South African Army Vision 2020 Security Challenges Shaping the Future South African Army EDITED BY LEN LE ROUX www.issafrica.org © 2007, Institute for Security Studies All rights reserved Copyright in the volume as a whole is vested in the Institute for Security Studies, and no part may be reproduced in whole or part without the express permission, in writing, of both the authors and the publishers. The opinions expressed in this book do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute, its Trustees, members of the ISS Council, or donors. Authors contribute to ISS publications in their personal capacity. ISBN: 978-1-920114-24-4 First published by the Institute for Security Studies PO Box 1787, Brooklyn Square 0075 Pretoria/Tshwane, South Africa Cover photo: Colonel Johan Blaauw Cover design and layout: Marketing Support Services Printer: D&V Premier Print Group CONTENTS Preface v About the authors vii CHAPTER ONE The South African army in its global and local contexts in the early 21st century: A mission-critical analysis 1 Professor G Prins CHAPTER TWO Change and continuity in global politics and military strategy 35 Professor J E Spence CHAPTER THREE The African strategic environment 2020: Challenges for the SA army 45 Dr Jakkie Cilliers CHAPTER FOUR Conflict in Africa: Future challenges 83 Dr Martin Rupiya CHAPTER FIVE Regional security 93 Ms Virginia Gamba CHAPTER SIX The alliances of violent non-state actors and the future of terrorism in Africa 107 Dr Abdel Aziz M Shady CHAPTER SEVEN International and regional trends in peace missions: Implications for the SA army 123 Colonel (Rtd) Festus B Aboagye CHAPTER EIGHT US and NATO security and stability operations: Lessons learned in Afghanistan 149 Brigadier General John Adams iii Contents CHAPTER NINE Australian army operations in East Timor and the Solomon Islands in 2006 171 Colonel John Hutcheson CHAPTER TEN Transforming an army in combat 189 Brigadier General W C Mayville CHAPTER ELEVEN The future of weapons of mass destruction and rogue states 195 Professor Renfrew Christie CHAPTER TWELVE Technologies for landward military operations by 2020: With specific reference to C4I3RS1 enablers of precision engagement 207 Mr André Nepgen CHAPTER THIRTEEN Future prospects of information warfare and particularly psychological operations 217 Brigadier General Mario Silvino Brazzoli CHAPTER FOUTEEN South Africa in 2020: An internal security perspective 235 Dr Johan Burger CHAPTER FIFTEEN Guns versus butter in South Africa: An economic analysis 259 Professor André Roux CHAPTER SIXTEEN The revision of the South African defence review and international trends in force design: Implications for the SA army 271 Major General (Rtd) Len le Roux Conclusion 289 Preface In its quest for a future vision the SA Army has reached a milestone with the documentation of SA Army Strategy 2020. The planning phase has also been partially completed. Before implementing these plans, the SA Army needed to conduct a reality check to ensure that SA Army Vision 2020 has addressed all future security challenges in the strategy – hence SA Army Seminar 21 was hosted on 1 and 2 November 2006. The aim of the seminar was to confirm and add value to SA Army Vision 2020. The guest speakers for SA Army Seminar 21 were from South Africa, other African countries, the United States of America, Australia and the United Kingdom. They were mainly academics, with the exception of those from Australia and the USA, who were military practitioners. The speakers focused their presentations on the theme of the seminar, ‘Security challenges shaping the future SA Army: A reality check for SA Army Vision 2020’. Where the presentations triggered aspects that had not been addressed in SA Army Strategy 2020 and the strategic plans, the necessary amendments are currently being made. A variety of topics on internal, continental and global security challenges and the role that technology will play in future military operations were covered. The focus was on land operations in an integrated, joint, multinational, inter-agency and interdepartmental context and reference was also made to case studies and emerging world trends. These presentations confirmed the SA Army Vision 2020 future requirements, specifically in the fields of personnel, organisation, training, education, doctrine, facilities, information and technology, as well as materiel requirements for force support and employment. The delegates who were invited to SA Army Seminar 21 were members of the SA Army and the SANDF. In future the SA Army intends to make this seminar a biennial event for invitees from other government departments, members of the defence-related industries, SADC, regional security organisations in Africa and academic institutions. In so doing, it is hoped, collective security in southern Africa and Africa as a whole will be enhanced. SA Army Seminar 21 was conducted with the excellent support of the Institute for Security Studies, which has taken upon itself the task of compiling this publication based on the SA Army Seminar 21 v vi Preface presentations. The book is therefore available for public use, while the documentation on the military interpretation of the seminar will be used only within the SANDF, specifically the army. I would like to thank all the guest speakers for their preparation time and excellent presentations at the seminar. A word of thanks also goes to those who attended, whose questions and comments at the end of each presentation not only added value to the seminar but also provided a learning opportunity for officers and senior warrant officers of the SA Army. Special appreciation goes to the Institute for Security Studies for its support of and active participation in this seminar, which have been an indication of the quality of the SA Army’s strategic partnership with the Institute. The financial support of the Royal Netherlands Embassy contributed to the success of the seminar and is much appreciated. The SA Army is looking forward to working closely with these two major role-players in the future. Finally, after a successful SA Army Seminar 21, I am satisfied that the theme has been explored adequately to provide sufficient insight for the military interpretation of future security challenges. S Z Shoke Chief of the SA Army: Lieutenant General About the authors Professor Gwyn Prins (MA, PhD (Cantab), FRHistS) is the first Alliance Research Professor appointed jointly at the London School of Economics & Political Science and at Columbia University, New York. He is director of the newly created LSE Mackinder Centre for the Study of Long Wave Events. For over 20 years he was a fellow and the director of studies in history at Emmanuel College, Cambridge, and a lecturer in politics at the University of Cambridge. During the later 1990s he was senior fellow in the Office of the Special Adviser on Central and Eastern European Affairs, Office of the Secretary-General of NATO, Brussels, and visiting senior fellow in the Defence Evaluation and Research Agency of the UK Ministry of Defence. He was the consultant on security at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research of the British Meteorological Office, Bracknell, for four years to 2003. His doctoral research was on 19th century western Zambia, where he lived for many years. With Professor Tony Barnett, he has just published a report for UNAIDS entitled AIDS and Security: Fact, Fiction and Evidence. Professor J E Spence (OBE) was educated at Pretoria Boys’ High School, the University of the Witwatersrand (BA Hons 1952) and the London School of Economics (BSc (Econ) 1957). He has lectured at a number of universities in Britain and South Africa: he was professor of politics and pro-vice chancellor at the University of Leicester (1973–1991) and director of studies at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (1991– 1997). He is a past president of the African Studies Association UK and past chairman of the British International Studies Association. He has published six books on Southern African issues and some 50 articles in learned journals. He has been a visiting professor at the universities of California, Los Angeles; Zimbabwe; the Witwatersrand; Cape Town; Natal and Pretoria; he was a regular contributor to print, radio and television outlets and a consultant to Oxford Analytica; the Defence Intelligence College (USA); the Foreign and Commonwealth Office; the ERSC; and Joint Services Command and Staff College, US State Department. He was editor of International Affairs, Journal of Southern Africa Studies and Review of International Studies. He is chairman of the Advisory Council of the Association for the Study of Ethnicity and vii viii About the authors Nationalism. He holds honorary doctorates from the universities of the Witwatersrand, Leicester and Nottingham, Trent. He is also an honorary fellow of University College, Swansea; the University of Staffordshire; and Nene College, Northampton. He is currently a visiting professor in the Department of War Studies at King’s College, London. He also serves as academic advisor to the Royal College of Defence Studies and edits its annual collection of Seaford House Papers. Professor Spence was awarded an OBE in the Queen’s Jubilee Honours List in 2003. Dr Jakkie Cilliers has BMil (BA), BA Hons, MA (cum laude) and DLitt et Phil degrees from the Universities of Stellenbosch and South Africa. He co-founded the Institute for Defence Policy during 1990, which subsequently became the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). Since 1993 Dr Cilliers has served as executive director of the ISS. Awards and decorations he has received include the Bronze Medal from the South African Society for the Advancement of Science and the H Bradlow Research Bursary. Dr Cilliers has presented numerous papers at conferences and seminars and is a regular commentator on local and international radio and television. He regularly lectures on security issues and has published, edited and contributed to a large number of journals, books and other publications, serving on a number of boards and committees.