Exploring Low-Carbon Development Pathways for Bolivia

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Exploring Low-Carbon Development Pathways for Bolivia kth royal institute of technology Doctoral Thesis in Energy and Environmental Systems Exploring low-carbon development pathways for Bolivia A model-based analysis focused on the energy sector JENNY GABRIELA PEÑA BALDERRAMA Stockholm, Sweden 2020 Exploring low-carbon development pathways for Bolivia A model-based analysis focused on the energy sector JENNY GABRIELA PEÑA BALDERRAMA Academic Dissertation which, with due permission of the KTH Royal Institute of Technology, is submitted for public defence for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy on Friday the 18th December 2020, at 10:00 a.m. in E2, Lindstedsvägen 3, Stockholm. Doctoral Thesis in Energy and Environmental Systems KTH Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm, Sweden 2020 © Jenny Gabriela Peña Balderrama Cover page photo: Michael Tompsett ISBN 978-91-7873-731-4 TRITA-ITM-AVL 2020:49 Printed by: Universitetsservice US-AB, Sweden 2020 ‘There is no failure, except in no longer trying’— Elbert Hubbard Photo credit by Todd Antony Abstract Global emissions have continued to rise steadily at levels exceeding the 1.5°C climate stabilization target. Therefore, the increase in the average global temperature and climate change will be determined by how we handle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next years. Decarbonizing economic growth and development add pressure to all countries in the world, but even more pressure to low and middle-income countries planning to use their fossil fuel resources as a ‘leading sector’ to achieve growth. Low and middle-income countries have limited financial resources and often have to prioritize short-term development goals with immediate local co-benefits over mitigation and adaptation strategies with long-term gains. Reaching the climate stabilization/decarbonization goal will require large investments to decarbonize the energy sector, together with investments and policy measures to ensure resilience and adaptation to climate change. Bolivia has signaled its intent to eradicate poverty and achieve economic growth while preserving environmental sustainability by adopting the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In line with SDG7, Bolivia aims to achieve universal access to electricity by 2025. Although electricity access has improved significantly with large investments in grid-extension and decentralized systems, currently 61% of the grid generation capacity and 93% of the decentralized generation capacity is fossil-fueled. Other sectors, such as the transport sector, depend mostly on fossil fuels and largely contribute to Bolivia’s GHG emissions. Policies intended to increase energy security in Bolivia focus on the increased use of domestic natural gas, on investments in large-scale hydropower plants, and on first-generation (1G) biofuel production for the transport sector. In line with SDG 7 and SDG 13, this doctoral thesis examines low-carbon development pathways for the main policies addressing energy access and energy security in Bolivia. With methods deriving from systems analysis, the particulars of the Bolivian energy system were scrutinized and the effects of alternative energy planning decisions ‒ such as policies and investments ‒ displayed using scenario analysis. Five research articles answering four research questions form the main part of the thesis. The first research question examines the role of decentralized technologies (primarily micro-grids) and renewable energy for addressing universal i electricity access targets. The cost-competitiveness of multi-source micro- grids is assessed using an innovative methodology developed to increase the technical accuracy of load simulation and microgrid system design optimization in an existing geospatial modelling tool. The results highlight the potential of decentralized electrification solutions and identify the location, size and investments required to meet electrification targets in 2025. The second research question focuses on evaluating alternative policies for decarbonizing the power generation sector using an energy system optimization model. The combined effects of inserting carbon taxes and modifying the weighted average cost of capital on the power generation emissions are measured in marginal abatement cost curves. Results from this conceptual and numerical analysis show that a deep decarbonization of the power generation system requires very high carbon prices if the costs of capital are high. Instead, moderate carbon prices combined with low costs of capital can lead to significant emissions reductions and comparably smaller increases in carbon abatement costs. The third research question examines Bolivia’s hydroelectricity export plans in the medium-term using a cost-optimization model of South America. The study also evaluates the fair distribution of benefits using a cooperative game-theory approach and the decarbonization achieved in a scenario of power systems integration in South America. Results of this study indicate that electricity from large-scale hydropower projects could be traded with Brazil and reduce Bolivia’s dependence on natural gas for power generation. The results also show that Bolivia has less bargaining power than its competitors have in the long-term and benefits less from emissions reductions in a scenario of trade with Brazil. Lastly, the fourth research question explores energy security in the transport sector by assessing Bolivia’s sugarcane-based ethanol production targets. Increased sustainability in the ethanol production chain is evaluated quantitatively by identifying opportunities for agricultural intensification and investments in advanced biorefineries in a least-cost optimization model. Results from this analysis demonstrate that Bolivia can cost-effectively reach its medium-term targeted volumes of ethanol production with a moderate expansion of sugarcane cropland and investments in agriculture intensification. The results further suggest that it is cost-optimal to invest in current technological advances (i.e. efficient co-generation plants) to maximize the renewable energy output and the economic benefits of sugarcane-derived ethanol. Finally, the study ii identifies a range of biofuel-support incentives to promote investments in second-generation biofuel production. Keywords: decarbonization, sustainability, techno-economic analysis, Bolivia, energy access, energy security, systems analysis. Sammanfattning Globala utsläpp har fortsatt att stadigt öka till nivåer som överstiger klimatstabiliseringsmålet på 1.5°C. Därför kommer ökningen i den globala genomsnittliga temperaturen och klimatförändringen att avgöras av hur vi hanterar utsläppen av växthusgas under kommande år. Koldioxidutvecklingen ekonomisk tillväxt och utveckling sätter press på alla länder i världen. Men ännu större press på låg- och medelinkomstländer som planerar att använda sina fossila bränsleresurser som en ‘ledande sektor’ för att nå tillväxt. Låg- och medelinkomstländer har begränsade ekonomiska resurser och måste ofta prioritera kortsiktiga utvecklingsmål med omedelbara åtföljande lokala fördelar framför begränsningsstrategier med långsiktiga vinster. Att nå klimatstabiliserings - och koldioxidavvecklingsmålet kommer att kräva stora investeringar för att fasa ut fossila bränslen i energisektorn, tillsammans med investeringar och politiska åtgärder för att säkerställa uthållighet och anpassning till klimatförändringen. Bolivia har uttryckt ambitionen att utrota fattigdom och uppnå ekonomisk tillväxt och samtidigt bevara miljömässig hållbarhet genom att anta de sjutton globala målen. I linje med mål 7 strävar Bolivia att uppnå tillgång till elektricitet för alla till år 2025. Även om eltillgången har förbättrats avsevärt med stora investeringar i elnätet och decentraliserade el-system, så är fortfarande 61% av elproduktionskapaciteten och 93% av den decentraliserade produktionskapaciteten fossildriven. Andra sektorer, t.ex. transporter, domineras också av fossila bränslen och bidrar till stor del till växthusgasutsläppen. Politik som syftar till att öka energisäkerheten i Bolivia fokuserar på ökad användning av naturgas, på investeringar i storskaliga vattenkraftverk och på första generationens (1G) biobränsleproduktion för transportsektorn. I linje med dem globala målen 7 och 13 undersöker denna doktorsavhandling hållbara utvecklingsvägar med låga koldioxiduts läpp kring nyckelpolicyer som hanterar energitillgång och energisäkerhet i iii Bolivia. Med metoder som härrör från systemanalys av det bolivianska energisystemet och effekter av alternativa energiplaneringsbeslut – som strategier och investeringar – skärskådas vidare genom scenarioanalys. Fem forskningsartiklar presenteras i avhandlingen med vilka fyra forskningsfrågor besvaras. Den första forskningsfrågan undersöker rollen som decentraliserad teknik (främst mikronät) och förnybar energi för att möta modern energi till alla (mål 7). Konkurrenskraften för multidrivmedelmikronät bedöms med hjälp av en innovativ metod som utvecklats för att öka den tekniska noggrannheten för detaljerad belastningssimulering och optimering av system för systemdesign i ett geospatialt modelleringsverktyg. Resultaten belyser potentialen för decentraliserade elektrifieringslösningar och identifierar plats, storlek och investeringar som krävs för att uppnå elektrifieringsmål 2025. Den andra forskningsfrågan utvärderar alternativa strategier för en koldioxidfri kraftproduktionssektor med hjälp av en optimeringsmodell för energisystem. De kombinerade effekterna av att införa koldioxidskatter och ändra den
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