World Bank Document

Report No. 1546-BO Economic Memorandum FILE Y on Bolivia Public Disclosure Authorized

March 23, 1,977 Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized

Public Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit = Bolivian Peso ($b) US$1.00 = $b20.00 $bl.00 = US$0.05 $bl million US$50,000

The exchange rate of $b20 = US$1 was used throughout this report, except where indicated otherwise. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

This report is based on the findings of a mission to Bolivia in February 1976, composed of:

Mario Cortes (Chief of Mission) Ms. Dolores Velasco (Statistical Assistant)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

MAP

COUNTRY DATA

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ...... i viii

I. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ......

Evolution of Domestic Product ...... 1 Public Finances ...... 3 Balance of Payments ...... 6 Capital Flows and External Public Debt ...... 11

II. SECTOR ISSUES AND PROSPECTS ......

Agriculture ...... 13 Mining ...... 15 Industry ...... 20 Hydrocarbons ...... 22

III. GROWTH PROSPECTS ......

The Near Term Development Prospects ...... 24 Medium-Term Prospects ...... 25 Sectoral Strategy ...... 25 Growth Prospects ...... 30 Public Investment ...... 33 Balance of Payments Prospects and External Capital Requirements ...... 35 Export Prospects ...... 36 Import Requirements ...... 40 External Capital Requirements ...... 41 Creditworthiness ...... 42

STATISTICAL APPENDIX TEXT TABLES

Table 1: Evolution of Domestic Product, 1973-75

2: Public Sector Finances, 1970-76

3: Central Government Current Revenue and Expenditures, 1970-76

4: Summary Balance of Payments, 1971-76

5: Value, Composition and Growth of Merchandise Exports and Imports, 1971-73, 1974, 1975, and 1976

6: Terms of External Public Debt Contracted during 1969-76

7: Growth of Macroeconomic Parameters

8: Public Finance Sector Saving and Investment Requirements, 1976-80

9: Projected Public Sector Foreign Exchange Component, 1977-80

10: Merchandise Exports, 1976-85

11: Merchandise Imports, 1976-85

12: External Capital Requirements and Financing T-I

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Page 1 of 2 pages

COUNTRY DATA - (BOLIVIA)

AREA 2 OPUIATION DENSITY

2 thousand (1975 estimate) 5.1 per 1a 1,098,600knr 5,633.8 2 Average Rate of Growth: 2.-6 (from 1960to 1975) j5ltry per km of arable land ,1,7 I4 £ POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (1970) HEALTH (1970) Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 44 " Population per physician 2,300 Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 19 Population per hospital bed 490 Infant Mortaitty (per 1,000 live births) 154

INCOME DISTRIBUTION (197G) DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP (1970) % of national income, highest quintile 59 - % owned by top 10% of owners lowest quintile 4 / % owned by smallest 10% of owners

ACCESS TO PIPED WATER (1970) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (1970) % of population - urban 35 % of population - urban about 90 - rural 1 - rural about ,5'

NUTRITION (1970) EDUCATION C1970) 4ro Calorie intake as % of requirements 20 72.0 Adult literacy rate % ,38- Per capita protein intake L46- At Primary school enrollment % 96 "'-

1/ GNP PER CAPITA in 1975 US $ 320 ;'40

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN ],976 Iq 77 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (%, constant 1971rices)

US,$ Mln. % 197C-75N

GNP at Market Prices 2,416 3q7/.i lO0 .0 oo 0 -6.2 660- 3 . Gross Domestic Investment 497 -700.3 20.6 20,2 7-7 7 ° 2.4 9-3 Gross National Saving 357 314.2i 14.8 10. -1.9 29.5 - Current Account Balance 140 .-fiA -5.8 - 5 Exports of Goods, NFS 6C1 7aI.1 24.9 20i 16.4 12.7 Imports of Goods, NFS 709 827.9 29.3 23.8 23.5/,, -_2.4 /o.6

OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 19?5

Value Added (Market Prices) Ln2icyed Labor Force lq77 V. A. Per Worker .1' US . M1n. % Thousands ,9 u_

Agriculture 4454 . 71 25.6 ",81 L'5S1 57.9 307 ;7 71 . lMirniL. 207 399 11.7 92 qj, 3.6 2, 504-,X7 4L 52693 i4yd-cca4pnsl/ 97 | 7 5.5 .8 00.3 12,125j.3,.3752,839.c6 ! ) iiZ InlustrY7 256 iBjo 14.4 300W 29 11.7 853?,,46 199.87@?-c7 Serv,ces 760 5,5' 42..8 6?- G5 26.5 1,121 2;Lo 262.5 ^ ° Unallocated Total/Average 0 1 # -34pX 7 100. 427 /3/ 100.0 GOVERNMENT FINANCE Public Sector Central Government (Bb Mln.) % of GDP ( goG Mln.) DP Current 722 77--- .9

Current Expenditurai/ 6 44 3047,529 1505.6 X- Current Surplus 90431 0 .0 Capital Expenditures 6..970 00 4 , External Assistance (net) 3 6. 5.

1/ The Per Capita GNP estimate is at 1975 market prices, calculated by the same conversion technique as the 1976 World Atlas. All other conversions to dollars in this table are at 20.00 Bolivian pesos to 1 U.S. dollar. 2/ Terms-of-trade adjusted. 3/ Extraction and refining. Manufacturing and construction. Central and local governments only. not available not applicable Page 2 of 2 pages

COUNTRY DATA - BOLIVIA

MONEY, CREDIT and PRICES 1970 tY71 1971 i9 7. 1972 i 731973 /-iZ% 1974 !' T, 1975 /]f7 1976 7 (MKllion $b outstandinz end period)

Money and Quasi Money 1,848 21qO 2,144 aqo 2, --54 3,556 Sl J0 5$108 q425,2 2&708,463 22 6 90 Bank Credit to Public Sector 1,318 Its,- 1,622 1 14 2,106 A046 2,451 5•36 1,083 ft23 1,351 23702,429 Bank Credit to Private Sector 1,089 /<2l 1,220 IS7 1,895 x9'/42,944 *5MG4,$560 .EM5,822 781sf2 7,770

(Percentages or Index Numbers)

Money and Quasi Money as %of GNP 17,t9 1 194 /' 20.86 13,7 17 c /17 15 /' 0 . 9149 l7,5 General Price Index (19ir)7/ (Iq77) 42.568 JS I 44.1 4 46.9 503 61.4 &,',O0.:C t 1-2 Annual percentage changes in: 6 Retail Price Index / (3.7 0 3.8 q.LJ 6.3 3/.030.9 6,3.0 62.9 7, 8.0 J 8 Bank credit to Public Sector 9A' Z5 0 23.0 A1j7 30.0 34 l6.3 - 7,32.55. /.39,424.7 V4.7 79.8 Bank credit to Private Sector 16. / _ 6,012.1 65 5 55.3 55 365-4 • 54.9 ;7 . 27.7 3L L33.5

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MEaCDISE EXP0RXS 1 6 Iq 74 - /'77

19-7'4 1975 1976 Tin 226.8t 3.1 ?,09&S iJ2- ,(Milliins US $) Other Minerals 155.2 24.7 ) 7.3 .23.0 i~~~i~ ~~ 437 7~~~~~~i2~~rude Petroleum 139.8 2.3 /f/~ Exports of Goods,QNFS 5888 510 637 601 7 Natural Gas 8/ 27.3 4.3 t3,3. ) Imports of Goods, NFS 51$ 47 682 711 708 . Cotton 18.6 3.c q.0 2.9- Resource Gap (deficit = -) -172J3 7F-1!(7 -107 Sugar 26.9 4.6 !9 , Other A-ri. Ex-norts 26.1 4.5 )73 6.( Interest Payments (net) ) Other 3-3 0.5 - Workers' Remittances ) -31 -3/ -31 _-/ -47 _.,2Z Totdl (c.i.f. 628 0 100.0 7.ZS 'i . Payments (net) Total (f.o.b.) 5L'2.8 443. Other Factor ) 6 Net Transfers 12 ,3 13 I14- 14 .5 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31, lg-7 /?27 Balance on Current Account 5u. T57 _ /o/ 4 -

Direct Foreign Investment 21 53 53 1` 37 fn Net MLT Borrowing 64 94| 99 :,2 187 341 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 1,01-4 Disbursements (ll9)(i57)(168XZlw; 260)( 4#2) Non-Guaranteed Private Debt .. . Amortizat4o.a (-%54)6&6;X96q-70X-73)(( *) Total outstanding & Disbursed

Capital Grants 9 J/ 10 . 7 DEBT SERVICE RATIOforl19'5't '1 Other Capital (net) 13-II 20 2 1$ i _ Other items n.e.i -33-43 -47 - -513 °i Increase in Reserves (+) -124 744 6$ 7T -ff3 8 Public Debt. incl. guaranteed 18 Non-Guaranteed Private Deht

Net Reser-ves (end year) 1,67 II( ],:rp 11 21 ;6~ Total outstanding & Disbursed

/t4 77 RATE OF EXCHANGE IBRD/IDA LENDING, December 4976 (Million US $)

Through Octcber 31 1972 IBRD IDA US $ 1.00 = $b11.8 _r .b 1.00 = US $ 0.084 Outstanding & Disbursed V7-r3 !2 I 3.52 ( Undisbursed 92.c 1170 11.4 S 8 Since Octcber 31, 1972 Outstanding incl. Undisbursed 119.3.Ig 64.6 -%S/ US $ 1.00 = $b 20.00 $b 1.0 = us $ 0.05

6/ Estimated 7/ Annual Average 7/ N;atural gas exports started mid-1972.

not available

not applicable

February 28, 1977 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

9q7?tRecent Economic Developments

10675 i. During the six-year period 1971-76, Bolivia experienced sustained ,17267economic growth at an unprecedented pace. Growing domestic savings and w67/ greatly increased capital flows have made possible rising levels of consumption and investment, and GDP has increased steadily at annual rates averaging ,_Z6%. 1/ The following factors have been fundamental in the process of growth: 100 ,0continued political stability, better management of public institutions and g1 of the economy, and the increase in hydrocarbons prices. These have led to greatly increased confidence in the future of the Bolivian economy and have 361 been the main factors in explaining expanded investment and foreign capital inflows.

ii. Despite continued high levels of economic growth in 1975-76, Bolivia has felt the impact of the slowdown in world economic activity. In 1974, the Bolivian economy benefitted from high prices and active demand for most of its main export products. This had a favorable impact on the balance of payments, on the level of economic activity and fiscal performance. There was a record trade surplus of US$164 million and a reserve gain of US$124 million. GDP increased by 5.2%. The Central Government recorded an unprecedented current account surplus and the overall monetary impact of budgetary operations was contractionary.

iii. In 1975, however, the external factors were unfavorable with falling demand for and prices of Bolivia's basic export products. Despite this, the Bolivian economy continued to grow at a rapid pace stimulated by substantial gains in agricultural output and construction activities. However, there was a deterioration in the country's balance of payments and fiscal performance. In contrast to the current account surplus in 1974, a deficit of more than US$190 million was registered in 1975 as a result of continued rapid merchandise import growth (36%) and a decline (16%) in exports. Consequently, there was a net loss of foreign exchange of about US$55 million, despite large capital inflows. This situation prompted the authorities to tighten import restrictions through import prohibitions and the introduction of an import deposit requirement.

iv. The favorable performance of public finances could not be sustained in 1975. Current revenue fell, mainly due to declining export tax receipts -and to increased tax incentives for companies reinvesting profits in the country. Current expenditures increased relative to GDP despite tightly controlled wages, largely because of the significant expansion of transfers

1/ Bank estimates of GDP growth differ somewhat from official data as the weight assigned to the rural subsistence sector is greater in Bank estimates. However, Bolivia's national accounts are now being revised. - ii -

to the rest of the public sector. As a result, public sector savings fell from 12% of GDP in 1974 to 7.2% of GDP in 1975. At the end of the year the Government decided to take measures to accelerate revenue growth. The corporate profit tax was reinstated and the implementation of the income tax reform and some discretionary measures to increase stamp taxes and those on tobacco and alcoholic beverages were introduced. For the longer term, a group headed by Harvard Professor R. Musgrave was established to study the country's fiscal system and recommend improvements. v. Economic growth continued at a fairly rapid rate in 1976 with the recovery in mining activities compensating for the slowdown in the agricultural and construction sectors. As a result, GDP increased by 6.5%. The balance of payments improved because of a 17% expansion of merchandise exports and a substantial deceleration of import growth; down to only 2%. As a result, there was a significant reduction in the current account deficit from about US$190 to US$140 million, despite increased interest payments. Bolivia continued to attract substantial financing from foreign commercial banks, enabling it to finance the current account deficit and accumulate an additional US$53 million in foreign exchange reserves. On the negative side, fiscal performance has continued to be troublesome as the result of increased operational deficits of decentralized and state-owned enterprises and tax- revenue losses due to the slow down of imports. Increased Central Government transfers to the rest of the public sector have been financed mainly by general purpose borrowing from foreign commercial banks. vi. Economic policy in Bolivia is being directed at sustaining economic growth in the 6-7% range while restoring balance to the fiscal accounts and external transactions. The Government is attempting to hold down the growth of domestic and import expenditures for consumption, while expanding investment, strengthening its revenue base, increasing the buoyancy of the domestic tax system, rationalizing policies affecting foreign trade and improving public sector institutions and services. The Government specifically intends to continue implementing the new mineral and personal income tax schemes while reducing transfers to state enterprises. Wage restraint will be followed, with increases linked to changes in productivity. A plan for a general law of export promotion is under consideration, as is a significant revision of tariffs and import controls. vii. The balance of payments outlook for 1977 continues to be positive. Export prospects for minerals, particularly for tin, have improved as prices and demand in industrialized countries have increased. The authorities are confident that commercial production from the new Montecristo oil field will be possible by mid-1977, thus reversing the present downward trend of output. Nevertheless, there are no plans to change the heavily subsidized domestic price of hydrocarbon derivatives, particularly of gasoline, that affect adversely exportable oil surpluses and imposes a considerable burden on YPFB's financial position and on its development possibilities. Exports are projected to increase by about 13%. A moderate import expansion, in the range of 12-15%, is also expected, largely reflecting the investment requirements of the hydrQcarbons and minerals sectors. This suggests that key economic sectors will continue reducing the stockpiles of imported intermediate goods accumulated during the 1975 import boom. Nevertheless, the current account deficit can be expected to increase between US$170 and US$200 million. However, external borrowing associated with this deficit should not be incompatible with the country's longer term debt servicing capacity.

Sectoral Growth Prospects viii. The increase in world energy prices has led to an intensification of the search for new petroleum and natural gas reserves in Bolivia. The country has long been considered to have the geological potential to be a significant producer of hydrocarbons and the increase in prices has overcome cost factors which had been limiting exploration activity. Both YPFB, the state oil company, and foreign firms have intensified exploration, opening up the possibility of reversing the downward trend of oil production and substantially increasing output of natural gas. This could provide a basis for accelerated growth of exports, income and employment toward the end of the decade. ix. Exploration and field development efforts are underway and prospects for discovering additional hydrocarbon reserves, particularly gas, are good. However, expansion of production will require a substantial investment effort over at least three years. While there is always the risk that reserves may not be found or will take longer to develop than anticipated, results so far have been encouraging. The Government has planned an extremely ambitious program of investments for the sector. Because of the magnitude of investment under consideration, care must be taken to assure that it is within the technical capacity of the executing agencies, that the planning horizon is real- istic and that sound criteria are applied for selecting individual projects. x. Despite having considerable growth potential, expansion of the agricultural sector is subject to serious social and institutional constraints. While growth of commercial agriculture has been satisfactory, stagnation of the traditional small-farm subsistence subsector, which affects the bulk of the population more directly, is still the country's most difficult socio- economic problem. Government programs to stimulate commercial output in the lowlands through a combination of preferential credit, infrastructure investment, extension services, land clearing and marketing facilities have been quite successful. However, the Government has not yet been able to develop a comprehensive development program for the highland subsistence sector. Programs to promote migration have not been successful. Promotion of cooperative use of capital and upgrading of cultivation practices and improvement of marketing facilities have not been applied extensively. The Government is now giving high priority to raising living standards of subsistence farmers. This will require a whole spectrum of supporting services including research and extension, marketing systems for products and inputs, credit resources and delivery facilities. Still improvements in health services and education will also be necessary to achieve increased production. It is recognized that intensified support for traditional agriculture will require institutional reforms in public agencies servicing the sector and upgrading of their professional staffs. These changes should include creation of an organization for formulating and implementing integrated rural development projects. - iv - xi. Mining, historically considered the backbone of the Bolivian economy, now accounts for only 11% of GDP and provides employment for just 3% of the labor force. It nevertheless has provided nearly 75% of merchandise exports and 25% of Central Government current revenue over the past decade. At present, mining in Bolivia is a high-cost operation. Development of the sector has been hampered by both natural obstacles and institutional weaknesses. Low investment in exploration and mining development over extended periods has limited productive potential. Private exploration was prohibited until recently in large tracts of potentially mineralized areas held by the Govern- ment or the State Mining Company (COMIBOL) as fiscal reserves. The scarcity of credit has inhibited growth in the sector's productive capacity. Prior to IDA's first mining credit for medium-sized mines, there was no adequate term- financing available to the private sector. This situation persists for many small mines. Management needs improvement. There is a particularly acute shortage of competence at middle levels. Infrastructure deficiencies, especially in transportation, energy supply, and marketing of concentrates pose further impediments to expanding output. Since its creation in 1952, CO0MIBOL has been subject to serious problems of over-centralization, under-capitaliza- tion, depletion of high-grade ores, inefficient use of labor, and excessive welfare expenditures. The Government recognizes that its long-term rehabili- tation is a basic condition for development of the mining sector and recently appointed a new management team. xii. One of the most serious obstacles to the development of the mining sector lies in the tax structure. At present, mining enterprises are essentially taxed on their gross exports at rates varying with both the mineral content of ore and the prevailing export price. Tax treatment is similar for enterprises of vastly different conditions and cost structures. In addition, this form of taxation prevents the proper participation of the Treasury in the sector's profits when prices and export receipts are high, while the tax is overly burdensome in situations of low prices and export receipts. The Govern- ment is considering a gradual change in the basis of mining taxation from the current production tax to, initially, a presumptive tax with progressive rates and, eventually to a net profit tax. While careful consideration should be given to any possible loss of revenue due to the shift in the tax system, the changes proposed would definitely be beneficial to the long-term development of the sector. xiii. Bolivia's mining sector has significant growth potential. The Government is designing policies which would facilitate that growth. The authorities have recently opened government reserves to private exploration in joint ventures with public entities. A fund has been established to facilitate financing of explorat:ion by private as well as. public enterprises. The Government's plans also include diversification of mining output and expansion of local smelting and refining capacity. The objective of expanding processing raises issues concerning the viability of a large-scale metallurgical industry in Bolivia, in general, as well as the financial and economic feasibility of particular projects. Current output and presently proven reserves of some minerals would seem insufficient to provide adequate supplies of concentrates over the lifetime of some proposed metallurgical projects. xiv. The present very small contribution of manufacturing to GDP reflects Bolivia's early stage of industrial development. Most manufacturing production is essentially inward-oriented and, given the limited purchasing power of the population and the small size of the domestic market, the possibilities for expansion are severely limited. Industrial development is also hampered by a dearth of entrepreneurial and labor skills, as well as by insufficient longer-term credit. Despite these obstacles, industrial investment has begun to expand more rapidly recently, stimulated by the liberal incentive laws of 1971 and by the favorable investment climate. While growth of the domestic market can be expected and some opportunities will open up in the Andean Group, the future of Bolivian industrialization seems to lie in the development of a diversified manufacturing sector based on the transformation of the country's natural resources (agricultural, mining and hydrocarbon-related).

Longer-Term Growth Prospects xv. Bolivia should be able to sustain annual GDP growth in the 5-6% range during the remainder of the 1970s. Within this range the pace of growth will depend heavily on the evolution of the hydrocarbons sector. More rapid development of this sector could result in growth at the higher end of the range, with some acceleration in the early 1980s as the full balance-of- payments impact of hydrocarbon exports is felt. If exploration efforts are less successful and investment proceeds more slowly, growth could still pro- ceed closer to the 5% end of the range. In either case, sustaining relatively rapid growth will require reversal of the downward trend of mining output and continued expansion of commercial agriculture. xvi. Both the lower and higher growth alternatives will require Bolivia to make a substantial saving effort over the next few years. Under the higher growth alternative investment would have to average 23% of GDY and under the lower growth alternative investment averaging 21% of GDY would be required. Even with substantial foreign investment in the hydrocarbons sector (especially in the higher growth alternative), marginal savings rates of 13-15% would be required. This could be attained iE annual growth of consumption were held to 5-6% in 1977-80, which would still permit a significant increase in per capita consumption. xvii. Because of the important position which the public sector occupies, particularly in the main export generating sectors, the Government will have to play the major role in the investment effort over the next few years. During the four-year period 1977-80, public sector investment would have to reach US$1.2 billion under the lower growth alternative and US$1.4 billion under the higher growth option (in constant 1974 prices). xviii. Recent measures taken by the Government, including personal income and mining tax reforms, are expected to improve public sector savings, and these savings could finance about 50% of total public investment during 1977-80. This would leave a gap equivalent to US$0.8-US$1.0 billion in current prices to be covered by foreign borrowing. In addition, amortization - vi - payments of between US$450 and US$500 million will be due between 1977 and 1980. Gross external capital requirements for 1977-80 would, therefore, be approaching US$1.2 billion in the lower growth case and US$1.5 billion in the higher growth case. xix. The "projectizable" portion of planned public investment and its foreign exchange component will be significantly higher than in the past. Of public investment likely to be carried out during 1977-80, about 90% may be "projectizable" with a foreign exchange component of 80% for hydrocarbon and mining investment and 70% for the remainder. If external lenders were to finance only foreign exchange component of projects, external resources transferred to the public sector would fall short of external capital requirements by about US$95 million in current prices. In order to close this gap external lenders, therefore, would have to be prepared to finance a proportion of local cost of public investment. xx. Projections of total exports for 1980 are rather similar in the lower and higher growth alternatives. In either case, total exports are likely to reach about US$850 million by 1980, implying a growth rate of somewhat over 13%. Because of the time lags involved in bringing hydrocarbon reserves into production, discoveries of new reserves made over the next few years will have only modest impact on exports before 1980. Increases in these exports will largely be governed by discoveries already made and expansion of gas exports to Argentina. Substantial gas exports to Brazil are unlikely before 1980. The full impact of more intensive development of the hydrocarbon sector would be felt in the 1981-85 period when growth of total exports would accelerate to over 17% in the higher growth alternative. If hydrocarbon production, refining and shipping facilities are expanded as currently envisaged, the sector would become the country's dominant export activity during the early 1980s. xxi. The lower growth alternative implies more than 5% annual rate of growth of import volume, wtLile the higher growth alternative would require a rate of growth of imports of over 9%, because of the import requirements associated with more rapid development of the hydrocarbons sector. With the expected increase in prices, imports would increase by over 18% per year in the higher and by more than 13% in the lower growth case. Even if imports of non-essential goods are compressed and growth of imports is reduced through substitution programs, the resource gap is expected to widen under the higher growth alternative. In addition, interest payments abroad will increase, reflecting heavier utilization of foreign loans. Thus, increasing deficits on current account can be expected. xxii. Capital inflows required to cover current account deficits, amortization of existing debt and assure the maintenance of appropriate levels of external reserves are estimated to average about US$347 million (in current prices) annually during 1977-80 in the case of the lower growth alternative and US$464 million in the case of the higher growth alternative. The larger requirements in the second case are expected to be covered partly by increased foreign direct private investment (mainly in hydrocarbons) and partly by - vii -

increased medium- and long-term loans. The public sector, whose share in investment is likely to grow further, would have to resort to external capital markets at the tune of US$310 million annually in the case of the first alternative and probably US$370 million in the second. Although institutional and bilateral lenders will probably be prepared to increase their assistance for suitable projects, a proportion ranging between 20% and 30% of external capital required by the public sector will have to be mobilized through financial and suppliers' credits.

Debt Service and Creditworthiness xxiii. The expectation that Bolivia will be able to raise its export earnings significantly has greatly improved its access to the international capital market. It is natural and even desirable for a country at Bolivia's stage of development to wish to borrow in anticipation of increased foreign exchange earnings to expand the resources available to the economy in the interim. However, if the expansion of external debt of relatively short maturity exceeds the pace reached during 1975 and 1976, debt service obligations could increase to the point where even a relatively minor delay in the hydrocarbons program could result in external liquidity problems by the late 1970s or early 1980s. It is important, therefore, that Bolivia exercise restraint in the growth of aggregate expenditure and monitor the accumulation of external debt very carefully. xxiv. Bolivia's external debt outstanding and disbursed at the end of 1976 amounted to US$1 billion. Service on external debt amounted to 18.8% of exports of goods and non-factor services net of investment income abroad. Average terms of the external debt have worsened as 46% of the newly contracted public debt over the last two years has been lent by commercial banks. This, and the substantial borrowing envisaged for the next few years, may well result in a rise in the debt service ratio to 24% by 1980. xxv. Bolivia possesses considerable natural resources for development and recent experience suggests that the economy responds favorably to sound economic management. The Government has made important advances towards formulating a coherent and consistent set of overall economic policies and has released the first volume of its five-year development plan (1976-80). The planning function of the Ministry of Planning and Coordination has been strengthened, an Institute for Pre-Investment Studies and Project Preparation (INALPRE) has been created under the Ministry and external borrowing has been centralized in the Institute for External Financing (INDEF) of the Ministry of Finance. A high level National Project Committee has been created to select priority projects aimed at achieving the rather ambitious targets of the Five-Year Plan and to approve all future foreign loans. At the same time, the Government is broadening its revenue base and improving its monetary management. The authorities are also seeking foreign technical assistance to improve the statistical base to improve decision-making on many important social and economic matters. While significant progress has been made recently, much remains to be done to develop the country's rich natural resources, build - viii - the requisite infrastructure, improve human resources and increase the standard of living of the subsistence sector. Nevertheless, if the current course of economic policy is sustained, the long-term growth and balance-of-payments prospects are good. Bolivia's capital requirements for development are large, but if external capital is mobilized prudently, the debt service should be held within manageable proportions. Under these circumstances, Bolivia's creditworthiness could improve sufficiently to render it eligible for reasonable enlargement of external lending on conventional terms. xxvi. The levels of both investment and external borrowing which are now anticipated for Bolivia may seem high by comparison with the past. However, the country has both extensive undeveloped natural resources and improving economic management. In these circumstances it makes good sense to adopt a strategy of expanded investment financed in large measure from external sources. The resulting expansion of the modern sector of the economy will provide employment opportunities for those who choose to migrate from the traditional sector as well as generate public revenues to finance expanding direct efforts to raise levels of output and income within the traditional sector. CHAPTER I

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

1. The process of relatively rapid growth of the Bolivian economy which began in 1971 continued into 1976 with GDP growth of about 6.5%. This was the sixth consecutive year of growth exceeding 5%. Improved economic performance can be attributed to the stable political situation and better management of public institutions and of the economy. This has contributed to an improvement in the international financial community's assessment of Bolivia's creditworthiness which has allowed the country greatly expanded access to the European and U.S. capital markets. Bolivia's improved credit standing, in addition to reflecting confidence in its political stability and economic management, has been bolstered by its status as a producer, albeit minor, of hydrocarbons and by the prospect of increased reserves and output of petroleum and natural gas in the near future. There are, indeed, good prospects that these increases in production and exports will be forthcoming and that the country will be able to sustain the high rates of growth achieved in recent years.

2. There has been a significant expansion of investment in Bolivia since 1973. Growth of investment has averaged about 20% per year over the period 1974-76 and has risen from 16.2% of GDY in 1973 to an average of over 22% in 1975-76. The expansion of investment activity has been led by increased outlays for exploration and development in the hydrocarbons sector, by an acceleration of investment in mining and by heavy private investment in agriculture and agroindustry. (The latter can be seen in project approvals of the National Investment Institute, Appendix Table 8.2.)

3. Year-to-year changes in Bolivia's saving performance are strongly influenced by movements in the country's terms of trade and by government policies affecting wages in the public and private sector. During 1971-72 a strong deterioration in the terms of trade, with adverse implications for fiscal revenues, coincided with an acceleration of Central Government current expenditures. The budgetary deficit increased sharply, producing strong inflationary pressures. In late 1972 the Government was forced to devalue in the hope of stabilizing the fiscal and balance-of-payments situations. This measure proved to be ineffective as the Government could not hold the line on wages and the devaluation was followed by rapid inflation. This resulted in poor saving performance during 1972-73. While the dramatic improvement in the terms of trade in 1974 resulted in a strong recovery of savings, this was eroded somewhat during 1975-76 and saving declined to an average of about 15% of GDP during these two years. Table 1: EVOLUTION OF DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 1973-75 (Mil US$ at 1974 Prices)

As Percent of GDY 1973 1974 1975 1976 1973 1974 1975 1976

Gross Domestic Product 1,606 1,686 1,787 1,903 116.1 100.0 105.1 106.0 Gains from Terms of Trade -223 -- -87 -107 16.1 --- -5.1 -6.0 Gross Domestic Income 1,383 1,686 1,700 1,796 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Imports (Incl. NFS) 409 519 615 600 29.6 30.8 36.2 33.4 Exports (Incl. NFS) -381 -588 -459 -509 27.5 34.9 27.0 28.3 Resource Balance (-= inc.) -28 +69 -156 -91 2.0 -4.1 -9.2 -5.1

Consumption Expenditure 1,187 1,336 1,474 1,496 85.8 79.2 86.7 83.3 Investment 224 281 382 391 16.2 16.7 22.5 21.8

Domestic Savings 196 350 227 300 14.2 20.8 13.4 16.7 National Savings 187 331 211 273 13.5 19.6 12.4 15.2

Source: Statistical Appendix, Table 2.6 - 3 -

4. The rapid growth of national product and income in recent years has not been paralleled by a similar expansion of employment. Concentration of investment in relatively capital-intensive sectors such as hydrocarbons, transport, and mineral processing has generated relatively little additional employment. Moreover, social and cultural factors inhibiting migration from the Altiplano to tropical and subtropical lowlands where agricultural activity is expanding rapidly have restricted growth of employment. Failure of labor to migrate in sufficient quantities to new agricultural areas in Santa Cruz, and, to a lesser extent, the Beni, have encouraged premature mechanization. Thus, traditional agriculture and services have remained the most important employers country-wide and government entities have acted, in some respects, as employers of last resort. While open unemployment has remained about 5% of the labor force over the period 1974-76, underemployment is estimated at about 30%, as the low productivity of the traditional agricultural'and services sectors would suggest.

5. The improved economic performance of recent years while raising per capita GNP has not resulted in a significant change in the basic structure of the economy nor in the living standards of the majority of the population. Despite the recent acceleration of growth, long periods of virtual stagnation, in part due to Bolivia's history of political instability and frequent changes in economic policy, have left the country with a severely limited productive capacity, despite favorable resource endowment, an infrastructure inadequate to the country's terrain and goegraphic isolation, and extreme poverty and low nutritional and educational levels of a vast majority of the population.

Public Finances

6. The public sector of the Bolivian economy is large by Latin American standards and is continuing to grow. The nationalization of large private mines in 1952 and the incorporation of the Gulf Oil Company's holdings into the state oil company in 1969 resulted in the formation of the two largest public enterprises, COMIBOL and YPFB, which dominate the major commodity export sectors, mining and hydrocarbons, respectively, and together generate nearly 60% of merchandise exports. The public sector presently accounts for over one-third of GDP and for about 70% of fixed investment. It employs between 25% and 30% of the non-agricultural work force. Public sector fiscal performance has generally not been strong and generation of savings has not been adequate relative to the country's investment requirements. The weak- ness of the fiscal system has been a product of heavy reliance on taxes on foreign trade (an unstable and vulnerable source of revenue), of shortcomings in tax administration, and of unrestrained increases in current expenditures. Frequent amnesties granted by the Government have made tax collection even more difficult. Low salaries and limited career opportunities for tax offi- cials and auditors have made it difficult to attract and retain competent staff. Table 2: PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCES, 1970-76

Annual Change As 7. of GDP at Market Prices (% p.a.; 1974 prices) 1970-72 1973 1974 1975 1976.! 1970-72 1973 1974 1975 1976

CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

Current Revenues 12.4 13.7 17.2 16.1 15.3 4.7 17.3 32.2 -1.0 Excluding Taxes from State Enterprises (11.7) (10.5) (11.0) (1.3) (-0.6) (9.6) (15.2) Current Expenditures 13.7 13.7 14.6 14.3 14.7 11.9 1.4 11.7 4.8 Current Account Surplus/Deficit (-) -1.3 -- 2.6 1.8 0.6 Capital Expenditures 3.2 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 40.1 -2.9 5.2 Overall Surplus/Deficit (-) 3/ 4.1 -4.3 -1.3 -2.2 -3.5 o/w Financing through Central 2/ 2/ Bank (1.9) (1.1) (-1.4)-- (-1.0)-

CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR

Current Revenues 4/ 17.8 20.0 25.7 20.6 20.2 6.9 16.3 28.8 -7.4 Current Expenditures 13.2 13.4 13.3 13.5 13.6 9.5 6.7 8.9 5.6 Current Account Surplus/Deficit (-) 4.6 6.6 12.4 7.1 6.6 Capital Expenditures 5/ 13.5 8.9 10.4 10.3 10.4 5.4 1.0 22.2 5.4 Overall Surplus/Deficit (-) 3/ -11.3 -4.2 -1.6 -5.6 -7.1 o/w Financing through Central Bank 3.3 2.6 1.4 1.7

1/ Provisional 2/ Increased Deposits. 3/ "Overall Surplus/Deficit" includes "Other Revenue" (not shown here, but detailed in Table 5.5 in the Statistical Appendix) as well as "Capital Expenditures" so that the percentages presented do not in general sum precisely. 4/ Excluding Public Export Enterprises. 5/ Gross Fixed Investment.

Source: Statistical Appendix, Tables 5.4 and 5.5 7. Central Government finances improved substantially in 1973-74 as a result of the exceptionally rapid growth of foreign trade and the Government's efforts to improve tax administration. Public savings increased from an average of 4.6% of GDP in 1970-72 to 6.6% in 1973 and 12.4% in 1974. The strong response of tax revenues to the increase in export earnings was partly due to a 20% ad valorem export tax enacted in late 1972 to capture a portion of the windfall gains from the devaluation of the peso. This levy together with import duties accounted for most of the increase in tax revenue in 1973 and 1974. In addition, customs duty receipts increased as the composition of imports shifted toward more highly taxed consumer durables.

8. A major tax reform, designed to help to correct fundamental weaknesses in the tax system, was enacted in October 1973. It included: (i) an increase in the company income tax rate from 25% to 30%; (ii) unification of the schedular personal income taxes into a single global levy; (iii) modifica- tions in the sales tax in order to ensure better control; (iv) introduction of a luxury tax; and (v) simplification of specific taxes on alcoholic beverages. The overall objectives of this tax reform included greater equity, improved efficiency of tax administration through fewer taxes, simplified schedules and increased revenue. Only the company tax increase, which contributed to a doubling of company tax payments, and the single-stage tax on sales were implemented during 1974. The sales tax reduced the number of taxpayers, thereby facilitating enforcement. Firms acting as retention agents, previously exempt from taxation on sales to each other, are now subject to the unitary sales tax. The unified income tax scheduled for January 1975, has not yet been fully implemented. Meanwhile, tax liabilities are being calculated according to the former legislation governing personal services but only 80% of that amount is being levied. The 20% reduction is intended to reflect the lower scale of marginal rates incorporated into the reform. The scale to be implemented would be more progressive with lower marginal rates for lower brackets, rising substantially at the upper end of the scale. Although a step in the right direction, this reform does not resolve the problem of under- taxation of agriculture relative to mining and industry.

9. Favorable fiscal performance of 1973-74 was not sustained in 1975. Despite a significant expansion of import tax receipts, current revenues fell, mainly due to disappointing performance of the tax revenue generated by export activities and to a decreed reduction in the tax ratio for companies investing over one-half of their profits in the country. Current expenditures continued to increase despite tightly controlled public sector salary levels; this was caused in large measure by increasing transfers to the rest of the public sector. At the same time, COMIBOL became a net dissaver in 1975, mainly because of the depressed conditions of mineral export markets. As a result public sector savings fell from 12.4% of GDP in 1974 to 7.2% of GDP in 1975.

10. While capital expenditures remained at the level reached in 1974, 10% of GDP, the composition of fixed capital formation, shifted in favor of agriculture, whose share increased from the very low level of 3% in 1974 to nearly 6% in 1975. Most investment continued to go for hydrocarbons, transport and communications, mining and manufacturing, although their sharing in -6- total fixed investment decreased from 79% in 1974 to 72% in 1975. The proportion of fixed investment: allocated to education and health was also increased somewhat in 1975.

11. Poor performance of revenues continued in 1976, largely as the result of a significant cutback in the growth of imports, especially heavily taxed consumer durables. This offset the gains resulting from a recovery of export tax revenues which reflected a moderate improvement of export volumes and world prices of Bolivia's principal exports.

12. Spurred on by the mounting deficit, which reached 3.5% of GDP for the Central Government and 7.1% for the public sector in 1976, the Government has continued implementing the tax reform of 1973 and has enacted additional discretionary and administrative measures aimed at increasing tax collections and ensuring better control of outlays of decentralized public enterprises. These measures include: (a) imposition of a 35% excise tax on gasoline price increase in 1975; (b) reestablishment of the corporate income tax at the 30% rate; (c) enactment of a presumptive income tax for small business; (d) requirement of external auditing for all enterprises with at least US$0.5 million in assets or US$1.0 million in sales; (e) establishment of a single consolidated register of taxpayers; and (f) imposition of automatic deduction of production tax levies from COMIBOL and YPFB revenues. (In the past these enterprises often diverted tax revenues owed to the Central Government to finance their own operations.) These measures have not yet had a significant impact on revenues, suggesting the necessity of strengthening the limited administrative capabilities that constrain the possibility of improving the efficiency of the tax system.

13. There was a substantial increase in the money supply (on the order of 35%) in 1976 as a result of government borrowing from the monetary authorities and monetization of reserves. Commercial banks now have substantial excess reserves. The Government recognizes that this presents an inflationary threat and intends to absorb the excess liquidity by issuing "stabiliza- tion bonds" or increasing reserve requirements.

Balance of Payments

14. The economy of Bolivia is very open and virtually all of its modern sector is closely tied to foreign trade. Exports and imports of goods and nonfactor services are each equal to about one-third of GDP. As might be expected, given its stage of development, Bolivia generally shows a deficit on the current account of the balance of payments. However, the country traditionally has attained small trade surpluses, varying from year to year with fluctuations in the prices of its principal exports. These trade surpluses have, however, not been sufficiently large to offset substantial service deficits (both factor and nonfactor) and Bolivia has, therefore, required substantial amounts of external capital in order to finance its current account deficit and short-term capital outflows. Net long-term public inflows--the main source of external capital--amounted to over US$500 million (net) over 1971-76. - 7 -

TABLE 3: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT REVENUE AND EXPENDITURES, 1970-76 (b$ millions)

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975- 1976

CURRENT REVENUE 1,368.7 1,641.2 2,838.0 5,798.3 6,510.7 7,529.3

Taxes 1,051.4 1,292.9 2,375.5 5.015.9 5.481.6 6,300.7

On Income and Property 209,9 219.2 310.8 468.4 577.0 1,008.6 On Production, Consumption and Domestic Transactions 347.6 436.9 798.2 1,688.0 1,987.5 2 305.1 Production Tax on YPFB 53.5 68.9 278'.6 883.3 819.9 1,173.0 Sales and Excise Taxes 189.4 249.9 335.3 463.2 590.8 616.4 Other 104.7 118.1 184.3 341.5 576.8 515.7 On Foreign Trade 464.0 636.8 1,260.3 2.836.7 2,916.8 2,987.0 Export Taxes 47.5 182.1 642.9 1,704.8 1,120.8 1,275.3 Small and Medium Mining Royalties (44.1) (39.1) (156.6) (371.4) (199.6) (248.3) COMIBOL Royalties ( - ) ( - ) (28.3) (531.9) (278.7) (410.7)

Ad Valorem Export Tax ( - ) (139.0) (452.2) (801.0) (622.2) (588.9) Agricultural Export Tax (3.4) (4.0) (5.8) (0.5) (2 .3 )a/ (27.4) Import Taxes 377.1 418.2 517.4 947.3 1,552.4 1,459.7 1.6 Percent Tax on Exchange Sales 39.4 36.5 100.0 184.6 243.6 252.0 Tax Amnesty and Taxes Due from Previous Years 29.9 - 6.2 22.8 0.3 _

Non-tax Revenue 337.3 348.3 462.5 782.4 1,029.1 1,228.6

Postal and Communication Fees 8.3 7.9 10.0 8.0 11.2 15.0 Consular Fees 6.5 11.7 17.4 20.6 100.7 118.7 Fees Collected by Ministries 50.4 59.3 57.1 220.0 304.0 317.3 Revenue of Decentralized Agencies 225.1 251.9 356.0 508.6 564.4 675.5 Other 27.0 17.5 22.0 25.2 48.8 102.1

CURRENT EXPENDITURE 1,564.8 1,901.9 2,8L3.8 4,907.4 5,785.7 7,225.3

Wages and Salaries 1,017.1 1,219.6 1,752.5 2,587.3 2,993.9 3,754.9 Goods and Services 233.3 321.0 582.7 737.4 1,156.6 1,471.1 Current Transfers 220.6 267.4 363.7 1,420.8 1,453.6 1,790.5 To Private Sector (165.3) (208.7) (269.1) (567.3) (534.2) (684.0) To Rest of Public Sector (52.9) (51.2) (81.4) (834.7) (858.9) (1,045.4) To International Institutions (2.4) (7.5) (13.2) (18.8) (60.5) (61.1) Interest on Public Debt 88.3 87.9 144.9 161.9 180.8 208.8 Other 5.5 6.0 - - 0.7 -

1/ Provisional 2/ Consists of exports on rice and cotton 3/ Includes contributions to CNSS and Conavi

Source: Statistical Appendix, Tables 5.6 and 5.7; Mission Estimates 14. While there had been some diversification of the export base in the early 1970s, largely because of the decline in tin exports relative to other minerals, hydrocarbons and agricultural products, tin still accounted for 40% of total exports in 1974. Bolivia's balance-of-payments position was generally weak during this period as mineral export prices sagged. Slow export growth was coupled with rapidly rising imports. The import pull was caused by growing fiscal deficits, aggravated by inventory accumulation, and accelerated private short-term capital outflows. The deterioration of the balance of payments forced the Government to devalue the peso (68%) in late 1972.

15. The significant improvement in the balance of payments that started at the end of 1973 and continued through 1974 cannot to any significant extent be attributed to devaluation. The 92% increase in exports in 1974 was largely the result of increased world prices for hydrocarbons, and, to a lesser extent, for minerals. Export volumes actually decreased somewhat, while imports accelerated. Capital goods showed a definite upswing, reflecting increasing investment, and imports of consumer goods--particularly durables--also increased considerably. The trade surplus was large enough to offset the substantial service deficit (both factor and non-factor), leaving an unprecedented current account surplus of US$50 million which, combined with a substantial net capital inflow produced an overall balance-of-payments surplus of US$124 million.

16. The foreign sector showed quite a different picture in 1975 as recession in the industrialized countries and reduction of speculative stockpiles of raw materials accumulated in these countries during 1973-74 caused a sharp decline in the prices of Bolivia's exports. Most mineral prices declined steadily from their 1974 peak levels during 1975. Efforts by the International Tin Council to sustain prices by imposing export quotas were not effective. Petroleum exports were adversely affected by a reduction in crude oil output due to declining proven reserves and by difficulties in the first part of the year in locating markets for the country's light petroleum at the average price obtained in 1974. At the same time, the exportable surplus of crude oil was significantly reduced by a rapid increase in domestic consumption of hydrocarbon derivatives. Internal petroleum consumption has been increasing rapidly partly because of low domestic gasoline prices. On the positive side, a significant price increase for natural gas was obtained from Argentina (i.e., from US$0.65 to US$0.82 per thousand cubic feet) permit- ting a proportional increase in export earnings. However, because of a con- tractual limitation on exports to Argentina, the only external market that can, at present, be reached via pipeline, export volumes could not be increased. Total export volume dropped by 10% in 1975, which together with the softening of prices produced a 16.2% decline in total exports.

17. In contrast, import volume increased by some 18%. The composition and growth of imports was strongly influenced by Government policies. Liberal- ization of imports, particularly of consumer durables and automobiles, resulted in substantially higher imports of these items. Capital goods imports continued to increase, reflecting growing public investment. The share of raw materials Table 4: SUMMARY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (US$ million)

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

Imports of Goods-and NFS 227.5 260.6 332.4 518.9 682.4 708.5 Exports of Goods and NFS 198.3 224.7 310.1 588.1 510.3 601.1 Resource Balance -29.2 -35.9 -22.3 69.2 -172.1 -107.4 Net Factor Services -17.0 -21.8 -24.8 -31.0 - 31.4 -46.9 Transfers, Net 7.1 13.4 15.4 12.0 13.0 14.0

Current Account -39.1 -44.3 -31.7 50.2 -190.5 -140.3

Private Direct Investment 1.9 -13.4 4.6 20.8 53.4 37.0 Official Capital Grants -- 8.0 10.0 9.0 10.5 7.0 Public M & LT Loans 50.1 100.5 15.7 64.3 99.3 186.6 Disbursements (70.2) (132.8) (48.6) (118.6) (168.7) (259.6) Amortization (-20.1) (-32.3) (-32.9) (-54.3) (-69.4) (-73.0) Other M & L Loans 11.9 15.1 16.9 13.0 19.7 15.3 Use of IMF Resources 4.0 4.3 ------Short Term and Unidentified (Net) Errors & Omissions -35.1 -53.4 -30.9 -33.5 -47.0 -52.7 Change in Net Reserves (-= Increase) 6.3 -16.8 15.4 -123.8 54.6 -52.9 Table 5: VALUE, COMPOSITION AND GROWTH OF MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS, 1971-73, 1974, 1975 AND 1976

(US$ Millions and Percent)

Value Composition Growth Contribution to Growth (US$ Millions (%) () 1971-73 1974 1975 1976 1971-73 1974 1975 1976 1971-73 1974 1975 1976 1971-73 1974 1975 1976 (Average) (Average) (Average) (Average)

TOTAL EXPORTS 222.7 553.9 464.0 544.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 24.9 95.1 16.2 17.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Minerals Tin 97.5 15)2.4 152.8 191.1 43.8 37.4 32.9 35.1 11.5 75.4 -20.6 25.1 20.1 25.1 -50.0 48.3 Other 25.7 62.8 54.3 64.1 11.5 11.3 11.7 11.8 31.4 74.9 -13.5 18.0 14.5 8.1 -11.3 11.9 Hydrocarbons Crude Petroleum 33.3 156.8 111.4 114.3 15.0 28.3 24.0 21.0 43.0 235.0 -29.0 2.6 26.1 52.6 -49.3 3.4 Natural Gas 9.3 28.9 42.5 56.4 4,2 5.2 9.2 10.4 - 61.4 47.1 32.7 17.2 3.1 24.6 18.2 Agricultural and Other Products 56.9 113.0 103.0 118.1 25.S 20.4 22.2 21.7 21.4 53.9 - 8.8 14.7 22.1 11.1 -14.0 18.2

TOTAL IMPORTS 208.9 390.0 530.0 540.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 17.3 56.3 35.9 2.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Consumer Goods Food 22.1 40.0 55.1 56.2 10.6 10.3 10.4 10.4 22.7 44.4 37.8 2.0 13.7 7.7 9.9 9.6 Other Consumer Goods 1 23.7 33.0 62.0 60.7 11.4 8,5 11.7 11.2 20.4 15.0 87.9 -2.1 13.1 2.1 23.1 -11.0 Raw Materials and Intermediate Goods-/ 84.7 136.0 217.3 207.7 40.5 34.9 41.0 38.4 7.5 45.8 59.8 -4.4 17.1 26.9 58.5 -80.2 Capital Goods 78.3 181,0 195.6 216.0 37.5 46.3 36.9 40.0 26.3 81.4 8.1 10.4 56.1 63.3 8.4 181.7

1/ Including fuels and lubricants Sources: St~tistical Appendix, Tables 3.2 and 3.3 - 11 -

and intermediate goods increased to 41% of total imports stimulated by increased industrial activity. Total imports of goods and non-factor services increased by 32% and the resource balance shifted from a surplus of US$69 million to a gap of US$172 million, a swing of US$241 million. The deterioration in the current account was of a similar magnitude, i.e., from a US$50 million surplus in 1974 to a deficit of US$191.0 million in 1975. Even with continued heavy public sector borrowing the country experienced a US$55 million reserve loss.

18. Bolivia's balance of payments position improved considerably in 1976. With steadily improving market conditions for tin and other minerals, as the industrialized countries began to emerge from recession, exports registered a 17% increase. At the same time, measures taken at the end of 1975 to restrict import growth proved successful, as imports increased less than 2% in 1976. 1/ As a result, the trade account swung from a deficit of US$66 million in 1975 to a small surplus. The improvement in the trade account was partly offset by a continuing increase in interest payments, reflecting the country's growing external debt and gradually hardening terms of external borrowing. Nevertheless, there was a significant reduction in the current account deficit, from US$191 million in 1975 to US$140 million in 1976. Bolivia continued to be able to attract substantial amounts of financing from foreign commercial banks and, largely because of this, was able to finance 'the current account deficit while increasing foreign exchange reserves by US$53 million.

Capital Flows and External Public Debt

19. Due to its very limited savings capacity, Bolivia's external capital requirements have traditionally been large and foreign savings have played an important part in investment financing. Capital inflows were almost entirely mobilized by the public sector over the period 1968-76. During this period commitments of medium to long-term loans to the public sector (including publicly guaranteed debt) amounted to US$1.49 billion. 2/ About 52% of this was committed during the last two years when Bolivia's position as a minor petroleum exporter substantially improved the international financial community's assessment of its creditworthiness. Disbursements amounted to US$1.0

1/ The combination of import constraints and prohibitions included: (i) an across-the-board 3% increase in import tariffs; (ii) a 25% import deposit requirement for a period of 120 days before customs clearance for private importers; (iii) a temporary prohibition of vehicle imports by both public and private importers; (iv) a two-year prohibition of the importation of 32 groups of products, mostly consumer goods; and (v) suspen- sion of foreign currency credits to finance foreign travel.

2/ The figures on direct investment and loan disbursements to the public sector exclude an item of US$79.3 million for the nationalization of Gulf Oil properties. Compensation payments to the company are included in the amortization of external debt. - 12 -

billion by end-1976, leaving an undisbursed balance of US$494 million. Bilateral and international lenders provided 58% of total commitments, mainly on concessionary terms; about 7% of the commitments are repayable in local currency. The World Bank Group committed US$166.8 million during 1968-76 or 11.2% of the total.

20. Private capital movements have on balance shown a net outflow. Direct investment and other long-term private capital have been relatively unimportant, although there has been some increase lately due to revitalized private investment, especially exploration activities by foreign petroleum companies. These were more than offset by substantial outflows of short-term private capital which occurred throughout the period (a large part of which is concealed in errors and omissions).

21. Bolivia's debt service ratio has varied considerably from year to year. The service on Bolivia's external debt peaked in 1972 at nearly 21% of exports of goods and non-factor services (net of investment income abroad). The debt service ratio fell to 12.8% in 1974 reflecting the surge of exports. However, with the slow expansion of exports and rising external debt, it rose to 18.8% in 1976. Until the mid-1960s, a substantial share of external capital could be mobilized through grants. However, this was replaced first by soft term loans and increasingly in recent years by financial and suppliers' credits. As a result of the increased borrowing from the latter sources, which accounted for about 46% of total commitments during 1975-76, the average conditions of Bolivia's newly contracted debt have hardened. Thus, between 1971 and 1976, the average maturity has decreased from 24 to 14 years, while the interest rate has risen from 4.5% to 7.0% and the grant element of new loans fell from 35.7% to 17.4%.

Table 6: TERMS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT CONTRACTED DURING 1971-76 (US$ million)

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 /I

Total Amount 89.3 156.1 68.2 172.4 382.0 373.8 Average Interest (%) 4.37 4.48 4.02 5.33 5.88 7.03 Average Maturity (Yr) 24.3 19.9 23.0 25.8 17.9 13.8 Average Grace (Yr) 5.0 4.0 5.1 6.7 3.9 3.8 Grant Element (%) 35.7 34.4 40.4 40.7 23.5 17.4

/I Provisional.

Source: IBRD, External Debt Division. - 13 -

CHAPTER II

SECTOR ISSUES AND PROSPECTS

Agriculture

22. Almost 70% of Bolivia's 5.6 million people live in rural areas and the agricultural sector provides employment for over one-half of the country's labor force, generates one-fourth of GDP and contributes 12% of exports. Struc- tural constraints and the orientation of agricultural policy have resulted in lopsided sectoral growth in recent years. While commercial agriculture in the tropical eastern lowlands has been growing very fast, the small farm subsistence subsector concentrated in the Altiplano region has stagnated. The principal problem affecting the agricultural sector is the imbalance between demographic and natural resources in Bolivia's main agricultural regions. Approximately 80% of the rural population is concentrated in the cold and infertile Altiplano and in the Andean valleys, which together constitute 30% of the country's land area, while the Yungas (lower tropical valleys) and Oriente (eastern tropical lowlands) regions with 70% of the land have only 20% of the population. The unevenness of population distribution and density, long distances between agricultural regions (especially those with most growth potential) and markets, and extremely rugged terrain result in comparatively high per capita costs for providing adequate transportation, communication, and social services. These problems are compounded by frequent floods. The subsistence farmers and their families that live on the Altiplano have little contact with the monetary sector of the economy and many are Quechua and Aymara Indians who neither speak nor understand Spanislh. As a consequence, language is a major barrier to the development of modern agriculture. The living standards of these people are very low, and there is widespread unemployment and underemployment. Production is carried out with traditional techniques that rely heavily on family labor.

23. The Agrarian Reform Law of 1953 was designed to improve the living conditions of the rural population by changing the land tenure system. How- ever, land redistribution was to a large extent limited to the northwestern highlands of the country where its favorable social impact was accompanied by the abolition of unpaid labor and the creation of farmer unions (sindicatos campesinos). Limitations placed on the size of land holdings have, however, resulted in a large number of very small farms concentrated in the Altiplano and higher valleys, where formerly large-scale farming prevailed, and growth of productivity and income has been slow.

24. The Bolivian authorities have had little success in promoting large scale migration to the eastern lowlands, another fundamental objective of the Agrarian Reform Law. That rural migration which has occurred (from the Valley and Altiplano regions to the Yungas around La Paz and Cochabamba, and to the lowlands of the Alto Beni, Chapare and Santa Cruz zones) has not significantly altered rural population densities across regions. Reasons for the failure of - 14 -

population to redistribute itself oni a significant scale include the low incomes yielded by agriculture in the newly settled areas during the first years, lack of appropriate technology for small farm production in the lowlands, high transportation costs and marketing difficulties, and shortages of credit, extension services and technical assistance. Sociological (e.g., attachment to ancestral land and the survival of strong cultural ties among the Altiplano Indians) as well as climatic factors have also hindered migration from the highlands to the eastern lowlands.

25. The stagnation of the subsistence farming sector is reflected both in the stable structure of crop produciton 1/ and the decreasing rate of growth of production. The extremely small scale of many highland farms and low soil fertility make it difficult to increase production and living standards for many Altiplano farmers. There is little scope for expanding land under cultivation, or for cooperative use of capital to upgrade the technology of land use, and attempts to improve marketing facilities have so far either failed or been insufficiently promoted. Nevertheless, the small farm sector plays an important role in feeding Bolivia's population. Rough estimates suggest that campesinos feed themselves plus one third of the urban population, which together accounts for three-fourths of Bolivia's food consumption. They supply some cereals (mainly corn and quinoa) and almost all of the fruits and vegetables consumed in the urban areas. Commercial agriculture and imports account for the remaining quarter of the food supply. Consumer prices of basic foodstuffs produced primarily by the small farm sector are controlled and this has tended to reduce production incentives for the traditional producers.

26. The lagging overall performance of the small farmr sector of the Altiplano and the Valleys contrasts with the rapid growth of modern, export- oriented agriculture in the Santa Cruz region of the Oriente. Private agriculture in this region has been highly responsive to both government policy and market incentives. The development of the necessary infrastructure (particularly the all-weather road from Cochabamba to Santa Cruz), the provision of production loans and long-term improvement credits through the Agricultural Bank of Bolivia, extension services, land clearing and government investment in sugar refineries (to some extent in response to persistent and serious balance-of-payments pressures during the 1950s and 1960s whlen export earnings dropped sharply) have helped to stimulate import substitution in beef, sugar, rice and cotton. Bolivia has attained self-sufficiency in all of these products and is now generating export surpluses. Storage and marketing coordination has been provided by active and influential producers' associations such as the Cotton Growers Association (ADEPA); the Beni Cattlemen's Associa- tion (FEGABE); and the National Rice Growers Federation (FENCA). These Associations have influenced governmental decisions regarding credit allocations and the levels of price supports and also have served as cooperatives

1/ Including potatoes, the most important crop, and other tubers, barley, high protein quinoa, mutton, dent corn, vegetables, and fruits. - 15 - both in the marketing of products and importation of factors of production. At the same time, the Government has facilitated export marketing through autonomous public agencies concerned with specific products such as the National Rice Company (ENA) which buys and wholesales all rice, and the Bolivian Coffee Committee (COBOLCA).

27. The country's variety of climatic and geographical conditions with vast unsettled land and abundant water resources offers good possibilities for development of a highly diversified output pattern through increased productivity of modern and traditional crops and the shift to higher-yielding varieties and import-substitute food staples. The best opportunities appear to be livestock and dairy products, including swine and poultry, and production of coffee, sugar, oilseed crops, and lumber and wood processing for which international demand prospects are good. Bolivia could achieve self- sufficiency in production of virtually all food requirements with the excep- tion of wheat (because of climatic conditions). A general upgrading of production methods, management and technology will be needed to improve efficiency in production of food both for domestic consumption and exports. Given proper incentives, commercial agriculture should be expected to implement investment necessary for increasing productivity with its own resources. Commercial producers are well organized and have access to credit. In contrast, traditional agriculture will need a whole spectrum of supporting services including research and extension, marketing systems for modern inputs, credit resources and delivery facilities. At the same time, improvements in health, education, and other basic needs of the campesino sector will be necessary to achieve increased production. In order to implement policies of intensified support to traditional agriculture, institutional reforms of the public entities serving this area may be necessary, as well as an upgrading of the quality of professional services among agricultural and extension services. These changes should include the creation of an effective organization for formulating and implementing policies of integrated rural development as well as new credit mechanisms. The reorganization should emphasize expansion, decentralization in implementation and greater coordination of agricultural services. This should be supplemented on the farm level by establishment of cooperatives to develop delivery systems for transfer of new technology and to facilitate purchasing of inputs, marketing products, and the provision of agricultural credit. The Government should undertake a careful assessment of the various policies (e.g., food pricing, taxation, agricultural credit, land tenure, availability of inputs, and marketing facilities) affecting agriculture and, where necessary, take action to improve incentives for agricultural production.

Mining 1/

28. Mining, historically considered the backbone of Bolivia's economy, now accounts for only about 11-12% of GDP and provides employment for just 3%

1/ A Bank mission recently carried out a comprehensive study of Bolivia s mining sector: Present Position and Prospects of the Mining Sector of Bolivia. This section summarizes the main issues included in this Report. - 16 -

of the total labor force. In spite of the sector's virtual rstagnation over most of the last two decades, mining remains a major source o6f foreign exchange and fiscal resources. Mining has accounted for nearly 75% of merchandise exports and 25% of the Central Government current revenues during the last ten years. While the sector's activities are carried out by both public and private enterprises, mineral production is dominated by the government- controlled Bolivian Mining Corporation (COMIBOL). It owns and manages 14 large mines and accounts for over 50% of mineral exports and about 33% of employment. Medium mining, defined as firms which have a share capital of at least US$100,000 and which meet certain monthly minimum production levels, consists of 29 private firms of which two are foreign-controlled and four or five are private-joint ventures. Medium mining enterprises account for 22% of the sector's exports and 28% of mining taxes. The number of firms in the rest of the private sector, small mines and cooperatives, varies between 2,000 and 4,500. A significant proportion of these concerns is frequently brought into or taken out of operation depending on international mineral prices and world market conditions. Although they produce only about 12% of output, small mines and cooperatives are an important source of employment. Small mines employ between 15,000 and 25,000 workers, depending on the number in operation, and cooperatives employ another 16,000.

29. Since its creation in 1952 COMIBOL has experienced problems of over- centralization, decapitalization, inefficient use of labor and excessive welfare expenditures. The organization's structure seems to be centralized to an extent inconsistent with running such a large, diversified firm in an efficient manner. Most of COMIBOL's mines are decapitalized and operate with very low levels of ore reserves. Operational costs are rising as mines become progressively deeper and the ore grades mined deteriorate. COMIBOL's equipment was already depreciated and technically obsolete at the time of nationalization in 1952 and no significant new investment has been carried out until very recently. Investment has been channeled mainly into ore processing (including volatization) which has succeeded in increasing recovery ratios despite falling mineral content of ores. Employment in COMIBOL is well in excess of requirements due to the commitment of the Government to social reform and the concentration of political power in the miner's unions. More- over, there is a serious lack of middle management at the mine and plant levels. The Government recognizes that improvements in COMIBOL are essential to the future of the sector and has recently appointed a new management team.

30. Medium mines, as a whole, are the most efficient segment of the sector. They are relatively modern and capital-intensive and employ propor- tionately less labor than COMIBOL or the small-mining subsector but provide their workers with better working and living conditions. Among the main problems of these firms are the shortage of skilled workers and lack of sophis- tication in dealing with international mineral markets. In the past, fear of nationalization and the extreme difficulty imposed by labor legislation of stopping or reducing operations if market conditions deteriorate have inhibited growth of firms in tl2 is segment of the mining sector. - 17 -

31. Small individual and cooperative mines employ primitive technology and often neglect minimum health and safety standards. They face difficult marketing problems for their products, particularly for low grade minerals of tin, copper and antimony, and have limited access to credit. The only lending institution for small mining is the Banco Minero de Bolivia (BAMIN). This institution has rendered low quality high-cost services to small mines but is currently undergoing a long-needed, thorough-going functional reform.

32. Recent international developments have contributed to the deterioration of Bolivia's mining activities. After having reached a peak in 1974, the country's mineral prices fell by about. 20% in 1975 and total output was nearly 5% below that in the previous year. The financial situation of mining enterprises was adversely affected by rising costs of imported inputs (40-50% in 1974 and 10-15% in 1975) 1/ as well as by the decline in exports. Operating costs for certain minerals actually exceeded international prices by a significant margin. The production of minerals for which this problem is particularly serious has been curtailed or stopped and more inefficient small mines have had to halt operations.

33. Bolivia's existing mines are located at high altitudes. Most of them are narrow-vein underground deposits generally endowed with complex ores. These characteristics, together with the country's limited physical infrastructure, make mining a relatively capital-intensive and costly activity. Inade- quate exploration and mining development have been significant factors in hampering output growth over the past 25 years. However, less than 10% of the country has been systematically explored. Government policies have adversely affected exploration activities. Sizeable proportions of potentially mineralized areas have been declared fiscal reserves where private exploration is not allowed, while COMIIBOL has carried out only minimal exploration in these areas. As a result, no significant new discoveries of minerals have been made during the last two decades. Even exploration of reserves on existing mines has been neglected with unfavorable repercussions on production.

34. Taxation has been a significant obstacle to expansion of mining. Mining enterprises are essentially taxed on their gross exports, with little consideration being given to their actual cost situation. 2/ This form of

1/ Since mining has few linkages with other sectors of the economy, import requirements for both investment and current operations are relatively high. About 85% of nonlabor inputs are imported.

2/ Mining taxes mainly comprise royalties (regalias) and export taxes. The former are levied on the difference between gross value of production (i.e., exports) and presumptive operating costs which are brought up-to-date very infrequently. The export tax was originally enacted as a temporary levy to capture some of the "windfall" gains resulting from the sizeable devaluation of 1972 (nearly 70% in terms of the peso-dollar rate). At its expiration date in October of 1973 this tax provision was converted to a levy on gross values and the nominal general rate was reduced to 7.5% or less on most mineral exports. - 18 - taxation tends to dampen investment in exploration and mine development since development costs and investment expenditures are not taken into consideration in computing tax liabilities. A highly uneconomical pattern of exploitation and beneficiation is thereby being encouraged which results in utilizing only the richest ores ("high-grading of ores") and exporting them as very low-grade concentrates, as royalties normally increase with the metal content of the concentrate ("low-grading of concentrates"). This very inflexible form of taxation precludes adequate government participation in profits when export receipts are high, while the tax is overly burdensome in situations of low prices and export receipts.

35. Under the technical assistance programs financed by the Bank Group, the Institute for International Development of Harvard University has prepared an alternative to the present mining tax system, to be implemented in two steps: (i) a tax on presumed income, taking regular and systematic account of actual cost developments, combined with a low-rate levy ("production royalty") to stabilize fiscal revenue; (ii) once this system is well established, a change-over to a net profits tax, at least for firms in a position to eventually meet the accounting requirements of corporate taxation. Appli- cation of a net profits tax thus might be limited to COMIBOL and 25-30 private firms which account for about 80% of mining output. Producers unable to pre- pare proper accounts would continue to be taxed on a presumed income basis. The advisory group feels that mining taxation based on net profits could be fully operative by around 1980. Recommendations of the report include a detailing of amortizable expenses (a partial credit on exploration and development is recommended instead of a depletion allowance); elimination of preferential tax treatment of certain minerals and low-grade concentrates; a structure of effective tax rates designed to increase with incomes and not the opposite, as under the present system; incorporation of a surtax in order to increase the government's revenue share when prices are buoyant; and, rationalization of mineral rights and other minor taxes. The Government has yet to decide on these reform proposals. Considerations range from immediate introduction of a net profits tax to continued application of the existing system to avoid the risk of revenue loss. Although the immediate introduction of a net profits tax does not appear to be feasible, it is clearly advisable, in the interest of long-term growth of mining output and of fiscal revenue from mining to apply this system as soon as conditions permit. The advisory group estimates that a net profit tax on mining, once firmly established, would generate as much as 14% more revenue than the present system.

36. Output growth has also been hindered by the lack of adequate credit for exploration, investment and working capital. Small mines and, to a lesser extent, the medium-sized private mines are particularly affected. The performance of the State ltining Bank (BAMIN), established to provide financing, technical assistance, equipment and current inputs for private firms (especially small mines), as well as marketing their output, has been unsatisfactory. This reflects undue political interference, inadequate lending policies, ineffective recovery procedures and inefficient administration. However, the privately owned Industrial Bank (BISA) has financed an increasing number of - 19 - mining ventures (mainly medium-size companies) since 1974 when US$5 million out of US$6.2 million IDA credit was made available for onlending to medium- size mines. BISA's requirements relating to project implementation, especially technical and financial management, are generally considered onerous by mining companies.

37. Mining output will probably return to pre-1975 levels as world prices and markets improve from their depressed levels. Nevertheless, past neglect of exploration and mine development is bound to limit expansion of productive capacity in the next few years until new production facilities become operational. Over the medium term, there is substantial potential for expansion of output. Investment and technical assistance should be concentrated in approximately a dozen medium and small mines plus some more promising COMIBOL mines. Intensifying reserve development, improving mechanization and upgrading mine operations will be necessary. Over the longer-term, development of Bolivia's mining potential will depend heavily on the scope and quality of geological work. Otherwise capacity increases will be offset by declining output of those mines whose deposits become progressively exhausted.

38. COMIBOL's severe structural problems call for years of sustained investment and organizational rationalization to raise productivity substantially. Medium mining can be expected to develop its potential more fully and significantly increase its share in mineral output on the strength of ongoing and planned investment. The share of mineral output reEined domestically can be expected to increase substantially in the wake of expansion and diversification of refining capacities.

39. Government objectives for the period 1977-80 include increasing production through intensified exploration, the opening of new mines and the expansion of existing ones; diversifying production, particularly into ferrous and non-metallic minerals with stronger growth potential than tin; increasing efficiency in all aspects of mining and metallurgical operations; expanding refining, and strengthening Bolivia's position in internLational markets. A new mining law designed along the same lines as the hydrocarbons law of 1972, now under consideration, seeks participation of foreign investors in exploration and exploitation of mineral deposits even in potentially mineralized areas thus far considered as "fiscal reserves." By 1980 total mineral output (in 1975 prices) is targeted to be 35% above its 1975 level, implying an increase of 6% per year. Substantially faster growth is foreseen for zinc, tungsten and copper, while there would be slower than average growth for tin, silver and bismuth, virtual stagnation of antimony, and a slight decline for lead.

40. COMIBOL plans to invest US$110 million during 1977-80, the bulk of it in ore processing, with three volatization plants accounting for two-thirds of total investment outlays. Priority is being given to increasing productivity and beneficiation in order to attain higher recovery rates in concentration and, consequently, lower cut-offs in mining operations. This is expected to allow exploitation of very low grade ores which thus far has not - 20 - been economically feasible. Investment planned by ENAF for the same period approaches US$250 million including a trebling of tin refining, a zinc refinery, a lead-silver smelter and a copper refinery. There are also indications that medium mines could invest as much as US$65 million in expanding output over the same period. About 40% of this would be directly attributable to projects supported by two Bank Group operations which are likely to result in increased output of tin, zinc, tungsten and antimony and possibly increase in export earnings.

41. Indications are that viable mining operations almost without excep- tion offer higher returns than smelting/refining. Moreover, in some cases present mining output levels are too low or not enough mineral reserves have been proven to secure adequate supplies during the lifetime of individual projects. The Government, therefore, is making a thorough analysis of individual smelting and refining projects before any firm investment decisions are taken.

Industry

42. Bolivia's industry is at an early stage of development. The sector's share of GDP, about 10%, has remained practically unchanged since 1968. In 1975, approximately 230,000 people, 8.2% of the labor force, worked in industrial activities. The industrial sector is largely composed of artisan shops and small firms with less than 10 employees which produce food, textiles, clothing, footwear and other simple consumer goods. Most of these firms are characterized by low productivity and many, especially the larger ones, are highly dependent on imported inputs. Both labor legislation and shortages of qualified managerial and technical manpower have hampered productivity growth. Workers have obtained guarantees regarding job stability in lieu of unemployment insurance. Consequently, it is difficult to dismiss them once hired. At the same time, the ineffectiveness of social institutions forces workers to retain their jobs even after they have reached the legal retirement age of 55 years. Although fringe benefits account for a large proportion of their basic wages, industrial income levels remain among the lowest in the Andean region.

43. The domestic market for manufactured goods is thin. Rural dwellers, who form the majority of the population, have little real purchasing power for industrial products. The thinness of the domestic market is further constricted by the influx of a large volume of contraband commodities. An additional constraint to industrial expansion is imposed by the long and difficult access to potential export markets. Transportation problems make the country's industry relatively working capital-intensive since industrial concerns need to maintain exceptionally large stocks of raw materials and intermediate products in order to prevent unexpected interruptions in their production schedules.

44. Industrial investment has begun to expand more rapidly recently, stimulated by the liberal incentive law of 1971 and a favorable investment climate. Relatively large investments by the Government through the Bolivian - 21 -

Development Corporation (CBF) have gone to sugar refining, milk processing, bus-body construction, ceramics, cement, and metal-smelting plants. Private industrial allocations approved by the National Institute of Investment (INI) over the period 1972-75 have followed a similar pattern, with agro-industries, foodstuffs and metal-processing accounting for 69% of total investment and 55% of total jobs created. The main incentives under the 1971 investment law include duty exemptions for capital and intermediate goods, tariff rebates for intermediate goods used for export production, sales and income tax exemptions and depreciation allowances. It also permits repatriation of paid-in capital, remittance of profits or dividends of foreign investment, and for payments on external credits which have been contracted with prior knowledge of the Central Bank. Although this law provides attractive investment: incentives, foreign investors are somewhat constrained by some provisions contained in Law No. 09788 which approved Decision 24 of the Commission of the Cartagena Agreement of the Andean Pact. 1/ According to these provisions, foreign firms must sign a contract with the Bolivian Government committing themselves to be trans- formed into mixed or national companies within a 20-year period. They must assure progressive participation of national investors in the technical, financial and administrative aspects of a new enterprise after the third year of production. A 20% ceiling is placed on annual net profits (based on direct foreign investment) to be remitted abroad. Contracts for the importation of technology, patents and trade marks are subject to Government approval and may not contain clauses calling for price fixing, volume restrictions or royalty payments for non-utilized patents or trade marks.

45. The future of Bolivia's industrial sector will, to a large extent, depend on the development of export-oriented activities. Import substitution offers limited possibilities for Bolivia industry because of the narrowly circumscribed domestic market. 2/ A promising approach to Bolivian industrialization could be to develop a diversified manufacturing sector based on the transformation of the country's natural resources (agricultural, mining and oil-related activities).

46. The Andean Pact assigns certain industries planned to serve the Group as a whole exclusively to Bolivia, in particular in the fields of metal processing and petrochemicals have been assigned but others are expected in the near future. These industries, however, tend to be capital-intensive with limited potential for generating employment. Under the Cartagena

1/ The Andean Group includes Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela. All the countries but Venezuela signed an agreement in May 1969 called the Andean Sub-regional Economic Integration Agreement, commonly known as the Cartagena Agreement, to form an association leading to an Andean Common Market. Venezuela participated in the original negotiations but did not join until February 1973.

2/ Domestic production of nitrogen fertilizer and pesticides are among the likely alternatives for import-substitution. - 22 -

Agreement Bolivia has been given special treatment allowing it a longer period before liberalizing its imports from within the region, preferential access to resources of the Andean Development Corporation (CAF), and access to a special fund for the development of its physical infrastructure. The Andean Common Market calls for common external tariff for imports from non- members to be implemented by Bolivia by 1985. Bolivia's present tariffs are low compared to the relatively high Common External Tariff included in the Cartagena Agreement, but have a wide degree of dispersion. Adoption of this tariff could have an adverse impact on the pattern of development of the country's industrial sector.

Hydrocarbons

47. The increase in world energy prices which began in 1973 has led to an intensification of the search for new petroleum and natural gas reserves in Bolivia. The country has long been considered to have the geological potential to be a significant producer of hydrocarbons and the increase in price has overcome the cost factors which had been limiting exploration activities. The prospects for discovery of additional hydrocarbon reserves over the medium term are favorable and this has created a climate of great expectation in the country. The Government is anticipating continued high rates of economic growth over the next few years, founded upon the assumption that substantial increases in hydrocarbon output will be achieved during the late 1970s. Current development programs for the hydrocarbons sector assign the highest priority to exploration, field development and expansion of existing transportation, storing, and processing facilities. Major exploration and field development efforts are being undertaken by foreign companies working under operation and/or service contracts with YPFB. Some of these companies are finishing or are well underway with wide-grid exploration and have iden- tified promising structures. Most have commenced drilling exploratory wells in various parts of the country (e.g., the Chaco, the mountainous region south- west of Camiri, the Altiplano, and the Subandean foothills). YPFB is also intensifying its drilling activities. In total about 20 exploratory wells, representing an investment of at least US$50 million, were drilled in 1976.

48. Investment required for growth of hydrocarbon production will be substantial and necessitate a minimum of three years for implementation. As an example of the cost involved, developing an oil field of 40 million barrels recoverable reserves, which is equivalent to about 10,000 barrels of daily production, might require close to US$50 million, not including exploration expenditures. Increasing crude output from the present 40,000 to 85-100,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 1980 would probably involve investments ranging between US$225 and US$325 million. Increasing production of natural gas from the present 400 to 650 million cubic feet per day (cfd) by 1980 would require investment of about US$100 million for exploration and development. In addition, investment needed for expanding export pipeline capacities for both oil and gas could approximate US$500 million over the next 5 to 6 years. While the larger share of field development will be borne by private companies, YPFB would have to implement and finance the large-scale investment in trunk pipelines unless some form of participation by private companies is worked out. - 23 -

49. The hydrocarbons' investment plan for the period 1976-80 calls for nearly US$550 million (1975 prices) in investment. About one-half of the total would be allocated to exploration and field development. The major projects include: the installation of additional pumping stations on the Santa Cruz-Yacuiba pipeline so as to double gas shipments to Argentina by 1979; production pipelines to major centers of domestic consumption; and, modernization and expansion of refining capacity, eventually to 75,000 bpd from the present 21,000 bpd, which would satisfy demand for the next 15 years. In addition, gas pipelines to Brazil (with a maximum capacity of 600 million cfd) and to the Altiplano (capacity 300 million cfd) are also being considered as investment alternatives to be included in the five-year development plan.

50. The Government assigns the highest priority to exploration and field development allocations which are necessary for any permanent increase in production and exports. At the same time, low cost solutions designed to utilize the existing pipeline network at its maximum capacity will be applied.

51. As for the Brazil gas pipeline project, a contract between the two countries signed in late 1973 provided for Bolivian gas exports to Brazil of 240 million cubic feet per day over a period of 20 years at an unspecified price. Nearly 400 miles of pipeline would have to be built in Bolivia to get the gas to the Brazilian border. The investment cost is presently estimated at.US$220 million (1975 prices). Brazil has offered financial assistance for building the pipeline. Recent discoveries of five new gas deposits by YPFB and Occidental Petroleum have enchanced the prospects for a final agreement regarding implementation of the pipeline project. However, the Bolivian Government wishes to link its participation in the project to development of a gas-fueled sponge iron plant in the country based on the iron deposit of El Mutun. It would like Brazil to assist with financing this project, and to provide a market for its output. Thus far, the two countries have not yet reached an agreement regarding this matter. - 24 -

CHAPTER III

The Near Term Development Prospects

52. Economic policy in Bolivia is being directed at sustaining rapid economic growth while restoring the relative balance that characterized the fiscal accounts and external transactions during 1972-74. The Government is attempting to hold down the growth of domestic and import expenditures for consumption, while expanding investment, strengthening the domestic tax revenue base, rationalizing policies affecting foreign trade and improving public sector institutions and services.

53. The Government intends to arrest the deterioration of fiscal performance by increasing revenues through full implementation of the new mineral and personal income tax schemes. On the expenditure side, budgetary financing of the working capital of state corporations will be limited and subsidies will gradually be eliminated. The goal of the Government is to reduce the budget deficit to minimize recourse to central bank financing.

54. The policy of wage restraint which was followed in 1975 was dis- rupted in March, 1976, when a 33% salary adjustment was granted to teachers. An adjustment of 24% was approved for COMIBOL miners later in the year. This wage settlement also included an extraordinary plan for social development, including housing construction, provision of health, educational and recre- ational facilities, as well as improvements in working conditions and institution of a retraining program. The Government intends to reinstitute its policy of wage restraint in 1977, linking increases to changes in productivity and, in addition, spreading increases over the year to limit their inflationary impact.

55. Balance-of-payments performance in 1976 was better than had been anticipated early in that year, largely because of more favorable evolution of export prices and extraordinary measures by the Government to restrict consumer goods imports. Despite the likelihood of an export increase in the range of 12-15%, prospects are that the balance of payments current account deficit in 1977 will be greater than that in 1976, probably between US$170 and US$200 million compared with US$140 million in 1976. This is largely due to increased import requirements associated with investment outlays in the petroleum and metallurgical sectors. However, the external borrowing requirements associated with financing this deficit should not be incompatible with Bolivia's longer-term debt servicing capacity.

56. The rate of growth of GDP is likely to be in the 5-6% range in 1977, propelled by heavy public investment, especially large scale investment in minerals and intensified hydrocarbons exploration and field development. About 40 wells representing an investment of at least US$60 million, will be drilled in 1977. This effort will be concentrated in newly discovered fields--Caranda (17 wells), Montecristo (12 wells), Cambeiti (9 wells) and Espejos (4 wells)-- so as to establish the size of their reserves and to have a better assessment of YPFB's medium term prospects for crude oil production and exports. - 25 -

57. Important steps toward implementation of a national program for promotion of non-traditional exports can be expected in 1977. The plan includes the enactment of a general law of export promotion and the creation of the National Institute for the Promotion of Exports which will design and implement Bolivia's commercial policy. The Institute will encourage small entrepreneurs to attempt non-traditional export operations and will facilitate the provision of export credits and assistance in the field of export insurance. In addition, the Government: intends to stimulate mineral production and exports by reducing or eliminating royalties and export taxes with the implementation of the new minerals tax system.

58. A general revision and rationalization of existing instruments of import control is now under consideration. 1/ The Government is studying a shift towards a somewhat more protection-oriented and uniform nominal tariff structure (i.e., raising existing rates on raw materials and intermediate goods and lowering the high rates on some finished products) so as to preclude the wide dispersion of effective rates of protection. The elimination of tariff exemptions for public sector enterprises imports as well as the exclusion of tariff exemption as an investment incentive have been suggested. Finally, the authorities are studying the coordination of import taxes with sales (value-added) and selective consumption taxes for "non-essential" goods.

Medium-Term Prospects

59. Sectoral Strategy. The Government has released the first volume of a Five-Year Economic and Social Development Plan which will be implemented through annual Operational Programs. The Plan's major target is the expansion of the main export sectors--hydrocarbons and minerals, and agriculture and agro-industries--in order to break the foreign exchange-const-raint to rapid development. The Plan recognizes that additional infrastructure (transport, communications, power and water supply) is basic to the country's development. High priority also will be given to regional development and physical integration of the country. 2/ Increases in mine development and

1/ The Bolivian tariff generally has the following components: (i) a custom duty which can be ad valorem or specific or a combination of both; (ii) an additional tax; (iii) a tax for service rendered which is intended to pay for the provision of government facilities for international trade; and (iv) a one percent earmarked tax for the development of the northwestern regions of Bolivia.

2/ Existing economic links between the La Paz-Cochabamba-Santa Cruz and Oruro-Potosi-Chuquisaca-Tarija will be consolidated and the ties between these regions and the Beni and Pando departments will be strengthened. Agro-industrial development centers will be organized around the existing Villamontes and Abapo-Izozog projects. Additional development poles will be structured in the southeastern region of E:L Mutun (iron), northeastern zone of Pando-Beni-La Paz (livestock, timber, agriculture) and southwestern region of Potosi (non-metallic mineral). - 26 - hydrocarbon exploration expenditures, especially in drilling, which are crucial in the light of the low levels and lack of steady effort in the past, are being emphasized. Large scale investment in field development is also recognized as necessary for any permanent increase in production and exports. Priority is also given to a broad strategy geared towards improvement in the quality of life of the population. The approach is an integrated one linking community development with the provision of essential infrastructure and technical assistance to increase productivity and production of basic foods with high nutritional value by small farmers.

60. The goals of the Government's agricultural strategy are to reduce the country's dependence on imported foodstuffs and to alleviate acute poverty and underemployment in the traditional agricultural sector. For the latter, agricultural investment will be directed towards integrated rural development projects to provide basic social services, infrastructure, and credit and extension services. Through projects like the Ingavi program, financed with IBRD assistance, agricultural production would be increased and the population at present engaged in traditional subsistence agriculture would be incorporated in the money economy. The land reform process which began in 1952, will be reoriented and land titling will be accelerated for land reform beneficiaries. The Government also intends to colonize about one milion hectares through the resettlement of some 21,000 families. The development of commercial agriculture will be facilitated by the exploitation of the country's wide variety of climatic conditions. Emphasis will be placed on water development both for agricultural and industrial use to facilitate the irrigation of an area equivalent to 22,000 hectares. An inventory of forest resources will be undertaken over an area of 1.8 million hectares and 40 additional wood species will be incorporated into the domestic and foreign timber market. A major health improvement program to free 8 million heads of cattle from hoof-and-mouth, rabies, brucellosis and other diseases will be launched. The Plan calls for the rationalization of commercial networks to faciliate the development of markets for both factors of production and product output and the creation of professional training and research centers to improve the technical qualifications of agricultural workers and the technology of land use. The rationalization of public services for agriculture and the creation of information centers will improve planning implementation. Finally tax, credit and price incentives will be employed to encourage private investment in the agricultural sector.

61. The Government plans an outward-oriented industrial expansion emphasizing increases in the value-added of current exports and encouraging efficient industrial activities which undertake to incorporate an increasing proportion of local inputs. Priority is being given to additional food processing industries such as edible oils, sugar, fruit, vegetables and woods and to the creation of industries assigned exclusively to Bolivia by virtue of the Andean Pact. Feasibility studies are underway to establish the viability of copper, silver, bismuth and lead smelters, and a zinc refinery which will also produce sulphuric acid. Two tin-volatilization plants will - 2 7 - be built which will greatly improve secondary recovery levels. An industrial development pole in the area of El Mutun iron ore deposit, near the Brazilian border, based on the construction of a large fertilizer plant and the development of a steel industry, is under consideration.

62. The lack of adequate transport facilities is one of the main obstacles to Bolivia's development. It prevents the use of potentially bountiful areas, the integration of the economy, the creation of national markets for both factors of production and product output, and reduces the foreign exchange earning capacity of the country by diminishing the volume and variety of exportable products. Since the need for efficient, rapid and relatively low cost transport is vital not only for products in which Bolivia has good export potential but also for the physical integration of its terri- tory the plan includes ambitious transportation targets such as: (i) extension and improvement of the road and railways networks; (ii) modernization of air transport through improvements of infrastructure and construction of additional airports, particularly in the northern and northeastern regions; (iii) extension of river and lake fleet and improvement of port facilities and river navigation; and, (iv) achievement of efficient operation levels for each transport mode while keeping low costs and satisfactory services.

63. The physical targets for the transport sector include additional 650 kilometers to the existing railway system of about 3,500 kilometers. (442 kilometers of line will be built to join the Western and Eastern networks and 208 kilometers for the Santa Cruz-Trinidad railroad. 1/) At the same time, the plan calls for adding 2,970 kilometers of highways to the present road system which consists of about 38,000 kilometers of various quality. 2/ (470 kilometers will be paved and 2,500 kilometers will be gravel.) In addition, 830 kilometers of existing roads will be improved. Existing airports at La Paz, Cochabamba, Santa Cruz, Trinidad and Santa Ana de Tacuma would be expanded and modernized. New airports would be built at Tarija, Cobija and Santa Cruz. These programs include the provision of auxiliary equipment for air navigation and security and telecommunications equipment.

64. Electricity supply largely depends upon hydroelectric plants which generated about 76% of the 1,057 GWh consumed in 1975. The remainder comes from thermal plants. The main suppliers of electricity are Empresa Nacional de Electricidad, S.A. (ENDE), Bolivian Power Company Limited (BPC) and Corporacion Minera Boliviana (COMIBOL) which together generate the bulk of

1/ Existing railways consist of two unconnected systems. The western system was built in the late 19th and 20th centuries, in response to the needs of the mining industry. The eastern system was built in the early 1960s to connect the Santa Cruz area with Brazil and Argentina.

2/ 1,170 kilometers (3%) are paved; 6,560 kilometers (17%) are gravel sur- faced and the remainder, 29,830 kilometers (80%), are improved earth roads. The most important part of the network is located in the western and southern highlands and valleys. - 28 -

electrical power in the country. Most of the present consumption is concentrated in four non-interconnected systems--Central, Southern, Northern and Eastern--each one with its own production units, transmission and distribution lines. The Government hopes to increase the production of electricity by an annual average rate of 7.8% compared to the 6% registered during the 1967-75 period. Installed capacity would rise from the present level of 350 lfW to 440 MW in 1980 of which 50% would be hydroelectric and 50% thermal. An additional 900 kilometers of high power transmission lines would be built to facilitate the interconnection of the Central and Southern systems and to provide electricity to 400,000 persons in rural areas at present without service.

65. The health situation in Bolivia is a serious national problem. Life expectancy at birth as estimated by the 1975 Nlational Demographic Sampling Survey is about 47 years for men and 51 for women. The death rate in rural areas (224 per thousand) is higher than in urban communities (159 per thousand). Infant mortality is even more dramatic. One out of five children dies before its second birthday. The death rate for children less than two years old ranges between 140 per thousand in the Beni to 256 per thousand in Potosi, and the death rate is higher in the Altiplano (218 per thousand) than in the Valles (196 per thousand) and Tropical zones (145 per thousand). Moreover, the death rate for this age group increases from 111 per thousand among children of women with seven or more years of education to 245 per thousand among children of women with no education and the death rate is higher for children of women who do not speak Spanish (258 per thousand) than for children of women who do speak it (149 per thousand). The high mortality rates are in large measure the result of diseases which could either be completely eradicated (e.g., gastro-intestinal, respiratory, parasitical, typhus, malaria) or could be greatly reduced (e.g., tuberculosis, diphteria, tetanus, measles). The reasons for this situation are multiple. Bolivia's population is young with over one-half under 20 years of age and prone to diseases. Malnutrition is directly or indirectly the main agent influencing the high death rates among children younger than four years of age. The nutritional level of the population measured by caloric and animal protein intake is below minimum needs. The average daily food requirement per person in Bolivia is estimated at 2,200 calories, or 16% over the actual estimated intake. tIalnutrition is even more acute in the Altiplano region where the relative deficit is 17%.

66. Sanitary conditions are sub-standard. Only 60% of the urban population has access to drinking water and 23% has access to sewerage facilities. In the rural areas the situation is much worse with only 10% enjoying access to drinking water and 8% to sewerage facilities. Both material and human medical resources are insufficient. There are only 1.6 hospital beds per 1,000 inhabitants and the physical infrastructure is concentrated in urban and suburban areas leaving rural zones virtually without medical services. There are only 4.5 physician, 2.1 dentists and 1.6 nurses per 10,000 inhabitants.

67. The authorities are targeting an expansion of daily per capita calorie consumption from 1,890 in 1975 to 2,200 calories by 1980. At the - 29 - same time, daily per capita protein consumption would be increased from 44 grams to 56 grams between the initial and end years. Domestic production of high protein foods will be stimulated through credit: and price incentives. Attention will focus on possibilities for manufacture and distribution of formulated and fortified foods. Programs for integrated rural development will be employed as means of promoting improved nutrition in rural areas.

68. Urban and rural development guidelines will be established to carry out a sizeable expansion of water and sewerage facilities so as to extend drinking water services to 67% of the urban and 17% of the rural population by 1980, and to provide sewerage facilities to 37% of the urban and 22% of the rural population at the end of the plan period.

69. Bolivian's demographic structure presents a serious obstacle to the development of educational services. The population is sparsely distributed and although some 60% of Bolivians speak Quechua, Aymara and Guarani, the language of instruction in all schools is Spanish. These obstacles are aggravated by an educational system largely geared to academic studies which bear little relation to the students' environment and job opportunities. Formal education comprises four levels: pre-primary (2 years), primary (2 years basic and 3 years intermediate), diversified secondary (4 years), higher education (2-6 years) including technician courses, teacher training and universities. There are three types of formal education institutions--public, private and "decentralized". Private institutions, mostly affiliated with church organizations, exist at all levels and their recurrent expenditures are partly subsidized by the Government. Decentralized authorities, principally government-owned mining and petroleum corporations, run and finance their own schools. The one private and eight public universities are independent, although subsidized by the Government. The Ministry of Education and Culture administers all public education and supervises the decentralized and private institutions, except for universities. In the past six years total education expenditures ranged from 5.3% to 5.5% of GDP, public education accounting for some 4.6% to 5.0% of GDP and 17.5% of total public expenditures (excluding export enterprises).

70. Illiteracy rates among the population 15 years old and above dropped from 64% in 1960 to 60% in 1975. However, the single most important issue facing the Government is the low efficiency of the educational system. Rural education is inadequate and rural schools have high student drop-out rates and irregular attendance. (Many factors contribute to this including: the need for children to contribute to family labor, negative attitude of parents towards schooling, especially for girls, physical inaccessibility of schools; climatic and geographic conditions, irrelevant curricula, and obsolete teaching methods, language problems and lack of school places). Only 150 out of 1,000 students who start the basic cycle in rural areas graduate. Although schools in urban zones are generally of much higher standard they also show low retention rates. Thus, only 760 out of 1,000 students who started the basic cycle at private urban schools graduated during the 1970-75 period. The number was even lower, 600, at public schools. - 30 -

71. In 1973, Bolivia had the lowest average primary pupil teacher ratio in all of Central and South America (24:1) which translates directly into very high recurrent cost. Recurrent expenditures per pupil in the Ministry of Education are set at about US$65 in basic education and US$139 in intermediate education. It is estimated that an increase in student/teacher ratio to about 35:1 by 1985 in basic education and 22:1 in intermediate schools, together with a more rational distribution of school directors, would decrease recurrent costs per student and lend to economies of as much as 30%-40% compared with the system using 1976 practices.

72. The authorities will attempt to expand and strengthen a relevant and cost-effective primary education system and will provide non-formal community education and training for out-of-school children and adults in rural areas. It is hoped that enrollment in the basic cycle can be increased at an annual average rate of 4.6% in rural areas and 3.1% in urban zones through 1980. If this target is achieved 81% of the children in the corresponding school age bracket will be attending school by the end of the decade. Similarly, attendance rates of 44% and 24% are targeted for the intermediate and secondary levels respectively.

73. At the same time, the authorities will endeavor to link education more closely to the skills required by the economy and a more comprehensive education program for adults integrating academic and vocational training, will be implemented. Finally, the Government expects an increase in university enrollment from 33,600 students in 1975 to 54,800 in, 1980.

Growth Prospects

74. Bolivia's ability to carry out the ambitious programs called for in the Five-Year Plan depends on a multiplicity of factors, some of which are amenable to government policy and others which are exogenous. Naturally, the availability of domestic and external resources for development will depend on success of exploration efforts in locating additional oil and gas deposits. Whether these efforts succeed or not is to a considerable extent outside the government's control. In addition, since it has an open economy, Bolivia's development prospects will be strongly influenced by the evolution of its external terms of trade, which are entirely exogenous. Within this framework, however, economic policy will have a strong influence on the country's ability to sustain rapid growth and broaden the distribution of its benefits. Specific areas where policy decisions will be critical include:

(a) generation of sufficient internal savings (both public and private). This would include adopting an incomes' policy aimed at limiting the growth of consumption and increasing the government's revenue base by fully implementing reform of the personal income tax and mining tax;

(b) channelling public investment resources into projects which have a strong near-term pay-off in terms of export earnings, as in the hydrocarbons and minerals sectors, and into infrastructure directly supporting productive activity; - 31 -

(c) Maintaining proper price incentives for the ,-ommodity producing sectors (especially agriculture and petroleum) and assuring an adequate flow of credit to these sectors (including long term); and,

(d) carefully managing aggregate demand and keeping external borrowing requirements to a level consistent with longer- term debt servicing capacity.

75. Within this general context, the maximum rate of growth sustainable over the next few years will depend heavily on the evo:Lution of the hydrocarbons sector and on the implementation of the investment program to be submitted to the next consultative Group Meeting by the Bolivian authorities. Two growth options have been developed on the basis of different assumptions concerning the speed with which exploitation of hydrocarbon resources proceeds and the role of private foreign investors in financing investment in the sector.

76. The first or lower projection suggests that an annual growth rate of real GDP of 5.2% could be attained. 1/ The underlying assumption for this projection is that hydrocarbons development, especially the share of crude oil production, will grow slowly and its effect on the economy, particularly the balance of payments, will not be felt before the late 1970s. It assumes, however, that the present downward trend of mining output will be reversed and increased activity in commercial agriculture and construction will stimulate accelerated industrial output. Attaining this growth rate would require a major effort to strengthen exports, improved efficiency of the public sector, sustain high levels of investment and savings and reduce the import intensity of consumption. Investment requirements would average 21% of GDY (an implicit ICOR of about 4). The primary responsibility for attaining adequate savings and investment levels will rest with the public sector, which is the main recipient of export earnings as well as the most important producer and investor of the economy. Public investment during 1977-80 would have to increase at an annual average rate of 8% and reach nearly 15% of GDP by 1980, compared with 13% in 1975. The magnitude of public investment required calls for lowest cost solutions and accelerated project preparation and implementation.

77. Financing the investment level of 21% of GDY targeted for the period 1977-80 would require a marginal savings rate of 14.5%. This rate could be attained if the annual rate of growth of total consumption were reduced from 7% in 1971-76 to 5% in 1977-80. This would entail keeping wage increases in line with productivity growth and limiting consumption through more progressive income and expenditure taxes. Restricting growth of consumption is also necessary to reduce demand pressures and to maintain financial stability. With imports of capital goods rising rapidly, the growth of

1/ These projections are more conservative than the 7.7% GDP growth target in the Develoment Plan, largely because of the assumption that the major impact of hydrocarbon and mining investment now underway will not be felt before the end of this decade. - 32 - other imports will have to be restrained. In order to pay for the higher level of imports and to service foreign debt and investment, a major effort to strengthen the export sector will be essential to the country's econmic strategy. There are good export prospects for livestock, coffee, lumber and sugar provided that transport and marketing bottlenecks are eased. Export of minerals is expected to benefit from improved world demand conditions at the same time that mining and domestic refining capacities are expanded.

78. The second or higher alternative assumes that development of hydrocarbon resources is more rapid and that exports begin to grow rapidly in the early 1980s. Under this more optimistic assumption, GDP growth could average 6.2% per year during the rest of the decade. The level of investment required would be equivalent to 24% of GDY. This alternative would require a somewhat lower marginal saving rate and allow a more rapid growth of consumption than the first because of higher net private foreign investment inflows associated with hydrocarbon development and greater future debt servicing capacity. Net private foreign investment would rise from the low levels of 1973-75 to a total of around US$310 million in 1977-80. A marginal national savings rate of 5.2% would be required and the rate of growth of consumption could be 6.7%. Because of large hydrocarbon-related investment, imports are expected to reach particular high levels around the turn of the decade. Consequently, the import elasticity (with respect to GDP) has been projected to remain at 1.16 during 1977-80. This would result in large balance of payments deficits on current account which would decline in the 1980s as hydrocarbon-led export growth exceeds increases in investment-related imports and as investment in mining projects comes to fruition. - 33 -

Table 7: GROWTH OF MACROECONOMIC PARAMETERS

Projected Estimated Lower Growth High Growth 1977 1980 1977 1980 1976 1980 1985 1980 1985

Gross Domestic Product 6.5 5.2 5.4 6.2 6.2 Agriculture 4.9 5.5 5.5 / 6.0 6.0 Mining 5.0 4.5 5.1 4.5 5.1 Hydrocarbons 4.9 5.7 13.5 15.0 Industry 10.1 5.5 5. 9 6.0 6.1

Gross Domestic Income 5.6 5.3 5.4 6.4 6.1

Exports 12.5 4.8 6.8 4.9 9.4 Exports - TT Adjusted 10.4 5.1 7.0 5.2 8.7 Imports -2.2 3.8 4.6 7.3 3.9

Investment 2.4 4.5 5.0 7.8 2.9 Consumption 1.5 5.0 4.6 6.7 5.2 Gross National Savings 29.5 5.2 8.7 2.1 9.9

Source: Mission Estimates.

79. In short, the rate of growth that can be sustained during the end of the 1970s will depend heavily, although not entirely, on the timing of hydrocarbon-related investment and on the success of exploration for additional petroleum and gas deposits. While prospects of new discoveries are encouraging, there is some uncertainty about when they will come on stream. There is also the risk that some of the exploration efforts will prove fruitless. Consequently, if hydrocarbon exports or foreign financing turn out to be lower than expected or should it prove impossible to reduce consumption and import growth sufficiently, the growth of output and investment would have to be adjusted to a lower level.

Public Investment

80. During the 1977-80 four-year period, public sector investment would have to. reach US$1.2 billion under the lower growth alternative and US$1.4 billion under the higher option (in constant 1974 prices; equivalent to 14.0% and 15.8% of GDP, respectively).

81. Historically, public sector savings have been equivalent to 6.2% of GDP, sufficient to finance 50% of public investment. Recent measures taken by the Government and personal income and mining tax reforms are expected to improve public sector savings, provided the Government maintains control over the growth of current expenditures. In the past, revenue measures tended to concentrate in the area of taxation. More attention should be gtven to non- tax revenue, to periodic tariff adjustments of public enterprises, particularly to the price of gasoline and to the control of their current expenditures. A - 34 - policy based on firm control on non-developmental expenditures would release funds needed to finance essential services which have failed to reach adequate levels in the past. This would entail restraint in the hiring of new personnel and a policy of limiting current transfers to the rest of the public sector. If state-owned enterprises as a group manage to achieve adequate returns, public savings compatible with the envisaged investment would be feasible. It is expected that the state export enterprises, YPFB and COMIBOL, will make substantial contributions to public sector savings during 1977-80. It is also envisaged that current plans to introduce much needed reforms will be successfully carried out, including upgrading management through the introduction of modern control methods and gradual efforts to reduce redundant personnel. The introduction of similar efficiency measures in decentralized agencies, although not likely to result in large current surpluses, would allow them to increase the extent of their operations without greatly increasing their burden on the Treasury.

Table 8: PUBLIC FINANCE SECTOR SAVING AND INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS, 1976-80 (1974 US$ million and Percent)

Lower Growth Higher Growth Alternative Alternative 1971-76 1977-80 1977-80

Total Public Investment 1229.0 - 1215 1399

Financed by:

Public Savings 614 606 679 External Borrowing (net) 535 500 635 Domestic Borrowing (net) 80 109 85

As % of GDP:

Public Savings 6.2 7.0 7.7 External Borrowing 5.4 5.8 7.2 Domestic Borrowing 0.8 1.3 1.0

As % of Public Investment:

Public Savings 50 50 49 External Borrowing 44 41 45 Domestic Borrowing 6 9 6

82. Public sector savings are expected to finance 50% of total public investment for the entire period 1977-80 under the lower growth alterntive and 49% under the higher growth alternative. Domestic borrowing could finance 9% of total public investment under the lower alternative and 6% in higher alternative. As a general rule, government borrowing from the banking system should not exceed 2% of GDP in years of heavy investment so as to - 35 - keep credit expansion of the banking system within the limits consistent with the goal of price stability. A substantial savings investment gap equivalent to US$0.8 - US$1.0 billion in current prices would nevertheless remain to be covered by foreign loans. Including foreign debt amortization of about US$450- US$510 million due between 1977 and 1980, gross external capital requirements would be approaching US$1.2 billion in the lower growth case and US$1.5 billion in the higher growth case, respectively.

83. The "projectizable" portion of planned public investment and its foreign exchange component will be significantly higher than in the past. Of public investment likely to be carried out during 1977--80, about 90% may be "projectizable", with a foreign exchange component of 80% for hydrocarbon and mining investment and 70% for the remainder. The foreign exchange component for projects in the agricultural, education and health sectors would be much lower since their requirements for imported equipment and materials is limited. If external lenders were to finance only the foreign exchange component of projects, external resources transferred to the public sector would fall short or external capital requirements by an amount varying between US$87 million in current prices in the lower growth alternative and US$94 million in the higher growth alternative. In order to close this gap external lenders would have to be prepared to finance a small proportion of local cost of public investment.

Table 9: PROJECTED PUBLIC SECTOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE COMPONENT, 1977-80 /1 (In US$ millions)

Lower Growth Higher Growth Alternative Alternative

Projectizable Public Investment 1,635 1,868

Required Financing 1,267 1,448

(a) Foreign Exchange Component of Projectizable Investment 1,180 1,354

(b) Required External Financing of Domestic Currency Component of Projectizable Investment 87 94

/1 This would be consistent with the total public investment program of about US$3 billion over the five year period 1977-81.

Balance of Payments Prospects and External Capital Requirements

84. Bolivia's balance of payments and growth prospects will depend heavily on the success of hydrocarbons exploration now underway and on mining output expansion. The outlook for hydrocarbon exports although very - 36 -

favorable is not entirely clear. It is likely, however, that there will be a substantial expansion of foreign sales of oil and/or natural gas in the early 1980s and some growth is possible even earlier. The expectation that Bolivia will be able to raise its export earnings significantly has greatly improved the country's access to the international capital market. It is natural and even desireable for a country at Bolivia's stage of development to wish to borrow in anticipation of increased foreign exchange earnings to expand the resources available to the econmy in the interim. How- ever, if accumulation of new external debt of short maturity and relatively hard terms continues at the pace reached during 1975 and 1976, debt service obligations could increase to the point where a delay in the hydrocarbons program or a decline in the rate of success of exploration efforts could result in external liquidity problems by the late 1970s or early 1980s. It is important, therefore, that Bolivia exercise restraint in the growth of aggregate expenditure, not neglect efforts to expand and diversify exports other than hydrocarbons and monitor the accumulation of external debt very carefully.

Export Prospects

85. The intensified exploration program of YPFB and foreign conces- sionaries has thus far produced satisfactory results. While drilling in the Altiplano has been fruitless, prospects for natural gas have improved with the discovery of new deposits in the southern region of the country. Gas and condesate have recently been found in a new field at Montecristo near Santa Cruz. Although the scale of these discoveries has not yet been established, they appear significant and have raised hopes that by mid-1977 Bolivia could increase crude production by 5,000 to 10,000 bpd from its present level of 40,000 bpd. Moreover, the Government has recently indicated that natural gas reserves are sufficient to increase exports to Argentina and to Brazil and to provide feedstock for a domestic petrochemical industry (current reserves of natural gas are estimated at at least 2.2 trillion cubic feet). While estimates are somewhat speculative at this point, a 15% per year growth of value of hydrocarbon exports during 1977-80 seems attainable. Most of the increase would occur late in the decade. If hydrocarbon production, refining, and shipping facilities are expanded as currently envisaged, the sector would become the country's dominant export activity during the early 1980s.

86. Medium-term demand and price prospects for Bolivia's mineral exports depend on the level of industrial activity in the OECD countries, competition from substitutes and secondary materials, and to some extent on sales from the US stockpile. On the supply side, world mining and refining costs are bound to exert strong influence on future price levels. The volume of minerals exported by Bolivia will depend on increased efforts to improve operational efficiency. Unless these are implemented expeditiously, mining costs are likely to increase in real terms as gradual exhaustion of deposits now in production makes it necessary to move to less rewarding and less easily accessible deposits. Nevertheless, there is substantial potential for expanding output from about a dozen medium and small mines and some COMIBOL mines by intensified reserve development, moderate mechanization and upgrading of mine - 37 - operations. There are also at least five known ore bodies that lack comple- tion of reserve development, project engineering and mineral testing before they can be brought into production. Initial potential of most of these mines is 100-500 tons ore per day which is small by internatLonal standards but quite substantial relative to Bolivia's present mining capacity.

87. The estimates of the evolution of world supp:Ly and demand for primary commodities indicate that prices of some of Bolivia's major mineral export products (e.g., tin, zinc, copper and lead) will continue to be lower than their 1974 peak levels. Nevertheless, they would increase in real terms through 1980. Demand for tin, which will mainly depend on the growth of the container industry and on special use industrial chemicals, is likely to expand faster in developing countries and centrally-planned economies than in developed countries. However, the pace will be set by the latter, which account for 75% of tin consumption. Income elasticity of demand for tin in developed countries is quite low when compared with other metals. Con- sequently, demand growth for tin is likely to remain at: its low historical rate of 1-2% per annum. World tin output and prices are likely to follow a cyclical pattern through 1985 as production is expected to react with a lag to the movement in real prices. It can be expected that there will be a delay supply response in the high 1973/74 prices around 1978, resulting in over- supplies and downward pressure on prices which in turn might lead to slower output growth and faster price increases in the early L980s. Under these conditions, it should be possible for Bolivia to recover its market position in the tin market if the industry improves its competitiveness both in mining and refining activities. Tin exports are expected to grow by 8.5% per year over 1977-80 and at a somewhat higher rate in the firsi: half of the 1980s. Despite the relatively slow growth of this export, it would account for about 20% of the total growth of exports during the period.

88. Medium-term demand and price forecasts suggest favorable export prospects for other metallic minerals. Demand for zinc is likely to benefit from the economic recovery of industrialized countries.. Substitution by plastics has not proven very successful and the trend of the 1960s might be reversed. The use of zinc has been successfully extended to new industrial applications. Consumption of zinc in the medium term is expected to rise faster than GDP in OECD countries. Although upward pressure on world prices is likely to result from increased smelting costs caused by higher costs of energy and antipollution devices, demand growth is likely to be the most important factor influencing world prices. Silver with its unique properties-- high electrical and thermal conductivity, high resistance to corrosion and extreme photosensitivity--is practically irreplaceable for many industrial uses. Silver consumption has exceeded production in recent years, resulting in depletion of stocks. As supply shortages are likely to persist because the richest deposits have already been mined out, significant price increases for silver can be expected. Demiand for antimony has been rising rapidly for chemical uses but much slower in other industries where substitution has been encouraged by rapidly rising prices. Nevertheless, price prospects are likely Table 10: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, 1976-85 (Current US$ million)

Annual Average Contribution to /1 /1 Growth Rate Growth 1975- 1976- 1980 1985 1976-80 1981-85 1976-80 1981-85

Medium Growth Alternative

Tin 152.8 191.1 249.8 454.8 6.9 11.2 18.6 20.9 Zinc 14.2 16.0 36.1 72.3 22.6 14.5 6.9 4.0 Silver 24.8 20.8 34.9 41.1 13.8 7.0 5.2 1.4 Antimony 15.3 27.3 33.4 51.4 5.2 10.2 1.8 2.0 Petroleum 111.4 114.3 196.1 368.3 14.4 13.4 26.5 20.3 Natural Gas 42.5 56.4 92.7 196.5 13.2 15.6 11.2 12.2 Sugar 21.2 23.5 27.9 52.4 4.4 13.4 1.2 2.7 Manufactured Goods 1.9 2.5 5.4 12.3 21.2 17.7 1.1 0.7 Other Goods 79.9 92.1 176.0 440.6 18.7 21.9 27.5 35.8

Total Merchandise Exports 464.0 544.0 852.3 1689.8 12.1 14.7 100.0 100.0

High Growth Alternative co Tin 152.8 191.1 249.8 456.8 6.9 14.5 16.9 20.7 Zinc 14.2 16.0 36.1 72.3 22.6 14.5 6.5 3.4 Silver 24.8 20.8 34.9 41.1 13.8 7.0 4.8 1.1 Antimony 15.3 27.3 33.4 51.4 5.2 10.2 1.6 1.7 Petroleum 111.4 114.3 201.7 578.5 15.3 17.7 28.2 30.5 Natural Gas 42.5 56.4 92.7 210.4 13.2 23.1 9.7 13.2 Sugar 21.2 23.5 27.9 52.4 4.4 13.4 1.6 2.3 Manufactured Goods 1.9 2.5 5.4 12.3 21.2 17.7 0.8 0.6 Other Goods 79.9 92.1 176.0 458.9 18.7 20.4 29.8 26.4

Total Merchandise Exports 464.0 544.0 857.9 1932.1 12.2 17.2 100.0 100.0

/1 Provisional Source: Bolivian Authorities and Mission Estimates Table 11: MERCHANDISE IMPORTS, 1976-85 (Current US$ million)

Annual Average 1/ 1/ Growth Rate Percent ComDosition 1975- 1976- 1980 1985 1976-80 1981-85 1976 1980 1985

Medium Growth Alternative

Food 55.1 56.2 89.5 148.8 12.3 10.9 10.4 10.0 9.5 Other Consumer Goods 62.0 60.7 108.1 183.5 15.5 11.1 11.2 12.1 11.7 Fuels 6.9 7.3 11.5 18.6 12.0 10.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 Raw Materials and Intermediate Goods 165.9 160.4 299.5 533.2 16.9 12.3 29.7 33.5 33.9 Capital Goods 195.6 216.0 339.9 607.4 12.0 12.4 40.0 38.1 38.7 Other Goods 44.5 40.0 44.5 78.2 2.7 11.9 7.4 5.0 5.0

Imports of Goods 530.0 540.6 893.0 1569.7 13.4 12.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

High Growth Alternative

Food 55.1 56.2 93.0 156.0 13.4 11.3 10.4 8.9 8.8 Other Consumer Goods 62.0 60.7 111.2 192.5 16.3 11.8 11.2 10.6 10.8 Fuels 6.9 7.3 11.7 19.6 12.5 11.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 Raw Materials and Intermediate Goods 165.9 160.4 308.9 563.3 17.8 12.8 29.7 29.5 31.7 Capital Goods 195.6 216.0 470.9 758.7 21.5 10.8 40.0 44.9 42.6 Other Goods 44.5 40.0 51.9 88.5 6.7 11.6 7.4 5.0 5.0

Imports of Goods 530.0 540.6 1047.5 1778.6 18.0 12.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

1/ Provisional Source: Bolivian Authorities and Mission Estimates - 40 -

to be good, particularly for antimony trioxide which is used as a fire- retardant and has strong potential on the US market. Foreign exchange earnings from this group of minerals are projected to increase at 13.0% per year over the period 1977-80.

89. While export performance would continue to be dominated by extrac- tive industries, strong growth of commercial agriculture could resume if the Government's development efforts are successful, contributing significantly to Bolivia's export performance. There are favorable export prospects for cotton, sugar, timber and coffee. Export volumes for commercial agricultural products are projected to increase between 4% and 6% annually.

90. Projections of total merchandise exports for 1980 are rather similar in the lower and higher growth alternatives. In either case, total exports are to reach about US$850 million by 1980, implying a growth rate of somewhat over 12%. Because of the time lags involved in bringing hydro-carbon reserves into production, discoveries of new reserves made over the next few years will have a modest impact on exports before 1980. These will largely be government by discoveries already made and by the implementation of projects to expand gas exports to Argentina. Substantial gas exports to Brazil are unlikely before 1980. The full impact of more intensive development of the hydrocarbon sector would be felt in the 1981-85 period when growth of total exports would average 17.2% in the higher alternative compared with 14.7% in the lower growth case.

Import Requirements

91. The lower growth alternative for 1977-80 would imply a 5.4% annual rate of growth of merchandise imports (in real terms), while the higher growth alternative would require a 9.7% rate of growth of imports. The difference in the implicit import elasticities of the two alternatives is substantial because of the import requirements associated with more rapid development of the hydrocarbon sector. These are particularly high, close to 60% for investment exploration and at least 70% for production and transport facilities.

92. The pace of growth of import volumes projected under the higher growth alternative is similar to the 9.0% annual rate of increase since 1971. Consumer goods imports increased rapidly during 1974-75, stimulated by a policy of import liberalization. The rate of growth of consumer goods imports has been brought down in 1976 by policies, outlined above, to control the expansion of consumption, and the rate of growth of the food import bill which averaged about 16% per year in real terms during 1971-75 could be reduced if government programs to encourage import substitution are implemented soon.

93. While the terms of trade for Bolivia are not expected to deteriorate over 1977-80, import prices are expected to rise at a 7-8% annual pace. In current dollar terms, therefore, imports can be expected to grow by over 13% in the lower growth alternative and over 18% in the higher growth case. - 41 -

94. While the resource gap is expected to decline under the lower growth alternative, it is expected to widen under the higher alternative even if imports of non-essential goods are compressed and growth of imports is reduced through substitution programs. In addition, interest payments abroad will increase reflecting heavier utilization of foreign loans. Thus, increased deficits on current account can be expected which would decline only when hydrocarbon-led growth and exports from mining and refining expansion starts to exceed increased in investment-related imports.

External Capital Requirements

95. In addition to the current account deficits, the country will face substantial loan repayments, ranging from US$450 to US$500 million on existing debt, between 1977 and 1980. Capital inflows required to cover current account deficits, amortization of existing debt and to assure the maintenance of appropriate levels of external reserves, would average US$347 million (in current prices) annually during 1977-80 in the lower growth alternative and US$464 million in the higher growth alternative. The larger requirements in the second case are expected to be covered partly by increased foreign direct private investment (mainly in hydrocarbons) and partly by increased medium and long-term loans. The public sector, whose share in investment is likely to grow further, would have to obtain at least US$310 million annually from abroad in the first alternative and US$364 million in the second. Although institutional and bilateral lenders will probably be prepared to increase their assistance for suitable projects, a proportion,ranging between 20% and 30% of external capital required by the public sector will have to be mobilized through financial and suppliers' credits.

96. Bolivia's external debt outstanding and disbursed at end 1976 amounted to US$1.0 billion. Service on external debt amounted to 18.8% of exports of goods and non-factor services (net of investment income abroad). While average terms of the external debt outstanding have remained relatively soft, they are likely to harden over the near future. With the substantial disbursements envisaged during the next few years external debt outstanding and disbursed might reach US$1.9 billion (in current prices) by 1980, the service of which would absorb'some 24% of export receipts. In view of the projected heavy commitment of foreign exchange earnings to debt service, careful management of the external debt is essential. The Government should continue its efforts to mobilize external capital through project loans to the greatest extent possible, in order to take advantage of the better terms available for such purposes and benefit from the technical assistance often connected with this type of loan. The preparation of an external borrowing plan which would ensure that the growth of debt in the next few years moves along a manageable path would be essential. The Consultative Group Meeting is expected to help the Government to formalize an external borrowing plan which would insure sound debt management in the next few years. In preparing the project list for the consultative group the Bolivian authorities have provided a framework which would insure that external capital would only be used for highly productive purposes, an essential requirement for effective management of the external sector. - 42 -

Creditworthiness

97. Bolivia possesses considerable natural resources for development and recent experience suggests that the economy responds favorably to sound economic management. The Government has made important advances towards formulating a coherent and consistent set of overall economic policies and has completed its first five-year development plan (1976-80). The planning function of the Ministry of Planning and Coordination has been strengthened, an Institute for Pre-Investment Studies and Project Preparation (INALPRE) has been created under the Ministry and external borrowing has been centralized in the Institute for External Financing (NDEF) in the Ministry of Finance. A National Projects Committee was established, headed by the Undersecretary of Planning and Coordination: the membership includes the Undersecretary of Finance, President of the Central Bank and the directors of INALPRE and INDEF. This Committee selects projects of national priority which are passed on to CONEPLAN which drafts a decree law for the project and to INDEF which assess the necessary external financing. At'the same time, the Government is broadening its revenue base with the implementation of personal income and mining tax reforms. The authorities expect to undertake a broader fiscal reform once the Harvard mission submits its final report later in 1977. The Government has also gradually increased the permitted maximum level of interest rates which has now led to positive interest rates in most sectors of the economy. If the present course of economic policy is sustained, the long-term growth and balance of payments prospects are good. Moreover, if the external capital is mobilized prudently, the service burden of the external debt should be held within manageable proportions. Under these circumstances, Bolivia's creditworthiness could improve sufficiently to render it eligible for reasonable enlargement of external lending on conventional terms. Table 12: EXTERNAL CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS AND FINANCING (In US$ million)

MEDIUM GROWTH HIGH GROWTH ALTERNATIVE ALTERNATIVE Average Average Average Average Average 1971-75 1976 1977-80 1981-85 1977-80 1981-85

Exports of Goods & NFS 366.3 601.1 815.1 1,423.0 839.9 1,555.0 Import of Goods & NFS 404.4 708.5 950.8 1,575.6 1,058.5 1,779.8 Resource Balance -38.1 -107.4 -135.7 -152.6 -218.6 -224.8 Net Factor Services -25.2 -46.9 -76.5 -131.2 -85.6 -192.8 Transfers, Net 12.2 14.0 8.4 5.0 8.4 5.0

Current Account Balance -51.1 -140.3 -203.8 -278.8 -295.8 -412.6

Amortization 41.8 -73.0 -113.0 -186.0 -126.7 -231.7

Capital Required 92.9 213.3 316.8 464.8 422.5 -644.3

Financing

Direct Foreign Investment 13.5 37.0 33.8 40.0 78.1 122.1 Official Capital Grants 7.5 7.0 1.7 - 1.7 - Public Medium & Long Term Loans 100.2 259.6 311.6 459.7 361.9 558.3 Other Medium & Long Term Loans 11.0 15.3 - - 22.0 - Capital NEI, Errors & Omissions -26.4 -52.7 - - - Change in Net Reserves (- Increase) -12.9 -52.9 -30.3 -34.9 -41.2 -36.1

Source: Mission Estimates.

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table of Contents

Table

1. POPULATION

1.1 Population Estimates by Region and Department, 1L950-75 1.2 Population Estimates by Department and Age Group, 1973 1.3 Population Estimates by Sex and Age Group, 1971 1.4 Regional Distribution and Density of the Total and Rural Population, 1972 1.5 Urban and Rural Population, Estimates and Projections, 1950-80 1.6 Labor Force and Employment by Economic Sectors, 1970-75

2. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

2.1 Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin at Current Prices, 1968-75 2.2 Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin at Constant Prices, 1968-76 2.3 Implicit Deflators of GDP by Sector of Origin, 1968-75 2.4 Growth and Composition of GDP by Sector of Origi.n, 1968-76 2.5 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product at Current: Prices, 1968-76 2.6 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product at Constant Prices, 1968-76 2.7 Gross Fixed Capital Formation of the Public Sector, 1968-75 2.8 Summary Growth Projections, 1977-85 (Medium Growth Rate) 2.9 Summary Growth Projections, 1977-85 (High Growth. Rate)

3. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

3.1 Balance of Payments, 1968-76 3.2 Merchandise Exports, 1968-76 3.3 Merchandise Imports, 1969-76 3.4 Direction of Trade, 1970-75 3.5 Terms of Trade, 1968-76 3.6' Balance of Payments, Projected 1977-85 (Medium Growth) 3.7 Balance of Payments, Projected 1977-85 (High Growth)

4. EXTERNAL DEBT

4.1 Service on External Public Debt, 1968-76 4.2 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1975 Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency and Goods 4.3 Service Payments, Commitments, Disbursements and Outstanding Amounts of External Public Debt - Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency and Goods, 1968-g5 4.4 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December .31, 1976 - Debt Repayable in Local Currency - ii -

4.5 Service Payments, Commitments, Disbursements and Outstanding Amounts of External Public Debt - Debt Repayable in Local Currency, 1968-95 4.6 Commitments of External Public Debt, by Source, Sectoral Allocation and Recipient, 1968-76

5. PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCES

5.1 Public Sector Resources for Investment, 1970-75 5.2 Public Sector Resources for Investment, 1970-75 (As Percentage of GDP at Market Prices) 5.3 Public Sector Resources for Investment, 1970-75 (Percentage Distribution) 5.4 Analysis of Consolidated Public Sector Finances, 1970-75 5.5 Central Government Operations, 1970-75 5.6 Central Government Current Revenue, 1970-75 5.7 Central Government Current Expenditures, 1970-75 5.8 Treasury Cash Operations, 1970-75 5.9 Decentralized Agencies-Revenue and Expenditures, 1970-76 5.10 Export Enterprises Revenue and Expenditures, 1970-76 5.11 Other Enterprises Revenue and Expenditures, 1970-76 5.12 Municipalities'Revenues and Expenditures, 1970-76 5.13 Public Sector Transfer Payments To/From Central Government, 1970-75

6. MONETARY STATISTICS

6.1 Summary Accounts of the Banking System, 1968-76 6.2 Operations of the State Bank, 1968-76 6.3 Operations of the Private Commercial Banks, 1968-76 6.4 Operations of the Agricultural Bank, 1968-75 6.5 Operations of the Mining Bank, 1968-75 6.6 Operations of the Industrial Bank, 1968-75 6.7 Operations of the National Mortgage Bank, 1968-75 6.8 Composition of Money Supply, 196°-76 6.9 Bank Credit By Origin, Distribution and Financing, 1968-76 6.10 Selected Interest Rates, 1968-75

7. AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS

7.1 Geographical Distribution of Agricultural Bank Credit, 1970-75 7.2 Sectoral Distribution of Agricultural Bank Credit, 1970-75 7.3 Production of Major Agricultural Crops, 1970-75 - iii -

8. OTHER SECTORS

8.1 Production, Domestic Use and Exports of Petroleum and Natural Gas, 1968-76 8.2 Distribution of Investment Projects Approved by INI by Indistrial Sub-Sectors, 1972-75

9. PRICES

9.1 Retail Price Index, 1968-76

Table 1.1: POPULATION ESTIMATES BY REGION AND DEPARTMENT. 1950-1975 (in thousands)

Region and Department 1950 1960 1965 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Total - Bolivia 3,019.0 3,824.6 4,334.0 4,931.2 5,062.5 5,194.3 5,360.7 5,470.1 5,633.8

Altiplano 1,693.1 2,122.1 2,395.9 2,719.5 2,790.7 2,862.8 2,960,7 3,017.6 3,102.1 La Paz 948.4 1,222.4 1,392.6 1,590.6 1,633.9 1,677.4 1,723.3 1,765.0 1,821.5 Oruro 210.3 261.0 293.8 332.8 341.3 350.1 360.0 367.1 379.1 Potosi 534.4 638.7 709.5 796.1 815.5 835.3 877.4 885.5 901.5

Valle 900.2 1,149.4 1.305,9 1,487.1 1,526.6 1,565,7 1,610,1 1,645.5 1,699.0 Chuquisaca 282.9 351.4 395.6 448.3 459.9 470.9 484.6 494.0 510.6 Cochabamba 490.5 619.9 701.9 798.1 819.3 840.6 863.6 884.0 911.5 Tarija 126.8 178.1 208.4 240.7 247.4 254.2 261.9 267.5 276.9

Llanos 425.7 553.1 632.2 724.6 745.2 765.8 789.9 807.0 832.7 Santa Cruz 286.1 379.5 436.4 502.7 517.5 532.3 548.5 561.7 579.9 Beni 119.8 149.0 168.0 190.5 195.4 200.3 206.4 209.8 217.0 Pando 19.8 '24.6 27.8 31.4 32.3 33.2 35.0 35.5 35.8

General Note: Most of the Departments fall under more than one region; each has been placed under the region where the majority of its population concentrates.

Source: National Institute of Statistics. Table 1.2: POPULATION ESTIMATES BY DEP'AITMENT AND AJE 3ROUP, 1973 (Thousands)

Population Ages Ages Department Total 6 - 14 15 - 19

La Paz 1,723.3 319.5 146.4

Potosi 877.4 158.5 74.5

Cochabamba 863.6 160.1 73.3

Santa Cruz 548.5 101.7 46.6

2huquisaca 484.6 89.8 41.2

Oruro 360.0 66.7 30.6

Tarija 261.9 48.5 22.2

Beni 206.4 38.3 17.6

Pando 35.0 6.5 3.0

Total Bolivia 5,360.7 989.6 455.4

Percent of Total 100 18.5 8.5

Source: Ministry of Education, National Institute of Statistics. Table 1.3: Population Estimates by Sex and Age Group, 1971

(thousands)

Total Male Femaale % Distribution Age Group By Age Group

Total 5,062.5 2,527.6 2,534.9

0-4 822.0 417.0 405.0 ) 5-9 686.5 348.8 337-7 ) 41.6 10-14 598.4 303.3 295.1 )

15-19 526.5 267.9 258.6 ) 20-24 459.2 235.0 224.2 ) 25-29 385.8 194.6 191.2 ) 30-34 318.4 161.7 156.7 ) 35-39 267.3 133.9 133.4 ) 55.0 40-44 228.8 108.7 120.1 ) 45-49 195.4 90.9 104.5 ) 50-54 164.0 75.8 88.2 ) 55-59 133.7 61.0 72.7 ) 60-64 102.3 45.5 56.8 )

65-69 75.9 35.0 40.9 ) 70-74 58.4 28.5 29.9 ) 3.4 75 and over 39.9 20.0 19.9 )

Percentage Distribution of Population by Age Grou) for Selected Years

1960 1965 ]-970 Estimated Age Group $) $) %) 1980 (%)

0-14 42.4 41.9 1a.6 41.6

15-64 54.0 54.6 55.0 54.8

65 and over 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.6

Source: Ministry of Coordination and Planning Table 1.4: REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION AND DENSITY OF THE TOTAL AND RURAL POPULATION, 1972

(Thousands and Percent)

Population Land Densit Total Rural Urban inhab./km '000 %- 10 '000 % Km % Total airal

I. Altiplano 2,295 44.4 1,362 38.6 933 56.6 182,048 16.6 12.61 7.48 a. North ( 927) (17.9) (328) ( 9.3) (599) (36.3) ( 6,221) ( 0.6) (1)48.93) (52.66) b. Central (1,257) (24-3) (954) (27.0) (303) (18.4) ( 94,512) ( 8.6) (13.30) 10.09) c. South ( 112) ( 2.2) ( 81) ( 2.3) ( 31) ( 1.9) ( 81,315) ( 7.4) (1-37) (1.00)

II. Valleys 1,811 35.0 1,386 39.3 425 25.8 143,411 13.1 12.65 9.66 III. Yungas 269 5.2 228 6.5 41 2.5 45,814 4.2 5.86 4.97

IV. Oriente 801 15.5 552 15.7 249 15.1 723,560 66.1 1.11 .76 a. Amazon Rain Forest ( 132) ( 2.6) ( 106) ( 3.0) ( 26) ( 1.6) (184,358) (16.8) 0.72 .58 b. Beni Plain (116) (2.2) ( 87) (2.5) (29) (1.8) (135,848) (12.4) (0.85) (0.64) c. Santa Cruz ( 233) ( 4.5) ( 92) ( 2.6) (141) ( 8.5) ( 30,828) ( 2.8) (7.54) (2.97) d. Brazilian Shield ( 109) ( 2.1) ( 92) ( 2.6) ( 17) ( 1.0) (243,295) (22.2) (0.44) (0.38) e. Bolivian Chaco (213) (4.1) (176) (5-0) ( 37) (2.2) (129,231) (11.8) (1.65) (1-36) TOTAL BOLIVIA 5,176/1 loo 3,528 100 1,648 100 1,094,833 100 4.73 3.22

/1 Total population for 1972 slightly less than the population shown in Table 1.1 (5,194,300). The discrepancy is due to methodological differences in estimating provincial population.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, USAID Sector Report, August 1974, mission estimates. Table 1.5: URBAN ANI) RURAL POPUIATION, ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS, 1950-1980 (Thousands and Percent)

Urban Capital of Cities with % of Urban Total Rural Total Departments Population of to Total ('000) (0OOO) ('000) ('000) More Than 2,000 Population

1950 3019.0 2246.4 772.6 622.8 149.8 25.6

1955 3387.6 2494.4 893.2 707.0 186.2 26.4 1960 3824.6 2784.7 1039.9 804.3 235.6 27.2

1965 4334.0 3120.5 1213.5 917.9 295.6 28.0 1970 4931.2 3486.4 14L4.8 1072.1 372.7 29.3 1971 5062.5 3566.0 11496.5 1108.7 387.8 29.7 1972 5194.3 3645.2 1549.1 1146.7 402.4 29.8 1973 5360.7 3737.2 1623.5 1201.1 422.4 30.3 1974 5470.1 3810.5 1659.6 1228.4 431.2 30.4 1975 5633.8 3909.9 1723.9 1279.2 444.7 30.4 1980 6455.7 4389.9 2065.8 1554.0 511.8 32.0 Average Annual Growth Rates (%)

1950-1960 2.4 2.2 3.0 2.6 4.6 1960-1970 2.6 2.3 3.3 2.9 4.7 1970-1980 2.7 2.3 3.6 3.8 3.2

Source: Ministry of Coordination and Planning Table 1.6: LABOR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT BY ECONOMIC SECTORS, 1970-75 (Thousands)

Estimated 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Labor Force 2,479 2,545 2,612 2,680 2,650 2,829 Employment 2,029 2,123 2,222 2,325 2,439 2.559 Aariculture 1,307 1,361 1,415 1,404 1,442 1,481

Mining 52 55 57 77 84 92

Hydrocarbons 5 5 6 7 8 8

Manufacturing 171 181 192 205 218 232

Construction 48 51 55 59 63 68

Energy 20 21 22 23 26 29 Transport 56 59 61 87 97 108

Commerce and Financial 131 139 148 163 175 187 Intermediation

General Governnment 88 92 96 140 157 175

Ownership of aDellings 151 161 170 160 169 179 and Others

Unemployment 450 422 390 355 311 270

(As Percent of Labor For^e) (18.2) (16.6) (14.9) (13.2) (11.3) (9.5)

1/ Mission Estimates.

Source: Ministry of Planning and Coordination. Table 2.1: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN AT CURRENT PRICES, 1968-75 ($b million)

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974!! 1975!/

GDP at Market Prices 9,147.7 9,755.3 10,627.7 11,254.5 13,239.1 20,778.5 33,723.8 40,213.0

Agriculture 1,921.1 2,010.3 2,146.1 2,315.4 2,866.1 4,452.9 8,502.7 11,144.5

Mining & Quarrying 1,320.0 1,498.0 1,662.0 1,534.1 1,925.8 3,760.5 6,666.2 5,525.6 Mining (951.7) (1,134.5) (1,431.8) (1,182.0) (1,342.5) (2,600.2) (4,459.3) (3,604.2) Hydrocarbon (368.3) (363.5) (230.2) (352.1) (583.3) (1,160.3) (2,206.9) (1,921.4)

Manufacturing 1,145.8 1,191.0 1,279.4 1,361.0 1,489.8 2,093.7 3,194.1 4,241.0 Food (235.3) (251.8) (277.0) (296.5) (319.6) (465.4) (900.2) (1,134.2) Other Consumption Goods (704.0) (723.0) (779.7) (822.9) (903.1) (1,272.6) (1,888.4) (2,612.9) Petroleum Refining (206.5) (216.2) (222.7) (241.6) (267.1) (355.7) (405.5) (493.9)

Construction 383.2 432.6 471.2 513.7 591.0 917.2 1,371.5 1,810.4

Energy 149.7 164.0 174.6 184.6 227.0 307.5 405.7 502.8

Transport & Communication 700.2 755.6 799.7 899.8 1,076.6 2,354.3 2,875.7 3,547.6

Commerce 1,133.0 1,190.8 1,268.0 1,322.8 1,492.4 2,097.8 3,714.6 4,356.2

Banking 134.8 155.2 181.3 207.7 266.2 356.9 621.1 850.8

General Government 796.3 811.5 965.4 1,107.4 1,330.3 1,918.0 3,048.4 4,174.4

Ownership of Dwellings 762.6 802.7 866.3 928.2 1,007.4 1,206.1 1,547.1 1,920.2

Other Services 701.0 743.6 813.7 879.8 966.5 1,313.6 1,776.4 2,139.5

1/ Provisional

Source: Ministry of Coordination and Planning; Central Bank; IBRD Report No. 786a-BO; Mission Estimates. Table 2,2: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN AT CONSTANT PRICES, 1968-76 (1974 $b million)

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 __ 1976

GDP at Market Prices 25,824.8 26,624.4 26,781.8 28,344,3 30,150.4 32,123.2 33,723.8 35,747.0 38,068.0

Agriculture 6,740.7 6,678.7 6,922.9 7,258.3 7,542.4 8,023.2 8,502.7 9,075.3 9,517.0

Mining & Qyarrying 5,587.8 5,892.0 5,220.8 5,835.2 6,381,5 6,732.0 6,666.2 6,360.9 6,677.9 Mining 4,084.5 4,414.4 4,338.8 4,511,5 4,430.7 4,452.4 4,459.3 4,322.7 ... Hydrocarbon Extraction 1,503.3 1,477.6 882.0 1,323.7 1,950.8 2,279.6 2,206.9 2,038.2

Manufacturing 2,501.6 2,549.0 2,679.4 2,773.4 2,840.2 3,007,7 3,194.1 3,560.5 3,921.0 Food 680,1 713,3 748.6 772.1 781.4 843.1 900.2 1,007.3 Other Consumption Goods 1,540.5 1,541.6 1,627.8 1,672.6 1,713.7 1,797.5 1,888.4 2,122.6 Petroleum Refining 281,0 294.1 303.0 328.7 345.1 367.1 405.5 430.6

Construction 992.7 1,086.9 1,124.6 1,170.2 1,228.7 1,284.6 1,371.5 1,556.7 1,690.0

Energy 297.6 312,4 332.6 351.6 367.9 384.4 405.7 436.1 473.7

Transport & Communication 2,083.9 2,202,9 2,185.0 2,386.7 2,563.3 2,709.2 2,875.7 3,120.1 3,337.5

Commerce 2,997.4 3,085.0 3,162.1 3,195.2 3,368.§ 3,519.8 3,714.6 4,071.2 4,377.8

Banking 252,9 280.7 320,9 349.7 417.9 517,2 621.1 738.5 799.4

General Government 1,697.9 1,775,7 1,942.5 2,031,9 2,358,7 2,747,9 3,048.4 3,243.5 3,459.6

Ownership of Dwellings 1,264,7 1,303.1 1,355.7 1,389.5 1,428,9 1,489.0 1,547,4 1,651.1 1,758.4

Other Services 1,407.6 1,458,0 1,535.3 1,602.6 1,652,1 1,708.2 1,776.4 1,932.7 2,055.7

1/ Provisional.

Source: Ministry of Coordination and Planning; Central Bank; IBRD Report No. 786a-BO; Mission Estimates, Table 2.3: IMPLICIT DEFLACTORS OF GDP BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN, 1968-75 (1974= 100)

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

GDP at Market Prices 35.4 36.6 39.7 39.7 43.9 64.7 100.0 113.4

Agriculture 28.5 30.1 31,0 31.9 38.0 55.5 100.0 122.8

Mining and Quarrying 23.6 25,4 31.8 26.3 30.1 55.9 100.0 86.9 Mining 23.3 25.7 33.0 26.2 30.3 58.4 100.0 83.4 Hydrocarbon Extraction 24.5 24,6 26.1 26.6 29,9 50.9 100.0 94.3

Manufacturing 45.8 46.7 47.7 49.1 52.5 69.6 100.0 119o1 Food 34.6 35,3 37,0 38.4 40.9 55.2 100.0 112,6 Other Consumption Goods 45.7 46.9 47,9 49,2 52.7 70.8 100.0 123.1 Petroleum Refining 73.5 73.5 73.5 73.5 77,4 96.9 100,0 114.7

Construction 38.6 39,8 41.9 43.9 48.1 71.4 100.0 116,3

Energy 50.3 52.5 52,5 52,5 61.7 80.0 100.0 115.3

Transport & Communication 33.6 34.3 36.6 37.7 42,0 86.9 100,0 113.7

Commerce 37.8 38.6 40,1 41,4 44.3 59,6 100- 0 107,0

Banking 53.3 55,3 56.5 59.4 63.7 69.0 100.0 115.2

General Government 46,9 45.7 49,7 54.5 56.4 69,8 100.0 128,7

Ownership & Dwellings 60.3 61,6 63,9 66.8 70.5 81,0 100,0 116,3

Other Services 49.8 51,0 53,0 54.9 58.5 76.9 100.0 110.7

Source: Table 2.1; 2,2, 1/ Table 2.4: GROWTH AND COMPOSITION OF GDP BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN , 1968-76 (Percent)

ANNUAL GROWTH COMPOSITION

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 2 1976 2/ 1963-72 1973 1974 1975 1976

GDP at Market Prices 3.1 .6 5.8 6.4 6.5 5.0 6.0 6.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Agriculture -0.9 3.7 4.8 3.9 6.4 6.0 6.7 4.9 25.5 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.0

Mining & Quarrying 5.4 -11.4 11.8 9.4 5.5 -1.0 -4.6 5.0 21.0 21.0 19.8 17.8 17.5 Mining 8.1 -1.7 4.0 -1.8 .5 .2 -3.1 ... 15.8 13.9 13.3 12.1 ... Hydrocarbon Extraction -1.7 -40.3 50.1 47.4 16.9 -3.2 -7.6 ... 5.2 7.1 6.5 5.7 ...

Manufacturing 1.9 5.1 3.5 2.4 5.9 6.2 11.5 10.1 9.7 9.4 9.5 9.9 10.3 Food 4.9 4.9 3.1 1.2 7.9 6.8 11.9 ... 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 ... Other Consumption Goods .1 5.6 2.8 2.5 4.9 5.1 12.4 ... 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.9 ... Petroleum Refining 4.7 3.0 8.5 5.0 6.4 10.5 6.2 ... 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 ...

Construction 9.5 3.5 4.1 5.0 4.5 6.8 13.5 8.6 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.4

Energy 5.0 6.5 5.7 4.6 4.5 5.5 7.5 8.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Transport & Communications 5.7 -.8 9.2 7.4 5.7 6.1 8.5 7.0 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.8

Commerce 2.9 2.5 1.0 5.4 4.5 5.5 9.6 7.5 11.5 11.0 11.0 11.4 11.5

Banking 11.0 14.3 9.0 19.5 23.8 20.1 18.9 8.2 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.1

General Government 4.6 9.4 4.6 16.1 16.5 10.9 6.4 6.7 7.1 8.5 9.0 9.1 9.1

Ownership of Dwellings 3.0 4.0 2.5 2.8 4.2 3.9 6.7 6.5 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7

Other Services 3.6 5.3 4.4 3.1 3.4 4.0 8.8 6.4 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4

1/ In constant 1974 prices.

2/ Provisional.

Source: Table 2.2. Table 2.5: EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES, 1968-76 ($b million)

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 197-51/ 19761!

Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices 9,148 9,755 10,628 11,255 13,239 20,779 33,724 40,537 49,260 Net Factor Income -275 -362 -297 -202 -288 -496 -620 -628 -938 Gross National Product at Market Prices 8,873 9,393 10,331 11,053 12,951 20,283 33,104 39,909 48,322

Exports of Goods & N.F.S. 2,022 2,267 2,498 2,356 2,975 6,202 11,762 10,206 12,022 Imports of Goods & N.F.S. 2,408 2,557 2,503 2,703 3,450 6,648 10,378 13,648 14,170 Resource Balance (-Increase) 386 290 5 347 475 446 -1,384 3,442 2,148

Available Resources 9,534 10,045 10,633 11,602 13,714 21,225 32,340 43,979 51,408

Consumption 7,715 8,217 8,732 9,721 11,351 17,888 26,724 35,067 41,461 Private (6,548) (6,990) (7,381) (8,122) (9,351) (14,927) (21,624) (28,889) (33,299) Public (1,167) (1,227) (1,351) (1,599) (2,000) (2,961) (5,100) ( 6,178) ( 8,162)

Gross Domestic Investment 1,819 1,828 1,901 1,881 2,363 3,337 5,616 8,912 9,947

Fixed Investment 1,753 1,657 1,687 1,824 2,179 3,060 5,143 8,142 9,503 Private (682) (652) (675) (602) (932) (1,205) (1,640) (3,600) (..) Public (1,071) (1,005) (1,012) (1,222) (1,247) (1,855) (3,503) (4,542) (

Changes in Stocks 66 171 214 57 184 277 473 770 444

Gross Domestic Savings 1,433 1,538 1,896 1,534 1,888 2,891 7,000 5,470 7,799 Private (1,090) (1,070) (1,442) (1,157) (1,404) (1,532) (2,810) (2,458) (.) Public (343) (468) (454) (377) (484) (1,359) (4,190) (3,012) (. )

Net Factor Income -275 -362 -297 -202 -288 -496 -620 -628 -938 Net Current Transfers 80 93 46 84 177 308 240 260 280

Gross National Savings 1,238 1,269 1,645 1,416 1,777 2,703 6,620 5,102 7,141

1/ Provisional.

Source: Ministry of Coordination and Planning; Central Bank; IBRD Report No. 786a-BO; Mission Estimates. Table 2.6: EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES, 1968-76 (1974 $b millions)

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1/

Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices 25,825 26,624 26,782 28,344 30,150 32,123 33,724 35,747 38,068 Terms of Trade Effect -2,289 -2,161 -840 -2,002 -2,663 -4,496 __ -1,734 -2,138 Gross Domestic Income 23,536 24,463 25,942 26,342 27,487 27,627 33,724 34,013 35,930

Imports of Goods and NFS 4,578 4,658 4,279 4,460 5,211 8,137 10,378 12,296 11,998 Exports of Goods and NVS 6,133 6,290 5,110 5,890 7,157 12,087 11,762 10,928 12,318 Exports-Terms of Trade Adiusted 3,844 4,129 4,270 3,888 4,494 7,591 11,762 9,194 10,180 Resource Balance ( - surplus) 736 529 9 572 717 546 -1,384 3,102 1,818

Resource Available 24,270 24,992 25,951 26,914 28,204 28,173 32,340 37,115 37,748

Consumption 18,789 19,609 20,676 22,083 22,933 23,703 26,724 29,475 29,928 Investment 5,481 5,383 5,275 4,831 5,271 4,470 5,616 7,640 7,820

Gross Domestic Savings 4,747 4,854 5,266 4,259 4,554 3,924 7,000 4,538 6,002 Net Factor Income -755 -966 -747 -473 -554 -538 -620 -548 -770 Net Current Transfers 228 257 121 205 354 347 240 228 230 Gross National Savings 4,220 4,145 4,640 3,991 4,354 3,733 6,620 4,218 5,462

Gross National Product 25,070 25,658 26,035 27,871 29,596 31,585 33,104 35,199 37,298 Gross National Income 22,781 23,497 25,195 25,869 26,933 27,089 33,104 33,465 35,160

1/ Provisional

Source: Ministry of Coordination and Planning, Central Bank, IBRD Report No. 786a-BO, Mission Estimates Table 2.7: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR, 1968-75 (Current and constant 1974 $b millions)

Estimated 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

CURRENT $b MILLIONS

TOTAL 1,071 1,005 1,012 1,222 1,247 1,855 3,504 4,542

Agriculture and Irrigation 21 25 22 74 47 62 104 264 Mining 262 152 94 97 62 97 346 489 Hydrocarbons 94 212 322 394 423 509 1,377 1,528 Manufacturing 28 29 73 120 52 309 368 379 Energy 17 77 73 88 195 136 107 150 Transport and Communications 423 298 195 201 226 416 687 899 Urbanization and Housing 31 55 48 32 52 69 113 178 Education and Health 29 33 50 31 89 121 191 310 Public Services; Other 166 124 135 185 101 136 211 345

CONSTANT 1974 $b MILLIONS

TOTAL 3,234 2,944 2,770 3,146 2,742 2,503 3,504 4,205

Agriculture and Irrigation 63 73 32 201 105 89 104 244 Mining 810 456 266 253 138 130 346 453 Hydrocarbons 291 635 912 1,030 938 682 1,377 1,416 Manufacturing 87 87 207 313 111 414 368 351 Energy 53 232 207 231 435 184 107 138 Transport and Communications 1,314 899 553 529 504 560 687 832 Urbanization and Housing 85 147 120 79 109 93 113 164 Education and Health 80 89 132 75 192 165 191 288 Public Services; Other 451 326 341 435 210 186 211 319

Source: Ministry of Coordination and Planning; Ministry of Finance; Public Enterprises; Mission Estimates. Table 2.8: SUMMARY GROWTH PROJECTIONS 1977-1985 (Lower Growth Rate) (US$ Million)

National Income Accounts 1 -/ (1974 Prices & Exchange Rates) 19751_ 1976" 1977 1978 1979 1980 1985

Gross Domestic Product 1,787.4 1,903.4 2,002.4 2,106.5 2,216.0 2,331.3 3,032.5 Terms of Trade Adjustment -86.7 -106.9 -106.6 -101.3 -107.7 -117.7 -153.2 Gross Domestic Income 1,700.7 1,796.5 1,895.8 2,005.2 2,108.3 2,213.6 2,879.3

Imports of Goods and NFS 614.8 599.9 627.0 649.1 675.2 702.1 878.8 Exports of Goods and NFS -546.4 -615.9 -633.3 -653.8 -689.8 -728.4 -1,010.9 Exports (As capacity to import) -459.7 -509.0 -526.7 -552.5 -582.1 610.7 857.7 Resource Gap 155.1 90.9 100.3 96.6 93.1 91.4 21.1

Consumption 1,473.8 1,496.4 1,589.1 1,680.8 1,759.0 1,840.0 2,308.3 Investment 382.0 391.0 407.0 421.0 442.4 465.0 592.1 Resources Available 1,855.8 1,887.4 1,996.1 2,101.8 2,201.4 2,305.0 2,900.4

Gross Domestic Savings 226.9 300.1 306.7 324.4 349.3 373.6 571.0 Net Factor Income -27.4 -38.5 -41.7 -47.8 -54.1 -60.5 -90.0 Net Current Transfers 11.4 11.5 7.6 5.6 5.2 4.6 1.7 Gross National Savings 210.9 273.1 272.6 282.2 300.4 317.7 482.7

Gross National Product 1,760.0 1,864.9 1,960.7 2,058.7 2,161.9 2,270.8 2,942.5 Gross National Income 1,673.3 1,758.0 1,854.1 1,957.4 2,054.2 2,153.1 2,789.3

Selected Indicators

Real GDP Growth Rate (%) 6.0 6.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.4 Average Savings Ratio (%) 12.0 14.6 13.9 13.7 13.9 14.0 16.4 ICOR 2.5 3.3 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.4 Import Elasticity 3.1 -0.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9

1/ Provisional

Source: Mission Estimates. Table 2.9: SUMMIARY GROWTH PROJECTIONS 1977-1985 (Higher Growth Rate) (US$ Million)

National Income Accounts 1 / (1974 Prices & Exchange Rates) 1975" 1976" 1977 1978 1979 1980 1985

Gross Domestic Product 1,787.4 1,903.4 2,017.6 2,138.7 2,271.3 2,416.6 3,264.6 Terms of Trade Adjustment -86.7 -106.9 -109.6 -104.3 -110.8 -121.5 -172.9 Gross Domestic Income 1,700.7 1,796.5 1,908.0 2,034.4 2,160.5 2,295.1 3,091.7

Imports of Goods and NFS 614.8 599.9 658.3 705.5 756.9 812.3 985.2 Exports of Goods and NFS -546.4 -615.9 -651.7 -673.2 -710.0 -752.2 -1,140.1 Exports (As capacity to import) -459.7 -509.0 -542.1 -568.9 -599.2 -630.7 -967.2 Resource Gap 155.1 90.9 116.2 136.6 157.7 181.6 18.0

Consumption 1,473.8 1,496.4 1,573.8 1,683.1 1,792.4 1,913.2 2,461.0 Investment 382.0 391.0 450.4 487.9 525.8 563.5 648.7 Resources Available 1,855.8 1,887.4 2,024.2 2,171.0 2,318.0 2,476.7 3,109.7

Gross Domestic Savings 226.9 300.1 334.2 351.3 368.1 381.9 630.7 Net Factor Income -27.4 -38.5 -44.0 -51.8 -62.1 -69.8 -123.1 Net Current Transfers 11.4 11.5 10.0 8.0 8.0 7.5 4.0 Gross National Savings 210.9 273.1 300.2 307.5 314.0 319.6 511.6

Gross National Product 1,760.0 1,864.9 1,973.6 2,086.9 2,209.2 2,346.8 3,141.5 Gross National Income 1,763.3 1,758.0 1,864.0 1,982.6 2,098.4 2,225.3 2,968.6

Selected Indicators

Real GDP Growth Rate (%) 6.0 6.5 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.2 Average Savings Ratio (%) 12.0 14.6 15.2 14.7 14.2 13.6 16.2 ICOR 2.5 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.0 Import Elasticity 3.1 -0.4 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.7

1/ Provisional

Source: Mission Estimates. Table 3.1: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1968-76 (current US$ million)

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1 97 5 -/ 1976-1

Current Account -48.9 -47.1 -21.5 -39.1 -44.3 -31.7 50.2 -190.5 -140.3

Goods (f.o.b.) _4.4 5.2 29.5 0.5 6.5 34.4 163.9 -66.0 3.4 Exports (157.1) (178.6) (195.7) (181.9) (202.2) (283.9) (553.9) (464.0) (544.0) Imports (161.5) (173.4) (166.2) (181.4) (195.7) (249.5) (390.0) (530.0) (540.6) Non-Factor Services -28.1 -29.6 -29.9 -29.7 -42.4 -56.7 -94.7 106.1 110.8 Credit (13.1) (12.2) (14.6) (16.4) (22.5) (26.2) (34.2) (46.3) (57.1) Debit (41.2) (41.8) (44.5) (46.1) (64.9) (82.9) (128.9) (152.4) (167.9) Factor Services (net) -23.1 -30.5 -25.0 -17.0 -21.8 -24.8 -31.0 -31.4 -46.9 Transfers (net) 6.7 7.8 3.9 7.1 13.4 15.4 12.0 13.0 14.0 Private Sector (0.1) (1.2) (1.5) (2.1) (4.9) (4.9) (5.0) (4.1) ((4.2) Public Sector (6.6) (6.6) (2.4) (5.0) (8.5) (10.5) (7.0) (8.9) ((3.8)

Capital Account 52.1 50.5 33.2 51.7 93.0 26.4 68.1 128.5 193.2

Private Capital (net) -0.6 -5.2 -88.5 1.0 -6.7 11.5 5.8 37.8 26.0 Direct Investment 6.5 9.1 -75.91/ 1.9 -13.4 4.6 20.8 53.4 37.0 Other Long-Term -7.1 -18.3 -13.6 11.9 15.1 16.9 13.0 -1.8 -1.0 Drawings (.) (.) (.) (19.8) (17.7) (27.5) (28.0) (16.4) (24.0) Amortization (() ( ) (.) (7.9) (2.6) (10.6) (15.0) (18.2) (25.0) Other Short-Term - 4.0 - -12.8 -8.4 -10.0 -28.0 13.8 -10.0

Public Capital (net) 52.7 55.7 121.711 50.7 99.7 14.9 62.3 90.7 167.2 Medium- and Long-Term Loans (net) 53.9 58.7 122.1 50.1 100.5 15.7 64.3 99.3 186.6 Drawings (64.1) (70.2) (141.3) (70.2) (132.8) (48.6) (118.6) (168.7) (259.6) Amortization (10.2) (11.5) (19.2) (20.1) (32.3) (32.9) (54.3) (69.4) (73.0) Other Public Capital -1.2 -3.0 -0.4 0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -2.0 -8.6 -19.4

Errors and Omissions -6.8 -3.9 -11.0 -22.9 -36.2 -10.1 4.9 7.4 -

SDR Allocations - - 4.9 4.0 4.3 _

Change in Net International Reserves (-increase) 3.6 0.5 -5.6 6.3 -16.8 15.4 -123.8 54.6 -52.9

1/ Includes nationalization of Gulf Oil Company amounting to US$78.6 million.

2/ Provisional.

Source: Central Bank; IMF; and Mission Estimates. Table 3.2: Merchandise Exports. C.I.F. . 1968-76 Page I of 2 (in thousands of US$)

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 - 1976-

Exports in current prices

MineralIs: 138,970 16,6 20,2 17,2 17434 22,91 38,0 312,893 368,700 Tin, concentrated 92,533 102,409 107,032 82,013 88,927 98,667 174,321 129,730 147,900 Tin, metallic 4 68 23 23,865 24,614 32,326 55,493 51,378 74,700 Copper 7,729 1o,957 12,498 8,297 8 ,762 13,440 16,000 7,262 7,000 Lead 5,133 6,844 7,808 5,949 5,776 8,347 11,483 7,356 7,900 Zinc 2,978 7,818 14,319 15,270 15,438 25,963 37,323 39,632 37,300 Tungsten 9,699 11,143 17,568 13,610 10,284 11,128 20,900 22,253 34,100 Silver 11,199 10,848 10,508 8,342 7,590 12,561 26,842 28,511 23,500 Bismuth 1,962 2,805 7,958 5,792 2,646 4,378 12,457 7,528 2,800 Antimony 6,034 10,999 30,978 9,040 9,081 17,353 29,062 17,141 31,000 Cold 26 1,498 169 22 6 2 6 - Sulphur 1,553 1,573 476 310 526 1,155 1,022 709 1,188 Cadmium - - 492 670 1.91 430 983 1,329 1,128 Others 120 204 92 145 93 171 214 64 184 3 Hydrocarbons: 24,26 2301 13. 210 2 ,892~ 415L 66,962 193,115 153,882 16,0 Petroleum, crude 24,262 23,012 13,210 23,892 31,712 48,861 163,929 111,429 114,000 Natural gas - - - - 9,664 18,101 29,186 42,453 55,200 Agricultural products 672 7.585 1023 18.107 25 7.'81 43L.50 63.300 65.278 7350 Sugar 800 800 1,000 1,000 £00 12,400 16,960 21,145 24,700 Cotton 343 317 709 3,791 7,557 9,700 21,970 18,459 12,800 Coffee 2,656 2,901 3,465 3,512 4,700 5,900 4,300 6,775 14,000 Fruits 954 929 1,194 1,236 1,370 1,500 2,100 2,116 - Timber 890 1,190 1,924 2,759 3,765 7,700 12,902 12,669 10,000 Meast - - 48 1,966 2,174 3,100 221 15 - Others 1,149 1,448 1,892 3,1- 5,715 3,200 4,847 4,099 12,000 Other products 2/ 400 415 468 593 3,419 110 5,2 1,971 1,700 Total merchandise exports (cif) - 170,424 198,178 228,812 215,917 244,410 338,283 648,350 534,024 613,100 Balance of payments adjustments -13,324 -19,578 -33,112 -34,017 -42,210 -54,383 -94,450 -70,024 -69,100 Total merchandise exports (FOB) 157,100 178,600 195,700 181,900 202,1200 283,900 553,900 464,000 544,000 Non-factor services 13,100 12,200 14,600 16,400 22,5,00 26,200 34,200 46,300 57,100 Total exports c.n.f.s. 170,200 190,800 210,300 198,300 224,700 310,100 588,100 510,300 601,100 Export indices (1974=100) Minerals: 39.82 43.6.2 55.80 44,30 45.5 58R.76 100.00 86.97 92.14 Tin, concentrated 39.55 43.00 48.32 43.92 46.98 57.55 100.00 86.05 90.51 Tin, metallic 40.23 45.74 46.40 44.51 47.71 59.81 100.00 87,05 96,4C Copper 55.17 67.69 70.06 52.55 51.41 80.80 100.00 60.02 70.0; Lead 38,79 45.70 51.10 43.00 50.76 69.81 100.00 73.86 73.4( Zinc 32.94 38.41 40.10 43.75 50.65 68.23 100.00 105,96 103.4;, Tungsten 52.50 59.31 90.10 63.76 46.22 49.68 100.00 107.82 120.I6 Silver 46.39 3,8.48 37.67 32.34 35.40 50.77 100.00 93,54 92.3- Bismuth 19.06 23.39 71,37 47.80 30.80 42.99 100.00 68.77 63.81 Antimony 24.36 37.57 120.27 34.97 31.06 52.72 100.00 64.54 73.6' Gold 38.94 38.31 38.28 37.96 39.78 60.15 100.00 68,35 59.91 Suilphur 182.33 179.17 120.83 125.00 L20.83 83.33 100.00 137,50 137.5C Cadmium - - 83.31 86.17 85.80 85.82 100.00 95,51 95.51 Others 276.52 188.30 123.56 129.41 [58.90 82.37 100.00 164.74 196.04 Hydrocarbons 14.95 15.09 18.64 1B.64 22.46 31.97 100.00 99.19 109.95 petroleum, crude 14.95 15.09 18.64 1-8.64 19.LO0 27 .21 100.00 T88.60 92.11 Natural gas - - - - 51.97 61.05 100.00 144.45 183.31 Agricultural products 52.04 47.67 59.04 69.67 87.17 63.57 100.00 86.02 83.78 Sugar 23.12 21.01 25.62 27-.22 26.58 35 .0 0 100.00 82 .0 0 -56 .41C Cotton 122.56 60.41 70.38 135.73 [52.75 95.59 100.00 84.85 L05.7C Coffee 84.86 84.84 87.95 83.99 84.95 122.18 100.00 100.00 172.2C Fruits 45.60 38.57 57.56 75.86 70.33 66.61 100.00 80.66 - Timber 47.27 43.88 64.16 58.64 56.58 110.11 100.00 89.41 98.86 Meat - - 23.89 56.35 65.13 82,90 100.00 97.11 - Others 52.04 47.67 59.04 69.67 87.17 63.57 100.00 86.02 88.36 Other products 41.73 45.32 46.76 43.88 48.20 71.94 100.00 84.17 89.7C Total merchandise exports (cif) 324 58 91 94 05 08 0.0 9.6 95.25 Balance of payments adjustments 39.82 43.62 55.80 44.30 45.56 58.76 100.00 86.97 92.14 Total merchandise (FOB) 31.93 35.19 48.20 38.70 39.79 49.60 100.00 91.71 95.66 Non-factor services 53.99 56.04 60.07 63.93 69.52 82.17 100.00 114.40 121.91 Total exports and n.f.s. 32.97 36.04 48.88 40.00 41.57 51.31 100.00 933 97.66 P1gag2 of 2

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 197511__1~976

Exports in constant 1974 prices 4 Minerals 3,48.981 383.237 376L21 391,278 381223 384,466 386 106 359,777 400,161 Tin, concentrated 234,037 238,438 221,319 186,719 189,241 171,447 T-431 150,756 163,425 Tin, metallic 8 150 47 53,640 51,585 54,049 55,493 59,016 77,490 Copper 14,006 16,192 17,831 15,782 17,037 16,633 16,000 12,104 9,990 Lead 13,239 14,974 15,273 13,839 11,378 11,951 11,483 9,960 10,763 Zinc 9,051 20,368 35,748 34,876 30,491 38,068 37,323 37,403 36,049 Tungsten 18,472 18,787 19,499 21,344 22,250 22,396 20,900 20,640 28,374 Siliver 24,143 28,191 27,892 25,792 21,444 24,742 26,842 30,441 25,441 Bism,uth 10,291 11,992 11,150 12,117 8,591 10,184 12,457 10,954 4,288 Antimony 24,775 29,257 25,757 25,970 29,256 32,930 29,062 26,556 42,102 Gold 66 3,911 442 57 14 3 6 - - Sulphur 850 869 392 252 437 1,353 1,022 514 864 Cadmium - - 590 778 456 501 983 1,394 1,181 Others 43 108 74 112 59 208 214 39 94 Hydrocarbons 162,487 152,407 70_76 128.225 185.125 209.441 193,113 1L4824 153,894 Petroleum, crude 162,487 152,407 70,769 128,225 166,145 179,792 163,929 125,736 123,779 Natural Gas - - - - 18,988 29,649 29,186 22,699 30,115 Agricultural ptoducts 13,051 15,911 17J331 25,989 291001 68.432 63.300 75,89 87.727 Sugar 3,460 3,808 3,984 3,673 1,505 35,437 16,960 25,786 43,794 Cotton 279 525 1,008 2,793 4,947 10,147 21,970 21,755 12,110 Coffee 3,130 3,420 3,939 4,181 5,533 4,828 4,300 6,775 8,130 Fruits 2,091 2,408 2,075 1,630 1,948 2,252 2,100 2,623 - Timber 1,883 2,712 2,999 4,707 5,594 6,992 12,902 14,170 10,115 Meat - - 201 3,489 3,492 3,740 221 15 - Others 2,208 3,038 3,205 5,516 5,982 5,034 4,847 4,765 13,578 Other products 2/ 958 916 LflQA 1,351 7.093 2J,641 5,829 2,32 189 Total merchandise product (cif)- 525,477 552,471 465,315 546,843 683,458 664,980 648,350 586,443 643,677 Balanc.e of payment adjootr,ent -33,460 -44,883 -59,340 -76,788 -95,282 -92,551 -94,450 -80,515 -74,995 Total merchandise exports (fob) 492,017 507,588 405,975 470,055 508,176 372,429 553,900 505,928 568,682 Non-factor serviceo 24,264 21,770 24,305 25,653 32,365 31,885 34,200 40,472 46,842 Total Exports 6 n.f.s. 516,281 529,358 430,280 495,708 540,541 604,314 588,100 546,400 605,524

Mem,o: Volume: Minerals (metrictes-) Tie, concentrated 29,409 29,962 27,836 23,463 23,780 21,544 21,905 18,944 20,500 Tin, metallic 1 19 6 6,814 6,553 6,866 7,046 7,497 9,500 Copper 6,930 8,012 8,823 7,809 8,430 8,230 7,917 5,989 4,000 Lead 22,526 25,252 25,756 23,337 19,188 20,153 19,353 16,796 16,000 Zinc 11,785 26,521 46,547 45,412 39,702 49,568 48,600 48,702 42,000 Tungatan 2,283 2,322 2,410 2,638 2,750 2,768 2,583 2,551 3,606 Silver 161 180t 186 172 143 165 179 203 160 B.a.mth 575 670 623 677 480 560 696 612 185 Amtimomy 11,135 13,149 11,576 11,672 13,149 14,800 13.060 11,786 15,505 Gold (kg) 23 1,371 155 20 5 1 2 - - Sulphur 35,429 36,219 16,313 10,487 18,214 56,393 41,769 21,423.. Cadmium - - 66 87 51 56 110 156..

Agriculture: (metric tens) Sgagr 6,230 6,856 7,030 6,613 2,710 63,804 30,536 46,432 76,000 Cotton 613 1,153 2,211 6,129 10,856 22,266 48,212 47,735 11,100 Coffee 2,677 2,925 3,369 3,576 4,732 4,130 3,678 5,795 4,842 Fruits 6,812 7,845 6,759 5,308 6,344 7,338 6,840 8,546 - Timber 12,519 10,034 19,937 31,298 37,193 46,495 85,784 94,193 .. Meat - - 150 2,605 2,607 2,792 165 12 -

Rjjdrocrbonms: Petroleum, crude (000 barrels) 10,704 10,040 4,662 8,447 10,945 11,844 10,798 8,283 8,014 Natural gas (ft e)- 35,497 55,450 54,585 54,966 55,300

Prices (US$/.1t.) Minerals Tim, concentrated 3,147 3,420 3,845 3,495 3,739 4,580 7,958 6,848 7,215 Tin, metallic 3,167 3,601 3,651 2,504 3,756 4,708 7,872 6,853 7,863 Copper 1,115 1,368 1,416 1,062 1,039 1,633 2,021 1,213 1,750 Lead 230 271 303 255 301 414 593 438 494 Zinc 253 295 308 356 389 524 768 814 $888 Tungsten 4,248 4,799 7,290 5,159 3,740 4,02i 8,091 8,724 9,456 Silver 69,559 57,702 56,495 48,500 53,077 76,127 149,955 140,269 146,875 Bisesth 3,412 4.187 12,774 8,555 5,513 7,694 17,898 12,309 15,135 Antimomy, conce-trated 542 836 2,676 778 691 1,173 2,225 1,436 1,603 Antimony, metallic ------1,630 2,095 Gold (01$/kg) 1,111 1,093 1,092 1,083 1,135 1,716 2,853 1,950.. Sulphur 44 43 29 30 29 20 24 33.. Cadmium - - 7,447 7,703 7,670 7,671 8,939 8,538..

Agricultural prodacts Sugar 128.4 116.7 142.3 151.2 147.6 194.4 555.4 45. 325 Cottom 558.5 275.3 320.7 618.5 696.1 435.6 455.7 386.7 514.7 Coffee 992.2 992.0 1,028.3 982.0 993.2 1,428.6 1,169.2 1,169.2 2,891 Fraits 140.0 118,4 176.7 232.9 215.9 204,5 307.0 247.6 .. Timber 71.1 66.0 96.5 88.2 85.1 165.6 150.4 134.5 .. Meat - - 320.0 754.7 872,3 1,110.3 1,339.4 1,294.0 ..

Hydraca.rbons: Petroluem, crude (UlS/barrel) 2.27 2.29 2.83 2.83 2.90 4.13 15.18 13.45 14.23 Natural gas (00$/ft )--- -0.28 0,33 0.53 0,77 0.99

I/ Provisinl.. 2/ Includsng transport conic and s..eltingfees for minerals abroad

Note: there are discrepancies due to rounding.

Sources- Central Bank: Ministry of Minee; Mimistry at Agriculture, and miss-on estimates. 1/ Table 3.3: MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (F.O.B), - 1969-76 (US$ million)

Provisionals 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

Imports in Current Prices Consumer Goods 29.0 28.9 38.2 42.8 56.4 73.0 117.1 116.9 Food (14.2) (15.0) (18.4) (20.1) (27.7) (40.0) (55.1) (56.2) Other Consumer Goods (14.8) (13.9) (19.8) (22.7) (28.7) (33.0) (62.0) (60.7) Raw Materials & Int. Goods 42.0 51.4 45.8 42.3 56.3 94.6 165.9 160.4 Fuel 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.8 5.0 6.9 7.3 Capital Goods & Others 72.4 57.8 62.5 72.7 99.8 181.0 195.6 216.0 Other Goods 29.0 27.1 33.8 36.6 35.2 36.4 44.5 40.0 Total Merchandise Imports 173.4 166.2 181.4 195.7 249.5 390.0 530.0 540.6 Non-Factor Services 41.8 44.5 46.1 64.9 82.9 123.9 152.4 167.9 Total Imports & N.F.S. 215.2 210.7 227.5 260.6 332.4 518.9 682.4 708.5

Import Price Indices (1974 = 100) Food 47 53 50 54 74 100 83.6 86.6 Other Consumer Goods 52 55 51 54 80 100 111.9 119.1 Raw Materials & Int. Goods 53.4 57.0 59.8 63.5 77.4 100 111.9 119.1 Fuels 53.4 57.0 59.8 63.5 77.4 100 111.9 119.1 Capital Goods 58.2 62.3 67.1 74.3 86.2 100 117.1 124.8 Other Goods 55.8 59.6 63.3 68.9 81.7 100 114.5 121.9 Non-Factor Services 55.8 59.6 63.3 68.9 81.7 100 114.5 121.9 Total Imports of Goods & N.F.S. 55.1 58.8 60.9 66.3 81.3 100 111.0 118.1

Imports in Constant Prices (1974 = 100) Consumer Goods 58.7 53.6 75.6 79.2 73.3 73.0 121.3 115.9 Food (30.2) (28.3) (36.8) (37.2) (37.4) (40.0) (65.9) (64.9) Other Consumer Goods (28.5) (25.3) (38.8) (42.0) (35.9) (33.0) (55.4) (51.0) Raw Materials & Int. Goods 78.7 90.2 76.6 66.6 72.7 94.6 148.3 134.7 Fuels 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 5.0 6.2 5.8 Capital Goods 124.4 92.8 93.1 97.8 115.8 181.0 167.0 173.1 Other Goods 52.0 45.5 53.4 53.1 43.1 36.4 38.9 32.8 Total Merchandise Imports 315.7 283.9 300.5 298.7 307.2 390.0 481.7 462.3 Non-Factor Services 74.9 74.7 72.8 94.2 101.5 128.9 133.1 137.7 Total Imports & N.F.S. 390.6 358.6 373.3 392.9 408.7 518.9 614.8 600.0

1/ Merchandise imports including smuggling.

Source: National Institute of Statistics, Central Bank; Mission Estimates. Table 3.4: DIRECTION OF TRADE, 1970-1975 (Percent)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

EXPORTS 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Latin American Free Trade Association 8.4 18.7 25.9 32.9 34.2 38.5 Argentina (5.1) (7.3) (13.5) (13.5) (16.4) (19.5) Brazil (0.5) (1.8) (4.4) (8.2) (7.5) 7.0 Andean Common Market (2.6) (9.4) (7.9) (9.8) (9.0) o/w: Chile (0.4) (2.6) (3.8) (4.8) (6.0) 6.0 Peru (2.2) (6.7) (3.5) (4.4) (2.7) 1.9 Other (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (1.4) (1.3) ( )

European Common Marketi/ 7.3 6.4 8.5 16.4 16.6 8.0 Germany (F.D.R.) (2.4) (2.9) (4.1) (6.2) (5.3) (3.2) France (0.1) (0.1) (3.6) (4.9) (5.0) (0.5) Netherlands (2.5) (1.2) (1.7) (0.4) (0.5) (2.1) Other (2.3) (1.8) (0.9) (4.9) (5.8) (2.2) United Kindgom 38.1 27.9 25.5 20.6 5.9 11.0 U.S.A. 34.8 32.1 27.1 17.7 29.5 30.0 Japan 9.6 7.9 5.4 8.6 9.0 3.9 Other 1.8 7.0 7.6 3.8 4.8 8.6

IMPORTS 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Latin American Free Trade Association 17.3 18.3 28.2 39.7 32.6 33.6 Argentina (10.6) (10.4) (15.8) (16.8) (15.4) (17.1) Brazil (2.3) (4.0) (7.5) (19.0) (15.2) ( ) Andean Common Market (4.0) (3.7) (4.3) (3.7) (1.8) ( o/w: Chile (1.4) (1.4) (1.1) (0.4) (0.6) (.,, Peru (1.2) (1.4) (1.6) (1.7) (0.9) (0.9) Other 1/ (0.4) (0.3) (0.6) (0.2) (0.2) (.) European Common Market- 19.2 20.0 17.3 13.1 14.1 12.4 Germany (F.D.R.) (10.7) (13.0) (10.5) (7.1) (8.5) (5.5) France (1.4) (1.4) (0.9) (0.8) (1.3) (2.1) Netherlands (5.3) (3.4) (3.1) (2.7) (2.5) (0.9) Other (1.8) (2.4) (2.8) (2.5) (1.8) (3.9) United Kingdom 4.9 5.5 3.9 2.7 2.5 3.0 U.S.A 34.0 30.5 25.3 22.0 26.3 24.3 Japan 12.3 11.5 11.4 9.3 13.9 15.7 Other 12.3 14.1 13.9 13.2 10.6 11.0

1/ Excludes U.K., Denmark and Ireland.

Source: IMF; Mission Estimates Table 3.5: TERMS OF TRADE, 1968-75

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Exports

Quantum Index 88.8 91.6 73.3 84.9 91.7 103.3 100.0 91.3 102.7 Price Index 33.0 36.0 48.9 40.0 41.6 51.3 100.0 93.4 97.6

Imports

Quantum Index 82.0 80.9 72.8 77.1 76.6 78.8 100.0 123.5 118.5 Price Index 52.6 55.1 58.8 60.9 66.3 81.3 100.0 111.0 118.1

Terms of Trade 62.7 65.3 83.2 65.7 62.7 81.7 100.0 84.1 82.6

Source: Central Bank; IMF; Mission estimates. Table 3.6: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, PROJECTED 1977-1985 (Lower Growth Rate) (Current US$ Millions)

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1985

Exports of Goods and NFS 510.3 601.1 673.2 760.8 860.4 966.1 15903.8 Imports of Goods and NFS 682.4 708.5 801.4 893.6 997.8 1,110.4 1,951.3 Resource Balance -172.1 -107.4 -128.2 -132.8 -137.4 -144.3 -47.5

Net Factor Income -31.4 -46.9 -55.1 -68.3 -83.1 -99.4 -207.2 Net Transfers 13.0 14.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 7.5 4.0

Current Account Balance -190.5 -140.3 -173.3 -193.1 -212.5 -236.2 -250.7 Private Capital Net 1/ 53.4 37.0 30.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 40.0 Medium and Long-Term Loans to Public Sector (Net) 99.3 186.6 166.8 184.8 213.8 226.7 286.7 Drawings (168.7) (259.6) (256.6) (288.0) (325.8) (373.8) (518.3) Amortizations (-69.4) (-73.0) (-89.8) (-103.2) (-112.0) (-147.1) (-231.6) Other Capital (Net) -16.8 -30.4 4.8 3.2 1.9 0.4 0.0

International Reserves (Net) (Increase = - ) 54.6 -52.9 -28.3 -24.9 -38.2 -30.9 -76.0

1/ Direct Foreign Investment

Source: Mission Estimates. Table 3.7: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, PROJECTED 1977-1985 (Higher Growth Rate) (Current US$ Million)

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1985

Exports of Goods and NFS 510.3 601.1 692.8 783.4 885.6 997.7 2,147.1 Imports of Goods and NFS 682.4 708.5 843.3 974.8 1,124.0 1,292.0 2,195.3 Resource Balance -172.1 -107.4 -150.5 -191.4 -238.4 -294.3 -48.2

Net Factor Income -31.4 -46.9 -58.2 -74.0 -95.3 -114.7 -283.5 Net Transfers 13.0 14.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 7.5 4.0

Current Account Balance -190.5 -140.3 -198.7 -257.4 -325.7 -401.5 -327.7

Private Capital (Net)l/ 53.4 37.0 42.0 59.0 81.7 129.5 100.0 Medium and Long-Term Loans to Public Sector (Net) 99.3 186.6 179.9 221.9 254.2 291.7 304.7 Drawings (168.7) (259.6) (275.5) (335.3) (386.5) (457.1) (631.8) Amortizations/r_ (-6.4) (730) (-9.6~ (=q113.4) (=132.3 (-165-4)A (-327 .1)N Other Capital (Net) -16.8 -30.4 17.8 18.8 30.9 20.4 0.0

International Reserves (Net) (Increases = -) 54.6 -52.9 -41.0 -42.3 -41.1 -40.1 -77.0

l/ Direct Foreign Investment

Source: Mission Estimates. Table 4.1: SERVICE ON EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT, 1968-76

(US$ million and percent)

1/ l 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975-= 1976"

Net Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services 151.6 166.0 193.5 190.7 216.3 303.3 576.6 502.7 592.6

Export of Goods and Non-Factor Services (170.2) (190.8) (210.3) (198.3) (224.7) (310.1) (588.1) (510.3) (601.1)

Investment Income Abroad (18.6) (24.8) (16.8) (7.6) (8.4) (6.8) (11.5) (7.6) (8.5)

Service on External Public Debt 14.7 17.2 27.4 29.5 45.6 50.9 73.8 93.2 111.4

Interest (4.5) (5.7) (8.2) (9.4) (13.4) (18.0) (19.5) (23.8) (38.4)

Amortization (10.2) (11.5) (19.2) (20.1) (32.2) (32.9) (54.3) (69.4) (73.0)

Public Debt Service Ratio 2/ 9.7 10.4 14.2 15.5 21.1 16.8 12.8 18.5 18.8

1/ Provisional

2/ As percent of exports of goods and non-factor services net of investment income abroad.

Source: Central Bank; IMF; IBRD Economic and Social Data Division Page 1 of 2

Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING AS OF DECEMBER 31. 1975

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(In Thousands of U.S. Dollars)

1975 1976 1/

Disbursed Undisbursed Total Disbursed Undisbursed Total

SUPPLIERS CREDITS 60.556 37,678 98,234 66,362 42,945 109,307

Argentina 5,702 2,029 7,731 6,315 492 6,807 Belgium 3,540 1,319 4,859 4,282 391 4,673 Brazil 4,242 476 4,718 4,381 17,411 21,792 Canada 3,402 -- 3,402 2,283 -- 2,283 Chile 2,058 -- 2,058 ------Denmark 2,788 2,812 5,600 3,917 1,654 5,571 France 5,742 -- 5,742 4,070 -- 4,070 Germany (F.D.R.) 1,554 8,822 10,376 6,148 5,103 11,251 Israel 5,484 -- 5,484 4,387 -- 4,387 Italy 4,027 10,013 14,040 10,937 -- 10,937 Japan 8,155 10,780 18,935 10,251 9,867 20,118 Mexico 1,247 -- 1,247 1,247 -- 1,247 Peru 909 -- 909 -- -- South Africa 2,569 1,297 3,866 3,299 -- 3,299 Spain 3,687 -- 3,687 1,165 -- 1,165 Sweden 14 -- 14 -- 625 625 Switzerland 71 -- 71 38 -- 38 United Kingdom 776 130 906 633 7,402 8,035 USA 4,589 -- 4,589 3,009 -- 3,009

PRIVATE BANKS 114.810 49,392 164.202 243,293 100,963 344,256

Argentina 204 -- 204 179 -- 179 Austria 437 -- 437 379 -- 379 Brazil 22,685 2,498 25,183 21,517 2,792 24,309 Canada ------30,000 -- 30,000 France 5,327 562 5,889 4,667 2,366 7,033 Germany (F.D.R.) 11,005 705 11,710 10,982 -- 10,982 Panama 887 -- 887 634 -- 634 Switzerland 2,974 15,627 18,601 14,460 14,939 19,399 United Kingdom ------17,916 17,916 USA 71,291 30,000 101,291 160,475 72,950 233,425

PUBLICLY ISSUED BONDS 58,033 58.033 56,982 56,982

USA 58,033 -- 58,033 56,982 -- 56,982

NATIONALIZATION 49,104 49,104 43,419 43,419

USA 49,104 -- 49,104 43,419 -- 43,419 Page 2 of 2

1975 1976 1/

Disbursed Undisbursed Total Disbursed Undisbursed Total

OTHER PRIVATE DEBT 284-- Z8,419 22,028 -- 22028

Spain 935 -- 935 468 - 468 Switzerland 574 -- 574 535 __ 535 USA 20,660 -- 20,660 17,900 -- 17,900 Multiple Lenders 6,250 -- 6,250 3,125 -- 3,125

LOANS FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS 104,484 165,389 269,873 146,411 232,592 379,003

Corp. Andina Fomento 3,104 37,862 40,966 12,565 33,599 46,164 IBRD 20,936 31,174 52,110 27,272 92,053 119,325 IDA 49,494 15,325 64,819 53,202 11,436 64,638 IDB 30,950 81,028 111,978 53,372 95,504 148,876

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS 364,527 170,272 534,799 435,820 117,669 553,489

Argentina 77,499 -- 77,499 75,157 -- 75,157 Brazil 14,790 60,000 74,790 49,832 22,200 72,032 Canada 1,689 -- 1,689 1,701 -- 1,701 Czechoslovakia 7,353 -- 7,353 6,528 -- 6,528 Denmark 2,071 1,167 3,238 2,729 726 3,455 Germany (F.D.R.) 19,661 17,673 37,334 28,168 18,386 46,554 Hungary 626 -- 626 548 -- 548 Japan -- 12,059 12,059 3,770 10,796 12,566 Peru 400 -- 400 353 -- 353 Poland 105 4,406 4,511 3,986 -- 3,986 Spain 662 117 779 659 -- 659 Switzerland 1 923 924 297 690 987 United Kingdom 6,603 1,017 7,620 6,080 -- 6,080 USA 219,007 70,330 289,337 243,430 64,072 307,502 USSR 12,060 2,580 14,640 12,582 799 13,381 Venezuela 2,000 -- 2,000 -- 2,000 2,000

TOTAL 779,933 422,731 1,202,664 1,014,315 494,169 1,508,484

1/ Estimated

Source: IBRD, External Debt Division, Economic Analysis and Projection Department, February 7, 1977. PROVISIONAL 02/05/77 5 :5h PI4 PAGE 1 of 28 Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF FX7rRNAL P11BLIC DOET

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DE,3T OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNQ!SBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1903 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYAELE IN F'IOEIGN CURRENCY AN!' GOCDS (IN TH9USANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS ) TOTAL YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANOING AT : r R A N S A C T I N S 0 U R I N G P ' P I 0 0 OTHCER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD :

: DISBURSED: INlCLUDING COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C F P A v MN N T S CANCFL- : ADJUST- : ONLY :UNDI SBURSED: MENTS : MENTS …------:-…------: LAT IONS : M.ENT : PRINCIPAL: INTEFEST TOTAL : (12 : (2) (3) (4) : (5) : 6) : 7) (8) : (9)

19b9 313,473 385,842 67,642 55,343 9,354 3,483 12,834 112 2,02. 1970 360,355 466,040 102,868 54,294 16,706 6,374 23,080 3,898 447 1911 476,953 548,751 89,301 o3,572 16,859 7,340 24,199 152 2,3'1- 197? 525,367 623,352 l56,117 122,469 28,493 11,510 39,913 5,987 IJ16 1973 616,641 741,833 6Z,S47 37,009 30,270 15,829 46,099 19,644 6,973 1974 630,792 767,859 172,i390 108057 50,b35 17,252 67,887 6,116 5,901 1975 691,656 889,439 381,974 152,049 56,410 23,572 79,982 S06 -11,433 1976 779,933 1,202,664 373,762 303,365 67,055 35,269 102,324 - -887 197T 1,014,315 1,508,484

* * w- * * THE FOLLOWING FIGUR,S ARE PPCOJ,CTED * * * * *

1977 1,014,315 1,508,484 - 2J7,264 76,935 47,456 124,391 - 2 1978 1,144,643 1,431,55t - 105,086 11c,262 54,344 164,600 - 7 1979 1,139,474 1,321,29b - 73,730 129,146 52,513 181,659 - -1 190l0 1,0O3',059 1,192,149 - 47,298 134,541 46,791 181,332 - 8 Isgl c,96,826 1,057,616 - 32,684 114,825 40039 154,864 - -5 1982 914,679 942,786 _ 15,299 72,978 34,6?1 107,599 _ 7 1983 857,007 869,el5 - 6,438 60,92° 31 ,16'~ 92,098 - 1 1954 002,5117 aCj80b6,7 - 4,330 52,877 28,427 81,264 - 3 1985 754,013 75c,053 - 2,040 53,H74 26,60? 83,477 - - 1986 7T2,177 702,177 - - 5C,219 24,367 74,506 - 5 1987 651,963 651,963 - - 46,681 22,320 69,001 - - 1988 605,278 609,278 - - 40,243 20,334 6SC,577 - 1989 565,035 565,035 - - 3P, 83 18,539 57,222 - 3 1990 526,355 526,355 - - 37,2t2 16,792 54,0i4 - - 1991 4t9,090 4869,09D - - 34, 023 15,383 4*,103 - I 1992 455,068 455,06b - - 28,367 13,701 42,063 - -3 1993 426,o98 426,698 - - 63,325 12,109 75,434 - -4 199'. 363,369 363,369 - - 25,158 10,604 35,762 - -1 1995 338,210 338,210 - - 24,502 9,668 34,170 - -4 1996 '7A13,704 - - 23,440 8,765 32,ZJ5 - 1

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARIWH t.TIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMC.UNIT _J. TTNL,ING I LL*.UjUIG U'JDI SBURSFO FROM ONE YEAR TO T,tE NEXT. THE Mr3ST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARF CHANGES IN FXCHANCG RATES AID TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ON. CATEG,IQY TC ANOTHER IN THE TAeLf. RROVISIONAL 02 /05/77 5:56 PM PAC"' 2 of 28 Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYM.-NTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISPURSED AS OF OFC. 31, 1976

NCLUDES GNLY DEBT CCMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 OEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS TOTAL YEAR 2 DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D : OTHER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD :

DISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C F P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- 2 ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MFNTS M:ENTS : ---:------:------: LATIONS : MENT e : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL : (1) 2 (3) (4) : 5) : (6) : 71 (3)3 : (9)

1969 37,281 50,403 11,532 11,251 3,181 1,020 4'201 42 77 1970 45,617 58,789 5,644 9,504 6,928 1,892 8.820 - 4 1971 48,277 57,589 3,947 7,268 4,528 1,176 5t704 52 -11,455 1972 39,777 45,501 40,154 10,765 6,321 1,177 7,498 313 -1,671 1973 42,611 77,350 16,624 5,463 6,341 1,562 1t,903 18,500 I,lOI 1974 42,814 70,234 13t775 11,632 11,006 2,634 13,640 38 -300 1975 43,215 72,665 39,709 29,340 10,534 2,601 13,135 323 -.,283 1976 60,556 98,234 30,041 23,846 15,383 4,483 19,866 - -3,585 1977 66,362 109,307

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 66,362 109,307 - 22,210 16,011 5,351 21,362 - 4 1978 72,566 93,300 - 12,480 16,611 5,793 22,404 - 4 1979 68,440 76,693 - 6,283 15,181 5,175 20,356 - 1 1980 59,543 61,513 - 1,970 15,948 4,261 20,209 - 2 1931 45,567 45,567 - - 13,239 3,160 16,3Q8 - ? 1982 32,331 32,331 - - 9,011 2,268 11,279 - 4- 1983 23,324 23,324 - 7,110 1,609 8,719 - - 1904 16,214 16,214 - - 4,940 1,072 6,012 - - 1985 11,274 11,274 - - 4,020 719 4,739 - -1 1986 7,253 7,253 - - 2,913 414 3,327 - -1 1987 4,339 49339 - - 1,443 235 1,678 - -1 1988 2,695 2,895 - - 1,443 136 19579 - - 1989 1,452 1,452 - - 677 52 729 - -1 1990 774 774 - - 382 10 392 - -1 1991 391 391 - - 87 - q7 - 1 1992 305 305 - - 87 - 87 - -1 1993 217 217 - - 87 687 - - 1994 130 130 - - 87 - 87 - - 1995 43 43 - - 44 - 44 - I

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMGUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL C2Z0s1 IT 5:56 PM PAGE 3 of 28 Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR PRIVATE BANK CREDITS TOTAL YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD : _ _ ……………__…-__ _ _ ------: DISBURSEO : INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- 2 ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS :------:------LATIONS : MENT * :PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL : (1) : {(2) (3) : (4) : (5) : (6) : (7) (8) : (9)

1969 2,115 3,023 1,264 1,393 1,000 55 1,055 - -1 1970 2,507 3,286 - 16 1,018 72 1,090 - - 1971 1,505 2,268 17,330 11,281 2,718 130 2,848 - - 1972 10,068 16,880 23,062 21,786 9,362 531 9,B93 1,219 - 1973 22,492 29,361 9,877 8,608 3,274 1,617 4,891 - -b6 1974 27,806 35,898 56,367 43,453 5,5)5 2,171 7,766 - 74° 1975 65,937 87,419 89,274 60,963 11,313 7,468 18,781 110 -1,068 1976 114,810 164,202 1S7,898 145,945 18,071 12,833 30.904 - 227 1977 243,293 344,256

* A * * A * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * A * * * *

1977 243,293 344,256 - 81,751 24,362 19,938 44,300 - -1 1978 300,679 319,693 - 12,690 61,665 23,143 84,808 - 4 1979 251,707 25e,232 - 5,352 76,299 19,752 96,051 - 1 1980 180,761 181,934 - 1,173 78,667 13,702 92,369 - 2 1981 103,269 103,269 - - 60,879 7,222 68,l01 - -2 1982 42,388 42,388 - - 21,661 3,089 24,750 - 2 1983 20,729 20,7Z9 - - ii,863 1,404 i3,267 - Z 1984 8,868 8,868 - - 4,106 587 4',693 - 1 1985 4,763 4,763 - - 3,739 283 4,022 - 2 1986 1,026 1,026 - 1,026 41 1,067 - -

FROM ONE * THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOtlNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSFD YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM, ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL 02 /05/77 5:56 PM Table 43 - SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC OE8T PAGE 4 of 28 PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSEO AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR PUBLICLY ISSUED BONDS TOTAL YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D : OTHER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOU : ______------…__------DDISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS :------:------:------: LATIONS MENT * : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL 1) : (2) (31 : (4) : (5) : (6) : (7) (8) s (9) 1969 67,363 67,363 ------1973 67,363 67,363 - - 310 924 1,234 - 310 1971 67,363 67,363 - - 582 1,843 2,425 - 309 1972 67,390 67,090 - - 583 1,857 2,440 - -3,200 1973 63,307 63,307 - - 582 1,857 2,439 - -726 1974 61,999 61,999 - - 892 1,858 2,750 - -871 1975 60,236 60,236 - - 1,C84 1,547 2,631 - -1,119 1976 58,033 58,033 - - 1,051 1,607 2,658 - - 1977 56,982 56,982

- * * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * t *

1977 56,982 56,982 - - 1,067 1,583 2,650 - - 1978 55,915 55,915 - - 1,083 1,559 2,642 - 1 1979 54,833 54,833 - - 1,099 1,534 2,633 - I 1980 53,735 53,735 - - 1,115 1,509 2,624 - -1 1981 52,619 52,619 - - 1,132 1,484 2,616 - - 1982 51,487 51,487 - - 1,149 1,458 2,607 - - 1983 50,338 50,338 - - 1,167 1,431 2,598 - I 1984 49,172 49,172 - - 1,185 1,404 2,589 - - 1985 47,987 47,987 - - 1,233 1,377 2.580 - - 1986 46,784 46,784 - - 1,222 1,348 2,570 - 1 1987 45,563 45,563 - - 1,241 1,320 2,561 - - 1988 44,322 44,322 - - 1,260 1,290 2,550 - 1 1989 43,063 43,063 - - 1,200 1,260 2.540 - - 1990 41,783 41,783 - - 1,300 1,230 2,530 - I 1991 40,484 40,484 - - 1,047 1,199 2,246 - -1 1992 39,436 39,436 - - 1,068 1,167 2,235 - - 1993 38,368 38,368 - - 38,368 576 38,944 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT CF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANOING INCLUDING UNDIS8URSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THF MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. EROV-ISIONAL 02/35/77 5:56 PM PAGE 5 of 28 Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSrANOING AMOUNTS OF EXTEPNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEsT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSEO AS OF DEC. 31. 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOOOS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR NATIONALIZATION TOTAL YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N s A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D : OTHEP CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD : ______------_- - _ _ - _ - -_- _- - _ -_------_------__- - _-- _ _------______-_ _- -_-- DISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V t C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- s ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS …______:__:------LATIONS : MENT * : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST TOTAL : :(s1) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) : (B1 : (9)

1969 - - - - _ _ - 1970 - - - 78,622 - - - - - 1971 - 78,622 76,622 - - 662 150 812 - 11,735 1972 s9,695 89,695 - - 3,602 - 3,602 - 1973 86,093 86,093 736 - 9,255 1,040 10.295 - 1974 77,574 77,574 - - 16,337 65 16,072 - 1975 61,567 61,567 - - 12,048 - 12,048 415 1976 49,104 49,104 - - 5,685 4 5,609 - - 1977 43,419 43,419

* * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 43,41S 43,419 - - 4,822 - 4,822 - - 1978 38,597 38,597 - - 4,451 - 4,451 - - 1(379 34,146 34,146 - - 4,200 - 4,200 - - 1980 29,946 29,946 - - 4,000 - 4,000 - - 1981 25,946 25,946 - - 4,000 - 4,000 - - 1982 21,946 21,946 - - 3,93J - 3,900 - 1983 18,046 18.046 - - 3,906 - 3.906 - - 1984 14,140 14,1'.0 - - 3,568 - 3,568 - - 1965 10,572 10,572 - - 3,131 - 3,131 - - 1986 7,441 7,441 - - 3,136 - 3,136 - - 1987 4,305 4,305 - - 3,066 - 3,066 - - 1988 1,239 1,239 - - 619 - 619 - - 1989 620 620 - - 620 - 620 -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT CF ARITH'ETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDI SBUPSED FPOM ONE YFAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY Tr ANCTHER IN THE TAbLE. PROYIS IONAL 02 /05/77 5:56 PM Table 4.3.: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMtSITMENTS, OlSBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT PAGE 6 of 28

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOFEIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN ThOUSANDS OF U.S. DOCLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR OTHER PRIVATE DEBT TOTAL YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D : OTHER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD

OISBURSEDD : INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- : ADJUST- : ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS :------: ------: LATIONS : MENT * : : : PRINCIPAL INTEREST : TOTAL : (1) : (2) : (3) (4) (5) : (6) : (7) : (8) 1 (9)

1969 18 1,362 14,216 14,000 - - - - - 1970 14,018 15,578 - - 2 18 20 - - 1971 14,016 15,576 - 1,467 1,006 1,038 2,044 93 - 1972 14,477 14,477 10,000 10,000 770 1,102 1,872 - - 1973 23,707 23,707 396 93 754 1,894 2,648 - -1A 1974 23,046 23,331 276 579 2,198 1,052 4,050 16 41 1975 21,434 21,434 10,250 10,250 3,237 2,428 5,665 - -'e 1976 28,419 28419 - - 6,419 2,090 8,509 - 28 1977 22,028 22,028

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * *

1977 22,028 22,028 - - 6,423 1,576 7,999 - -1 1978 15,604 15,604 - - 2,832 1,130 3,962 - _ 1979 12,772 12,772 - - 2,833 902 3,735 - - 1980 9,939 9,939 - - 2,835 671 3,506 - -1 1981 7,103 7,103 - - 837 483 1,320 - -1 1982 6,265 6,265 - - 838 425 1,263 - - 1983 5,427 5.427 - - 841 364 1,205 - -1 1984 4,585 4,585 - - 827 305 1,132 - 1 1985 3,759 3,759 - - 785 248 1,333 - - *1986 2,974 2,974 - - 744 195 939 - 1 1987 2,231 2,231 - - 744 143 887 - - 1988 1,487 1,487 - - 744 91 835 - I 1989 744 744 - - 744 39 783 - _

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSCER OF DEBTS FRCM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL 02/05/77 5:56 PM- PAGE 7 of 28 Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOtJSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM INTERNATIONAL ORG. CREDITOR COUNTRY CORP. ANCINA FOMENTO YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD : - - - - -…------_------…------_ - -- - -_------______DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT-. DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-- ONLY :UNOISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS :------:------:------: LATIONS t MENT * : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL (1) : (2 : (3) : 4) : (5) (6) (7) : (8) : (9)

1969 - _ _ 1970 ______1971 - - 98 98 - - - - - 1972 98 98 2,047 416 - - - - - 1973 514 2,145 1,183 1,172 37 59 96 - - 1974 1,649 3,291 - 755 137 213 350 - - 1975 2,267 3,154 38,109 1,125 288 83 371 9 - 1976 3,104 40,966 6,315 10,578 1,118 532 1,650 - 1977 12,565 46,164

* * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED e * * * * *

1977 12,565 46,164 - 12,444 2,067 966 3,033 - 4 1978 22,946 44,101 - 7,873 2,697 1,179 3,876 - -2 1979 28,120 41,402 - 5,569 2,817 1,214 4,031 - - 1980 30,872 38,585 - 3,922 4,475 1,839 6,314 - 1 1981 30,320 34,111 - 2,691 5,577 2,335 7,912 - - 1982 27,434 28,534 - 1,010 5,355 2,018 7,373 - 1 1983 23,090 23,180 - 90 5,230 1,639 6,869 - - 1984 17,950 17,950 - - 5,136 1,249 6,385 - - 1985 12,814 12,814 - - 4,882 861 5,743 - 1 1986 7,933 7,933 - - 4,382 506 4,888 - -1 1987 3,550 3,550 - - 3,050 196 3,246 - - 1988 500 500 - - 500 19 519 -

*THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC ImBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OIJTSTANDING INCLUDING UJNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN' EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL 02/ 05/77 5:56 PM PAGE 8 of 28 Table 4. 3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COoMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM INTERNATIONAL OPG. CREDITOR CG4JNTRY IBRO YEAR DEBT OUTSTAND!NG AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U P I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES BEGINNING OF PEPIODO ______= __ ------_ _ - _ -_ -_ _ - _ -_ -_ -_ _- _-__------_ _- -_- -- -_ _ - _ _- -_ _ - _ -_ -_ -_ _ - _ ----_ _ _ DISBURSED : INCLUDiNG CO:PMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E P v I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- i ADJUST- UNLY :UNDIS3URSED: MENTS : MENTS :------:------: LATIONS MENT * : PRINCIPAL INTEPEST : TOTAL : (1) : (2) : 3) : (4) (5) : (6) 5 (7) : 8) 2 (9)

1969 - - 23,250 ------1970 - 23,250 ------1971 - 23,250 - 15,315 - - - - - 1972 15,315 23,250 - 7,694 - 1,144 1,144 - - 1973 23,009 23,250 - 241 628 1,521 2,149 - - 1974 22,622 22,622 - - 1,884 1,525 3,409 _ _ 1975 20,738 20,738 32,000 826 628 954 1,582 - - 1975 20,936 52,110 68,000 7,121 785 1,870 2,655 - - 1971 27,272 119,325

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 27,272 119,325 - 13,037 835 2,867 3,702 1978 39,474 118,490 - 16,961 895 4,126 5,021 - - 1979 55,540 117,5S5 - 19,506 1,485 5,587 7,072 - - 198J 73,561 lit,110 - 15,263 3,820 6,738 10,558 - - 1981 85,004 112,?90 - 11,320 4.530 7,394 119924 - -1 1982 91,793 107,759 - 7,079 4,835 7,672 12,477 _ - 1983 94,067 102,954 - 3,882 5,619 7,640 13,259 - -1 1984 92,329 97,334 - 2,965 5,949 7,445 13,394 - I 1985 89,346 91,386 - 2,040 6,289 7,152 13,441 - -1 19P6 85,096 85,096 - - 6,664 6,683 13,347 - 1 1987 71,433 7b,433 - - 7,079 6,148 13,227 - -I 1988 71,353 71,3i3 - - 7,524 5,580 13,104 - 1 1989 63,830 63,830 - - 7,999 4,977 12,972 - -I 1990 55,830 55,830 - - 8.534 4,326 12,860 - I 1991 47,297 47,297 - - 6,524 3,635 10,159 - -I 1992 40,772 40,772 - - 4,309 3,202 7,511 - I 1993 36,464 36,464 - - 4,534 2,849 7,383 - -1 1994 31,929 31,929 _ _ 4,784 2,474 7,258 - 1 1995 27,146 27,146 - - 5,059 2,077 7,136 - -I 199% 22,086 22,08b - - 3,939 1,687 5,626 - - 1

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT CF ARITHmETIC IMBALANCE IN THC AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUOING UNDISBUPSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUJSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGCRY TC ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVIS IONAL 02 /05 177 5:56 PM PAC-E 9 of -28 Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEM"ENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISURSED AS OF OEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31. 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOU-JSANDS OF U.S. DOLLAR.S) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM INTERNATIONAL ORG. CREDITOR COUNTRY IDA YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D : OTHER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD : ___-…-__---_-_--…___,____…------…--…-…------DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- t ADJUST- ONLY :UNDIS8URSED: MENTS : MENTS : ------:…------:------: LATIONS i MENT * : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL :(13 1 (2) : (3) : (4) (5) : (6) : (7) : (8) : (93

1969 14,332 16,999 7,400 1,603 - 112 112 - I 1970 15,935 24,400 1,400 1,879 - 124 124 - - 1971 17,814 25,800 6,800 3,787 - 144 144 - - 1972 21,LO1 32,600 8,000 2t076 - 216 216 8 1#920- 1973 25,597 42,512 6,000 1,856 - 307 307 - 2,878 1974 30,333 51,390 6,200 10,641 90 257 347 - - 1975 40,884 57,500 7,500 8,791 181 327 508 - - 1976 49,494 64,819 - 3,889 181 363 544 - - 1977 53,202 64,638

* * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTEF O e * * * *

1977 53,202 64,638 - 29600 205 381 586 - - 1978 55,597 64,433 - 2,731 205 393 598 - - 1979 58,123 64,228 - 1,940 364 403 767 - - 1980 59,699 63,864 - 1,515 380 407 787 - - 1981 60,834 63,484 - 1,375 414 413 827 - 1 1982 61,796 63,071 - 600 448 417 865 - I 1983 619949 62,624 - 375 558 418 976 - -1 1984 61,765. 62,065 - 300 1,012 461 1,473 - - 1985 61,053 61,053 - - 1,050 455 1,505 - 1 1986 63,004 60,034 - - 1,087 447 1,534 - 1 1967 58,918 58,918 - - 1,135 438 1,573 - - 1988 57t783 57,783 - - 1,135 433 1,568 - I 1989 56,649 56,649 - - 1,452 421 1,873 - - 1990 55,197 55,197 - - 1,484 411 19895 - -- 1 1991 53,712 53,712 - - 1t552 400 199S2 - - 1992 52,160 52,160 - - 1,620 387 2,007 - -2 1993 50,538 50,538 - - 1,840 375 ?2215 - -1 1994 '8,b97 48,697 - - 2,024 361 2,385 - - 1995 46,673 46,673 - - 2,099 345 2,444 - -2 1996 44,572 44,572 - - 2,174 330 2,5J4 - -1

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHI"ETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UND1SBuRSED FPOM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGFS IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FRCM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHE'R 1i THE TAbLE. PROVISIONAL 02/05/77 5:56 Pu rable 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT 10 of PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDINC. INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. :1 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM INTERNATIONAL ORG. CREDITOR COUNTRY 108 YEAP DD8T OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST- : ONLY :UNDISURSED: MENTS : MENTS :------… :------:------LATIONS t MENT * : PkINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL : (1) : (<2) (3) : (41 (5) (6) : (7 (8) 9)

1969 8,821 8,821 - - 1,442 382 1,824 - - 1970 7,379 7,379 - - 1,977 300 2t277 - 1971 5,402 5,402 - 19,879 13,049 2,023 217 2,240 - -2 1972 16,426 23,256 1150 6,853 1t431 1,242 2,673 - - 1973 21,848 22,975 28 131 1,361 1,878 3,239 - 1,208 1974 21,826 22,850 35,019 40 651 2,023 2,674 1,00 1,144 1975 22,359 57,359 55,880 9,852 696 1,994 2,690 - -565 1976 30,950 111,978 38,300 23,824 1,313 2,958 4,271 - -89 1977 53,372 148,876

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * t e * 1977 539372 148,876 - 299900 1,313 3,529 4,842 - - 1978 81,959 147,563 - 23,570 1,313 4,259 5,572 - - 1979 104,216 146,250 - 16,926 1,313 4,742 6,055 - - 1980 119,829 144,937 - 13,157 3,057 5,032 8,089 - - 1981 129,929 141,880 8,352 - 3t245 5,159 8,404 - - 1982 135,036 138,635 2,833 - 3,245 5,105 8,3s0 - - 1983 134,624 135,390 - 766 3,245 4,906 8,151 - - 1984 132,145 132,145 - - 3,245 4,659 7t904 - -1 1985 128,899 126,899 - - 4,249 4,731 8,980 - 2 1986 124,652 124,652 - - 5,046 4,627 9,673 - - 1987 119,606 119,606 - - 5,702 4t531 10,233 - - 1988 113,904 113,904 - - 5,720 4,236 9,956 - -1 1989 108,183 108,183 - - 5,739 3,940 9,6r9 - 1 199D 102,445 102,445 - - 5,758 3,645 9,403 - 1991 96,688 969688 - - 5,777 3,348 9,125 - _ 1992 90,911 90,911 - - 4,493 3,378 7,561 - 1 1993 86,429 86,429 - - 4,503 2,884 7,387 - _ 1994 81,926 81,926 - - 4,523 2,692 7,215 - - 1995 77,403 77,403 - - 4,544 2,500 7,044 - 1 1996 72,860 72,860 - - 4,565 2,308 6,873 1

* COLUMN THI S SHOWS THE AMOUNT CF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOCUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDOI'G UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHAIJGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL oz/05/71 5:56 PM PAGE 11 of28 Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTFRNAL PUBLIC DEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY OEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM INTERNATIONAL ORG. TOTAL YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R T 0 D OTHER CHANGES ; BEGINNING OF PERIOD : … s….……-…-- --_---__------_----___--______--______DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS …------:------:------: LATIONS : MENT * :I:: X : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TCTAL (1) (21 : (3) (4) s (5) (6) (7) s (8) (9) 1969 23,153 25,820 30,650 1,603 1,442 494 1,936 - 1 1970 23,314 55,029 1,400 1,879 I,077 424 2,401 - - 1971 23,216 54,452 26,777 32,249 2,023 361 2,384 - -2 1972 53944,0 79,204 11,197 17,039 1,431 2,602 4,033 8 1,920 1973 70,968 90.882 7,211 3,402 2,026 3,765 5,791 - 4,086 1974 76,430 100,153 41,219 11,436 2,762 4,018 6,780 1,003 1,144 1975 86,248 138,751 133,489 20,594 1,793 3,358 5,151 9 -565 1976 104,484 269,873 112,615 45,412 3,397 5,723 9,120 - -88 1977 146,411 379,003

* * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PPOJECTED * * * * * *

1977 146,411 379,003 - 57,981 4,420 7,743 12,163 - 4 1978 199,976 374,587 - 51,135 5,110 9,957 15,067 - - -2 1979 245,999 369,415 - 43,941 5,979 11,946 17,925 - - 1980 283,961 363,496 - 33,857 11,732 14,016 25,748 - 1 1981 306,087 351,765 - 23,738 13,766 15,301 29,0b7 - - 1982 316,059 337,999 - 11,522 13,853 15,212 29,065 - 2 1983 313,730 324,148 - 5,113 14,652 14,oO3 29,255 - -2 1984 304,189 309,494 - 3,265 15,342 13,814 29,156 - - 1985 292,112 294,152 - 2,040 16,470 13,199 29,669 - 3 1986 277,co85 277,665 - - 17,179 12,263 29,442 - I 1987 Z60,507 260,507 - - 16,966 11,313 28,279 - -1 1988 243,540 243,540 - - 14,879 10,268 25,147 - I 1989 223,662 228,662 - - 15,190 9,334 24,524 - - 1990 213,472 213,472 - - 15,776 8,382 24,158 - 1 1991 197,b97 197,697 - - 13,853 7,343 21,236 - -1 1992 183,843 183,843 - - 10,412 6,667 17,079 - - 1993 173,431 173,431 - - 10,877 6,108 16,985 - -2 1994 162,552 162,552 - - 11,331 5,527 16,858 - 1 1995 151,222 151,222 - - 11,702 4,922 16,624 - -2 1996 139,518 139,518 - - 10,673 4,325 15,0J3 - -I

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TPANSFER OF DEBTS FROM GNE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THF TABLE. PROVISIONAL 02/09/ 77 5:56 PM PAGE 12 of 24 Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND UUTSTANDING AMnUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON OEBT OUTSTANDING IIJCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMIrTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEST REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUZ.ANDS OF U.S. DOLLARSI TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CRE9ITOR COUNTRY APGE!4TItJA YEAR : DE5rT OUTSTANDING AT : T F. A N S A C T i 0 N S 0 U P I N G P E R r 0 D : OTHER CHANGES _ BEGINNING OF PERIO2 …______--_------DISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCCL- : ADJUST- ONLY :UNOISBURSEU: MENTS ; MElTS :------:------: LATIONS : MENT * : P9INCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL : I)} : t22 : {3) (4) : (5) (6) : (7) (8) (9)

196S 61,046 61,046 3,184 3,184 1,021 180 1,201 - 1 1970 63,210 63,210 14,321 14,321 1,021 180 1,201 - - 1971 76,510 76,510 4,310 4,310 1,323 - 1,323 - 1972 79,497 79,497 4,235 4,235 1,797 - 1,797 - - 1973 81,935 81,935 3,401 3,401 2,171 - 2,171 - - 1974 83,165 83,165 2,868 2,868 5,733 - 5,733 - - 1975 80,300 80,300 3,382 3,382 6,183 - 6,183 - - 197o 77,499 77,499 - - 2,343 1,527 3,870 - 1 1977 75,157 75,157

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 75,157 75,157 - - 2,343 1,499 3,842 - -1 1978 72,813 72,813 - - 2,343 1,472 3,815 - 1 1979 70,471 70,471 - - 2,343 1,445 3,788 - - 1980 68,128 68,128 - - 2,343 1,417 3,760 - I 1981 65,786 65,786 - - 2,343 1,390 3,733 - - 1982 63,443 63,443 - - 2,343 1,362 3,705 - - 1963 61,100 61,100 - - 2,343 1,335 3,678 - - 1984 58,757 58,757 - - 2,343 1,338 3,651 - 1 1985 56,415 56,415 - - 2,343 1,280 3,623 - - 1986 54,072 54,072 - - 1,416 1,253 2,669 - - 1987 52,656 52,656 - - 1,416 1,225 2,641 - -1 1988 51,239 51,239 - - 1,416 1,198 2,614 - - 1989 49,823 49,823 - - 1,416 1,171 2,587 - - 1990 48,407 48,407 - - 1,416 1,143 2,559 - -t 1991 46,990 46,990 - - 1,416 1,116 2,532 - 1 1992 45,575 45,575 - - 1,416 1,389 2,505 - _ 1993 44,159 44,159 - - 1,416 1,061 2,477 - -I 1994 42,742 42,742 - - 1,416 1,034 2,450 - - 1995 41,326 41,326 - - 1,416 1,006 2,422 - -I 1996 39,909 39,909 - - 1,416 979 2,395 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL 02/05/77 5:56 PH pAGE 13 of 28 Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTSt COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976 INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DE8T REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOOOS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR- LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CREDITOR COJNTRY 8RAZIL YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD :

DDISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- OISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T 5 CANCEL- : ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS :------:------:------: LATIONS : MENT * : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL L(I (21 (3I : (4) (5J (61 : '7 : (8) s (91 1969 11,809 11,809 - - 5 - 5 - 1970 -I 11,803 11,803 - - - - - _ - 1971 11,803 119803 6,000 - - 1972 11,803 17,803 1,81Z 6t740 916 1,074 1,990 - - 1973 17,627 18,699 - - - 350 350 1,072 1974 17ib27 - 17,627 - - 280 393 673 - - 1975 17,347 17,347 60,000 - 2,557 794 3,351 - 1976 14,790 - 74,790 - 37,800 2,758 586 3,344 - - 1977 49,832 72,032

* * * t * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * e * * * *

1977 49,832 72,032 - 15,000 1,773 1,843 3,616 - 1978 63,060 70,260 - 5,400 787 3,318 4,105 - 1979 67,674 69,474 - 1,800 5,291 3,808 9,099 - - 1980 64,183 64,183 - - 5,291 3,702 8,993 - 1981 58,893 58,893 - - 5,291 3,437 8,728 - 1982 53,603 53,603 - - 5,151 3t125 8,276 - - 1983 48,452 48,452 - - 5,151 2,818 7,969 - - 1984 43,301 43,301 - - 5,151 2,511 7,662 - 2 1985 38,152 38,152 - - 5,151 2,2u4 7,355 - _ 1986 33,001 33,001 - - 5,151 1,895 7,046 - - 1987 27,850 27,850 - - 5,151 1,589 6,740 - 1 1S83 22,700 22,700 - - 5,151 1,281 6,432 - I 1989 17,550 17,550 - - 5,151 975 6,126 - - 1993 12,399 12,399 - - 5,151 668 5,819 - - 1991 7,248 7,248 - - 4,751 360 5,111 1992 - 1 2,498 2,498 - - 2,498 84 2,582 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT CF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUODNG UNDISBURSEO FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMO1N CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARF CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANCTH.R IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL 02/05/77 5 :5z P ' PAGF 14 of 28 Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTEPNAL PUBLIC OEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976 INCLUOES UNLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1. 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARSI TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CQEDITOR COUNTRY CANADA YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHEP CHANGES - BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DOISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- :ISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- I ADJUST- : ONLY :UNUISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS :------:------:------: LATIONS : MENT * : PfINCIPAL : INTEkEST : TOTAL : (1) (2) (3) : (4) : (5) (6) (7) (8) : (9)

1969 - 1,499 - - - - _ 1970 - 1,499 - - 18 18 1,549 53 1971 - - 1,700 - - - - - 13 1972 - 1,713 - - - 9 9 - 12 -1 1973 - 1,725 - 474 - 8 8 - 1974 476 1,724 - 946 - 4 4 - 8 1975 1,411 1,732 - 313 - 13 13 - -43 1976 1,689 1,689 - - - 17 17 - 12 1977 1,701 1,701

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * S

1977 1,701 1,701 - - - 17 17 - - 1978 1,701 1,701 - - - 17 17 - - - 1979 1,701 1,701 - - - 17 17 - 1980 1,701 1,701 - - - 17 17 - - 1981 1,701 1,701 - - 21 17 38 - -1 1982 1,679 1,679 - - 42 17 59 - - 1983 1,c.37 1,637 - - 42 16 58 - 1984 1,596 1,596 - - 42 16 58 - - 1985 1,554 1,554 - - 42 15 57 - -I 1986 1,511 1,511 - - 42 15 57 - 1 1987 1,470 1,470 - - 42 15 57 - - 1980 1,428 19428 - - 42 14 56 - 1989 1,385 1,385 - - 42 14 56 - 1 1990 1.344 1,344 - - 42 13 55 - - 1991 1,302 1,302 - - 42 13 55 - -I 1992 1,259 1,25'J - - 42 12 54 - - 1993 1,217 1,217 - - 42 12 54 - 1 1994 1,176 1,176 - - 42 12 54 - - 1995 1,134 1,134 - - 42 11 53 - -I 1996 1091 1,091 - - 42 11 53 - 1

FROM ONE * THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOISBURSED YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL 02/05/77 5:56 PM

Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTFRNAL PUBLIC DEBT PAGE 15 of -28

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CREDiTOR COUNTRY CZECHOSLOVAKIA YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES t BEGINNING OF PERIOD :

DISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- 2 ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISURSED: MENTS : MENTS :---- -…-----:------: LATIONS 2 MENT * s: PRINCIPAL : INTEREST TOTAL (1 : (2) (3) : (4) : (5) (6) (7) : (81 (9)

1969 ------_ _ 1970 - ______1971 - - 3,894 - - - - - 211 1972 - 4,105 1,356 5,565 68 - 68 - 170 1973 5,563 5,563 - - 155 - 155 - 912 1974 6,320 6,320 - - 106 9 115 - 1,736 1975 7,950 7,950 - - 360 717 1,077 - -237 1976 7,353 7,353 - - 1,307 534 1,841 - 482 1977 6,528 6,523

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 6,528 6,528 - - 1,333 447 1,780 - - 1978 5,195 5,195 - - 1,333 349 1,682 - -1 1979 3,861 3,861 - - 1,333 252 1,505 - - 1980 2,528 2,528 - - 1,132 155 1,287 - - 1981 1,396 1,396 - - 931 81 1,012 - - 1982 465 465 - - 466 16 482 - I

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT O11TSTANDING INCLUDING UNDIS23RSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL 02/05/77 5:56 PM

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT PAGE 16.of 23 Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF

PROJECTIONS BASED CN DEBT OUTSrANDING INCLUDING UNDISeURSED AS OF OEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTEU JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREODTOR LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CREDITOR COUNTRY DENMARK OTHEP YEAR 4 DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U P I N G P E R I 0 U : CHANGES BEGINNING OF PERIOD : ------______------_------…------_- -- - - CANCEL- : ADJUST- DISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E P V I C E P A Y M E N T S : ONLY :UNDI SBURSED: MENTS : MENTS :------:------:------: LATIONS * MENT * : PRINCIPAL : INTEPEST : TOTAL : (1) : 2( 3) : (4 : (5) : 6) : (7 : (8) (9)

1969 - _ _ _ _ 1970 - - - - - _ _ _ 1971 - - - - - _ _ - 1972 - - - - - _ _ _ 1973 - - - - - _ 1974 - - - - - _ - - - -250 L975 - - 3,488 2,232 - - - 21T 1976 2,071 3,238 - 496 - - - 1977 2,729 3,455

* *t * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

- 1977 2,729 3,455 - 276 - - - - - 1978 3,005 3,455 - 276 - - - 1979 3,282 3,455 - 173 - - - _ _ 1980 3,455 3,455 - - - _ 1981 3,455 3,455 - - - 93 - 1982 3,455 3,455 - - 93 - - 1983 3,362 3,362 - - 187 - 187 187 - 1984 3,175 3,175 - - 187 - - 1985 2,988 2,988 - - 187 - 187 187 - 1 1986 2,801 2,801 - - 18? - - 1987 2,615 2,615 - - 187 - 187 - 1988 2,428 2,428 - - 187 - 187 - 1989 2,241 2,241 - - 187 - 187 187 - 1990 2,054 Z,O54 - - 187 - 187 - 1991 1,867 1,867 - - 187 - - 1992 1,681 19681 - - 187 - 187 - 1993 1,494 1,494 - - 187 - 187 - 1994 1,307 1,307 - - 187 - 197 - 1995 1,120 1.120 - - 187 - 187 1996 933 933 - - 187 - 187 -

V THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMCUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGFS IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL- 02/05/77 5:56 PM PAGE 17 of 2$ Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, 0IS8URSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEST PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBOJRSED AS OF OEC- 31, 1976 INCLUOES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANOS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE CF CREDITOR LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CREDITOR COUNTRY GERMANY, FED.REP. OF YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S 0 U R I N G P E R i 0 0 s OTHER CHANGES s BEGINNING OF PERIOD …_… __ _ __ ------…------DISBURSED : INCLUDING 2 COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- t ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS --- : ------LATIONS : MENT * : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL (1) (2) : (3) : (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) : (9) 1969 6,342 8,741 1,663 1,740 1,092 295 1,387 - 84i 1970 7,620 10,159 1,366 1,421 1,285 279 1,564 - 1 1971 7,756 10,241 - 739 1,331 405 1,736 - 1,143 1972 8,057 10,053 - 418 789 444 1,233 - 211 1973 7,9855 9,475 - 231 936 309 1,245 - 1,768 1974 8,614 10,307 28,613 4,566 602 302 904 - 3,310 1975 13,919 41,628 - 8,322 979 483 1,462 - -3,315 1976 19,661 37,334 5,166 6,333 3b5 611 996 - 4,439 1977 28,168 46,554

t * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * 4 * * * *

1977 28,168 46,554 - 6,369 433 721 1,154 - 1 1978 34,104 46,122 - 5,365 433 814 1,247 - - 1979 39,035 45,689 - 3,168 527 981 1,508 - - 1980 41,677 45,162 - 1,782 527 1,001 1,528 - 1 1981 42,934 44,636 - 1,207 527 1,006 1,533 - 1 1982 43,615 44,110 - 385 527 997 1,524 - - 1983 43,473 43,933 - 110 527 982 1,539 - - 1984 43,056 43,056 - - 1,310 964 2,214 - -1 1985 4,1,745 41,745 - - 2,093 922 - 3,015 - 1 1986 39,653 39,653 - - 2,368 872 3,240 - I 1987 37,286 37,Z86 - - 2,368 816 3,184 - - 1988 34,918 34,918 - - 2,368 762 3,13D - i 1989 32,551 32,551 - - 2,368 705 3,073 - - 1990 30,183 30,183 - - 2,368 651 3,019 - -3 1991 27,812 27,812 - - 2,381 596 2,977 - 2 1992 25,433 25,433 - - 2,393 541 2,934 - - 1993 23,040 23,040 - - 2,393 485 2,878 - - 1994 20,647 20,u47 - - 2,134 427 2,561 - 1 1995 18,514 18,514 - - 1,935 381 2,316 - - 1996 16,579 16,579 - - 1,935 340 2,275 - -2

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT CF ARITHMETIC IM8ALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDOING INCLUDING UNOISBURSEO FROM ONE YEAP TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMM'rN CAUSFS OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN FXCHANGE RATES A!iO TRANSFER OF DEBTS FRGM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL - 02/05177 5:56 PM PAGE 18 of 2^ Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976 INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DE8T REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FPOM GOVERNMENTS CREDITOR COUNTRY HUNGARY YEAR DEST OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I O D OTHFR CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST- : ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS… ------:------LATIONS : MENT * : PR(NCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL : (1) : (2 : (3) s (4) (51 (6) : (7) : (3) : (9) 1969 - _ 1970 ------_ _ _ 1971 ------_ _ 1972 - 1,350 - - - - _ _ 1973 - 1.350 - 1,067 375 51 426 67 - 1974 692 908 - 209 148 59 207 - - 1975 753 760 - - 127 44 171 7 - 1976 626 626 - - 78 36 114 - - 1177 548 548

* * * ° * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * e * * * *

1977 548 548 - - 78 32 110 - - 1978 470 470 - - 78 27 105 - -1 1979 391 391 - - 78 22 100 - - 1980 313 313 - - 78 18 96 - - 1981 235 235 - - 78 13 91 - - 1982 157 157 - - 78 8 86 - -1 1983 78 78 - - 78 4 82 -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGOPY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROV IS IONAL 02/05/77 5:56 PM- PAGE 1 9 of 28 Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976 INCLUDES CNLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREOITOR LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CREDITOR COUNTRY JAPAN YEAR : DEST OUTSTANQING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D : OTHER CHANGE BEGINNING OF PERIOD :

DISBURSED 3 INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- : ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISBOSED: MENTS : MENTS ------:------:------: LATIONS I MENT * s: : : : PRINCIPAL INTEREST : TOTAL : (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) : (0) : C9)

1969 - - - - - _ _ _ _ 1970 - - _ _ - _ _ _ - 1971 - - _ - _ 1972 ------_ _ 1973 - - - ______1974 - - - - - _ _ _ _ 1975 - - 12,403 ------344 1976 - 12,059 - 3,724 - - - - 507 1977 3,7TO 12,566

e * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 3,770 12,566 - 2,889 - - - _ - 1978 6,659 12,566 - 2,138 - - - - - 1979 8,797 12,566 - 1,632 - - - - - 1980 10,429 12,566 - I,004 - - - - - 11;s 11,433 12,566 - 881 - 1982 12,314 12,566 - 252 340 25t 591 - i983 12,227 12,227 - - 679 42 1, 61 - -L 1984 11,547 11,547 - - 679 455 1,134 - - 1985 10,868 10,668 - - 679 428 1,107 - - 1986 10,189 10,189 - - 679 401 1,080 - - 1987 9,510 9,510 - - 679 374 1,053 -3 1988 8,830 6,830 - - 679 346 1,025 - - 1989 8,151 8,151 - - 679 319 998 - -1 1990 7,471 7,471 - - 679 292 971 - - 1991 6,792 6,792 - - 679 265 944 - 1992 6,114 6,114 - - 679 238 917 - - 1993 5,434 5,434 - - 679 211 890 - - 1994 4,755 4,755 - - 679 183 862 - - 1995 4,075 4,075 - - 679 156 835 - - 1996 3,396 3,396 - - 679 129 808 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOISBURSEO FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVI S IONAL 02/05/77 5:56 PM PAGE 20 of 28i Table 4 .3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF OEC. 31, 1976 INCLUDES GNLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYA8LE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOQDS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FPOM GOVERNMENTS CREDITOR COUNTRY PERU YEAR : DEBT OUTSTAtNDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD t ______------_------…2…------_ _------______------______------: DISBURSED : INCLUOING COMMIT- : CISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- ADJUST-= : ONLY :UNDIShURSED: MENTS : MENTS :------:------LATIONS : MENT * : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL (11 (2) : (3) : (4) (5) (6) (7) : ) 2 (9)

1969 - - - - - 1970 - - - - - _ _ 1971 - - - - - _ _ 1972 - - - - - _ _ 1573 - - - - - _ _ 1974 - - 400 400 _ - - 1975 400 400 - - - 20 20 1976 400 400 - - 47 19 66 1977 353 353

- * * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * t * e *

1977 353 353 - - 47 17 64 1978 306 306 - - 47 15 62 1979 259 259 - - 47 12 59 1983 212 212 - - 47 10 57 1981 165 165 - - 47 8 55 1982 118 118 - - 47 5 52 1983 71 71 - - 47 3 50 1984 24 24 - - 24 1 25

t THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL oz 105/ I7 5:56 PA

Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEB PAGE 21of PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT RFPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CREDITOR COUNTRY POLAND YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D : OTHER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD :

DISBURSED : INCLUUING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- : ADJUST- ONLY :UNOISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS …… : …… …----:-----:------LATIONS : MENT * : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL : 1) (21 : 3) (4) (5) (6) : 7) : 8) (9)

1969 - _ 1970 - - _ _ _ _ _ 1971 - - - _ _ _ _ 1972 - - 250 - - - - 1973 - 250 4,242 120 81 - 81 1974 39 4,411 22 247 286 6 292 1975 - 4,147 610 351 246 1 247 1976 105 4,511 - 4,406 525 109 634 1977 3,986 3,986

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * * 1977 3,986 3,986 - - 525 193 718 - 1978 3,462 3,462 - - 525 166 691 - - 1979 2,937 2,937 - - 490 141 631 - 1980 2,448 2,448 - - 490 116 606 - - 1981 1,958 1,958 - - 490 92 582 - 1982 1,469 1,469 - - 490 67 557 - - 1983 979 979 - - 490 43 533 - 1984 490 490 - - 490 id 5u8

e THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL 02 /05/77 5:56 PM Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT PAGE 22 of 28

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF OEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GDOOS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CPEDITOR COUNTRY SPAIN YEAR : DEST CUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D : OTHER CHANGFS BEGINNING OF PERIOD : … :… -- _ ------______------__ ------______------______------:IS6UQSEO : INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- : ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISBUPSED: MENTS : -MENTS : ------:------:------: LATIONS : MENT * : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL : (1) : (2) : (3) : (4) :5 : (6) (7) : (8) s (9) 1969 - - 1,000 - - - _ _ _ 1970 - 1,000 ------1971 - 1,000 ------1972 - 1,000 - 883 1973 853 1,000 ------1974 883 1,000 - - 110 34 144 - - 1975 773 890 - - 111 30 141 - - 1976 662 779 - 117 120 30 150 - - 1977 659 659

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 659 659 - - 120 25 145 - - 1978 539 539 - - 120 20 140 - - 1979 419 419 - - 120 16 136 - 1980 300 300 - - 120 11 131 - - 1981 180 180 - - 120 6 126 - - 1982 60 60 - - 60 1 61 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUINT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL 02/05/77 Table 4.3 5 :56 PM PAG;E 23 f2 SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTSt DISBURSFMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUJNTS OF EXTEpNAL PUBLIC OEB' 23f28

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FCREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LCANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CREDITOR COUNTRY SWITZERLAND YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD :

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- : DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST- : ONLY :LINDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS :------:------:------: LATIONS : MENT * PRINCIPAL :INTEREST : TOTAL : (1) : (2) : (3) (4) (5) : (6 : (7 : (83 s (9)

1969 - - - - _ - _ _ 1970 - - - - - _ _ _ _ 1971 1972 1973 - - - - - _ - _ _ 1974 ------_ - 1975 - - 938 1 - - - - -14 1976 1 924 - 296 - - - - 63 1977 297 987

* * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * *

1977 297 987 - 227 - 2 2 - - 1978 523 987 - 168 - 5 5 - - 1979 691 987 - 128 - 6 6 - - 1980 820 937 - 79 - 8 8 - - 1981 899 987 - 69 49 17 66 - - 1982 918 938 - 20 49 18 67 - - 1983 889 889 - - 49 17 66 - -I 1984 839 8'9 - - 49 17 66 - - 1985 790 790 - - 49 16 65 - -1 1986 740 740 - - 49 15 64 - - 1987 691 691 - - 49 14 63 - - 1983 642 642 - - 49 13 62 - -1 1989 592 592 - - 49 12 61 - - 1990 543 543 - - 49 11 60 - -1 1991 493 493 - - 49 10 S9 - - 1992 444 444 - - 49 9 58 - - 1993 395 395 - - 49 8 57 - -1 1994 345 345 - - 49 7 56 - - 1995 296 29% - - 49 6 55 - -1 1996 246 246 - - 49 5 54 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOU'NT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBORSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES APe CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROV . S IONAL 02/05 /77 5:5h6 pM PAc,F24 of 28 Table 4.3 SERVTCE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS' DISBURSEMENIS AND OUT'TANCING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT PROJECTIONS 8ASED ON DEBT OUTSTANOi,D INCLUDING UNOISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976 INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 OEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THCUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FRCM GOVERNMENTS CREOITOR COUNTRY UNITED KINGDOM YEAR s DEBT OUTSTANDING AT . r F A N S A C T I 0 N S 0 U R I N G P E R I 0 0 : OTHER CHANGES BBEGINNING OF PERIOD : …______,______-- _------: DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBUPSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCFt- : ADJUST- : ONLY :U12DIS8UPSEO: MENTS MENTS :------:------…:------LATION5 : MENT t : PPINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL : {(1) (2) (3) (4) (51 (6) (7) (8) (9)

1969 334 4,414 1,452 - 86 36 122 - -1 1970 247 5,779 - - 86 21 107 - - 1971 161 5,693 - - 88 56 144 - 357 1972 79 5,962 6,800 1,842 78 41 119 4,253 -628 1973 1,728 7,803 - 1,989 - 41 41 - -83 1974 3,594 7,720 - 2,060 - 40 40 - 84 1975 5,702 7,804 989 1,866 4 7 11 - -1,169 1976 6,603 7,620 - 909 349 8 357 - -1,191 1977 6,080 6,080

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * f * *

1977 6,080 6,080 - - 330 9 339 - 1 1978 5,751 5,751 - - 330 8 338 - - 1979 5,421 5,421 - - 330 8 338 - - 1980 5,091 5,091 - - 330 7 337 - 1 1981 4,762 4,762 - - 330 6 336 - - 1982 4,432 4,432 - - 330 5 335 - - 1983 4,102 4,102 - - 330 4 334 - 1 1984 3,773 3,773 - - 330 3 333 - - 1985 3,443 3,443 - - 330 2 332 - -1 1966 3,112 3,112 - - 330 2 332 - 1 1987 2,783 2,783 - - 330 1 331 - 2 1988 2,455 2,455 - - 244 - 244 - -I 1989 2,210 2,210 - - 244 - 244 - I 1990 1,967 1,967 - - 244 - 244 - - 1991 1,723 1,723 - - 244 - 244 - -1 1992 1,478 1,478 - - 244 - 244 - 1 1993 1,235 1,235 - - 244 - 244 - - 1994 991 °91 - - 244 - 244 - _ 1995 747 747 - - 244 - 244 - 1 1996 504 504 - - 244 - 244 - _

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN TME AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOSSBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. .PROVISIONALL- 02/05/77 S556 PM PAGE 25 of 28 Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOIS8URSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1. 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LCANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CREDITOR COUNTRY UNITED STATES YEAR s DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S 0 U P I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- : ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS ------:------: LATIONS : MENT s: : : : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL s (1) (2) (3) : 4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1q69 102,012 148,362 22,681 22,172 1,527 1,400 2,927 rO 1,099 1970 122,656 170,545 1,515 27,153 4,079 2,546 6,625 2,349 2 1971 145,724 165,634 25,343 6,258 2,598 2,181 4,779 7 - 1972 149,384 188,372 39,967 42,228 2,686 2,673 5,359 194 - 1973 188,904 225,459 26,460 9,120 3,794 3,331 7,125 5 - 1974 194,230 248,120 28,850 25,517 4,616 3,662 8,278 5,059 - 1975 215,131 267,295 26,924 8,716 4,842 3,779 8,621 42 2 1976 219,007 289,337 25,250 31,508 7,086 4,647 11,733 - I 1977 243,43C 307,502

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * t * * t

1977 243,43C 307,502 - 18,562 10,665 6,060 16,725 - -5 1978 251,322 296,832 - 14,874 10,213 6,192 16,405 - - 1979 255,983 286,619 - 11,073 10,710 6,206 16,916 - -4 1980 256,342 275,905 - 7,373 7,732 5,943 13,675 - I 1981 255,985 268,174 - 6,789 8,592 6,152 14,744 - -5 1982 254,177 259,577 - 3,120 10,396 6,196 16,592 - -1 1983 246,900 249,180 - 1,215 10,889 6,002 16,891 - - 1984 237,226 238,291 - ,Out5 ii,68b 5,9i6 17,602 - -i 1985 226,604 226,604 - - 13,074 5,889 18,963 - -2 1986 213,528 213,528 - - 13,370 5,646 19,016 - -1 1987 200,157 200,157 - - 12,999 5,275 18,274 - -3 19d8 187,155 187,155 - - 1,b2 4,935 16,097 - -2 1989 175,991 175,991 - - 10,036 4,658 14,694 - 3 1990 165,958 165,958 - - 9,668 4,392 14,060 - 1 1991 156,291 156,291 - - 9,287 4,138 13,425 - -2 1992 147,002 147,002 - - 9,292 3,894 13,186 - -2 1993 137,708 137,708 - - 8,983 3,648 12,631 - -1 1994 128,724 128,724 - - 8,989 3,414 12,403 - -2 1995 119,733 119,733 - - 8,204 3,186 11,390 - -1 1996 111,528 1119528 - - 8,210 2,976 11,186 - 3

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT CF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES ANO TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL 02/05/77 5:56 PM

Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEM(NTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT PAGE 26 of 28 PRCJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLU9FS ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 OE8T REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CREDITOR COUNTRY USSR YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S 0 U R I N G P E R I 0 : OTHER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF 9ERIDO : ______- ______…______- ______- ______: DISBURSED : INCLUOING COMMIT- DISbURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST- : ONLY :UNDIS8UPSED: MENTS MENTS 3 ------:------z----: LATIONS I MENT * : : : : : PRINCIPAL : INTEPEST : TOTAL : (1} : (2) (3) : (4) (5) (6) : (7) (8) : (9) 1969 - - - - 1970 ______1971 - 1972 - - 15,934 968 - - - - - 1973 968 15,934 - 3,041 526 4 530 - - 1974 3,483 15,408 - 4,144 294 145 439 - 1975 7,333 15,114 - 518 5,719 992 282 1,274 - 1970 12,060 14,640 - 792 2,573 2,051 405 2,456 - 1977 12,582 13,381 -

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * * 1977 12,582 13,381 - 739 2,183 387 2,570 - -2 1978 11,136 11,196 - 60 2,183 325 2,508 - - 1979 9,013 9,013 - - 2,051 255 2,306 - -2 1980 6,960 6,960 - - 1,919 195 2,114 - 1981 - 5,041 5,041 - - 1,919 137 2,056 1982 3,122 3,122 - - - - 1,919 79 1,998 - -1 k983 1,202 1,202 - - 343 34 377 - - 1984 859 859 - - 343 23 366 - - 1985 516 516 - - 343 13 356 - -1 1986 172 172 - - 172 3 175 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN FXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM CNE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. jPROVISIONAL 02/05/77 5:56 PM PAGE 27 of 28 Table 4.3. SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBUPSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES CONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY ANo GOODS (IN THCUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CREDITOR COUNTRY VENEZUELA YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S 0 U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES 5 BEGINNING OF PERIOD : s…: -- _ _ - _ _ -- ______…___-- ______-- ______--______DISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- s ADJUST- ONLY :VNDISB'RSED: MENTS : MENTS :------: ------:------: LATIONS : MENT * : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL (:l : (2) (3) 1 (4) : (5) : (6) : (7) (8) (9)

1969 2,000 2,000 ------19T0 2,000 2,000 ------1971 2,000 2000 -- 1972 2,000 2,000 ------1973 ~ 2,000 2,000 ------1974 2,000 2,000 ------1975 2,000 2,000 ------1976 2,000 2,000 2,000 - - - _ _ -2,000 1977 - 2,000

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 - 2,000 - 11260 - 13 13 - - 1978 1,260 2,000 - 500 118 34 152 - - 1979 1,642 1,882 - 180 235 35 270 - - 1980 1,587 1,647 - 60 235 32 267 - - 1981. 1,412 1,412 - - 235 27 262 - -1 1982 1,176 1,176 - - 235 22 257 - - 1983 941 941 - - 235 18 253 - - 1984 706 706 - - 235 13 248 - - 1985 471 471 - - 235 8 243 - -1 19U6 235 235 - - 235 4 239 - _

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OLUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL 02O05/17 5:56 PM PAGE 28 of 28' Table 4.3: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT o PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UN2IS6URSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES CNLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOtUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARSI TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS TOTAL YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT I T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 O : OTHEP CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD ______…__ , _ _ _ _…______…______. ______------DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- s ADJUST- ON:LY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS :----_------:------t------: LATIONS t MENT * : PkINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL (: ) (2) (31 3 (4) : (5) (6) (1) (8) : (9) 1969 183,543 237,871 29,980 27,096 3,731 1,911 5,642 70 1,945 1970 207,536 265,995 17,202 42,895 6,471 3,044 9,515 3,898 5' 1971 243,954 272,881 41,247 11,307 5,340 2,642 7,982 7 1,724 1972 250,820 310,505 71,704 62,879 6,334 4,241 1,575 4,447 -235 1973 307,463 371,193 34,103 19,443 8,038 4,094 12,132 1,144 2,596 1974 321,123 398,710 60,753 40,957 12,175 4,654 16,829 5,059 F138 1975 353,019 447,367 109,252 30,902 16,401 6,170 22,571 49 -5,373 1976 364,527 534,799 33,208 88,162 17,049 8,529 25,578 - 2,531 1977 435,82C 553,489

* * * * * * THE FOILOWING FIGUkES ARE PROJECTEO * * * * * *

1977 435,820 553,489 - 45,322 19,830 11,265 31,095 - -4 1978 461,306 533,655 - 28,781 18,510 12,762 31,272 - - 1979 471,577 515,145 - 18,154 23,555 13,204 36,759 - -4 1980 466,174 491,586 - 10,298 20,244 12,632 32,876 - 5 1981 456,235 471,347 - 8,946 20,973 12,389 33,362 - -4 1982 444,203 450,370 - 3,777 22,566 12,169 34,735 - -I 1983 425,413 427,803 - 1,325 21,390 11,758 33,146 - 1 1984 405,349 406,414 - 1,065 22,869 11,245 34,114 - 1 1985 383,546 383,546 - - Z4,526 10,777 35,303 - -6 1980 359,014 359,014 - - 23,999 10,106 34,105 - 3 1987 335,018 335,018 - - 23,221 9,309 32,530 - -2 1988 311,795 311,795 - - 21,298 8,549 2%,847 - -3 1989 2qU,494 290,494 - - 20,172 7,554 28,026 - 4 1990 270,326 270,326 - - 19,004 7,170 26,974 - -4 1991 250,518 250,518 - - 19,036 0,498 25,534 - 2 1992 231,484 231,484 - - 16,800 5,867 22,667 - -2 1993 214,682 214,682 - - 13,993 5,425 19,419 - -2 1994 200,687 200,687 - - 13,740 5,077 18,817 - -2 1995 186,945 186,945 - - 12,756 4,746 17,5)02 - -3 1996 174,186 174,186 - - 12,762 4,440 17,232 - 2

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT CF ARITHMFTIC IMBALANCE IN THE AM'OUNT OUTSTANOING INCLUDING UN0ISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGF RATES ANfn Ti4NSFER OF DEBTS FRCM UNE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TA3LE.

EXTERNAL DEBT DIVISION ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS February 5, 1977 Table 4.4: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY 1/ 1975 1976

Disbursed Undisbursed Total Disbursed Undisbursed Total

LOANS FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS 64,329 26,548 90,877 70,036 27,914 97,950

IDB 74,329 26,548 90,877 70,036 27,914 97,950

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS 14,091 14,091 12 952 12,952

USA 14,091 -- 14,091 12,952 -- 12,952

TOTAL DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY 78,420 26,548 104,968 82,988 27,914 110,902

1/ Provisional

Source: IBRD, External Debt Division, Economic Analysis and Projection Department, February 7, 1977. PROVISIONAL T' i5 ,/7.! 5:56 P,! IA(,E 1 of 5 Table 4.5: SERVICE PAY"FNTS, COMMITMENTS, D!SBURSY:SNTS AND C'.TST4ANDING h40tUNTS OF EXTERNAL PlP-LIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING YNDIS8URSED AS OF 0FC. 31, 1976

INCLUL)ES CNLY DEBT COMMIrTED JAN. 1 1900 - DEC. 31., 1976 ODE1 REPAYAdLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY (IN THW'USANOS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C 7 I 0 N S D U R ! N S P E R I 0 0) OTH-PE CHANOES BEGINNING UF PERIOD :

: DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- : CISURSE- : E v I C ' P A Y M4 F N 7 S CtANC(L- : ADJUST- OfNLY :UNOI.SBU9SEO : MENTS M^NTS…:…- ______------:------IN- : MLS : PRINCIPAL INTEREST: TOTSL : ( I :1) (21 (3) (4 : (4 : (6) t (7) : I8)

1969 43.481 '95y168 8t556 14,467 2,II1 2,175 4.286 2,553 1,59 1970 55,834 101,019 5,530 8,345 2,473 1 ,899 4,372 - 4 19'71 61,709 104,00C - 6t598 3,236 2,019 :i,2';5 79 -2 1972 659070 100,763 23,650 8,371 3,747 2,056 5,8303 6,819 91,995 1973 58,285 104,457 10,000 10,109 2,940 2,176 5,116 871 1 1974 65,455 11,647 - 10,371 3,376 2,306 5,682 7,028 1975 72,450 100,239 10,570 10,033 4,052 2,379 b,431 1,779 -'D 1976 78,420 104,968 10,900 9,534 4,967 2t329 7,296 - 1 1977 82,986E 11t),902

* 4 t * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTEQ * 4 * * e *

1977 32,98E 110,902 - 8,823 5,084 2,283 7,367 - 1978 86,725 105t816 - 79126' 5,212 29213 7,425 - S 1579 88,645 100,t610 - 5,259 5,367 2t109 7,176 - 1980 88,835 95,541 - 3,627 4,267 1,996 6,260 - 1931 8I0,198 91,277 - 2,000 4,318 1,916 6,234 - 1982 85,881 8, 960 - 861 4 ,394 18 01 5,895 - !983 82,648 82,866 - 218 4,169 ',730 5t899 - 198'4 78,S99 786,699 - - 4,629 1,666 6,295 _ -3 193) 74,067 74,067 - - 4,176 1,580 5,756 - 4 1986 69,895 69 ,8;5 - - 4,866j 1 ,543 6,409 - -2 1987 65,027 65,027 - - 4,133 1 489 ',6 2? - -I 1'i88 60,893 6 3,893 - - ,t1103 1,377 5,1'iO - i 1989 57,091 57, 5,91 - - 3,816 1,2S7 5,083 - -4 199') 53,271 533211 - - 3t560 1468 4 ,723 - - 1991 49,709 4c9 7J9 - - 3t4R5 1t073 4,558 - -I 19'92 46t223 46,223 - - 3, 50 981 4,4o! - 1993 42,720 42,720 - - 3,1e1 863 e',064 - 1994 3-',536 39,536 - - 2, oI 804 3,6t5 - 19Q5 36,6 74 36, 6 14 - - 2,375 730 3, 105 - - 1996 34,298 34,29S - - 2t2C2 674 2 ,956 -

4 THIS COLUMN SHOhS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMO:Y9T O)UTST4AioING INCLUDING UN0ISBURSED FROM ONF YEAR TG THE NEXT. THE MOST COMM'ON CAUSES OF Im8ALANCES ARF CHANGES IN FXCHANGr RATES AND TRAJSFER OF DEBTS FPCM ONE CATEGORY TC ANCTH'P IN THE TA8LE. PROVISIONAL 02/05/F7 5 :56 VO PAGE 2 of 5 Table 4.5: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC 3E3T

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDINC INCLUDING UNOISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEST COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEST REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CuRRENCY (IN THCJUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM INTERNATIONAL ORG. CREDOTCR COUNTRY ILB TOTAL YEAR : OEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S 0 U R I N G p E P. I C 0 OTHER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD : ------_ ------_ - - - _ ------____.… DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M F N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST- ONLY :UN0ISBUkSED: MENTS : MENTS :------:------LATIONS NFNT * ?RINCIPAL INTEREST : TOTAL ({1): : (21 (3) : (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) : (9)

1969 22,845 64,360 8,500 8,690 1,509 1,553 3,062 -2 1970 30,021 71,351 5,530 6,078 1,931 1,219 3,049 - S 1971 34,271 75,055 - 5,530 2,449 1,444 3.39? - 1972 37,352 72,553 23,850 8,010 3,099 1,503 4,632 4,877 - 1973 42,263 88,427 10,000 10,106 2,413 1,611 4,024 871 _ 1974 49,956 95,143 - 10,371 2,804 1,807 4,611 7,026 -' 1975 57,523 85,312 10,570 10,033 3,216 1,845 5.061 1,778 -tI 1976 64,329 90,877 10,900 9,534 3,828 1,907 5,735 - 1977 70,036 97,950

* * A * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 70,036 97,950 - 8,823 3,850 1,899 5,749 - -1 1978 75,308 94,099 - 7,126 3,876 1,872 5,748 - 5 1979 78,263 90,228 - 5,259 3,700 1,816 5,516 - - 1983 79,822 86,528 - 3,627 3,473 1,751 5,224 - 3 1981 79,979 83,o58 - 2,000 3,506 1,690 5,196 - 1 1982 78,474 79,553 - 861 3,060 1,593 4,653 - - 1983 76,275 76,493 - 218 3,225 1.553 4,778 - 1 1984 73,269 73,269 - - 3,582 1,538 5,O90 - -2 1985 69,685 69,685 - - 3,674 1,432 5,106 - 3 1985 66,014 6o,014 - 3,851 1,406 5,257 -2 1987 62,161 62,161 - - 3,991 1,361 5,352 _ -1 1988 58,169 58,169 - - 3,655 1,256 4,911 - 1 1989 54,515 54,515 - - 3,662 1,153 4,815 - -' 1990 50,850 50,850 - - 3,398 1,061 4,459 - -2 1991 47,450 47,450 - - 3,315 973 4,288 - -2 199. 44,133 44,133 - - 3,323 888 4,211 - -, 1993 40,807 40,807 - - 2,996 799 3,795 - -2 1994 37,809 37,809 - - 2,667 728 3,395 - -2 1995 35,140 35,140 - - 2,172 663 2,835 - -1 1996 32,967 32,967 - - 2,070 616 2,686 - -1

* THI S COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING U0DI SBJRSEO FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF 'MBALANCES ARE CHANGFS IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGGRY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVIS IONAL

PAG ' 3 of 5 Table 4.5: SERVICE PAYMECNS. COMMITMENTS, DIS8URSFtIENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS CF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON D'BT OUTSTANDING INCLJODING UNDIS8UPSED AS O- DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES COELY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 19CO - OFC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN LCCAL CUPRENCY (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARSI TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FRQM INTEP,1ATIONAL ORG. TOTAL YEAR i DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P F R I 0 D : OTHER CHANGES BBEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING CcnMtIT -- DIS8URSE- : S E k V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST- : ONLY :UNDISBI:RSEC: MENTS MENTS …------:------:------LATICUS : MENT * : : : PPINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL 1) : (2) (3) (4) (5) I (b) 7 (8) 2 (9)

1969 22,845 64,360 8,500 8,690 1,509 1,55' 3,062 - - 1970 30,021 71,351 5,530 6,078 1,831 1,218 3,049 - j 1971 34,271 75,Or5 - 5,530 2,449 1,444 3,8r'3 53 - 1972 37,352 72,553 23,850 8,010 3,099 1,503 4,602 4,877 - 1973 42,263 88,427 10,000 10,106 2,413 1,611 4,024 871 - 1974 49,956 95,143 - 10,371 2,804 1,807 4,611 7,026 -1 1975 57,523 85,312 10,570 10,033 3,216 1,845 5,061 1,778 -11 1976 64,329 90,877 10,900 9,534 3,828 1,907 5,735 - 1977 70,036 97,950

e * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 70,036 97,950 - 8,823 3,850 1,899 5,749 - -1 1978 759008 94,099 - 7,126 3,876 1,872 5,748 5 1979 78,263 90,228 - 5,259 3,700 1,816 5,516 - - 1980 79,822 86,528 - 3,627 3,473 1,751 5,224 - ? 1981 79P979 83,058 - 2,000 3,506 1,690 5,19 - 1982 78,474 79,553 - 861 3,806 1,593 4,653 - - 1983 76,275 76,493 - 218 3,225 1,553 4,778 - I 1984 73,269 73,269 - - 3,582 1,508 5,090 - -2 1985 69,685 69,685 - - 3,674 1,432 5,106 - 3 1986 669014 66,014 - - 3,851 1,406 5,257 - -2 1987 62,161 62,161 - - 3,991 1361 5,352 - -1 1988 58,169 5s,169 - - 3,655 1,256 4,911 - - 1 1989 54,515 54,515 - - 3,662 1,153 4,8t5 - -3 199J 50,350 50,850 - - 3,398 1,061 4,459 - -2 1991 47,450 47,450 - - 3,315 973 4,288 - -2 1992 44,133 44,133 - - 3,323 888 4,211 - -3 1993 40,807 40,807 - - 2,996 799 3,795 - -2 1994 37,809 37,809 - - 2,667 728 3,395 - -2 1995 35,140 35,140 - - 2,172 663 2,835 - -1 1996 32,967 32,967 - - 2,070 616 2,686 - -;

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES AR' CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL -02/05/77 5:5,6 tJ' PAGF 4 of.5 Table 4.5: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSESENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOISeURSED AS OF OEC. 31, 19T6

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT CGMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976 DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LOANS FROM GOVEQNMENTS CREDITOR COUNTRY UNITED STATCS TOTAL YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANiDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 0 2 OTHER CHANGES : BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- : DISbURSE- 2 S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- : ADJUST- ONLY :UNDIS8URSED: MENTS t MENTS 5…------LATIONS MENT' w 2 PRINCIPAL : INTFPEST : TOTAL : (I): : (2) : (3) (4) : (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 1969 20,636 30,808 56 59777 602 622 1,224 2,553 1,959 1970 25,813 29,668 - 2,267 642 681 1t323 - -J 1971 27,438 299025 - 1,068 787 575 1,362 26 -7 1972 27,718 28,210 - 361 648 553 1,201 1,942 -9,590 1973 16,022 16,030 - 3 527 505 1,092 - I 1974 15,499 15,504 - - 572 499 l,C71 2 -? 1975 14,927 14,927 - - 036 534 1,370 1 1

1976 14,091 14,091 - - 1,139 422 1,561 - - 1977 12,952 12,952

* * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 12,952 12,952 - - 1,234 384 1,618 - -1 1978 11,117 11,717 - - 1t336 341 1,677 - l 1979 10,382 10,362 - - 1,367 293 1r660 - -2 1980 9,013 9,013 - - 794 245 1.039 - -

1981 8,219 8,219 -- 812 226 1,038 - - 1982 7,407 7,407 - - 1,034 208 1,242 - - 1983 6,373 6,373 - - 944 177 1,121 - 1 1984 5,430 5t430 - - 1,047 158 1.205 - -1 1985 4,382 4,392 - - 502 148 650 - 1986 3,801 39881 - - 1,015 137 1,152 - - 1987 2,866 20866 - - 142 128 270 - - 1988 2,724 2,724 - - 148 !21 269 - - 1989 2,576 2,576 - - 1154 114 268 - -I 1990 2,421 2,421 - - 162 107 269 - - 1991 2,259 2,259 - - 170 100 270 - 1 1992 2t090 2,090 - - 177 93 270 - - 1993 1,913 1,913 - 158 84 269 - -1 1994 1,727 1,7?7 - - 194 76 270 - 1 1995 1t534 1,534 - - 203 67 270 - -

1996 1,331 1,331 - - 212 58 270 - 1

e THIS COLUMN SHOwS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBAL4NCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLIOINr, LINDISB'IRSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES APr CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND 7RANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHFR IN THE TABLE. PROVISIONAL ('? /0'/7 7 5:56 °1 PAGE5 of 5 Table 4.5: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDINGr AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEET PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSEO AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

0 INCLUDES GNLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1 1900 - DEC. 31, 1 7b rEBT REPAYAeLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY (lN THouSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR LCANS FROM GOVERNMENTS TOTAL YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S 0 U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES t BEGINNING OF PERIOD : - - - …___--…______------DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- t DISBURSE- I S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S C6NCEL- : ADJUST- ONLY :UNDI0SURSED: MENTS : MENTS … -- - -LATI0'NS … : E?NT- : :.: : : PRINCIPAL IMTEPEST : TOTAL (1) (2) (3) (4) : (5) (6) (7) (0 7 (9)

1969 20t636 30,808 56 5,777 602 622 1,224 2,553 ; 19 *970 25,813 29,668 - 2,267 642 681 1,323 - -1 1971 27t438 29,025 - 1,068 787 575 1,362 26 -2 1972 Z7,718 28,210 - 361 648 553 1,201 1,942 9"190 1973 16,022 16,030 - 3 527 5655 1,092 - I 1974 15,499 15,504 - - 572 499 1,071 2 -3 1975 14,927 14,927 - - 836 534 1,370 ' I 1976 149091 14,091 - - 1,139 422 1,561 - - 1977 12,952 12,952

* * * * A THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 12r952 12,952 - - 1,234 384 1,618 - i 1978 11717 11,717 - - 1,336 341 1,677 - I 1979 10,382 10,382 - - 1,367 293 1,660 - -2 1980 9*013 9,013 - - 794 245 1,039 - - 1931 8,219 8,219 - - 812 226 1,03de - 1982 7,407 7,407 - - 1,034 208 1,242 - - 1983 6,373 6,373 - - 944 177 1,121 - I 19e4 5,430 5,430 - - 1,047 158 1,205 - -1 1985 4,382 4,382 - - 502 148 650 - 1 1986 3,881 3,881 - - 1,0L5 137 1t152 - - 1987 2,066 2,866 - - 142 128 270 - - 1988 2,724 2,724 - - 148 121 269 - - 1989 2,576 2,576 - - 154 114 26S - -I 1990 2,421 2,421 - - 162 107 269 - - 1991 29259 2,259 - - 170 100 ?70 - 1992 2,390 2,090 - - 177 93 2tO - - 1993 1,913 1,913 - - IdS 84 259 - 1994 1,727 1,727 - - 194 76 270 - l 1995 1,534 1,534 - - 203 67 270 - - 1996 1,331 1,331 - - 212 58 270 - 1

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AM5!NT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSIANDINS INCLUDIN. UNDISBURSFO FPCv ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST CCMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN FXCHANGE RATES 6ND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TACLE. EXTERNAL DEBT DIVISION ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS FEBRUARY 5, 1977 Table 4.6: COMMITMENTSOF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT, BY SOURCE, SECTORAL ALLOCATION, AID RECIPIENT, 1968-1976 (US$ millions)

Total US$ Millions Per- 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 '974 1975 19761/ (1968-76) cent

SOURCE

GRANDTOTAL 67.9 96.2 29.8 89.3 180.0 78.2 13.7 392.6 384.7 1,492.4 100.0

Repayable in Foreign Currency 49.7 87.6 24.3 89.3 156.1 68.2 173.7 382.0 373.8 1,404.7 94.1 Reyapable in Local Currency 18.2 8.6 5.5 - 23.9 10.0 - 10.6 10.9 87.7 5.9

International Organizations 18.2 39.1 6.9 26.8 35.0 17.2 41.2 144.1 123.5 452.0 30.3 IBRD/IDA -7Y ( M7 T6830 .6) (6.0 ) (6.2) 39.5 68.0 (166.8) 11.2 IDB (18.2) (8.5) (5.5) (19.9) (25.0) (10.0) (35.0) 66.5 49.2 (237.8) 15.9 CAF (-) (-) (-) (0.1) (2.0) (1.2) (-) 38.1 6.3 47.4 3.2

Governments 26.8 30.1 17.2 35.2 71.7 34.1 54.0 109.2 33.3 421.6 28.2 US (17.6) (22.8) (1.5) (25.3) (40.0) (26.5) (28.8) 26.9 25.3 214.7 14.4 Argentina (5.2) (3.2) (14.3) (4.3) (4.2) (3.4) (2.9) 3.4 - 40.9 2.7 Brazil (-) (-) (-) (-) (1.8) (-) (-) 60.0 - 61.8 4.1 W. Germany (-) (1.7) (1.4) (-) (28.6) - 5.2 36.9 2.5 Others (4.0) (2.4) (-) (5.6) (25.7) (4.2) (3.7) 18.9 2.8 67.3 4.5

Supplier's Credits 14.6 11.5 1.6 3.9 27.4 16.6 8.7 39.7 30.0 154.0 10.3

Private Banks 1.5 1.3 - 23.3 23.1 9.9 56.0 89.3 197.9 402.3 27.0

Other2/ 6.8 14.2 4.1 0.1 22.7 0.4 3.8 10.3 62.4 4.2

SECTORAL ALLOCATION -/

Agriculture 0.7 - 5.3 20.8 38.0 2.4 3.8 60.3 25.0 156.3 10.5 Mining 1.1 5.2 5.3 3.3 41.0 3.2 39.6 47.5 64.6 210.8 14.1 Hydrocarbons 41 - 28.3 _ 30.2 1.1 0.8 - 82.6 99.6 5/ 242.6 16.3 Manufacturing 10.1 3.0 1.4 0.2 20.5 16.2 12.0 13.2 66.9 143.5 9.6 Power 4.1 13.7 - - - 23.3 2.0 10.0 --- 53.1 3.6 Transport &Communications 9.2 10.9 0.3 2.9 39.0 15.6 93.3 140.1 58.9 370.2 24.8 Water and Sewerage 0.1 2.1 - 0.6 0.9 _ - - 11.9 15.6 1.0 Housing &Urban Development - - - - 0.1 3.0 - - 10.4 13.5 0.9 Education - - - - 0.1 - 6.2 1.2 7.5 0.5 Community Development 1.7 - - - - - 1.0 - - 2.7 0.2 Zinancial System - - - - 0.1 6.0 - - - 6.1 0.4 Studies 2.5 - 0.5 - - - 5.0 - - 8.0 0.5 Unallocated 38.4 33.0 17.0 31.3 39.3 7.6 17.0 32.7 46.2 262.5 17.6

RECIPIENT 3/

Central Government 28.2 27.3 17.2 38.2 66.8 30.6 39.8 98.9 144.4 491.4 32 9

Export Enterprises 1.1 29.8 5.3 33.5 37.1 3.2 39.6 130.5 61.6 341.7 22.9

Other Public Sector 38.6 39.1 7.3 17.6 76.1 44.4 94.3 163.2 178.7 659.3 44.2

1/ Provisional 2/ Mainly Bonds. 3/ 1975 and 1976 Figures Preliminary. 4/ Tncluding Refining. 3 Includes Power.

Note: Analysis Excludes Gulf Oil Nationalization in 1969 amounting to US$78,6 million.

Source: Central Bank, IBRD Social Economic Data Division; Mission Estimates. Table 5.L: PUBLIC SECTOR RESOURCES FOR INVESTMENT, 1970-75 (in millions of Bolivian pesos)

A C T U A L Estimated 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

I. SOURCES

A. Current Account Surplus2.' 509.9 475.8 557.8 1,368.6 4,190.3 27.7 1. Central Government 104.6 -149.9 -297.5 -516.5 -662.9 -488.6 a. Treasury 92.0 -89.0 -241.8 -437.4 -593.2 -463.3 b. Other accounts 48.0 0.4 13.5 12.3 102.0 174.0 c. Social Security 18.5 2.0 -0.5 12.9 -26.2 -30.9 d. National Road Service -53.3 -58.9 -65.7 -100.1 -143.8 -167.2 e. CONAVI (Housing) -0.6 -4.4 -3.0 -4.2 -1.7 -1.2

2. Export Enterprises2/ 410.1 605.1 756.6 1,774.9 4,632.4 2,900,7 a. COMIBOL 145.8 180.6 71.0 508.4 954.1 -92.9 b. YPFB 264.3 424.5 685.6 1,266.5 3,678.3 2,993.6

3. Other Public Enterprises -32.5 -4.9 70.5 66.9 180.0 468.3

4. Municipalities 27.7 25.5 28.2 43.3 40.8 27.3

B. Capital Account Revenues 54.1 93.1 69.2 69.5 278.8 342.3

C. Borrowing 1.032.8 2,417.5 1,679.5 1,781.7 3,065.9 4,499.0 1 External 816.9 2,041.8 1,058.9 1,250.9 2,589.3 3,829.0 2. Domestic 215.9 375.7 620.6 530.8 476.6 670.0

D. Cash Balances 123.6 17.5 44.8 19.9 -1.136.2 -689.5

TOTAL 1.720.4 3,003.9 2,351.3 3.239.7 6,398.8 7,059.5

II. USES

A. Gross Public Investment 1,143.9 2.518.8 1,410.4 1,934.0 3,741.1 4,702.1 a. Fixed Investment 1,011.8 2,441.1 1.246.5 1,855.0 3,502.6 4,189.3

1. Central Government 336.0 275.4 333.9 701.8 1,023,2 1,019.8 a. Treasury 18.3 13.3 95.8 72.1 107.4 227.0 b. Other accounts 296.7 241.5 218.8 545.7 776.8 300.0 c. Social Security - - - - - 18.8 d. National Road Service 21.0 20.1 19.3 84.o 139.0 473.8 e. CONAVI (Housing) - - - - - 0.2

2. Export Enterprises 419.2 1,928.6 588.6 642.1 2,123.9 2,305.0 a. COMEBOL 55.2 62.6 64.6 110.1 14.1 - bh YPFB 364.0 1,866.0 524.0 532.0 2,109.8 2,305.0

3. Other Public Enterprises 231.7 220.1 290.4 472.8 305.5 786.7

4. Municipalities 24.7 17.0 33.6 38.3 50.0 77.8

b. Financial Investment 132.3 77.7 163.9 79.0 238.5 512.8

B. Amortization Payments 351.2 339.5 695.6 931.5 1,385,5 1,551. 1. External 309.8 284.5 532.8 741.1 1,109.7 1,176.0 2. Domestic 41.4 55.0 162.8 190.4 275.8 375.0

C. Transfer Payments to the Non- consolidated Public Sector 225.3 145.6 245,3 374.2 1,272.2 806.4

TOTAL 1,720.4 3,003.9 2,351.3 3,239.7 6,398.8 7,059.5

1/ Before all intra-public sector tax and transfer payments,

2/ Transfer expenditures in the form of tax payments reduced the savings available to YPFB and COMIBOL by the following amounts:

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

YPFB 93.1 132.2 246.9 567.0 1,841.9 1,514.3 COMIBOL 52.9 29.2 55.2 363.3 1,115.1 703.9

TOTAL 146.0 161.4 302.1 930.3 2,957.0 _2218.2

Source: Ministry of Finance; Central Bank; public enterprises; decentralized agencies; mutnicipalities; Mission estimates. Table 5.2: PUBLIC SECTOR RESOURCES FOR INVESTMENT (As Percentage of GDP at Market Prices)

A C T U A L Estimated

WTTY ' 1971 - -1Th7- 1T- 1975 I. SOURCES

1/ A. Current Account Surplus 4.8 4.2 4.2 6.6 12.1 7.2

1. Central Government 1.0 -1.3 -2.2 -2.5 -2.0 -1.2

a. Treasury 0.9 -0.8 -1.8 -2.1 -1.8 -1.2 b. Other Accounts 0.5 -- 0.1 -- 0.3 0.1 c. Social Security 0.2 -- -- 0.1 -0.1 -- d. National Road Service -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.IJ -o.h e. CONAVI (fousing) ------

2. Export Enterprises 3.9 5.3 5.7 8.5 13.7 7.2

a. COMIBOL 1.h 1.6 0.5 2.4 2.8 -0.2 b. YPFB 2.5 3.7 5.2 6.1 10.9 7.4

3. Other public Enterprises -0.3 -- 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.2 Municipalities 4. 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 B. Capital Account Revenues 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.8 C. Borrowing 9.7 21.5 12.7 8.6 9.1 11.2 1. External 7.7 18.2 8,0 6.0 7.7 9.5 2. Domestic 2.0 3.3 h.7 2.6 1.4 1.7 D. Cash Balances 1.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 -3.h -1.7

TOTAL 16.2 26.7 17.8 15.6 19.0 17.6

IT. USES

A. Gross Pablic Investment 10.8 22.4 10.7 9.3 11.1 11.6 a. Fixed Investment 9.5 21.7 9.4 8.9 10.3 10.4

1. Central Government 3.2 2.4 2.5 3.4 3.0 2.5 a. Treasury 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.6 b. Other Accounts 2.8 2.1 1.7 2.6 2.3 0.7 c. Social Security ------d. National Road Service 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 O.2 1.2 e. CONAVI (Housing) ------

2. Dcport Enterprises 3.9 17.1 4-4 3.1 6.3 5.7

a. CChIBOL 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 -- -- b. YPPB 3.4 16.5 3.9 2.6 6.3 ' 5.7 Other 3. Public Enterprises 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.2. 0.9 2.0

4. Municipalities 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2

b. Financial Investment 1.2 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.8 1.3

B. Amortization Payments 3.3 3.0 5.3 4.5 4.1 3.9 1. External 2.9 2.5 4.0 3.6 3.3 2.9 Domestic 2. 0.4 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.0 C. Transfer Payments to the Non- conso!f Piibiic Sector 2.1 1.3 1.8 1.8 3.8 2.1

TOTAL 16.2 26.7 17.8 25.6 19.0 17.6

1/ Before transfers

NOTE: Colujmns may not sum to totals due to rounding

Source: Tables 2.1, 5.1 Table 5.3: PUBLIC SECTOR RESOURCES FOR INVESTMENT (Percentage Distribution)

A C T U A L Estimated

1970 1971 1972 1973 19T7 19'5

I. SOURCES

A. Current Account Surplus 29.6 15.8 23.7 42.2 65.5 41.2

1. Central Government 6.1 -5.0 -12.7 -15.9 -lo.4 -6.9

a. Treasury 5.3 -3.0 -10.3 -13.5 -9.3 -6.6 b. Other Accounts 2.8 -- o.6 o.'4 1.6 2.5 c. Social Security 1.1 -- -- 0.4 -o.4 -0.4 d. National Road Service -3.1 -1.9 -2.9 -3.1 -2.3 -2.4 e. CONAVI (HousLng) -- -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -- --

2. Export Enterprises 23.8 20.1 32.2 54.8 72.4 41.1

a. COMIBOL 8.4 6.0 3.0 15.7 14.9 -1.3 b. YPFB 15.4 14.1 29.2 39.1 57.5 42.4

3. Other Public Enterprises -1.9 -0.2 3.0 2.1 2.8 6.6

4. Municipalities 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.3 o.6 o.4

B. Capital Account Revenues 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.1 4.4 4.8

C. Borrowing 60.0 80.5 71.4 55.0 47.9 63.7

1. External 47.5 68.o 45.0 38.6 40'.5 54.2 2. Domestic 12.5 12.5 26.4 16.4 7.4 9.5 D. Cash Balances 7.3 O.6 2.0 0.7 -17.8 -9.7 TCTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 II. USES

A. Gross Public Investment 66.5 83.9 60.0 59.7 58.5 66.3

a. Fixed Investment 58.8 81.3 53.0 57.3 5h.8 59.o

1. Central Government 19.5 9.2 14.2 21.7 16.o 14.1

a. Treasury 1.1 o.4 4.1 2.2 1.7 3.2 b. Other Accounts 17.2 8.0 9.3 16.8 12.1 4.2 c. Social Security ------d. National Road Service 1.2 0.8 0 .8 2.6 2.2 6.7 e. CONAV I (Housing) ------

2. Export Enterprises 24.4 64.2 25.0 19.8 33.2 32.7

a. COMIBOL 3.2 2.2 2.7 3.4 D.2 -- b. YPFB 21.2 62.1 22.3 16.4 33.0 32.7

3. Other Public Enterprises 13.5 7.3 12.)4 14.6 4.8 11.1

4. Municipalities 1.4 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.8 1.1

b. Financial Investment 7.7 2.6 7.0 2.4 3.7 7.3

B. Amortization Payments 20.4 11.3 29.6 28.8 21.7 22.0

1. External 18.0 9.5 22.7 22.9 17.3 16.7 2. Domestic 2.4 1.8 6.9 5.9 4.4 5.3

C. Transfer Payments to the Non- consolidated Public Seetcr 13.1 4.8 10.4 11.5 19.8 11.7

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

1/ Before transfers

NOTE: Columns mav not sum to totals due to rounding

Source: TABLE 5.1 Table 5.4: ANALYSTS OF CONSCLIDATED PUELIC SECTOR FINANCES, 1970-1975 (in millions of Bolivian pesos)

A C T U A I Estimated 1970 1971 1972 1973 197h 1975 1/_ _ Central Government 8 Current Revenue 1,315.6 1,295.2 l,492.1 2,14.8 3,700.0 4, 34.5 After transfer current revenue (1,395-6) (1,408.4) (1,709.8) (2,981.2) (6,08h.8) (6,858.5) Intra-public sector transfer receipts ((80.9) (113-2) (217.7) (796-.4) (2,384.8) (2,024.0) o/w: Treasury (36-5) (73.5) (1h9.I) (6G3.2) (2,0Q8.2) (1, 76.2~ Decentralized agencies (hh-L) (39-7) (68.6) (143.2) (286.5) (347.8) Current expenditures 1,211.0 l,445.1 1,789.6 2,701.3 4,362.9 5,323.1 Alter transfer current expenditures (1,, (I,Sh6.9).5) (I,070-.5) (2,987.-0) (5,193,9) (6,178-5) Intra-public sector transfer payments (189.9) (159.4) (180.9') (285.7) (831.0) (855k4) Ow: Treasury (189.6) (158.8) (180.2) (283.L) (826.5) (850.8) Decentralized agencies 1/ (0-3) (0.6) (0.7) (2.3) (4.5) (L.6) Current account surplus/deficit i04.L -119.9 -297.5 -516,5 -662.9 -488.6 Savings ratioO2 0.079 -0.216 -0.199 -0.236 -0.179 -0.101 Gross fixed investment 336.O 275.8 333.9S 701.8 1,023.2 1,019.8 Savings as percent of investments 31.1 -5h.4 -89.1 -73.6 -6h.8 -87.9

Export Enterprises Current revenues 1,508.5 1,705.4 2,095.6 3,958.3 8,616.7 7,123.4 Current expenditures 1,098.4 1,100.3 1,339.0 2,183.4 3,984.3 4,222.7 Current account surplus/deficitl/ 410.1 605.1 756.(6 1,774.9 4,632.4 2,900.7 Savings ratio2/ 0.272 0.355 0.361 0.448 0.538 0.407 Gross fixed investment 419.2 1,928.6 588.6 642.1 2,123.9 2,305.0 Savings as percent of investment 97.8 31.4 128.5 276.4 218.1 125.8

Other Public Enterprisee3' Current revenues 336.2 340.6 404.3 685.6 1,175.1 2,100.2 Current expenditures 286.8 343.2 352.2 620.5 990.5 1,626.8 Current account surplus/deficit (a)/ 49.4 -2.6 52.L 65.1 184.6 473.4 Current account surplus/deficit (b)1/ -32.5 -4.9 70.5 66.9 180.0 468.3 Savings ratio2/ 0.147 -0.008 O.L29 0.095 0.157 0.225 Gross fixed investment 231.7 220.1 290.4 472.8 305.5 786.7 Savings as percent of investment 14.0 2.2 ' 24.3 14.2 58.9 59.5

Municipalities Current revenues 80.0 83.5 100.7 133.0 166.4 192.5 Current expenditures 1/ 52.3 58.0 72.5 89.7 125.6 165.2 Current account surplus/deficit- 27.7 25.5 28.2 43.3 40.8 27.3 Savings ratio' 0.346 0.305 0.280 0.326 0.245 0.142 Gross fixed investment 24.7 17.0 33.6 38.3 50.0 77.8 Savings as percent of investment 112.2 150.0 83.9 113.1 81.6 35.1 CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR Current revenues 3,240.3 3,424.7 4,092.7 6,961.7 13,658.2 14,250.6 Current expenditures 2,648.5 2,946.6 3,553.3 5,594.9 9,463.3 11,337.8 Current account surplus/deficit (a)1/ 591.8 478.1 539.4 1,366.8 4,194.9 2,912.8 Current account surplus/deficit (b)l/ 509.9 475.8 557.8 1,368.6 4,190.3 2,907.7 Savings ratioZ/ 18.3 14.0 13.2 19.6 30.7 20.4 Gross fixed investment 1,011.6 2,441.1 1,246.5 1,855.0 3,502.6 4,188.3 Savings as percent of investment 50.4 19.5 44.7 73.7 119.6 69.4

Capital revenue 54.1 93.1 69.2 69.5 278.8 342.3 Financial investment 132.3 77.7 163.9 79.0 238.5 512.8 Transfers to Non-consolidated public sector 225.3 145.6 245.3 374.2 1,272.0 825.4

Overall surplus/deficit -805.2 -2,095.5 -1,028.7 -870.1 -544.0 -2,258.5

Financing 805.2 2,095.5 1.028.7 870.1 544.0 2,258.5 External (net) 507.1 1,757.3 526.1 509.8 1,479.6 2,653.0 Borrowing (816.9) (2,041.8) (1,058.9) (1,058.9) (2,589.3) (3,829.0) Amortization (-309.8) (-284.5) (-532.8) (-741.1) (-1,109.7) (-1,176.0)

Domestic (net) 174.5 320.7 457.8 340.4 200.8 295.0 Borrowing (215.9) (375.7) (620.6) (530.8) (476.6) (670.0) Amortization (-41.4) (-55.0) (-162.8) (-190.4) (-275.8) (-375.0)

Short-term financing and cash balances 123.6 17.5 44.8 19.9 -1,136.0 -689.5

1/ Before transfers.

2/ Current account surplus (deficit) (b), divided ty current revenue.

Current account surplus/deficit (a) excludes Lloyd Aereo Boliviano and the National Smelting Company; (b) includes these enterprises.

Source: Ministry of Finance; Central Bank, public enterprises; decentralized agencies; municipalities; Mission Estimates. Page I of 2

Table 5.5: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS. 1970-75 ($b millions)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

I. Current Revenue-/ 1,352.1 1,368.1 1,641.2 2,838.0 5,798.3 6,510.7 1. Treasury Operations 1,070.2 1,093.2 1,330.0 2,424.9 5,069.7 5,642.3 a. Before Public Sector Tax Payments (1,033.7) (1,019.7) (1,180.9) (1,771.7) (2,971.4) (3,966.1) b. Public Sector Tax Payments (36.5) (73.5) (149.1) (653.2) (2,098.3) (1,676.2) 2. Other Accounts 61.1 50.4 59.3 57.1 220.0 304.0 3. Decentralized Agencies 220.8 255.1 251.9 356.0 508.6 564.4 a. CONAVI (11.8) (10.7) (13.8) (14.8) (17.3) (17.8) b. CNSS (202.8) (208.1) (221.4) (332.6) (481.2) (533.7) c. SNC (6.2) (6.3) (16.7) (8.6) (10.1) (12.9)

II. Current Expenditurei1 1.356.5 1,564.8 1.901,9 2.843.8 4,907.4 5,830.7 1. Treasury Operations 1,086.9 1,227.8 1,534.3 2,349.3 4,104.6 4,932.4 a. Before Intra-Public Sector Transfers (941.7) (1,108.7) (1,422.7) (2,209.1) (3,564.0) (4,429.4) b. Transfers to rest of Public Sectot (145.2) (119.1) (111.6) (140.2) (540.0) (503.0) 2. Other Accounts 13.1 50.0 45.8 44.8 118.0 130.0 3. Decentralized Agencies 256.5 287.0 321.8 449.7 684.8 768.3 a. CONAVI (12.4) (15.1) (16.8) (19.0) (19.0) (19.0) b. CNSS (184.6) (206.7) (222.6) (322.0) (509.9) (567.9) i. Pre-tranisfer expenditures (184.3) (206.1) (221.9) (319.7) (507.4) (564.6) ii. Transfers to rest of public sector (0.3) (0.6) (0.7) (2.3) (2.5) (3.3) c. SNC (59.5) (65.2) (82.4) (108.7) (155,9) (181.4) i. Pre-transfer expenditures (59.5) (65.2) (82.4) (108.7) (153.9) (180.1) ii. Transfers to rest of public sector (-) (-) (_) (_) (2.0) (1.3)

III. Current Account Surplus/Deficit -4.4 -196.1 -260.7 -5.8 890.9 680.0

IV. Other Revenue 43.2 45.5 45.1 21.4 10.8 53.2 1. Treasury Operations 3.7 4.9 16.9 6.2 - 23.1 2. Other Accounts 25.5 29.9 17.1 12.2 7.0 27.0 3. Decentralized Agencies 14.0 10.7 11.1 5.0 3.8 3.1 o/w S,N,C. (14.0) (10.7) (11.1) (3.0) (3.8) (3.1)

V. Investment Expenditures 362.1 330.6 436.5 901.6 1,352.7 1,613.4 A. Fixed Capital Formation 336.0 275.4 333.9 701.8 1,023.2 1,019.8 l. Treasujry Operations (18.3) (13.8) (95.8) (72.1) (107.4) (227.0) 2. Other Accounts (296.7) (241,5) (218.8) (545.7) (776.8) (300.0) 3. Decentralized Agencies (21.0) (20.1) (19.3) (84.0) (139.0) (492.8) a. CONAVI (-) (-) (-) (^) (-) (0.2) b. CNSS (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (18.8) r. SNC (21.0) (20.1) (19.3) (84.0) (139.0) (473.8) B. Capj.cl Transfers 26.1 55.7 102.6 199.8 329.5 593.6 1. Treasury Operations (15.0) (38.4) (72.4) (113.3) (246.4) (489.1) 2. Other Accounts (6.8) (14.3) (27.2) (83.5) (82.1) (100.0) 3. Decentralized Agencies (4.3) (2.5) (3.0) (3.0) (1.0) (4.5) o,'w CNSS (4.3) (2.5) (3.0) (3.0) (1.0) (4.5)

VI. Overall Surplus/Deficit -323.3 -481.2 -652.1 -886.0 -451.0 -880.2 Page 2 of 2

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

VII. Financing 323.3 481.2 651.1 886.0 451.0 880.2 A. External 223.0 170.8 168.5 517.9 1,029.1 1,400,9 a. Drawings 316.2 240.9 301.7 699.7 1,318.0 1,731.2 1. Treasury Operations 0.5 19.7 82.7 44.5 - - 2. Other Accounts 288.0 191.1 185.2 597.1 1,272.2 1,438.1 3. Decentralized Agencies 27.7 30.1 33.8 58.1 45.8 293.1 a. CONAVI (13.2) (12.0) (11.6) (12.1) ( - ) ( - b. CNSS ( - ) ( -) ( ) ( -) ( -) c. SNC (14.5) (18.1) (22,2) (46.0) (45.8) (293.1) b. Amortization -93.2 -100.8 -133.2 -225.9 -288.9 -337.1 1. Treasury Operations -72.6 -74.6 -125.6 -165.8 -249.5 -287.4 2. Other Accounts -19.1 -24.7 -6.1 -54.3 -35.2 -40.5 3. Decentralized Agencies -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -5.8 -4.2 -9.2 a. CONAVI (-1.5) (-1.5) (-1.5) (-5.8) (-4.2) (-4.2) b. CNSS( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) c. SNC (~) (-~)(~)(~) (~) (5-0) c. Changes in Long Term Foreign Assets - 30.7 - 44.1 _ 6.8 o/w Treasury Operations - 30.7 - 44.1 - 6.8

B. Internal 100.3 310.4 483.6 368.1 .578.1 -520.7 a. Drawings (net) 32.1 233.9 442.5 232.9 -469.0 -402.7 1. Treasury Operations 127.5 245.2 482.1 310.0 52.3 550.6 2. Other Accounts -79.3 15.0 17.0 -55,6 -510.8 -932.8 3. Decentralized Agencies -16.1 -26.3 56.6 -21.5 -10.5 -20.5 a. CONAVI (-15.0) (-24.0) (-56.0) (-19.0) (-8.0) (-16.0) b. CNSS (-1.1) (-2.3) (-0,6) (-2.5) (-2.5) (-4.5) c, SNC ) ( ) )( ) ( ) b. Loans from Bolivian-owned Counterpart Funds 37.2 30.2 48,2 38.6 124.9 200.0 1. Treasury Operations 18.0 18.5 28.4 31.0 101.2 117.7 2. Other Accounts 19.2 11.7 19.8 7.6 23.7 82.3 3. Decentralized Agencies ------c. Amortization (net) -2.3 -16.1 _34.4 -17.6 -50.3 -41.2 1. Treasury Operations -11.6 -25.3 -43.3 -28,9 -62.2 -54.0 2. Other Accounts - - - - 3. Decentralized Agencies 9.3 9.2 8.9 11.3 11.9 12.8 a. CONAVI (4.0) (4.6) (4,2) (6.5) (7.0) (7.0) b. CNSS (5.3) (4.6) (4,7) (4.8) (4.9) (5.8) c. SNC ( ) ( - ) ( - ) ( -) ( ) ( -) d. Other 33.3 62.4 27.3 114.2 -183.7 276.8 1. Treasury Operations 28.9 7.4 -0,1 11.9 -166.6 -2.8 2. Other Accounts 21.2 32.4 -0.5 109.9 - -348.1 3. Decentralized Agencies -16.8 22.6 27.9 -7.6 -17.1 74.1 a. CONAVI (-0.1) (13.3) (44.7) (8.0) (2.3) (12.6) b. CNSS (-18.1) (-1.2) (0.1) (-9.9) (27.3) (56.2) c. SNC (1.4) (10.5) (-16.9) (-5.7) (-46.7) (5.3)

U/ Before intra-Central Governmental transfer. Table 5.6: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT REVENUES, 1970-75 (in millions of Bolivian pesos)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

I. Tax Revenue 1.050.4 1,051.4 1,292.9 2,375m5 5,015.9 5,481.6

A. Taxes on income and property 160.8 209.9 219.2 310.8 468.4 577.0 1. Taxes on income 143.0 181.1 191.0 243.0 398.0 531.9 a. Business profits (54.5) (72.8) (54.9) (82.9) (182.0) (199.9) b. Personal remunerations (44.1) (59.2) (89.0) (100.8) (147.4) (231.4) c. Rental income (11.8) (12.7) (15.6) (16.7) (15.3) (26.6) d. Capital income (5.5) (6.7) (7.7) (9.5) (10.8) (23.1) e. Global complementary income (22.4) (24.4) (19.4) (26.8) (33.6) (32.8) f. Capital gains (1.4) (1.3) (1.6) (2.9) (4.0) (5.0) g. Other (3.3) (4.0) (2.8) (3.4) (4.9) (13.1) 2. Taxes on property 17.8 28.8 28.2 32.0 38.0 43.4 3. Revaluation of assets - - - 35.8 32.4 1.7

B. Taxes on production, consumption and domestic transactions 249.8 347.6 436.9 798.2 1,688.0 1.987.5 1. Sales tax on goods and services 64.3 77.9 127.2 147.2 226.9 306.6 2. Excise taxes 103.6 111.5 122.7 188.1 236.3 284.2 3. Stamp duties 43.0 46.2 53.2 75.3 117.0 161.9 4. Motor vehicle taxes 8.4 9.6 16.5 22.7 33.1 58.2 5. Production tax on YPFB 2.7 53.5 68.9 278.6 883.3 819.9 6. Taxes on credit 17.0 21.5 21.9 31.4 43.3 49.8 7. Tax on sugar consumption - - - - 131.8 214.9 8. Other 10.8 27.4 26.5 54.9 16.3 92.0

C. Taxes on foreign trade 631.3 464.0 636.8 1.260.3 2,836.7 27 1. Taxes on exports 174.2 47.5 182.1 642.9 1,704.8 1,120.8 a. Small mining royalties (172.4) (44.]) (39.1) (156.6) (371.4) (199.6) b. Medium mining royaltiess (/ c. Agricultural exports (1.8) (3.4) (4.0) (5.8) (0.5) (20,3)- d. COMIBOL royalties (-) (-) (-) (28.3) (531.9) (278.7) e. Ad valorem export tax (-) (-) (139.0) (452.2) (801.0) (622.2) 2. Taxes on imports 418.0 377.1 418.2 517.4 947.3 1,552.4 a. Import duties (326.9) (298.2) (350.1) (517.4) (947.3) (1,549.9) b. 10 percent surcharge (73.8) (67.8) (68.1) (-) (-) (-) c. other custom charges (17.3) (11.1) (-) (-) (-) (2.5) 3. 1.6 percent on exchange sales 39.1 39.4 36.5 100.0 184.6 243.6

D. Tax amnesty 'and tax due from previous years 8.5 29.9 - 6.2 22.8 0.3

II. Non-tax revenues 301.7 337.2 3.)-3 h62.5 782.b 1.029.0 1. Postal and communication fees 8.4B.I 7.9 '3 .T5 11.2 2. Consular fees 6.8 6.5 11.7 17.4 20.6 100.7 3. Fees collected by Ministries 61.1 50.4 59.3 57.1 220.0 304.0 4. Revenues of Decentralized Agencies 220.8 225.1 251.9 356.o 508.6 56b.4 5. Other L.6 27.0 17.5 22.0 25.2 b8.8 TOTAL 1,352.1 1,368.7 1,6S1.2 3.836.0 5,798.3 6,51C.7

Note: The term "Internal Revenue" used by the Treasury includes the following:

Internal Revenue 399.3 511.7 565.3 769.4 1,088.4 1,478.5 A. Taxes on income and property (excluding revaluation of assets) 160.8 209.9 219.2 275.0 436.0 575.3

B. Indirect taxes on domestic transactions (excluding the production tax on YPFB, the tax on sugar and taxes on credit) 230.0 271.9 346.1 488.2 629.6 902.9

C. Tax amnesty 8.5 29.9 - 6.2 22.8 0.3

1/ Consists of export taxes of rice and cotton.

Source: Ministry of Finance, office of Internal Revenue and General Treasury of the Nation. Table 5.7: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURES, 1970-75

(b$ Millions)

Estimated 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

T 0 T A L l/ 1,356.5 1,564.8 1,901.9 2,843.8 4,907.4 5,830.7 I. Wages and Salaries 873.5 1,017.1 1,219.6 1,752.5 2,587 3 2,993.9 1. Treasury Operations 765.3 866.6 1,077.2 1,546.3 2,213.7 2,606.9 o/w: Military (112.6) (102.3) (153.3) (242.9) (409.3) (530.0) 2. Other Accounts -- 20.0 10.2 21.1 39.2 61.2 3. Decentralized Agencies 108.2 130.5 132.2 185.1 334.4 325.8 a. CONAVI (7.7) (9.9) 11.6) (13.2) (13.2) (13.2) b. CNSS (76.1) (90.4) (88.1) (131.7) (213.6) (228.1) c. SNC (24.4) (30.2) (32.5) (40.2) (107.6) (84.5)

II. Goods and Services 199.3 233.3 321.0 582.7 737.4 1,156.6 1. Treasury Operations 118.3 139.1 198.9 440.1 531.9 931.2 o/w: Military (79.1) (75.5) (118.6) (277.8) (429.5) (706.0) 2. Other Accounts 10.4 20.0 26.0 18.7 59.8 54.2 3. Decentralized Agencies 70.6 74.2 96.1 133.9 145.7 171.2 a. CONAVI (2.9) (3.1) (2.8) (3.1) (3.2) (3.2) b. CNSS (33.8) (37.4) (44.7) (53.6) (96.3) (80.5) c. SNC (33.9) (33.7) (48.6) (67.2) (46.2) (87.5)

III. Current Transfers 221.7 220.6 267.4 363.7 1,420.8 1,453.6 A. To Private Sector 120.0 165.3 208.,' 269.1 567.3 534.2 1. Treasury Operations (47.7) (86.1) (117.1) (134.0) (367.6) (275.0) 2. Other Accounts (--) (1.0) (2.6) (1.1) (2.4) (3.2) 3. Decentralized Agencies (74.3) (78.2) (89.0) (134.0) (197.3) (256.0) o/w: CNSS (74.3) (78.2) (89.0)) (134.0) (197.3 (256.0) B. To Rest of Public Sector 98.9 52.9 51.2 81.4 834.7 2/ 858.9 3/ 1. Treasury Operations (98.6) (51.3) (47.0) (77.9) (826.3) (850.8) 2. Other Accounts (--) (1.0) (3.5) (1.2) (3.9) (3.5) 3. Decentralized Agencies (0.3) (0.6) (0.7) (2.3) (4.5) (4.6) C. To International Organizations 2.8 2.4 7.5 13.2 18.8 60.5 1. Treasury Operations (2.8) (1.4) (6.0) (11.7) (15.6) (56.2) 2. Other Accounts (--) (1.0) (1.5) (1.5) (3.2) (4.3) 3. Decentralized Agencies (--) (--) (--l (--) (--) (--)

IV. Interest on Public Debt 62.0 88.3 87.9 144.9 161.9 225.9 A. Internal 16.0 21.2 18.3 22.6 18.4 35.5 1. Treasury Operations (14.7) (18.8) (16.') (20.0) (10.5) (31.4) 2. Other Accounts (--) (1.0) (0.9) (7.6) (2.6) 3. Decentralized Agencies (1.3) (1.4) (1.4) (1.7) (0.3) (1.5) B. External 46.0 67.1 69.6 122.3 143.5 190.4 1. Treasury Operations (41.5) (64.5) (67.2) (119.3) (139.0) (180.2) 2. Other Accounts (2.7) (0.5) (--) (0.3) (1.9) (1.0) 3. Decentralized Agencies (1.8) (2.1) (2.4) (2.7) (2.6) (9.2)

V. Other Expenditures -- 5.5 6.0 _ -- 0.7 1. Treasury Operations -- -- 4.0 -- 0.7 2. Other Accounts -- 5.5 2.0) -_ 3. Decentalized Agencies ------

1/ Including contributions to CNSS (Social Security) and CONAVI (National Housing Council)

2/ Includes transfers to COMIBOL of 228.3 million pesos and 12 million pesos to Banco Agricola (Caneres)

3/ Includes transfers to COMIBOL at 53.07 million pesos

Source: Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, and Mission Estimates. Table 5.8: TREASURY CASH OPERATIONS, 1970-75 (in millions of Bolivian pesos)

Estimated 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

I. Current Revenue 1,70.2 1,093.2 1330.0 2424.9 5,069.7 5,642.3 1. Internal revenue 399.3 511.7 565.3 769.4 1,088.4 1,478.5 Q. C:istoms dtuties 418.0 377.1 '.18.2 517.4 947.3 1,552.4 3. Export duties (regalias) 174.2 47.5 43.1 162.4 371.9 199.6 4. 1,6% tax on exchange sales 39.1 39.4 36.5 100.0 184.6 243.6 5. Taxes on credit 17.0 21.5 21.9 31.4 43.3 49.8 6. Postal and,communication fees 8.4 8.3 7.9 10.0 8.0 11.2 7. Consular fees 6.8 6.5 11.7 17.4 20.6 100.7 8. Transfers from COMIBOL (regalias) - - - 28.3 531.9 278.7 9. Transfers from YPFB (production tax) 2.7 53.5 68.9 278.6 883.3 819.9 10. Ad valorem export tax - - 139.0 452.2 801.0 622.2 11. Revaluation of assets tax - - - 35.8 32.4 1.7 12. Tax on sugar consumption - - - - 131.8 214.9 13. Tax on rice and cotton exports - - - - - 20.3 14. Other revenues 4.7 27.7 17.5 22.0 25.2 48.8

II. Current Expenditures 1,131.3 1,267.5 1,602.9 2,492.5 4,391.1 5,280.2 1. Personal sevices 652.7 764.3 923.9 1,303.4 1,904.4 2,276.9 a) Wages and salaries (623.4) (735.5) (883.0) (1,235.0) (1,79fl.6) (2,155.3) b) Contributions to CNSS and CONAVI (29.3) (28.8) (40.9) (68.4) (113.8) (121.6) 2. Military outlays 191.7 177,8 271.9 520.7 838.8 1,236.0 a)Wages and salaries (112.6) (102.3) (153.3) , (242.9) (409.3) (530.0) b)Goods and services (79.1) (75.5) (118.6) (277,8) (429.5) (706.0) 3. Other goods and services3/ 83.6 103.3 148.9 305.5 288.9 373.0 4. Current Transfers 147.1 138.8 170.1 223.6 1,209.5 1,182.0 a) to private sector (45.7) (86.1) (117.1) (134.0) (367.6) (275.0) b) to public sector (98.6) (51.3) (47.0) (77.9) (326.3)1/ (850.8)2/ c) to international organizations (2.8) (1.4) (6.0) (11.7) (15.6) (56.2) 5. Interest payments 56.2 83.3 84.1 139.3 149.5 211.6 a)Internal debt (14.7) (18.8) (16.9) 20.0 (10.5) (31.4) b) External debt (41.5) (64.5) (67.2) 119,3 (139.0) (180.2) i. Central government (38.4) (58.2) (57.3) (101.7) (105.7) (131.7) ii, Or:behalf of public enterprises (3.1) (6.3) (9.9) (17.6) (33.3) (48.5) Other - - 4.0 - - 0.7

III. Current Account Surplus/Deficit -61.1 -174.3 -272.9 -67.7 678.6 362.1 IV. Other Reveniue 3.7 4.9 16.9 6.2 - 23.1

V. Investment Expenditure 33.3 52,2 168.2 185.4 353.8 716.1 1. Capital formation 18.3 13.8 95.8 72.1 107.4 227.0 2. Capital transfers 15.0 38.4 72.4 113.3 246.4 489.1

VI. Overall surplus/deficit -90.7 -221.6 -424.2 -246.8 324,8 -330.9

VII. Financing 90.7 221.6 424.2 246.8 -324.8 330.9 1. External -72.1 -24.2 -42.9 -77 -.2 --249 -_79-6 a) Drawings (0.5) (19.7) (82.7) (44.5) (-) (-) I. Emergency plan (-) (19.7) (82.7) (44.5) (_) (-) ii. Other (0. 5) (j () )()() b) Amortization (-72.6) (-74.6) (-125.6) (-165.8) (-249.5) (-287.4) c) Changes in long-term foreign assests (-) (30.7) (-) (44.1) (-) (6.8) 2. Internal 162.8 245.8 467.1 324.0 -75.3 611.5 a) Centrel 3ank (net) (127.5) (245.2) (482.1) (310.0) ( 52.3) >550.6) i . r (122.4) (250.7) (479.8) (416,8) (34.5) (479.0) ii. Deposits (increase) (5.1) (-5.5) (2.3) (-106.8) (17,8) (71.6) b) Loans from Bolivian owned counterpart funds (18.0 (18.5) (28.4) (31.0) (101.2) (117.7) c) Atiortization (-11.6) (-25.3) (-43.3) (-28.9) (-62.2) (-54.0) d) Other (28.9) (7.4) (-0.1) (11.9) (-166.6) (-2.8) e) Unfinanced gap (-) (-) (-) (-) (-

Memorandum item: floating Change in floating debt .. 41.7 54.8 52.5 83.5 53.5 Payments postponed to following year (67.0) (108.7) (163.5) (216.0) (299.5) 353.0 Payments on previous years obligations (..) (-67.0) (-108.7) (-163.5) (-216.0) -299.5

1/ Includes transfers to COMIBOL of 228.3 million pesos and 12 million pesos to Banco Agricola (Caneres) 2/ Includes transfers to COMIBOT. of 53.07 million pesos 3/ Estimated. Includes transfers to Tecentralized Agencies Source: Mistry of Finance, Central Bank and Mission estimates. Page 1 of 3

Table 5.9: DECENTRALIZED AGENCIES - REVENUE AND EXPENDITURES, 1970-76 (in millions of Bolivian pesos) NATIONAL HOUSING COUNCIL - CONAVI

&.' AUL Estimated B 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 197o

I. Own current revenues 11.8 10.7? 13.8 1]4 .8 17.3 17.8 18.8 1. Sale of goods and services o.7 4.3 3.7 5. 8.*3 -*. 9.3 2. Other current revenues 5.1 6.4 10.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.5

1I. Direct current expenditures 12.4 15.1 16.8 19.0 19.0 19.0 21.4 1. Hemuneration 7.1 9 .7 1 12.0 12.0 1T4. 2. Purchases of goods and services 2.9 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.5 3. Interest payments a. external debt 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 b. domestic debt 4. ,urrent transfers to private ------sector 5. S,ocial security contributions 0.o 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4

IIIa. Savings generated -0.6' -4.4 -4.0 -4.2 -1.7 -1.2 -2.6

IIIb. ,urrent public sector transfers - _ _ 2.4 4.6 2.0 4.0 (net) 1. Transfer revenues a. from central government - - - 2.4 4.6 2.0 4.0 b. from rest of public sector ------

IIIc. Current account surplus/deficit -o.6 -4.4 -3.0 -1.8 2.9 0.8 1.4

IV. Other revenues --

V. Capital expenditures 0.2

VI. Overall surplus/deficit -0.6 -4.4 -3.0 -1.8 2.9 0.6 1.4

VII. Long-term financing 0.7 -8.9 -41.7 -6.2 -5.2 -13.2 -C.6 1. Loans granted -12.0 -19.4 -51.o -125 -1.0 -9.0 -7 a. disbursements made (-15.0) (-24.0) (-56.0) (-19.0) (-8.0) (-16.0) (-15.0) b. amortization received (40.) (h.6) (4.2) (6.5) (7.0) (7.0) (7.2) 2. Loans received foreifgn 11.7 1(.5 10.1 6.3 -4.2 -4.2 7.2 1. used furnds (13.2) (12.0) (11.6) (12.1) (_) (_) (11-5) ii. amortization payments (-1.5) (-1.5) (-1.5) (-5.8) (-4-2) (-4.2) (-4.3)

VIII. Short-term financing and -0.1 13.3 44.7 8.0 2.3 12.6 -0.8 cash balances

Source: Page 2 of 3

NATIONAL SOCIAL SECURITY - CNSS

A C T U A L BUDGET 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

I. Own Current Revenues 202.8 208,1 221.4 332.6 481.2 533.7 389.4

1. Contributions 195.8 204.3 217.0 328.3 476.7 528.8 384.9 2. Other current revenues 7.0 3.8 4.4 4.3 4*5 4.9 4.5

II. Direct Current Expenditures 184.3 206.1 221.9 319 7 507.4 564 6 381,3

lo Remuneration 59.8 71.4 73,9 117.4 191.2 205,0 123.3 2, Purchases of goods and services 33.8 37.4 44.7 53,6 96.3 80.5 62.1 3, Interest payments (O.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4) (0.2) - (0.6) a. external debt b. domestic debt 4. Current transfers to private 74.3 78.2 89.0 134.0 197.3 256.0 180.6 sector 5. Social security contributions 16.3 19.0 14.2 14.3 22.4 23L1 14.7

IIIa. Savings Generated 18^5 :2S0L5 12.9 -26 2 -30,9 8 1

IIIb. Current Public Sector Transfers -0.3 -0-6 -0.7 -2X3 -2X5 -3,3 -2.5 (net) 1. Transfer revenues - - - 2. Transfer expenditures./ 0.3 0.6 0.7 2.3 2.5 3.3 2.5

lIIc.. Current Account Surplus/Deficit 18,2 1.4 -1.2 10.6 -28.7 -34.2 5.6

IV. Other Revenues - - - - _ - -

V. Capital Expenditures 4.3 2,5 3,0 3,0 10 23,3 8.0 1. Capital transfers to public ------sector

2. Fixed capital formation - - - - - 18.8 -

3. Financial investment 4,3 2.5 3.0 3.0 1.0 4.5 a, buildings, land, etc, (4e3) (2.5) (3.0) (3.0) (1.0) (oo) 8,0 b. government bonds (net) (-)(-) (-) (-) (-) c. other public securities (net) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) d. other investment (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (.X.)

VI. Overall Surplus/Deficit 13.9 -1.1 -4 2 7.6 -29.7 -57.5 -2,4

VII. Long-Term Financing 4.2 2.3 4.1 2 3 2.4 1.3 2.0 1. Loans granted 4.2 2.3 4.1 2,3 2,4 1.3 2.0 a. disbursements made (-1.1) (-2,3) (-0,6) (-2.5) (-2,5) (-4.5) (-3,0) b. amortization received (5.3) (4.6) (4,7) (4.8) (4.9) (5.8) (5.0)

2. Loans received a. foreign i. used funds ii. amortization payments b. domestic -10.0 i. used funds C-) ii. amortization payments (-10.0)

VIII. Short-Term Financing and -18,1 -1.2 0.1 -_9. 27.3 56.2 0,4 Cash Balances

1/ Current transfers to the rest of the public sector.

Source: CNSS; Ministry of Finance. Page 3 of 3

NATIONAL ROAD SERVICE - SNC

A C T U A L Estimated Budget

1970 1971 1972 19,3 1974 1975 1976

I. Own current revenues 6.2. 6.3 16.7 8.6 10.1 12.9 15.3 1. Sale of goods and services 5.5 5.8 6.3 6.8 8.5 11.4 13.7 2. Other current revenues 0.7 0.5 10.4 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6

II. Direct current expenditures 59,5 65.2 82.4 108.7 153.9 180.1 234.8 1. Remuneration 24.4 30.2 32.5 -Tl7 77.7 84.5 88.0 2. Purchases of goods and services 33.9 33.7 48.6 67.2 46.2 87.5 130.6 3. Interest payments 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.1 8.1 16,2 a. external debt (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (6.6) (14.6) b. domestic debt (1.2) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (0.1) (1.5) (1.6) 4. Current transfers to private sector _ _ _ _- _ 5. Social sscurity contributions - - - - 29.9 - -

Illa. Savings generated -53.3 -58.9 -65.7 -100.1 -143.8 -167.2 -219.5

IlIb. Current public sector transfers (net) 44.4 39.7 68.6 140.8 279.9 344.5 550.4 1. Transfer revenues 44.4 39-7 68.6 140,8 281.9 345.8 550.4 a. from central government (44.4) (39.7) (68.6) (140.8) (281.9) (345.8) (550.4) b. fmnm rest of public sector (-) (-) (-) (-*) (-) (-) (-) 2. Transfer expenditures - - . 2.0 1.3 a. direct taxes (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) b. indirect taxes (-) (-) (-) (-) (1.0) (1.3) (-) c. other current transfers to central government(- ) (- () - -(_ d. other current transfers to rest of public sector (-) (-) (-) (-) 1.0) () ()

IIIc. Current account surplus/deficit -8.9 -19.2 2.9 40.7 136.1 177.3 330.9

IV. Other revenues 14.0 10.7 11.1 3.0 3.8 3.1 4.4 1. Capital transfers from public sector 14.0 10.7 11.1 3,0 3.8 3.1 4.4 a. earmarked taxes (14.0) (10.7) (11.1) (3.0) (3.8) (3.1) (4.4) b. from central government (-) (-) (-) (.) (-) (-) (-) c. from rest of public sector (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) 2. Other capital revenues - - - - -

V. Capital expenditures 21.0 20.1 19.3 84.0 139.0 473.8 1167.8 Fixed capital formation 21.0 20.1 19.3 84.0 139.0 473.8 1167.8 a. studies (-) (-) (-) (13.3) (25.8) 25.7 (16.8) b. construction (21.0) (20.0) (19.3) (50.7) (46.9) 324.1 (981.0) c. machinery and equipment (-) (-) (-) (20,0) (66.3) 124.0 (170.0)

VI. Overall surplus/deficit -15.9 -28.6 -5.3 -40.3 0.9 -293.4 -832.5

VII. Long-term financing 14.5 18.1 22.2 46..0 45.8 288.1 829.0 1. Loans received a. foreign 14.5 18.1 22.2 46,0 45.8 288.1 829.0 i. used funds (14.5) (18.1) (22.2) (46.0) (45.8) (293.1) (843.0) ii. amortization payments (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-5.0) (-14.0) b. domestic - - - ' - i. used funds (-) () (-) ( ) (-) (-) (-) ii. amortization payments (-) (-) (-) (..) (-) (-) (-)

VIII. Short-term financing and cash balances 1.4 10.5 -16.9 -5.7 -46.7 5.3 3.5

Source: SNC.

Page 1 of 2

Table 5.10: EXPORT ENTERPRISES REVENUE AND EXPEND'ITURES, 1970-76 (in millions of Bolivian pesos)

MINING CORPORATION - COMIBOL

ACTUAL Budget 1970 1971 1972 1?73 1974 1975 1976

I. Own current revenues 969.2 1018.9 1008.0 2066.5 3869.4 2957.1 3387.3 1. Sale of goods ard services 942.4 909.4 989.3 199L.5 3686.1 2838.9 3327.3 2. Other current revenues 26.8 109.5 18.7 75.0 183.3 118.2 60.0

II. Direct current expenditures 823.4 838.3 937.0 155,3.1 2915.3 3050.0 3277.4 1. Remuneration 189.2 194.3 214.0 28;3.7 502.3 440.9 466.0 2. Purchases of goods and services 512.9 518.1 585.8 1043.5 1632.0 1656.1 1740.0 3. Interest payments 32.1 29.6 32.3 47.6 180.8 165.9 220.0 a. external debt (.) (.) (.) (.) (175.1) (161.1) (211.7) b. domestic debt (.) (.) (.) (.) (5.7) (4.8) (8.3) 4. Current transfers to private sector 89.2 96.3 104.9 178.3 365.1 492.7 482.5 5. Social security contributions - - - - 235.1 294.4 368.9

IlIa. Savings generated 145.8 180.6 71.0 508.4 954.1 -92.9 109.9

IlIb. Current public sector transfers (net) -52.9 -29.2 -55.2 -363.3 -1115.1 -703.9 -630.7 1. Transfer revenues - - - - 93.4 205.9 209.5 a. from central government (-) (-) (-) (-) (93.4) (205.9) (209.5) b. from rest of public sector (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) 2. Transfer expenditures 52.9 29.2 55.2 363.3 1208.5 909.8 840.2 a. Income tax (2.9) (2.1) (5.4) (11.3) (15.7) (16.5) ( .) b. Regalias (20.5) (10.7) (11.8) (86.0) (967.9) (604.0) ( .) c. Advalorem export tax (-)( -) (33.4) (223.7) (301.6) (210.8) ( .) d. Import duties (29.5) (14.6) (4.7) (38.7) (58.1) (62.8), ( e. Tax on exchange sales (-) (1.8) (-) (3.6) (3.8) (15.7) ( .) f. Other current transfers to central government (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) g. Other current transfers (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)

IlIc. Current account/surplus deficit 92.9 151,4 15.8 145.1 -161.0 -796.8 -520.8

IV. Other revenues - - - - 138.5 58.1 50.7 1. Capital transfers from public sector - - - - 138.5 58.1 50.7 a. Earmarked taxes (-) (-) (-) (-) (138.5) (58.1) (50.7) b. from central government (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) c. from rest of public sector (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) 2. Other capital revenues ------

V. Capital expenditures 55.2 62.6 64.6 110.1 20.4 14.1 -

VI. Overall surplus/deficit 37.7 88.8 -48.8 35.0 -42.9 -752.8 -470,1

VII. Long-term financing -104.8 -41.5 111.7 -119.7 159.4 532.5 503.5 1. Loans granted a. disbursements made b. amortization received 2. Loans received a. foreign 85.5 -119.7 174.7 399.6 503.5 i. used funds (132.3) (-) (240.0) (568.2) (935.5) ii. amortization payments -104.8 -70.6 (-46.8) (-119.7) (-65.3) (-168.6) (-432.0) b. domestic -15.3 132.9 i. used funds 29.1 26.2 - (0.6) (150.0) (6.5) ii. amortization payments (-15.9) (-17.1) (-6.5) VIII. Short-term financing and cash balances 67.1 -47.3 -62.9 84.8 116.5 220.3 -33.4

Source: COMIBOL. Page 2 of 2

STATE PETROLEUMENTERPRISE - YPFB

Budget 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

I Own Current Revenues 539.3 686.5 1087.6 1891.8 4747.3 4166.3 4786.6

1. Sale of goods and services 529.3 681.5 1082.6 1881.8 4599.0 4070.7 4768.6 2. Other current revenues 10.0 5.0 5.0 10.0 148.3 95.6 18.0

II Direct Current Expenditures 275.0 262.0 402.0 625.3 1069.0 1172.7 1593.6

1. Renumeration 136.0 168.0 178.0 253.0 271.3 314.5 379.4 2. Purchase of goods and services 102.0 41.0 125.0 170.0 547.9 554.5 678.0 3. Interest payments 9.0 16.0 53.0 113.3 99.2 103.2 269.3 a) external 1/ (9.0) (16.0) (53.0) (108.3) (95.9) (100.0) (266.9) b) domestic (-) (-) (-) (5.0) (3.3) (3.2) (2.4) 4. Current transfers to private sector 4.0 6.0 14.0 32.0 2.6 2.9 4.9 5. Social security contributions 24.0 31.0 32.0 57.0 148.0 197.6 262.0

IlIa Savings Generated 264.3 424.5 685.6 1266.5 3678.3 2993.6 3193.0

IIIb Current Public Sector Transfers (net) -93.1 -132.2 -246.9 -567.0 -1841.9 -1514.3 -1407.5

1. Transfer revenues ------2. Transfer expenditures 93.1 132.2 246.9 567.0 1841.9 1514.3 1407.5 a) direct taxes (40.7) (60.7) (109.7) (290.2) (924.2) (745.3) (583.4) b) indirect taxes (26.9) (30.5) (34.0) (42.5) (71.0) (42.3) (101.9) c) other current transfers to central gov't. (-) (-) (34.1) (66.3) (300.0) (266.8) (208.1) d) other current transfers to rest of public sector (25.5) (41.0) (69.1) (168.0) (546.7) (459.9) (514.1)

IrIc Current Account Surplus/Deficit 171.2 292.3 438.7 699.5 1836.4 1479.3 1785.5

IV Other Revenues 1.0 1.0 - 35.0 107.6 176.0 72.6

1. Capital transfers from public sector - 1.0 - 35.0 107.6 176.0 72.6 a) earmarked taxes (-) (-) (-) (35.0) (107.1) (176.0) (72.6) b) from central gov't. (-) (1.0) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) 2. Other capital revenues 1.0 - - - - -

V Capital Expenditures 364.0 1866.0 524.0 532.0 2109.8 2305.0 3150.0

1. Fixed capital formation 364.0 1866.0 524.0 532.0 2109.8 2305.0 3150.0 a) studies (50.0) (89.0) (332.0) (60.0) ( ) ) ( () b) construction (230.0) (1738.0) (127.0) (332.0) (.) (.) (.) c) machinery and equipment (84.0) (39.0) (65.0) (140.0) (.) (.)

VI Overall Surplus/Deficit -191.8 -1572.7 -85.3 202.5 -165.8 -649.7 -1291.9

VII Long-Term Financing 152.0 1550.0 72.0 -60.1 -351.5 -340.1 1191.4

1. External (net) 1/ 143.0 1553.0 71.0 -137.1 -317.7 -198.1 1207.4 i. used funds (209.0) (1627.0) (341.0) (92.4) (78.0) (255.1) (1708.0) ii. amortization (-66.0) (-74.0) (-270.0) (-229.5) (-395.7) (-453.2) (-500.6) 2. Domestic (net) 9.0 -3.0 1.0 77.0 -33.8 -142.0 -16.0 i. used funds (13.0) (2.0) (9.0) (123.0) (-) (-) (-) ii. amortization (-4.0) (-5.0) (-8.0) (-46.0) (-33.8) (-142.0) (-16.0)

VIII Short-Term Financing &Cash Balances 39.8 22.7 13.3 -142.4 517.3 989.8 100.5

1/ from Central Bank report of External debt

Source: YPFB Page 1 of 3

Table 5.11: OTHER ENTERPRISES' REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES, 1970-1976 (in millions of Bolivian pesos)

DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION - CBF

A C T U A L Estimated Budget

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

I. Own current revenues 169.0 168.6 205.2 412.4 803.0 1415.0 1277.9 1. Sale of goods and services 136.2 142.2 179.4 340.4 712.0 1403.0 2. Other current revenues 32.8 26.4 25.8 72.0 91.0 12.0 .. )

II. Direct current expenditures 125.5 158.4 158.2 344.9 603.0 1129.0 1112.3 1. Renumeration 29.4 28.9 6 102.0 3.0 2. Purchases of goods and services 83.1 102.1 110.7 227.7 468.0 953.0 853.4 3. Interest payments 7.7 20.9 6.2 30.3 33.0 40.0 119.9 a. external debt ( .) (.) (.) (.) (19.0) (26.0) (23.1) b. domestic debt (.) (.) (.) ( ) (14.0) (14.0) (96.8) 4. Current transfers to private sector 1.7 1.0 2.1 - - - - 5. Social security contributions 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 - - - 6. Other-current expenditures 3.2 5.1 4.5 17.9 - - -

Illa. Savings generated 43.5 10.2 47.0 67.5 200.0 286.0 165.6

IlIb. Current public sector transfers (net) -2.4 -4.3 -4.6 - -8.0 -12.0 - 1. Transfer revenues ------a. from central government (-) (-) () (-) (-) (-) (-) b. from rest of public sector (-) (-3 (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) 2. Transfer expenditures 2.4 4.3 4.6 - 8.0 12.0 a. direct taxes (.) (-) (.) (-) (-) (-) (-) b. indirect taxes ( .) (-) (.) (-) () c. other current transfers to central government ( .) (.) (-) (-) (_) (_) (_) d. other current transfers to rest of public sector (2.0) (4.3) (4.0) (-) (8.0) (12.0) (-)

IIIc. Current account surplus/deficit 41.1 5.9 42.4 67.5 192.0 274.0 165.0

IV. Other revenues 13.0 147.2 129.1 53.0 18.0 84.0 - 1. Capital transfers from public sector 10.0 125.1 105.6 15.9 9.0 36.0 a. Earmarked taxes (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) b. from central government (10.0) (125.1) (105.6) (15.9) (9.0) (36.0) (-) c. from rest of public sector (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) 2. Other capital revenues 3.0 22.1 23.5 37.1 9.0 48.0 -

V. Capital Expenditures 169.3 269.3 246.3 326.5 395.0 1032.0 710.7 1. Capital transfers to public sector 9.7 102.4 98.9 - 5.0 8.0 ... a. to central government -) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) ) b. to rest of public sector (9.7) (102.4) (98.9 ) (5.0) (8.0) ( ) 2. Fixed capital formation 82.7 120.0 62.2 326.5 162.0 523.0 ... a. studies (-) (_ ) (_) (3.6) ) (-) (-) ( b. construction (16.1) (22.6) (15.5) (17.8) (103.0) (401.0) ( ) c. machinery and equipment (66.6) (97.4) (46.7) (305.1) (59.0) (122.0) 3. Financial investment 76.9 46.9 85.2 _ 228.0 501.0 a. buildings, land, etc. (-) C-) (-) (-) (-) (-) b. government bonds (net) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) C...) c. other public securities (-) (-) (-) (-) (_) (_) (net) d. purchase of reproducing (_) (_) (_) C-) (_) (-) C...) cattle e. other investment (76.9) (46.9) (85.2) (-) (228.0) (501.0)

VI. Overall Surplus/Deficit -115.2 -116.2 -74.8 -206 .0 -185.0 -674.0 -545.1

VII. Long-Term Financing 122.6 101.1 88.4 307.7 308.0 474.0 246.2 1. Loans granted to private - - - 48.1 - - - sector a. disbursements made (_) (_) (-) (48.1) (-) (-) (-) b. amortization received (_) (-) (_) (_) () (.j 2. Loans received 122.6 101.1 88.4 259.6 308.0 474.0 246.2 a. foreign 123.2 86.7 83.5 184.2 228.0 404.0 307.5 i. used funds (144.0) (95.9) (113.1) (252.8) (311.0) (472.0) (419.3) ii. amortization payments (-20.8) (-9.2) (-29.6) (-68.6) (-83.0) (-68.0) (-111.8) b. domestic -0.6 14.4 4.9 75.4 80.0 70.0 -61.3 i. used funds (18.6) (32.8) (38.1) (114.8) (195.0) (165.0) (191.8) ii. amortization payments (-19.2) (-18.4) (-33.2) (-39.4) (-115.0) (-95.0) (-253.1)

VIII. Short-Term Financing and Cash Balances -7.4 15.1 -13.6 -101.7 -123.0 200.0 298.9

Source: Corporacion Boliviana de Fomento. Page 2 of 3

NATIONAL ELECTRICITY COMPANY - ENDE

A C T U A L Estimated Budget 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 -- 7-T - -1W7

I. Own current revenue 22.3 26.0 38.1 59.8 80.1 106.2 156.1 1. Sale of goods and services 22.9 25.5 37.5 59.1 79.2 105.2 154.9 2. Other current revenues 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2

II. Direct current expenditures 11.3 12.0 12.2 21.5 36.5 47.8 62.6 1. General and Administrative 2.3 3.2 3.9 5.6 8.1 9.2 ... 2. Operating and Maintenance 6.0 3.5 1.9 4.2 8.3 9.7 ... 3. Interest payments 1.4 1.9 2.3 5.8 13.7 17.7 22.9 a. external debt (-) (-) (-) (-) (13.7) (17.7) (22.9) b. domestic debt (1.4) (1.9) (2.3) (5.8) (-) (-) (-) 4. Fuel 1.4 1.3 1.6 2.7 3.7 6.5 ... 5. Others (includes transfers to private sector) 0.2 2.1 2.5 3.2 2.7 4.7 5.9

IIIa. Savings generated 12.0 14.0 25.9 38.3 43.6 58.4 93.5

IlIb. Current public sector transfers (net) -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 -2.0 1. Transfer revenues a. from central government b. from rest of public sector 2. Transfer expenditures a. direct taxes ) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 2.0 b. indirect taxes c. other current transfers to central government d. other current transfers to rest of public sector

IIlc. Current account surplus/deficit 11.6 13.5 25.3 37.6 42.7 57.4 92.5

IV. Other revenues 2.6 2.5 2.8 6.2 6.4 7.0 6.0 1. Capital transfers from public sector a. Earmarked taxes b. from central government c. from rest of public sector 2. Other capital revenues 2.6 2.5 2.8 6.2 6.4 7.0 6.0

V. Capital expenditures 1/ 70.0 80.5 77.2 125.7 148.8 225.9 410.1 1. Capital transfers to international organizations 0.5 2.9 5.1 9.4 5.8 6.9 23.7 2. Fixed capital formation 66.9 75.9 70.0 104.3 133.5 211.7 368.0 a. studies (3.6) (5.7) (4.2) (7.3) (21.3) (27.1) ... b. construction (31.5) (63.6) (64.4) (94.3) (107.7) (179.8) (.) c. machinery & equipment (31.8) (6.6) (1.4) (2.7) (4.5) 4,8 (.) 3. Financial investment 2.6 1.7 2,1 12.0 9.5 7.3 18.4

VI. Overall surplus/deficit -55.8 -64.5 -49.1 -81.9 -99.7 -161.5 -311.6

VII. Long-term financing 42.0 55.2 45.8 68.6 96.7 140.8 214.0 1. Loans granted a. disbursements made b. amortization received 2. Loans received a. foreign 2/ 42.0 55.2 45.8 68.6 96.7 140.8 214.0 i. used funds - (44.2) (57.6) (49.7) (77.0) (103.8) (150.6) (229.9) ii. amortization payments (-2.2) (-2.4) (-3.9) (-8.4) (-7.1) (-9.8) (-15.9)

VTII. Short-term financing and cash balances 13.8 9.3 3.3 13.3 3.0 20.7 97.6

1/ Estimated frDm Balance Sheets.

2/ Classified as "Long Term Debt".

Source: ENDE Page 3 of 3

NATIONAL RAILWAYS - ENFE

A C T U A L Estimated Budget

1970 1971 1972 197:3 1974 1975 1976

I. Own current revenue 144 146 161 208 292 579 587 1. Sale of goods and services 139 142 160 194 288 565 585 2. Other current revenues 5 4 1 14 4 14 2

II. Direct current expenditures 151 175 184 255 351 450 499 1. Renumeration 82 92 102 136 212 261 271 2. Purchases of goods and services 51 59 63 77 70 107 101 3. Interest payments 6 5 6 6 6 12 54 a. external debt (6) (5) (6) (6) (6) (7) (49) b. domestic debt (-) (-) (-) C-) (-) (5) (5) 4. Current transfers to private sector 2 9 3 6 33 30 5. Social security contributions 10 10 10 30 32 37 43

IlIa. Savings generated -7 -29 -23 -47 -59 129 88

IlIb. Current public sector transfers (net) 7 15 16 52 65 -6 -9 1. Transfer revenues 8 16 18 54 69 - 40 a. from central government (8) (16) (18) (54) (69) (-) (-) b. from rest of public sector (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (40) 2. Transfer expenditures 1 1 2 2 4 6 49 a. direct taxes (-) (.-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) b. indirect taxes (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) (4) (6) c. other current transfers to central government (-) (-) (-) (_) C_) () C- d. other current transfers to rest of public sector (-) (-) (-) (-) (1) (2) (43)

IIIc. Current account surplus/deficit - -14 -7 5 6 123 79

IV. Other revenues 12 18 23 26 27 38 197 1. Capital transfers from public sector 12 18 23 26 20 38 93 a. Earmarked taxes (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) b. from central government (12) (18) (23) (26) (20) (38) (93)

c. from rest of public sector (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) 2. Other capital revenues - - - - 7 - 104

V. Capital expenditures 3 1 5 8 10 52 95 Fixed capital formation 3 1 5 8 10 52 95 a. studies (-) (-) ((-) -) (-) (-) b. construction (1) (1) (-) (7) (8) (51) (93) c. machinery and equipment (2) (-) (5) (1) (2) (1) (2)

VI. Overall surplus/deficit 9 3 11 23 23 109 181

VII. Long-term financing -21 -21 -49 -40 -60 -66 -181 Loans received a. foreign -15 -15 -18 - -20 -20 -22 i. used funds (-) (-) (-) (20)1/ (-) (-) (-) ii. amortization payments (-15) (-15) (-18) (-20:) (-20) (-20) (-22) b. domestic -6 -6 -31 -40 -40 -46 -159 i. used funds (-) ( -) (-) (-) (-) ii. amortization payments (-6) (-6) (-31) (-401) (-40) (-46) (-159)

VIII. Short-term financing and cash balances 12 18 38 17 37 -43 0

1/ Appraisal Report No. PTR-IIIa (projections).

Source: ENFE

Page 1 of 2

Table 5.12: MLUNICIPALITIES REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES, 1970-76 (in millions of Bolivian pesos)

MUNICIPALITY OF LA PAZ

A C T U A L Estimated Budget 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

I, Own current revenues 70.7 72.9 88.5 112.3 130.5 139.3 165.0 1. Tax revenue 68.8 69.5 82.6 100.7 122.5 121.1 140.6 a. sales tax (2%) (27.9) (28.4) (33.8) (46.1) (66.2) (57.0) () b. municipal taxes (taxes on consumption of drinking water, electricity, telephone services; and excise taxes on alcoholic beverages and tobacco products) (19.1) (18.6) (22.2) (24.6) (27.7) (28.6) ( ) c. license fees (6.5) (7.5) (9.8) 12.3) (11.9) (13.9) ( ) d. other fees (15.3) (15.0) (16.8) (17.7) (16.7) (21.6) ( . 2. Other current revenues 1.9 3.4 5.9 11.6 8.0 18.2 24.4

II. Direct current expenditures 48.3 51.0 63.6 78.3 107.6 136.2 126.3 1. Remuneration 35.6 36.6 41.7 54.8 82.7 95.9 89.6 2. Purchases of goods ard services 10.9 11.4 15.4 15.0 21.3 27.3 24.0 3. Interest payments - - - - 2,0 5.7 a. external debt (-) (-) (-) (-) (1.9) (5.4) 1.5 b. domestic debt (-) (-) (-) (-) (0.1) (0.3) 4. Current transfers to private sector - 1.1 1.9 2.1 1.6 7.3 2.0 5. Social security contributions 1.8 1.9 4.6 6.4 - - 9.2

IIIa. Savings generated 22.4 21.9 24.9 34.0 22.9 3.1 38.7

IlIb. Current public sector transfers (net) -1.2 -0.5 0.8 2.5 19.6 20.7 22.0 1. Transfer revenues 0.3 0.7 0.9 4.1 21.3 22.5 22.5 a. from central government (-) (0.5) (0.5) (3.8) (21.0) (21.0) (21.6) b. from rest of public sector (0.3) (0.2) (0.4) (0.3) (0.3) (1.5) (0.9) 2. Transfer expenditures a. direct taxes b. indirect taxes c. other current transfers to central government d. other current transfers to rest of public sector 1.5 1.2 0.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 0.5

IITc. Current account surplus/deficit 21.2 21.4 25.7 36.5 42.5 23.8 60.7

Tl'. Other revenues __-_-_

V. Capital expenditures 22.2 13.5 31.6 34.7 43.0 68.8 43.3 1. Capital transfers to public sector ------2. Fixed capital formation 22.2 13.5 31.6 34.7 43.0 68.8 a. studies () () () ()-)-)1.8 b. construction (22.2) 13.5 31.6 34.7 (4L.2) (65.9) 40.0 c. machinery and equipment (-) (-) (-) (-) (1.8) (2.9) 1.5 3. Financial investment ------

VI. Overall surplus/deficit -1.0 7.9 -5.9 1.8 -0.5 -45.0 17.4

VII. Long-term financing - - 20.0 - 34.7 -13.0 -4.6 1. Loans granted a. disbursements made b. amortization received 2. Loans received a. foreign 36.0 -4.8 i. used funds 20.0 (39.7) (-) ii. amortization payments (-3.7) (-4.8) -3.2 b. domestic -1.3 -8.2 i. used funds (-) (2.0) ii. amortization payments (-1.3) (-10.2) -1.4

VIII. Short-run financing and cash balances 1.0 -7.9 -14.1 -1.8 -34.2 58.0 -12.8

Source: Municipality of La Paz Page 2 of 2

MUNICIPALITY OF SANTA CRUZ

A T U A L Budget 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974L i975 i5176

I. Own current revenues 9 10.6 12.2 20.7 3 .9 53 7 1. Tax revenue 6.4 5.8 13.7 3.3 a. direct and indirect (4.3) (5-8) (5-9) (12.9) (10.0) (13-7) (14.1) b. license fees (1.5) (-) (0.6) (0.8) (16.5) (21.9) (32.5) c. other (O.6) (-(-(-() () () 2. Other current revenues 2.9 4.8 5.7 6.5 9.4 17.6 7.1

II. Direct current exoenditures 4.0 7.0 8.9 11.4 18.0 29.0 32.0 1. Remuneration 2.2 7 T3 4 27 27.0 2. Purchases of goods and services 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.5 3. Interest oayments ------a. external debt b. domestic debt 4. current transfers to private 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.114 0.4 0.5 sector 5. Social security contributionsl/ ------

IIIa. Savir.gs generated 5.3 3.6 3.3 9.3 17.9 24.2 21.7

IIIb. 3urrent public sector transfers -1.0 -1.2 -1.5 -3.4 -4.7 -5.0 -6.0 (net) 1. Tr-ansfer revenues ------2. TransOer expenditures2/ 1.0 1.2 1.5 3.4 4.7 5.0 6.0

IlIc. 3'crrent account surplus/deficit 4.3 2.4 1.8 5.9 13.2 19.2 15.7

IV. Other revenues ------

V. Caoital experditures 2.5 3.5 2.0 3.6 7.0 9.0 10.0 1. &aoital transfers to public ------sector 2. -ixed capital fonoation 2.5 3.5 2.0 3.6 7.0 9.0 10.0

VI. Overall surplus/deficit 1.8 -1.1 -0.2 2.3 6.2 10.2 5.7

VII. Long-cerm financing -o.6 -0.3 -0.3 -1.0 -0.5 1.8 -1.4 1. Loans granted ------2. Loans received - - a. domestic 1.8 -1.4 i. used funds (-) () () (.) (.) (2.8) ii. amortization payments (-0.6) (-0*3) (-O.3) (-1.O) (-0.5) (-1.O) (-1.4)

VIII. Short-term financing and cash -1.2 1.4 0.5 -1.3 -5.7 -12.0 -4.3 balances

1/ Included among IIIb. 2.d.

2/ Transfers to rest of public sector.

Source: Municipality of Santa Cruz. Table 5.13: PUBLIC SECTOR TRANSFER PAYMENTS TO/FROM CENTRAL GOVERNMENT, 1970-75 (in millions of $b)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

CURRENT TRANSFERS From: Central Government (Treasury) 189.6 158.8 180.2 283.4 826.5 850.8

To: Decentralized Institutions 91.01/ 107.5 133.2 205.5 511.4 528.4 Rest of Public Sector 98.6 51.3 47.0 77.9 315.02/ 322.43

CAPITAL TRANSFERS From: Central Government 21.8 52.7 99.6 196.8 328.5 589.1 Treasury (15.0) (38.4) (72.4) (113.3) (246.4) (489.1) Other Accounts (6.8) (14.3) (27.2) (83.5) (82.1) (100.0)

To: Rest of Public Sector 21.8 52.7 99.65 196.8 328.5 589.1

TOTAL TRANSFER PAYMENTS 211.4 211.5 279.3 480.2 1,154.8 L1239.9 From: Central Government 211.4 211.5 279.8 480.2 1,154.8 1,439.9

To: Rest of Public Sector National Road Service (SNC) 44.4 39.7 68.6 140.8 281.9 345.8 National Railway (ENFE) 20.0 34.0 41.0 80.0 89.0 38.0 Other Decentralized Institutions, Universities, Local Governments and Public Enterprises 147.0 137.8 170.2 259.4 783.9 1,056.1

TAX PAYMENTS From: Rest of Public Sector 36.5 73.5 149.:L 653.2 2,098,3 1,676,2

To: Treasury

Export Enterprises 35.1 72.0 146.3 650.5 2,094.4 1.671.2 COMIBOL 32.4 18.5 43.5 305.6 911.1 584.5 a, Income Tax (2.9) (2.1) (5.4) (11.3) (15.7) (16.5) b. Regalias (-) (-) (-) (28.3) (531.9) (278.7) c. Ad valorem export tax (-) (-) (33.4) (223.7) (301.6) (210.8) d. Import duties (29.5) (14.6) (4.7) (38.7) (58.1) (62.8) e. Tax on exchange sales (-) (1.8) (-) (3.6) (3.8) (15.7)

YPFB 2.7 53.5 103.0 344.9 1,183.3 1,086.7 a. production tax (2.7) (53.5) (68.9) (278.6) (883.3) (819.9) b. ad valorem export tax (-) (-) (34.L) (66.3) (300.0) (266.8)

Other Public Enterprises 1.4 1.5 2.6 2.7 3.9 5.0 CBF - - - - ENDE 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 ENFE 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

1/ Estimated.

2/ Transfers to COMIBOL and Banco Aspicola.

3/ Includes transfers to COMIBOL.

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CC 0 0 0 C C- 4 0 o .0 o -Ci Table 6.2: OPERATIONS OF THE STATE BANK, 1968-76 ($b millions)

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976!'

Net Foreign Reserves 4.0 1.0 12.4 30.8 84.7 54.4 78.0 101.0 125.2

Reserve Deposits and Currency Holdings 41.6 61.0 93.3 92.4 129.2 191.7 130.2 241.3 492.5

Domestic Credit 175.1 226.7 275.5 289.7 389.5 708.0 1,170.3 1,243.0 1,536.4 To Private Sector 183.5 246.7 291.8 307.4 459.3 832.3 1,229.1 1,393.2 1,680.0 US Counterpart Funds -i.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 Liabilities to Finance Supervised Credit -13.5 -12.8 -12.4 -12.4 -12.4 -12.4 -12.4 -12.4 -12.4 Official Capital and Surplus -6.9 -24.0 -24.0 -49.6 -52.5 -70.6 -70.8 -82.4 -115.0 Net Unclassified Assets 13.4 18.3 21.5 45.6 -3.8 -40.2 25.5 -54.3 -15.1

Long-Term Foreign Liabilities ------18.0 12.7 10.5

Liabilities to Banks 71.9 85.0 105.7 90.0 173.1 361.2 326.2 413.9 503.2 To Central Bank 71.7 84.8 105.1 89.0 169.8 358.4 324.9 407.6 499.7 To Specialized Banks 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.3 0o,4 0.8 - To Other Commercial Banks (net) - - 0.2 0.8 2.5 2.5 0.9 5.5 3.5

Liabilities to Private Sector 148.8 203.7 275.5 322.9 430.3 592.9 1,034,3 956.7 1,390.0 Demand Deposits 65.5 75.3 99.8 96.0 132.3 184.9 324.5 303.8 5. Savings Deposits 73.4 111.8 154.9 207.7 264.0 323.5 452.5 593.9 785.0 Time Deposits 1.0 6,5 10.8 4.2 2.9 6.0 8.1 14.2 86.0 Other Deposits in Local Currency 5.2 8.5 6.6 7.4 10.5 16.7 20.3 27.6 45.0 Other Liabilities in Local Currency 2.1 0.3 1.9 2.3 4.7 4.8 7.4 9.1 5.0 Liabilities in Foreign Currency 1.6 1.3 1.5 5.3 15.9 57.0 221.5 8.1 24.0

1/ Provisional

Note: 1972 data on basis of exchange rate US$1.00 = $b20.0O

Source: State Bank; IMF. Table 6.3: OPERATIONS OF THE PRIVATE COMNERCIAL BANKS, 1968-76

($b millions)

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974__ 1975 1976-

Net Foreign Reserves -1.3 3.0 -14.6 -68.5 -119.1 -220.6 -418.6 412.8 -254.0

Reserve Deposits and Currency Holdings 135.6 143.0 168.5 243.5 228&0 485.1 780.0 987.7 1,888.5

Domestic Credit 304.5 368.3 425.8 522.3 804.1 1,148.6 1,941,1 2,653.2 3,527.6 To Central Government (Net) 0. 0.8 0.5 o.8 - - To Banks 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 8.3 9.4 10.1 To Private Sector 283.2 334.6 398.9 489.2 800.3 1,094.2 1,838.0 2,474.1 3,425.0 Liabilities to Finance Supervised Credit -2.5 -1.7 -1.0 -0.9 _- - - - Official Capital and Surplus .. .. -9.6 -8.4 -16.0 -23.2 -39.3 -52.0 -75.0 Net Unclassified Assets 22.2 32.8 34.8 40.0 19.0 77.6 134.1 221.7 167.5

Liabilities to Banks 12.2 21.6 18.6 21.9 25.2 140.2 229,3 255.0 257.1 To Central Bank 7.7 714.3 16.2 14T 29.0 142.2 227.3 253.3 255.1 To Specialized Banks 4.5 7.3 4.6 9.4 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.7 - To Commercial Banks (Net) .. .. 2.2 1.6 1.9 0.1 - - 2.0

Liabilities to Private Sector 426.6 492.7 561.1 675.4 887.8 12272.9 2,074.0 2,973.1 4,905.0 Demand Deposits 213.7 219.2 316.0 409:0 663.1 1,136.6 1,317.5 1,890.0 Savings Deposits 93.9 129.7 163.6 215.0 281.3 304.0 419.4 639.8 1,035.0 Time Deposits 3.40 5.2 54075= 33.0 36.6 260.0 Other Deposits in Local Currency 2.8 3.8 7.2 9.8 15.0 11.0 17.0 52.4 50.0 Other Liabilities in Local Currency 4.7 10.0 8.9 4.6 7.1 5.0 9.8 89.6 110.0 Liabilities in Foreign Currency 20.3 30.5 35.0 29.2 45.1 110.5 202.0 379.5 715.0 Capital and Surplus 83.8 96.5 92.4 95.4 125.6 174.3 256.2 394.0 560.0 Prior Deposits 63.7 285.0

1/ Provisional Note: 1972 data on basis US$1.00 = $b20.00

Source: Private Commercial Banks; IMF Table 6.4ie OPERATIONS OF THE AGRICULTURAL BANK, 1968-75 ($b millions) Es timated 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Net Foreign Reserves - - - -29.7 - - - -

Reserve Deposits and Currency Holdings 11.8 10.6 8.5 23.1 27.5 26.6 35.7 50.9

Domestic Credit 14.3 55.0 88.7 178.5 226.9 465.5 740.7 890.3 To Central Goverrment (Net) -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -12.4 -12.5 -12.5 To Bolivian Development Corporation -13.7 -11.5 -9.2 -6.7 -7.0 -2.4 - - To Private Sector 135.4 173.2 200.1 224.1 332.0 647.7 932.9 1,137.4 Liabilities to Finance Supervised Credit -6.4 -6.3 -6.3 -6.3 -6.2 -5.9 -5.8 -5.8 Official Capital and Surplus -86.3 -86.2 -85.0 -79.9 -78.0 -75.9 -26.1 -83.7 Net Unclassified Assets -10.9 -10.4 -7.1 51.1 -10.1 -85.6 -147.8 -145.1

Net Long-term Foreign Liabilities 21.9 56.9 83.7 91.2 146.2 335.1 405.8 419.4

Liabilities to Central Bank 4.2 8.7 13.5 80.7 108.2 157.0 370.6 521.8

Note.: 1972 data on basis of U.S. $1.00 = b$20.00 Source: Agricultural Bank; IMF Table 6.5: OPERATIONS OF THE MINING BANK, 1968-75

(In millions of Bolivian pesos)

Fatimated 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Net Foreign Reserves -0.2 -0.7 23.2 -o.8 -5.2 -1.3 -0.3 -0.1

Reserve Deposits and Currency Holdings 4.5 3.2 4.1 lo.6 3.6 10.6 18.3 20,5

Domestic Credit 25.4 42.1 44.5 72.5 101.8 163.3 217.1 *523.6 To Central Government (Net) -_ -163 - -19.9 -28.8 -36.1 -58.4 -89,3 Other Public Sector Entities 0.2 2.5 0.2 -0.8 -0.5 1.5 0.4 -0.6 To Private Sector 97.1 102.5 119.9 117.7 176.4 255.9 427.1 684.8 U.S. Counterpart Funds -16.8 -16.8 -16.2 -15.6 -15.6 -15.2 -14.4 -13.6 Official Capital and Surplus -16.8 --18.2 -21.7 -20.3 -15.3 -17.6 -24.1 -112.7 Net Unclassified Assets 22.5 -11.6 12.9 11.4 14.4 25.2 -113.5 55,0

Net Long-term Foreign LiaDilities -8.3 0.5 2.1 9.6 9.6 4.4 15.3 201.0

Liabilities to Central Bank 38.0 44.1 69.7 72.7 90.6 168.2 219.8 343,0

Note: 1972 data on basis of U.S. $1.00 -b$20.00 Source: Mining Bank; IfF Table 6.6: OPERATIONS OF THE INDUSTRIAL BANK, 1968-75

($b millions)

Estimated 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Net Foreign Assets 1.9 2.4 4.2 2.3 4.4 13.0 2.1 2.9 Reserve Deposits and Currency Holdings 0.7 0.7 o.6 o.4 o.6 0.7 1.1 3.0 Domestic Credit 38.2 43.5 39.7 38.8 65.8 77.8 103.3 153.1 To Private Commerical Banks 2.9 -77 2.5 3.0 1.9 1.0 1.4 3,8 To Private Sector 46,7 53.4 51.1 5181 89.9 88.3 110.5 163.7 IJ.S. Counterpart Funds -13.0 -14.o -15.5 -17.0 -16.1 -l14.8 -13.6 -21.6 Net Unclassified Assets 1.6 2.3 1.6 1.7 -9.9 3.3 5.0 7.2 Net Long-term Foreign Liabilities 31.2 35.4 34.3 31.6 52.3 56.0 60.2 98.0 Liabilities to Cen-tral Bank 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.8 8.6 14.3 18.2 19.0 Liabilities to Private Sector 8.2 9.5 9.2 9.2 9.9 21.2 28.1 42.0 Other Liabilities in Local Currency T7T 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.o -57 1.4 1.2 Capital and Surplus 7.2 8.0 8.2 8.6 9.1 20.4 26.7 40.8 . - . . f . 0 . '~ Note: 1972 data on basis of U.S. $1.00 - _ . . Source: Industrial Bank; IMF' Table 6.7: OPERATIONS OF THE NATIONAL MORTGAGE BANK 1968-75 ($b millions)

Estimated 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Domestic Credit 24.8 35.2 41.0 43.3 30.1 25.2 21.5 22.5 To Private Commercial Banks 4.5 7.3 6.5 11.3 - - - - To Private Sector 16.9 23.7 26.8 30.4 36.7 25.9 17.5 25.4 Mortgage Loans (15.3) (21.2) (24.4) (21.1) (21.8) (12.6) (8.1) (15.0) Other Loans (0.4) (0.7) (0.9) (8.4) (14.9) (12.1) (8.4) (7.8) Investments (1.2) (1.8) (1.5) (0.9) (-) (-) (-) (-) Loans in Foreign Currency (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (1.2) (1.0) (2.6) Net Unclassified Assets 3.4 4.2 7.7 1.6 -6.6 -0.7 4.0 -2.9

Liabilities to Central Bank 2.0 2.0 1.7 2.3 - - 2.4 3.4

Liabilities to Private Sector 22.8 33.2 39.3 41.0 30.1 25.2 19.1 19.1 Savings Deposits 6.9 10.9 13.3 18.4 - - - - Other Liabilities in Local Currency 2.7 4.2 5.3 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.0 2.4 Mortgage Bonds 11.1 16.0 18.9 16.1 25.4 20.7 15.1 13.1 Capital and Surplus 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.9 - - - 3.6

1/ Excludes Commercial Banking Section.

Note: 1972 data on basis of US $1.00 = $b20.OO

Source: National Mortgage Bank. Table 6.3: COMPOSITION OF MONEY SUPPLY, 1963-1976 (b$ millions)

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 19761/

Money and Quasi-Money 1408.9 1597.0 1343.4 2144.0 2690.1 3556.4 5108.0 5942.2 8463.4

lioney Supply 1226.3 1335.1 1500.6 1693.0 2137.2 2917.9 4195.0 4662.3 6310.2 Currency in Circulation (947.1) (1040.6) (1152.0) (1231.0) (1595.9) (2069.9) (2733.9) (3041.0) (3975.3) Demand Deposits (279.2) (294.5) (343.6) (412.0) (541.3) (343.0) (1461.1) (1621.3) (2335.0)

Ouasi-'oney 132.6 261.9 377. 451.0 552.9 633.5 913.0 1279.9 2153.1 Time Deposits ('.4) (9.5) (16.0) (9.6) (7.6) (11.0) (41.1) (46.2) (330.0) Savings Deposits (174.2) (252.4) (331.3) (441.4) (545.3) (627.5) (371.9) (1233.7) (1823.1)

Mloney and Quasi-Mloney as Percent of CNP at Current Prices 15.9 17.0 17.9 19.4 20.8 17.5 15.4 14.9 17.5 Mloney (13.3) (14.2) (14.5) (15.3) (16.5) (14.4) (12.6) (11.7) (13.1) Quasi-Money (2.1) (2.8) (3.4) (4.1) (4.3) (3.2) (2.3) (3.2) (4.4)

Velocity of Circulation 6.3fn 5.8S 5.59 5.15 4.31 5.70 6.48 6.72 5.71

1/ Provisional Source: Central Bank; IMF; Mission estimates. Table 6.9: BANK Ci'DIT BY ORIGIN, DESTINATION, AND FINANCING 1968-1976 (b$ millions) Estimated

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1/ ORIGIN: 1317.7 1583.4 1861.1 2281.2 2602.2 4101.3 4299.8 6383.8 8804.6

Central Bank (net) 870.5 983.4 1142.3 1429.6 1378.2 2362.7 1295.5 2463.6 3323.7 Commercial Banks (net) 2/ 393 5 485.2 576.0 713.7 941.2 1256.3 2458.3 2907.8 4338.5 Total Credit (478.0) (593.2) (704.7) (813-3) (1193-0) (1854.2) (3103.1) (3881.3) (5048.9) Rediscounts (-84-5) (-108.0) (-128.7) (-99.6) (-251-8) (-597.9) (-644.8) (-973.5) (-710.4) Specialized Banks (net) 42.4 110.2 121.8 140.9 193.3 374.5 460.o 725.5 1003.9 Total Credit (95.3) (166.7) (204.9) (318.8) (422.7) (730.8) (1086.3) (1612.6) (2016.4) Rediscounts (-52.9) (-56-5) (-83-1) (-177.9) (-229.4) (-356.3) (-626.3) (-887.1) (-1012.5) Interbank Float 11.3 4.6 20.7 -3.0 89.5 107.8 86.0 286.9 1/ 138.5

DESTINATION: 1317.7 1583.4 1861.1 2281.2 2602.2 4101.3 4299.8 6383.8 8804.6

Public Sector (net) 1127.9 1200.9 1318.4 1622.2 2108.3 2451.2 1082.9 1350.1 2429.1 Central Government (1037.5) (1133.7) (1173.8) (1438.2) (1928.7) (2164.5) (1836.1) (1902.0) (2565.9) COMIBOL (139.1) (114.9) (140.3) (173.6) (178.1) (206.6) (49.4) (199.9) (849.9) Local Governments (-4.4) (-20.0) (-27.0) (-27.6) (-23.8) (-50.5) (-307.4) (-1087.1) (-2531.3) Other (-44.3) (-27.7) (31-3) (38.0) (25.3) (130.6) (-495.2) (335.3) (1544.6) Private Sector 3/ 762.8 934.1 1088.6 1219.9 1894.6 2944.3 4560.4 5822.1 7770.0 ,Counterpart Funds -246.6 -202.5 -170.1 -124.4 -125.7 -131.4 -264.7 -198.0 -177.9 Liabilities to Finance Supervised Credit 4/ -22.6 -20.9 -19.9 -20.1 -57.6 -107.4 -291.6 -522.4 -586.8 US Emergency Plan Deposits ------70.8 -507.6 -301.0 -124.5 -51.4 -9.4 International Crganizatinns' Deposits -91.5 -101.4 -121.1 -141.3 -304.1 -289.1 -273.6 -248.0 -283.4 Net Unclassified Assets 5/ -223.6 -231.4 -255.5 -201.3 -495.2 -573.1 -475.1 231.4 -337.0 Interbank Float 11.3 4.6 20.7 -3.0 89.5 107.8 86.0 - -

FINANCING: 1317.7 1583.4 1861.1 2281.2 2602.2 4101.3 4299.8 6383.8 8804.6

Net International Reserves -390.1 -396.4 -455.7 -328.4 -930.1 -662.3 -2944.0 -1786.8 -303i.7 Money Supply 1226.3 1335.1 1500.6 1693.0 2137.2 2917.9 4195.0 4662.3 6310.3 Currency in Circulation (947-1) (1040.6) (1152.0) (1281.0) (1595.9) (2069.9) (2733.9) (3041.0) (3975.3) Demand De,posits (279.2) (294-5) (348.6) (412.0) (541.3) (848.0) (1461.1) (1621.3) (2335.0) Quasi-money 6/ 329.0 446.6 538.5 638.5 820.1 1067.5 1703.3 2340.6 3845.5 SDR Contra-entry -- -- 57.9 104.9 276.9 307.7 307.7 307.7 307.7 Net Long-term Liabilities 152.5 198.1 219.8 173.2 298.1 470.5 1037.8 791.7 1071.8 Prior Deposit 68.3 301.0

1/ Provisional 2/ Including State Bank 3/ Including deposits for financing supervised agricultural credit (1968-1969) 4/ Including Agricultural and Industrial Rediscount Funds (FRA:FRI) 5/ Including Official Capital and Surplus 6/ More widely defined than in Table 6.8, including all liabilities to private sector except demand deposits and currency in circulation

Source: Central Bank, IMF Table 6.10: SELECTED INTEREST RATES, 1968-75

~~~ ~~~~~~~ ~~~ ~August 1968 1969 1973 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 LENDING RATES Central Bank Rediscount Rates .. 13 *. .. 11 11 13 13 Lending to Treasury .. .. 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Commercial Banks Credit to "Productive" Sectors Nominal Rate 15 15 15 15 13 13 15 15 Employees' Fund Commission 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Tax on Credit ------3 1 1 Effective Rate 18 18 18 18 16 19 19 19 Credit to "Commercial" Sectors

Nominal Rate 18 15 15 15 15 13 15 15 Employees' FUnd Commission 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Tax on Credit 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 Effective Rate 30 27 27 27 27 25 25 25 Development Banks Agricultural Bank Own Funds 12 12 .. .. 10 10 13 13 AID Funds 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 IDB Funds 6 .. .. 6 6 6 Mining Bank Own Funds .. 6 .. 12 12 13 13 AID Funds 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 Industrial Bank Own Funds 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 Foreign Funds 12 ...... 10 10 121/ .

DEPOSIT RATES Savings Deposit with Commercial Banks .. 10 .. .. 10 10 10 10 (min) (max) (max) (min) (min) 1/ FRI Source: Central Bank; Ministry of Finance. 1/ Table 7.1: GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURAL BANK CREDIT,1970-1975 (Thousands of Bolivian pesos)

TOTAL R E G I 0 N 1970-71 % 1971-72 % 1972-73 % 1973-74 % 197h-75 % 1970-71 to 197J6-7c1_ Santa Cruz 38258 63 117190 86 213906 80 415249 80 24056 6 72 1025169 78

Beni-Pando 9310 16 8206 6 23940 9 59535 11 42515 13 143506 11 Beni (59171) (. ,)(.(11) (29624b) 9()() Pando (.()()() (--) (-)(364)(12891) 4(-)-)

Cochabamba 2175 4 2364 2 6288 2 10250 2 13055 4 34032 3

La Paz 7694 13 2381 2 5744 2 8947 2 5168 1 29934 2

Oruro -- -- 120 -- 4500 2 4241 1 9042 3 17903 1

Chuquisaca 874 1 3081 2 3356 1 3746 1 5554 2 16611 1

Potosi 1191 2 659 -- 2156 1 2877 -- 2881 1 9764 1

Tarija 867 1 2212 2 8982 3 16604 3 15365 4 44030 3

TOTAL 60369 100 136213 100 268772 100 521449 100 334146 100 1320949 100

1/ These figures do not include central bank or externally funded agricultural credit

Source: Agricultural Bank of Bolivia 1/ Table 7.2: SECTORAL DISTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURAL BANK CREDIT, 1970-75 (Thousands of Bolivian pesos)

S E C T 0 R 1970-71 % 1971-72 % 1972-73 % 1973-74 ' 1974-75 % TOTAL 1970-71 % to 1974-75

I.Traditional Sector 18015 29.8 7862 5.8 31055 11.6 39069 7.5 59121 17.7 155122 11.7

Wheat 89 0.1 41 -- 221 0.1 391 0.1 2510 0.8 3180 0.2 Corn 892 1.5 449 0.3 1344 0.5 3132 0.6 3199 1.0 9016 0.7 Alfalfa --- _-- ______Fruits & Vegetables 5994 9.9 2997 2.3 9138 3.4 9237 1.8 20497 6.1 47863 3.6 Poultry 2043 3.4 681 0.5 3924 1.5 4758 0.9 3242 0.9 14648 1.1 Pigs 1890 3.1 1022 o.8 2015 0 7 1808 0.3 971 0.3 7706 o.6 Sheeps 380 0.6 320 0.2 2150 0.8 4024 0.8 8191 2.5 15065 1.1 Milk 2500 4.1 123 0.1 2688 1.0 2120 0.4 1268 0.4 8699 0.7 Gum ------8350 2.5 8350 o.6 Other 4227 7.1 2229 1.6 9575 3.6 13671 2.6 10893 3.2 40595 3.1

II.Commercial Sector 42354 70.2 128351 94.2 237717 88.4 482380 92.5 275025 82.3 1165827 88.3 Cotton and Derivatives 18694 31.0 96775 71.0 123825 46.0 297603 57.1 150178 44.9 687075 52.0 Livestock 12806 21.2 25053 18.4 62346 23.2 89232 17.1 33951 10.2 223388 16.9 Coffee 102 0.2 230 0.2 454 0.2 383 0.1 188 0.1 1357 0.1 Oils and Fats 3260 5.4 681 0.5 23651 8.8 43904 8.4 3730 1.1 75226 5.8 Sugar Cane 7365 12.2 5449 4.0 26877 10.0 42090 8.1 57011 17.0 138792 10.5 Rice 127 0.2 163 0.1 564 0.2 9168 1.7 29967 9.0 39989 3.0

TOTAL 60369 100 136213 100 268772 100 521449 100 334146 100 1320949 100

1/ Does not include central bank or externally funded agricultural- credit

Source: Agricultural Bank of Bolivia; UAID; Mission estimates. Table 7.3: PRODUCTION OF MAJOR AGRICULTURAL CROPS, 1970-75 - (Production in thousand metric tons; unit prices in $b/Y.T.; value in $b millions)

Estimated Commercial Sector 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Sugar Cane Production 1,467.7 1,101.6 1,468.3 1,998.0 2,048.7 2,254.7 Unit Price 68.o 68.0 94.0 120.0 85.0 69.0 Value 99.8 7L.9 138.0 186.2 174.2 156.5 (Value at 1974 prices) (124.8) ( 93.6) (124.8) (169.8) (174.2) (193-9)

Rice Production 64.3 76.9 76.0 68.5 75.4 124.2 Unit Price 989.0 989.0 989.0 1,186.0 2,334.0 1,561.0 Value 63.6 76.1 75.1 81.3 176.0 193.9 (Value at 1974 prices) (150.1) (179.5) (177.4) (159-9) (176.0) (289.9)

Cotton Production 5.1 9.8 15.5 37.6 26.7 21.5 Unit Price 6,957.0 6,957.o 7,261.0 17,044.0 16,391.0 13,742.0 Value 35.5 68.2 112.5 640.9 437.6 295.4 (Value at 1974 prices) ( 83.6) (160.6) (254-1) (616.3) (437.6) (352-4)

Soya Production 1. 1.2 1.2 3.4 8.0 9.2 Unit Price 1,513.0 1,622.0 1,793.0 3,370.0 5,000.0 3,969.0 Value 2.3 1.9 2.2 11.5 40.0 36-5 (Value at 1974 prices) ( 75) ( 6.0) ( 6.0) ( 17-0) ( 40.0) ( 46.0) Coffee Production 11.2 12.4 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.6 Unit Price 3,478.0 3,696.0 3,913.0 5,435.' 8,696.0 8,578.0 Value 390 ~ 0972.8 120.9 121 .2 (Value at 1974 prices) ( 97.4) (107.8) (113.0) (116 5) (1,209.0) (127.0) Cocoa Production 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.3 1.2 1.3 Unit Price 5,000.° 5,435 ° 5,435.0 6,087.0 10,870.0 8,288.0 Value 6.5 7.1 7.6 1.8 13.0 10.8 (Value at 1974 prices) ( 14-1) ( 14.1) ( 15.2) ( 3-3) ( 13-0) ( 14.1) 'Pc, 1,551.1 1,203.2 1,575.4 2,121.2 2,174-9 2,425.5 TOTAL P?&uction 158.8 227.6 245.2 468.8 442.2 647.0 Unit Price 247.7 273.9 386.3 994.5 961.7 (1,569.4) Value (685.9) (532-1) (696.6) (938.0) (961.7) (1,072.6) (Value at 1974 prices) Table 8.1: PRODUCTION,DOMESTIC USE AND EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM

AND NATURAL GAS - 1968-1976 (Barrels '000 and ft 3 millions)

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1/

PETROLEUM (barrels '000)

Production 14,976 14,751 8,819 13,206 15,968 17,262 16,595 14,734 14,952.6

Refining 4,232 4,433 4,565 4,955 5,201 5,533 5,912 6,208 6,580.0

Domestic Sales 3,558 4,194 4,435 4,747 5,032 4,664 5,394 6,177 6,550.8

Exports 10,704 10,040 4,662 8,447 10,945 11,844 10,798 8,283 8,123.7

NATURAL GAS (ft 3 millions) 2/ Production 3,261 25,724 10,571 29,602 44,133 55,205 58,015 54,974 55,797

Domestic Sales ------648 700 756

Exports ______35,497 55,45 ,8 54,966 55,789

1/ Provisional 2/ The production figures exclude natural gas used for reinjection and flaring purposes.

Source: YPFB; IMF; Mission estimates. Table 8.2: DISTRIBUTION OF INVESfMENIT PROJECTS APPROVED -BY INI, BY INDUSTRIAL SUB-SEJTORS, 1972-75

Number US; million of Projects Equivalent Percent Number Percent

TlOTAL 186 277.7 100 14,388 100 Sub-Sectors

Agriculture, Replenishable Natural Resources 14 19.9 7.2 2,283 15.9

Agro-Industry 38 122.8 44.2 6,576 45.7

Foodstuffs 10 40.1 14.4 179 1.2

Electrical Industry 2 5.1 1.8 38 0.3

Metal Processing 27 28.9 10.4x 1,133 7.9

Textiles 12 6.1 2.2 549 3.8

Plastics 7 1.9 0.7 116 0.8

Non-Metallic Minerals 5 8.9 3.2 231 1.6

Chemicals; Pharmaceuticals 14 2.2 0.8 222 1.5

Tourism 19 23.3 8.4 863 6.0 i'aning; Metallurgy 15 12.1 4.4 1,575 11.0

Other 23 6.4 2.3 623 4.3

Source: National Investment Institute. Table 9,1: RETAIL PRICE INDEX, 1968-76

Index (1974 = 100) Increase (Percent) Annual End of End of Food Housing Clothing Other Total Average 12 Months 3 Months

Weights-/ (54.8) (16.1) (13.9) (15.2) (100.0)

1968 34.5 60.9 40.7 52.0 40.1 5.3 3.5 -

1969 35.2 62.1 41.8 53.0 41.0 2.2 3.2 -

1970 36.9 64.6 43.4 53.5 42.5 3.7 4.1 -

1971 38.4 67.4 45.4 53.9 44.1 3.8 3.3 -

1972 40.8 71.2 49.5 57.0 46.9 6.3 23.7 -

1973 55.0 81.8 68.5 73.9 61.4 30.9 34.7 -

1974 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 62.8 39.0 -

1975 105P3 114.2 115.9 l1Ool 108.0 8o0 6o0 -

1976 107.9 125.0 128.6 114.6 112.8 4.4 5.5 -

1974 1st Quarter 94.8 92.9 91.4 94.9 94.2 43.7 75.6 33.1

2nd Quarter 102.3 96.3 98.0 100.4 101.0 55.8 78.6 7.2

3rd Quarter 102.3 105.2 102.7 101.5 102.6 62.7 59.8 1.6

4th Qu.-rter 100.6 105.6 107.9 103.3 102.3 62.8 39.0 -0.3

1975 1st Quarter 102.9 106.8 111.5 108.2 104.9 44.5 5.9 2.6

2nd Quarter 102.6 114.4 113.0 108.4 105.7 26.7 4.2 .8

3rd Quarter 108.5 117.2 117.5 111.2 110.7 14.8 10.1 4.8

4th Quarter 107.3 118.2 121.7 111.9 110.6 8.0 6.0 -0.1

1976 1st Quarter 107.1 121.6 125.6 114.0 111.5 6.7 5.7 0.8

2nd Quarter 105.5 123.4 128.5 114.7 111.1 6.8 5.0 -0.4

3rd Quarter 108.7 127.2 129.3 114.8 113.7 5.5 2.2 2.3

4th Quarter 110.2 127.8 130.8 114.8 115.0 4.4 5.5 1.1

1/ As of June 1972. The index uses shifting weights based on the monthly distribution of consumption outlays.

Note: Index exists for La Paz only.

Source: National Statistical Institute.