South -East Staffordshire Housing Needs Study

Tamworth Housing Needs Assessment

HEaDROOM Update Report

Tamworth Borough Council

7 October 2014

50373/MW/CRo/RHt

Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners 3rd Floor One St James's Square Manchester M2 6DN nlpplanning.com

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All plans within this document produced by NLP are based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A South-East Staffordshire Housing Needs Study : Tamworth Housing Needs Assessment

Contents

1.0 Introduction 4 Background to the Study ...... 4

2.0 Context 6 Previous OAN Housing Need Studies ...... 6 Changes since the Original 2011 HEaDROOM and the 2012 and 2013 Updates ...... 8 Plan Progress ...... 11 Data Releases ...... 13 Summary ...... 22

3.0 Market Signals 23 Introduction ...... 23 Housing Market Indicators ...... 23 Synthesis of Market Signals ...... 30

4.0 Tamworth’s Future Housing Need 34 Introduction ...... 34 Scenarios – Assumptions and Approach ...... 35 Modelling Results ...... 37 Summary ...... 43 Bringing the Evidence Together ...... 45

5.0 Implications 46 Introduction ...... 46 Scenario Modelling Summary ...... 47 Defining the OAN Range ...... 51 Overall Compliance ...... 56

6.0 Conclusions 60

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1.0 Introduction

Background to the Study

1.1 Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners [NLP] produced a housing needs study and SHMA update in May 2012 on behalf of the three south-east Staffordshire Councils of Cannock Chase District [CCDC], Lichfield District [LDC] and Tamworth Borough [TBC] into the future population, household projections and housing needs of the area. The study set out the potential scale of future housing needs in the three districts, based upon a range of housing, economic and demographic factors, trends and forecasts. This sought to provide the Councils with evidence on the future housing needs of their districts to help them plan for future growth and make informed policy choices through the development plan preparation process.

1.2 Following the submission of the SHMA in May 2012, the demographic data which underpinned NLP’s modelling work was subsequently updated by ONS. In particular, new data became available following the partial release of the 2011 Census data; the 2010-based ONS Sub-National Population Projections [SNPP]; and the (interim) 2011-based SNPP.

1.3 As a consequence, NLP prepared a HEaDROOM Supporting Statement Report in November 2012 which tested the ongoing validity of the housing needs identified in the original study in the light of the more recently released demographic data and population projections.

1.4 The 2012 study subsequently formed a key part of the evidence base underpinning LDC’s Local Plan [LDLP], which was submitted for examination in March 2013. Ahead of the Examination in Public [EiP] into the Soundness of the LDLP, the Inspector released a series of Matters and Issues that formed the basis for discussion at the hearing sessions. Of the six issues identified under the ‘Housing Numbers’, the Inspector requested further information on what implications (if any) the 2011-based household projections had on the housing requirement set out in the Plan.

1.5 In response to this NLP produced a report in May 2013 which provided a response to Issue 2 (v), broadening the discussion to consider the implications for the other two authorities in the HMA.

1.6 Since this time, the Cannock Chase Local Plan (Part 1) 2014 has been formally adopted by CCDC (on 11 th June 2014), with a housing delivery target of 5,300 new houses in the District between 2006 and 2028 (the plan period). This equates to 241 dpa.

1.7 The Lichfield Local Plan Examination in Public [EiP] has also taken place, although the Plan was subsequently subject to a High Court Challenge in July 2014. The High Court Challenge case has now been dismissed and the Examination into the Lichfield District Local Plan Strategy will resume in October 2014. Core Policy 6 of the Main Modifications to the Local Plan (made following

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the 2013 Examination in Public [EiP]) now seeks to deliver at least 10,030 new homes in Lichfield District between 2008 and 2029.

1.8 The demographic data which underpinned NLP’s modelling work in the May 2013 study has now again been updated by ONS with the publication of the 2012 based ONS Sub-National Population Projections [SNPP] in May 2014.

1.9 This paper has been produced to provide further housing OAN evidence ahead of Tamworth Borough Council’s Local Plan EiP in 2015.

1.10 This Report focuses on the following: 1 A contextual overview exploring the reasons behind any significant changes to the forecasts and the extent to which the previous forecasts underpinning the housing needs remain valid; 2 An analysis of the latest demographic and population releases for TBC, specifically the 2012-based SNPP, and how these new forecasts compare with the data underpinning the HEaDROOM report (and subsequent updates); 3 An analysis of the Housing Market Signals and whether this impacts upon Tamworth Borough’s Objectively Assessed Need [OAN]; 4 A sensitivity test exploring the likely impact of these new figures on Tamworth’s dwelling needs through a re-run of the PopGroup baseline model run (incorporating the 2012-based ONS SNPP forecasts); and, 5 A re-run of scenarios for TBC exploring migration constraints and employment-led scenarios.

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2.0 Context

Previous OAN Housing Need Studies

South-East Staffordshire Housing Needs Study and SHMA Update (May 2012)

2.1 In May 2012, NLP published a south-east Staffordshire Districts Housing Needs Study and SHMA Update. The purpose of the study was to set out the potential scale of future housing needs in the three districts, based upon a range of housing, economic and demographic factors, trends and forecasts. This sought to provide the Councils with evidence on the future housing needs of their districts to help them plan for future growth and make informed policy choices through the development plan preparation process.

2.2 In addition to establishing the overall housing level associated with different scenarios, the study also appraised the level of affordable housing need. This involved a partial update of the two earlier SHMAs undertaken for the Councils. The affordable housing target was broken down by tenure, size and type, for each sub-housing market area, and identified the dwelling requirements of households with a variety of special needs.

2.3 NLP’s HEaDROOM model was used to identify locally generated housing needs based upon an analysis of the housing, economic and demographic factors within the three south-east Staffordshire Districts. Specifically, this involved using the PopGroup demographic forecasting tool, with a variety of inputs including 2008- based ONS population projections and comparable CLG household forecasts. 12 scenarios for future housing need was were agreed with the three Councils which were split between demographic, economic and housing led scenarios. These were identified to reflect what had occurred previously, as well as what might occur in the future given a range of factors affecting population and household growth.

2.4 For Cannock Chase the various forecasts ranged from a low of 197dpa based on Scenario C (Zero Net Migration), to the apparent anomaly of 969dpa based on Scenario G (Past Trends Job growth). There was a cluster around the 200- 300dpa mark. Bringing the evidence together, it was considered that a narrow range of 250-280dpa would be appropriate for Cannock Chase District over the plan period.

2.5 For Lichfield the various forecasts ranged from a low of 249dpa based on Scenario H (Static Job Growth), to the high of 630dpa based on Scenario G (Past Trends Job growth). There was a cluster around the 400-500dpa mark. Bringing the evidence together, it was considered that a narrow range of 410-450dpa would be appropriate for Lichfield District over the plan period.

2.6 For Tamworth the various forecasts range from a low of 200dpa based on Scenario J (RS requirements), to the apparent anomaly of 507dpa based on Scenario G (Past Trends Job growth). There was a cluster around 200-300dpa.

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Bringing the evidence together, it was considered that a narrow range of 240- 265dpa would be appropriate for Tamworth Borough over the plan period.

HEaDROOM Supporting Statement Report (November 2012)

2.7 Following the release of the ONS 2010-based SNPP, Interim 2011-based SNPP, and selected 2011 Census population data, it was recognised that there was a need to undertake a refresh of the previous HEaDROOM work to ensure that the housing figures were as up-to-date and robust as possible to support the advanced stages of the respective authorities Local Plan preparation process.

2.8 As a result, NLP produced an update report for the three Councils in 2012. For Cannock Chase, the 2008 and 2010-based projections ran relatively closely alongside one another, with the former suggesting population growth of 5,500 between 2011 and 2028, and the latter suggesting 5,800 additional residents over the same time period. The stark difference related to the gap between the latest (interim) 2011 projections and the other two, due primarily to the under-estimation in the mid-year forecasts compared to the actual Census data.

2.9 In Lichfield the projected growth rates changed relatively little between all three forecasts, with a difference of 800 residents between 2011 and 2028 between the 2008-based SNPP (+12,500) and the 2010-based SNPP (+13,300). Furthermore, due to the mid-year estimates being very close to the actual 2011 Census records, there was limited divergence with the interim 2011-based SNPP – this suggested annual growth rates of 800 residents per annum 2011-21, compared to 780 per annum for the 2008 SNPP and 820 per annum for the 2010 SNPP.

2.10 In Tamworth, whilst the 2011 interim SNPP and 2010-based SNPP were very similar, the 2008-based SNPP indicated a level of population growth far lower than the later projections. The 2008 SNPP suggested a growth of just 4,400 residents over the period 2011-28, compared to 8,100 using the 2010-based SNPP.

2.11 In the 2012 Supporting Statement, and after modelling the latest ONS 2010 and 2011-based SNPP data and related statistics on vacancy rates, unemployment and commuting, it was considered that the original ranges of between 250-280 dpa for Cannock Chase District, and 410-450 dpa for Lichfield District, remained within an acceptable margin of tolerance despite changes to the growth forecasts.

2.12 For Tamworth, very high levels of population growth forecast by the ONS in their 2010 and 2011-based population projections resulted in a level of housing need higher than the top end of the 240-265 dwelling range suggested in the previous study. NLP suggested that taking this evidence into account would point to a range of between 280 and 300 dpa for Tamworth Borough. This would increase the overall south-east Staffordshire OAN to between 940 and 1,030 dpa.

Implications of the 2011-based CLG Household Projections (May 2013)

2.13 The May 2013 Update tested the ongoing validity of the housing need identified in the 2012 SHMA and subsequent Update in November 2012,in light of new

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demographic data and population projections at the time. Specifically, it sought to address the Inspector’s query concerning the implications of the latest CLG 2011- based household projections on Lichfield Local Plan’s housing requirement.

2.14 The 2013 Update concluded that, having modelled the latest CLG household projections and related statistics on vacancy rates, unemployment and commuting, the original ranges of between 410-450 dpa for Lichfield District and 240-265 dpa for Tamworth remained within an acceptable margin of tolerance despite changes to the growth forecasts. For Cannock Chase, the situation was complicated by the significantly lower levels of population growth forecast by the ONS in their 2011-based (interim) SNPP. This resulted in a level of housing need lower than the bottom end of the 250-280 dwelling range suggested in the previous study.

2.15 NLP suggested that taking this evidence into account would point to a range of between 220 dpa and 250 dpa for Cannock Chase District. This decreased the overall south-east Staffordshire need to between 870 dpa and 965 dpa.

2.16 It was considered that this would meet need and demand arising from future projected demographic change within the three districts, but would also (in the case of Lichfield in particular) support some economic growth, and would deliver affordable housing to respond to (at least some of) identified local needs.

Changes since the Original 2011 HEaDROOM and the 2012 and 2013 Updates

Policy/Guidance Changes

National Planning Policy Framework

2.17 In March 2012 the government published the National Planning Policy Framework [Framework]. This publication was not an adopted document at the time of the March 2011 study but was considered as part of the December 2012 update.

2.18 The Government’s policy approach to planning has been focused on applying the principles of ‘localism’ to give Local Planning Authorities [LPAs] greater autonomy in planning for housing, and in particular setting local housing requirements in their local plans. This presents a major opportunity for local authorities to shape the agenda for their localities, but with it comes new responsibilities.

2.19 Following the revocation of Regional Strategies [RS] and the consequent removal of the housing requirements and job targets therein, it now falls upon LPAs to establish local development requirements.

2.20 The Framework states that LPAs should: “Use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the housing market area, as far as is consistent with the policies set out in this Framework …” [§47]

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2.21 The Framework [§159] outlines the evidence required to underpin a local housing target, and concludes that LPAs should: “Prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment [SHMA] to assess their full housing needs, working with neighbouring authorities where HMAs cross administrative boundaries. The SHMA should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the plan period which:

• Meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change;

• Addresses the needs for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the needs of different groups in the community (such as, but not limited to, families with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own homes); and

• Cater for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this demand.”

2.22 The starting point for plan-making is to use the evidence base to objectively assess the need for development within an area and then seek to meet that in full, where it is appropriate to do so. This is underlined in The Framework which identifies in respect of plan-making that local plans should, “meet objectively assessed needs … unless any adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits…” [§14]

2.23 As such, it is clear that LPAs should plan to meet their full, properly assessed, housing needs for their area unless it can be properly considered that there is an overwhelming case to justify a lower level of provision, for example due to insurmountable constraints on environmental and / or infrastructure capacity grounds.

2.24 With the planning system expected to do ‘ everything it can’ to support economic growth and strategic plans required to address any potential barriers to achieving this, Local Plans need to demonstrate how they are effectively and positively planning to support the economy in their local area, including delivering sufficient housing to ensure economic potential is realised.

2.25 Where objectively assess development needs [OAN] are evidenced, but are not achievable within the boundaries of a Local Authority, the Framework sets out a requirement to plan positively across boundaries to meet the need elsewhere within the market area. This ensures that any shortfall in provision in one authority area is still met in another local authority area. This is practically achieved through the statutory ‘duty to cooperate’.

The National Planning Practice Guidance [The Practice Guidance]

2.26 The Practice Guidance was published in March 2014 which followed the completion of the latest Supporting Statement produced for Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth in November 2012.

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2.27 The Practice Guidance states that the assessment of development needs should be an objective assessment, based on facts and unbiased evidence. Plan makers should not apply constraints to the overall assessment of need, such as limitations imposed by the supply of land for new development, historic under performance infrastructure or environmental constraints. However, these considerations will need to be addressed when bringing evidence bases together to identify specific policies within development plans. [§2a-004-20140306]

2.28 The Practice Guidance advises that HMAs can be broadly defined by using three different sources of information as follows: house prices and rates of change in house prices; household migration and search patterns; and, contextual data (e.g. travel to work area boundaries, retail and school catchment areas). [§2a-011- 20140306]

2.29 The Guidance states that household projections published by CLG should provide the starting point estimate of overall housing need. [§2a-015-20140306]

2.30 It also states that the Government’s official population and household projections are generally updated every two years to take account of the latest demographic trends. Wherever possible, local needs assessments should be informed by the latest available information. However, whilst Local Plans should be kept up-to- date, and a meaningful change in the housing situation should be considered in this context, the Guidance clarifies that “this does not automatically mean that housing assessments are rendered outdated every time new projections are issued ” [§2a-016-20140306.

2.31 The Guidance advises that housing need, as suggested by household projections (the starting point), should be adjusted to reflect appropriate market signals, as well as other market indicators of the balance between the demand for and supply of dwellings. Relevant signals may include land prices, house prices, rents, affordability (the ratio between lower quartile house prices and the lower quartile income or earnings can be used to assess the relative affordability of housing), rate of development and, overcrowding [§2a-019-20140306].

2.32 In areas where an upward adjustment is required, plan makers should set this adjustment at a level that is reasonable. The more significant the affordability constraints (as reflected in rising prices and rents, and worsening affordability ratio) and the stronger other indicators of high demand (e.g. the differential between land prices), the larger the improvement in affordability needed and, therefore, the larger the additional supply response should be [§2a-020- 20140306].

2.33 The Guidance recognises that market signals are affected by a number of economic factors, and plan makers should not attempt to estimate the precise impact of an increase in housing supply. Rather they should increase planned supply by an amount that, on reasonable assumptions and consistent with principles of sustainable development, could be expected to improve affordability, and monitor the response of the market over the plan period [§2a-020-20140306].

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Plan Progress

2.34 The Cannock Chase Local Plan (Part 1) 2014 was formally adopted by CCDC on 11 th June 2014. Policy CP6 sets out the housing delivery target of 5,300 new houses in the District between 2006 and 2028 (the plan period), which equates to 241 dpa. The target is set to not only to contribute to meeting the minimum housing requirement identified for south-east Staffordshire but also recognises the highly sensitive and constrained environment of the District. In addition, a strategic development allocation to the east of Rugeley within the Lichfield District Local Plan contributes 500 houses to assist in meeting the housing needs arising in Rugeley and Brereton in line with the south-east Staffordshire strategy.

2.35 The Lichfield Local Plan was subject to a High Court Challenge which took place on the 1 st and 2 nd July 2014. The High Court Challenge case has now been dismissed and the Examination into the Lichfield District Local Plan has resumed, with the hearings taking place between 9th and 27 th October 2014. Core Policy 6 of the Main Modifications to the Local Plan, made subsequent to the 2013 Examination in Public [EiP], now seeks to deliver at least 10,030 new homes in Lichfield District between 2008 and 2029. This equates to 478 dpa, and includes 500 dwellings to meet Tamworth’s need and a further 500 to meet needs arising from Rugeley (in Cannock Chase District). Essentially then, LDC is seeking to deliver upwards of 430 dpa to meet its own needs within its boundaries.

2.36 Consultation on the revised Tamworth Local Plan took place over a six-week period from 31 March 2014 and a second consultation took place in autumn 2014. Policy SP5 of the draft Tamworth Local Plan states that within the Borough, a net increase of at least 4,250 dwellings will be delivered within the plan period (2006- 2031) at an average of 170 dpa. This recognises that the housing OAN is for 6,250 dwellings (250 dpa), and therefore a further 2,000 dwellings is required to fully meet Tamworth’s needs, of which 1,000 would be located in Lichfield and North Warwickshire Districts. This leaves a shortfall of a further 1,000 dwellings. The Plan recognises that further work is required to assess options for Tamworth’s growth to determine the most sustainable and deliverable options.

Definition of the HMA

2.37 NLPs earlier work identified strong relationships between the three districts of Tamworth, Cannock Chase and Lichfield in terms of migration and travel to work flows. As such, the Inspector’s report into the Cannock Chase Local Plan (14 th February 2014 1) confirmed that treating Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth as one HMA is an acceptable and pragmatic approach: “There is some concern about the nature and extent of the housing market area chosen to assess housing requirements for Cannock Chase district. The joint Housing Needs Study [CD55] covers Southern Staffordshire, including Cannock Chase, Tamworth and Lichfield districts, which the consultants confirm is an appropriate HMA with strong inter-linkages. In earlier studies, undertaken for the

1 Report to Cannock Chase District Council by Stephen J Pratt BA (Hons) MRTPI an Inspector appointed by the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government 14 February 2014

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former WMRSS, Cannock Chase District formed part of the much larger C3 Central housing market area, grouped with the Black Country authorities. However, housing markets in this part of the West Midlands are complex and overlapping, and I do not regard the joint Housing Needs Study as being fundamentally flawed simply because it does not cover a wider area, including Birmingham, the West Midlands conurbation and other Staffordshire authorities, particularly given the extent of collaboration and co-operation undertaken as part of the Duty to Co-operate. There are strong housing market and commuting links with Lichfield and Tamworth, recognised in the joint Housing Needs Study, and the Plan includes commitments to address Birmingham’s future housing needs, if this is found necessary as a result of further studies” [§38].

2.38 The Inspector’s Report on the examination into LDC’s Core Strategy development plan 2 document does not critique or challenge the notion of Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth as a self-contained HMA.

2.39 This demonstrates that the consideration of Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth combining to create a self-contained HMA is a sound approach deemed acceptable by the Inspectorate.

2.40 On this basis Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth can be considered as a single HMA for the purpose of considering housing needs in the context of the Tamworth Local Plan.

2.41 Notwithstanding, an objective assessment of need for Tamworth will still fully account for cross-boundary dynamics, due to modelling assumptions concerning future migration patterns, and there remain strong linkages between Tamworth Borough and Birmingham as well as Tamworth Borough and North Warwickshire. As regards the latter relationship, there is clearly a degree of overlap between the respective HMAs, notably between Tamworth and the north-westernmost settlements of Warwickshire (i.e. Dordon and Polesworth) which are particularly close to the administrative boundary. However, for the purposes of defining a local HMA it is considered that only the north-easternmost villages of NWBC have notable linkages with Tamworth, and that such linkages are localised and not so strong as to indicate that the HMA boundary should be adjusted.

2.42 In this regard, a Memorandum of Understanding (May 2012) was agreed between the three local authorities of TBC, LDC and North Warwickshire Borough Council [NWBC] to accommodate / address Tamworth’s needs / shortfall. This has been quantified as being 500 dwellings to be catered for in North Warwickshire, and a policy to this effect has been included in NWBC’s emerging Core Strategy (Submission Version – September 2013). Whilst no sites are explicitly identified to meet Tamworth’s needs in North Warwickshire, the Borough’s Draft Pre- Submission Site Allocations Plan (June 2014) currently allocates sites for 617 dwellings in and around the villages of Polesworth and Dordon, which could be seen as helping to meet Tamworth Borough’s unmet housing needs.

2 Report to Lichfield District Council by Lead Inspector John R. Mattocks BSc DipTP MRTPI and Assistant Inspector Simon J. Emerson BSc DipTP MRTPI 26 July 2006

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2.43 The role of housing allocations in these villages in meeting some of Tamworth’s housing needs was addressed by the Inspector at the North Warwickshire Local Plan Core Strategy Examination. His report 3 concluded the following: “The Core Strategy does not identify a location for the Tamworth 500; rather it is to be distributed across the Borough. I heard that travel to work records show that residents of all bar one ward in the Borough commute to Tamworth. However, it seems to me that the closer a development is to Tamworth the more likely it is that it will serve needs arising from Tamworth. Policy NW4 allocates 440 dwellings to Polesworth and Dordon, 180 to Grendon and Baddesley Ensor, 50 to Kingsbury, 40 to Austrey and 30 to Wood End (740 in total). All are a short drive to Tamworth and there is nothing in the Plan to phase or control when these houses may be built. I do not see, therefore, how Policy NW3 would force developers to look to sites in Tamworth first.” [§17]

Data Releases

2.44 The original Housing Needs Study and SHMA report (May 2012); the November 2012 update (Supporting Statement); and the most recent update ‘Implications of the 2011-based CLG household projections’ (May 2013), incorporate demographic modelling data from the ONS’s 2008-based SNPP, the 2010-based SNPP and the interim 2011-based SNPP respectively.

2.45 Since that time the demographic data which underpinned NLP’s modelling work for CCDC, LDC and TBC has been extensively updated by both ONS and CLG.

th 2.46 This new data includes the 2012-based SNPP, published by ONS on 29 May 2014. It replaces 4 the 2011-based (interim) SNPP equivalents (published in September 2013). The latest projections are based on the 2012 Mid-Year population estimates published in June 2013 (which are themselves rolled forward from the 2011 mid-year population estimates and ultimately the 2011 Census) and a set of underlying demographic assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and migration, based on local trends.

2.47 As with previous projections, the 2012-based SNPP are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government or local policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour 5. However, unlike the 2008-based and 2010-based SNPPs, the trends for the 2012- based projections are able to fully take into account information from the 2011 Census.

2.48 The data is also considered to be more robust than its immediate predecessor, the 2011-based (interim) SNPP, as the latter assumed a continuation of the estimated trends in fertility, mortality and migration as used in the 2010-based SNPP. The trends from the 2010-based projections were used because a revised historic data series was not available to update the assumptions.

3Report on the examination into the North Warwickshire Local Plan: Core Strategy, dated 24 th September 2014 4ONS (29 May 2014): 2012-based SNPP for England: Statistical Bulletin page 1 5 Ibid, page 2

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2.49 As described in the user guidance section of the ONS’s 2011-based SNPP Statistical Bulletin (2012), this limited the robustness of the data as 6: 1 The fertility rates used to set the assumptions are based on birth registrations and population estimates up to 2010. However, population estimates for women of childbearing age were too low over the decade to mid-2010, as the 2011 Census showed more women aged 16 to 44 than estimates rolled forward from the 2001 Census. This means the fertility rates used to set the 2010-based SNPP assumptions were too high, leading to an over-projection of births at the national level; 2 There was a similar issue with the mortality rates, since the number of older people (who are most affected by mortality rates), was estimated to be lower in the 2011 mid-year estimates than in the estimates rolled forward from the 2001 Census. The impact was not as great for deaths as for births, but it also resulted in a projected increase in the population; 3 Differences in the age structure at local authority level also resulted in changes to projected levels of internal migration. This is because migration rates based on historic trend data were applied to the new population base. Where the size and structure of the new population base in a local authority was very different from the 2010-based projections for 2011, particularly at ages most likely to migrate, the applied migration rate over or under- estimated the number of people moving from an area.

2.50 As such, the ability of the 2012-based SNPP to incorporate not only the 2011 Census, but also updated demographic assumptions concerning fertility, mortality and migration, makes it significantly more robust for the purposes of demographic modelling.

2.51 In this regard, they can be considered to provide the best estimates of the future population of English regions and local authorities currently available.

Comparison of 2012-based SNPP with earlier projections

2.52 We would expect population projections to be different over time, but larger differences are likely to be due to the fact that the trends used in the 2012-based SNPP are based on a historical population series rebased following the 2011 Census, while the trends used in the 2011-based SNPP are based on an older population series that does not reflect the findings of the 2011 Census. Other reasons include: 1 changes in the population estimate used as the base year in the projections, between mid-2011 and mid-2012; 2 changes in the trends (births, deaths and migration); 3 changes in assumptions for international migration at a national level 7; 4 changes in the methodology used by ONS to compile the data 8.

6 ONS (28 September 2012): Interim 2011-based SNPP for England, pages 2-3 7 ONS Questions and Answers: 2012-based Subnational Population Projections page 5 29th May 2014 8 Methodology: 2012-based SNPP (ONS, 29 May 2014)

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Implications of the 2011 Census

2.53 Table 2.1 sets out the 2011 Mid-Year Population Estimates for Tamworth, rolled forward from the 2011 Census. This indicates that the ONS considered that Tamworth’s population would increase by 2,1,606 (2%) over the ten years following the 2001 Census. However, the results of the 2011 Census revealed that the ONS’s model under-estimated the level of population growth in Tamworth by 693.

2.54 These assumptions underpinned the modelling of the 2008 and 2010-based SNPPs and will have had an important impact on the TFR, SMR and migration rates in the 2011-based SNPP. The Table indicates that the disparities were even more pronounced for some neighbouring authorities, most notably Birmingham where population growth was underestimated by 27,207 and Walsall (-11,158).

Table 2.1 Changes in population estimates – 2011 base date Mid 2001 Mid -2011 Difference Resident Mid 2011 rolled- Census-based Census-based between 2011 Population forward estimate (official) (official) estimate MYE and Census Tamworth 74,596 76,202 76,895 -693 Cannock Chase 92,165 94,970 97,582 -2,612 Lichfield 93,229 99,081 100,911 -1,830 Birmingham 984,642 1,047,076 1,074,283 -27,207 East Staffordshire 103,938 109,851 113,858 -4,007 North 61,788 61,842 62,089 -247 Warwickshire Solihull 199,574 206,514 206,856 -342 South 105,942 106,669 108,318 -1,649 Staffordshire Stafford 120,712 126,284 130,895 -4,611 Walsall 253,333 258,366 269,524 -11,158

Source: ONS Components of difference underlying the revised mid-2002 to mid-2010 population estimates (30th April 2013)

Population Changes

2.55 Figure 2.1 compares the ONS SNPP data for the years 2008, 2010, 2011 (interim) and 2012 for Tamworth. The graph clearly illustrates the divergence between the projections.

2.56 In Tamworth, the 2010 and interim 2011-based SNPP are virtually identical. The rate of population growth estimated in the 2008-based projections (6%) is very similar to the 2012-based projections (7%) albeit it starts from a lower base. In 2031 the population is estimated to reach 82,500 based on the 2012-based projections; 86,000 using 2010-based projections; and 80,900 using the 2008- based projections.

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Figure 2.1 Comparison ONS 2008/2010/2011/2012 based SNPPs: Tamworth

Source: NLP Analysis / ONS 2008/2010/2011/2012-based SNPPs

2.57 Table 2.2 presents the estimated total population in Tamworth in 2012, 2021 and 2031 based on the 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012-based SNPPs and indicates the difference between the estimates over time.

Table 2.2 Comparison of Population Projections (rounded)

2008-Based 2010-Based 2011-Based 2012-Based Difference SNPP SNPP SNPP SNPP between 2010- (Interim) based and 2012-based SNPP Tamworth 2012 76,100 77,300 77,400 77,100 -200 2021 78,600 82,000 81,900 80,000 -2,000 2031 80,900 86,000 - 82,500 -3,500

Source: ONS SNPP 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012-based population projections

2.58 The 2012-based projections for Tamworth demonstrate that previous projections have overestimated population growth.

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Figure 2.2 Tamworth Population Profiles – Comparison of 2010-based SNPP & 2012 equivalents

Source: ONS/NLP

2.59 In Tamworth, the 2010-based projections overestimated the number of people under 45 years of age. Of particular note was the overestimation of those aged between 20 and 45 (both male and female). In the older age categories, both projections were broadly similar, although males aged 60-69 were slightly under- represented in the 2010-based SNPP. There is fairly limited divergence in terms of the numbers of residents in each age cohort under 70 for both sexes.

Components of Change

Natural Change

2.60 For Tamworth the 2010-based SNPP indicated that over the period 2013-2031, births would outnumber deaths by 456 annually. This is identical to the figure recorded in the interim 2011-based projections, but higher than the 378 forecast using the 2012-based projections.

2.61 The reasons behind the change in natural change between the 2010-based SNPP and 2012-based SNPP are likely to be complex, but could be at least partly due to the under-estimation of population change since the 2001 Census by ONS in Tamworth.

2.62 The fertility rates used to set the assumptions are based on birth registrations and population estimates up to 2010/2012 respectively for the 2010-based SNPP and 2012-based SNPP. However, as we have seen, the ONS population estimates of the number of women of childbearing age were lower over the decade to mid- 2010, than was ultimately revealed in the 2011 Census. The latter showed more women aged 16 to 44 than estimates rolled forward from the 2001 Census. This could suggest that the derived fertility rates used in the 2010-based SNPP assumptions were too high, leading to an over-estimation of births. This will also

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have affected the 2011 based (interim) SNPP, which used the same TFRs as the 2010-based SNPP.

Migration

2.63 In Tamworth Borough there is limited variation between the 2010 (200+) and 2012 (100+) projections for net international out-migration and international in-migration is projected to be the same (100+).

2.64 There is also limited difference between the international in-migration and out- migration. Therefore the impact on scenarios caused by international migration is unlikely to be significantly different, based on the 2012 SNPP alone.

Table 2.3 Changes to Migration: 2010 vs. 2012 ONS Population Projections

ONS 2008 -based ONS 2010 -based ONS 2011 -based ONS 2012 -based SNPP SNPP SNPP SNPP Tamworth Domestic Migration In 2,922 2,933 2,944 2,744 Domestic Migration Out 2,900 2,967 2,967 2,800 International Migration In 100 200 200 100 International Migration Out 100 100 167 100 Net Annual Average Migration -67 78 44 -56

Source: ONS 2008/2010/2011/2012 SNPPs Note: Rounding errors - totals do not add

Household Projections

2.65 The 2011-based (interim) household projections produced by CLG represent the most up-to-date indication of household change currently available at a national, regional and local level. The projections incorporate information from the 2011 Census, and supersede the 2008-based household projections.

2.66 It is important to note that there are a variety of limitations with the projections, not least the fact that these are demographic and trend-based only. They do not take into account any policy changes that may affect actual household formation in future.

2.67 The most obvious statistical shortcoming is that the projections only span a 10- year period, which presents difficulties for LPAs looking to plan for a minimum of 15 years into the future. Furthermore, although Census 2011 data was used where possible, where data was not available (for example, household representative rates by age and marital status) information was used from the Labour Force Survey data or from previous projections instead. In this regard: "The household projections are derived from the SNPP, so any limitations with the interim population projections would also need to be taken into account when interpreting household projections. For example, population projections generally update underlying demographic assumptions on fertility and migration in line with new available data, but for the 2011-based SNPP trends from the 2010-based projections were used." 9

9 CLG (2013): 2011-Based Interim Household Projections – Quality Report

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2.68 The extent to which the associated trends in household formation will continue over the longer term is unclear. In their Quality Report accompanying the new household projections, CLG cautions against simply rolling forward the household growth projected for 2011 to 2021 over the longer term beyond 2021.

2.69 Instead they identify: "There are also particular limitations in the use of the 2011-based interim household projections. The projections only span for a 10-year period so users that require a longer time span would need to judge whether recent household formation trends are likely to continue ”

2.70 Looking at the headline household projections for Tamworth, household growth between 2011 and 2021 is very similar for both projections, with the 2008-based projections indicating growth of 230 households per annum, and 226 annually based on the (interim) 2011-based projections.

2.71 Figure 2.3 compares the 2006, 2008 and 2011 based household projections for Tamworth Borough.

2.72 The 2006 projections are significantly higher than both the 2008-based and interim 2011 based projections and there is steady growth, whereas there are plateaus to growth projected in the 2008-based projections. Figure 2.3 illustrates that by 2021 the number of households projected by 2008-based (34,171) and interim 2011-based projections (34,129) are very similar.

Figure 2.3 Tamworth Comparison of Household Projections

Source: NLP/CLG

2.73 Overall, whilst the 2008-based projections are generally closely aligned with the interim 2011 based projections, the 2006 household projections suggest much stronger growth rates.

2.74 In terms of the weight that can be placed on the 2011-based interim SNHP, it should be noted that recent household formation rates between 2001 and 2011 are likely to reflect constraints on housing availability and affordability (both through supply-side factors such as reduced house building and demand-side

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factors such as mortgage availability and household incomes, both associated with the recession). This will have placed constraints on new households forming in the same manner as observed in previous trends, potentially leading to higher rates of concealed households, higher rates of household sharing and factors such as young adults staying at their parental home for much longer than has been seen historically.

2.75 Figure 2.4 illustrates trends in household formation from 1991 to 2033 for the Borough. The trend is consistently towards smaller household sizes. However, between 2001 and 2011 the reduction in household size slowed slightly in the authority, which is likely to have been due to constraints on housing availability and affordability, (consistent with trends nationally).

2.76 In Tamworth the 2011-based SNHP continues to project an increasing household formation rate and a continuing decrease in household size, albeit at a relatively slower rate than projected in the previous 2008-based household projections.

Figure 2.4 Tamworth Household Size

Source: Census 2001, Census 2011 and ONS/CLG Population and Household Estimates and Projections

2.77 Age specific projections of household 'headship rates' are applied to the projected populations for the authority to arrive at an estimate of the future number of households. NLP’s approach utilises the latest ONS 2012-based SNPP and the headship rates from the CLG 2011-based household projections to 2021.

2.78 It has been assumed that post 2021, the 2008-based headship rates are generally applied (the ‘index’ approach). Even this indexed approach may be considered a conservative estimate as the Cambridge Centre for Housing & Planning Research

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(CCHPR – the academics and demographic experts behind the collaborative ‘What Homes Where’ toolkit) have expressed the view that formation rates would be expected to rise as a result of economic growth in the short term, and that therefore there is merit in not following the CLG projections all the way to 2021. Instead, they consider that economic growth before 2021 would result in pent-up demand being realised and new household formation occurring and on this basis suggest that, for the purposes of assessing housing needs, CLG 2011-based interim headship rates should only be followed to 2015 but then should deviate to an accelerated rate for a 10 year ‘catch up’ period, before rates settling down to a level that follows historic patterns.

2.79 Furthermore, the Town and Country Planning Association (TCPA) Tomorrow Series Paper 16 entitled ‘New Estimates of Housing Demand and Need in England 2011 to 2031’ (2013) by Alan Holmans states the following with regards to projecting forward household formation rates post 2021: “The central question for the household projection is whether what happened in 2001-11 was a structural break from a 40-year trend; or whether household formation was forced downwards by economic and housing market pressures that are likely to ease with time. At the time of the 2011 Census, the British economy was still in recession and the housing market was depressed. The working assumption in this study is that a considerable part but not all of the 375,000 shortfall of households relative to trend was due to the state of the economy and the housing market. 200,000 is attributed to over-projection of households due to the much larger proportion of recent immigrants in the population, whose household formation rates are lower than for the population as a whole. This effect will not be reversed. The other 175,000 is attributed to the economy and the state of the housing market and is assumed to gradually reverse.” [page 5]

2.80 This report identifies that just under half of the suppression seen in household formation rates between 2001 and 2011 is attributable to the economic downturn with the other half attributed to the culture of recent immigrants forming larger households than seen historically in England.

2.81 Drawing upon the above evidence, beyond 2021, and as discussed above, NLP has applied the rate of annual change in household formation from the 2008- based household projections, to reflect such long term trends and in the absence of other long-term projections of household formation - an ‘Indexed Projection’. Importantly, this avoids rolling forward the impact of recessionary (and constrained housing supply) factors upon household formation into the future, thereby avoiding an assessment of housing need that would be commensurate with a policy that plans towards such adverse household and housing outcomes continuing (contrary to The Framework). However, taking account of the above CCHPR report it is clear that NLP’s indexed approach is a conservative estimate as it is not until post 2021 that trends are projected to ‘catch up’. Hence a ‘partial catch up’ scenario has also been modelled as one of the sensitivity tests.

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Figure 2.5 Tamworth Indexed Headship Rates

Source: CLG 2008/2011-based Household Projections / NLP Analysis

2.82 As illustrated above, in Tamworth there is a sharp decline in the headship rates in the over 85 age group although the rates for younger age groups are expected to stay relatively stable. As might be anticipated, headship rates are significantly greater for the older age cohorts.

10 2.83 These age specific projections of household ‘headship rates ’ are applied to the projected population of the Borough to arrive at an estimate of the future number of households in the area.

Summary

2.84 In summary: 1 In Tamworth the 2012-based projections have a similar rate of change as the previous 2008-based SNPP, although both are significantly lower than the rate of change projected in the 2010 and (interim) 2011-based SNPPs. 2 The analysis indicates that the latest population projections for the Borough are significantly lower than the previous 2010 and 2011-based population projections that underpinned the most recent iterations of NLP’s HEaDROOM analysis for Tamworth.

10 Headship Rates are defined as the proportion of a population that will form a ‘head of a household’. Headship rates by age and sex are applied to the population by age and sex to derive a total number of households (by household type). As the eldest male in the household is classed as the head of the household, the older age male cohorts tend to have very high headship rates, whilst the headship rate for those under the age of 15 should be zero. Headship Rates and Household Representative Rates are inter- changeable terminology.

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3.0 Market Signals

Introduction

3.1 The Practice Guidance indicates that once an assessment of need based upon household projections is established, this should be adjusted to reflect appropriate market signals and indicators of the balance between the demand for and supply of housing.

3.2 The Guidance explicitly sets out six market signals [§2a-019-20140306]: 1 land prices; 2 house prices; 3 rents; 4 affordability; 5 rate of development; and, 6 overcrowding.

3.3 It goes on to indicate that appropriate comparison of these should be made with upward adjustment made where such market signals indicate an imbalance in supply and demand, and the need to increase housing supply to meet demand and tackle affordability issues: “This includes comparison with longer term trends (both in absolute levels and rates of change) in the: housing market area; similar demographic and economic areas; and nationally. A worsening trend in any of these indicators will require upward adjustment to planned housing numbers compared to ones based solely on household projections. Volatility in some indicators requires care to be taken: in these cases rolling average comparisons may be helpful to identify persistent changes and trends. In areas where an upward adjustment is required, plan makers should set this adjustment at a level that is reasonable. The more significant the affordability constraints (as reflected in rising prices and rents, and worsening affordability ratio) and the stronger other indicators of high demand (e.g. the differential between land prices), the larger the improvement in affordability needed and, therefore, the larger the additional supply response should be.” [§2a-020- 20140306]

3.4 The Guidance sets out a clear and logical ‘test’ for the circumstances in which objectively assessed needs (including meeting housing demand) will be in excess of demographic-led projections.

Housing Market Indicators

3.5 Each of the housing market indicators is taken and applied to data for Tamworth Borough.

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Land Prices

3.6 The most readily available and nationally-consistent data on unequipped agricultural land values or residential building land prices for Tamworth is unavailable from the VOA. The VOA only covers major centres or areas which generate sufficient activity to determine a market pattern so data for smaller neighbouring authorities is not available.

House Prices

3.7 The Practice Guidance identifies that longer term changes in house prices may suggest an imbalance between the demand for and supply of housing. Although it suggests using mix-adjusted prices and / or House Price Indices, these are not available at local authority level on a consistent basis, and therefore for considering market signals in the Borough, price paid data is the most reasonable indicator.

3.8 Land registry price paid data suggests current (2014) median prices in Tamworth are £140,000. This compares to £149,000 across Staffordshire and £185,000 nationally (Table 3.1). The median house price in Tamworth is 25% lower than the median national price.

3.9 These prices illustrate that the housing stock in Tamworth is relatively cheap when compared to national house prices as a whole. The data represents the dwelling price across both new and existing housing.

Table 3.1 Median Dwelling Prices (2014)

Dwelling Prices Tamworth £140,000 Staffordshire £149,000 England £187,000 Source: Land Registry Price Paid Date (2014)

3.10 CLG publish series data on median house prices based on the same Land Registry price paid data series. This currently runs from 1996 to 2013 and is illustrated in Figure 3.1. It indicates that Tamworth has experienced consistently lower house prices than the country as a whole.

3.11 The national rate of change is 213%, higher growth than Tamworth (163%). The rate of change for the Borough is also lower than for Staffordshire as a whole (174%). This demonstrates that even though the rate of change in Tamworth has been significant, this is still below the rate of change seen across Staffordshire and nationally.

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Figure 3.1 Median House Prices

Source: CLG Live Table 586

Table 3.2 Median House Prices and Rate of Change

Median House Median House Rate of Change Price 1996 Price 2013 Tamworth £50,500 £137,950 +163% Staffordshire £52,000 £147,000 +174% England £57,500 £187,000 +213%

Source: CLG Live Table 586/NLP Analysis

3.12 In 2013, median house prices in Tamworth were 26% lower than the national average. Tamworth is ranked as being the 79 th cheapest place to live in England.

3.13 As set out in the Practice Guidance, higher house prices than comparator areas and long term rises tend to indicate an imbalance between the demand for housing and the supply.

Rents

3.14 On a similar basis, high and increasing rents in an area are a further signal of stress in the housing market. Median rents in Tamworth are £550 per month, with prices ranging from £450 per month for a 1 bed flat, to £850 per month for a 4+ bed house. The median rent paid in Staffordshire is £504.

3.15 Series data for rents from VOA statistics is only available for Q2 2011 to Q1 2013. However, the VOA data demonstrates that median rents in Tamworth have stayed relatively static since 2011. This contrasts sharply with national figures, where there has been a growth in rents of 4.4%.

3.16 The static rent level in Tamworth suggests that affordability within the private market rental sector has remained relatively stable over the past couple of years. Reduced rents or relatively cheap rents compared to rising house prices in the private rental market will make this form of tenure more attractive and more likely

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to become occupied by households in affordable housing need. In other words, the low rents in the private rental sector may have a role to play in meeting affordable housing need in Tamworth. However, nationally, real incomes have declined which worsens affordability of the private market sector even with relatively static prices. This is likely to cause an underrepresentation of the scale of the pressures on the private rental market in the Borough.

Affordability

3.17 The former CLG SHMA Practice Guidance defines affordability as a ‘ measure of whether housing may be afforded by certain groups of households’ [Annex G, page 36]. The former Practice Guidance concludes that assessing affordability involves comparing costs against the ability to pay, with the relevant indicator being the ratio between lower quartile house prices and lower quartile earnings. Using CLG affordability ratios, Figure 3.2 illustrates affordability ratios for Tamworth, Staffordshire and England. It demonstrates that over the past 15 years, the ratio of lower quartile house prices to lower quartile earnings in Tamworth has been variable.

3.18 Affordability ratios (i.e. the ratio of median house price to median earnings) in Tamworth have increased from 3.74 in 1997 to 6.77 in 2013. Affordability has therefore worsened by more than a half over this period.

3.19 Tamworth has relatively poor affordability with the worst affordability ratio in the Borough being over 8 in 2006. This is combined with relatively low median house prices in Tamworth which are £47,000 below the median house price in England.

3.20 In 2013, the lower quartile house price to earnings ratio was 6.77 in Tamworth compared to 6.06 in Staffordshire and 6.45 nationally. Affordability has worsened in Tamworth since 2012, highlighting an underlying affordability issue in the Borough.

Figure 3.2 Affordability Ratios

Source: CLG Live table 576

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Rate of Development

3.21 The rate of development is intended to be a supply-side indicator of previous under-delivery. The Practice Guidance has the following to say regarding how past under-delivery should be factored into the establishment of OAN: "Formation rates may have been suppressed historically by under-supply and worsening affordability of housing. The assessment will therefore need to reflect the consequences of past under-delivery of housing. As household projections do not reflect unmet housing need, LPAs should take a view based on available evidence of the extent to which household formation rates are or have been constrained by supply." [§2a-016-20140306]

3.22 This is clarified further: “If the historic rate of development shows that actual supply falls below planned supply, future supply should be increased to reflect the likelihood of under- delivery of a plan .” [§2a-019-20140306]

3.23 The rate of development is therefore a market signal relating to the quantity of past under-supply.

3.24 There is no definitive approach to identifying levels of under-delivery, or backlog. One way to overcome this is to compare past completions against the relevant housing requirement for that period; assuming that this housing requirement was a reasonable and fully tested basis for that period in order to meet development needs. This provides an indicator of the extent to which there may have been previous unmet needs. A recent High Court ruling between Zurich Assurance Ltd vs Winchester City Council and South Downs National Park Authority of 18 March 2014 11 confirms that this can be used as an indicator only and not the definitive quantity to which housing need should be uplifted to account for unmet need.

3.25 In Tamworth the relevant ‘planned supply’ is dictated by the requirement within the West Midlands RS. The RS identified an allocation of 2,900 dwellings ( 145 dpa ) within that authority’s boundaries, although a further 1,000 dwellings is identified in Lichfield District to meet Tamworth’s needs. The September 2009 Panel report suggest that this should be increased to 4,000 dwellings within Tamworth Borough, although this was never taken forward for adoption (page 84).

3.26 Figure 3.3 illustrates net housing delivery in the HMA for Tamworth Borough since 2000/01 against the respective housing targets.

11 Zurich Assurance Ltd vs Winchester City Council and South Downs National Park Authority, 18 March 2014 [§95 Case Number CO/5057/2013]

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Figure 3.3 Net Housing Delivery

450

400

350

300

250

200 Tamworth Target 150

100

50

0

Source: Data provided by Tamworth Council Officers

3.27 In Tamworth there was a peak in housing delivery in 2006/07 but since 2009/10 the Borough has failed to meet the RS housing target.

3.28 Net delivery against these targets is shown in Table 3.3 and Table 3.4.

Table 3.3 Delivery of Housing against the Emerging Local Plan Target

Year Tamworth Borough Emerging Delivery (Net) Over Provision Target 2006/07 425 170 +255 2007/08 198 170 +28 2008/09 211 170 +41 2009/10 182 170 +12 2010/11 139 170 -31 2011/12 69 170 -101 2012/13 143 170 -27 2013/14 48 170 -122 Total 1,415 1,360 +55 Source: NLP/TBC

Table 3.4 Delivery of Housing against the RS Target

Year Tamworth Borough Delivery (Net) RS Target Over Provision 2006/07 425 145 280 2007/08 198 145 53 2008/09 211 145 66 2009/10 182 145 37 2010/11 139 145 -6 2011/12 69 145 -76 2012/13 143 145 -2 2013/14 48 145 -97 Total 1,415 1,160 +255 Source: NLP/TBC

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3.29 If tested against the most recently adopted (and independently tested) development plan (i.e. the West Midlands RS 2008), then Tamworth has over- delivered (by +255 dwellings). If the emerging Local Plan target is used, the level of over-delivery is smaller, at +55 dwellings.

Overcrowding

3.30 Indicators on overcrowding, sharing households and homelessness demonstrate unmet need for housing within an area. The Practice Guidance suggests that long-term increases in the number of such households may be a signal that planned housing OAN should be increased. [§2a-019-20140306]

3.31 The 2011 Census includes data on household occupancy. The occupancy rating provides a measure of whether a household's accommodation is overcrowded or under-occupied based upon the number of rooms in a household's accommodation. The ages of the household members and their relationships to each other are used to derive the number of rooms they require, based on a standard formula. The number of rooms required is subtracted from the number of rooms in the household's accommodation to obtain the occupancy rating. An occupancy rating of -1 implies that a household has one fewer room / bedroom than required, whereas +1 implies that they have one more room / bedroom than the standard requirement.

3.32 Table 3.5 presents overcrowding against the occupancy rating in Tamworth (2011 data) and indicates that just a relatively low proportion of households are over occupied. In Tamworth 4.64% of households are living in a dwelling that is too small for their household size and composition. This is not particularly severe when compared to 8.74% nationally and 6.81% in the West Midlands.

Table 3.5 Overcrowding: Household Room Occupancy Rating 2001 2011 Total -1 room -1 room Total -1 room -1 room Households occupancy or occupancy Households occupancy or occupancy less or less (%) less or less (%) Tamworth 29,395 1,293 4.40% 31,617 1,466 4.64% West Midlands 2,153,672 121,130 5.62% 2,294,909 156,344 6.81% England 20,451,427 1,457,512 7.13% 22,063,368 1,928,596 8.74% Source: Census 2001 / Census 2011

3.33 Although overcrowding is relatively low, levels of overcrowding increased in the Borough between 2001 and 2011. This trend is likely to be a symptom associated with affordability in Tamworth.

3.34 Due to unaffordability (as well as the shortfall in supply and relative demand), people are either willing to accept sub-optimal living conditions (e.g. living in smaller houses to manage costs) or are forced into accepting such housing outcomes (e.g. are priced out and have to share with friends / family). In such circumstances overcrowding is indicative of insufficient supply to meet demand, although it has to be acknowledged that levels of overcrowding are increasing at a lower rate than the national level over the past ten years, albeit starting from a much lower base. This relatively small rate of change for the authority may be a

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function of relatively low private rent (which is below the County average), and / or comparatively low median house prices which enable some people to buy or rent properties of an appropriate size for their household.

Synthesis of Market Signals

3.35 Drawing together the individual market signals above allows us to build a picture of the current housing market in and around Tamworth; the extent to which demand for housing is not being met; and the outcomes that are occurring because of this.

The Tamworth Housing Market

3.36 It is clear from this analysis that the housing market in the Borough faces some challenges. The market signals point towards a housing market which, to some extent, is failing to match demand with supply. In Tamworth house prices are below the national average, but increasing.

3.37 Under-delivery since 2008 could also have contributed to market stress. However, it is of note that prior to 2009/10 housing delivery consistently exceeded planned supply targets.

3.38 Affordability ratios highlight affordability issues in Tamworth. The affordability ratio in Tamworth has consistently exceeded the national rate) but the Borough has relatively low median house prices, £47,000 less than median house prices nationally.

3.39 The peak in supply in 2006/07 in Tamworth and the subsequent decline broadly correlates with adverse market signals such as increasing median house prices. However affordability improved over this period which may suggest an increase in resident-based incomes over this period. However, affordability is fluctuating and has broadly flat-lined since 2009.

3.40 The rate of change of house prices has contributed to the level of affordability across the authorities although this has not been as pronounced as the change seen nationally. With house prices the 79 th cheapest in the country in Tamworth, resident-based incomes are likely to be a significant factor in the worsening affordability since the late 90s.

3.41 In order to draw meaningful conclusions regarding the extent to which such market signals indicate housing market stress in Tamworth, and a level of supply that is not meeting demand, the Practice Guidance suggests that comparison of both absolute levels and rates of change in such indicators should be made with similar areas and nationally. [§2a-020-20140306]

3.42 In this respect, Tamworth has been compared and ranked against other nearby Local Authorities and the overall indicators for England. These comparator centres have been chosen as they constitute areas which border the HMA and / or have some connection through migration and commuting as described elsewhere in this report:

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1 Lichfield; 2 Cannock Chase; 3 North Warwickshire; 4 Birmingham; 5 South Staffordshire; 6 East Staffordshire; 7 Walsall; and, 8 Stafford.

3.43 Table 4.4 compares Tamworth’s market signals against those of comparator areas.

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Table 3.6 Comparison of Market Signals (Source: NLP Analysis of VOA, CLG and ONS Statistics) Affordability Ratio (LQ House House Prices Price to LQ Earnings Rents Land Prices Overcrowding Homelessness Worsening Resi Bulk Incidence of housing Developmen % of Housing Change 2001- homeless Change market Rank Change % Change (1998- Median Change % (Q2 t Land (£ per Over- 2011 (% h'holds (04/05- outcomes Median (2013) (1998-2013) Ratio 2013 2013) Monthly Rent 2011-Q1 2013) ha) Occupied points) (2012/13) 12/13) 1 East England England Lichfield England England Stafford England Birmingham Birmingham Walsall Staffordshire

East South Lichfield Stafford Tamworth Lichfield Birmingham Lichfield England Walsall Birmingham 2 Staffordshire Derbyshire

South South North South Lichfield Stafford Birmingham Birmingham Walsall Birmingham England 3 Staffordshire Staffordshire Warwickshire Derbyshire

East South North South East Stafford Birmingham ~ Stafford Tamworth Tamworth 4 Staffordshire Staffordshire Warwickshire Staffordshire Staffordshire

North North South North Cannock England Tamworth England ~ England Lichfield Warwickshir 5 Warwickshire Derbyshire Warwickshire Chase e

South North South Birmingham Stafford Tamworth Walsall ~ Tamworth Lichfield Lichfield 6 Derbyshire Warwickshire Derbyshire

East North South South East North Lichfield ~ Stafford Walsall England 7 Staffordshire Warwickshire Derbyshire Derbyshire Staffordshire Warwickshire

South East Cannock North North South Tamworth Stafford Lichfield ~ Stafford 8 Staffordshire Staffordshire Chase Warwickshire Warwickshire Staffordshire

Cannock South Cannock South South East Birmingham Tamworth ~ Lichfield Tamworth 9 Chase Derbyshire Chase Derbyshire Staffordshire Staffordshire Improving housing Cannock Cannock South Cannock East Walsall Walsall Walsall Walsall ~ Stafford market 10 Chase Chase Staffordshire Chase Staffordshire outcomes Cannock South East South South Cannock Cannock Walsall Birmingham Tamworth ~ 11 Chase Staffordshire Staffordshire Derbyshire Staffordshire Chase Chase

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3.44 The comparative assessment of market signals highlights the scale of housing market stress within Tamworth.

3.45 Although absolute house prices are not particularly high in Tamworth, affordability is poor compared to most other comparator areas

3.46 Average rents are stable, and the Borough of Tamworth is mid-ranking.

3.47 Irrespective of the evidence of some improvement in terms of stable rents and a drop in affordability since 2008, this is still of concern. Tamworth is less affordable than neighbouring authorities. The affordability ratio may be exaggerated by low resident-based incomes rather than the absolute average house prices. Therefore, whether an uplift is appropriate in the HMA as a result of worsening affordability has to be carefully considered.

3.48 The extent to which the demographic ‘starting point’ for identifying OAN for housing needs to be boosted to address market signals is necessarily an area of judgement. The Practice Guidance is clear that the more significant the affordability constraints and the stronger other indicators of high demand, the larger the improvement in affordability needed and, therefore the larger the additional supply response should be. [§2a-020-20140306]

3.49 Hence whilst it is considered that upward adjustment is likely to be necessary, the scale of adjustment to housing supply over and above demographic-led projections at this time would need to be carefully considered in line with the Practice Guidance. In the HMA, due to the absolute median house prices and rental costs being quite high in contrast with signs of stable rents and declining affordability (since 2008), any uplift would need to be carefully balanced against the signs of housing market stress as well as any evidence of improvement / stabilisation.

3.50 Based on the housing market signals analysis, it is suggested that poor and worsening indicators suggest the need for a modest uplift in Tamworth.

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4.0 Tamworth’s Future Housing Need

Introduction

4.1 This Section revisits the modelling exercise for Tamworth Borough, taking forward the methodological approach outlined in detail in the May 2012 HEaDROOM report and subsequent November 2012/May 2013 Updates. This has been revised to take into account the requirements of The Framework and the Practice Guidance, the following changes differentiate the scenarios requested by TBC from the previous reports.

Demographic-led Projections: a Updated PopGroup Baseline: This scenario represents a projection of the demographic shift based on current factors and recent trends in Tamworth. The updated scenario uses the same broad approach as for the previous baseline (Scenario A in the 2011 report and Scenario 1 in the 2012 update), but incorporates the 2011-based CLG household forecast headship rates (to 2021) and ONS 2012-based SNPP. It has been assumed that post 2021, the 2008-based headship rates are applied (the ‘index’ approach). Other differences include a base date of 2012 rather than 2010/2011; an extension of the end of the Plan period(s) to 2031; and changes to the commuting, economic activity and unemployment rates to reflect the latest data from 2011 Census/NOMIS/CTB.

Sensitivity Tests: i Scenario Aa: Static Headship Rates – A scenario which incorporates the ONS / CLG inputs of Scenario A to provide a projection to 2021; after this time, the 2021 headship rates are held constant; ii Scenario Ab: Trend Headship Rates – As above, although post- 2021 the CLG 2011-based household projection trends are continued on a linear basis; iii Scenario Ac: Partial Catch-Up Headship Rates – As above; change post 2021 is targeted to partially achieve (by around half) the CLG 2008-based Household Projections end-rates by 2033; iv Scenario Ad: Catch Up Headship Rates - As above; change post 2021 is targeted to achieve the CLG 2008-based Household Projections end-rates by 2033; b Short Term Migration Trends – A scenario based upon migration trends observed for the Borough over the past 5 years; c Long Term Migration Trends – A scenario based upon migration trends observed for the Borough over the previous 10 years; d Zero Net Migration: whereby the annual international and domestic migration flows under the baseline scenario are equalised to result in a net

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migration of zero (i.e. an identical number of people move into the area as leave the area) – as before; e CLG Household Projections – incorporating the 2011-based (interim) CLG household projections to derive household growth (248 households per annum in Tamworth), plus the application of the latest vacancy rates for the Borough to convert households into dwellings;

Employment-led Projections: f Baseline Experian Job Growth – A ‘policy-off’ trend scenario based upon Experian’s local area based econometric model for summer 2014. This provides potential unconstrained employment growth (workforce jobs) in TBC of 4,100 between 2012 and 2031 12 ; g Constant Labour Supply: This explores the resulting housing needs of Tamworth if a hypothetical situation were to arise whereby the current local labour supply in the local authority area remains constant to 2031; h Past Trends Job Growth – A ‘policy-off’ trend scenario based upon past growth in jobs for the Borough over the period 2000 and 2012, with past job decline of -250 per annum projected forward for Tamworth Borough to 2031 13 ;

Reality Checks: i SHMA requirement: The Southern Staffordshire SHMA (2012) identified a critical need for 183 affordable homes annually for Tamworth. At a typical rate of around 20% for Tamworth (based on current policy aspirations), this would lead to a requirement of around 915 dpa for the Borough. j Past Delivery Rates: The rate of delivery of dwellings is a proxy for realisable demand for housing development within Tamworth and provides an indication of what might be delivered going forward. Based on long term paper records and AMR returns, TBC estimates that the total net new build annual average figure for the Borough over the long term between 2001/02 and 2013/14 has been 189 dpa - see Section 4.0 for further details. This was projected forward to 2031 on a pro-rata basis.

Scenarios – Assumptions and Approach

4.2 There are a number of underlying assumptions which NLP has adopted that form the basis for most modelled scenarios. These include: a Future change assumed in the Total Fertility Rates [TFR] and Standardised Mortality Rates [SMR] are based on the birth and death projections derived from the ONS 2012-based SNPP. This in turn is used to derive future projected TFRs and SMRs through PopGroup;

12 Experian’s local authority forecasting model is run separately for LAs in each region and takes the regional forecast as given. Accordingly, local forecasts are constrained to the regional forecasts of the parent region. Experian’s local model is based on the resolution of demand and supply for labour and takes into account commuting between local areas. 13 Data relates to NOMIS statistics, using a workplace-based measure of jobs and comprises employees (from the Annual Business Inquiry); self-employed jobs (from the Annual Population Survey), government-supported trainees (from DfES and DWP) and HM Forces (from MoD). As clarified by NOMIS, the number of jobs in an area is composed of jobs done by residents (of any age) and jobs done by workers (of any age) who commute into the area.

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b The 2011 and 2012 population figures (by age cohort) are constrained to align with the latest 2011-based and 2012-based mid-year population estimates for the Borough; c Inputs on headship rates (using the CLG 2011-based household forecast headship rates up to 2021, and the 2008-based rates after this time, sensitivity tests excepted); d In Tamworth (as in any area), it is expected that housing vacancies and second homes will result in the number of dwellings exceeding the number of households. In establishing future projections, it is likewise expected that the dwelling need will exceed the household forecast. Hence an empty homes rate of 1.9% for Tamworth is factored into the model for all the scenarios; e To calculate the unemployment rate for Tamworth, NLP took the January- December 2010 NOMIS (modelled) unemployment figure (9.4%) to equate to the 2010 rate; the equivalent 2011 figure (9.8%) to equate to the 2011 rate; the equivalent 2012 figure (8.1%) to equate to 2012 and the equivalent 2013 figure (5.3%) to equate to 2013. NLP kept the former figure constant for 2014 and 2015 to reflect initial stabilisation at the current high rate, and then gradually reduced the rate on a linear basis to the long term average (04-13) (6.37%) over a five-year time frame. This figure was then held constant to the end of the forecasting period on the grounds that this is a better reflection of the long-term trend than the current high rate; f 2011 Census Economic Activity Rates used for each age cohort to equate to the 2011 economic activity profile for Tamworth Borough. From 2012 onwards, an adjustment has been made to reflect the changes to the State Pension Age; the propensity for people to live longer and retire later; and the growth of part time opportunities amongst other challenges. The NLP approach mirrors that put forward by Kent County Council in their Technical Paper: “ Activity Rate projections to 2036, Research and Evaluation, Business Strategy and Support ” (October 2011). The increase in rates, which is most pronounced for women over the age of 60 and males between the ages of 65-69, are gradually increased from 2012 onwards up to 2020, whereby they are held constant across the remainder of the forecasting period; g It has been assumed that the commuting rate remains static with no inferred increase or decrease in commuting levels. According to the 2011 Census, there were 41,188 economically active Tamworth residents between the ages of 16 and 74, of whom 38,281 were in employment, and there were 27,077 jobs. This equates to a commuting rate of 1.41 for Tamworth (i.e. more people commute out of the Borough than commute in on a daily basis). h There will also be an additional driver underpinning growth in household formation due to the strong trend towards smaller average household sizes nationally.

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4.3 Where scenarios have been demographically modelled, a full schedule of the assumptions and inputs underpinning each one is contained within Appendix 1, and the outputs from the modelling are contained within Appendices 2 and 3.

Modelling Results

Demographic-led Scenarios

4.4 The demographic scenarios use components of population change (births, deaths and migration) to project how the future population, their household composition, and consequently their need for housing, will shift in the future. It also projects the proportion of the population who will be economically active and will support employment growth. The headline results for each scenario for the period 2012 to 2031 are outlined below.

Scenario A – 2012 SNPP Baseline

4.5 The baseline scenario is predicated upon the rates of projected migration, births and deaths in TBC identified within the ONS 2012-based SNPP and the 2011- based (interim) household projections.

4.6 Under this scenario the population of Tamworth is projected to increase by 5,365 residents over the period 2012 to 2031. This consists of a decline in residents from net migration (-360), countered by a substantial increase through natural change (5,724). Domestic rather than international migration drives the decline in migration, with the former contributing a net decrease of -1,264 residents to 2031, and the latter contributing an increase 904 (net). This is a much lower level of population growth than that underpinning the 2011 and 2010-based SNPPs, although the 2008-based SNPP (upon which the equivalent CLG long term household projections are based) has a very similar level of growth (albeit starting from a lower base in 2012).

4.7 For Tamworth, the scenario would result in an increase of 4,403 households to 2031, or 4,488 dwellings (236 dpa). The change to the total economically active residents and jobs based in the Borough would be negative under this scenario (- 1,025 and -174 between 2012 and 2031 respectively). The 236 dpa is lower than the equivalent PopGroup Baseline model run figures of 264 dpa in the 2012 SHMA; 282 dpa in the November 2012 Update; and 253 dpa based on the 2011- based CLG (interim) household projections.

Scenario A: Tamworth 2012-2031: 236 dpa

Scenarios Aa – Ad – Sensitivity: Headship Rate Adjustments

4.8 There are specific issues with regards to the headship rates used to underpin the latest 2011-based interim household projections, not the least of which is the fact that headship rates are only provided over the period 2011-21. To demonstrate the extent to which NLP’s ‘index’ approach that underpins Scenario A represents

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a reasonable compromise, a variety of sensitivity tests were modelled using higher / lower household representation post 2021 as illustrated in Table 4.1 and the Figures in Section 2.0.

4.9 The data indicates that the indexed household representation rates scenarios for the Borough sit roughly midway between the static and trend headship rates at the lower end of the range, and the catch up headship rates scenario at the top end. The Partial Catch Up scenario is below the baseline.

Table 4.1 Modelling Scenarios Varying Household Representation Rate assumptions post 2021

Dwelling Change Tamworth 2012-2031 dpa PopGroup Baseline (Index) 4,488 236 Static Headship Rates 4,144 218 Trend Headship Rates 3,383 178 Partial Catch Up Headship Rates 4,132 217 Catch Up Headship Rates 4,867 256 Source: NLP PopGroup Modelling

Index = Annual change for 2021 to 2031 from CLG 2008-based Household Projections

Static = Constant 2021 rate applied for each year post-2021

Trend = CLG 2011-based household projection trend on a linear basis post 2021

Partial Catch Up = Change post 2021 is targeted to end at a point halfway between the CLG 2011-based end rates trend and the CLG 2008-based Household Projections Catch Up end rates by 2033 (High Rate)

Catch Up = Change post 2021 is targeted to achieve CLG 2008-based Household Projections end rates by 2033 (High Rate)

4.10 In terms of the merits of the five approaches to headship rate assumptions post 2021, recent Inspector’s reports at Local Plan EiPs have tended to lend weight to the soundness of the ‘indexed’ approach.

4.11 As noted by the Inspector at the South Worcestershire Development Plan (2013), the baseline index approach uses headship rates drawn from the 2011-based household projections for the period 2011-2021, then for the rest of the Plan period uses an index of HRR drawn from the 2008-based household projections: “This effectively assumes that current trends in household formation will persist until 2021, after which there will be a return to the household growth rates experienced in the years before the financial downturn. Taking into account all the evidence I heard on this point, this is a reasonable assumption. On the basis of current economic trends, I consider it less likely that, after 2021, household growth rates will accelerate beyond the rates experienced before 2008, as envisaged in NLP’s alternative “partial catch-up” scenarios. [§31-32] “…in my view the demographic stage of that analysis should be carried out using the latest available official population projections, combined with NLP’s “index” approach to translate those projections into future household numbers. [§44] 14

14 Stage 1 of the Examination of the South Worcestershire Development Plan: Inspector’s Interim Conclusions on the Stage 1 Matters (October 2013).

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4.12 As for the remaining two scenarios, the static headship rates sensitivity test, which keeps the 2021 rates constant to the end of the plan period, is not robust as it is highly unlikely that the long term trend towards smaller household sizes across the country will suddenly halt. Similarly, the ‘trend’ headship rate sensitivity test, which applies the 2011-based rates on a linear basis post 2021, is also questionable, as it risks perpetuating the recent negative outcomes associated with constraints on housing availability and affordability.

4.13 On this basis, NLP considers that in the context of Tamworth, the index approach to household formation remains the most defensible ‘starting point’ for defining housing OAN.

Scenario B – Short Term Migration Trend

4.14 This scenario is based upon a continuation into the future of the average past migration trends observed in the Borough over the short term (past 5 years) and applies these to the ONS 2012-based (interim) SNPP. This draws upon ONS estimates of domestic and international migration over the previous 5 years for both districts. It differs from the previous approach in that an extra years’ worth of data is available on past migration, whilst the 2012-based SNPP has been used instead of the 2011-based SNPP.

4.15 Again, due to the modest levels of net in-migration to the Borough over the past five years, population growth is forecast to be lower than the baseline scenario, which has a concurrent suppression of household formation and dwelling needs.

Scenario B: Tamworth 2012-2031: 186 dpa

Scenario C – Long Term Migration Trend

4.16 As with Scenario B, the main changes to the approach used in the previous May 2013 Update is the availability of an extra years’ worth of data and the application of information underpinning the 2012-based SNPP. The result of this is that, again, the dwelling need for Tamworth is lower than the baseline.

Scenario C: Tamworth 2012-2031: 177 dpa

Scenario D – Zero Net Migration

4.17 The Zero Net Migration Scenario represents the population impacts of equalising migration (i.e. ensuring that the number of international and domestic migrants coming into each authority area equals the number moving out). Thus the profile of the population changes over time due to the different demographic characteristics of in-migrants and out-migrants.

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4.18 As net migration is virtually neutral in Tamworth at present, this scenario results in a level of growth that is similar to the 2012-based SNPP baseline, i.e. population growth of 5,398; a resultant increase in households of 4,327; and an increase in dwellings of 4,411 (232 dpa).

4.19 This Scenario is unrealistic as it is impossible to entirely restrict migration to/from a local authority area - thus the scenario presents a hypothetical 'what if' scenario that demonstrates the importance of migration to the future economic growth prospects for the local authority area.

Scenario D: Tamworth 2012-2031: 232 dpa

Scenario E – 2011 CLG (Interim) Household Projections

4.20 This scenario takes the latest national population and household projections at face value and projects the average annual increase forward beyond 2021 to the end of the plan period. This scenario does not incorporate the projections into the PopGroup model.

4.21 For Tamworth, the latest household projections suggest an increase in households by 2,483 to 34,129 over the period 2011-21 (248 hpa) – similar to the 253 hpa in the 2008 household projections for the equivalent time period. Again, taking into consideration the vacant / second home rate (1.90%), this would result in a need of 253 dpa.

Scenario E: Tamworth 2011-2021: 253 dpa

Employment-Led Scenarios

4.22 A series of employment led scenarios have also been identified to assess how much additional housing may be needed, if any, to take account of economic growth, over and above demographic needs.

4.23 There is a complex set of issues involved in matching labour markets and housing markets (with different occupational groups having a greater or lesser propensity to travel to work). However, there are some simple calculations that can explore the basic alignment of employment, demographic and housing change, notably the amount of housing needed to sustain a given labour force assuming certain characteristics of commuting and employment levels.

4.24 Ensuring a sufficient supply of homes within easy access of employment opportunities represents an important facet of an efficiently functioning economy and can help to minimise housing market pressures and unsustainable levels of commuting (and therefore congestion and carbon emissions). If the objective of

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employment growth is to be realised, then it will generally need to be supported by an adequate supply of suitable housing.

Scenario F – Experian Baseline Job Growth

4.25 This comprises a ‘policy-off’ trend based-scenario using Experian’s local area based job forecasting model. The data provided covers the period from 2012 to 2031.

4.26 This represents an unconstrained, ‘policy off’, estimate of how Tamworth’s economy could perform in the future. It therefore presents an objective forecast of how the local authority area could perform based on the nature of its economy and current expectations of national and regional economic performance.

4.27 In the wake of job losses / gains between 2011 and 2012 (which have already happened), the job growth scenario has incorporated the 2011 and 2012 Mid- Year Population Estimates and used annual projected job growth figures thereafter.

4.28 For Tamworth, the projected job growth is 4,100 for the period 2012 and 2031. An increase in the number of economically active residents by 5,429 would be required to sustain this level of net additional jobs in Tamworth, equating to 16,594 additional residents 2012-2031. This would require an increase of 8,669 households and 8,837 dwellings (465 dpa).

Scenario F: Tamworth 2012-2031: 465 dpa

Scenario G – Job Stabilisation

4.29 This employment-led scenario examined the number of dwellings necessary to sustain a broadly neutral level of job growth from 2012 to 2031. For Tamworth the population would increase by 5,286 residents by 2031; the number of households by 4,485; and the number of dwellings by 4,572 (241 dpa).

Scenario G: Tamworth 2012-2031: 241 dpa

Scenario H - Past Trends Job Growth

4.30 This ‘policy-off’ trend-based scenario is based upon past growth in jobs for the three authorities over the period 2000 and 2012. Job decline of -250 per annum was projected forward for Tamworth Borough to 2031. For Tamworth Borough, there would need to be a population decrease of 7,317 and a decrease of households by 321. This would equate to a dwelling need of -328 (-17 dpa).

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Scenario H:

Tamworth 2012-2031: -17 dpa

Policy / Supply-Led Scenarios

4.31 The policy / supply led scenario tests the implications of delivering a certain level of development (i.e. a set number of dwellings) based on the given parameters of various scenarios.

4.32 We recognise that the Objective Assessment of Need cannot be founded on supply led scenarios as per the Practice Guidance, but they nevertheless remain useful comparators with the previous demographic and employment-led approaches and also the modelling results from the previous HEaDROOM report and the recent Updates.

Scenario I – SHMA Requirement

4.33 As noted above, the Southern Staffordshire SHMA (2012) identified a critical need for 183 dpa (net) affordable housing dwellings per year over the next five years in Tamworth. At a typical rate of around 20% for Tamworth (based on current policy aspirations), this would lead to a need for around 915 dpa.

Scenario I: Tamworth 2012-2031: 915 dpa

Scenario J – Past Delivery Rates

4.34 Figure 4.1 presents past net housing completions stretching back to 2001/02 for Tamworth Borough. This includes three extra years of data now available since this data was originally published as part of the SHMA Update in 2012. As can be seen from the Figure, 2,454 dwellings were delivered in Tamworth Borough between 2001/02 and 2013/14 at a rate of 189 dpa, although since 2007/08 the rate has fallen to 141 dpa. Just 48 dwellings were completed in the past year (2013/14).

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Figure 4.1 Tamworth Borough Long Term Housing Data – Net Housing Completions

450

400

350

300

250

200

150 Net Annual Housing DeliveryNetAnnual(units) Housing

100

50

0 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Tamworth 203 171 115 316 234 425 198 211 182 139 69 143 48

Source: Based on data provided by TBC Officers 2014

Scenario J: Tamworth 2012-2031: 189 dpa

Summary

4.35 The Scenarios indicate a wide range of housing needs for the period 2012 to 2031, based upon different indicators of what the need for housing within Tamworth could be. These are summarised in Table 4.2.

4.36 The projections range from a negative figure of -17 based on the Past Trends Scenario, to a high of 915 dpa based on the 2012 SHMA findings. Again, stripping these outliers out would result in a much narrower range, of between 177 dpa (Long term Migration Scenario) and 465 dpa Experian Job Growth Scenario). The 2012-based SNPP Scenario is towards the lower end of that clustering, at 236 dpa. This is slightly below the 253 dpa suggested by the 2011- based CLG household projections, which might have been expected given that the 2011-based SNPP (upon which the CLG projections are based), projects much stronger growth than the latest 2012-based SNPP. The 236 dpa is above the 170 dpa in the emerging Local Plan, although broadly aligned with the 250 dpa figure that TBC recognises to be its OAN in the draft Local Plan.

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Table 4.2 Summary of Updated Tamworth Scenarios 2012-2031

2031 2031 Change Change Dwelling Dwelling Population Population Job Growth Job Growth Change p.a. p.a. Change Net Migration Migration Net Natural Change Natural Dwellings 2012- Dwellings A. Baseline 2012-based SNPP 4,488 236 Aa. Baseline – Static 4,144 218 Ab. Baseline – Trend 5,724 -360 5,365 3,383 178 -174 Ac. Baseline – Partial Catch Up 4,132 217 Ad. Baseline – Catch Up 4,867 256 B. Short Term Average Migration Rates 5,289 -2,622 2,667 3,536 186 -1,014 C. Long Term Average Migration Rates 5,227 -3,002 2,225 3,360 177 -1,195 D. Zero Net Migration 5,398 0 5,398 4,411 232 165 E. CLG 2011 Household Projections - 4,803 253 - F. Experian Job Growth 6,988 9,566 16,554 8,837 465 4,100 G. Job Stabilisation 5,286 192 5,478 4,572 241 0 H. Past Trends Job Growth 3,524 -10,841 -7,317 -328 -17 -4,750 I SHMA - 17,385 915 - J. Average Past Delivery - 3,591 189 -

Source: CLG Household Projections / NLP Analysis of PopGroup Outputs / TBC

4.37 A number of key themes are evident for all of these scenarios and are likely to be central to future housing provision in Tamworth Borough. Accordingly, it will be necessary for the LPA to pay due consideration to the following implications of these matters if the objective of ensuring and enhancing the social, economic and environmental well-being of the wider area is to be realised: 1 The latest 2012-based SNPP are lower than the previous 2010-based SNPP and 2011-based SNPP for Tamworth Borough. This has had the effect of generally suppressing the resultant dwelling needs for the Borough compared to previous model runs; 2 An Ageing Population, with the number of residents aged 65+ across Tamworth Borough increasing by 66% (or 7,900 residents), over the period 2012-2031 (based on the 2012-based SNPP Baseline Scenario). This is in stark contrast to the number of residents in the key working age cohorts of between 16 and 64 – this is projected to decline by 4% over the same time period, equal to a loss of over 2,170 residents; 3 Natural change is a positive demographic driver for Tamworth Borough, with births exceeding deaths over the Plan period; 4 The reality that, regardless of the housing option that is ultimately selected by the LPA, out-migration is likely to continue in the future; and, 5 A clear migration pattern, whereby (net) international and domestic migration is negative over the plan period in Tamworth.

4.38 Furthermore, whilst it is useful to compare each of the scenarios in graphical and tabular form, careful regard should be given to the implications of each in terms of: 1 Their economic implications; 2 Their impact upon the demographic structure of the wider area;

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3 The reliance upon migration to achieve the necessary level of population change and the implications associated with this for services and infrastructure provision; 4 Their potential for delivery, judged against past trend completions, land availability and challenging viability factors; 5 Their realism over the longer term, to 2031.

Bringing the Evidence Together

4.39 The outputs from the modelling show a range of outcomes, but also highlight a number of common trends, particularly the ageing population. This will have implications for planning for an elderly population, including elderly housing and constraints on the labour supply, with lower economic activity associated with an older demographic profile.

4.40 It is important to note that it is implied within each of the higher (employment-led) scenarios where net in-migration is a core growth component, that the Borough will be meeting needs originating from outside of its administrative boundaries, and in certain instances, outside the wider HMA. Such migration flows are a key component of the existing, and varied, wider housing markets of which south-east Staffordshire is a part. Key migratory relationships with areas where the HMA receives net in-migration, such as Walsall and most notably Birmingham, are integrated into the assessment of future needs, and therefore it is implicit that Tamworth Borough will need to plan for such needs as a component of the housing needs associated with each scenario, rather than adding needs from those areas on top (unless those areas, through the duty to co-operate, will have additional unmet needs that might be met within the HMA and that are not already reflected in the relevant scenarios).

4.41 Simply put, the original SHMA and subsequent Updates assessing housing need take full account of the migratory relationship of the HMA with the rest of the wider sub-region. This is consistent with The Framework, which states that objective assessments of housing need should take account of migration.

4.42 These projections form a core component of evidence for informing what an objective assessment of overall housing need and demand in Tamworth will be. Although they will have to be considered alongside other indications, including an assessment of affordable housing need, they provide 'book-end' scenarios of bottom-up, locally derived, estimates of future housing need based on structural demographic and economic drivers in the Borough.

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5.0 Implications

Introduction

5.1 In the light of the publication of the 2012-based ONS SNPP (as well as developments in the approach to assessing housing OAN based on the Practice Guidance and recent Inspectors’ decisions at both EiP and appeal), this section of the report assesses the extent to which the previous forecasts remain valid and whether as a consequence of this, the justification behind the range of dwelling needs given in the previous SHMA and subsequent Updates remains robust.

5.2 NLP has reservations regarding the use of the 2011-based SNPP data, which underpinned the May 2013 Update. These are only interim statistics and incorporate 2010-based data on SMR/TFR rates and migration; furthermore, the data only goes up to 2021 rather than 2031. As a consequence, the 2012-based SNPP might be expected to provide a more robust basis for underpinning future housing need.

5.3 To recap, the justification behind the evolution of the Housing OAN for Tamworth since 2012, summarised in Table 5.1, is as follows: a The original 2012 HEaDROOM report reviewed a wide range of scenarios and excluded the more extreme, or unsustainable, forecasts such as the employment-led or reduced migration projections. A number of scenarios were left which broadly clustered around a much narrower range of housing needs; b Having established the scenario-based housing need figures, a refined range was derived following the consideration of the combined outputs from the various model runs. A housing ONA range was suggested that comprised 240-265 dpa for Tamworth . This was further justified on the grounds that it would go a significant way towards meeting the housing need identified in the SHMA and that it would prevent a decline in the number of jobs in the HMA moving forward; c The November 2012 Update modelled the implications of new demographic data, most notably the 2010-based SNPP. The report concluded that given the stark rise in population forecast for Tamworth Borough in the latest round of population projections, a slightly higher range of housing need of between 280-300 dpa would be appropriate; d The May 2013 Update was produced at the request of the Inspector into the Lichfield Local Plan EiP to analyse the implications of the latest 2011-based (interim) CLG household projections. The projections were slightly lower for Tamworth Borough than previously. On this basis, it was considered that the original range of between 240-265 dpa for Tamworth remained within an acceptable margin of tolerance despite changes to the growth forecasts; e Tamworth are seeking to take forward a housing requirement figure of 170 dpa in their emerging Local Plan, whilst recognising that their OAN is 250 dpa , with the difference to be met in adjoining districts where possible.

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Table 5.1 Annual Housing Need - Updated Comparison

Housing OAN Evolution Requirement 2011 -based Plan Period Original 2012 November May 2013 Scenario A Adopted / CLG H’hold SHMA Range 2012 Update Update 2012-based Emerging Local Projections SNPP Plan Provision (2011-21) Tamworth (2006- 240-265 dpa 280-300 dpa 240-265 dpa 253 dpa 236 dpa 250 dpa 1 2031) Source: NLP analysis, CCDC/LDC/TBC 1Includes 2,000 dwellings to meet Tamworth’s needs located in Lichfield, North Warwickshire and beyond – the Plan itself makes provision for 170 dpa in their own authority area.

5.4 The Table indicates that set against this OAN evolution for the Borough, the latest Baseline Scenario (incorporating the 2012-based SNPP) would suggest a slightly lower housing need figure.

Scenario Modelling Summary

5.5 Figure 5.1 demonstrates how the updated projections compare to the May 2013 Update recommended range for Tamworth Borough. As can be seen from Figure 5.1 and Table 5.1, the latest demographic projections are generally lower than before, which is likely to be due to much shallower growth forecasts in the 2012- based SNPP than the 2010/2011-based SNPPs which underpinned the previous analyses. As such, Scenario A indicates a need for 236 dpa, which falls below the 259 dpa and 264 dpa comparable scenarios modelled previously for Tamworth. The Catch Up Headship rate sensitivity test would increase this figure to a comparable level of 256 dpa however, and would accord with the 253 dpa indicated by the CLG’s 2011-based (interim) household projections.

5.6 These demographic scenarios would broadly result in a neutral level of job growth over the plan period. For the Experian rate of job growth to be achieved (i.e. an increase in jobs equal to 4,100 by 2031) would require a step change in dwelling provision equal to 465 dpa. The effects of the recession and subsequent economic downturn resulted in a high level of job losses (-4,750) which, projected forward, would result in a negative dwelling target which would clearly not be an appropriate basis upon which to plan.

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Figure 5.1 Summary of Scenarios for Tamworth Borough

Previous Range: 240-265 dpa

Source: NLP Analysis

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Defining the OAN Range

5.7 In assessing whether any further adjustment should be made to the evolving OAN ranges from the previous HEaDROOM analyses, full reference was made to the Practice Guidance, which clarifies the position on how the Framework should be interpreted and applied. This document was not available at the time of the previous reports, and hence this will necessarily alter how we now define the OAN.

5.8 The Practice Guidance clarifies the position on how the Framework should be interpreted and applied. It confirms that an assessment of need must fulfil the following criteria: 1 Based on facts and unbiased evidence. Plan makers should not apply constraints to the overall assessment of need; 2 Up-to-date household projections published by CLG should provide the starting point estimate of overall housing need; and that 3 The housing need number suggested by household projections (the starting point) should be adjusted to reflect local demographic factors, employment trends as well as appropriate market signals including market indicators of the balance between the demand for and supply of dwellings.

5.9 It is clear that the approach taken to setting housing and employment requirements must be grounded in the background evidence of need and demand within an area, and this evidence must be sound and robust to inform the strategy making process.

5.10 In practice, applying The Framework requires the following key steps in order to arrive at a robustly evidenced housing target: The starting point for Local Plans is to meet the full objectively assessed development needs of an area [§6, §47 & §156] . An objective assessment of housing need must be a level of housing delivery which meets the needs associated with population and household growth, addresses the need for all types of housing including affordable and caters for housing demand [§159]. Furthermore, a planned level of housing to meet objectively assessed needs must respond positively to wider opportunities for growth and should take account of market signals, including affordability [§17]. In choosing a housing requirement which would not meet objectively assessed development needs, it must be evidenced that the adverse impacts of meeting needs would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits, when assessed against the policies within the Framework [§14]. Where an authority is unable to meet its objectively assessed development needs or it is not the most appropriate strategy to do so, it must be demonstrated under the statutory duty-to-cooperate that the unmet need is to be met in another local authority area in order to fully meet development requirements across housing

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market areas [§179 & §182 bullet point 1] .

5.11 It is against these requirements of the Framework which the Council’s housing requirement will be identified. This has recently been brought into sharp focus following the high court judgement ‘(1) Gallagher Homes Limited and (2) Lioncourt Homes Limited v Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council [2014] EWHC 1283’ which reiterates the imperative need to firstly identify full objectively assessed need for housing and then define a strategy which seeks to meet it, consistent with the Framework.

Appropriateness of Scenarios

Demographic scenarios (Scenarios A – C / E)

5.12 The starting point for assessing an appropriate OAN is the latest Household Projections (Scenario E, equal to 253 dpa in Tamworth), although this is only one of many competing considerations. The housing need figures for TBC should not solely rely on demographic data but (in accordance with The Framework and the Practice Guidance) should also be balanced against the economic prospects for the area. The baseline (demographic-led) scenario (A) factors in an increase in household formation over time above and beyond the level forecast in the latest CLG (interim) 2011-based household projections for the Borough. Due to the significantly lower 2012-based SNPP, this Index baseline scenario results in a need for 236 dpa. Despite the expected ageing population, the labour force will decline across Tamworth by 2031.

5.13 The partial catch up headship rate sensitivity test (Scenario Ac) results in lower dwelling needs for Tamworth Borough (217 dpa) than the ‘indexed’ dwelling target. This is because there is little to choose between the growth rates underpinning both the CLG’s 2011-based (interim) headship rates and the 2008- based equivalents, and the partial catch up only seeks to partially achieve (by around half) the earlier projections. In this instance therefore, it would be inappropriate to take forward the partial catch up sensitivity test over the baseline ‘index’ approach.

5.14 The catch up headship rate sensitivity test (Scenario Ad) would significantly increase the baseline dwelling need for Tamworth to 256 dpa.

5.15 As for the remaining two ‘headship’ scenarios, the static headship rates sensitivity test (which keeps the 2021 rates constant to the end of the plan period) is not robust as it is highly unlikely that the long term trend towards smaller household sizes across the country will suddenly halt. Similarly, the ‘trend’ headship rate sensitivity test, which applies the 2011-based rates on a linear basis post 2021, is also questionable, as it risks perpetuating the recent negative outcomes associated with constraints on housing availability and affordability.

5.16 As for the short and long term migration trend scenarios (B and C), both are projecting significantly lower levels of net in-migration going forward for the Borough, which in turn result in lower dwelling needs. The extent to which these scenarios are an appropriate basis upon which to define OAN for the authority is

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therefore questionable, given that for much of the past 7 years the economy was in a deep economic downturn, which distorted the flow of migrants both internationally and domestically. Whilst these may be appropriate scenarios to inform the OAN elsewhere in the country, because they generally forecast substantially lower levels of net-migration than the data underpinning the more robust 2012-based SNPP, they are ultimately excluded here.

Excluding net in-migration (Scenario D)

5.17 The zero-migration scenario is useful to demonstrate the future need that is generated by the existing resident population across the Borough. However, it does not offer realistic scenarios of what will happen in Tamworth in the years to come.

5.18 For example, it is not possible to prevent the movement of people into or out of the Borough and, following on from an understanding of what has happened in the past, it is evident that migration will continue to play an important part in demographic change in the future. Migration, particularly of the working age population, can be of considerable benefit for the social and economic well-being of an area. Without this, the Borough’s economy would undoubtedly suffer.

5.19 It ensures a good mix of people of all age groups, including those of working age that are able to work within the local area. As such, it can contribute towards a more balanced and economically functional society. It is important to acknowledge these benefits and to respond to them by making adequate housing provision for the future needs of migrants in Tamworth.

5.20 In practice this is an unrealistic scenario and beyond the Council’s ability to control. Hence whilst it remains a useful indicator of potential indigenous demand, it is not considered to be either realistic or robust to pursue this forecast further.

Demographic Conclusions

5.21 In summary, based on the evidence brought together through the modelled scenarios and excluding the unrealistic migration-led trends, a demographic-led estimate of housing need and demand for Tamworth lies within the range of between 178 dpa and 256 dpa. NLP ordinarily places most weight on the Index baseline scenario, which, at 236 dpa sits towards the top end of this range.

5.22 However, the market signals analysis undertaken in Section 3.0 of this report potentially indicates some form of upwards adjustment to levels of housing provision above the purely demographic needs of Tamworth.

5.23 For Tamworth, whilst the picture is not clear cut across the market indicators, (with, for example, the Borough having some of the lowest house prices and rate of change of all the comparator areas), the Practice Guidance is clear that a worsening trend in any of the housing market indicators will require upward adjustment to planned housing numbers compared to ones based solely on household projections. In particular, the Borough has relatively high rates of

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homelessness, which have increased significantly since 2004/05. Most strikingly, despite having relatively low house prices, the Borough has a higher Affordability Ratio (6.77) than nationally (6.45) and has the highest rate of any of the comparator areas, Lichfield excepted. The ratio has also started to increase again from its protracted fall due to the recession and subsequent economic downturn.

5.24 As such, it is suggested that an upwards adjustment to the demographic range of scenarios is considered appropriate, with the Catch Up Scenario likely to represent a suitable level given the scale of correction needed. Such an approach would equate to a figure of around 256 dpa.

Employment-led Projections (Scenarios F-H)

5.25 The Practice Guidance requires plan makers to assess likely employment growth, based on past trends and/or employment forecasts. Where the labour force supply is found to be less than the projected job growth, the Guidance states that this could result in unsustainable commuting patterns which could reduce the resilience of local businesses. In such circumstances, plan-makers should consider how the location of new housing or infrastructure development could help address these problems.

5.26 Recognising the importance of achieving a strategy that is internally consistent, it is evident that objectively assessed housing needs should seek to consider both demographic and economic implications. It should be noted that whilst there is not a direct causal relationship between job growth and housing needs, the two are nevertheless fundamentally related.

5.27 Helping to stem the decline of working age residents in the Borough would achieve a more balanced population structure and reduce potential future economic difficulties and the demands of services associated with an ageing population and a more limited supply of labour.

5.28 The housing OAN figure for the Borough should not solely rely on demographic data but (in accordance with The Framework and the Practice Guidance) should also have regard to future employment. The extent of future employment growth aspired towards is a choice for the LPA to make in translating the housing OAN into a housing need.

5.29 To inform that analysis, a number of scenarios were modelled to demonstrate the impact of a range of likely growth scenarios including stabilising job growth; Experian baseline projections; and past trends job growth approach. These scenarios also indicate the scale of change that would be required if demographic trends (i.e. an ageing population/declining workforce) were to be reversed. There is a clear divergence between the demographic-based and more aspirational employment-led scenarios for the Borough.

5.30 More specifically, all of the demographic projections would result in the local labour supply across Tamworth Borough either declining or staying virtually constant, despite a significantly growing population (primarily in the over 65s age

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category). Hence there is little to choose between the Job Stabilisation Scenario G and the PopGroup Baseline Scenario A.

5.31 However, the Experian Job Growth projection would result in a level of job growth that would be far in excess of the current labour supply using the 2012-based SNPP, with a concurrent increase in dwellings required.

5.32 Crucially, the OAN must be reasonable. As illustrated in Figure 5.2, the level of population growth required to sustain the growth in jobs projected by Experian would be around three-times greater than the level projected in the 2012-based SNPP for Tamworth. Furthermore, as this population growth would be primarily achieved by inward migration as opposed to natural change, it would require a step change in inward migration.

5.33 For Tamworth, which currently has a slightly negative contribution from migration to 2031 (consistent with trends over both the long and short term), this would require a dramatic reversal in past trends and would need over 9,500 net additional in-migrants to achieve the required population level to accommodate Experian’s job growth (all other assumptions remaining constant). This is at odds with what may be expected to occur in the Borough.

5.34 It is clear from the Figure below that the population growth forecast under the Past Trends Scenario would be far from desirable for Tamworth.

Figure 5.2 Population Implications for TBC of the 2012-based SNPP vs. Job Growth

100,000

95,000

90,000

85,000

80,000

Resident Resident Population 75,000

70,000

65,000

60,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Tamworth Baseline Tamworth Experian Tamworth Past Trends Source: NLP Analysis of PopGroup Outputs

5.35 On this basis, it is considered that in this instance, the Experian Job Growth Scenario F, and the Past Trends Job Growth Scenario H, could be considered

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outliers. A similar conclusion was reached by the Inspector at the Lichfield District Local Plan EiP 15 .

5.36 Furthermore, at the Cannock Chase Local Plan examination, the Council argued that increasing the relatively low job density of the District would not necessarily require a commensurate uplift in the housing figure to match the higher employment-led projections. This was generally accepted by the Inspector, who commented as follows: “Some argue that the housing target should be increased to avoid a reduction in economic activity, jobs and labour force, but this could cause further in-migration and upset the balance between homes and jobs, particularly given the other proposals to achieve job growth without affecting housing requirements, including new employment sites and improving the skills of the existing population…Overall I conclude that the CCLP provides a reasonable and realistic balance between homes and jobs” [Cannock Chase Local Plan (Part 12) DPD – Inspector’s Report, February 2014, §40]

5.37 The only alternatives to the significant reversal of migratory trends necessary to underpin job growth at the scale of the Experian job forecasts would be through a change in commuting patterns, by clawing back local residents currently commuting out to adjoining boroughs; increasing economic activity rates / reducing unemployment; or through planning for a mix of housing and employment which encouraged the retention of residents of an economically active age, or which encouraged younger, economically active people to move into Tamworth Borough.

5.38 Weight should also be attached to the Job Stabilisation Scenario G, which would still require a slight shift in demographic patterns to be achieved given the ageing population of the Borough.

Overall Compliance

5.39 The Framework requires LPAs to use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the HMA, as far as is consistent with the policies set out elsewhere in that document [§47]. However, recent High Court Judgements 16 have clarified that the OAN is not necessarily the same as the ‘Housing Requirement’ figure ultimately taken forward in a Local Plan. The OAN sets aside policy considerations and is closely linked to the relevant household projections (although it is not necessarily the same). The Housing Requirement figure meanwhile, reflects not only the assessed need for housing, but also any policy considerations that might require that figure to be manipulated in the light of capacity constraints.

15 Lichfield District Council Local Plan: Strategy Examination, Inspector’s Letter dated 3 rd September 2013 16 Between Gallagher Homes Limited / Lioncourt Homes Limited and Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council 30/04/2014 Case No. CO/17668/2013

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5.40 This Housing Needs Update provides a forward-looking objective assessment of future housing needs using a base date of 2012 up to 2031, concentrating on the OAN – the derivation of a ‘Housing Requirement’ is a matter for the LPA.

5.41 The definition of OAN is 'not an exact science' and an element of judgement is necessary, based upon reasonable assumptions. The scenarios also need to be balanced alongside what is realistic and is likely to happen in the future, and align with other elements of TBC’s evidence base.

5.42 Nevertheless, in defining the OAN, it is considered that the following guiding principles should be applied: 1 Household projections published by CLG provide the ‘starting point’ estimate of overall housing need. However, such a scenario in isolation makes no allowance for TBC’s economic growth aspirations or national policy requirements for LPAs to 'boost significantly' the supply of housing and to ‘do everything they can’ to support economic growth; 2 A worsening of some of the market signals, past under-delivery of dwellings and high affordability ratios, provides an indication of a slight tightening of demand in Tamworth Borough. It suggests that there needs to be some improvement in affordability to stabilise the increasing house prices and affordability ratios. This would justify an uplift to the figures over and above the level suggested by the baseline index demographic projection; 3 At the top end of the range, there is a need to provide an appropriate housing target that demonstrates an ambition to plan for growth and to meet identified needs, but critically not to an extent which is unrealistic. This would exclude the significantly higher/lower scenarios modelled, specifically the Experian and Past Trends Job Growth projections; 4 The OAN should go a significant way towards meeting the affordable housing needs of the local population, identified as being as high as 183 dpa identified in the 2012 SHMA for Tamworth.

5.43 This approach is summarised in Figure 5.3 and reflected in the way housing needs have been considered for Tamworth Borough in this report.

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Figure 5.3 NPPF and PPG Approach to Objectively Assessing Housing Needs

Source: NLP

5.44 Due to the various factors and assumptions which feed into the assessment of future needs, there is not a single figure which can be definitively identified as the Borough’s objectively assessed housing needs. This is noted in the former CLG SHMA Guidance which identifies that estimates of need may be expressed either as a single number or as a range.

5.45 For Tamworth Borough, it is considered that an objective assessment of housing need and demand would fall within the range of 240 to 265 dpa, equivalent to between 4,560 and 5,035 net additional dwellings over the 19- year period 2012 to 2031

5.46 This range has been derived on the basis of taking the latest household and population projections 17 as the starting point for identifying OAN, modelling the latest 2012-based SNPP to obtain the most robust demographic baseline for the Borough before accelerating household formation rates to anticipate a return to growth over the longer term. We have then uplifted the OAN further to allow for adverse / worsening market signals and economic factors.

5.47 At the lower end of the range, the 240 dpa ensures that at the very least the economy does not decline further due to anticipated job losses and a declining population of working age. This also aligns with the Index Headship Rates Baseline Scenario, which accelerates household formation post 2021 in response to improving market conditions.

5.48 In defining the top end of the range, the evidence suggests that certain market signals, specifically the Affordability Ratio, are relatively high when set against comparable areas, and worsening. In such circumstances, Government

17 The assessment relies upon the 2011 SNPP rather than the latest 2012 figures which were published after the analysis for this SHMA was undertaken.

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Guidance recommends that an appropriate supply-side response to addressing these market signals would be to provide an uplift to the level of housing required based purely on the household projections alone.

5.49 On this basis, increasing the OAN up from the index baseline would be justified. As the market response required is not considered to be drastic (as most of the other market signals are showing signs of improving), it is considered that the Catch Up Headship Rate scenario should inform the top end of the range (256 dpa). Furthermore, the top end of the range is also informed by the CLG’s 2011- based (interim) household projections (253 dpa) for the same reasons as above.

5.50 A top-end figure of 265 dpa would therefore represent a 5% uplift on the 2011- based household projections. This would help boost the supply of housing land to redress worsening market signals, aimed particularly at reducing the very high affordability ratio.

5.51 As regards economic factors, whilst it is recognised that there is not a direct causal relationship between employment growth and dwelling needs, clearly the two are fundamentally related.

5.52 However, clearly there is a national policy requirement for LPAs to ‘do everything they can’ to boost the level of economic growth in their area. Hence providing a dwelling requirement at the top end of the range that would at the very least stabilise the local economy would prevent future decline. Whilst stabilising the economy may not appear on the face of it to be a pro-active economic growth strategy, it is an appropriate response given that otherwise Tamworth is projected to lose almost 2,200 residents aged in the critical working age (16 to 64) category in the latest 2012-based SNPP.

5.53 The scale of job growth forecast in Experian’s latest projections would result in a level of population growth many times greater than has been achieved in the past and also far above the level projected in the 2012-based SNPP for the Borough. As such, this was considered an outlier alongside the Past Trends job growth scenario (which projected a negative housing need).

5.54 The top end of the range would also increase the number of jobs to be provided in the Borough and would also accelerate the amount of housing that has been delivered in the past (189 dpa) in an effort to respond to the worsening housing market signals in accordance with the requirements of The Framework. It would also provide a reasonable amount of affordable housing (potentially 52 dwellings per annum, based on a 20% requirement) in response to the level of need defined in the 2012 SHMA.

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6.0 Conclusions

6.1 Having assessed all the scenarios tested it is NLP’s recommendation that an objective assessment of housing need and demand for Tamworth Borough falls within the range of 240 dpa – 265 dpa .

6.2 The ranges takes the CLG’s most recent household projections as the starting point for identifying need, accelerating household formation post 2021 to allow for the return to growth and increased headship rates. A judgement was then taken to increase this 2012-based Index Baseline Scenario starting point to allow for (slightly) worsening housing market signals.

6.3 This range provides a realistic level of housing delivery which will support economic growth and address potentially worsening housing market signals, whilst meeting the full demographically-assessed need for housing in the Borough. The top end of the range would also help to deliver around 52 affordable dwellings annually across the Borough, based on a target of 20% affordable housing provision, which appears a reasonable target given that affordable housing is likely to come forward through other sources as well as s.106 agreements on private market-led housing developments.

6.4 In terms of how these revised OAN ranges compare with the recommendations set within the previous HEaDROOM report and subsequent Updates: a Tamworth’s revised OAN range, of 240-265 dpa, is identical to the range recommended in the most recent May 2013 Update (240-265 dpa), and encompasses the 250 dpa figure recognised by the Council as comprising their OAN housing requirement in their emerging Local Plan. b On the basis that there is no change to Tamworth Borough’s latest OAN housing figure (based on the 2012-based SNPP modelling) from the May 2013 Update, there would be no implications for the wider HMA – there is a continuation of the previous situation.

6.5 If TBC was to pursue a figure significantly lower than the top end of the range whilst also planning for substantial job growth despite an ageing population, it would need to justify how it would mitigate or avoid the adverse housing, economic and other outcomes that a lower-growth approach would give rise to. It would also need to evidence how the adverse impacts of meeting housing need would ‘significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits’ [The Framework, §14] as well as make provision, through the duty-to-cooperate, for those needs to be met in full elsewhere within the wider strategic HMA.

6.6 Supply-side factors, such as development constraints, policy constraints, infrastructure and environmental capacity, land supply and development viability amongst other considerations, are beyond the remit of this Housing Needs Study Update, but may give an indication as to where the target may sit within the OAN ranges defined above. Similarly, such factors may provide TBC with the rationale to deliver more or less than an objective assessment of need, based upon the range of evidence supporting its Local Plan.

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Appendix 1 Inputs and Assumptions

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DEMOGRAPH Scenario A: Baseline (Scenario Aa-Ad Headship Sensitivities) Scenarios B/C – Scenario D – Zero Net Migration IC Short/Long term Migration Population

Baseline A 2012 baseline population is taken from the 2012 Mid-year population estimates for Tamworth Borough, split by age cohort and gender. For Scenario A and the Population sensitivities, the populations for 2012-2031 are constrained to the 2012-based SNPP for the Borough, by age and sex. Births Future change assumed in the Total Fertility Rate [TFR] uses the birth projections from the ONS 2012-based Interim SNPP. This in turn is used to derive future projected TFRs through PopGroup. Deaths Future change assumed in the SMR uses the death projections from the ONS 2012-based Interim SNPP. This in turn is used to derive future projected SMRs through PopGroup. Internal Gross domestic in and out migration flows are adopted based on forecast migration Gross domestic internal Gross domestic in and out migration flows are Migration in the Borough from the ONS 2012-based SNPP for the actual internal migration migration flows are adopted based on forecast migration in the flows 2012-2031. This is the sum of internal migration (elsewhere in England) and adopted based on districts from the ONS 2012-based SNPP for cross-border migration (elsewhere in the UK) (SNPP Table 5). Internal migration average gross past trends the actual internal migration flows 2011-2031. includes moves to all other Local Authority areas, including to neighbouring areas for the past 5/10 years. To achieve zero net migration the difference (i.e. a move of two streets might be classed as internal migration if it involves a between in and out flows is split to equalise the move to another LA area). in and out flows at the middle point of the two. International Gross international in and out migration flows are adopted based on forecast Gross international As above, but for international rather than Migration migration in the Borough from the ONS 2012-based SNPP for the actual internal migration flows are internal migration. migration flows 2012-2031. adopted based on average gross past trends for the past 5/10 years. Propensity to Age Specific Migration Rates (ASMigR) for both in and out domestic migration are based upon the age profile of migrants to and from the Borough in the 2012-based Migrate (Age SNPP. These identify a migration rate for each age cohort within the Borough (for both in and out flows separately) which is applied to each individual age providing Specific an Age Specific Migration Rate. This then drives the demographic profile of those people moving into and out of the Borough (but not the total numbers of migrants). Migration Rates)

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DEMOGRAPH Scenario A: Baseline (Scenario Aa-Ad Headship Sensitivities) Scenarios B/C – Scenario D – Zero Net Migration IC Short/Long term Migration Housing

Headship Headship rates that are specific to TBC and forecast over the period to 2033 were taken from the government data which was used to underpin the 2011-based CLG Rates household forecasts and applied to the demographic forecasts for each year as output by the PopGroup model. These headship rates were split by age cohort and by household typology. These are the most up-to-date headship rates available at the time of writing. Beyond 2021 this is assumed to resume the long term trends identified within the 2008-based household projections with index trends from the 2008-based projections applied to the 2021 end point of the 2011-based household projections. For the Baseline sensitivity tests (Aa, Ab, Ac and Ad), a variety of headship rates has been modelled using higher / lower household representation rates post 2021: • Static = Constant 2021 rate applied for each year post-2021; • Trend = CLG 2011-based household projection trend continued on a linear basis post 2021; • Partial Catch Up = Change post 2021 is targeted to partially achieve CLG 2008-based Household Projections end rates by 2033; • Catch Up = Change post 2021 is targeted to achieve CLG 2008-based Household Projections end rates by 2033 (generally the High Rate). Post 2033, the rate is held constant. Population The number of population not in households (e.g. those in institutional care) is similarly taken from the assumptions used to underpin the 2011-based CLG household not in forecasts. No change is assumed to the rate of this from the CLG identified rate. households Vacancy / 2nd A vacancy and second homes rate is applied to the number of households, representing the natural vacancies / not permanently occupied homes which occur within Home Rate the housing market. This means that more dwellings than households are required to meet needs. The vacancy / second home rate in Tamworth Borough totals 1.9% (estimated using data from the Council Tax Base for Formula Grant Purposes, October 2013), held constant over the forecast period. Economic

Economic 2011 Census Economic Activity Rates used for each age cohort to equate to the 2010 and 2011 economic activity profile for the Borough. From 2012 onwards, an Activity Rate adjustment has been made to reflect the changes to the State Pension Age; the propensity for people to live longer and retire later; and the growth of part time opportunities amongst other challenges. The NLP approach mirrors that put forward by Kent County Council in their Technical Paper: “ Activity Rate projections to 2036, Research and Evaluation, Business Strategy and Support ” (October 2011). The increase in rates, which is most pronounced for women over the age of 60 and males between the ages of 65-69, are gradually increased from 2012 onwards up to 2020, whereby they are held constant across the remainder of the forecasting period. Commuting A standard net commuting rate is inferred through the modelling using a Labour Force Ratio which is worked out using the formula: (A) Number of employed workers Rate living in area ÷ (B) Number of workers who work in the area (number of jobs). For Tamworth Borough, data from the 2011 Census indicates that there were 38,281 economically active residents in employment. In contrast, in 2011 there were 27,077 jobs in Cannock Chase (BRES), hence rate of LF ratio of 1.41 (i.e. more people commute out of Tamworth than commute in on a daily basis). This rate has not been flexed over the forecasting period with no assumed increase or reduction in net commuting rates.

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DEMOGRAPH Scenario A: Baseline (Scenario Aa-Ad Headship Sensitivities) Scenarios B/C – Scenario D – Zero Net Migration IC Short/Long term Migration Unemployme To calculate the unemployment rate for Tamworth NLP took the January-December 2010 NOMIS (modelled) unemployment figure (TBC 9.4%) to equate to the 2010 nt rate; the equivalent 2011 figure (TBC 9.8%) to equate to the 2011 rate; the equivalent 2012 figure (TBC 8.1%) to equate to 2012 and the equivalent 2013 figure (TBC 5.3%) to equate to 2013. NLP kept the former figure constant for 2014 and 2015 to reflect initial stabilisation at the current high rate, and then gradually reduced the rate on a linear basis to the long term average (04-13) (TBC 6.37%) over a five-year time frame. These figures were then held constant to the end of the forecasting period on the grounds that this is a better reflection of the long-term trend than the current high rate.

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ECONOMIC Scenario F. Experian Job Growth Scenario G: Constant Labour Supply Scenario H: Past Trends Job Growth Population

Baseline A 2012 baseline population is taken from the 2012 Mid-year population estimates for Tamworth Borough, split by age cohort and gender. For Scenario A and the Population sensitivities, the populations for 2012-2031 are constrained to the 2012-based SNPP for the Borough, by age and sex. Births Future change assumed in the Total Fertility Rate [TFR] uses the birth projections from the ONS 2012-based Interim SNPP. This in turn is used to derive future projected TFRs through PopGroup. Deaths Future change assumed in the SMR uses the death projections from the ONS 2012-based Interim SNPP. This in turn is used to derive future projected SMRs through PopGroup. Internal Internal in-migration and outmigration is flexed Internal in-migration and outmigration is flexed Internal in-migration and outmigration is flexed Migration (inflated or deflated) to achieve the necessary (inflated or deflated) to achieve the necessary (inflated or deflated) to achieve the necessary number number of economically active people to underpin the number of economically active people to underpin of economically active people to underpin the economy in the Borough for this employment the economy in the Borough for this employment economy in the Borough for this employment scenario. scenario. scenario. This was based on taking forward forecast job growth This was based on job stabilisation between 2012 This was based on taking forward forecast job growth based on Experian projections (+4,100 in TBC). and 2031. based on past job growth achieved between 2000 and 2012 continuing into the future (job decline of -250 per annum in TBC). Internation As above, but for international rather than internal migration. al Migration Propensity Age Specific Migration Rates (ASMigR) for both in and out domestic migration are based upon the age profile of migrants to and from the Borough in the 2012-based to Migrate SNPP. These identify a migration rate for each age cohort within the Borough (for both in and out flows separately) which is applied to each individual age providing an (Age Age Specific Migration Rate. This then drives the demographic profile of those people moving into and out of the Borough (but not the total numbers of migrants). Specific Migration Rates) Housing

Headship Headship rates that are specific to TBC and forecast over the period to 2033 were taken from the government data which was used to underpin the 2011-based CLG Rates household forecasts and applied to the demographic forecasts for each year as output by the PopGroup model. These headship rates were split by age cohort and by household typology. These are the most up-to-date headship rates available at the time of writing. Beyond 2021 this is assumed to resume the long term trends identified within the 2008-based household projections with index trends from the 2008-based projections applied to the 2021 end point of the 2011-based household projections.

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ECONOMIC Scenario F. Experian Job Growth Scenario G: Constant Labour Supply Scenario H: Past Trends Job Growth Population The number of population not in households (e.g. those in institutional care) is similarly taken from the assumptions used to underpin the 2011-based CLG household not in forecasts. No change is assumed to the rate of this from the CLG identified rate. household s Vacancy / A vacancy and second homes rate is applied to the number of households, representing the natural vacancies / not permanently occupied homes which occur within the 2nd Home housing market. This means that more dwellings than households are required to meet needs. The vacancy / second home rate in Tamworth Borough totals 1.9% Rate (estimated using data from the Council Tax Base for Formula Grant Purposes, October 2013), held constant over the forecast period. Economic

Economic 2011 Census Economic Activity Rates used for each age cohort to equate to the 2010 and 2011 economic activity profile for the Borough. From 2012 onwards, an Activity adjustment has been made to reflect the changes to the State Pension Age; the propensity for people to live longer and retire later; and the growth of part time Rate opportunities amongst other challenges. The NLP approach mirrors that put forward by Kent County Council in their Technical Paper: “ Activity Rate projections to 2036, Research and Evaluation, Business Strategy and Support ” (October 2011). The increase in rates, which is most pronounced for women over the age of 60 and males between the ages of 65-69, are gradually increased from 2012 onwards up to 2020, whereby they are held constant across the remainder of the forecasting period. Commuting A standard net commuting rate is inferred through the modelling using a Labour Force Ratio which is worked out using the formula: (A) Number of employed workers Rate living in area ÷ (B) Number of workers who work in the area (number of jobs). For Tamworth, there were 38,281 economically active residents in employment, set against 27,077 jobs in 2011. This results in an LF ratio of 1.41 for the Borough. These rates have not been flexed over the forecasting period with no assumed increase or reduction in net commuting rates. Unemploy To calculate the unemployment rate for Tamworth NLP took the January-December 2010 NOMIS (modelled) unemployment figure (9.4%) to equate to the 2010 rate; the ment equivalent 2011 figure (9.8%) to equate to the 2011 rate; the equivalent 2012 figure (8.1%) to equate to 2012 and the equivalent 2013 figure (5.3%) to equate to 2013. NLP kept the former figure constant for 2014 and 2015 to reflect initial stabilisation at the current high rate, and then gradually reduced the rate on a linear basis to the long term average (04-13) (6.37%) over a five-year time frame. These figures were then held constant to the end of the forecasting period on the grounds that this is a better reflection of the long-term trend than the current high rate.

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Appendix 2 PopGroup Summary

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SCENARIO A: PopGroup Baseline TAMWORTH Change 2012 2031 % Change 2012-31 2012-31 Population 77,118 82,483 5,365 7%

Households 31,853 36,256 4,403 14%

Dwellings 32,470 36,958 4,488 14%

Size of Labour Force 41,211 40,186 -1,025 -2%

Number of Jobs 26,788 26,614 -174 -1%

SCENARIO Aa: PopGroup Baseline – STATIC HEADSHIP TAMWORTH Change 2012 2031 % Change 2012-31 2012-31 Population 77,118 82,483 5,365 7%

Households 31,853 35,918 4,066 13%

Dwellings 32,470 36,614 4,144 13%

Size of Labour Force 41,211 40,186 -1,025 -2%

Number of Jobs 26,788 26,614 -174 -1%

SCENARIO Ab: PopGroup Baseline – TREND HEADSHIP TAMWORTH Change 2012 2031 % Change 2012-31 2012-31 Population 77,118 82,483 5,365 7%

Households 31,853 35,172 3,319 10%

Dwellings 32,470 35,853 3,383 10%

Size of Labour Force 41,211 40,186 -1,025 -2%

Number of Jobs 26,788 26,614 -174 -1%

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SCENARIO Ac: PopGroup Baseline – PARTIAL CATCH UP HEADSHIP TAMWORTH Change 2012 2031 % Change 2012-31 2012-31 Population 77,118 82,483 5,365 7%

Households 31,853 35,906 4,054 13%

Dwellings 32,470 36,602 4,132 13%

Size of Labour Force 41,211 40,186 -1,025 -2%

Number of Jobs 26,788 26,614 -174 -1%

SCENARIO Ad: PopGroup Baseline – CATCH UP HEADSHIP TAMWORTH Change 2012 2031 % Change 2012-31 2012-31 Population 77,118 82,483 5,365 7%

Households 31,853 36,627 4,774 15%

Dwellings 32,470 37,336 4,867 15%

Size of Labour Force 41,211 40,186 -1,025 -2%

Number of Jobs 26,788 26,614 -174 -1%

SCENARIO B: Short Term Migration Trends TAMWORTH Change 2012 2031 % Change 2012-31 2012-31 Population 77,118 79,785 2,667 3%

Households 31,853 35,322 3,469 11%

Dwellings 32,470 36,006 3,536 11%

Size of Labour Force 41,211 38,918 -2,293 -6%

Number of Jobs 26,788 25,774 -1,014 -4%

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SCENARIO C: Long Term Migration Trends TAMWORTH Change 2012 2031 % Change 2012-31 2012-31 Population 77,118 79,343 2,225 3%

Households 31,853 35,149 3,296 10%

Dwellings 32,470 35,830 3,360 10%

Size of Labour Force 41,211 38,646 -2,565 -6%

Number of Jobs 26,788 25,594 -1,195 -4%

SCENARIO D: Zero Net Migration TAMWORTH Change 2012 2031 % Change 2012-31 2012-31 Population 77,118 82,516 5,398 7%

Households 31,853 36,180 4,327 14%

Dwellings 32,470 36,881 4,411 14%

Size of Labour Force 41,211 40,699 -512 -1%

Number of Jobs 26,788 26,953 165 1%

SCENARIO F: Experian Job Growth TAMWORTH Change 2012 2031 % Change 2012-31 2012-31 Population 77,118 93,672 16,554 21%

Households 31,853 40,522 8,669 27%

Dwellings 32,470 41,307 8,837 27%

Size of Labour Force 41,211 46,640 5,429 13%

Number of Jobs 26,788 30,888 4,100 15%

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SCENARIO G: Job Stabilisation TAMWORTH Change 2012 2031 % Change 2012-31 2012-31 Population 77,118 82,596 5,478 7%

Households 31,853 36,338 4,485 14%

Dwellings 32,470 37,042 4,572 14%

Size of Labour Force 41,211 40,450 -761 -2%

Number of Jobs 26,788 26,788 0 0%

SCENARIO H: Past Trends Job Growth TAMWORTH Change 2012 2031 % Change 2012-31 2012-31 Population 77,118 69,801 -7,317 -9%

Households 31,853 31,531 -321 -1%

Dwellings 32,470 32,142 -328 -1%

Size of Labour Force 41,211 33,277 -7,934 -19%

Number of Jobs 26,788 22,038 -4,750 -18%

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Appendix 3 PopGroup Output Sheets

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Population Estimates and Forecasts Baseline

Components of Population Change Tamworth Year beginning July 1st ………….. 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 Births Male 504 510 511 506 502 500 500 497 494 490 487 484 481 478 476 474 472 470 469 469 468 469 470 471 473 475

Female 480 486 487 482 478 477 477 473 470 467 464 461 458 456 454 452 450 448 447 446 446 447 448 449 451 453

All Births 984 996 998 988 981 977 977 971 964 957 951 945 940 934 930 926 922 919 916 915 915 915 918 921 924 928 TFR 1.94 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.96 1.95 1.96 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 Births input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Deaths Male 240 294 286 288 296 293 300 305 310 316 321 327 334 340 347 355 361 368 376 383 388 394 402 408 412 416 Female 299 316 295 291 295 300 303 306 309 314 320 325 329 334 339 346 354 361 369 377 384 390 398 405 412 418 All deaths 539 610 581 579 591 594 604 610 619 630 640 653 663 674 686 701 714 729 744 760 772 784 800 813 823 834 SMR: males 94.0 110.7 103.6 100.3 99.2 94.8 93.3 91.0 89.1 87.4 85.5 84.0 82.5 80.9 79.7 78.7 77.1 76.0 75.1 74.3 72.9 71.9 71.3 70.3 69.2 68.5 SMR: females 112.6 115.7 105.3 100.7 98.7 97.4 95.4 93.0 91.0 89.4 87.7 86.2 84.0 82.6 80.9 79.6 78.5 77.4 76.3 75.3 74.4 73.3 72.5 71.5 70.7 69.9 SMR: persons 103.5 113.2 104.5 100.5 99.0 96.1 94.4 92.0 90.0 88.4 86.6 85.1 83.2 81.7 80.3 79.1 77.8 76.7 75.7 74.8 73.7 72.6 71.9 70.9 70.0 69.2 Expectation of life: males 79.9 78.0 79.0 79.2 79.4 80.0 80.0 80.5 80.7 81.0 81.2 81.5 81.7 82.0 82.2 82.4 82.6 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.5 83.5 83.8 84.0 84.1 Expectation of life: females 81.9 81.7 82.7 83.1 83.3 83.4 83.7 83.9 84.1 84.4 84.5 84.7 85.0 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 85.9 86.0 86.2 86.3 86.5 86.6 86.8 87.0 87.1 Expectation of life: persons 81.0 80.0 80.9 81.3 81.5 81.8 82.0 82.3 82.5 82.8 83.0 83.2 83.5 83.7 83.9 84.1 84.3 84.4 84.6 84.7 84.9 85.0 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 Deaths input **************************

In-migration from the UK Male 1,274 1,309 1,314 1,321 1,327 1,332 1,337 1,341 1,344 1,347 1,349 1,351 1,353 1,356 1,360 1,365 1,371 1,376 1,382 1,387 1,393 1,398 1,404 1,409 1,415 1,420 Female 1,344 1,390 1,394 1,398 1,401 1,404 1,406 1,408 1,408 1,407 1,407 1,406 1,407 1,410 1,414 1,419 1,424 1,430 1,437 1,443 1,449 1,456 1,463 1,468 1,474 1,480

All 2,618 2,699 2,708 2,719 2,728 2,736 2,743 2,749 2,752 2,754 2,755 2,757 2,760 2,766 2,774 2,783 2,795 2,807 2,819 2,830 2,842 2,854 2,866 2,877 2,889 2,901 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to the UK Male 1,442 1,426 1,426 1,425 1,426 1,424 1,419 1,415 1,413 1,405 1,405 1,410 1,410 1,408 1,409 1,415 1,413 1,414 1,413 1,413 1,412 1,415 1,418 1,420 1,422 1,424 Female 1,445 1,426 1,418 1,418 1,422 1,415 1,410 1,409 1,405 1,402 1,398 1,405 1,400 1,400 1,406 1,412 1,416 1,412 1,416 1,419 1,422 1,426 1,429 1,434 1,439 1,442 All 2,887 2,851 2,844 2,842 2,847 2,839 2,829 2,824 2,818 2,807 2,803 2,815 2,810 2,808 2,815 2,827 2,829 2,826 2,830 2,832 2,834 2,841 2,847 2,853 2,861 2,867 SMigR: males 35.9 35.8 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.7 35.8 35.9 36.0 35.9 35.9 36.0 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.7 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 SMigR: females 35.1 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.9 35.0 35.0 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 Migrants input **************************

In-migration from Overseas

Male 231 117 119 121 123 118 121 119 119 119 120 120 121 120 121 123 123 124 124 124 124 124 125 125 124 123

Female 270 92 93 94 98 95 95 92 93 92 93 92 93 92 93 93 94 95 95 95 97 97 96 95 95 94 All 501 208 212 215 221 213 215 211 212 211 212 213 213 213 214 216 217 218 219 219 221 220 221 220 219 217 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to Overseas Male 231 92 95 98 96 93 96 96 96 96 97 97 97 97 98 100 100 101 101 100 101 100 101 101 101 99 Female 223 68 69 70 72 70 70 68 69 68 69 69 69 69 69 69 70 71 71 72 73 73 72 72 71 70 All 454 161 164 168 168 163 165 164 165 164 165 166 166 166 167 169 170 171 172 172 174 173 173 173 171 169 SMigR: males 101.9 41.1 42.3 43.8 43.2 42.1 43.4 43.6 43.7 43.8 44.3 44.7 45.1 45.1 45.6 46.7 46.5 46.7 46.8 46.4 46.5 46.2 46.5 46.5 46.2 45.4 SMigR: females 120.3 37.1 37.9 38.4 39.4 38.7 38.6 37.8 38.4 38.2 38.7 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.8 39.8 40.6 40.7 40.9 41.2 42.1 41.7 41.1 40.8 40.3 39.8 Migrants input **************************

Migration - Net Flows UK -269 -152 -136 -124 -119 -103 -86 -75 -66 -53 -48 -59 -51 -42 -41 -44 -34 -19 -11 -2 +8 +13 +19 +24 +28 +34 Overseas +47 +48 +48 +47 +53 +49 +50 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +48 +47 +47 +47

Summary of population change

Natural change +445 +385 +417 +409 +390 +383 +373 +360 +345 +327 +310 +293 +277 +260 +244 +225 +207 +190 +172 +155 +143 +131 +117 +108 +101 +94 Net migration -222 -105 -88 -77 -66 -54 -37 -28 -19 -6 -1 -12 -4 +5 +6 +3 +13 +28 +36 +46 +56 +60 +66 +71 +76 +82 Net change +223 +281 +329 +332 +324 +330 +337 +332 +326 +321 +310 +281 +273 +265 +250 +228 +221 +218 +208 +201 +198 +192 +183 +179 +176 +175 Crude Birth Rate /000 12.78 12.89 12.87 12.68 12.54 12.44 12.39 12.25 12.12 11.99 11.86 11.75 11.63 11.53 11.44 11.36 11.28 11.21 11.15 11.11 11.07 11.06 11.06 11.07 11.09 11.11 Crude Death Rate /000 7.00 7.90 7.49 7.43 7.55 7.56 7.65 7.70 7.78 7.89 7.99 8.11 8.21 8.32 8.44 8.60 8.74 8.89 9.06 9.22 9.35 9.47 9.65 9.77 9.88 9.99 Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -2.88 -1.36 -1.14 -0.98 -0.85 -0.68 -0.46 -0.36 -0.24 -0.08 -0.01 -0.15 -0.04 0.06 0.08 0.04 0.16 0.34 0.44 0.55 0.67 0.73 0.80 0.86 0.91 0.98

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts Population at mid-year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 0-4 5,074 5,079 4,979 4,910 4,875 4,850 4,849 4,837 4,815 4,796 4,777 4,754 4,727 4,700 4,674 4,650 4,628 4,607 4,587 4,571 4,558 4,548 4,542 4,542 4,547 4,556 4,570 5-10 5,460 5,493 5,707 5,892 5,888 5,959 5,989 6,006 5,929 5,869 5,839 5,815 5,815 5,803 5,783 5,763 5,742 5,720 5,692 5,665 5,638 5,613 5,590 5,567 5,548 5,532 5,520 11-15 4,830 4,827 4,615 4,473 4,540 4,527 4,530 4,632 4,827 4,866 4,950 5,009 5,019 4,949 4,905 4,885 4,867 4,866 4,863 4,850 4,838 4,825 4,809 4,789 4,767 4,746 4,726 16-17 1,975 1,936 2,021 2,042 1,917 1,850 1,839 1,767 1,702 1,839 1,894 1,838 1,881 1,995 2,061 2,015 1,985 1,963 1,948 1,956 1,957 1,951 1,947 1,946 1,943 1,936 1,929 18-59Female, 64Male 45,726 45,410 45,187 45,011 45,007 44,929 44,783 44,627 44,478 44,260 44,062 44,007 43,858 43,736 43,588 43,518 43,452 43,352 43,225 43,062 42,890 42,804 42,680 42,633 42,642 42,645 42,688 60/65 -74 9,165 9,526 9,882 10,182 10,395 10,625 10,855 11,008 11,098 11,208 11,303 11,203 11,145 11,142 11,243 11,370 11,479 11,579 11,700 11,884 12,074 12,184 12,340 12,416 12,400 12,387 12,345 75-84 3,467 3,600 3,709 3,856 4,024 4,151 4,305 4,505 4,807 5,062 5,300 5,706 6,058 6,324 6,533 6,717 6,867 6,976 7,059 7,109 7,163 7,097 7,050 7,052 7,123 7,215 7,308 85+ 1,198 1,247 1,298 1,360 1,413 1,493 1,564 1,669 1,726 1,806 1,905 2,007 2,117 2,243 2,371 2,489 2,615 2,793 3,000 3,185 3,365 3,660 3,914 4,110 4,265 4,393 4,501 Total 76,895 77,118 77,399 77,728 78,060 78,384 78,714 79,050 79,382 79,708 80,029 80,339 80,620 80,893 81,158 81,408 81,636 81,856 82,074 82,282 82,483 82,681 82,873 83,056 83,235 83,412 83,587

Dependency ratios, mean age and sex ratio 0-15 / 16-65 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 65+ / 16-65 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.46 0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 Median age males 37.5 37.9 38.1 38.3 38.5 38.7 38.8 38.8 39.0 39.2 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.8 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.4 40.5 40.7 40.9 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.5 41.6 41.7 Median age females 39.0 39.5 39.8 40.2 40.5 40.8 40.9 41.2 41.3 41.5 41.6 41.8 42.0 42.2 42.5 42.7 42.9 43.1 43.3 43.5 43.7 43.8 44.0 44.1 44.3 44.4 44.6 Sex ratio males /100 females 96.3 96.2 96.2 96.1 95.9 95.8 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.4 95.3 95.2 95.2 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.7 94.7 94.6 94.5 94.5 94.4 94.3 94.3 94.3 94.2

Population impact of constraint Number of persons +30 -2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Households Number of Households 31,651 31,853 32,090 32,307 32,517 32,738 32,964 33,189 33,396 33,603 33,799 34,099 34,395 34,688 34,930 35,188 35,427 35,650 35,879 36,072 36,256 36,441 36,625 36,792 36,943 37,089 37,221 Change in Households over previous year -2 +202 +238 +217 +210 +221 +226 +225 +207 +208 +196 +299 +297 +293 +242 +258 +239 +223 +228 +193 +184 +185 +184 +167 +151 +146 +131 Number of supply units 32,264 32,470 32,712 32,933 33,147 33,372 33,602 33,831 34,043 34,254 34,454 34,759 35,061 35,360 35,607 35,869 36,113 36,341 36,574 36,770 36,958 37,147 37,335 37,504 37,659 37,808 37,942 Change in over previous year -2 +206 +242 +221 +214 +226 +230 +229 +211 +212 +200 +305 +302 +299 +247 +263 +244 +228 +233 +197 +188 +189 +188 +170 +154 +149 +134

Labour Force Number of Labour Force 41,300 41,211 41,175 41,135 41,112 41,106 41,075 41,020 41,046 41,024 40,928 40,835 40,762 40,719 40,623 40,524 40,449 40,384 40,335 40,266 40,186 40,155 40,108 40,077 40,056 40,029 40,040 Change in Labour Force over previous year-63 -89 -36 -40 -23 -6 -31 -55 +26 -22 -96 -93 -73 -43 -96 -99 -75 -64 -49 -70 -79 -32 -46 -32 -21 -27 +11 Number of supply units 26,350 26,788 27,581 27,553 27,538 27,472 27,389 27,291 27,246 27,169 27,105 27,044 26,996 26,967 26,903 26,838 26,788 26,745 26,713 26,667 26,614 26,593 26,562 26,541 26,528 26,510 26,517 Change in over previous year -157 +439 +792 -27 -16 -66 -83 -99 -45 -77 -64 -62 -48 -29 -63 -66 -50 -42 -33 -46 -52 -21 -31 -21 -14 -18 +7 Population Estimates and Forecasts Baseline + Static

Components of Population Change Tamworth Year beginning July 1st ………….. 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 Births Male 504 510 511 506 502 500 500 497 494 490 487 484 481 478 476 474 472 470 469 469 468 469 470 471 473 475

Female 480 486 487 482 478 477 477 473 470 467 464 461 458 456 454 452 450 448 447 446 446 447 448 449 451 453

All Births 984 996 998 988 981 977 977 971 964 957 951 945 940 934 930 926 922 919 916 915 915 915 918 921 924 928 TFR 1.94 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.96 1.95 1.96 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 Births input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Deaths Male 240 294 286 288 296 293 300 305 310 316 321 327 334 340 347 355 361 368 376 383 388 394 402 408 412 416 Female 299 316 295 291 295 300 303 306 309 314 320 325 329 334 339 346 354 361 369 377 384 390 398 405 412 418 All deaths 539 610 581 579 591 594 604 610 619 630 640 653 663 674 686 701 714 729 744 760 772 784 800 813 823 834 SMR: males 94.0 110.7 103.6 100.3 99.2 94.8 93.3 91.0 89.1 87.4 85.5 84.0 82.5 80.9 79.7 78.7 77.1 76.0 75.1 74.3 72.9 71.9 71.3 70.3 69.2 68.5 SMR: females 112.6 115.7 105.3 100.7 98.7 97.4 95.4 93.0 91.0 89.4 87.7 86.2 84.0 82.6 80.9 79.6 78.5 77.4 76.3 75.3 74.4 73.3 72.5 71.5 70.7 69.9 SMR: persons 103.5 113.2 104.5 100.5 99.0 96.1 94.4 92.0 90.0 88.4 86.6 85.1 83.2 81.7 80.3 79.1 77.8 76.7 75.7 74.8 73.7 72.6 71.9 70.9 70.0 69.2 Expectation of life: males 79.9 78.0 79.0 79.2 79.4 80.0 80.0 80.5 80.7 81.0 81.2 81.5 81.7 82.0 82.2 82.4 82.6 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.5 83.5 83.8 84.0 84.1 Expectation of life: females 81.9 81.7 82.7 83.1 83.3 83.4 83.7 83.9 84.1 84.4 84.5 84.7 85.0 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 85.9 86.0 86.2 86.3 86.5 86.6 86.8 87.0 87.1 Expectation of life: persons 81.0 80.0 80.9 81.3 81.5 81.8 82.0 82.3 82.5 82.8 83.0 83.2 83.5 83.7 83.9 84.1 84.3 84.4 84.6 84.7 84.9 85.0 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 Deaths input **************************

In-migration from the UK Male 1,274 1,309 1,314 1,321 1,327 1,332 1,337 1,341 1,344 1,347 1,349 1,351 1,353 1,356 1,360 1,365 1,371 1,376 1,382 1,387 1,393 1,398 1,404 1,409 1,415 1,420 Female 1,344 1,390 1,394 1,398 1,401 1,404 1,406 1,408 1,408 1,407 1,407 1,406 1,407 1,410 1,414 1,419 1,424 1,430 1,437 1,443 1,449 1,456 1,463 1,468 1,474 1,480

All 2,618 2,699 2,708 2,719 2,728 2,736 2,743 2,749 2,752 2,754 2,755 2,757 2,760 2,766 2,774 2,783 2,795 2,807 2,819 2,830 2,842 2,854 2,866 2,877 2,889 2,901 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to the UK Male 1,442 1,426 1,426 1,425 1,426 1,424 1,419 1,415 1,413 1,405 1,405 1,410 1,410 1,408 1,409 1,415 1,413 1,414 1,413 1,413 1,412 1,415 1,418 1,420 1,422 1,424 Female 1,445 1,426 1,418 1,418 1,422 1,415 1,410 1,409 1,405 1,402 1,398 1,405 1,400 1,400 1,406 1,412 1,416 1,412 1,416 1,419 1,422 1,426 1,429 1,434 1,439 1,442 All 2,887 2,851 2,844 2,842 2,847 2,839 2,829 2,824 2,818 2,807 2,803 2,815 2,810 2,808 2,815 2,827 2,829 2,826 2,830 2,832 2,834 2,841 2,847 2,853 2,861 2,867 SMigR: males 35.9 35.8 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.7 35.8 35.9 36.0 35.9 35.9 36.0 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.7 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 SMigR: females 35.1 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.9 35.0 35.0 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 Migrants input **************************

In-migration from Overseas

Male 231 117 119 121 123 118 121 119 119 119 120 120 121 120 121 123 123 124 124 124 124 124 125 125 124 123

Female 270 92 93 94 98 95 95 92 93 92 93 92 93 92 93 93 94 95 95 95 97 97 96 95 95 94 All 501 208 212 215 221 213 215 211 212 211 212 213 213 213 214 216 217 218 219 219 221 220 221 220 219 217 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to Overseas Male 231 92 95 98 96 93 96 96 96 96 97 97 97 97 98 100 100 101 101 100 101 100 101 101 101 99 Female 223 68 69 70 72 70 70 68 69 68 69 69 69 69 69 69 70 71 71 72 73 73 72 72 71 70 All 454 161 164 168 168 163 165 164 165 164 165 166 166 166 167 169 170 171 172 172 174 173 173 173 171 169 SMigR: males 101.9 41.1 42.3 43.8 43.2 42.1 43.4 43.6 43.7 43.8 44.3 44.7 45.1 45.1 45.6 46.7 46.5 46.7 46.8 46.4 46.5 46.2 46.5 46.5 46.2 45.4 SMigR: females 120.3 37.1 37.9 38.4 39.4 38.7 38.6 37.8 38.4 38.2 38.7 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.8 39.8 40.6 40.7 40.9 41.2 42.1 41.7 41.1 40.8 40.3 39.8 Migrants input **************************

Migration - Net Flows UK -269 -152 -136 -124 -119 -103 -86 -75 -66 -53 -48 -59 -51 -42 -41 -44 -34 -19 -11 -2 +8 +13 +19 +24 +28 +34 Overseas +47 +48 +48 +47 +53 +49 +50 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +48 +47 +47 +47

Summary of population change

Natural change +445 +385 +417 +409 +390 +383 +373 +360 +345 +327 +310 +293 +277 +260 +244 +225 +207 +190 +172 +155 +143 +131 +117 +108 +101 +94 Net migration -222 -105 -88 -77 -66 -54 -37 -28 -19 -6 -1 -12 -4 +5 +6 +3 +13 +28 +36 +46 +56 +60 +66 +71 +76 +82 Net change +223 +281 +329 +332 +324 +330 +337 +332 +326 +321 +310 +281 +273 +265 +250 +228 +221 +218 +208 +201 +198 +192 +183 +179 +176 +175 Crude Birth Rate /000 12.78 12.89 12.87 12.68 12.54 12.44 12.39 12.25 12.12 11.99 11.86 11.75 11.63 11.53 11.44 11.36 11.28 11.21 11.15 11.11 11.07 11.06 11.06 11.07 11.09 11.11 Crude Death Rate /000 7.00 7.90 7.49 7.43 7.55 7.56 7.65 7.70 7.78 7.89 7.99 8.11 8.21 8.32 8.44 8.60 8.74 8.89 9.06 9.22 9.35 9.47 9.65 9.77 9.88 9.99 Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -2.88 -1.36 -1.14 -0.98 -0.85 -0.68 -0.46 -0.36 -0.24 -0.08 -0.01 -0.15 -0.04 0.06 0.08 0.04 0.16 0.34 0.44 0.55 0.67 0.73 0.80 0.86 0.91 0.98

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts Population at mid-year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 0-4 5,074 5,079 4,979 4,910 4,875 4,850 4,849 4,837 4,815 4,796 4,777 4,754 4,727 4,700 4,674 4,650 4,628 4,607 4,587 4,571 4,558 4,548 4,542 4,542 4,547 4,556 4,570 5-10 5,460 5,493 5,707 5,892 5,888 5,959 5,989 6,006 5,929 5,869 5,839 5,815 5,815 5,803 5,783 5,763 5,742 5,720 5,692 5,665 5,638 5,613 5,590 5,567 5,548 5,532 5,520 11-15 4,830 4,827 4,615 4,473 4,540 4,527 4,530 4,632 4,827 4,866 4,950 5,009 5,019 4,949 4,905 4,885 4,867 4,866 4,863 4,850 4,838 4,825 4,809 4,789 4,767 4,746 4,726 16-17 1,975 1,936 2,021 2,042 1,917 1,850 1,839 1,767 1,702 1,839 1,894 1,838 1,881 1,995 2,061 2,015 1,985 1,963 1,948 1,956 1,957 1,951 1,947 1,946 1,943 1,936 1,929 18-59Female, 64Male 45,726 45,410 45,187 45,011 45,007 44,929 44,783 44,627 44,478 44,260 44,062 44,007 43,858 43,736 43,588 43,518 43,452 43,352 43,225 43,062 42,890 42,804 42,680 42,633 42,642 42,645 42,688 60/65 -74 9,165 9,526 9,882 10,182 10,395 10,625 10,855 11,008 11,098 11,208 11,303 11,203 11,145 11,142 11,243 11,370 11,479 11,579 11,700 11,884 12,074 12,184 12,340 12,416 12,400 12,387 12,345 75-84 3,467 3,600 3,709 3,856 4,024 4,151 4,305 4,505 4,807 5,062 5,300 5,706 6,058 6,324 6,533 6,717 6,867 6,976 7,059 7,109 7,163 7,097 7,050 7,052 7,123 7,215 7,308 85+ 1,198 1,247 1,298 1,360 1,413 1,493 1,564 1,669 1,726 1,806 1,905 2,007 2,117 2,243 2,371 2,489 2,615 2,793 3,000 3,185 3,365 3,660 3,914 4,110 4,265 4,393 4,501 Total 76,895 77,118 77,399 77,728 78,060 78,384 78,714 79,050 79,382 79,708 80,029 80,339 80,620 80,893 81,158 81,408 81,636 81,856 82,074 82,282 82,483 82,681 82,873 83,056 83,235 83,412 83,587

Dependency ratios, mean age and sex ratio 0-15 / 16-65 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 65+ / 16-65 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.46 0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 Median age males 37.5 37.9 38.1 38.3 38.5 38.7 38.8 38.8 39.0 39.2 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.8 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.4 40.5 40.7 40.9 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.5 41.6 41.7 Median age females 39.0 39.5 39.8 40.2 40.5 40.8 40.9 41.2 41.3 41.5 41.6 41.8 42.0 42.2 42.5 42.7 42.9 43.1 43.3 43.5 43.7 43.8 44.0 44.1 44.3 44.4 44.6 Sex ratio males /100 females 96.3 96.2 96.2 96.1 95.9 95.8 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.4 95.3 95.2 95.2 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.7 94.7 94.6 94.5 94.5 94.4 94.3 94.3 94.3 94.2

Population impact of constraint Number of persons +30 -2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Households Number of Households 31,651 31,853 32,090 32,307 32,517 32,738 32,964 33,189 33,396 33,603 33,799 34,080 34,350 34,585 34,804 35,017 35,197 35,378 35,575 35,746 35,918 36,094 36,273 36,437 36,589 36,732 36,861 Change in Households over previous year -2 +202 +238 +217 +210 +221 +226 +225 +207 +208 +196 +281 +270 +235 +219 +213 +180 +181 +197 +171 +172 +175 +179 +164 +152 +143 +130 Number of supply units 32,264 32,470 32,712 32,933 33,147 33,372 33,602 33,831 34,043 34,254 34,454 34,740 35,015 35,255 35,478 35,695 35,879 36,064 36,264 36,438 36,614 36,793 36,975 37,142 37,297 37,443 37,575 Change in over previous year -2 +206 +242 +221 +214 +226 +230 +229 +211 +212 +200 +286 +275 +240 +223 +217 +184 +185 +201 +174 +176 +179 +183 +167 +155 +146 +132

Labour Force Number of Labour Force 41,300 41,211 41,175 41,135 41,112 41,106 41,075 41,020 41,046 41,024 40,928 40,835 40,762 40,719 40,623 40,524 40,449 40,384 40,335 40,266 40,186 40,155 40,108 40,077 40,056 40,029 40,040 Change in Labour Force over previous year-63 -89 -36 -40 -23 -6 -31 -55 +26 -22 -96 -93 -73 -43 -96 -99 -75 -64 -49 -70 -79 -32 -46 -32 -21 -27 +11 Number of supply units 26,350 26,788 27,581 27,553 27,538 27,472 27,389 27,291 27,246 27,169 27,105 27,044 26,996 26,967 26,903 26,838 26,788 26,745 26,713 26,667 26,614 26,593 26,562 26,541 26,528 26,510 26,517 Change in over previous year -157 +439 +792 -27 -16 -66 -83 -99 -45 -77 -64 -62 -48 -29 -63 -66 -50 -42 -33 -46 -52 -21 -31 -21 -14 -18 +7 Population Estimates and Forecasts Baseline + Trend

Components of Population Change Tamworth Year beginning July 1st ………….. 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 Births Male 504 510 511 506 502 500 500 497 494 490 487 484 481 478 476 474 472 470 469 469 468 469 470 471 473 475

Female 480 486 487 482 478 477 477 473 470 467 464 461 458 456 454 452 450 448 447 446 446 447 448 449 451 453

All Births 984 996 998 988 981 977 977 971 964 957 951 945 940 934 930 926 922 919 916 915 915 915 918 921 924 928 TFR 1.94 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.96 1.95 1.96 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 Births input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Deaths Male 240 294 286 288 296 293 300 305 310 316 321 327 334 340 347 355 361 368 376 383 388 394 402 408 412 416 Female 299 316 295 291 295 300 303 306 309 314 320 325 329 334 339 346 354 361 369 377 384 390 398 405 412 418 All deaths 539 610 581 579 591 594 604 610 619 630 640 653 663 674 686 701 714 729 744 760 772 784 800 813 823 834 SMR: males 94.0 110.7 103.6 100.3 99.2 94.8 93.3 91.0 89.1 87.4 85.5 84.0 82.5 80.9 79.7 78.7 77.1 76.0 75.1 74.3 72.9 71.9 71.3 70.3 69.2 68.5 SMR: females 112.6 115.7 105.3 100.7 98.7 97.4 95.4 93.0 91.0 89.4 87.7 86.2 84.0 82.6 80.9 79.6 78.5 77.4 76.3 75.3 74.4 73.3 72.5 71.5 70.7 69.9 SMR: persons 103.5 113.2 104.5 100.5 99.0 96.1 94.4 92.0 90.0 88.4 86.6 85.1 83.2 81.7 80.3 79.1 77.8 76.7 75.7 74.8 73.7 72.6 71.9 70.9 70.0 69.2 Expectation of life: males 79.9 78.0 79.0 79.2 79.4 80.0 80.0 80.5 80.7 81.0 81.2 81.5 81.7 82.0 82.2 82.4 82.6 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.5 83.5 83.8 84.0 84.1 Expectation of life: females 81.9 81.7 82.7 83.1 83.3 83.4 83.7 83.9 84.1 84.4 84.5 84.7 85.0 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 85.9 86.0 86.2 86.3 86.5 86.6 86.8 87.0 87.1 Expectation of life: persons 81.0 80.0 80.9 81.3 81.5 81.8 82.0 82.3 82.5 82.8 83.0 83.2 83.5 83.7 83.9 84.1 84.3 84.4 84.6 84.7 84.9 85.0 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 Deaths input **************************

In-migration from the UK Male 1,274 1,309 1,314 1,321 1,327 1,332 1,337 1,341 1,344 1,347 1,349 1,351 1,353 1,356 1,360 1,365 1,371 1,376 1,382 1,387 1,393 1,398 1,404 1,409 1,415 1,420 Female 1,344 1,390 1,394 1,398 1,401 1,404 1,406 1,408 1,408 1,407 1,407 1,406 1,407 1,410 1,414 1,419 1,424 1,430 1,437 1,443 1,449 1,456 1,463 1,468 1,474 1,480

All 2,618 2,699 2,708 2,719 2,728 2,736 2,743 2,749 2,752 2,754 2,755 2,757 2,760 2,766 2,774 2,783 2,795 2,807 2,819 2,830 2,842 2,854 2,866 2,877 2,889 2,901 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to the UK Male 1,442 1,426 1,426 1,425 1,426 1,424 1,419 1,415 1,413 1,405 1,405 1,410 1,410 1,408 1,409 1,415 1,413 1,414 1,413 1,413 1,412 1,415 1,418 1,420 1,422 1,424 Female 1,445 1,426 1,418 1,418 1,422 1,415 1,410 1,409 1,405 1,402 1,398 1,405 1,400 1,400 1,406 1,412 1,416 1,412 1,416 1,419 1,422 1,426 1,429 1,434 1,439 1,442 All 2,887 2,851 2,844 2,842 2,847 2,839 2,829 2,824 2,818 2,807 2,803 2,815 2,810 2,808 2,815 2,827 2,829 2,826 2,830 2,832 2,834 2,841 2,847 2,853 2,861 2,867 SMigR: males 35.9 35.8 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.7 35.8 35.9 36.0 35.9 35.9 36.0 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.7 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 SMigR: females 35.1 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.9 35.0 35.0 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 Migrants input **************************

In-migration from Overseas

Male 231 117 119 121 123 118 121 119 119 119 120 120 121 120 121 123 123 124 124 124 124 124 125 125 124 123

Female 270 92 93 94 98 95 95 92 93 92 93 92 93 92 93 93 94 95 95 95 97 97 96 95 95 94 All 501 208 212 215 221 213 215 211 212 211 212 213 213 213 214 216 217 218 219 219 221 220 221 220 219 217 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to Overseas Male 231 92 95 98 96 93 96 96 96 96 97 97 97 97 98 100 100 101 101 100 101 100 101 101 101 99 Female 223 68 69 70 72 70 70 68 69 68 69 69 69 69 69 69 70 71 71 72 73 73 72 72 71 70 All 454 161 164 168 168 163 165 164 165 164 165 166 166 166 167 169 170 171 172 172 174 173 173 173 171 169 SMigR: males 101.9 41.1 42.3 43.8 43.2 42.1 43.4 43.6 43.7 43.8 44.3 44.7 45.1 45.1 45.6 46.7 46.5 46.7 46.8 46.4 46.5 46.2 46.5 46.5 46.2 45.4 SMigR: females 120.3 37.1 37.9 38.4 39.4 38.7 38.6 37.8 38.4 38.2 38.7 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.8 39.8 40.6 40.7 40.9 41.2 42.1 41.7 41.1 40.8 40.3 39.8 Migrants input **************************

Migration - Net Flows UK -269 -152 -136 -124 -119 -103 -86 -75 -66 -53 -48 -59 -51 -42 -41 -44 -34 -19 -11 -2 +8 +13 +19 +24 +28 +34 Overseas +47 +48 +48 +47 +53 +49 +50 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +48 +47 +47 +47

Summary of population change

Natural change +445 +385 +417 +409 +390 +383 +373 +360 +345 +327 +310 +293 +277 +260 +244 +225 +207 +190 +172 +155 +143 +131 +117 +108 +101 +94 Net migration -222 -105 -88 -77 -66 -54 -37 -28 -19 -6 -1 -12 -4 +5 +6 +3 +13 +28 +36 +46 +56 +60 +66 +71 +76 +82 Net change +223 +281 +329 +332 +324 +330 +337 +332 +326 +321 +310 +281 +273 +265 +250 +228 +221 +218 +208 +201 +198 +192 +183 +179 +176 +175 Crude Birth Rate /000 12.78 12.89 12.87 12.68 12.54 12.44 12.39 12.25 12.12 11.99 11.86 11.75 11.63 11.53 11.44 11.36 11.28 11.21 11.15 11.11 11.07 11.06 11.06 11.07 11.09 11.11 Crude Death Rate /000 7.00 7.90 7.49 7.43 7.55 7.56 7.65 7.70 7.78 7.89 7.99 8.11 8.21 8.32 8.44 8.60 8.74 8.89 9.06 9.22 9.35 9.47 9.65 9.77 9.88 9.99 Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -2.88 -1.36 -1.14 -0.98 -0.85 -0.68 -0.46 -0.36 -0.24 -0.08 -0.01 -0.15 -0.04 0.06 0.08 0.04 0.16 0.34 0.44 0.55 0.67 0.73 0.80 0.86 0.91 0.98

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts Population at mid-year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 0-4 5,074 5,079 4,979 4,910 4,875 4,850 4,849 4,837 4,815 4,796 4,777 4,754 4,727 4,700 4,674 4,650 4,628 4,607 4,587 4,571 4,558 4,548 4,542 4,542 4,547 4,556 4,570 5-10 5,460 5,493 5,707 5,892 5,888 5,959 5,989 6,006 5,929 5,869 5,839 5,815 5,815 5,803 5,783 5,763 5,742 5,720 5,692 5,665 5,638 5,613 5,590 5,567 5,548 5,532 5,520 11-15 4,830 4,827 4,615 4,473 4,540 4,527 4,530 4,632 4,827 4,866 4,950 5,009 5,019 4,949 4,905 4,885 4,867 4,866 4,863 4,850 4,838 4,825 4,809 4,789 4,767 4,746 4,726 16-17 1,975 1,936 2,021 2,042 1,917 1,850 1,839 1,767 1,702 1,839 1,894 1,838 1,881 1,995 2,061 2,015 1,985 1,963 1,948 1,956 1,957 1,951 1,947 1,946 1,943 1,936 1,929 18-59Female, 64Male 45,726 45,410 45,187 45,011 45,007 44,929 44,783 44,627 44,478 44,260 44,062 44,007 43,858 43,736 43,588 43,518 43,452 43,352 43,225 43,062 42,890 42,804 42,680 42,633 42,642 42,645 42,688 60/65 -74 9,165 9,526 9,882 10,182 10,395 10,625 10,855 11,008 11,098 11,208 11,303 11,203 11,145 11,142 11,243 11,370 11,479 11,579 11,700 11,884 12,074 12,184 12,340 12,416 12,400 12,387 12,345 75-84 3,467 3,600 3,709 3,856 4,024 4,151 4,305 4,505 4,807 5,062 5,300 5,706 6,058 6,324 6,533 6,717 6,867 6,976 7,059 7,109 7,163 7,097 7,050 7,052 7,123 7,215 7,308 85+ 1,198 1,247 1,298 1,360 1,413 1,493 1,564 1,669 1,726 1,806 1,905 2,007 2,117 2,243 2,371 2,489 2,615 2,793 3,000 3,185 3,365 3,660 3,914 4,110 4,265 4,393 4,501 Total 76,895 77,118 77,399 77,728 78,060 78,384 78,714 79,050 79,382 79,708 80,029 80,339 80,620 80,893 81,158 81,408 81,636 81,856 82,074 82,282 82,483 82,681 82,873 83,056 83,235 83,412 83,587

Dependency ratios, mean age and sex ratio 0-15 / 16-65 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 65+ / 16-65 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.46 0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 Median age males 37.5 37.9 38.1 38.3 38.5 38.7 38.8 38.8 39.0 39.2 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.8 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.4 40.5 40.7 40.9 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.5 41.6 41.7 Median age females 39.0 39.5 39.8 40.2 40.5 40.8 40.9 41.2 41.3 41.5 41.6 41.8 42.0 42.2 42.5 42.7 42.9 43.1 43.3 43.5 43.7 43.8 44.0 44.1 44.3 44.4 44.6 Sex ratio males /100 females 96.3 96.2 96.2 96.1 95.9 95.8 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.4 95.3 95.2 95.2 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.7 94.7 94.6 94.5 94.5 94.4 94.3 94.3 94.3 94.2

Population impact of constraint Number of persons +30 -2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Households Number of Households 31,651 31,853 32,090 32,307 32,517 32,738 32,964 33,189 33,396 33,603 33,799 34,013 34,215 34,379 34,523 34,661 34,766 34,869 34,986 35,075 35,172 35,276 35,377 36,792 36,943 37,089 37,221 Change in Households over previous year -2 +202 +238 +217 +210 +221 +226 +225 +207 +208 +196 +214 +201 +164 +144 +138 +105 +103 +117 +89 +96 +105 +101 +1,414 +151 +146 +131 Number of supply units 32,264 32,470 32,712 32,933 33,147 33,372 33,602 33,831 34,043 34,254 34,454 34,672 34,877 35,045 35,192 35,333 35,439 35,544 35,664 35,755 35,853 35,959 36,063 37,504 37,659 37,808 37,942 Change in over previous year -2 +206 +242 +221 +214 +226 +230 +229 +211 +212 +200 +218 +205 +167 +147 +141 +107 +105 +120 +91 +98 +107 +103 +1,442 +154 +149 +134

Labour Force Number of Labour Force 41,300 41,211 41,175 41,135 41,112 41,106 41,075 41,020 41,046 41,024 40,928 40,835 40,762 40,719 40,623 40,524 40,449 40,384 40,335 40,266 40,186 40,155 40,108 40,077 40,056 40,029 40,040 Change in Labour Force over previous year-63 -89 -36 -40 -23 -6 -31 -55 +26 -22 -96 -93 -73 -43 -96 -99 -75 -64 -49 -70 -79 -32 -46 -32 -21 -27 +11 Number of supply units 26,350 26,788 27,581 27,553 27,538 27,472 27,389 27,291 27,246 27,169 27,105 27,044 26,996 26,967 26,903 26,838 26,788 26,745 26,713 26,667 26,614 26,593 26,562 26,541 26,528 26,510 26,517 Change in over previous year -157 +439 +792 -27 -16 -66 -83 -99 -45 -77 -64 -62 -48 -29 -63 -66 -50 -42 -33 -46 -52 -21 -31 -21 -14 -18 +7 Population Estimates and Forecasts Baseline + Partial Catch Up

Components of Population Change Tamworth Year beginning July 1st ………….. 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 Births Male 504 510 511 506 502 500 500 497 494 490 487 484 481 478 476 474 472 470 469 469 468 469 470 471 473 475

Female 480 486 487 482 478 477 477 473 470 467 464 461 458 456 454 452 450 448 447 446 446 447 448 449 451 453

All Births 984 996 998 988 981 977 977 971 964 957 951 945 940 934 930 926 922 919 916 915 915 915 918 921 924 928 TFR 1.94 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.96 1.95 1.96 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 Births input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Deaths Male 240 294 286 288 296 293 300 305 310 316 321 327 334 340 347 355 361 368 376 383 388 394 402 408 412 416 Female 299 316 295 291 295 300 303 306 309 314 320 325 329 334 339 346 354 361 369 377 384 390 398 405 412 418 All deaths 539 610 581 579 591 594 604 610 619 630 640 653 663 674 686 701 714 729 744 760 772 784 800 813 823 834 SMR: males 94.0 110.7 103.6 100.3 99.2 94.8 93.3 91.0 89.1 87.4 85.5 84.0 82.5 80.9 79.7 78.7 77.1 76.0 75.1 74.3 72.9 71.9 71.3 70.3 69.2 68.5 SMR: females 112.6 115.7 105.3 100.7 98.7 97.4 95.4 93.0 91.0 89.4 87.7 86.2 84.0 82.6 80.9 79.6 78.5 77.4 76.3 75.3 74.4 73.3 72.5 71.5 70.7 69.9 SMR: persons 103.5 113.2 104.5 100.5 99.0 96.1 94.4 92.0 90.0 88.4 86.6 85.1 83.2 81.7 80.3 79.1 77.8 76.7 75.7 74.8 73.7 72.6 71.9 70.9 70.0 69.2 Expectation of life: males 79.9 78.0 79.0 79.2 79.4 80.0 80.0 80.5 80.7 81.0 81.2 81.5 81.7 82.0 82.2 82.4 82.6 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.5 83.5 83.8 84.0 84.1 Expectation of life: females 81.9 81.7 82.7 83.1 83.3 83.4 83.7 83.9 84.1 84.4 84.5 84.7 85.0 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 85.9 86.0 86.2 86.3 86.5 86.6 86.8 87.0 87.1 Expectation of life: persons 81.0 80.0 80.9 81.3 81.5 81.8 82.0 82.3 82.5 82.8 83.0 83.2 83.5 83.7 83.9 84.1 84.3 84.4 84.6 84.7 84.9 85.0 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 Deaths input **************************

In-migration from the UK Male 1,274 1,309 1,314 1,321 1,327 1,332 1,337 1,341 1,344 1,347 1,349 1,351 1,353 1,356 1,360 1,365 1,371 1,376 1,382 1,387 1,393 1,398 1,404 1,409 1,415 1,420 Female 1,344 1,390 1,394 1,398 1,401 1,404 1,406 1,408 1,408 1,407 1,407 1,406 1,407 1,410 1,414 1,419 1,424 1,430 1,437 1,443 1,449 1,456 1,463 1,468 1,474 1,480

All 2,618 2,699 2,708 2,719 2,728 2,736 2,743 2,749 2,752 2,754 2,755 2,757 2,760 2,766 2,774 2,783 2,795 2,807 2,819 2,830 2,842 2,854 2,866 2,877 2,889 2,901 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to the UK Male 1,442 1,426 1,426 1,425 1,426 1,424 1,419 1,415 1,413 1,405 1,405 1,410 1,410 1,408 1,409 1,415 1,413 1,414 1,413 1,413 1,412 1,415 1,418 1,420 1,422 1,424 Female 1,445 1,426 1,418 1,418 1,422 1,415 1,410 1,409 1,405 1,402 1,398 1,405 1,400 1,400 1,406 1,412 1,416 1,412 1,416 1,419 1,422 1,426 1,429 1,434 1,439 1,442 All 2,887 2,851 2,844 2,842 2,847 2,839 2,829 2,824 2,818 2,807 2,803 2,815 2,810 2,808 2,815 2,827 2,829 2,826 2,830 2,832 2,834 2,841 2,847 2,853 2,861 2,867 SMigR: males 35.9 35.8 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.7 35.8 35.9 36.0 35.9 35.9 36.0 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.7 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 SMigR: females 35.1 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.9 35.0 35.0 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 Migrants input **************************

In-migration from Overseas

Male 231 117 119 121 123 118 121 119 119 119 120 120 121 120 121 123 123 124 124 124 124 124 125 125 124 123

Female 270 92 93 94 98 95 95 92 93 92 93 92 93 92 93 93 94 95 95 95 97 97 96 95 95 94 All 501 208 212 215 221 213 215 211 212 211 212 213 213 213 214 216 217 218 219 219 221 220 221 220 219 217 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to Overseas Male 231 92 95 98 96 93 96 96 96 96 97 97 97 97 98 100 100 101 101 100 101 100 101 101 101 99 Female 223 68 69 70 72 70 70 68 69 68 69 69 69 69 69 69 70 71 71 72 73 73 72 72 71 70 All 454 161 164 168 168 163 165 164 165 164 165 166 166 166 167 169 170 171 172 172 174 173 173 173 171 169 SMigR: males 101.9 41.1 42.3 43.8 43.2 42.1 43.4 43.6 43.7 43.8 44.3 44.7 45.1 45.1 45.6 46.7 46.5 46.7 46.8 46.4 46.5 46.2 46.5 46.5 46.2 45.4 SMigR: females 120.3 37.1 37.9 38.4 39.4 38.7 38.6 37.8 38.4 38.2 38.7 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.8 39.8 40.6 40.7 40.9 41.2 42.1 41.7 41.1 40.8 40.3 39.8 Migrants input **************************

Migration - Net Flows UK -269 -152 -136 -124 -119 -103 -86 -75 -66 -53 -48 -59 -51 -42 -41 -44 -34 -19 -11 -2 +8 +13 +19 +24 +28 +34 Overseas +47 +48 +48 +47 +53 +49 +50 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +48 +47 +47 +47

Summary of population change

Natural change +445 +385 +417 +409 +390 +383 +373 +360 +345 +327 +310 +293 +277 +260 +244 +225 +207 +190 +172 +155 +143 +131 +117 +108 +101 +94 Net migration -222 -105 -88 -77 -66 -54 -37 -28 -19 -6 -1 -12 -4 +5 +6 +3 +13 +28 +36 +46 +56 +60 +66 +71 +76 +82 Net change +223 +281 +329 +332 +324 +330 +337 +332 +326 +321 +310 +281 +273 +265 +250 +228 +221 +218 +208 +201 +198 +192 +183 +179 +176 +175 Crude Birth Rate /000 12.78 12.89 12.87 12.68 12.54 12.44 12.39 12.25 12.12 11.99 11.86 11.75 11.63 11.53 11.44 11.36 11.28 11.21 11.15 11.11 11.07 11.06 11.06 11.07 11.09 11.11 Crude Death Rate /000 7.00 7.90 7.49 7.43 7.55 7.56 7.65 7.70 7.78 7.89 7.99 8.11 8.21 8.32 8.44 8.60 8.74 8.89 9.06 9.22 9.35 9.47 9.65 9.77 9.88 9.99 Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -2.88 -1.36 -1.14 -0.98 -0.85 -0.68 -0.46 -0.36 -0.24 -0.08 -0.01 -0.15 -0.04 0.06 0.08 0.04 0.16 0.34 0.44 0.55 0.67 0.73 0.80 0.86 0.91 0.98

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts Population at mid-year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 0-4 5,074 5,079 4,979 4,910 4,875 4,850 4,849 4,837 4,815 4,796 4,777 4,754 4,727 4,700 4,674 4,650 4,628 4,607 4,587 4,571 4,558 4,548 4,542 4,542 4,547 4,556 4,570 5-10 5,460 5,493 5,707 5,892 5,888 5,959 5,989 6,006 5,929 5,869 5,839 5,815 5,815 5,803 5,783 5,763 5,742 5,720 5,692 5,665 5,638 5,613 5,590 5,567 5,548 5,532 5,520 11-15 4,830 4,827 4,615 4,473 4,540 4,527 4,530 4,632 4,827 4,866 4,950 5,009 5,019 4,949 4,905 4,885 4,867 4,866 4,863 4,850 4,838 4,825 4,809 4,789 4,767 4,746 4,726 16-17 1,975 1,936 2,021 2,042 1,917 1,850 1,839 1,767 1,702 1,839 1,894 1,838 1,881 1,995 2,061 2,015 1,985 1,963 1,948 1,956 1,957 1,951 1,947 1,946 1,943 1,936 1,929 18-59Female, 64Male 45,726 45,410 45,187 45,011 45,007 44,929 44,783 44,627 44,478 44,260 44,062 44,007 43,858 43,736 43,588 43,518 43,452 43,352 43,225 43,062 42,890 42,804 42,680 42,633 42,642 42,645 42,688 60/65 -74 9,165 9,526 9,882 10,182 10,395 10,625 10,855 11,008 11,098 11,208 11,303 11,203 11,145 11,142 11,243 11,370 11,479 11,579 11,700 11,884 12,074 12,184 12,340 12,416 12,400 12,387 12,345 75-84 3,467 3,600 3,709 3,856 4,024 4,151 4,305 4,505 4,807 5,062 5,300 5,706 6,058 6,324 6,533 6,717 6,867 6,976 7,059 7,109 7,163 7,097 7,050 7,052 7,123 7,215 7,308 85+ 1,198 1,247 1,298 1,360 1,413 1,493 1,564 1,669 1,726 1,806 1,905 2,007 2,117 2,243 2,371 2,489 2,615 2,793 3,000 3,185 3,365 3,660 3,914 4,110 4,265 4,393 4,501 Total 76,895 77,118 77,399 77,728 78,060 78,384 78,714 79,050 79,382 79,708 80,029 80,339 80,620 80,893 81,158 81,408 81,636 81,856 82,074 82,282 82,483 82,681 82,873 83,056 83,235 83,412 83,587

Dependency ratios, mean age and sex ratio 0-15 / 16-65 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 65+ / 16-65 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.46 0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 Median age males 37.5 37.9 38.1 38.3 38.5 38.7 38.8 38.8 39.0 39.2 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.8 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.4 40.5 40.7 40.9 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.5 41.6 41.7 Median age females 39.0 39.5 39.8 40.2 40.5 40.8 40.9 41.2 41.3 41.5 41.6 41.8 42.0 42.2 42.5 42.7 42.9 43.1 43.3 43.5 43.7 43.8 44.0 44.1 44.3 44.4 44.6 Sex ratio males /100 females 96.3 96.2 96.2 96.1 95.9 95.8 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.4 95.3 95.2 95.2 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.7 94.7 94.6 94.5 94.5 94.4 94.3 94.3 94.3 94.2

Population impact of constraint Number of persons +30 -2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Households Number of Households 31,651 31,853 32,090 32,307 32,517 32,738 32,964 33,189 33,396 33,603 33,799 34,100 34,382 34,623 34,844 35,054 35,226 35,395 35,577 35,742 35,906 36,060 36,227 36,386 36,529 36,670 36,796 Change in Households over previous year -2 +202 +238 +217 +210 +221 +226 +225 +207 +208 +196 +301 +282 +241 +221 +210 +172 +169 +183 +165 +164 +154 +167 +159 +143 +141 +126 Number of supply units 32,264 32,470 32,712 32,933 33,147 33,372 33,602 33,831 34,043 34,254 34,454 34,761 35,048 35,294 35,519 35,733 35,908 36,080 36,266 36,434 36,602 36,759 36,929 37,091 37,236 37,380 37,509 Change in over previous year -2 +206 +242 +221 +214 +226 +230 +229 +211 +212 +200 +307 +288 +245 +225 +214 +176 +172 +186 +168 +168 +157 +170 +162 +146 +144 +129

Labour Force Number of Labour Force 41,300 41,211 41,175 41,135 41,112 41,106 41,075 41,020 41,046 41,024 40,928 40,835 40,762 40,719 40,623 40,524 40,449 40,384 40,335 40,266 40,186 40,155 40,108 40,077 40,056 40,029 40,040 Change in Labour Force over previous year-63 -89 -36 -40 -23 -6 -31 -55 +26 -22 -96 -93 -73 -43 -96 -99 -75 -64 -49 -70 -79 -32 -46 -32 -21 -27 +11 Number of supply units 26,350 26,788 27,581 27,553 27,538 27,472 27,389 27,291 27,246 27,169 27,105 27,044 26,996 26,967 26,903 26,838 26,788 26,745 26,713 26,667 26,614 26,593 26,562 26,541 26,528 26,510 26,517 Change in over previous year -157 +439 +792 -27 -16 -66 -83 -99 -45 -77 -64 -62 -48 -29 -63 -66 -50 -42 -33 -46 -52 -21 -31 -21 -14 -18 +7 Population Estimates and Forecasts Baseline + Catch Up

Components of Population Change Tamworth Year beginning July 1st ………….. 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 Births Male 504 510 511 506 502 500 500 497 494 490 487 484 481 478 476 474 472 470 469 469 468 469 470 471 473 475

Female 480 486 487 482 478 477 477 473 470 467 464 461 458 456 454 452 450 448 447 446 446 447 448 449 451 453

All Births 984 996 998 988 981 977 977 971 964 957 951 945 940 934 930 926 922 919 916 915 915 915 918 921 924 928 TFR 1.94 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.96 1.95 1.96 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94 Births input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Deaths Male 240 294 286 288 296 293 300 305 310 316 321 327 334 340 347 355 361 368 376 383 388 394 402 408 412 416 Female 299 316 295 291 295 300 303 306 309 314 320 325 329 334 339 346 354 361 369 377 384 390 398 405 412 418 All deaths 539 610 581 579 591 594 604 610 619 630 640 653 663 674 686 701 714 729 744 760 772 784 800 813 823 834 SMR: males 94.0 110.7 103.6 100.3 99.2 94.8 93.3 91.0 89.1 87.4 85.5 84.0 82.5 80.9 79.7 78.7 77.1 76.0 75.1 74.3 72.9 71.9 71.3 70.3 69.2 68.5 SMR: females 112.6 115.7 105.3 100.7 98.7 97.4 95.4 93.0 91.0 89.4 87.7 86.2 84.0 82.6 80.9 79.6 78.5 77.4 76.3 75.3 74.4 73.3 72.5 71.5 70.7 69.9 SMR: persons 103.5 113.2 104.5 100.5 99.0 96.1 94.4 92.0 90.0 88.4 86.6 85.1 83.2 81.7 80.3 79.1 77.8 76.7 75.7 74.8 73.7 72.6 71.9 70.9 70.0 69.2 Expectation of life: males 79.9 78.0 79.0 79.2 79.4 80.0 80.0 80.5 80.7 81.0 81.2 81.5 81.7 82.0 82.2 82.4 82.6 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.5 83.5 83.8 84.0 84.1 Expectation of life: females 81.9 81.7 82.7 83.1 83.3 83.4 83.7 83.9 84.1 84.4 84.5 84.7 85.0 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 85.9 86.0 86.2 86.3 86.5 86.6 86.8 87.0 87.1 Expectation of life: persons 81.0 80.0 80.9 81.3 81.5 81.8 82.0 82.3 82.5 82.8 83.0 83.2 83.5 83.7 83.9 84.1 84.3 84.4 84.6 84.7 84.9 85.0 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 Deaths input **************************

In-migration from the UK Male 1,274 1,309 1,314 1,321 1,327 1,332 1,337 1,341 1,344 1,347 1,349 1,351 1,353 1,356 1,360 1,365 1,371 1,376 1,382 1,387 1,393 1,398 1,404 1,409 1,415 1,420 Female 1,344 1,390 1,394 1,398 1,401 1,404 1,406 1,408 1,408 1,407 1,407 1,406 1,407 1,410 1,414 1,419 1,424 1,430 1,437 1,443 1,449 1,456 1,463 1,468 1,474 1,480

All 2,618 2,699 2,708 2,719 2,728 2,736 2,743 2,749 2,752 2,754 2,755 2,757 2,760 2,766 2,774 2,783 2,795 2,807 2,819 2,830 2,842 2,854 2,866 2,877 2,889 2,901 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to the UK Male 1,442 1,426 1,426 1,425 1,426 1,424 1,419 1,415 1,413 1,405 1,405 1,410 1,410 1,408 1,409 1,415 1,413 1,414 1,413 1,413 1,412 1,415 1,418 1,420 1,422 1,424 Female 1,445 1,426 1,418 1,418 1,422 1,415 1,410 1,409 1,405 1,402 1,398 1,405 1,400 1,400 1,406 1,412 1,416 1,412 1,416 1,419 1,422 1,426 1,429 1,434 1,439 1,442 All 2,887 2,851 2,844 2,842 2,847 2,839 2,829 2,824 2,818 2,807 2,803 2,815 2,810 2,808 2,815 2,827 2,829 2,826 2,830 2,832 2,834 2,841 2,847 2,853 2,861 2,867 SMigR: males 35.9 35.8 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.7 35.8 35.9 36.0 35.9 35.9 36.0 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.7 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 SMigR: females 35.1 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.9 35.0 35.0 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 Migrants input **************************

In-migration from Overseas

Male 231 117 119 121 123 118 121 119 119 119 120 120 121 120 121 123 123 124 124 124 124 124 125 125 124 123

Female 270 92 93 94 98 95 95 92 93 92 93 92 93 92 93 93 94 95 95 95 97 97 96 95 95 94 All 501 208 212 215 221 213 215 211 212 211 212 213 213 213 214 216 217 218 219 219 221 220 221 220 219 217 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to Overseas Male 231 92 95 98 96 93 96 96 96 96 97 97 97 97 98 100 100 101 101 100 101 100 101 101 101 99 Female 223 68 69 70 72 70 70 68 69 68 69 69 69 69 69 69 70 71 71 72 73 73 72 72 71 70 All 454 161 164 168 168 163 165 164 165 164 165 166 166 166 167 169 170 171 172 172 174 173 173 173 171 169 SMigR: males 101.9 41.1 42.3 43.8 43.2 42.1 43.4 43.6 43.7 43.8 44.3 44.7 45.1 45.1 45.6 46.7 46.5 46.7 46.8 46.4 46.5 46.2 46.5 46.5 46.2 45.4 SMigR: females 120.3 37.1 37.9 38.4 39.4 38.7 38.6 37.8 38.4 38.2 38.7 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.8 39.8 40.6 40.7 40.9 41.2 42.1 41.7 41.1 40.8 40.3 39.8 Migrants input **************************

Migration - Net Flows UK -269 -152 -136 -124 -119 -103 -86 -75 -66 -53 -48 -59 -51 -42 -41 -44 -34 -19 -11 -2 +8 +13 +19 +24 +28 +34 Overseas +47 +48 +48 +47 +53 +49 +50 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +47 +48 +47 +47 +47

Summary of population change

Natural change +445 +385 +417 +409 +390 +383 +373 +360 +345 +327 +310 +293 +277 +260 +244 +225 +207 +190 +172 +155 +143 +131 +117 +108 +101 +94 Net migration -222 -105 -88 -77 -66 -54 -37 -28 -19 -6 -1 -12 -4 +5 +6 +3 +13 +28 +36 +46 +56 +60 +66 +71 +76 +82 Net change +223 +281 +329 +332 +324 +330 +337 +332 +326 +321 +310 +281 +273 +265 +250 +228 +221 +218 +208 +201 +198 +192 +183 +179 +176 +175 Crude Birth Rate /000 12.78 12.89 12.87 12.68 12.54 12.44 12.39 12.25 12.12 11.99 11.86 11.75 11.63 11.53 11.44 11.36 11.28 11.21 11.15 11.11 11.07 11.06 11.06 11.07 11.09 11.11 Crude Death Rate /000 7.00 7.90 7.49 7.43 7.55 7.56 7.65 7.70 7.78 7.89 7.99 8.11 8.21 8.32 8.44 8.60 8.74 8.89 9.06 9.22 9.35 9.47 9.65 9.77 9.88 9.99 Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -2.88 -1.36 -1.14 -0.98 -0.85 -0.68 -0.46 -0.36 -0.24 -0.08 -0.01 -0.15 -0.04 0.06 0.08 0.04 0.16 0.34 0.44 0.55 0.67 0.73 0.80 0.86 0.91 0.98

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts Population at mid-year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 0-4 5,074 5,079 4,979 4,910 4,875 4,850 4,849 4,837 4,815 4,796 4,777 4,754 4,727 4,700 4,674 4,650 4,628 4,607 4,587 4,571 4,558 4,548 4,542 4,542 4,547 4,556 4,570 5-10 5,460 5,493 5,707 5,892 5,888 5,959 5,989 6,006 5,929 5,869 5,839 5,815 5,815 5,803 5,783 5,763 5,742 5,720 5,692 5,665 5,638 5,613 5,590 5,567 5,548 5,532 5,520 11-15 4,830 4,827 4,615 4,473 4,540 4,527 4,530 4,632 4,827 4,866 4,950 5,009 5,019 4,949 4,905 4,885 4,867 4,866 4,863 4,850 4,838 4,825 4,809 4,789 4,767 4,746 4,726 16-17 1,975 1,936 2,021 2,042 1,917 1,850 1,839 1,767 1,702 1,839 1,894 1,838 1,881 1,995 2,061 2,015 1,985 1,963 1,948 1,956 1,957 1,951 1,947 1,946 1,943 1,936 1,929 18-59Female, 64Male 45,726 45,410 45,187 45,011 45,007 44,929 44,783 44,627 44,478 44,260 44,062 44,007 43,858 43,736 43,588 43,518 43,452 43,352 43,225 43,062 42,890 42,804 42,680 42,633 42,642 42,645 42,688 60/65 -74 9,165 9,526 9,882 10,182 10,395 10,625 10,855 11,008 11,098 11,208 11,303 11,203 11,145 11,142 11,243 11,370 11,479 11,579 11,700 11,884 12,074 12,184 12,340 12,416 12,400 12,387 12,345 75-84 3,467 3,600 3,709 3,856 4,024 4,151 4,305 4,505 4,807 5,062 5,300 5,706 6,058 6,324 6,533 6,717 6,867 6,976 7,059 7,109 7,163 7,097 7,050 7,052 7,123 7,215 7,308 85+ 1,198 1,247 1,298 1,360 1,413 1,493 1,564 1,669 1,726 1,806 1,905 2,007 2,117 2,243 2,371 2,489 2,615 2,793 3,000 3,185 3,365 3,660 3,914 4,110 4,265 4,393 4,501 Total 76,895 77,118 77,399 77,728 78,060 78,384 78,714 79,050 79,382 79,708 80,029 80,339 80,620 80,893 81,158 81,408 81,636 81,856 82,074 82,282 82,483 82,681 82,873 83,056 83,235 83,412 83,587

Dependency ratios, mean age and sex ratio 0-15 / 16-65 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 65+ / 16-65 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.46 0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 Median age males 37.5 37.9 38.1 38.3 38.5 38.7 38.8 38.8 39.0 39.2 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.8 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.4 40.5 40.7 40.9 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.5 41.6 41.7 Median age females 39.0 39.5 39.8 40.2 40.5 40.8 40.9 41.2 41.3 41.5 41.6 41.8 42.0 42.2 42.5 42.7 42.9 43.1 43.3 43.5 43.7 43.8 44.0 44.1 44.3 44.4 44.6 Sex ratio males /100 females 96.3 96.2 96.2 96.1 95.9 95.8 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.4 95.3 95.2 95.2 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.7 94.7 94.6 94.5 94.5 94.4 94.3 94.3 94.3 94.2

Population impact of constraint Number of persons +30 -2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1 +1

Households Number of Households 31,651 31,853 32,090 32,307 32,517 32,738 32,964 33,189 33,396 33,603 33,799 34,185 34,545 34,860 35,154 35,434 35,672 35,904 36,150 36,389 36,627 36,837 37,076 37,242 37,388 37,544 37,683 Change in Households over previous year -2 +202 +238 +217 +210 +221 +226 +225 +207 +208 +196 +385 +360 +314 +295 +279 +238 +232 +246 +239 +238 +210 +239 +165 +147 +155 +139 Number of supply units 32,264 32,470 32,712 32,933 33,147 33,372 33,602 33,831 34,043 34,254 34,454 34,847 35,214 35,535 35,835 36,120 36,363 36,600 36,851 37,094 37,336 37,550 37,795 37,963 38,112 38,271 38,413 Change in over previous year -2 +206 +242 +221 +214 +226 +230 +229 +211 +212 +200 +393 +367 +321 +300 +285 +243 +237 +251 +244 +242 +214 +244 +169 +149 +158 +142

Labour Force Number of Labour Force 41,300 41,211 41,175 41,135 41,112 41,106 41,075 41,020 41,046 41,024 40,928 40,835 40,762 40,719 40,623 40,524 40,449 40,384 40,335 40,266 40,186 40,155 40,108 40,077 40,056 40,029 40,040 Change in Labour Force over previous year-63 -89 -36 -40 -23 -6 -31 -55 +26 -22 -96 -93 -73 -43 -96 -99 -75 -64 -49 -70 -79 -32 -46 -32 -21 -27 +11 Number of supply units 26,350 26,788 27,581 27,553 27,538 27,472 27,389 27,291 27,246 27,169 27,105 27,044 26,996 26,967 26,903 26,838 26,788 26,745 26,713 26,667 26,614 26,593 26,562 26,541 26,528 26,510 26,517 Change in over previous year -157 +439 +792 -27 -16 -66 -83 -99 -45 -77 -64 -62 -48 -29 -63 -66 -50 -42 -33 -46 -52 -21 -31 -21 -14 -18 +7 Population Estimates and Forecasts Short Term Migration

Components of Population Change Tamworth Year beginning July 1st ………….. 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 Births Male 500 506 508 502 497 493 491 485 479 473 468 463 458 454 452 449 446 444 442 441 439 439 439 439 438 438

Female 476 482 484 478 473 470 467 462 457 451 445 441 437 433 430 427 425 423 421 420 418 418 418 418 417 417

All Births 976 989 993 980 970 963 958 947 936 924 913 904 895 887 882 876 871 866 863 860 858 856 856 856 856 855 TFR 1.93 1.96 1.97 1.95 1.94 1.93 1.93 1.92 1.91 1.90 1.90 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.92 1.92 1.92 Births input

Deaths Male 264 294 284 284 291 288 294 298 303 308 312 318 324 329 336 343 348 355 362 369 374 379 387 392 395 400 Female 275 316 295 292 295 301 304 306 309 314 319 324 327 332 336 342 348 355 361 368 375 381 388 394 400 405 All deaths 539 610 579 576 586 589 599 604 612 622 631 642 651 661 672 685 697 709 724 738 749 760 775 786 795 805 SMR: males 103.5 110.7 103.6 100.3 99.2 94.8 93.3 91.0 89.1 87.4 85.5 84.0 82.5 80.9 79.7 78.7 77.1 76.0 75.1 74.3 72.9 71.9 71.3 70.3 69.2 68.5 SMR: females 103.5 115.7 105.3 100.7 98.7 97.4 95.4 93.0 91.0 89.4 87.7 86.2 84.0 82.6 80.9 79.6 78.5 77.4 76.3 75.3 74.4 73.3 72.5 71.5 70.7 69.9 SMR: persons 103.5 113.2 104.5 100.5 99.0 96.1 94.4 92.0 90.0 88.4 86.6 85.1 83.2 81.7 80.3 79.1 77.8 76.7 75.7 74.8 73.7 72.6 71.9 70.9 70.0 69.2 Expectation of life: males 78.8 77.9 78.9 79.1 79.3 79.9 80.0 80.3 80.6 80.9 81.2 81.4 81.7 81.9 82.1 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.5 83.6 83.9 84.0 84.1 Expectation of life: females 82.8 81.6 82.7 83.1 83.4 83.5 83.7 84.0 84.2 84.5 84.7 84.9 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 85.9 86.1 86.2 86.4 86.5 86.7 86.8 87.0 87.1 87.2 Expectation of life: persons 81.0 79.9 80.9 81.3 81.5 81.9 82.1 82.4 82.6 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.6 83.8 84.0 84.2 84.4 84.5 84.7 84.9 85.1 85.2 85.3 85.5 85.7 85.8 Deaths input

In-migration from the UK Male 1,299 1,286 1,287 1,288 1,290 1,291 1,292 1,294 1,295 1,297 1,298 1,299 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,299 1,299 1,299 1,299 1,299 Female 1,319 1,366 1,365 1,364 1,362 1,361 1,360 1,358 1,357 1,355 1,354 1,353 1,352 1,352 1,352 1,352 1,352 1,352 1,352 1,352 1,352 1,353 1,353 1,353 1,353 1,353

All 2,618 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 2,652 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to the UK Male 1,425 1,425 1,429 1,428 1,427 1,429 1,430 1,428 1,429 1,427 1,429 1,428 1,430 1,429 1,427 1,427 1,423 1,426 1,424 1,422 1,420 1,419 1,419 1,418 1,417 1,416 Female 1,462 1,425 1,421 1,422 1,423 1,421 1,420 1,422 1,421 1,423 1,421 1,422 1,420 1,421 1,423 1,423 1,427 1,424 1,426 1,428 1,430 1,431 1,431 1,432 1,433 1,434 All 2,887 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 SMigR: males 35.5 35.8 36.0 36.0 35.9 36.0 36.1 36.2 36.3 36.4 36.6 36.7 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.9 37.0 36.9 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.1 37.1 37.2 SMigR: females 35.5 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.9 35.0 35.2 35.4 35.7 35.8 36.0 36.1 36.2 36.3 36.2 36.3 36.2 36.3 36.3 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.5 36.6 36.7 Migrants input **************************

In-migration from Overseas

Male 261 90 91 90 91 91 91 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

Female 316 76 75 76 75 75 75 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 All 577 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to Overseas Male 275 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 Female 247 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 All 522 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 SMigR: males 121.1 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 SMigR: females 133.4 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 Migrants input **************************

Migration - Net Flows UK -269 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 -198 Overseas +55 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60 +60

Summary of population change

Natural change +437 +378 +413 +404 +384 +374 +359 +342 +324 +303 +282 +262 +244 +226 +210 +191 +174 +157 +139 +122 +109 +97 +81 +70 +60 +50 Net migration -214 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 -138 Net change +223 +240 +275 +266 +246 +236 +221 +204 +186 +165 +144 +124 +106 +88 +72 +53 +36 +19 +1 -16 -29 -41 -57 -68 -78 -88 Crude Birth Rate /000 12.67 12.80 12.81 12.60 12.43 12.30 12.20 12.03 11.86 11.69 11.52 11.39 11.26 11.15 11.07 10.99 10.92 10.86 10.81 10.78 10.75 10.74 10.75 10.75 10.76 10.76 Crude Death Rate /000 7.00 7.90 7.47 7.41 7.51 7.53 7.63 7.68 7.76 7.86 7.97 8.09 8.19 8.30 8.43 8.59 8.74 8.89 9.07 9.25 9.39 9.53 9.72 9.87 10.00 10.13 Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -2.78 -1.79 -1.78 -1.77 -1.77 -1.76 -1.76 -1.75 -1.75 -1.75 -1.74 -1.74 -1.74 -1.73 -1.73 -1.73 -1.73 -1.73 -1.73 -1.73 -1.73 -1.73 -1.73 -1.73 -1.73 -1.74

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts Population at mid-year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 0-4 5,074 5,079 4,969 4,895 4,851 4,822 4,811 4,783 4,741 4,699 4,654 4,605 4,555 4,507 4,461 4,420 4,386 4,354 4,325 4,299 4,277 4,257 4,242 4,231 4,224 4,219 4,216 5-10 5,460 5,493 5,705 5,882 5,870 5,928 5,947 5,948 5,856 5,783 5,735 5,698 5,677 5,643 5,595 5,546 5,496 5,443 5,387 5,334 5,284 5,238 5,196 5,158 5,124 5,095 5,069 11-15 4,830 4,827 4,595 4,450 4,514 4,496 4,492 4,588 4,777 4,808 4,883 4,926 4,921 4,835 4,780 4,745 4,716 4,700 4,676 4,640 4,603 4,563 4,519 4,473 4,427 4,384 4,344 16-17 1,975 1,936 1,984 1,970 1,830 1,759 1,746 1,675 1,609 1,739 1,786 1,730 1,769 1,880 1,937 1,885 1,846 1,815 1,799 1,802 1,797 1,783 1,770 1,759 1,745 1,727 1,709 18-59Female, 64Male 45,726 45,410 45,229 45,056 45,029 44,903 44,701 44,477 44,259 43,967 43,687 43,536 43,306 43,095 42,854 42,692 42,530 42,327 42,079 41,797 41,498 41,270 41,004 40,807 40,658 40,500 40,373 60/65 -74 9,165 9,526 9,882 10,188 10,402 10,637 10,875 11,030 11,118 11,231 11,325 11,227 11,171 11,168 11,264 11,385 11,485 11,582 11,692 11,857 12,025 12,118 12,255 12,314 12,279 12,250 12,192 75-84 3,467 3,600 3,703 3,846 4,009 4,127 4,271 4,462 4,755 5,001 5,233 5,634 5,982 6,247 6,455 6,639 6,794 6,905 6,993 7,054 7,114 7,057 7,015 7,015 7,084 7,168 7,247 85+ 1,198 1,247 1,291 1,346 1,394 1,474 1,539 1,641 1,691 1,766 1,855 1,946 2,044 2,158 2,275 2,381 2,492 2,656 2,848 3,018 3,189 3,471 3,713 3,902 4,049 4,170 4,274 Total 76,895 77,118 77,358 77,634 77,900 78,146 78,381 78,603 78,807 78,993 79,158 79,302 79,426 79,532 79,620 79,692 79,745 79,781 79,800 79,801 79,785 79,756 79,715 79,658 79,591 79,513 79,425

Dependency ratios, mean age and sex ratio 0-15 / 16-65 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 65+ / 16-65 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.48 0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79 Median age males 37.5 37.9 38.1 38.3 38.5 38.7 38.8 38.9 39.1 39.3 39.5 39.6 39.8 40.0 40.2 40.4 40.6 40.7 40.9 41.1 41.3 41.4 41.6 41.8 41.9 42.1 42.2 Median age females 39.0 39.5 39.9 40.2 40.6 40.8 41.0 41.3 41.5 41.7 41.8 42.1 42.3 42.6 42.9 43.2 43.4 43.6 43.9 44.1 44.4 44.6 44.8 45.1 45.2 45.4 45.6 Sex ratio males /100 females 96.3 96.2 96.2 96.1 96.0 95.8 95.8 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.4 95.4 95.3 95.2 95.1 95.0 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.8 94.7 94.6 94.6 94.5 94.5 94.5 94.4

Population impact of constraint Number of persons +37 +6

Households Number of Households 31,651 31,853 32,070 32,258 32,431 32,602 32,776 32,959 33,139 33,317 33,475 33,726 33,972 34,210 34,390 34,582 34,759 34,920 35,084 35,210 35,322 35,428 35,530 35,608 35,668 35,717 35,748 Change in Households over previous year -2 +202 +218 +188 +173 +172 +174 +183 +180 +178 +158 +251 +246 +238 +181 +191 +177 +162 +163 +126 +112 +106 +102 +78 +60 +49 +31 Number of supply units 32,264 32,470 32,691 32,883 33,059 33,234 33,411 33,597 33,781 33,962 34,123 34,379 34,630 34,872 35,057 35,252 35,432 35,597 35,763 35,892 36,006 36,114 36,218 36,298 36,358 36,409 36,440 Change in over previous year -2 +206 +222 +191 +176 +175 +177 +186 +184 +181 +161 +256 +251 +243 +184 +195 +180 +165 +166 +129 +114 +109 +104 +80 +61 +50 +32

Labour Force Number of Labour Force 41,300 41,211 41,158 41,116 41,083 41,049 40,976 40,864 40,829 40,738 40,566 40,394 40,250 40,126 39,948 39,762 39,602 39,445 39,291 39,113 38,918 38,760 38,582 38,413 38,250 38,077 37,932 Change in Labour Force over previous year-63 -89 -53 -41 -34 -34 -73 -112 -35 -91 -172 -172 -144 -123 -179 -185 -160 -158 -153 -178 -196 -158 -178 -169 -163 -174 -145 Number of supply units 26,350 26,788 27,569 27,541 27,519 27,434 27,323 27,187 27,102 26,979 26,865 26,752 26,656 26,574 26,456 26,333 26,227 26,123 26,021 25,903 25,774 25,669 25,551 25,440 25,332 25,217 25,121 Change in over previous year -157 +439 +781 -28 -23 -85 -111 -136 -85 -122 -114 -114 -96 -82 -118 -123 -106 -104 -101 -118 -130 -105 -118 -112 -108 -115 -96 Population Estimates and Forecasts Long Term Migration

Components of Population Change Tamworth Year beginning July 1st ………….. 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 Births Male 500 506 508 501 496 492 489 484 478 472 466 461 456 452 449 446 443 441 439 437 436 435 435 435 434 434

Female 476 482 484 478 473 469 466 460 455 449 443 439 434 430 428 425 422 420 418 416 415 414 414 414 414 413

All Births 976 988 992 979 969 961 956 944 933 921 909 900 891 882 877 871 865 860 856 854 851 849 849 849 848 847 TFR 1.93 1.96 1.97 1.95 1.94 1.93 1.93 1.92 1.91 1.90 1.90 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.92 1.92 1.92 Births input

Deaths Male 264 294 284 284 291 288 294 298 302 308 312 318 324 329 336 343 348 354 362 369 373 378 386 391 394 399 Female 275 316 295 292 295 301 304 306 309 314 319 324 327 331 336 341 348 354 361 368 375 380 387 393 399 405 All deaths 539 610 579 576 586 589 598 604 612 622 631 642 651 660 671 684 696 709 723 737 748 758 773 784 794 803 SMR: males 103.5 110.7 103.6 100.3 99.2 94.8 93.3 91.0 89.1 87.4 85.5 84.0 82.5 80.9 79.7 78.7 77.1 76.0 75.1 74.3 72.9 71.9 71.3 70.3 69.2 68.5 SMR: females 103.5 115.7 105.3 100.7 98.7 97.4 95.4 93.0 91.0 89.4 87.7 86.2 84.0 82.6 80.9 79.6 78.5 77.4 76.3 75.3 74.4 73.3 72.5 71.5 70.7 69.9 SMR: persons 103.5 113.2 104.5 100.5 99.0 96.1 94.4 92.0 90.0 88.4 86.6 85.1 83.2 81.7 80.3 79.1 77.8 76.7 75.7 74.8 73.7 72.6 71.9 70.9 70.0 69.2 Expectation of life: males 78.8 77.9 78.9 79.1 79.3 79.9 80.0 80.3 80.6 80.9 81.2 81.4 81.7 81.9 82.1 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.5 83.6 83.9 84.0 84.1 Expectation of life: females 82.8 81.6 82.7 83.1 83.4 83.5 83.7 84.0 84.2 84.5 84.7 84.9 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 85.9 86.1 86.2 86.4 86.5 86.7 86.8 87.0 87.1 87.2 Expectation of life: persons 81.0 79.9 80.9 81.3 81.5 81.9 82.1 82.4 82.6 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.6 83.8 84.0 84.2 84.4 84.5 84.7 84.9 85.1 85.2 85.3 85.5 85.7 85.8 Deaths input

In-migration from the UK Male 1,299 1,309 1,310 1,312 1,313 1,314 1,316 1,317 1,319 1,320 1,321 1,323 1,323 1,324 1,324 1,324 1,324 1,324 1,323 1,323 1,323 1,322 1,322 1,322 1,322 1,322 Female 1,319 1,391 1,390 1,388 1,387 1,386 1,384 1,383 1,381 1,380 1,379 1,377 1,377 1,376 1,376 1,376 1,376 1,376 1,377 1,377 1,377 1,378 1,378 1,378 1,378 1,378

All 2,618 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to the UK Male 1,425 1,455 1,459 1,458 1,457 1,459 1,460 1,458 1,459 1,457 1,459 1,458 1,460 1,459 1,457 1,457 1,453 1,456 1,453 1,452 1,450 1,449 1,449 1,448 1,447 1,446 Female 1,462 1,455 1,451 1,452 1,453 1,451 1,450 1,452 1,451 1,453 1,451 1,452 1,450 1,451 1,453 1,453 1,457 1,454 1,457 1,458 1,460 1,461 1,461 1,462 1,463 1,464 All 2,887 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 SMigR: males 35.5 36.6 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.8 36.9 37.0 37.2 37.3 37.5 37.6 37.8 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.1 38.1 38.2 38.2 38.3 SMigR: females 35.5 35.5 35.4 35.5 35.6 35.7 35.8 36.1 36.2 36.5 36.7 36.9 37.0 37.1 37.2 37.2 37.2 37.2 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.6 37.7 Migrants input **************************

In-migration from Overseas

Male 261 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

Female 316 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 All 577 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to Overseas Male 275 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 Female 247 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 All 522 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 SMigR: males 121.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.8 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.2 31.3 31.3 31.4 31.4 31.5 31.6 31.7 31.7 SMigR: females 133.4 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 Migrants input **************************

Migration - Net Flows UK -269 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 -210 Overseas +55 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52 +52

Summary of population change

Natural change +437 +378 +413 +403 +382 +372 +357 +340 +321 +299 +278 +258 +240 +222 +205 +186 +169 +152 +133 +117 +103 +91 +76 +64 +54 +44 Net migration -214 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 -158 Net change +223 +220 +255 +245 +224 +214 +199 +182 +163 +141 +120 +100 +82 +64 +47 +28 +11 -6 -25 -41 -55 -67 -82 -94 -104 -114 Crude Birth Rate /000 12.67 12.80 12.81 12.60 12.43 12.29 12.19 12.02 11.85 11.67 11.50 11.37 11.24 11.13 11.05 10.97 10.89 10.83 10.78 10.76 10.73 10.72 10.72 10.73 10.73 10.74 Crude Death Rate /000 7.00 7.90 7.48 7.41 7.52 7.54 7.64 7.69 7.77 7.88 7.98 8.11 8.21 8.32 8.46 8.62 8.77 8.92 9.10 9.28 9.43 9.57 9.77 9.92 10.05 10.18 Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -2.78 -2.05 -2.04 -2.03 -2.03 -2.02 -2.02 -2.01 -2.01 -2.00 -2.00 -2.00 -1.99 -1.99 -1.99 -1.99 -1.99 -1.99 -1.99 -1.99 -1.99 -1.99 -2.00 -2.00 -2.00 -2.00

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts Population at mid-year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 0-4 5,074 5,079 4,968 4,892 4,846 4,815 4,801 4,772 4,728 4,683 4,636 4,586 4,534 4,485 4,437 4,395 4,358 4,325 4,294 4,268 4,244 4,223 4,206 4,194 4,185 4,179 4,175 5-10 5,460 5,493 5,704 5,880 5,867 5,924 5,942 5,941 5,847 5,772 5,722 5,683 5,659 5,622 5,572 5,521 5,468 5,414 5,356 5,301 5,249 5,201 5,157 5,117 5,082 5,051 5,023 11-15 4,830 4,827 4,594 4,449 4,512 4,493 4,488 4,584 4,772 4,802 4,876 4,917 4,912 4,824 4,768 4,731 4,701 4,682 4,657 4,619 4,579 4,537 4,492 4,444 4,397 4,352 4,311 16-17 1,975 1,936 1,983 1,968 1,827 1,756 1,742 1,671 1,606 1,735 1,782 1,725 1,764 1,874 1,930 1,878 1,839 1,808 1,791 1,793 1,788 1,773 1,759 1,747 1,732 1,714 1,695 18-59Female, 64Male 45,726 45,410 45,214 45,024 44,982 44,839 44,620 44,380 44,147 43,839 43,542 43,375 43,129 42,902 42,646 42,466 42,288 42,069 41,805 41,507 41,192 40,949 40,667 40,455 40,290 40,117 39,973 60/65 -74 9,165 9,526 9,882 10,187 10,400 10,634 10,871 11,025 11,112 11,224 11,316 11,217 11,160 11,156 11,251 11,369 11,469 11,564 11,673 11,836 12,001 12,091 12,225 12,280 12,243 12,210 12,149 75-84 3,467 3,600 3,703 3,847 4,009 4,127 4,271 4,461 4,754 5,000 5,231 5,632 5,979 6,243 6,451 6,634 6,788 6,898 6,986 7,045 7,105 7,047 7,005 7,004 7,071 7,154 7,233 85+ 1,198 1,247 1,291 1,346 1,394 1,474 1,539 1,641 1,692 1,766 1,856 1,947 2,045 2,158 2,275 2,381 2,492 2,655 2,846 3,016 3,186 3,468 3,710 3,898 4,044 4,164 4,268 Total 76,895 77,118 77,338 77,593 77,838 78,062 78,276 78,475 78,657 78,820 78,962 79,082 79,182 79,264 79,328 79,376 79,404 79,415 79,409 79,384 79,343 79,288 79,221 79,138 79,045 78,941 78,827

Dependency ratios, mean age and sex ratio 0-15 / 16-65 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 65+ / 16-65 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79 Median age males 37.5 37.9 38.1 38.3 38.5 38.7 38.8 38.9 39.1 39.3 39.5 39.7 39.9 40.1 40.2 40.5 40.6 40.8 41.0 41.2 41.3 41.5 41.7 41.9 42.0 42.1 42.3 Median age females 39.0 39.5 39.9 40.2 40.6 40.8 41.1 41.3 41.5 41.7 41.9 42.1 42.4 42.7 42.9 43.2 43.5 43.7 44.0 44.2 44.5 44.7 44.9 45.2 45.3 45.5 45.7 Sex ratio males /100 females 96.3 96.2 96.2 96.0 95.9 95.8 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.4 95.4 95.3 95.2 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.9 94.8 94.7 94.6 94.6 94.5 94.5 94.4 94.3 94.3 94.3

Population impact of constraint Number of persons +37 +6

Households Number of Households 31,651 31,853 32,063 32,244 32,409 32,573 32,740 32,914 33,086 33,255 33,403 33,644 33,881 34,109 34,280 34,461 34,628 34,780 34,932 35,048 35,149 35,245 35,335 35,402 35,450 35,488 35,508 Change in Households over previous year -2 +202 +211 +180 +166 +164 +166 +175 +172 +169 +149 +241 +236 +228 +171 +181 +167 +152 +152 +116 +101 +96 +90 +67 +48 +38 +20 Number of supply units 32,264 32,470 32,684 32,868 33,037 33,204 33,374 33,552 33,727 33,899 34,050 34,296 34,537 34,769 34,944 35,129 35,299 35,454 35,609 35,727 35,830 35,927 36,019 36,087 36,137 36,175 36,196 Change in over previous year -2 +206 +215 +184 +169 +167 +170 +178 +175 +172 +152 +246 +241 +233 +174 +185 +170 +155 +155 +118 +103 +97 +92 +68 +49 +39 +20

Labour Force Number of Labour Force 41,300 41,211 41,145 41,090 41,042 40,994 40,907 40,780 40,731 40,625 40,438 40,252 40,094 39,956 39,762 39,563 39,389 39,216 39,048 38,856 38,646 38,473 38,281 38,098 37,920 37,732 37,573 Change in Labour Force over previous year-63 -89 -66 -55 -48 -48 -87 -126 -50 -106 -186 -186 -159 -138 -193 -200 -174 -172 -168 -193 -210 -173 -192 -183 -177 -188 -160 Number of supply units 26,350 26,788 27,560 27,523 27,491 27,397 27,277 27,131 27,036 26,905 26,781 26,658 26,553 26,461 26,333 26,201 26,086 25,972 25,860 25,733 25,594 25,479 25,352 25,231 25,113 24,989 24,883 Change in over previous year -157 +439 +772 -37 -32 -94 -120 -146 -95 -132 -124 -123 -105 -91 -128 -132 -115 -114 -111 -128 -139 -114 -127 -121 -117 -124 -106 Population Estimates and Forecasts Zero Net Migration

Components of Population Change Tamworth Year beginning July 1st ………….. 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 Births Male 501 506 507 500 495 492 489 484 478 473 468 464 461 458 456 455 454 453 453 453 454 455 456 458 459 460

Female 477 482 483 477 472 468 466 461 456 450 445 442 439 436 435 433 432 432 431 432 432 433 435 436 437 438

All Births 979 987 990 977 967 960 955 944 934 923 913 906 899 893 891 888 886 885 884 885 886 888 891 894 896 898 TFR 1.93 1.96 1.97 1.95 1.94 1.93 1.93 1.92 1.91 1.90 1.90 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.92 1.92 1.92 Births input

Deaths Male 264 294 284 285 292 289 296 300 304 310 315 321 327 332 339 347 352 359 366 373 378 384 392 397 401 406 Female 275 316 295 291 294 299 302 304 307 311 315 320 323 328 332 337 344 350 357 364 371 376 383 390 396 402 All deaths 539 610 579 576 586 589 598 603 611 621 630 641 650 660 671 684 696 709 723 737 748 760 775 787 797 808 SMR: males 103.5 110.7 103.6 100.3 99.2 94.8 93.3 91.0 89.1 87.4 85.5 84.0 82.5 80.9 79.7 78.7 77.1 76.0 75.1 74.3 72.9 71.9 71.3 70.3 69.2 68.5 SMR: females 103.5 115.7 105.3 100.7 98.7 97.4 95.4 93.0 91.0 89.4 87.7 86.2 84.0 82.6 80.9 79.6 78.5 77.4 76.3 75.3 74.4 73.3 72.5 71.5 70.7 69.9 SMR: persons 103.5 113.2 104.5 100.5 99.0 96.1 94.4 92.0 90.0 88.4 86.6 85.1 83.2 81.7 80.3 79.1 77.8 76.7 75.7 74.8 73.6 72.6 71.9 70.9 70.0 69.2 Expectation of life: males 78.8 77.9 78.9 79.1 79.3 79.9 80.0 80.3 80.6 80.9 81.2 81.4 81.6 81.9 82.1 82.2 82.5 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.5 83.5 83.8 84.0 84.1 Expectation of life: females 82.8 81.6 82.7 83.1 83.4 83.5 83.7 84.0 84.2 84.5 84.7 84.9 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 85.9 86.1 86.2 86.4 86.5 86.7 86.8 87.0 87.1 87.2 Expectation of life: persons 81.0 79.9 80.9 81.3 81.5 81.9 82.0 82.4 82.6 82.8 83.1 83.3 83.6 83.8 84.0 84.1 84.4 84.5 84.7 84.9 85.0 85.2 85.3 85.5 85.6 85.8 Deaths input

In-migration from the UK Male 1,365 1,379 1,382 1,386 1,392 1,394 1,395 1,397 1,398 1,397 1,397 1,401 1,401 1,402 1,406 1,411 1,413 1,415 1,419 1,422 1,426 1,430 1,435 1,440 1,444 1,449 Female 1,387 1,396 1,394 1,394 1,396 1,394 1,391 1,389 1,387 1,383 1,382 1,385 1,384 1,385 1,389 1,395 1,398 1,401 1,405 1,409 1,412 1,417 1,422 1,426 1,430 1,435

All 2,753 2,775 2,776 2,780 2,788 2,787 2,786 2,786 2,785 2,780 2,779 2,786 2,785 2,787 2,795 2,805 2,812 2,816 2,824 2,831 2,838 2,847 2,857 2,865 2,875 2,884 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to the UK Male 1,359 1,368 1,370 1,374 1,380 1,384 1,386 1,389 1,392 1,391 1,392 1,397 1,398 1,399 1,402 1,407 1,410 1,412 1,416 1,418 1,421 1,426 1,430 1,434 1,439 1,443 Female 1,394 1,408 1,407 1,406 1,408 1,404 1,400 1,397 1,394 1,389 1,387 1,389 1,387 1,388 1,393 1,398 1,402 1,404 1,408 1,412 1,417 1,422 1,427 1,431 1,436 1,441 All 2,753 2,775 2,776 2,780 2,788 2,787 2,786 2,786 2,785 2,780 2,779 2,786 2,785 2,787 2,795 2,805 2,812 2,816 2,824 2,831 2,838 2,847 2,857 2,865 2,875 2,884 SMigR: males 33.9 34.4 34.3 34.3 34.2 34.2 34.1 34.2 34.2 34.3 34.3 34.4 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.6 34.6 34.5 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.9 35.0 SMigR: females 33.9 34.4 34.3 34.3 34.2 34.2 34.1 34.2 34.2 34.3 34.3 34.4 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.6 34.6 34.5 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.9 35.0 Migrants input **************************

In-migration from Overseas

Male 201 65 65 65 67 65 66 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65

Female 240 54 54 54 55 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 All 441 119 119 119 121 120 120 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to Overseas Male 349 65 65 66 67 66 67 66 66 66 66 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 Female 308 53 53 53 54 53 53 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 All 658 119 119 119 121 120 120 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 SMigR: males 154.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.9 29.4 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 SMigR: females 166.3 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.9 29.4 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 Migrants input **************************

Migration - Net Flows UK +0 +0 +0 +0 0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 0 +0 -0 -0 -0 -0 +0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 Overseas -217 0 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 +0 +0 -0 -0 +0 -0 +0 0 -0 +0 +0 -0

Summary of population change

Natural change +440 +377 +411 +401 +381 +371 +357 +341 +323 +303 +283 +265 +249 +234 +220 +204 +190 +177 +162 +148 +138 +128 +116 +107 +99 +91 Net migration -217 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0 -0 -0 -0 +0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 Net change +223 +377 +411 +401 +381 +371 +357 +341 +323 +303 +283 +265 +249 +234 +220 +204 +190 +177 +162 +148 +138 +128 +116 +107 +99 +91 Crude Birth Rate /000 12.71 12.77 12.74 12.51 12.31 12.17 12.05 11.86 11.69 11.51 11.34 11.22 11.09 10.99 10.93 10.87 10.82 10.78 10.75 10.74 10.73 10.73 10.75 10.77 10.79 10.80 Crude Death Rate /000 7.00 7.89 7.45 7.37 7.46 7.46 7.54 7.58 7.65 7.74 7.82 7.93 8.02 8.11 8.23 8.37 8.49 8.63 8.79 8.94 9.06 9.19 9.36 9.49 9.60 9.71 Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -2.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts Population at mid-year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 0-4 5,074 5,079 4,977 4,911 4,871 4,845 4,836 4,811 4,773 4,737 4,699 4,657 4,613 4,573 4,536 4,506 4,482 4,462 4,448 4,437 4,430 4,425 4,425 4,428 4,435 4,443 4,454 5-10 5,460 5,493 5,699 5,876 5,869 5,934 5,965 5,980 5,902 5,842 5,806 5,780 5,767 5,741 5,702 5,663 5,622 5,580 5,535 5,493 5,456 5,423 5,396 5,373 5,354 5,341 5,330 11-15 4,830 4,827 4,607 4,457 4,518 4,499 4,494 4,591 4,784 4,820 4,905 4,960 4,971 4,899 4,856 4,832 4,812 4,803 4,788 4,762 4,735 4,705 4,672 4,636 4,601 4,568 4,539 16-17 1,975 1,936 2,023 2,041 1,912 1,841 1,828 1,756 1,688 1,821 1,872 1,814 1,858 1,974 2,039 1,992 1,959 1,935 1,924 1,930 1,929 1,917 1,909 1,902 1,892 1,878 1,864 18-59Female, 64Male 45,726 45,410 45,329 45,269 45,371 45,381 45,306 45,205 45,103 44,919 44,741 44,697 44,568 44,457 44,314 44,254 44,199 44,098 43,953 43,771 43,567 43,440 43,265 43,161 43,109 43,047 43,019 60/65 -74 9,165 9,526 9,871 10,167 10,374 10,604 10,841 10,997 11,091 11,214 11,319 11,235 11,196 11,209 11,322 11,459 11,573 11,687 11,813 11,999 12,190 12,302 12,469 12,553 12,539 12,532 12,495 75-84 3,467 3,600 3,701 3,842 4,003 4,118 4,260 4,446 4,735 4,975 5,201 5,592 5,930 6,189 6,392 6,572 6,725 6,836 6,927 6,991 7,058 7,011 6,979 6,989 7,072 7,170 7,263 85+ 1,198 1,247 1,289 1,343 1,389 1,467 1,531 1,631 1,680 1,753 1,842 1,931 2,028 2,140 2,255 2,359 2,468 2,629 2,818 2,985 3,152 3,430 3,668 3,854 4,001 4,122 4,229 Total 76,895 77,118 77,495 77,906 78,307 78,688 79,060 79,417 79,758 80,081 80,384 80,667 80,932 81,181 81,415 81,635 81,839 82,029 82,206 82,368 82,516 82,653 82,781 82,897 83,004 83,102 83,193

Dependency ratios, mean age and sex ratio 0-15 / 16-65 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 65+ / 16-65 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.76 Median age males 37.5 37.9 38.1 38.2 38.4 38.5 38.6 38.7 38.8 39.1 39.2 39.4 39.6 39.8 40.0 40.2 40.4 40.5 40.7 40.9 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.5 41.7 41.8 41.9 Median age females 39.0 39.5 39.8 40.2 40.5 40.7 40.9 41.1 41.3 41.4 41.6 41.8 42.1 42.3 42.6 42.8 43.0 43.2 43.5 43.7 43.9 44.1 44.3 44.4 44.6 44.7 44.8 Sex ratio males /100 females 96.3 96.2 96.4 96.6 96.7 96.9 97.0 97.1 97.3 97.4 97.4 97.5 97.6 97.7 97.7 97.8 97.8 97.9 97.9 97.9 98.0 98.0 98.1 98.1 98.2 98.2 98.3

Population impact of constraint Number of persons -140 -217

Households Number of Households 31,651 31,853 32,093 32,307 32,511 32,712 32,919 33,136 33,360 33,586 33,797 34,099 34,397 34,689 34,922 35,166 35,394 35,607 35,824 36,008 36,180 36,348 36,515 36,660 36,787 36,906 37,009 Change in Households over previous year -2 +202 +241 +214 +203 +201 +207 +217 +224 +226 +212 +302 +297 +292 +233 +244 +228 +213 +217 +184 +172 +168 +167 +145 +127 +120 +103 Number of supply units 32,264 32,470 32,715 32,933 33,140 33,346 33,556 33,778 34,006 34,236 34,452 34,760 35,063 35,360 35,598 35,847 36,079 36,296 36,518 36,705 36,881 37,052 37,222 37,370 37,499 37,621 37,726 Change in over previous year -2 +206 +245 +218 +207 +205 +211 +221 +228 +230 +216 +308 +303 +298 +238 +248 +232 +217 +221 +187 +176 +172 +170 +148 +130 +122 +105

Labour Force Number of Labour Force 41,300 41,211 41,225 41,276 41,343 41,413 41,450 41,448 41,516 41,523 41,449 41,370 41,314 41,284 41,193 41,096 41,026 40,959 40,897 40,807 40,699 40,631 40,540 40,458 40,383 40,297 40,243 Change in Labour Force over previous year-63 -89 +14 +52 +67 +69 +38 -2 +68 +7 -73 -79 -57 -29 -91 -97 -70 -67 -62 -90 -109 -67 -92 -81 -75 -87 -54 Number of supply units 26,350 26,788 27,614 27,648 27,693 27,677 27,639 27,575 27,557 27,499 27,451 27,398 27,361 27,341 27,281 27,217 27,170 27,126 27,085 27,025 26,953 26,909 26,848 26,794 26,745 26,687 26,651 Change in over previous year -157 +439 +825 +35 +45 -16 -38 -64 -18 -58 -48 -52 -38 -19 -61 -64 -46 -44 -41 -60 -72 -45 -61 -54 -50 -57 -36 Population Estimates and Forecasts Experian Jobs

Components of Population Change Tamworth Year beginning July 1st ………….. 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 Births Male 500 506 494 519 517 521 525 526 525 527 527 528 531 532 537 540 544 547 550 555 559 558 557 557 556 556

Female 476 482 470 495 492 496 500 501 500 502 502 503 505 507 511 515 518 521 524 528 532 531 531 531 530 530

All Births 977 988 964 1,014 1,009 1,017 1,025 1,026 1,026 1,028 1,029 1,032 1,036 1,039 1,048 1,055 1,061 1,068 1,074 1,083 1,091 1,089 1,088 1,088 1,086 1,086 TFR 1.93 1.96 1.97 1.95 1.94 1.93 1.93 1.92 1.91 1.90 1.90 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.92 1.92 1.92 Births input

Deaths Male 264 294 282 288 295 294 301 306 312 318 324 331 339 345 354 363 370 378 388 397 403 409 418 424 428 434 Female 275 316 293 295 299 306 310 313 317 323 329 335 340 346 352 359 368 376 385 394 402 409 416 423 430 436 All deaths 539 610 575 583 594 599 611 619 628 641 653 667 678 691 706 723 738 754 772 790 805 817 834 847 858 870 SMR: males 103.5 110.7 103.6 100.3 99.2 94.8 93.3 91.0 89.1 87.4 85.5 84.0 82.5 80.9 79.7 78.7 77.1 76.0 75.1 74.3 72.9 71.9 71.3 70.3 69.2 68.5 SMR: females 103.5 115.7 105.3 100.7 98.7 97.4 95.4 93.0 91.0 89.4 87.7 86.2 84.0 82.6 80.9 79.6 78.5 77.4 76.3 75.3 74.4 73.3 72.5 71.5 70.7 69.9 SMR: persons 103.5 113.2 104.5 100.5 99.0 96.1 94.4 92.0 90.0 88.4 86.6 85.1 83.2 81.7 80.3 79.1 77.8 76.7 75.7 74.8 73.7 72.6 71.9 70.9 70.0 69.2 Expectation of life: males 78.8 77.9 78.8 79.1 79.3 79.9 80.0 80.4 80.6 80.9 81.2 81.4 81.7 81.9 82.1 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.5 83.5 83.8 84.0 84.1 Expectation of life: females 82.8 81.6 82.7 83.1 83.4 83.5 83.7 84.0 84.2 84.5 84.7 84.9 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 85.9 86.1 86.2 86.4 86.5 86.7 86.8 87.0 87.1 87.2 Expectation of life: persons 81.0 79.9 80.9 81.3 81.5 81.9 82.1 82.4 82.6 82.8 83.1 83.3 83.6 83.8 84.0 84.2 84.4 84.5 84.7 84.9 85.1 85.2 85.3 85.5 85.7 85.8 Deaths input

In-migration from the UK Male 1,274 1,054 1,923 1,369 1,456 1,429 1,450 1,435 1,475 1,463 1,469 1,487 1,477 1,508 1,513 1,512 1,505 1,500 1,512 1,513 1,393 1,398 1,404 1,409 1,415 1,420 Female 1,344 1,119 2,040 1,448 1,537 1,506 1,525 1,506 1,545 1,528 1,533 1,548 1,537 1,568 1,573 1,572 1,564 1,559 1,572 1,574 1,449 1,456 1,463 1,468 1,474 1,480

All 2,618 2,174 3,963 2,817 2,993 2,934 2,974 2,942 3,020 2,991 3,002 3,035 3,014 3,076 3,086 3,084 3,069 3,058 3,084 3,088 2,842 2,854 2,866 2,877 2,889 2,901 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to the UK Male 1,442 1,688 797 1,375 1,293 1,324 1,303 1,318 1,279 1,286 1,281 1,271 1,283 1,252 1,253 1,265 1,276 1,288 1,281 1,284 1,412 1,415 1,418 1,420 1,422 1,424 Female 1,445 1,688 793 1,369 1,290 1,316 1,295 1,313 1,272 1,283 1,275 1,266 1,273 1,245 1,250 1,262 1,279 1,286 1,284 1,290 1,422 1,426 1,429 1,434 1,439 1,442 All 2,887 3,377 1,590 2,744 2,583 2,640 2,597 2,631 2,550 2,570 2,556 2,537 2,556 2,497 2,504 2,527 2,555 2,574 2,564 2,574 2,834 2,841 2,847 2,853 2,861 2,867 SMigR: males 35.9 42.4 20.5 33.7 31.6 32.1 31.4 31.6 30.5 30.5 30.2 29.7 29.8 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.1 28.0 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 SMigR: females 35.1 41.2 19.8 32.5 30.5 30.9 30.3 30.5 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.8 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.2 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 Migrants input **************************

In-migration from Overseas

Male 241 77 77 77 81 78 79 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77

Female 263 64 65 64 67 65 66 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 All 505 142 142 142 148 144 145 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to Overseas Male 214 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 Female 237 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 All 451 95 95 96 95 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 SMigR: males 94.3 24.1 24.8 23.7 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.2 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.3 22.2 22.0 21.8 21.6 21.4 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 SMigR: females 127.7 22.3 23.0 21.9 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.1 21.1 21.0 20.9 20.8 20.7 20.5 20.3 20.2 20.0 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.9 19.9 19.9 Migrants input **************************

Migration - Net Flows UK -269 -1,203 +2,373 +73 +410 +294 +377 +310 +470 +421 +447 +498 +458 +579 +582 +557 +515 +484 +520 +514 +8 +13 +19 +24 +28 +34 Overseas +54 +46 +47 +46 +52 +48 +49 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46

Summary of population change

Natural change +438 +378 +389 +431 +415 +417 +414 +408 +397 +387 +376 +365 +357 +348 +342 +332 +323 +314 +302 +293 +286 +271 +254 +241 +228 +216 Net migration -215 -1,157 +2,419 +119 +462 +342 +426 +356 +516 +467 +493 +544 +505 +625 +628 +603 +561 +530 +566 +560 +54 +59 +65 +70 +74 +80 Net change +223 -779 +2,808 +550 +877 +760 +840 +764 +914 +854 +868 +909 +862 +973 +970 +935 +884 +844 +868 +852 +340 +330 +319 +311 +303 +297 Crude Birth Rate /000 12.68 12.87 12.39 12.77 12.59 12.56 12.53 12.43 12.30 12.20 12.08 11.99 11.92 11.83 11.80 11.75 11.71 11.67 11.63 11.61 11.62 11.56 11.51 11.47 11.42 11.38 Crude Death Rate /000 7.00 7.95 7.39 7.34 7.41 7.40 7.47 7.49 7.53 7.60 7.67 7.75 7.81 7.87 7.95 8.05 8.14 8.24 8.36 8.48 8.58 8.68 8.83 8.93 9.02 9.11 Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -2.79 -15.08 31.12 1.50 5.77 4.23 5.21 4.32 6.19 5.54 5.79 6.33 5.80 7.12 7.07 6.72 6.18 5.79 6.13 6.00 0.58 0.62 0.69 0.74 0.78 0.84

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts Population at mid-year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 0-4 5,074 5,079 4,880 5,011 5,006 5,033 5,073 5,111 5,135 5,164 5,188 5,207 5,226 5,241 5,266 5,297 5,328 5,356 5,383 5,414 5,446 5,439 5,431 5,424 5,419 5,414 5,411 5-10 5,460 5,493 5,641 5,983 5,994 6,104 6,176 6,236 6,191 6,189 6,216 6,251 6,312 6,360 6,410 6,453 6,492 6,525 6,549 6,575 6,603 6,599 6,597 6,593 6,588 6,583 6,576 11-15 4,830 4,827 4,575 4,529 4,604 4,616 4,637 4,763 4,991 5,064 5,174 5,271 5,324 5,287 5,286 5,321 5,355 5,405 5,453 5,496 5,531 5,542 5,547 5,546 5,544 5,541 5,540 16-17 1,975 1,936 2,005 2,083 1,961 1,899 1,893 1,827 1,765 1,911 1,983 1,936 1,990 2,128 2,212 2,173 2,158 2,157 2,158 2,180 2,203 2,211 2,217 2,228 2,235 2,237 2,237 18-59Female, 64Male 45,726 45,410 44,436 46,042 46,186 46,498 46,641 46,825 46,957 47,126 47,264 47,563 47,814 48,052 48,344 48,726 49,097 49,393 49,632 49,859 50,068 50,007 49,923 49,915 49,972 50,026 50,123 60/65 -74 9,165 9,526 9,838 10,252 10,479 10,736 11,000 11,186 11,306 11,458 11,595 11,537 11,525 11,573 11,730 11,918 12,084 12,247 12,425 12,671 12,923 13,070 13,261 13,370 13,380 13,393 13,380 75-84 3,467 3,600 3,687 3,880 4,051 4,181 4,336 4,539 4,846 5,108 5,356 5,778 6,151 6,436 6,667 6,876 7,055 7,191 7,305 7,389 7,473 7,423 7,391 7,411 7,507 7,625 7,737 85+ 1,198 1,247 1,276 1,366 1,416 1,505 1,578 1,688 1,746 1,831 1,930 2,032 2,142 2,269 2,403 2,525 2,654 2,834 3,046 3,236 3,425 3,721 3,975 4,173 4,327 4,455 4,567 Total 76,895 77,118 76,339 79,147 79,697 80,574 81,334 82,174 82,938 83,852 84,706 85,575 86,484 87,346 88,319 89,289 90,224 91,108 91,952 92,820 93,672 94,012 94,342 94,661 94,972 95,275 95,571

Dependency ratios, mean age and sex ratio 0-15 / 16-65 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 65+ / 16-65 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.42 0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 Median age males 37.5 37.9 38.3 38.0 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.3 38.4 38.5 38.5 38.6 38.7 38.8 38.8 38.9 39.0 39.2 39.3 39.4 39.7 39.9 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.6 Median age females 39.0 39.5 40.1 39.9 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.3 40.4 40.4 40.5 40.6 40.7 40.8 40.9 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.4 41.5 41.6 41.8 42.0 42.2 42.5 42.7 42.9 Sex ratio males /100 females 96.3 96.2 96.2 96.1 96.0 95.9 95.8 95.7 95.7 95.6 95.6 95.5 95.5 95.4 95.4 95.3 95.3 95.3 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.1 95.1 95.1 95.1 95.1

Population impact of constraint Number of persons +37 +5 -1,051 +2,509 +197 +529 +397 +464 +385 +536 +474 +494 +557 +509 +622 +623 +601 +548 +503 +531 +515

Labour Force Number of Labour Force 41,300 41,211 40,530 42,008 42,142 42,477 42,709 42,956 43,235 43,560 43,772 43,998 44,285 44,572 44,874 45,176 45,493 45,795 46,082 46,369 46,640 46,658 46,656 46,666 46,690 46,711 46,769 Change in Labour Force over previous year-63 -89 -681 +1,478 +134 +335 +231 +247 +279 +325 +211 +226 +287 +287 +302 +302 +317 +302 +287 +287 +272 +17 -1 +9 +25 +20 +58 Number of supply units 26,350 26,788 27,148 28,138 28,228 28,388 28,478 28,578 28,698 28,848 28,988 29,138 29,328 29,518 29,718 29,918 30,128 30,328 30,518 30,708 30,888 30,900 30,899 30,905 30,921 30,935 30,974 Change in over previous year -157 +439 +360 +990 +90 +160 +90 +100 +120 +150 +140 +150 +190 +190 +200 +200 +210 +200 +190 +190 +180 +11 -1 +6 +17 +13 +39

Households Number of Households 31,651 31,853 31,725 32,774 33,052 33,464 33,849 34,259 34,622 35,063 35,465 35,983 36,525 37,052 37,566 38,106 38,627 39,117 39,602 40,069 40,522 40,795 41,070 41,318 41,544 41,761 41,960 Change in Households over previous year -2 +202 -127 +1,048 +278 +413 +385 +409 +363 +441 +403 +518 +542 +527 +514 +540 +521 +490 +485 +467 +453 +274 +274 +248 +226 +217 +199 Number of supply units 32,264 32,470 32,340 33,408 33,692 34,112 34,505 34,922 35,292 35,742 36,152 36,680 37,233 37,770 38,294 38,844 39,375 39,874 40,369 40,845 41,307 41,586 41,865 42,118 42,348 42,570 42,773 Change in over previous year -2 +206 -130 +1,069 +283 +421 +393 +417 +370 +449 +410 +528 +552 +537 +524 +550 +531 +499 +495 +476 +461 +279 +280 +253 +230 +222 +203 Population Estimates and Forecasts Job Stabilisation

Components of Population Change Tamworth Year beginning July 1st ………….. 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 Births Male 500 506 482 477 473 473 474 473 471 469 467 466 465 464 465 466 467 468 469 471 473 474 477 479 481 482

Female 476 482 459 455 451 450 452 451 448 446 445 444 443 442 443 444 445 445 446 448 450 452 454 456 458 459

All Births 977 988 941 932 924 923 926 924 919 915 911 910 908 906 909 911 912 913 915 919 923 926 931 935 938 941 TFR 1.93 1.96 1.97 1.95 1.94 1.93 1.93 1.92 1.91 1.90 1.90 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.92 1.92 1.92 Births input

Deaths Male 264 294 281 282 289 287 294 298 303 309 314 321 327 333 340 348 354 361 369 376 381 387 396 401 405 410 Female 275 316 290 287 291 297 301 304 308 313 318 324 328 332 338 344 351 358 366 374 381 388 395 402 409 415 All deaths 539 610 571 569 580 584 595 602 611 622 632 645 655 665 678 692 705 719 734 750 762 775 791 803 814 825 SMR: males 103.5 110.7 103.6 100.3 99.2 94.8 93.3 91.0 89.1 87.4 85.5 84.0 82.5 80.9 79.7 78.7 77.1 76.0 75.1 74.3 72.9 71.9 71.3 70.3 69.2 68.5 SMR: females 103.5 115.7 105.3 100.7 98.7 97.4 95.4 93.0 91.0 89.4 87.7 86.2 84.0 82.6 80.9 79.6 78.5 77.4 76.3 75.3 74.4 73.3 72.5 71.5 70.7 69.9 SMR: persons 103.5 113.2 104.5 100.5 99.0 96.1 94.4 92.0 90.0 88.4 86.6 85.1 83.2 81.7 80.3 79.1 77.8 76.7 75.7 74.8 73.7 72.6 71.9 70.9 70.0 69.2 Expectation of life: males 78.8 77.9 78.8 79.1 79.3 79.9 80.0 80.4 80.6 80.9 81.2 81.4 81.7 81.9 82.1 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.5 83.6 83.9 84.0 84.2 Expectation of life: females 82.8 81.6 82.7 83.1 83.4 83.5 83.7 84.0 84.2 84.5 84.7 84.9 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.7 85.9 86.1 86.2 86.4 86.5 86.7 86.8 87.0 87.1 87.2 Expectation of life: persons 81.0 79.9 80.9 81.3 81.5 81.9 82.0 82.4 82.6 82.8 83.1 83.3 83.6 83.8 84.0 84.2 84.4 84.5 84.7 84.9 85.1 85.2 85.3 85.5 85.7 85.8 Deaths input

In-migration from the UK Male 1,274 842 1,344 1,333 1,367 1,381 1,393 1,367 1,389 1,384 1,385 1,378 1,371 1,395 1,401 1,396 1,398 1,400 1,414 1,423 1,410 1,421 1,422 1,423 1,430 1,421 Female 1,344 894 1,426 1,411 1,444 1,455 1,466 1,435 1,455 1,446 1,445 1,435 1,426 1,451 1,457 1,451 1,453 1,455 1,471 1,480 1,467 1,480 1,482 1,482 1,490 1,481

All 2,618 1,736 2,771 2,745 2,811 2,836 2,859 2,803 2,844 2,829 2,829 2,813 2,796 2,846 2,858 2,848 2,851 2,855 2,885 2,903 2,877 2,901 2,904 2,905 2,920 2,901 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to the UK Male 1,442 1,907 1,395 1,412 1,385 1,373 1,361 1,388 1,367 1,367 1,368 1,382 1,392 1,368 1,368 1,383 1,385 1,390 1,380 1,376 1,394 1,391 1,399 1,406 1,407 1,424 Female 1,445 1,907 1,387 1,405 1,380 1,365 1,352 1,382 1,360 1,364 1,361 1,377 1,382 1,360 1,364 1,380 1,388 1,388 1,383 1,382 1,404 1,402 1,410 1,420 1,423 1,442 All 2,887 3,814 2,782 2,816 2,765 2,739 2,713 2,770 2,727 2,731 2,729 2,759 2,774 2,727 2,732 2,763 2,773 2,778 2,763 2,758 2,798 2,793 2,809 2,825 2,829 2,866 SMigR: males 35.9 47.9 36.4 36.8 36.0 35.6 35.2 35.8 35.2 35.2 35.2 35.4 35.7 35.0 34.9 35.1 35.0 35.0 34.7 34.4 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.8 34.8 35.1 SMigR: females 35.1 46.6 35.4 35.7 35.0 34.6 34.2 34.8 34.3 34.3 34.2 34.5 34.6 34.0 34.0 34.1 34.2 34.0 33.8 33.6 33.9 33.8 33.8 34.0 34.0 34.3 Migrants input **************************

In-migration from Overseas

Male 241 77 77 77 81 78 79 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77

Female 263 64 65 64 67 65 66 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 All 505 142 142 142 148 144 145 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to Overseas Male 214 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 Female 237 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 All 451 95 95 96 95 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 SMigR: males 94.3 24.1 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.4 SMigR: females 127.7 22.3 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.0 23.0 Migrants input **************************

Migration - Net Flows UK -269 -2,078 -12 -72 +46 +97 +147 +32 +117 +98 +101 +54 +23 +119 +126 +85 +78 +78 +122 +145 +79 +108 +95 +80 +91 +35 Overseas +54 +46 +47 +46 +52 +48 +49 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46

Summary of population change

Natural change +438 +378 +370 +363 +344 +338 +331 +322 +308 +293 +279 +265 +254 +241 +231 +218 +206 +194 +181 +169 +161 +152 +140 +132 +124 +116 Net migration -215 -2,032 +35 -26 +98 +145 +196 +79 +163 +144 +147 +100 +69 +165 +172 +131 +124 +124 +168 +191 +125 +155 +141 +126 +137 +81 Net change +223 -1,655 +405 +337 +442 +484 +527 +400 +471 +437 +426 +366 +323 +406 +403 +349 +330 +318 +349 +361 +286 +306 +281 +258 +261 +197 Crude Birth Rate /000 12.68 12.95 12.44 12.25 12.08 12.00 11.96 11.86 11.73 11.62 11.51 11.44 11.36 11.29 11.26 11.23 11.20 11.17 11.15 11.15 11.16 11.16 11.17 11.19 11.19 11.20 Crude Death Rate /000 7.00 8.00 7.55 7.48 7.59 7.60 7.68 7.73 7.80 7.90 7.99 8.10 8.19 8.28 8.40 8.54 8.66 8.80 8.95 9.10 9.22 9.33 9.49 9.61 9.71 9.81 Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -2.79 -26.64 0.46 -0.34 1.28 1.89 2.53 1.01 2.08 1.83 1.85 1.26 0.86 2.05 2.13 1.61 1.52 1.51 2.05 2.32 1.51 1.86 1.69 1.51 1.63 0.96

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts Population at mid-year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 0-4 5,074 5,079 4,804 4,719 4,666 4,634 4,630 4,625 4,609 4,602 4,594 4,584 4,568 4,551 4,544 4,543 4,544 4,546 4,550 4,559 4,572 4,582 4,596 4,612 4,629 4,646 4,660 5-10 5,460 5,493 5,585 5,767 5,756 5,819 5,846 5,858 5,761 5,692 5,654 5,626 5,618 5,605 5,595 5,588 5,580 5,570 5,557 5,548 5,545 5,541 5,543 5,546 5,550 5,559 5,566 11-15 4,830 4,827 4,540 4,400 4,460 4,452 4,460 4,565 4,762 4,807 4,883 4,935 4,940 4,855 4,799 4,770 4,745 4,736 4,730 4,724 4,721 4,715 4,707 4,697 4,687 4,679 4,673 16-17 1,975 1,936 1,987 2,018 1,901 1,837 1,828 1,760 1,694 1,826 1,885 1,835 1,876 1,990 2,057 2,004 1,968 1,945 1,926 1,924 1,921 1,914 1,912 1,913 1,912 1,908 1,902 18-59Female, 64Male 45,726 45,410 43,811 43,715 43,740 43,779 43,774 43,785 43,714 43,628 43,536 43,579 43,512 43,440 43,401 43,447 43,467 43,435 43,362 43,281 43,197 43,135 43,060 43,045 43,073 43,106 43,138 60/65 -74 9,165 9,526 9,800 10,104 10,318 10,552 10,796 10,964 11,063 11,187 11,294 11,210 11,165 11,174 11,289 11,432 11,554 11,670 11,801 11,994 12,191 12,308 12,468 12,546 12,530 12,513 12,466 75-84 3,467 3,600 3,671 3,822 3,991 4,116 4,268 4,464 4,762 5,014 5,253 5,659 6,011 6,278 6,491 6,679 6,837 6,953 7,048 7,113 7,179 7,126 7,091 7,102 7,186 7,290 7,386 85+ 1,198 1,247 1,265 1,323 1,373 1,458 1,530 1,637 1,693 1,773 1,867 1,964 2,066 2,186 2,311 2,425 2,544 2,713 2,912 3,091 3,269 3,560 3,812 4,009 4,161 4,287 4,396 Total 76,895 77,118 75,463 75,869 76,206 76,647 77,131 77,658 78,058 78,529 78,966 79,392 79,757 80,080 80,486 80,889 81,238 81,568 81,886 82,235 82,596 82,882 83,188 83,469 83,727 83,989 84,186

Dependency ratios, mean age and sex ratio 0-15 / 16-65 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 65+ / 16-65 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.46 0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.78 Median age males 37.5 37.9 38.5 38.7 38.9 39.0 39.1 39.1 39.2 39.3 39.5 39.6 39.7 39.8 39.9 40.1 40.1 40.2 40.4 40.5 40.6 40.8 40.9 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.3 Median age females 39.0 39.5 40.3 40.6 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.6 41.7 41.8 41.9 42.1 42.3 42.5 42.6 42.8 43.0 43.1 43.3 43.4 43.6 43.7 43.8 43.9 44.0 44.1 44.2 Sex ratio males /100 females 96.3 96.2 96.1 96.0 95.9 95.8 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.4 95.3 95.3 95.2 95.1 95.0 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.8 94.7 94.7 94.6 94.6 94.5 94.5 94.5 94.5

Population impact of constraint Number of persons +37 +5 -1,926 +125 +52 +165 +200 +233 +107 +183 +151 +148 +113 +73 +161 +167 +129 +111 +97 +133 +147 +71 +96 +76 +56 +63 +1

Labour Force Number of Labour Force 41,300 41,211 39,993 39,993 39,993 40,083 40,174 40,266 40,357 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 40,450 Change in Labour Force over previous year-63 -89 -1,218 -0 +0 +91 +91 +91 +92 +92 0 -0 +0 +0 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 +0 +0 -0 0 +0 -0 0 Number of supply units 26,350 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 26,788 Change in over previous year -157 +439 +0 -0 +0 +0 0 +0 +0 +0 0 -0 +0 +0 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 +0 +0 -0 0 +0 -0 0

Households Number of Households 31,651 31,853 31,429 31,658 31,853 32,100 32,369 32,652 32,870 33,134 33,381 33,731 34,068 34,391 34,691 35,009 35,299 35,569 35,837 36,088 36,338 36,562 36,796 37,004 37,187 37,366 37,507 Change in Households over previous year -2 +202 -424 +229 +195 +247 +269 +283 +218 +264 +247 +349 +338 +323 +300 +318 +290 +270 +268 +251 +250 +224 +234 +207 +183 +179 +141 Number of supply units 32,264 32,470 32,037 32,271 32,470 32,722 32,996 33,285 33,507 33,776 34,028 34,384 34,728 35,057 35,363 35,687 35,983 36,258 36,531 36,787 37,042 37,270 37,509 37,720 37,907 38,089 38,233 Change in over previous year -2 +206 -432 +234 +199 +252 +275 +289 +222 +269 +252 +356 +344 +329 +306 +324 +296 +275 +273 +256 +254 +228 +239 +212 +187 +182 +144 Population Estimates and Forecasts Past Trends Job Growth

Components of Population Change Tamworth Year beginning July 1st ………….. 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 Births Male 500 506 474 462 450 442 436 428 419 411 403 397 391 385 381 378 375 372 369 368 366 365 363 362 360 358

Female 476 482 452 440 429 421 416 408 399 391 384 378 372 366 363 360 357 354 352 350 349 347 346 345 343 341

All Births 977 988 926 901 879 863 852 836 818 802 787 775 763 751 745 738 731 726 721 718 715 712 709 707 702 698 TFR 1.93 1.96 1.97 1.95 1.94 1.93 1.93 1.92 1.91 1.90 1.90 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.92 1.92 1.92 Births input

Deaths Male 264 294 279 279 286 283 288 292 295 300 304 309 314 319 325 331 335 341 347 353 357 361 368 372 374 377 Female 275 316 289 285 287 292 294 296 299 302 307 311 314 317 321 326 332 338 344 350 356 361 367 372 377 382 All deaths 539 610 568 564 572 574 582 587 594 603 611 621 628 636 646 658 668 679 691 704 713 722 735 744 751 759 SMR: males 103.5 110.7 103.6 100.3 99.2 94.8 93.3 91.0 89.1 87.4 85.5 84.0 82.5 80.9 79.7 78.7 77.1 76.0 75.1 74.3 72.9 71.9 71.3 70.3 69.2 68.5 SMR: females 103.5 115.7 105.3 100.7 98.7 97.4 95.4 93.0 91.0 89.4 87.7 86.2 84.0 82.6 80.9 79.6 78.5 77.4 76.3 75.3 74.4 73.3 72.5 71.5 70.7 69.9 SMR: persons 103.5 113.2 104.5 100.5 99.0 96.1 94.4 92.0 90.0 88.4 86.6 85.1 83.2 81.7 80.3 79.1 77.8 76.7 75.7 74.8 73.7 72.6 71.9 70.9 70.0 69.2 Expectation of life: males 78.8 77.9 78.8 79.1 79.3 79.9 80.0 80.4 80.6 80.9 81.2 81.4 81.7 81.9 82.1 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.4 83.5 83.6 83.9 84.1 84.2 Expectation of life: females 82.8 81.6 82.7 83.1 83.4 83.5 83.7 84.0 84.2 84.5 84.6 84.9 85.2 85.3 85.6 85.7 85.9 86.0 86.2 86.4 86.5 86.7 86.8 87.0 87.1 87.2 Expectation of life: persons 81.0 79.9 80.9 81.3 81.5 81.9 82.0 82.4 82.6 82.8 83.1 83.3 83.6 83.8 84.0 84.1 84.4 84.5 84.7 84.9 85.1 85.2 85.3 85.5 85.7 85.8 Deaths input

In-migration from the UK Male 1,274 695 1,201 1,191 1,224 1,237 1,249 1,223 1,243 1,240 1,241 1,235 1,229 1,252 1,259 1,256 1,260 1,264 1,279 1,289 1,279 1,292 1,296 1,299 1,307 1,300 Female 1,344 738 1,274 1,260 1,292 1,304 1,314 1,284 1,302 1,296 1,295 1,286 1,278 1,303 1,309 1,305 1,309 1,313 1,331 1,341 1,332 1,346 1,350 1,353 1,362 1,355

All 2,618 1,432 2,475 2,451 2,516 2,542 2,563 2,507 2,545 2,536 2,536 2,520 2,507 2,555 2,568 2,561 2,569 2,577 2,610 2,631 2,611 2,639 2,646 2,651 2,669 2,655 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to the UK Male 1,442 2,059 1,543 1,559 1,532 1,521 1,509 1,536 1,517 1,514 1,515 1,529 1,537 1,514 1,512 1,526 1,526 1,529 1,518 1,512 1,527 1,522 1,528 1,532 1,532 1,546 Female 1,445 2,059 1,534 1,551 1,528 1,512 1,499 1,530 1,509 1,511 1,507 1,523 1,526 1,505 1,509 1,523 1,529 1,527 1,521 1,518 1,538 1,534 1,540 1,547 1,549 1,566 All 2,887 4,118 3,078 3,110 3,060 3,033 3,008 3,066 3,025 3,024 3,023 3,052 3,063 3,019 3,021 3,049 3,055 3,056 3,039 3,031 3,065 3,056 3,068 3,079 3,081 3,112 SMigR: males 35.9 51.7 40.8 41.6 41.3 41.3 41.3 42.4 42.3 42.7 43.1 43.9 44.5 44.3 44.5 45.1 45.4 45.8 45.7 45.9 46.6 46.8 47.3 47.9 48.3 49.2 SMigR: females 35.1 50.3 39.6 40.5 40.3 40.3 40.3 41.5 41.4 41.9 42.2 43.0 43.5 43.2 43.6 44.1 44.5 44.7 44.8 44.9 45.7 45.8 46.3 46.9 47.3 48.2 Migrants input **************************

In-migration from Overseas

Male 241 77 77 77 81 78 79 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77

Female 263 64 65 64 67 65 66 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 All 505 142 142 142 148 144 145 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Migrants input **************************

Out-migration to Overseas Male 214 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 Female 237 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 All 451 95 95 96 95 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 SMigR: males 94.3 24.1 25.6 26.0 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.8 31.0 31.3 31.5 31.8 SMigR: females 127.7 22.3 23.8 24.3 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.5 Migrants input **************************

Migration - Net Flows UK -269 -2,686 -603 -659 -544 -492 -445 -559 -480 -488 -487 -532 -557 -464 -453 -488 -486 -479 -429 -400 -454 -417 -422 -428 -412 -457 Overseas +54 +46 +47 +46 +52 +48 +49 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46 +46

Summary of population change

Natural change +438 +378 +357 +337 +306 +289 +270 +249 +224 +200 +176 +154 +135 +115 +99 +80 +64 +47 +30 +14 +2 -10 -25 -37 -49 -61 Net migration -215 -2,640 -556 -612 -492 -443 -396 -513 -434 -442 -441 -486 -510 -417 -407 -442 -440 -433 -383 -354 -408 -371 -376 -382 -366 -411 Net change +223 -2,262 -199 -275 -185 -155 -126 -264 -210 -243 -265 -331 -376 -302 -308 -361 -376 -386 -353 -340 -406 -382 -401 -419 -415 -471 Crude Birth Rate /000 12.68 13.00 12.38 12.10 11.83 11.65 11.52 11.34 11.13 10.94 10.77 10.65 10.53 10.42 10.37 10.33 10.29 10.27 10.25 10.26 10.27 10.28 10.31 10.33 10.33 10.34 Crude Death Rate /000 7.00 8.03 7.60 7.57 7.70 7.75 7.87 7.96 8.08 8.22 8.36 8.53 8.67 8.82 9.00 9.21 9.40 9.60 9.83 10.05 10.24 10.43 10.68 10.87 11.05 11.23 Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -2.79 -34.74 -7.44 -8.22 -6.62 -5.98 -5.35 -6.95 -5.91 -6.03 -6.04 -6.67 -7.05 -5.79 -5.67 -6.18 -6.19 -6.12 -5.45 -5.06 -5.86 -5.36 -5.46 -5.58 -5.38 -6.08

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts Population at mid-year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 0-4 5,074 5,079 4,752 4,608 4,493 4,394 4,320 4,243 4,156 4,080 4,005 3,930 3,854 3,780 3,719 3,668 3,623 3,582 3,545 3,518 3,496 3,472 3,455 3,439 3,424 3,409 3,389 5-10 5,460 5,493 5,546 5,687 5,632 5,644 5,615 5,568 5,406 5,265 5,151 5,043 4,953 4,856 4,764 4,677 4,593 4,511 4,432 4,361 4,299 4,242 4,194 4,152 4,115 4,084 4,054 11-15 4,830 4,827 4,516 4,352 4,386 4,352 4,332 4,404 4,563 4,570 4,604 4,610 4,566 4,433 4,320 4,231 4,141 4,065 3,990 3,917 3,849 3,780 3,714 3,649 3,588 3,533 3,484 16-17 1,975 1,936 1,975 1,995 1,869 1,796 1,779 1,703 1,628 1,744 1,790 1,730 1,755 1,849 1,895 1,828 1,773 1,730 1,690 1,663 1,633 1,599 1,570 1,545 1,518 1,491 1,462 18-59Female, 64Male 45,726 45,410 43,377 42,858 42,459 42,072 41,641 41,227 40,730 40,219 39,708 39,329 38,844 38,359 37,903 37,528 37,130 36,684 36,201 35,710 35,218 34,745 34,260 33,830 33,440 33,053 32,664 60/65 -74 9,165 9,526 9,773 10,050 10,234 10,437 10,649 10,783 10,847 10,933 11,002 10,880 10,794 10,759 10,825 10,916 10,983 11,045 11,117 11,246 11,375 11,429 11,520 11,533 11,455 11,374 11,265 75-84 3,467 3,600 3,661 3,801 3,960 4,075 4,215 4,399 4,683 4,921 5,144 5,530 5,862 6,108 6,299 6,465 6,601 6,695 6,767 6,810 6,852 6,780 6,723 6,710 6,764 6,837 6,900 85+ 1,198 1,247 1,257 1,308 1,350 1,428 1,491 1,590 1,638 1,710 1,796 1,883 1,976 2,085 2,200 2,304 2,411 2,567 2,752 2,916 3,079 3,348 3,579 3,756 3,890 3,999 4,090 Total 76,895 77,118 74,856 74,657 74,382 74,197 74,042 73,916 73,652 73,442 73,199 72,935 72,603 72,228 71,925 71,617 71,256 70,880 70,494 70,141 69,801 69,396 69,014 68,613 68,194 67,779 67,308

Dependency ratios, mean age and sex ratio 0-15 / 16-65 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 65+ / 16-65 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.45 0.46 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.56 0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.58 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.84 0.86 Median age males 37.5 37.9 38.6 39.0 39.3 39.6 39.9 40.0 40.2 40.5 40.7 41.0 41.3 41.6 41.8 42.1 42.3 42.6 42.8 42.9 43.1 43.3 43.5 43.6 43.8 43.9 44.1 Median age females 39.0 39.5 40.4 40.9 41.4 41.9 42.3 42.7 43.0 43.4 43.7 44.1 44.4 44.7 45.1 45.4 45.8 46.1 46.5 46.8 47.1 47.3 47.6 47.8 48.1 48.3 48.5 Sex ratio males /100 females 96.3 96.2 96.1 96.0 95.9 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.3 95.2 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.7 94.6 94.5 94.3 94.2 94.1 94.0 93.8 93.7 93.6 93.5 93.4 93.3 93.3

Population impact of constraint Number of persons +37 +5 -2,534 -466 -535 -425 -389 -358 -484 -414 -435 -439 -473 -506 -421 -412 -444 -453 -459 -418 -398 -462 -430 -441 -452 -440 -491

Labour Force Number of Labour Force 41,300 41,211 39,619 39,246 38,873 38,587 38,299 38,011 37,721 37,430 37,052 36,675 36,297 35,920 35,542 35,165 34,787 34,410 34,032 33,655 33,277 32,900 32,522 32,145 31,767 31,390 31,012 Change in Labour Force over previous year-63 -89 -1,592 -373 -373 -286 -287 -289 -290 -291 -377 -377 -377 -377 -377 -377 -377 -377 -377 -377 -377 -377 -377 -377 -377 -377 -377 Number of supply units 26,350 26,788 26,538 26,288 26,038 25,788 25,538 25,288 25,038 24,788 24,538 24,288 24,038 23,788 23,538 23,288 23,038 22,788 22,538 22,288 22,038 21,788 21,538 21,288 21,038 20,788 20,538 Change in over previous year -157 +439 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250 -250

Households Number of Households 31,651 31,853 31,223 31,245 31,227 31,252 31,291 31,335 31,309 31,321 31,315 31,400 31,471 31,526 31,555 31,596 31,610 31,603 31,591 31,562 31,531 31,474 31,425 31,352 31,258 31,158 31,024 Change in Households over previous year -2 +202 -630 +23 -18 +24 +39 +44 -27 +12 -6 +85 +71 +54 +30 +41 +14 -7 -12 -29 -31 -57 -50 -72 -94 -100 -134 Number of supply units 32,264 32,470 31,827 31,850 31,832 31,857 31,897 31,942 31,915 31,928 31,921 32,008 32,081 32,136 32,167 32,208 32,222 32,216 32,203 32,174 32,142 32,084 32,033 31,959 31,864 31,762 31,625 Change in over previous year -2 +206 -642 +23 -18 +25 +40 +45 -27 +13 -7 +87 +73 +55 +30 +42 +14 -7 -13 -29 -32 -58 -51 -74 -96 -102 -137