Monthly Food Security Report for Niger June 2004
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Monthly Food Security Report for Niger June 2004 Summary The agricultural season began in June with favorable rainfall and planting conditions, only to suffer a setback beginning in the second dekad due to worsening weather conditions. In the field, the unfavorable weather conditions translated into some cases (which remain isolated to date) of water stress and planting failure. This type of localized failure is normal at this time of year, as it is tied to the agricultural season’s usual ups and downs. Nevertheless, it is giving farming and herding households reason for concern. Despite the persistence of favorable economic indicators, including low prices and the availability of cereals, household economies in areas targeted by the EWS and its partners are under normal seasonal pressure before the harvest as rural households pursue strategies to feed themselves and their livestock. A continuation of unfavorable rainfall conditions could cause the food security situation to worsen later in both agricultural areas and pastoral areas. The perception of a bad start to the season has not caused people to hold back their reserves, which would have resulted in high cereal prices. Thanks to the arrival of cereals from Burkina Faso and Mali and the tendency of households to sell their reserves to pay for farm labor, prices on most of the country’s markets are decreasing. The locust situation remains critical. However, the southward movement of the locusts, which began a few weeks ago with the first rains, has slowed in June due to unfavorable rainfall conditions throughout the country. 1. Satisfactory Food Conditions Predominate in Pre-Harvest Period The agricultural and food situation is satisfactory throughout the country, despite seasonal constraints related to planting setbacks and a limited number of households facing moderate to extreme food insecurity. Nevertheless, concerns are mounting as the breeding of desert locusts and their migration toward crop areas points towards a potentially large infestation in the country’s agricultural regions (Figure 1). 2 Figure 1: Situation with Regard to Planting, Locusts and Areas of Food Insecurity KeyLegende Areas at high risk of infestation DD DD by desert locusts Unplanted areas Areas planted late BILMA ARLIT ARLIT <! <! <! <! Areas of food insecurity NGUIGMI TCHINTABARADENE <! GOURE <! TAHOUA TANOUT FILINGUE D D D D DAKORO D X D DOUALLAM ILLELAD D D D D TERA D <! D X D D DOGONDOUTCHI D XD MAINESOROA D LOGA MATAMEYE D DIFFA MADAROUNFA<! X <! SAY MAGARIA Sources: EWS, CCA [Food Crisis Unit], DPV [Crop Protection Service]; Graphic: FEWS NET 2. Unfavorable weather conditions setback Figure 2: Rainfall Conditions During the Second planting raising questions about this agricultural Dekad of June 04 season Mediocre weather conditions predominated in the last two dekads of June after low rainfall in the first dekad. Satellite images showing rainfall estimates (RFE) for the second dekad of June indicate that rainfall was concentrated in the far western part of the country, with rainfall in the rest of the agricultural areas being very low (Figure 2). Insufficient rainfall led to isolated cases of water stress and localized failure of planting in all of the country’s agricultural areas. Source: NASA 3 The water requirement satisfaction Fiqure 3: Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) index (WRSI) shows that plant water for Plants requirements are being met only at a low level, fluctuating between 0 and 60% in most of the agricultural areas. (Withering) (Stress) (Satisfactory) (Sufficient) Local dry spells, lasting up to 10 days (Delay) (Tillabéri) have delayed crop (Not yet begun) development, with most crops sown still at the emergent stage. These spells also slowed the increase in the number of farming villages that have planted. As of June 20, 67% of the villages had planted, which was 3% lower than at the same time of the year in 2003. Planting delays were localized in the Zinder and Diffa Regions (Figure 3), but this will not significantly affect the outcome of the Source: NASA season because they occurred so early. At the end of June, households were beginning to worry about the farming season’s slow progress, as they based their evaluation of the prospects for the season on estimates that change with the frequency of the rains. While this initial start is causing concern, it should be noted that seasonal weather forecasts are still predicting normal rainfall conditions in most agricultural areas. The lack of rainfall may correspond to a temporary downturn which may correct itself in time to result in a good season. The worry that breaks in the rainfall will continue until the end of the first dekad of July, which would prolong the pre-harvest period by slowing plant development, is not very likely in the country as a whole. This scenario, which might occur on a localized basis, would cause additional planting failures without affecting the trend toward overall normal progress for the season. 3. Despite the satisfactory food situation on the national level, seasonal pressures in line with the pre-harvest period are causing stress for some households. Figure 4: Distribution of households in areas of food insecurity Although favorable economic conditions, such Households as reasonable prices and good availability of cereals, continue, households in farming and Diffa Maradi grazing areas are suffering the combined 5,919 effects of the temporary deterioration of their Agadez 3,598 2,911 resources and local pre-harvest conditions. Tahoua 21,231 In agricultural regions, poor households have been falling back on the markets for their supplies since January, which has gradually eroded their financial and material resources Tillaberi and reduced their ability to meet food needs. 21,035 Dosso 11,207 Sources: EWS & CCA; Graphic: FEWS NET 4 In some grazing regions, the reduction in forage and water resources, replenishment of which has been hindered by the lack of rain, has lead to a delay in the schedule for moving the animals to their northern pastures. This delay, combined with difficulties in gaining access to milk, has put some households in a precarious food situation. At the end of June, a total of 461,308 persons, which is only 4% of Niger’s population, distributed among 69,901 households in 6 regions of the country, were subject to moderate or extreme food insecurity, depending on the location (Figure 4). 4. Cereal imports from neighboring countries and financial pressures related to agricultural season are contributing to a widespread reduction in cereal prices. In most of the country’s principal markets, millet and sorghum prices are falling due in part to: • significant inflow of millet and sorghum from Burkina Faso and Mali, which is shoring up the domestic supply; • the tendency of households and businesspersons to sell household grain stocks in order to pay for agricultural labor and weddings, which are known for being very frequent during this period at the end of the school year. Février = February Figure 5: Change in Millet Prices from February to June 04 Mars = March Avril = April Mai = May Juin = June Moy 5 mois = 5-month average Moyen nat. = National average AGADEZ DIFFA TAHOUA ZINDER TILLABERI MARADI NIAMEY Source : SIMA ; Graphique : FEWS NET 5 In June, millet prices, especially, dropped in comparison to May prices in some markets such as Tillabéri and Niamey, and dropped even more in Zinder. Nevertheless, if the unfavorable weather conditions continue beyond the first dekad of July, merchants and cooperatives may hold back significant reserves, with the result that prices may start to increase. 5. The spread of rainfall and planting activities through the entire country will increase the risk of desert locust attacks on the crops. For the moment, locust breeding and expansion to the south have been partially limited by the lack of rain seen in the last two dekads of June. The current presence of swarms of locusts in Air and in parts of Tabelot (Agadez) could result in large infestations of vegetable and cereal crops in these areas, with the probable result that crop yields will be greatly reduced, by as much as 50%. Curtailment of the main sources of food and income in poor and average-income households in these areas could cause localized food deficits and significantly increase the exodus to Libya. If the rains become more widespread, as is normal for this time of year, there may be significant movement of the locusts toward the southern agricultural areas (Figure 3). From the standpoint of planning a response, the DPV [Crop Protection Service] has developed a scenario based on the infestation of 500,000 hectares by desert locusts during the agricultural season. Such a situation would require significant resources, including 250,000 liters of pesticides. Already, the government’s various partners have made commitments to provide substantial contributions toward strengthening the survey and treatment mechanism. Though initially limited by the critical lack of resources, survey and treatment operations have picked up thanks to joint initiatives by the government and its partners. APPENDIX Table 1: Detailed Situation in Areas of Food Insecurity Number of Villages with Departments Areas Shortage Indicators of Food Insecurity Madarounfa Safo Canton 10 Emigration of population, shortages, consumption of famine foods (16 villages) Gabi Canton 6 Consumption of famine foods Kalfou 16 Instability of schools Tahoua 18 High cost of products Tahoua (54 villages) Bambeye 20