IEA Wind TCP 2017 Annual Report Presents Highlights and Trends from Each Member Country and Sponsor Member, As Well As Global Statistics
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IEA Wind Technology Collaboration Programme 2017 Annual Report A MESSAGE FROM THE CHAIR Wind energy continued its strong forward momentum during the past term, with many countries setting records in cost reduction, deployment, and grid integration. In 2017, new records were set for hourly, daily, and annual wind–generated electricity, as well as share of energy from wind. For example, Portugal covered 110% of national consumption with wind-generated electricity during three hours while China’s wind energy production increased 26% to 305.7 TWh. In Denmark, wind achieved a 43% share of the energy mix—the largest share of any IEA Wind TCP member countries. From 2010-2017, land-based wind energy auction prices dropped an average of 25%, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) fell by 21%. In fact, the average, globally-weighted LCOE for land-based wind was 60 USD/ MWh in 2017, second only to hydropower among renewable generation sources. As a result, new countries are adopting wind energy. Offshore wind energy costs have also significantly decreased during the last few years. In Germany and the Netherlands, offshore bids were awarded at a zero premium, while a Contract for Differences auction round in the United Kingdom included two offshore wind farms with record strike prices as low as 76 USD/MWh. On top of the previous achievements, repowering and life extension of wind farms are creating new opportunities in mature markets. However, other challenges still need to be addressed. Wind energy continues to suffer from long permitting procedures, which may hinder deployment in many countries. The rate of wind energy deployment is also uncertain after 2020 due to lack of policies; for example, only eight out of the 28 EU member states have wind power policies in place beyond 2020. The low cost of energy achieved so far is opening new markets. However, in order to exploit the potential of other aspects of wind energy—like additional services to the grid—markets need to be designed to account for wind energy, and for renewables in general. Overall, contributions from the IEA Wind Technology Collaboration Programme (TCP) Research Tasks are paving the way for further deployment, cheaper cost of energy, lower risk investments, and removing some of the technological and non-technological barriers to wind energy. International collaboration is at the core of our activities at the IEA Wind TCP. In 2017 we launched a new community platform aimed at increasing the impact of our activities by better disseminating our work and by creating a global community of experts in wind energy. I invite you to be part of IEA Wind community and to contribute to the development of wind energy. You can start here: community.ieawind.org Ignacio Marti Chair of the Executive Committee, 2016-2018 2 2017 IEA WIND TCP ANNUAL REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS IEA Wind TCP 2017 Overview........................................................................................................................................... 4 Activities of the IEA Wind TCP................................................................................................................................... 22 Research Task Reports.................................................................................................................................................... 26 Task 11—Base Technology Information Exchange.............................................................................................................................. 26 Task 19—Wind Energy in Cold Climates.................................................................................................................................................... 28 Task 25—Design and Operation of Power Systems with Large Amounts of Wind Power....................................................... 30 Task 26—Cost of Wind Energy................................................................................................................................................................. 32 Task 27—Small Wind Turbines in High Turbulence Sites.................................................................................................................... 34 Task 28—Social Acceptance of Wind Energy Projects......................................................................................................................... 36 Task 29—Analysis of Wind Tunnel Measurements and Improvement of Aerodynamic Models............................................. 38 Task 30—Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5)................................................... 40 Task 31—WAKEBENCH: Benchmarking of Wind Farm Flow Models......................................................................................... 42 Task 32—Lidar Systems for Wind Energy Deployment................................................................................................................ 44 Task 34—Working Together to Resolve Environmental Effects of Wind Energy (WREN).................................................... 46 Task 35—Full-Size Ground Testing for Wind Turbines and Their Components....................................................................... 48 Task 36—Forecasting for Wind Energy................................................................................................................................................... 50 Task 37—Wind Energy Systems Engineering: Integrated Research, Design, and Development................................................ 52 Task 39—Quiet Wind Turbine Technology.............................................................................................................................................. 54 Task 40—Downwind Turbine Technologies......................................................................................................................................... 56 Country and Sponsor Member Reports..........................................(Download full report at community.ieawind.org) TABLE OF CONTENTS 3 IEA WIND TCP 2017 OVERVIEW WIND ENERGY RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, & DEPLOYMENT SUCCESS Wind energy saw much success in 2017, continuing the trend of upward growth worldwide. Current wind energy cost reduction trends continue, underpinned by an increasingly mature ecosystem of supply chain, developers and operators. Efficiencies of large market volume, gradual technology innovations, and reduction of risk premium also contribute to cost reduction. Globally, 53 GW of wind power capacity was added during the 2017 was a landmark year for moving from old subsidy year, reaching a total of 539 GW (Table 1). Installed capacity schemes to auctions, which are often market-based and grew 11% worldwide, with over 50 GW installed for the fourth technology-neutral. Land-based wind power auctions were consecutive year [1]. A record 4.3 GW of new offshore capacity performed in Canada, France, Germany, and Spain. Denmark, was installed worldwide, increasing the cumulative capacity by Finland, and Ireland are launching technology-neutral auction 31% to 18.8 GW [1]. Wind power continues to be the largest systems in 2018. non-hydropower source of renewable energy by installed capacity, with a share of 50% excluding hydropower [2]. Norway and the United States are planning to move to full market operation for wind plants after their current subsidy schemes end in 2020 and 2021, respectively. China is Table 1. Wind Energy Key Statistics 2017 discussing moving to a wind power tariff, similar to the tariff for coal. IEA Wind Global TCP Statistics Member [1,2] For the first time, in 2017 auctions for offshore capacity were Countries awarded at zero premium over and above the wholesale Total net installed power capacity 456.6 GW 539.1 GW electricity price (excluding grid connection). This milestone (land-based and offshore) indicates that subsidy-free operation is becoming a reality [3]. Total offshore wind power capacity [2] 18.7 GW 18.8 GW The IEA Wind Technology Collaboration Programme (IEA New wind power capacity installed 42.5 GW 52.5 GW Wind TCP) shares information and engages in research Electrical annual output from wind 942.5 TWh 1,430 TWh* activities (Tasks) to advance wind energy deployment. In 2017, there were 26 contracting parties to this agreement Wind-generated electricity as a 6.1% 5.6%* representing 21 member countries as well as the European percent of electric demand Commission, the Chinese Wind Energy Association, and * Estimate WindEurope (Italy and Norway have two contracting parties). 4 2017 IEA WIND TCP ANNUAL REPORT Nearly 85% of the world’s wind generating capacity— and nearly all offshore capacity—resides in countries participating in the IEA Wind TCP [1]. These countries added about 43 GW of capacity in 2017, accounting for over 80% of the worldwide market growth [1]. Within the IEA Wind TCP member countries, 457 GW of operational wind power capacity generated 943 TWh in 2017, meeting 6.1% of the total electrical demand. This Executive Summary of the IEA Wind TCP 2017 Annual Report presents highlights and trends from each member country and sponsor member, as well as global statistics. The annual report also presents the latest research results and plans for the 16 co-operative research activities (Tasks), which address specific issues related to wind energy development. Data reported in previous IEA Wind TCP documents (1995-2016) are included as background for discussions of 2017 events. The annual report is freely downloadable at community.ieawind.org.