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City Region Exchange CARDIFF CAPITAL STATE OF THE STATE REGION CITY REGION City Region Exchange Prepared by Dr. Brian Webb School of Geography and Planning, Cardiff University February 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS 5 / Population and Housing 11 / Economic Prosperity 17 / Skills and Innovation 21 / Wealth and Deprivation 25 / Health and Well-being 29 / Environment and Built Heritage 32 / Transportation and Infrastructure [ 4" ] Cardiff University’s City Region Exchange is delighted to present this ‘State of the City Region’ report for FOREWORD the Cardiff Capital Region. This is the first report of its kind and has been produced in an effort to bring together in one place the latest economic, social and environmental data on the city region. We have tried to use accessible and interesEng graphics, and to provide some accompanying commentary on key trends and paFerns. Our key moEvaEon in producing this report is to demonstrate the sort of data and informaEon that is currently available on the economic health and wellbeing of the Cardiff Capital Region. This data will be important as key decision-makers seek to benchmark and monitor the impact of the City Deal, its associated strategy and range of new iniEaEves. It is our hope that this report will therefore prompt a wider discussion and debate about the sort of data and informaEon that might need to be regularly collected and analysed to inform ongoing developments in the Cardiff Capital Region, as well as about the appropriate means and mechanisms for doing this. In short, this could provide a template for a regular, perhaps annual, independent health check for key decision-makers and stakeholders in the Cardiff Capital Region. There is considerable scope for further discussion and debate about the sorts of informaEon that will be useful as the City Deal is implemented and the city region develops. The work we’ve undertaken for this report suggests that at present, many of the key data sets for the region are somewhat piecemeal. Certainly, there is scope for greater development in terms of indicators which will help us beFer understand how effecEvely the city region works as a funcEonal, interdependent economic area, including, for example, how the labour market funcEons, how businesses are connected across the city Prof. Gillian Bristow region, and the economic role played by the region’s different towns and communiEes. Similarly, there is Dr. Adrian Healy much greater scope for thinking whether, and how effecEvely, exisEng data for the city region maps Dr. Stevie Upton onto the requirements of the Wellbeing of Future GeneraEons Act. What this report does reinforce is the very varied economic and social geography of the Cardiff Capital City Region Exchange Region, and the scale of both the opportuniEes and the challenge facing those charged with finding Cardiff University ways to grow and spread economic opportuniEes in a truly transformaEve way. We hope that this report will also contribute to the important task of thinking and acEng city-regionally that is going to be so cityregionexchange@cardiff.ac.uk crucial to the success and sustainability of the city-region agenda in south east Wales. www.cardiff.ac.uk/city-region-exchange As such, we welcome your thoughts and suggesEons on this report and how it might be developed and TwiFer: @CRE_CU taken forward into the future. Please contact us and join in the debate! [ 5" ] POPULATION AND HOUSING [ 6" ] • Within the Cardiff Capital Region there Figure 3: Built up area of Cardiff Capital Region have been variable levels of population growth since 2001, with Cardiff rising 17.0% and Blaenau Gwent slightly declining by 0.7%. • While Cardiff remains the largest authority in the Cardiff Capital Region, unlike most other city regions in the UK a number of other authorities make up a large portion of the population, including Rhondda Cynon Taf, Caerphilly, Newport, and Bridgend. • Distinctive for its countryside the city region has a mix of heavily urbanised and -4.5 0 4.5 9 13.5 18 rural areas, with Monmouthshire having a Figure 1: Percentage change in population (2001-2015) 1: Percentage Figure particularly rural population. Blaenau Gwent Bridgend Figure 4: Percentage of population that is rural (2011) Caerphilly Cardiff Merthyr Tydfil Monmouthshire Newport Rhondda Cynon Taf 50 The Vale of Glamorgan Torfaen 37.5 91,836 69,544 25 127,592 142,092 12.5 180,164 0 237,411 ff Cardi Torfaen Newport Bridgend Caerphilly 147,769 Merthyr Tydfil Figure 2: Population (2015) Figure 357,160 Blaenau Gwent 92,476 Monmouthshire 59,324 Rhondda Cynon Taf Percentage of population that is rural (2011) of Glamorgan The Vale [ 7" ] Figure 5: Projected population change (principal projections), mid-2015 to mid-2025 Figure 6: City region age profile • A key threat to the productivity of the Cardiff Capital 9 3,200,000 Region is the high percentage of residents who are 18% of Cardiff Capital 65 years or older, one of the highest in the UK. 8.9 • Population projections to mid-2025 also highlight the Region residents are decline in the working age population for the city 65 years old or older region, with a stagnating (-0.01%) 16-44 year olds population and decline of 1.8% for 45-64 year olds. 7.5 6.75 7.3 2,400,000 • Population projections for UK city regions suggest compared to the Cardiff Capital Region will see relatively low levels of growth to mid-2025 at 3.6% compared to other Greater London 12% city regions such as Bristol (8.9%). The total 5.9 Greater Manchester population of the city region is however projected to 5.5 16% rise to 1,558,000, making it comparable to Liverpool 4.5 1,600,000 city region. 4.8 17% Bristol City Region Figure 7: Percentage change in population (principal projections), mid-2015 to mid-2025, by broad age group 50 3.6 0-15 16-44 45-64 64+ 3.3 37.5 2.25 2.8 800,000 2.2 25 12.5 0 0 0 ff eld ffi Bristol Cardi She Glasgow Liverpool Edinburgh ff North East eld ffi West Yorkshire West West Midlands West Bristol Cardi She Glasgow Liverpool Edinburgh Greater Manchester Greater North East West Yorkshire West Population percentage change (2015-25) Midlands West Projected population in mid-2025 Greater Manchester Greater [ 8" ] Figure 8: City region migration profile Figure 9: City region population growth • The Cardiff Capital Region exhibits low PopulaBon PopulaBon levels of migration compared to other City region Growth % growth mid-2011 mid-2015 city regions in the UK. West Midlands • Over the past four years the city Greater region’s population has grown by 8,204,000 8,674,000 469,000 5.7% London 24,000 people. However at 1.6% this Greater Manchester is much lower than many other city Bristol 1,070,000 1,119,000 49,000 4.5% regions, with only the North-East, Liverpool, and Glasgow being West comparatively lower. West Yorkshire 2,740,000 2,834,000 94,000 3.4% Midlands • While the region has a high level of young people, this can be partly Greater attributed to the number of universities Sheffield 2,685,000 2,756,000 71,000 2.6% Manchester in the city region. Figure 10: Cardiff Capital Region Edinburgh 1,316,000 1,350,000 34,000 2.6% Bristol population pyramid by age (2015) West Male Female 2,227,000 2,282,000 54,000 2.4% 90+ Yorkshire Edinburgh Sheffield 1,344,000 1,375,000 31,000 2.3% 75 North East Cardiff 1,482,000 1,505,000 24,000 1.6% North East 1,933,000 1,957,000 24,000 1.2% Liverpool Liverpool 1,506,000 1,525,000 18,000 1.2% 50 Glasgow 1,787,000 1,804,000 17,000 1.0% Glasgow City regions 26,295,000 27,180,000 885,000 3.4% City regions 18,091,000 18,506,000 415,000 2.3% not London 25 Cardiff Rest of the 0 7500 15000 22500 30000 36,990,000 37,930,000 940,000 2.5% UK Immigration Emigration Net Migration (1=1,000 people) UK 63,285,000 65,110,000 1,825,000 2.9% 0 0 6000 12000 *Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding [ 9" ] Figure 11: Difference between workday and • Compared to resident population, workday population helps resident population (2011) to indicate where major employment areas are located. The only two areas of the Cardiff Capital Region that saw a net Bridgend increase in population during the day due to workers were —799 Blaenau Cardiff and Newport in the 2011 census. Caerphilly • Merthyr Tydfil, however, saw strong growth in its workday Gwent population between 2001-2011, rising 33% compared to —18,870 —6,294 Blaenau Gwent, Monmouthshire and Newport which saw more modest increases of 5.0%, 9.6% and 5.2% Merthyr Cardiff respectively. Tydfil +40,196 • Population projections for the unitary authorities in the city —241 Newport region show high levels of growth for Cardiff to the year 2036 and slight declines in population for Merthyr Tydfil and +8,957 Monmouthshire Blaenau Gwent. Torfaen —4,773 Figure 13: 2014-based unitary authority population projections (2016, 2026, 2036) —1,397 Rhondda The Vale of 500,000 Cynon Taf Glamorgan —17,260 —13,452 375,000 Figure 12: Percentage change in workplace population (2001-2011) 250,000 125,000 0 ff Cardi Torfaen Torfaen Newport Bridgend Caerphilly Merthyr Tydfil Merthyr Tydfil Blaenau Gwent Monmouthshire Monmouthshire Vale of Glamorgan of Glamorgan Vale 2016 Rhondda Cynon Taf 2026 2036 [ 10" ] • Increases in density between 2001 and Figure 14: Average population density (persons/ Figure 16: Median house price paid 2011 have been rather modest apart hectares) (All house types, first quarter, 2016) from a strong increase in Cardiff to 24.7 Unitary Authority 2001 2011 Change persons/hectare.
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