TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2014 BUSINESS

Reinventing Socialism: A risky business for French left Stand-off already straining government austerity plans PARIS: As a young aide to then-French region’s second largest economy. but is now increasingly targeted by the other policy goals to austerity is danger- “We are pushing ahead; I believe the Prime Minister Lionel Jospin in the late For some in the party, Valls has far-right National Front. With a small ous, pointless and absurd,” said former budget will pass.” There will be plenty of 1990s, Manuel Valls sat in on meetings declared war. If that is the case, the out- majority of French consistently identify- economy minister Arnaud Montebourg, similar stand-offs in coming weeks on as Britain’s Tony Blair and Germany’s come could shape French economic ing themselves with the Right, it has whom Valls fired along with two other next year’s welfare budget and planned Gerhard Schroeder tried to persuade his policy over the next three years and always been tough for the PS to win rebel ministers in September. “We have changes to labour representation rules boss to help them reinvent Europe’s determine whether the Socialists are power and keep it. Sometimes derided to realize that ordinary people cannot aimed at reducing charges for business. Left. Jospin, who at the time was ready- real contenders at the next presidential as the “teachers’ party”, it faces competi- pay the bill for the crisis; they’re the But the most explosive clashes could ing the 35-hour work week long election in 2017. “Manuel Valls is going tion for the left-wing vote from a mixed ones who make the economy work.” come next year as the party gears up to dreamed of by French Socialists, was for a confrontation,” said Christian Paul, bag of anti-globalization campaigners, determine who will get its ticket to run impressed neither by Blair’s “Third Way” one of the leaders of a group of rebel ecologists and others. Risk of schism as president in 2017, and on what set of nor Schroeder’s “New Centre”. But the Socialist lawmakers seeking to resist Before Hollande, Francois Mitterrand The comment points to the main policies. Whether the 52-year-old Valls talks made a deep mark on Valls, who 16 what they see as Valls’ lurch to the right. was France’s only modern-day Socialist fault-line in the dispute between the decides to throw in his hat or bide his years later has become premier himself. “It is very Darwinian-I’m not sure who is president, and he spent much of his time Hollande-Valls duo and party critics who time depends largely on the fortunes of “Valls got it,” said Denis MacShane, a going to survive in the end,” he said in in power from 1981 to 1995 in awkward reject the president’s conversion this Hollande, who will need to produce a former British Europe minister and Blair one of a series of interviews conducted power-sharing pacts with rivals, and year to supply-side policies aimed at rapid turnaround in his record-low poll ally who during that period struck up a by Reuters with senior Socialist officials. uneasy alliances with Communists and restoring corporate margins while limit- ratings of around 13 percent to bid seri- lasting acquaintance with Valls. “But he other hard-left groups. After a decade of ing public spending. While acknowledg- ously for a second term. Possible rivals also knew that if you stuck your neck Teachers’ party conservative prime ministers from 2002, ing the need to rein in borrowing at include Montebourg, a loose cannon out as a reformer, the French Socialist One by one, Europe’s main leftist par- the return to government has again been some point, they argue that, with unem- who nonetheless came third in PS pri- Party had a very well-oiled guillotine at ties have moved away from their tough for the Socialists. Alongside routs ployment rooted at 10 percent and eco- maries for the 2012 election; and the ready.” Valls, who makes no secret of Marxist roots: Germany’s Social in mid-term city hall and European nomic growth below 1.0 percent, to pur- Martine Aubry, a former minister under his presidential ambitions, has now put Democrats in 1959, Spain’s Socialist Parliament elections this year, thousands sue deficit cuts now is to betray the left- Jospin who deflects talk of presidential his neck firmly on the line. He told the Workers’ Party in 1979 and Britain’s of members have quit the party amid dis- wing principle of helping the needy. ambitions but last week made a pitch change-resistant Socialist Party last Labour Party in 1995. Italy’s post-com- illusionment among left-wingers. “In 10 Moreover, the repeated hints Valls is for what she called a programme of week that it must reform or die, and munist left changed both name and years of opposition, the PS did not do the dropping about the need to free up “new social democracy”. even toyed in public with the idea of ideology to become a centre-left party homework needed to prepare itself for France’s heavily regulated labor market From his office at Socialist headquar- changing its name. of government. The French Socialists government,” Valls complained to a small take aim at some of the proudest ters on the Left Bank of the River Seine, Moreover he took aim at hallowed followed suit in 2008 with a little- briefing of foreign journalists in his office achievements of the French Left. “This is party chief Jean-Christophe Cambadelis articles of Socialist faith, suggesting remembered tract recognizing the mar- last month. “We need a Left that is reli- a question of social justice,” said Paul, argues that the real divisions between France’s lengthy unemployment bene- ket economy. But in a country where the able.” the legislator. “Let’s not underestimate the main protagonists are narrower fits and protective labour contracts seating arrangements of the post-revo- Outside observers might ask how the points of discord.” than they would have their audiences could be revamped-echoing the type of lution 1789 national assembly gave serious Valls is, given that his govern- For now, Valls’ line is holding-just. A believe. But he concedes that the party reforms already long accepted by world politics the terms “left” and “right”, ment has just reneged on its latest first component of the 2015 budget can ill afford a damaging public row, German and British leftists. It all comes Socialists have yet to fully reconcile with promises to bring France’s public deficit passed through parliament last week, and risk seeing once again its candidate at a watershed moment, both for the capitalism. within EU limits and is under pressure but only narrowly, as 39 Socialists chose knocked out of the run-off for president party and for France. The Socialists are While its German and British counter- from European partners to do more to to abstain. With EU authorities yet to by the anti-immigrant National Front, as in power for the first time in a decade, parts have histories dating back over a revamp the French economy. But that pronounce on the draft, the govern- Jospin was in 2002. “A shock like that and the rest of Europe is increasingly century, France’s Parti socialiste (PS) was ignores the fact that it is precisely these ment line is that it can make no more could trigger deep disputes in the PS, alarmed that, after two years in the only founded in 1971. It has no firm two issues that are now threatening to savings, but will push through those it right up to a schism,” he warned. “I don’t Elysee Palace, Francois Hollande and his claim to a working class vote that was blow the party apart. “The fact that the has pinpointed. “We won’t back down want to have to be one who turns out allies have done little to revive the once the preserve of the Communists Left has gone all out to subjugate all because of 30 or so deputies,” Valls said. the lights here.”— Reuters

US crude exports, China slowdown add to oil market gloom: Yergin

SINGAPORE: The current glut in global oil largest oil producer. markets is likely to persist next year due to More than a dozen oil producers have slack demand and may even worsen as US joined to lobby the federal government to lawmakers look set to approve exports of reverse the 40-year-old ban on US crude the country’s booming crude production, exports, a move that supporters say would said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS create jobs and keep the energy boom CERA. alive, a spokesman for one of the compa- The dramatic fall in global oil prices - nies and a lobbyist for another one said on down around 25 percent since June - is a Friday. result of global oil markets adjusting to The export restriction was passed by surging production in the United States. Congress in the 1970s after the Arab oil “There’s definitely a surplus of geopolitical embargo caused fears of domestic oil risks today, but there’s an even larger sur- shortages. As the US oil boom of the last six plus of oil,” Yergin told Reuters yesterday years builds an excess of crude, calls have during the Singapore International Energy risen for Congress and the Obama adminis- Week. tration to relax the ban. “Unless there’s a pick-up in the world This year the US government issued economy, we’re going to continue to be in export permits for some cargoes of a light a surplus market and that’s going to weigh crude grade known as condensate, and on the price, particularly looking towards many think that full exports cannot be far spring time,” said Yergin, a well-known oil behind. The intellectual case has become historian and consultant. Concerns about so strong that there’s no rationale for (the China’s economy have also cooled oil mar- export ban),” Yergin said. Yergin says that oil kets, ending a supercycle which has kept prices in the United States at $75-$80 a bar- Brent around $100 a barrel for much of the rel will be sufficient to maintain “a pretty past four years. high momentum” of shale oil and gas pro- “The ‘China chill’ is blowing across the oil duction. industry just as it has across commodities US investment bank Goldman Sachs on CENTERVILLE: A real estate sign is seen in a community of townhomes in Centreville, Virginia. US pending home sales edged higher in markets,” Yergin said. The surplus in oil Sunday cut its price forecast for Brent and September after a decline in August.—AFP comes mainly from booming production in West Texas Intermediate by $15 each to the United States, where a ban on crude $85 a barrel and $75 a barrel, respectively. exports may be lifted next year, Yergin said, At 0728 GMT, Brent was trading up 3 US services sector growth potentially sparking further output increas- cents at $86.16 a barrel, while US oil was up es and turning the country into the world’s 16 cents at $81.17. — Reuters slows to six-month low Lithuania’s floating LNG terminal breaks Russian monopoly Pending home sales miss forecast KLAIPEDA, Lithuania: The 0.54 billion cubic metres of gas from Statoil WASHINGTON: US services sector activity looks set to moderate in the fourth quarter, Street’s consensus forecast of a 0.5 percent rise. “Independence”, a huge floating liquefied next year, about one-fifth of annual dipped to a six-month low in October, pointing down to perhaps 2.5 percent,” said Chris Contracts were up 1.0 percent compared to natural gas (LNG) terminal docked in the demand, the first alternative to Russian to some moderation in economic growth early Williamson, chief economist at Markit in September last year. “It’s hard to tell whether Lithuanian port of Klaipeda yesterday, energy giant Gazprom. in the fourth quarter. London. sales are genuinely improving at a slow pace, or becoming the first such facility to sever The EU’s energy chief described the Another report yesterday showed contracts The US government is expected to report on whether they are just moving sideways,” said Moscow’s energy grip on the Baltic states. arrival, broadcast live on the national TV, as to buy previously owned homes rebounded less Thursday that the economy expanded at a 3.0 Guy Berger, an economist at RBS in Stamford, Several hundred onlookers waving “an important milestone by Lithuania to than expected in September, an indication that percent annual pace in the third quarter, Connecticut. Lithuanian flags and an honor guard wel- diversify its gas supply sources, ensure the housing recovery remains gradual. Financial according to a Reuters survey of economists. “Still, the fall in mortgage rates over the past comed the massive white-and-blue vessel competitive gas prices and security of gas data firm Markit said its preliminary or “flash” “We should not lose sight of the fact that the month and ongoing labor market improvement measuring three football fields in length, supply” in the region. services sector Purchasing Managers Index pace of growth nevertheless remains robust, should provide a tailwind going forward.” The an AFP photographer said. “The challenges that Europe faces today slipped to 57.3 last month, the lowest reading having merely eased from very strong rates in 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell last week to its Lithuania, despite joining the EU and in terms of security of gas supply require a since April, from 58.9 in September. A reading prior months,” Williamson said. lowest level since June of last year. Mortgage NATO in 2004, has been completely quick response, and Lithuania has shown above 50 signals expansion in the vast services In a separate report, the National Association rates have declined in tandem with a sharp fall dependent upon Russia for natural gas, a how this can be delivered,” Guenther sector. of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, in US Treasury debt yields as slowing global legacy of five decades of Soviet domination Oettinger, the EU’s energy commissioner, The index, was dragged down by a decline in based on contracts signed in September, rose growth and a sharp sell-off in international which wound down in 1990. The terminal said in a statement. Lithuania, which the new business sub-index, which touched its 0.3 percent after falling 1.0 percent in August. stock markets prompted traders to push back gives Lithuania, with a population of three declared independence in 1990 after five lowest level in three months. “The October read- These contracts become sales after a month expectations for an interest rate increase by the million, the capability to import up to four decades of Kremlin rule, has repeatedly ings indicate that the pace of economic growth or two. The gain last month was below Wall Federal Reserve.— Reuters billion cubic metres of gas per year after locked horns with Gazprom, accusing it of 2015 from sources such as Norway’s Statoil. abusing its market clout to impose unfair This is well above the 2.7 billion cubic pricing. Gazprom has denied the claims. metres it bought from Russia last year, and Baltic neighbors Latvia and Estonia, which German business confidence falls to 2-year low leaves plenty of extra capacity for its Baltic are totally dependent on Russian gas, said neighbors Latvia or Estonia, analysts note. they were also considering to use the ter- FRANKFURT: Business confidence in Germany, Following an unexpected increase in the Lithuania will use the terminal to import minal for LNG imports in the future. — AFP Europe’s biggest economy, fell to the lowest lev- German purchasing managers’ index last week, el for nearly two years in October, a key survey and falling energy prices and a softening euro, showed yesterday, placing a question mark over the renewed decline in the Ifo survey-the sixth recovery in the euro-zone as a whole. monthly drop running-came as a blow, said The Ifo economic institute’s closely watched Capital Economics economist Jennifer business climate index fell to 103.2 points in McKeown. October, its lowest level since December 2012, It “suggests that the recovery is unlikely to the think-tank said in a statement. The Ifo sur- regain moment at the end of the year,” she said. vey is based on assessments by companies of “We continue to expect German GDP to rise by their current business, and the outlook for the 1.3 percent this year and 1.5 percent next. But next six months and both showed noticeable even this will not be enough to ensure a strong deterioration last month. recovery or eradicate the threat of deflation in “Assessments of the current business situa- the euro-zone as a whole and the risks are to the tion were once again less favorable than last downside,” McKeown said. ING DiBa economist CEO of Deutsche Boerse AG Reto Francioni month,” said Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn. Carsten Brzeski felt the Ifo drop suggests that “Expectations with regard to the six-month busi- “the euro-zone’s biggest economy has reached a whether the results of the ECB’s “comprehensive ness outlook continued to cloud over. The out- dangerous stage between soft spell and longer- assessment” will be enough to turn sentiment look for the German economy deteriorated once lasting almost-stagnation.” around was open to question, said Berenberg again,” Sinn said. On Sunday, the European Central Bank gave Bank economist Christian Schulz. “We expect a The sub-index measuring current business hit the large majority if euro-zone banks a clean bill stabilization before the end of the year. LONDON: Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron (right) leaves 10 Downing Street, its lowest level since April and the outlook sub- of health in a crunch new audit, aimed at elimi- Unfortunately, the October Ifo data suggest that in London, yesterday as he prepares to address the House of Commons on Britain’s index fell to the lowest level since December nating one of the key factors of uncertainty the risks to our near-term calls remains to the relations with the European Union. — AFP 2012. hanging over the single currency area. But downside,” he said. — AFP