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ICICI Securities Limited IRB Infrastructure (IRBINF)

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ICICI Securities Limited IRB Infrastructure (IRBINF) ICICI Securities Limited Initiating Coverage March 14, 2011 Rating Matrix Rating : Buy IRB Infrastructure (IRBINF) Target : | 216 Target Period : 12-15 months | 186 Potential Upside : 16% On the growth road… IRB Infrastructure (IRB), one of the leading players in the road space, YoY Growth (%) currently has a road BOT project portfolio of 16 projects aggregating (YoY Growth) FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E 5,735 lane km (3413 lane km are operational while the remaining are Net Sales 71.9 48.7 41.1 28.7 expected to get operational till FY14E). Once operational, IRB’s BOT EBITDA 82.7 41.8 21.1 13.7 revenues would expand 2.2x to | 1604 crore in FY14E. IRB is also Net Profit 118.9 27.8 1.9 11.9 comfortably placed in terms of funding requirement (all projects have EPS 118.9 27.8 1.9 11.9 achieved financial closure and internal accruals are more than sufficient to fund equity commitment). In the construction business, a strong and Current & target multiple financially closed captive order book provides healthy revenue visibility. FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E Given its leadership position in road development, comfortable funding P/E 16.1 12.6 12.3 11.0 Target P/E 18.6 14.6 14.3 12.8 position and strong construction division providing revenue visibility, we EV / EBITDA 10.6 8.5 8.3 8.2 are initiating coverage on IRB with a BUY recommendation and a price P/BV 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.8 target of | 216. RoNW 18.9 20.1 17.4 16.7 Leading road BOT player RoCE 12.3 13.4 11.5 10.7 IRB is one of the largest BOT toll operators with 16 projects under its portfolio covering 5,735 lane km. Out of this, 3413 lane km are Stock Data operational, generating net daily BOT collection of | 2.3 crore per day Bloomberg/Reuters Code IRB IN / IRBI.NS (highest among leading players). Once all projects get operational, we Sensex 18,439.5 anticipate IRB’s net daily BOT collection would increase to | 4.5 crore in Average volumes 1,092,253.8 FY14E translating into two fold jump in BOT revenues to | 1604 crore in Market Cap (| crore) 6,069.0 FY14 from | 721 crore in FY10. 52 week H/L 313 / 148 Equity Capital (| crore) 332.4 Comfortable funding situation Promoter's Stake (%) 75.0 IRB has achieved financial closure for all projects. In terms of equity FII Holding (%) 13.3 commitment, we believe IRB’s internal accruals from BOT and DII Holding (%) 3.4 construction division (| 3652 crore during FY11-14E) are more than sufficient to fund its equity commitment (| 2215 crore) during FY11-14E. Comparative return matrix (%) In house construction capabilities Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M IRB, through its subsidiary Modern Road Maker (MRM) undertakes in- IRB 6.3 (10.6) (37.4) (29.4) ITNL (8.6) (31.2) (43.8) house construction work. MRM currently has a strong order book of | IVRCL 10.7 (41.2) (54.7) (55.3 ) 8,986 crore, 3.6x FY11E consolidated revenues providing strong visibility. Furthermore, we derive comfort in execution as all of its BOT projects are now financially closed. Price movement 6,500 370 Valuations 340 6,000 At the CMP, the stock is quoting at 12.3x FY12 EPS and 2.1x FY12 P/BV. 310 We are initiating coverage on IRB with a BUY recommendation and price 5,500 280 target of | 216 based on SOTP valuations. We have valued IRB’s BOT 250 5,000 220 project at | 143/share (operational project – | 95/share and under 4,500 190 construction/development project – | 48/share) and construction business 160 at | 70/share (at 9x FY12 EPS). 4,000 130 Exhibit 1: Valuation Metrics 3,500 100 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E Apr-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Net Sales (| crore) 991.9 1,704.9 2,534.7 3,575.8 4,601.4 Price (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) EBITDA (| crore) 437.4 799.0 1,133.1 1,372.1 1,560.2 Net Profit (| crore) 175.8 384.9 491.9 501.1 560.8 EPS (|) 5.3 11.6 14.8 15.1 16.9 Analyst’s name P/E (x) 35.2 16.1 12.6 12.3 11.0 Deepak Purswani Price / Book (x) 3.6 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.8 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 18.6 10.6 8.5 8.3 8.2 Bhupendra Tiwary RoCE (%) 7.6 12.3 13.4 11.5 10.7 [email protected] RoNW (%) 10.2 18.9 20.1 17.4 16.7 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICIdirect.com | Equity Research ICICI Securities Limited Share holding pattern (Q3FY11) Company background Shareholders % Holding Promoters 75.0 FII 13.3 Incorporated in 1998, IRB Infrastructure (IRB) is a leading infrastructure DII 3.4 development and construction company involved predominantly in the road and highways sector. The company through its various SPVs Others 8.4 currently has a road project portfolio of 16 projects aggregating 5,735 lane km. Out of this, 3,413 lane km are operational generating net BOT Promoters and institutional holding trend (%) collection of | 2.3 crore per day, which includes the marquee project Mumbai Pune Expressway. IRB is also credited with executing India’s first 73.9 73.9 75.0 75.0 80.0 BOT project (Thane Bhiwandi Bypass). The company has 9.31% share in 60.0 the total Golden Quadrilateral length and ~6.7% in the NHDP programme. 40.0 20.5 20.5 17.0 16.7 20.0 IRB, through its wholly owned subsidiary Modern Road Makers (MRM), 0.0 predominantly carries out in-house engineering, EPC and operation & Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 maintenance work. As on Q3FY11, MRM’s order book stands at | 8986 crore, 3.6x FY11E consolidated revenues providing strong revenue Promoters Institutional investors visibility over the next couple of years. IRB also enjoys better EBITDA margins compared to its peers (24.8% in 9MFY11) on account of strong execution, ownership of a large base of construction equipment and supply of construction aggregates from its owned quarries, which are based in Maharashtra and Gujarat where most of IRB’s projects are based. Geographical break-up of road assets (%) In addition to the above, IRB through its subsidiary Aryan Infrastructure Investment Pvt Ltd (IRB’s stake – 66%) owns ~1250 acres of land bank along the Mumbai-Pune Expressway. However, given the slowdown in Karnataka the real estate industry, the company is planning development at a later 12% stage. Furthermore, IRB, through its wholly-owned subsidiary IRB Goa 5% Sindhudurg Airport Pvt Ltd is also looking to develop the Sindhudurg Airport project on a design, build, finance and operate (DBFO) basis for a Punjab 7% Maharashtra concession period of 95 years in 2009. 47% Exhibit 2: IRB road asset portfolio Rajasthan | crore Stake(%) Length (km) Project Cost Equity Debt Grants 10% Operational projects 460.8 3272.7 416.3 2856.4 0.0 Mumbai - Pune 100 206.0 1292.0 101.0 1191.0 0.0 Gujarat 19% Bharuch - Surat 100 65.0 1404.4 193.4 1211.0 0.0 Thane - Ghodbunder 100 15.0 248.5 31.9 216.6 0.0 Thane Bhiwandi 100 24.0 104.0 34.0 70.0 0.0 Pune - Nashik 100 30.0 74.0 6.0 68.0 0.0 Overall market share in GQ Pune - Solapur 100 26.0 63.0 18.0 45.0 0.0 NKT project 100 60.0 36.8 15.0 21.8 0.0 Mohol Mundurup 100 33.4 18.0 7.0 11.0 0.0 Kharpada 100 1.4 32.0 10.0 22.0 0.0 Under cons/development 788.5 8681.7 2804.8 5041.6 835.2 Amritsar Pathankot 100 102.4 1441.7 390.8 924.0 126.9 Dahisar - Surat 90 240.0 2256.0 902.4 1353.6 0.0 Jaipur - Tonk - Deoli 100 146.3 1705.7 499.7 900.0 306.0 Kolhapur IRDP 100 50.0 430.0 172.0 258.0 0.0 Talegaon Amravati 100 66.7 885.0 194.0 475.0 216.0 Tumkur Chitradurga 100 114.0 1142.0 311.0 831.0 0.0 Panaji - Goa 100 69.1 821.3 335.0 300.0 186.3 Total 1249.3 11954.4 3221.1 7898.0 835.2 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICIdirect.com | Equity Research Page 2 ICICI Securities Limited Investment Rationale Leading road BOT operator with proven track record IRB has a proven track record in road development and is one of the largest BOT toll operators with ~6.7% market share in the NHDP programme. It is accredited with executing India’s first BOT project (Thane-Bhiwandi Bypass). Currently, it has six projects under its portfolio Marquee project revenues in 9MFY11… covering 5,735 lane km. Out of this, 3413 lane km are operational generating net daily BOT collection of | 2.3 crore per day (highest among 9MFY11 Net* toll leading players). Out of this, | 1.5 crore/day is contributed by projects like Revenues (| collection / the Mumbai Pune Expressway and Surat Dahisar project (together Marquee Projects cr) day (| cr) accounted for 71% of BOT revenues in FY10). IRB also has six operational Mumbai Pune Expressway 241.4 0.9 debt free projects (| 0.3 crore daily BOT toll collection) enabling it to Surat Dahisar Project 163.9* 0.6* utilise the cash flow generation for funding other projects.
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