The Possibility of Getting Energy By Splitting Uranium 16 Otto Hahn and Werner Heisenberg Otto Hahn - German Physicist, 1945 Nobel Prize Winner Werner Heisenberg, German Physicist, 1932 Nobel Prize Winner , one of the Project’s Main Coordinators 17 Dr Meitner gets excited 18 Walther Bohte (1891-1957) – shared the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1954 with Max Born 19 US Nuclear Weapons: the Brains A-Bomb – Leslie R. Groves, J. Robert Oppenheimer H-Bomb – Stanislaw Ulam, Edward Teller, Richard Garwin 25 Einstein’s Letter to Roosevelt, August 2, 1939 27 Roosevelt’s Reply 28 J. Robert Oppenheimer Роберт Оппенгеймер – Los-Alamos Laboratory Director (1942- October 1945) 30 31 H-Bomb (thermonuclear weapons) Edward Teller – «H-Bomb Father» 32 33 US nuclear testing sites 34 ―Gadget‖ on the tower 35 General Groves’ Report of July 18, 1945 on the first nuclear explosion: ―And what an explosion!‖ 36 Harry S. Truman (in 1953) on Stalin’s reaction in July 1945 in Potsdam: «I’m sure he did not understand its significance» The Order to Bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki 38 ―Merciful‖ decision to bomb Hiroshima I reaffirm the late President Roosevelt’s decision that Japan must surrender unconditionally… If we end this war with one quick blow it will save countless thousands of American boys and will be more merciful than the devastation of Japan. We will have to use the Atom bomb! 39 The United States – nine types of bombs and warheads: B83 bombs Nuclear Warheads in Storage Bangor, WA: 2364 Warren AFB, WY: 39 US Nukes Warren AFB, CO: 46 Deployment, 2006 Warren AFB, NE: 85 Malmstrom AFB, MT: 535 Minot AFB, ND: 1254 Whiteman AFB, MO: 136 Nellis AFB, NV: 902 Kirtland AFB, NM: 1914 Barksdale AFB, LA: 940 Kings Bay, GA: 1364 +Pantex Plant, TX: several warhead types 42 43 Soviet Nuclear Weapons: Who Did It A-Bomb – Igor Kurchatov (Игорь Курчатов), Yuli Khariton (Юлий Харитон), Boris Vannikov (Борис Ванников), Avraami Zavenyagin (Авраамий Завенягин) H-Bomb – Andrey Saharov (Андрей Сахаров), Юлий Харитон, Yakov Zeldovich (Яков Зельдович) 44 Фрагмент фрески на вокзале (Екатеринбург). В центре Курчатов, Берия, Королѐв. На фоне — Белоярская АЭС. Справа — падающий Пауэрс Igor Kurchatov (also with a beard) 46 Boris Vannikov, Avraami Zavenyagin Yuli Khariton Igor Kurchatov and Klaus Fuchs 49 Klaus Fuchs and a Sketch of Design in his 1948 Report 50 Ukas of October 29, 1949 г.: Heroes of Socialist Labour 1. Курчатов Игорь Васильевич 2. Харитон Юлий Борисович 3. Завенягин Авраамий Павлович 4. Зельдович Яков Борисович 5. Ванников Борис Львович 6. Щѐлкин Кирилл Иванович 7. Флѐров Георгий Николаевич 8. Духов Николай Леонидович 51 Letter of Appreciation, November 1949 52 Ukas of June 15, 1996: Heroes of Russia 1. Барковский Владимир Борисович 2. Квасников Леонид Романович 3. Феклисов Александр Семѐнович 4. Яцков Анатолий Антонович 5. Коэн Леонтина (6. Коэн Моррис – Герой России с 1995 г.) 53 What Yuli Khariton wanted from the first A- Bomb 54 The First Soviet Nuclear test – August 29, 1949 The First Soviet H- Bomb 57 How many nukes are there? 128000 nukes produced in the NWS over 1945-2000 USA: 70000 nukes of 65 types USSR/Russia: 55000 nukes UK: 1200 nukes France: 1260 nukes China: 750 nukes (After NRDC Nuclear Notebook) 59 Nuclear Arms Race годы США СССР Создание и испытание первой атомной бомбы 1945 1949 Начало развѐртывания тяжѐлых бомбардировщиков 1948 1955 Первый взрыв термоядерной бомбы (устройства) 1952 1953 (устройство (бомба) Первое испытание межконтинентальной ракеты 1958) 1957 Начало развѐртывания межконтинентальных ракет 1959 1960 Начало развѐртывания АПЛ с баллистическими 1960 1963 Началоракетами развѐртывания баллистических ракет с РГЧ 1970 1975 НачалоИН развѐртывания крылатых ракет «воздух-земля» 1980 1984 большой дальности Начало развѐртывания крылатых ракет морского 1982 1984 базирования большой дальности Начало развѐртывания крылатых ракет наземного 1983 базирования большой дальности Начало развѐртывания мобильных баллистических 60 1985 ракет US Nukes – Cost. 5,500 Billion USD 61 US Nukes Deployment US Nukes are deployed in 5 states: Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey, FRG In Cold War years US Nukes were deployed in at least 12 states more (Canada, Cuba, Denmark, France, Greece, Japan, Maroc, the Philippines, ROK, Spain, Taiwan-China, the UK) - 38 types 62 US Nukes Worldwide 63 A Model of a New York Explosion 300 Nuclear Strikes – Death of NATO’s 25% Population (189 Million) 66 368 Nuclear Strikes – Death of 25% of China’s Population (320 Million) 67 How Much is Enough? 68 SIPRI in June 2013 Eight Nuclear Weapon States possessed in 2013 4400 deployed nukes (without TNF): the U.S. (2150), Russia (1800), the UK (160), France (290), China, as well as India, Pakistan and Israel. 69 2. The UK Nukes: History 1. Quebec Agreement (August 1943), the terms 2. GEN-75 (1945) - GEN-163 (1947) 3. January 7, 1948 Agreement 4. US Deployments in the UK 5. The First Nuclear Test, October 3, 1952 (Plutonium Bomb) "we have got to have this thing over here whatever it costs... we have got to have bloody Union Jack on top of it..." Words by the then Foreign Secretary, Ernest Bevin, in 1946 70 March 1940 Memorandum Рудольф Пайерлс, немецкий физик Two reports of Maud Committee in July 1945: The First one, On the Use of Uranium for a Bomb stated that the new weapon could be produced by the end of 1943. The last paragraph said: '...the scheme for a uranium bomb is practicable and likely to lead to decisive results in the war'. Отто Фриш, австрийский физик 71 Nukes of the UK: the Brains A-Bomb: William G. Penney, John Cockroft, Christopher Hinton H-Bomb: William Cook, Bryan Taylor, John Corner, Keith Roberts John Cockroft 72 William Penney Design of the first weapon ( a plutonium bomb) began in June 1947 at Fort Halstead in Kent under William Penney. 73 Monte Bello Islands, October 3, 1952 74 The First UK Test, October 3, 1952 HMS Plym (in August 1952) 75 Monte Bello Islands 76 UK underground test equipment in Nevada The biggest UK test, April 28, 1958 (Christmas Islands, 3 Mt) 77 UK Nukes: Structure 1. 1955 - ―Valiant‖ Bombers 2. 1957 – Heavy Bombers ―Vulcan‖, 1958 - ―Victor‖ 3. 1967 - SLBMs ―Polaris‖ on SSBN ―Resolution‖, modernisation in the 1980s (―Polaris 3TK‖) 4. 1993 - SLBMs ―Trident D5‖, SSBNs ―Vanguard‖ ―Valiant‖ drops a bomb ―The Blue Danube‖ 78 The first British SSBN ―Dreadnought‖, November 1962 79 SLBM «Trident» 80 SSBN «Vengence» 81 SSBN «Vanguard» 82 British NW Use Concepts 1. Veto Right until January 1948 2. ―Massive retaliation‖ Doctrine in the 1950s 3. ―Flexible response‖ in the 1960s 4. SIOP Participation since 1960s 5. Mid 1980s – possibility of the limited nuclear war 83 3. Nukes of France: history 1. Peaceful R&D (CEA, Law of 1952) 2. Ailleret Report, Vietnam Defeat, December 26 1954 Decision 3. February 13, 1960 – first nuclear test Фредерик Жолио- Франсуа Кюри - Перрен - французский физик, лауреат французский Нобелевской физик премии 1934 г. 84 Nukes of France: the Brains A-Bomb: Pierre Guillaumat, Charles Ailleret, Yves Rocard H-Bomb: Michel Carayol, Pierre Billaud, Luc Dagens 85 ЯО Франции: эволюция структуры 1. 1960s: ―Mirage IV‖ bombers, modernised in mid 1970s 2. Since 1971 IRBMs S-2 3. 1972 - SLBMs М1 - М2 - М4 - М20 on ―Redoutable‖ SSBNs 5. 1990s: SSBN ―Triomphan‖, ―Mirage - 2000N, IRBMs S-4 86 Mururoa 87 Современное состояние СЯС Франции 1. 1996 – giving up of IRBMs and land-based TNF 2. Only SLBMs are to remain intact (М-51) 88 The Fourth SSBN «Triomphan» – «Le Terrible» with M51 4. Nukes of China: history 1. Cooperation with USSR till 1959 2. The first test on October 16, 1964 3. 1970 - IRBM ―DF-1‖, in 1980s - ―DF-2‖ and ―DF-2-1‖ 5. 1980 - ICBM ―DF-5‖, 1981 - SSBN «Xia» with SLBMs ―JL-1‖(«Juilan-1») 90 Nukes of China: the Brains A-Bomb: Nie Rongzhen, Liu Jie, Deng Jiaxian H-Bomb: Deng Jiaxian, Yu Min, Peng Huanwu Пэн Хуань-у Дэн Цзя-сянь - 91 October 16, 1964 92 Lop Nur «496» 93 The First Nuclear test in China 94 The First Chinese H-Bomb Test June 17, 1967 95 The Second Artillery Corps of the Chinese Army 120,000 men (4% of the Armed Forces), 12-15% of the budget Headquarters in Qinghe 96 «Chinese Nuclear Potential» by Viktor Yesin (July 2012) The aggregate number is 1600 to 1800 The Chinese plants could have produced up to 40 tons of weapon-grade U and up to 10 tons of weapon-grade Pu, which makes China able to produce up to 3600 nukes! 97 БР Китая CSS- CSS CSS- CSS DF- U.S.
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