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IRB Infrastructure (IRBINF)

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IRB Infrastructure (IRBINF) IRB Infrastructure (IRBINF) CMP: | 120 Target: | NA Target Period: NA DROPPING COVERAGE November 23, 2020 Dropping coverage… IRB Infrastructure’s (IRB) execution remains one of the weakest among peers. We note that while the construction sector got badly hit in Q1 due to national-wide lockdown owing to Covid-19 pandemic, performance of many companies recovered by September 2020 with desired level of labour Particulars availability and smoothening of raw material supply chain. IRB’s Particular Amount Update consolidated topline in Q2FY21, however, declined 35.9% YoY to | 1,123.3 Market Capitalization (| Crore) 3,992 crore. Operating margin was at 49.4%. Additionally, the company reported Net debt (| Crore) 6,253 loss of | 19.7 crore in Q2FY21 largely impacted by higher depreciation and EV (| Crore) 10,245 interest cost. Going forward, we expect an extension of muted performance 52 week H/L (|) 139 / 46 with lower contribution from the construction segment. Equity capital (| Crore) 351.5 Company Face value (|) 10.0 Order book at |12,150 crore; targeting | 5,000 crore inflows At the end of Q2FY21, IRB’s order book (OB) was at ~| 12,150 crore (2.2x TTM revenues), largely contributed by the construction segment (| 5,129 Price performance crore) and O&M job of BOT, ToT projects (| 7,035 crore). However, in contrast with industry focused asset-light EPC business, IRB’s emphasis 250 13000 remains on BOT, ToT and HAM projects wherein it is targeting ~| 5,000 200 10400 crore of order inflows in the rest of FY21. The company has also participated in the bidding process of the ToT-5 bundle. We note that order inflow will 150 7800 be crucial for the company to get maintain pre-Covid level revenues in the 100 5200 next two to three years. 50 2600 Toll collection near pre-Covid level; debt to remain elevated 0 0 The management has indicated towards pre-Covid level of toll collections Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20 May-18 May-19 May-20 across most of its BOT assets and is likely to improve with further ease of restrictions. Despite this, its net consolidated debt at the end of September IRB (LHS) Nifty Index 2020 increased to | 12,700 crore (vis-à-vis | 11,900 crore at June 2020 end), Debt is likely to increase further with its required outgo towards remaining two tranches for Mumbai-Pune ToT project (| 850 crore each; scheduled in Research Analyst Retail Equity Research Equity Retail March 2021, March 2022). The moderation in debt is expected only after FY22. Bhupendra Tiwary, CFA – [email protected] Valuation & Outlook Lokesh Kashikar While the deal with GIC, introduction of public and private InVIT in the recent [email protected] past has aided the company towards deleveraging of balance sheet, IRB’s a) Securities preference for BOT, TOT, HAM model, b) weak execution and lower visibility in construction revenues and c) debt at elevated levels remains key ICICI concern. We DROP COVERAGE on the company. Key Financial Summary (| crore) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Net Sales 3186.3 3320.3 3505.1 3549.2 2251.7 EBITDA 325.4 355.6 415.1 427.9 279.5 EBITDA Margin (%) 10.2 10.7 11.8 12.1 12.4 PAT 133.7 187.8 220.7 186.9 85.1 EPS (|) 7.8 10.9 12.9 10.9 5.0 P/E (x) 6.4 4.6 3.9 4.6 10.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 5 .9 6 .6 5 .6 5 .6 7 .1 P/B (x) 0 .6 0 .5 0 .5 0 .4 0 .4 RoE (%) 9 .0 11.3 11.8 9 .2 4 .0 RoCE (%) 13.0 10.8 9 .9 10.2 5 .8 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Result Update | IRB Infrastructure ICICI Direct Research Business Highlights Q2FY21 result snapshot: Consolidated topline during Q2FY21 declined 35.9% YoY to | 1,123.3 crore. Segment wise, revenue in the construction vertical de-grew 43.2% whereas revenue in toll division was down 12.4% YoY. Operating profit during Q2FY21 was at 49.4% (up 675 bps YoY; up 269 bps QoQ) largely aided by higher toll collections. However, the company reported loss of | 19.7 crore in Q2FY21 largely impacted by higher depreciation and interest cost. Construction segment: The operating activity in Q2FY21 was largely impacted by the disruptions caused by covid-19 with unavailability of labour and raw material at desired level. However, the management has indicated towards improved construction pace (~90% of the pre-Covid levels), and expects further pick-up with better availability of labour and smoothening of supply chain BOT projects update: Collections across its projects have witnessed 40% QoQ growth during Q2FY21 and have reached pre-Covid levels in many projects largely aided by phased relaxation in lockdown. In terms of MoM growth for IRB’s total toll portfolio, collection during September 2020 has improved to | 4.3 crore (vis-à-vis | 2.3 crore, | 3.2 crore in May 2020, August 2020). Among major projects, per day collection in Mumbai-Pune stretch has reached to | 2.8 crore in September 2020 (vis-à-vis | 1.5 crore in May 2020). Likewise, per day collection in Ahmedabad Vadodara project has reached | 1.3 crore (vis-à-vis | 0.7 crore posted in May 2020). Going forward, the management expects continuance of strong momentum in the upcoming months, with likely YoY growth in Q4FY21 Order-book and inflow guidance: At the end of September 2020, IRB’s order book position was at | 12,157 crore. Of this, EPC value in BOT, HAM projects comprise | 5,129 crore while O&M in BOT, ToT projects contributes | 7,035 crore. In terms of order inflows, the company has secured a HAM project in Q2FY21 worth | 1,760 crore (land availability and financial closure at an advance stage; expects receipt of appointed date by FY21-end. Going forward, the company is targeting | 5,000 crore of order inflows mainly from BOT, ToT and HAM projects Rights issue: The company launched a second tranche of fund raising in its private InvIT (housing nine BOT assets) amounting to | 510 crore. This is part of the total commitment of | 4,400 crore by GIC affiliates towards 49% in private InvIT Debt: Net debt at the end of September 2020 was at | 12,700 crore (net D/E: 2.3x) with cash of | 2,160 crore on the books. The management expects debt and cash, both, to remain elevated to tackle the current uncertain situation ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | IRB Infrastructure ICICI Direct Research Financial summary Exhibit 1: Profit and loss statement | crore Exhibit 2: Cash flow statement | crore (| Crore) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 (| Crore) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Net Sales 5,845.9 5,694.1 6,707.0 6,852.2 Profit after Tax 714.5 919.7 850.0 720.9 Growth (%) 0.0 -2.6 17.8 2.2 Depreciation 854.8 544.0 539.5 468.3 Direct Expenditure 2,286.7 2,396.6 3,120.0 3,252.4 Cash Flow before wc changes 3,116.6 2,740.0 2,937.3 3,028.8 Employee Expenses 272.6 291.5 286.2 287.4 Net Increase in Current Assets 302.7 9.4 167.4 107.7 Administrative Expenses 238.4 326.7 363.6 341.1 Net Increase in Current Liabilities 70.6 363.5 12.0 -35.0 Total Operating Expenditure 2,797.7 3,014.7 3,769.7 3,880.8 Net cash flow from operating activities 3,192.0 2,132.3 511.4 4,388.8 EBITDA 3,048.3 2,679.4 2,937.3 2,971.4 Growth (%) 0.0 -12.1 9.6 1.2 (Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets -2,776.3 -3,966.0 -568.2 7,978.3 Interest 1,332.7 966.7 1,120.1 1,564.4 Interest received on fixed deposits 78.2 125.5 195.6 195.0 Depreciation 854.8 544.0 539.5 468.3 Net Cash flow from Investing Activities -2,981.0 -2,621.5 417.2 4,640.4 Other Income 123.2 168.7 195.6 195.0 PBT 984.0 1,337.3 1,473.3 1,133.7 Issuance of share capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Tax 268.5 544.4 623.4 454.4 Long term borrowing proceeds 3,760.2 1,319.5 589.2 -6,753.7 PAT before MI 715.5 919.7 850.0 736.7 Repayments of Long term borrowings -1,868.5 -796.5 0.0 0.0 Minority Interest 1.0 0.0 0.0 15.8 Net Cash flow from Financing Activities -201.6 410.2 -636.1 -8,318.8 PAT 714.5 919.7 850.0 720.9 Net Cash flow 9.5 -79.0 292.5 710.4 Growth (%) 0.0 28.7 -7.6 -15.2 Opening Cash/ Cash Equivalent 1,298.8 1,346.8 1,267.8 1,560.3 EPS 21.5 27.7 25.6 21.7 Closing Cash/ Cash Equivalent 1,308.2 1,267.8 1,560.3 2,270.7 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Balance sheet | crore Exhibit 4: Key ratios (| Crore) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY21E FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Liabilities Per share data (|) Equity Capital 351.5 351.5 351.5 351.5 EPS 21.5 27.7 25.6 21.7 Securities Premium Account 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash EPS 47.2 44.0 41.8 35.8 Reserve and Surplus 4,920.2 5,341.7 5,963.7 6,331.4 BV per share 158.6 171.3 190.0 201.0 Secured Loan 12,267.1 12,038.3 14,407.6 6,458.1 Revenue per Share 175.9 171.3 201.8 206.1 Unsecured Loan 754.7 957.5 1,311.5 2,066.0 Premium Payable 15,875.6 15,581.1 13,446.9 13,888.3 Operating Ratios (%) Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA Margin 52.1 47.1 43.8 43.4 Deferred Tax Liability 0.0 14.3 32.3 2.7 PBT / Net Sales 16.8 23.5 22.0 16.5 Liability side total 44,375 34,284 35,513 29,098 PAT Margin 12.2 16.2 12.7 10.5 Assets Total Gross Block 351.9 237.8 258.5 258.2 Return Ratios (%) Less Acc.
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