Estimating Continuous Local and Regional Historical Populations from Marriage Records
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Estimating continuous local and regional historical populations from marriage records. A case study in the Barcelona area, 1451-1860 Anna Cabré ([email protected]) Joana Maria Pujades ([email protected]) Miquel Valls ([email protected]) Abstract Introduction Ancient censuses are scarce or non-existent in most countries before the 19th century. Estimating past populations is thus a necessity for many historical research purposes. The Barcelona Historical Marriage Database (BHMD), built through the on-going ERC Project Five Centuries of Marriages, provides a continuous series of marriages for 90 parishes in Barcelona and its surrounding area that can be used in population estimates under the assumption that marriage rates are constant in time and space in the limits of our study. The BHMD gathers the information on over 610.000 marriages celebrated in over 250 parishes of Diocese of Barcelona between 1451 and 1905. We will refer as Barcelona area the 90 parishes of the Oficialitat de Barcelona, representing 90% of the total population and offering reliable continuous data from 1481 to circa 1880. Data after 1880 need revision to assert the coverage. The following graph shows the chronology of marriages in the Barcelona area. Assuming constant marriage rate, the population trend would look exactly the same. Vertical lines show the moments at which censuses and household censuses were taken. Graph 1. Marriages, 1450-1880 Census 1900 6.000 Census 1887 Census 1877 5.000 Census 1860 4.000 Census 1857 3.000 Census 1787 2.000 Household Household Household Census 1717 Census 1497 Census 1553 1.000 0 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 In the present contribution our goals are three: a) discussing the ideal fixed marriage rate to be used as a tool for estimating populations; b) estimating the yearly populations of each of the 90 parishes from 1720 to 1860; c) and producing continuous population estimates for the city of Barcelona and for the whole Catalonia since 1451. 1. Discussing marriage rates in time and space and picking the convenient technical fixed marriage rate Observed marriage rates have been calculated for the area using the population figures from the censuses of 1787 and 1860. These rates have been applied then to the average yearly marriages in each parish; the populations so estimated have been compared to their counterparts in the Census, showing striking coincidence (see Graphs 2). Thus, the assumption of spatial homogeneity has been easily accepted. As for time variations, rates calculated at every census from 1787 to 1970 (not shown here) show that marriage rates do not sensibly differ from 9 per thousand, with no visible time-trend until 1970, when it drops dramatically. We discarded the idea of having an marriage rate moving with time and decided in favor of a 9 per thousand fixed marriage rate to be used for all estimates. By marriage rate we understand the average number of yearly marriages in a given population related to de average population or the population at the middle of the year. Marriages of reference include all marriages, irrespectively of former marriage status of the spouses. Contrary to expected rates calculated on the basis of never-married persons, besides being more complex to calculate, showed more fluctuations and worse estimating properties. In this case, the simpler was the better. Graph 2 Registered Population and Estimated Population. Registered Population and Estimated Registered Population and Estimated Population, 1783-1792 Population, 1859 - 1861 5000 16000 Terrassa 14000 4000 Terrassa Sabadell 12000 Badalona Badalona 3000 10000 Sabadell Population Population 8000 Vilassar 2000 6000 Estimated Estimated St Boi Llob. 4000 1000 St Feliu Llob. 2000 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 Registered Population Registered Population 2. Estimation of local populations, 1720-1860 All local populations have been estimated from 1720 to 1860, because parish assignation was unclear before 1720 and frequent censuses were available after 1860. Time-trends been analyzed in search of consistency. Results are shown in maps and graphs. Graph 3 show the time trends in the city of Barcelona and in the rest of the area. Moment fluctuations are consistent, as well as relative growth. Graph 3. Estimated Population. Marriage rate 9 per thousand. 5 years moving average 1730 – 1860 300.000 2.500 250.000 2.000 200.000 1.500 estimada 150.000 1.000 100.000 Matrimonios Población 50.000 500 0 0 1732 1739 1746 1753 1760 1767 1774 1781 1788 1795 1802 1809 1816 1823 1830 1837 1844 1851 1858 Barcelona Resto Oficialidad Graphs 4 and 5 show, as a sample, the relative populations sizes of the municipalities at the beginning and the end of the period under study. Maps have been produced for every 5 year period and will be shown in the presentation at EPC as a moving sequence, where the effects of the invasion by the Napoleon’s armies in 1808 appear very clearly, consistent in their local differences with well documented historical facts. The effects of protoindustrialization and industrialization are also clearly visible. This completely new information will be very useful in geographical and urban studies about the emergence of the contemporaneous metropolitan city. Sabadell Terrassa Sabadell Mataró Badalona Popul Graph 6.Registered be availablethroughourmethod. data forthesemunicipalitiesandmake Mataró areeasilyperceived.Thedotsin has beenpointedabove,theverydestructive Terrassa, SabadellandMataró,thelargestin Graph 6showsthecontinuouspopulationes Graph 4and5.P Martorell 10000 15000 20000 25000 10000 15000 20000 25000 5000 5000 Castelldefels 0 0 Terrassa 1717 1717 1725 1725 1733 1733 Estimated 1741 Estimated 1741 1749 1749 1757 1757 1735 Population Population 1765 Population 1765 1773 1773 1781 1781 1789 1789 1797 1797 Sabadell 1805 1805 1813 1813 Registered Registered 1821 1821 Barcelona 1829 1829 Badalona 1837 1837 opulation 1735and1855 Population 1845 Population 1845 1853 1853 ation andEstimatedP 1861 1861 1869 1869 1877 1877 Mataró 1885 1885 1893 1893 Martorell Castelldefels evident howmuchmoreinformationcan Terrassa 10000 15000 20000 25000 10000 15000 20000 25000 5000 5000 thegraphsshowexistingcensus 0 0 1717 1717 timates fortheciti 1725 1725 theareabesidesBarcelona.Asit 1733 1733 effectsofthewarincity Estimated Estimated 1741 1741 opulation, 1717-1900 1749 1749 Population 1855 1855 Population 1757 1757 Population 1765 Population 1765 1773 1773 Sabadell 1781 1781 1789 1789 1797 1797 Barcelona 1805 1805 1813 1813 Badalona Registered Registered 1821 1821 1829 1829 es ofBadalaona, 1837 1837 Population 1845 Population 1845 1853 1853 1861 1861 Mataró 1869 1869 1877 1877 1885 1885 1893 1893 3. Estimating populations for Barcelona and for Catalonia since 1451. The rough historical data available from historians since the 15th century suggest a surprising stability, until 1860, in the proportions between the city of Barcelona, our area of study and the whole Catalonia. Therefore, since the Barcelona Historical Marriage Database starts in 1451, we are presently estimating continuous populations for Barcelona and Catalonia. Comparison of provisional results calculated through marriages with occasional population data mentioned in literature promise quite satisfying results. This part of our contribution is still in construction, needing some extra checking and verification of the entire database. Results will be shown in the presentation at the EPC as an extra, only if relevant and credible. .