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REGIME SHIFTS in MARINE ECOSYSTEMS Provisional Version DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES STRUCTURAL AND COHESION POLICIESB POLICY DEPARTMENT AgricultureAgriculture and Rural and Development Rural Development STRUCTURAL AND COHESION POLICIES B CultureCulture and Education and Education Role The Policy Departments are research units that provide specialised advice Fisheries to committees, inter-parliamentary delegations and other parliamentary bodies. Fisheries RegionalRegional Development Development Policy Areas TransportTransport and andTourism Tourism Agriculture and Rural Development Culture and Education Fisheries Regional Development Transport and Tourism Documents Visit the European Parliament website: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/studies PHOTO CREDIT: iStock International Inc., Photodisk, Phovoir DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT B: STRUCTURAL AND COHESION POLICIES FISHERIES REGIME SHIFTS IN MARINE ECOSYSTEMS: HOW OVERFISHING CAN PROVOKE SUDDEN ECOSYSTEM CHANGES WORKSHOP CONTENTS ECOSYSTEM REGIME SHIFTS TRIGGERED BY OVERFISHING by Christian MÖLLMANN 1 ECOSYSTEM SHIFTS IN THE BALTIC SEA by Michele CASINI 45 ECOSYSTEM SHIFTS IN THE BLACK SEA by Georgi M. DASKALOV 83 MANAGEMENT RESPONSES TO REGIME SHIFTS IN MARINE ECOSYSTEMS by Brad DE YOUNG 123 3 4 DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT B: STRUCTURAL AND COHESION POLICIES FISHERIES ECOSYSTEM REGIME SHIFTS TRIGGERED BY OVERFISHING NOTE Abstract Marine ecosystem regime shifts occur in synchrony during the late 1980s/early 1990s suggesting a common climate driver. Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing are regularly involved indicating the interaction of multiple drivers. Multiple drivers interact in a way that one undermines resilience (overfishing) and another (climate change) gives the final impulse. Ecosystem regime shifts can be difficult to reverse when alternative stable states are involved. Ecosystem-based management strategies including early warning systems are needed to avoid ecosystem regime shifts. IP/B/PECH/IC/2011-101 November 2011 PE 460.076 EN 5 This document was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Fisheries. AUTHOR Christian MÖLLMANN Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, University of Hamburg Germany RESPONSIBLE ADMINISTRATOR Irina POPESCU Policy Department Structural and Cohesion Policies European Parliament E-mail: [email protected] EDITORIAL ASSISTANCE Virginija KELMELYTE LINGUISTIC VERSIONS Original: EN Translation: DE, ES, FR, IT, PT ABOUT THE EDITOR To contact the Policy Department or to subscribe to its monthly newsletter please write to: [email protected] Manuscript completed in November 2011. Brussels, © European Parliament, 2011. This document is available on the Internet at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/studies DISCLAIMER The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorized, provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and sent a copy. 6 Ecosystem regime shifts triggered by overfishing LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Summary of regime shift timing (regime shifts during the late 1980s/early 1990s in bold) and the main drivers of change in six Northern hemisphere ecosystems. 36 Table 2: Summary of trophic cascades that were observed in ecosystems with regime shifts. 38 LIST OF MAPS Map 1: Ecosystems investigated in this study 13 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Regime shifts in the North Pacific ecosystem. 14 Figure 2: Regime shifts in the Eastern Scotian Shelf ecosystem. 16 Figure 3: Regime shifts in the North Sea ecosystem. 18 Figure 4: Regime shifts in the Baltic Sea (including The Sound) ecosystem. 20 Figure 5: Conceptual diagram showing bottom-up forcing of a marine food chain (grey circles to the left) and trophic cascading induced by overfishing (black circles) where the regulation between trophic levels is changed to top-down control. 24 Figure 6: Conceptual diagram showing possible ecosystem responses to external pressures and the development of alternative stable states. 30 Figure 7: Conceptual diagram of the concepts of resilience and attraction basins. 31 Figure 8: Comparison of the development of ecosystem state indicators (Principal Component1 - PC1) and regime shift timing during the late 1980s/early 1990s in six Northern hemisphere marine ecosystems. 37 7 Policy Department B: Structural and Cohesion Policies LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS CIL Cold Intermediate Layer CPR Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ICES International Council for the Exploration of the Sea NAO North Atlantic Oscillation OCH Oscillating Control Hypothesis PC Principal Component PCA Principal Component Analysis PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation 8 Ecosystem regime shifts triggered by overfishing EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background Overfishing has been shown to seriously affect the ecosystems of the world oceans. In addition to direct fishing effects on target stocks, ecosystem effects are increasingly reported as a result of unsustainable exploitation levels. There is now compelling evidence that fishing-induced changes at the top of the food web can have profound indirect effects on all trophic levels and hence change the structure and functioning of the whole food web. Such trophic cascades involve a top-down (i.e. consumer) control view on ecosystem functioning, which opposes the traditional bottom-up (resource) control view that existed for marine ecosystems. Large-scale reorganizations of ecosystems and their food webs, called regime shifts, are traditionally considered from a bottom-up perspective. The term regime shift generally describes the abrupt transition between different states in any complex system. Initially, regime shifts have been described in atmospheric processes on multidecadal time-scales and their effects on the physical environment. In biological and fisheries oceanography, the term was originally used based on the observation of a temporal correspondence of climate indices and fish population abundances. More recently, the term ecosystem regime shift has been used to define drastic large time- and space-scale shifts in abundances of major components of marine biological communities. Conceptually, the regime shift theory was further developed during key investigations in freshwater, on land and in coral reef systems. These studies pointed toward external drivers other than climate, e.g. exploitation and eutrophication, and their interaction in causing regime shifts. Furthermore, aspects of the nature of regime shifts were discussed, which can be linear or abrupt, or can even be discontinuous when hysteresis is involved. Eventually, these developments have resulted in theories on catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems and critical transitions in nature addressing the potential of alternative stable states in ecosystems. The existence of alternative stable states has important management implications, because restoring regimes considered as favourable may require drastic and expensive management actions. Aim The general theme of this briefing note is the importance of overfishing in triggering ecosystem regime shifts. For this purpose, ecosystem regime shifts are defined as infrequent and abrupt changes in ecosystem structure and function, occurring at multiple trophic levels and on large geographic scales. The study reviews prominent examples of ecosystem regime shifts in the North Pacific and the Eastern Scotian Shelf off the East coast of Canada, as well as the North Sea, the Baltic and the Black Sea; discusses trophic cascades as the phenomenon by which overfishing can cause ecosystem regime shifts using examples from the Eastern Scotian Shelf and the Baltic and Black Seas; 9 Policy Department B: Structural and Cohesion Policies reviews alternative stable state theory and evidence for stable states in the reported cases of marine ecosystem regime shifts; presents conclusions on the causes of ecosystem regime shifts with special reference to overfishing; makes recommendations for future research and ecosystem-based management strategies. Key findings The synchronicity in timing of ecosystem regime shifts over the Northern hemisphere during the late 1980s/early 1990s suggests a common climate driver. Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing are regularly observed, indicating that multiple external drivers are usually needed to cause ecosystem regime shifts. Multiple external drivers interact in a way that one undermines resilience (e.g. fishing) and another one (e.g. abrupt climate change) gives the final impulse for an ecosystem regime shift. Ecosystem regime shifts can be difficult to reverse when alternative stable states are involved. Indications for the latter exist from multiple ecosystems. Ecosystem-based management strategies are needed to avoid ecosystem regime shifts and early warning systems need to be developed. 10 Ecosystem regime shifts triggered by overfishing 1. INTRODUCTION KEY FINDINGS There is now compelling evidence that fisheries-induced changes at the top of the food web can have profound indirect effects on all trophic levels. These trophic cascades, originally demonstrated for limnic and marine benthic systems, have now also been shown for pelagic systems involving four trophic levels with the most prominent examples from the Scotian
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