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Monthly Report January 2019

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Monthly Report January 2019 Monthly Report January 2019 Vol. 71 No 1 Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report January 2019 2 Deutsche Bundesbank Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14 60431 Frankfurt am Main Germany Annual and weekly publishing schedules for Postal address selected statistics of the Deutsche Bundes- Postfach 10 06 02 bank can be downloaded from our website. 60006 Frankfurt am Main The statistical data are also published on the Germany website. Tel +49 69 9566 0 The Monthly Report is published by the Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main, Fax +49 69 9566 3077 by virtue of section 18 of the Bundesbank Act. It is available to interested parties free of http://www.bundesbank.de charge. Reproduction permitted only if source is stated. This is a translation of the original German- language version, which is the sole authorita- ISSN 0418-8292 (print edition) tive text. ISSN 1862-1325 (online edition) The German original of this Monthly Report went to press at 11 am on 18 January 2019. Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report January 2019 3 Contents Commentaries .......................................................................................................... 5 Economic conditions ........................................................................................................... 5 Securities markets ............................................................................................................... 8 Balance of payments ........................................................................................................... 9 The impact of an interest rate normalisation on the private non- financial sector in the euro area from a balance sheet perspective ................................................................................................................ 13 The interest rate exposure of euro area households ............................................................ 20 Price competitiveness in individual euro area countries: developments, drivers and the influence of labour market reforms ... 31 Real effective exchange rates, price competitiveness indicators and concepts for their assessment ............................................................................................................ 33 Estimates of the impact of labour market regulation on price competitiveness ................... 45 Financial cycles in the euro area ....................................................................... 51 Frequency analysis and bandpass filters ............................................................................. 56 Analysing the wavelet power spectra of credit aggregates, house prices and real gross domestic product in Germany ............................................................................ 61 IFRS 9 from the perspective of banking supervision .................................. 75 Current regulatory treatment of accounting loss allowances .............................................. 85 IFRS 9 transitional arrangements in the European Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR) ... 88 Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report January 2019 4 Statistical Section.................................................................................................... 1• Key economic data for the euro area .................................................................................. 5• Overall monetary survey in the euro area ............................................................................ 8• Consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem ............................................................ 16• Banks .................................................................................................................................. 20• Minimum reserves ............................................................................................................... 42• Interest rates ....................................................................................................................... 43• Insurance corporations and pension funds .......................................................................... 48• Capital market .................................................................................................................... 50• Financial accounts ............................................................................................................... 54• Public finances in Germany ................................................................................................. 58• Economic conditions in Germany ........................................................................................ 66• External sector .................................................................................................................... 75• Overview of publications by the Deutsche Bundesbank .......................... 85• Abbreviations and symbols e Estimated p Provisional pe Partly estimated r Revised … Data available at a later date . Data unknown, not to be published or not meaningful 0 Less than 0.5 but more than nil – Nil Discrepancies in the totals are due to rounding. Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report January 2019 5 Commentaries Economic conditions product increased by 1.5% in 2018 (also 1.5% Preliminary after calendar adjustment). Growth in aggre- results show GDP growth Underlying trends gate output thus weakened noticeably as com- at 1.5% in full- pared with the robust acceleration of 2.2% (as year 2018 Only slight The German economy is likely to have grown much as 2.5% after calendar adjustment) in the growth expected again in the final quarter of 2018, albeit only previous year. On the output side, this was for German economy in the modestly. Growth probably did not return to mainly attributable to lower growth in manu- fourth quarter of 2018 the robust pace of the first half of 2018 follow- facturing. Another factor were the automotive ing the setback in the third quarter as had ini- industry’s production stoppages in the third tially been expected. This is primarily attribut- quarter, which were responsible for the decline able to disappointing developments in industry. in economic output in the third quarter. On the Output in the automotive industry is probably demand side, much more moderate growth in returning to normal only very gradually after German exports, in particular, had an impact. the introduction of a new emissions test pro- cedure (Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure: WLTP) caused extensive pro- Industry duction stoppages during the third quarter. Economic indicators do suggest that the manu- Industrial output saw a steep decline in Novem- Major damper facture of motor vehicles might be stepped up ber 2018, falling by 1¾% on the month in sea- for industrial output in again soon, with orders received, in particular, sonally adjusted terms. On an average of Octo- November having experienced a significant recovery. Fur- ber and November, it was significantly down thermore, towards the end of the period under on the third quarter (-1¼%). The downward review, the number of new motor vehicle regis- movement affected a wide range of sectors in trations in Germany was roughly back up to the period under review. Even the automotive the second quarter level again. Irrespective of sector, which had already been under heavy this, however, data provided by the German strain during the third quarter on account of Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) the WLTP crisis, experienced another contrac- show that the seasonally adjusted number of tion of output (-¾%). The weak level of pro- passenger cars produced in December was duction in this industrial sector is thus likely to only marginally higher than the November fig- drag on longer than initially expected, as is also ure and still considerably below the second suggested by the VDA data already available quarter’s level. Furthermore, in other manufac- for December. According to these data, the turing sectors, output experienced a broad- seasonally adjusted number of manufactured based and steep decline in November. A signifi- passenger cars was slightly higher than in pre- cant drop in industrial output can therefore vious months, but still distinctly below the level now also be expected for the fourth quarter as in the first half of 2018. On an average of Octo- a whole. By contrast, positive stimuli will prob- ber and November, there was a marked decline ably have been provided by private consump- of ½% in the production of capital goods over- tion given the continuing excellent labour mar- all compared with the third quarter. Producers ket situation and substantial wage growth. This of intermediate goods suffered an even larger is suggested by the strong increase in retail drop in production (-1%). The 5% reduction in sales in November. output in the consumer goods industry stood out, in particular. This was due to an excep- According to provisional figures released by the tional development in the pharmaceutical in- Federal Statistical Office, real gross domestic dustry, however, where production was cut sig- Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report January 2019 6 nificantly (-21¼%) following a prolonged steep Economic conditions in Germany* rise.1 Excluding pharmaceutical products, the manufacture of consumer goods stagnated. Marked decline Seasonally adjusted New orders received by German industry fell significantly in November and were down by in industrial new Orders received (volume); 2015 = 100 orders Industry 1% on the previous month in seasonally ad- of which: Main con- justed
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