SEPTEMBER

17 IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin MARCH 2011

it financed by China – isn’t about to Brazil and America have found Brazil’s trade abate. common cause in curtailing China’s The narrative of “American decline” undervalued currency, the yuan. While policy: toward or “China’s rise” can easily be grafted China’s currency remains artificially onto President Rousseff’s diplomatic low, Brazil’s real has appreciated triangulation gambit. In February, Foreign Minister about 40% since 2008, yoking Brazilian Antônio Patriota outlined the direction goods with uncompetitive prices Sean Goforth of Brazil’s foreign policy, noting that abroad and at home. In February, US Professor, Coastal Carolina University, ties with China would be given elevated Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner United States status. By contrast, in March Rousseff visited Brazil, where he veiled Brazil challenged Obama to end the decade- and America’s efforts against China’s long era of Washington’s “empty managed yuan as an attempt to “work On March 20th, President Obama rhetoric” about partnership with Latin together on the global stage to build touched down in Brasília for a two- America. China has eaten the United a more balanced and more stable, day visit. While expectations of the trip States’ lunch in Latin America, and stronger multilateral economic were never high, the commencement that seems unlikely to change. system”. Rousseff’s advisors say of UN-authorized military operations But beneath the surface of Rousseff’s lobbying for a stronger yuan will be a in Libya overshadowed Obama’s time avowals of continuity with Lula’s component of her Beijing visit. in Brazil almost entirely. His public policies and omnipresent signs of Of course, in the past Brazil has remarks consisted of clarifications China’s importance to Brazil, she also criticized the US Fed for on US policy toward Libya, with some appears keenly aware that there are its quantitative easing program, interludes to address the tragedy in problems in its economic relationship but Brasilia’s loudest rebuke of Japan, and little else. with China. More than 80% of Brazilian Washington concerns agricultural President Dilma Rousseff can surely manufactured exports are being subsidies. Without reform or a grand expect more personalized attention adversely affected by competition gesture, Rousseff has shown no on her subsequent diplomatic from China, according to one study. signs that she will differ from her engagement with a world power, a Says a spokesman for FIESP, São predecessor on this score. However, trip to Beijing in April. China has been Paulo’s Industrial Federation, “the if the Obama administration could Brazil’s largest trade partner since relationship with China is important, send the right signal, a true alliance 2009, and owing to China’s apparently but from an industrial perspective, it between the US and Brazil could insatiable appetite for iron ore and is extremely negative”. Even icons of bud from their common interest in a soybeans, Brazil notched a US$5.2 Brazilian industry have fallen prey, stronger yuan. billion trade surplus with the People’s from shoemakers – who have seen Probably the most meaningful way Republic last year. Rio de Janeiro’s the number of pairs exported drop by to do this would be for Obama to improved port infrastructure and almost half since 2009 – to Rio’s bikini dismantle US agricultural subsidies, the inauguration of major transport manufacturers, who are howling over but this doesn’t seem likely anytime networks across Brazil are prominent the prevalence of Chinese thongs soon because of the sway of the farm signs that trade with China – much of strutting along Ipanema. lobby and Midwestern congressmen. IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 2

Short of that, he could pledge a free China’s currency provides a window conflict due to the old establishment trade agreement (FTA) with Brazil, for substantive US gestures that could of colonial borders, which divided but the romance around such a deal beget more systematic cooperation. ethnic groups, tribes and peoples has soured across much of Latin who always understood themselves America as the region has watched as ‘one’. The result of this imaginary the Colombia FTA linger on Capitol conflict was the disintegration of Hill for almost five years. Frankly, Quimbamba into four new countries, the White House doesn’t appear The armies namely Quiçalândia, Bengalândia, inclined to offer serious trade-related Kwanzâlandia and Muxilândia. As this concessions to Brazil. of common is the type of conflict international Still, Obama could offer Rousseff forces are supposed to intervene in, important political support. His especially in the African continent, public support for Brazil’s right to language: the importance and centrality of a seat on an expanded UN Security these military exercises is creating Council could be enormous. He gave CPLP’s Felino a new approach by providing the India such an endorsement last fall, CPLP with a peacekeeping-oriented to much fanfare in New Delhi. Doing exercises military capacity, instead of simply so would cost Obama almost nothing, following the old common language but it would buoy Brazil’s national Vasco Martins rhetoric. Nevertheless, there are a pride. To make further inroads Researcher, IPRIS few issues concerning the exercises Obama could woo Rousseff through and the broader ongoing cooperation regular contact at the highest level, The ‘Felino 2010’ military exercises that need to be addressed. wrapping cooperation around a which took place between the Firstly, it is important to understand th th theme if need be. Nicholas Gvosdev 19 and the 28 of March 2011– the true objective and finality of these hit on this recently when he proposed scheduled for 2010, but delayed for exercises. When the UN Security an “Obama-Rousseff commission” technical reasons – had the purpose Council passes a resolution allowing akin to the Obama-Medvedev of organizing the joint action of the countries or coalitions of countries commission in 2009 that attended Lusophone armed forces within the to intervene in any situation in order the “reset” between Washington ‘peace support and humanitarian to assure peace and secure human and Moscow. Wrapping such a aid operations’ framework of the life, it usually does not attribute commission around a set of issues Community of Portuguese Speaking such important responsibilities to like energy policy, counternarcotics, Countries (CPLP). The exercise is organizations which are based on and the aforementioned “multilateral inserted in the joint and combined cultural and historical aspects, but economic” issues would add meat military exercises series – the ‘Felino’ rather on military or economic groups to the talks. But it’s crucial that – developed within the framework for and unions. In this, since all troopers Obama and the likes of Secretary of technical and military cooperation come from Portuguese speaking State Clinton and Secretary Geithner between the member states of the countries, it should be expected be regularly involved. Idle talks CPLP. It has been occurring since that their actions may eventually be dominated by lower-level officials the year 2000 with the objective of focused on any of the CPLP’s member would only convey Washington’s preparing the military forces of all states. This means the armed forces antipathy. CPLP member states, hailing from of the CPLP country targeted for President Rousseff’s nascent foreign different continents, to intervene in humanitarian or peacekeeping policy suggests a closer relationship areas of crisis. intervention by the Lusophone forces with America, not out of starry-eyed This year’s exercise took place in should not take part in that same naïveté or ideology, but rather because Angola, in the Cabo Lengo province intervention, as the CPLP should not, she is crafting a more strategic trade of Bengo. It had the participation of by principle, support any faction in a policy for Brazil – triangulation. By approximately 1000 troopers, 850 of potential conflict, but rather work to reengaging America after a decade them from Angola – as the country solve the conflict and achieve peace. in which the US and Brazil spurned is hosting the event – 20 from Brazil, Since the armed forces of any country one another, Brazil is moving ever Cape Verde, Guinea-Bissau, São play a pivotal role in changing political so slightly back toward productive Tomé and Príncipe and Timor Leste, regimes and/or supporting different relations with the US as a means 21 from Mozambique and 29 from factions in an internal conflict, any of insuring against the industrial Portugal. The exercise takes place humanitarian or peacekeeping winnowing begot by cheap Chinese in a fictional context, in an imaginary intervention by the CPLP would have imports. Piecemeal cooperation country called ‘Quimbamba’, which one of its member states’ armed between Brazil and America over has been through decades of ethnic forces opposing the rest of the IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 3

Lusophone forces. This imaginary time soon, these are issues which intervention, one that would bring an yet plausible scenario would put the require constant monitoring and added value to having and keeping a entire military approach on the spot, preparation in order to address any military apparatus within the CPLP since it would sponsor divisions possible outcome. If indeed there framework. in the member states’ military was a secessionist threat in Angola, While it is still too early to analyze leadership, thus opening a path for the CPLP would be in a fairly well these concepts, it is much more other countries to either refrain from prepared position to act upon the important to define objectives, areas taking action or opting to support the issue. Yet, this potential intervention of intervention and reflect upon armed forces of the country at crisis in an improbable scenario would the political consequences. There for any political or historical reason. considerably strain the actions is much at risk if any future CPLP If one or more Lusophone countries of Angola’s central government, military intervention brings division experience internal conflict and the which would in principle contain the upon its members. UN requires the CPLP to intervene secessionist movement at all costs militarily in order to achieve peace, and use its military to undermine the consequences of such action could separatists. Again, as explained create a deep dividing line that would above, the consequences would be wreck years of political construction negative for the CPLP. and investment in the organization Finally, there is still the weight of itself. Collaboration between armed history shouldering the armies of forces is much different than cultural, the CPLP member states. During political or economic cooperation. the colonial wars, most of those Thus, this program must remain who fought against the Portuguese attentive to all possible positive and between 1961 and 1974 hold negative outcomes. leadership positions in their country’s Secondly, although Angola is the government and armed forces host country for the Felino 2010 today. Furthermore, most troopers exercises, the training scenario looks from either side have at least one fairly familiar to those who observe family member who fought in the and think about Angola’s territorial war. History always has a personal integrity. As explained above, the touch when cooperation is attempted fictional country Quimbamba was after conflict. Although many years broken into four halves due to decades have passed, the war is still fresh of ethnic conflict. This was by large in the memories of many people, a consequence of the imposition of either by first-hand experience or by colonial frontiers, agreed during the storytelling. The nationalist nature Berlin Conference of 1884/85 which of many independence movements disregarded tribal groups and ethnic and the irony of cooperating militarily boundaries. However, many African with the enemy of the past must Portuguese speaking countries always be taken into account if the still linger through these divisions, CPLP’s technical-military cooperation especially Angola. The colonial program is to have any success. border which separated the Kingdom Although this military approach is a of Kongo and some of its vassal and sound idea and, if properly addressed, neighboring kingdoms still projects a good mechanism for preventing remnants of identity and political conflict and achieving peace, there secessionism in today’s era. In the are still many nuances which require Lunda provinces, activists already careful monitoring so as to avoid demand more autonomy from the major diplomatic confrontations. central government, a claim largely Understanding exactly why, how, based on the existence of a significant and what consequences a military pre-colonial degree of autonomy. intervention by the CPLP would Hence, it might not be a coincidence carry should be the first priority that the Felino 2010 exercises are of this program. Although highly focused on matters of secessionism dependent on the political scenario, and ethnic conflict. Although Angola it is not easy to foresee a peaceful will surely not be partitioned any political outcome for such a military IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 4

A road far from finished: Timor Leste and ASEAN

Pedro Seabra IPRIS, Researcher

At the end of 2010, expectations ran high in Díli. For better contextualization of the ASEAN bid. The latest all accounts, after years of unsuccessful lobbying, the developments in this undertaking and the present accomplishment of Timor Leste’s most illusive foreign obstacles of achieving it in the medium term will then policy goal – full accession to the Association of South be evaluated, with some final remarks regarding future Eastern Nations (ASEAN) – appeared to be back again prospects surrounding the accomplishment of such a in reach for the young nation. The reason in itself goal. comprised no mystery. As Indonesia prepared to assume the rotating chairmanship of the regional organization, A foreign policy built from scratch Timor Leste swiftly understood the significant window One of the challenges that the Timorese had to deal of opportunity that it was about to be given, in order to with during the transition to sovereignty was the need decisively set the drawn out process forward. to develop a foreign policy from scratch. In that sense, That much was made clear by the Timorese leadership: between October 1999 and May 2002, with José Ramos- “If it is under Indonesia [that] Timor Leste joins Horta as Minister for Foreign Affairs, Timor Leste began ASEAN as the eleventh member at the summit in setting up not only its foreign policy but also its own Jakarta in November 2011, it would elevate Indonesia’s burgeoning diplomatic network. statesmanship, it would elevate ASEAN”, President José At a bilateral level, Australia, Indonesia and Portugal Ramos-Horta said in Singapore during a seminar held were soon identified as Timor Leste’s primary by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.1 Later partners, with Jakarta as primus inter pares. Indeed, on, Prime Minister José Alexandre ‘Xanana’ Gusmão in the aftermath of the referendum, Indonesia was followed the same line, when he declared in the III Bali immediately identified as the main priority, as it was Democracy Forum Bali that “it would be a cause for with Jakarta that Timor Leste had “a lot of issues: the great satisfaction to all Timorese if our official request to border, customs, security and trade”.3 In other words, join ASEAN is accepted during Indonesia’s presidency in the inescapable impact of geography was accepted and 2011”.2 The coordination between both officials could not incorporated from the beginning within the foreign policy have been clearer, as both emphasized the symbolism calculations. Moreover, for all purposes, Indonesia was and momentum associated with this favorable set of always bound to be a key player and assume a role of circumstances for Timor Leste’s aspirations. gatekeeper regarding the future regional integration of Consequently, on March 4th 2011, Foreign Minister Timor Leste.4 However, it was also in Díli’s best interest Zacarias Albano da Costa finally delivered in Jakarta, to balance Indonesia’s weight by keeping Australia and the formal membership application to his Indonesian Portugal involved and interested in the country’s future. counterpart, Marty Natalegawa. Understandably enough, Thus, as soon as possible, the Timorese embassies in a fresh look on Timor Leste’s desire to join ASEAN Canberra, Jakarta and Lisbon were among the first ones thus becomes necessary. This article will therefore to be operational. begin with a brief overview of the country’s nascent On the other hand, the hierarchy of donors and foreign policy – including its preferential bilateral peacekeepers, especially under the United Nations partners and multilateral venues – thus allowing for a transitional administration, was also not forgotten. For

1 “East Timor leader pushes for ASEAN membership” (Agence France-Presse, 1 3 Mark Dodd, “Dili’s biggest embassy to be in Jakarta” (Sydney Morning Herald, December 2010). 16 February 2001). 2 “East Timor hopes to gain ASEAN membership under RI’s presidency” (Antara, 4 See Anthony Smith, “Constraints and Choices: East Timor as Foreign Policy 9 December 2010). Actor” (New Zealand Journal of Asian Studies, Vol. 7, no. 1, 2005): 15-36. IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 5

example, the US, Japan, China and the European Union the inescapability of institutionalizing the relations with (EU) all received equal initial focus, as their development Australia under some regular basis. Moreover, having to aid funds and generous loans were considered crucial formally select an enduring and specific geographically to the sustainability of the recent nation. Moreover, distinct endeavor to join inevitably implied some difficult important regional contributors with boots on the decisions, and therefore the evaluation of the costs and ground for the initial peacekeeping missions in Timor benefits associated with each and every option was Leste, like Malaysia for instances, were granted a similar found to be absolutely necessary. Curiously enough, then level of interest from the start. Overall, these countries transitional Foreign Minister José Ramos-Horta was and partners inevitably constituted Timor’s immediate in favor of this option, even though he did not exclude bilateral priorities and consequently, institutional efforts preferential ties with the Southeast Asian neighbors.5 and resources were allocated But given that ASEAN did not to establish and/or reinforce allow shared membership with official ties. In the aftermath of the other regional institutions, On a multilateral level, referendum, Indonesia Timor Leste had to inevitably the first crucial objective settle this dilemma of choosing was the UN. Indeed, Timor was immediately between affiliating the country Leste’s self-determination either the Southeast Asia or the would be meaningless identified as the main Pacific region.6 if not accompanied by On the other hand, Indonesia full integration into the priority. The inescapable also helped shuffle the deck international community, of options when President and therefore accession to impact of geography Abdurrahman Wahid put the organization’s structural was accepted and forward, in late 2000, the ill-fated micro-universe as its 191st proposal to create a West Pacific state member, on September incorporated from Forum (WPF), which would have 27th 2002, was naturally put brought in both Indonesia and on a fast track. Likewise, the beginning within Australia, together with New on August 1st 2002, Timor Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Leste also became a formal the foreign policy the Philippines and naturally member of the Community Timor Leste.7 However, the of Portuguese-Speaking calculations. Moreover, impracticality of such a vision as Countries (CPLP), seeking to for all purposes, well as the lack of widespread deepen the Lusophone ties interest in developing, yet again, that allowed for an alternative Indonesia was always another regional organization, international insertion soon prevented it from ever framework. But as expected, bound to be a key player taking off. Timor Leste also needed Be that as it may, as soon to take a good look at the and assume a role of as Timor Leste became fully surrounding region, for the independent, the country’s new choice of which institutional gatekeeper regarding foreign policy goals were made vehicle to join would surely the future regional abundantly clear. By ignoring mark the country’s own the other options at the table, foreign policy path for years integration of Timor ASEAN would then officially to come. become the main target of At the time, the choice was Leste. Timor Leste’s external efforts. not as clear as one would A widespread and enduring have expected. Although ASEAN remained the most campaign towards the accomplishment of this objective successful regional integration project in that part of soon began to gain pace. the globe, in the initial stages of Timor’s transition, the possibility of joining instead another multilateral institution, the Australian-led Pacific Islands Forum – formerly known as South PacificF orum –, was insistently floated around by local policymakers. An inherent 5 “Ramos-Horts wants East Timor to join South Pacific Forum” (Radio Australia, distrust of ASEAN’s decade-long complicity with the 27 July 1999). brutal Indonesian rule over the Timorese population 6 See Carlos Gaspar, “Timor entre a Ásia e o Pacifico” (Janus, 2002). provided some grounds to this argument, along with 7 Kalinga Seneviratne, “East Timor: Nation-to-be goes from euphoria to pragmatism” (IPS, 28 December, 2000). IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 6

The long road to ASEAN the process, the final communiqué of the 39th Ministerial The confirmation that Timor Leste sought to refocus its Meeting in Kuala Lumpur in 2006 constituted another attention on seeking ASEAN membership rather than letdown, as it gave a sense of widespread hesitancy, when any other regional integration project was reflected merely agreeing “to Timor Leste’s participation, where by Ramos-Horta himself, in the days leading up to appropriate, in functional areas of ASEAN activities”.11 independence. Indeed, in December 2000, he stated Nevertheless, Timor Leste was not backing down easily. that ASEAN would “be the primary foreign policy goal For example, in 2005 it had already succeed in becoming of the future government” and that the organization was a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum, a wider “important for the future of East Timor, not so much as multilateral dialogue mechanism in the Asian Pacific an economic umbrella because we know that there are region that provided Timorese authorities with a first economic difficulties within the ASEAN countries, but insight into a hectic regional framework. Furthermore, as a means to attain security”.8 Indeed, the underlining Timor also quickly moved on to sign the Treaty of Amity notion that Timor Leste and Cooperation in Southeast perceived its ASEAN bid as Extremely cautious Asia on January 13th 2007, thus a prerequisite to its own pledging to renounce the use of security is quite significant reactions and vague force and binding the country in this process, specially to a non-interference posture since it provides a clear and tokens of support were in the internal affairs of ASEAN official assumption that the member states. All in all, regional context was in itself given out, reflecting a although not entirely conditional nothing but essential in the to a full-blown membership, pursuit of Timor Leste’s own region wary of further these steps were seen as development path, at the time enlargements without Timor’s way of expressing a still plagued by uncertain steady commitment towards leftovers from the transition the prior tackling of eventually reaching the desired period that threatened to status, and in that sense jeopardize its own stability. structural flaws that served the purpose of keeping However, such enthusiasm its ‘campaign’ alive among its in quickly becoming a part were very much in regional peers. of ASEAN was not entirely Another crucial factor to shared by the existing evidence in Timor Leste’s take into consideration was members. Extremely cautious incipient society and the required development of reactions and vague tokens bilateral relations between of support were given out, that threatened to derail Timor Leste and all ASEAN reflecting a region wary of members. If at first glance that further enlargements without ASEAN’s own integration ought to be no problem for a the prior tackling of structural nation fully committed to such flaws that were very much process. a regional project, having to in evidence in Timor Leste’s ‘forcibly’ engage with Myanmar incipient society and that threatened to derail ASEAN’s was for all purposes and for a substantial amount of own integration process.9 In that order, the following time, a difficult obstacle to overcome. Indeed, Timor years failed to provide any serious development in the Leste’s political leadership long enjoyed a tradition of accomplishment of this goal, in part also due to Timor actively sympathizing with the struggle of the National Leste’s internal constraints as it struggled to build a League for Democracy (NLD) and its leader, Nobel fresh state apparatus from the ground and grappled Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, while never with persistent economic and social challenges. abstaining from showcasing its support in international Timor’s regional participation was then resumed to an fora. However, given the need to engage with the region un-declared Observer status, with attendance of the as whole, a more toned-down and constructive approach organization’s multiple meetings resulting from the towards Myanmar’s military junta was soon demanded formal classification of “guest of the ASEAN chairman”.10 by the remaining ASEAN members to effectively advance Moreover, despite the country’s best efforts to reignite Timor’s bid, and a normalization of ties between the two countries thus began to take place. 8  José Ramos Horta, “East Timor and the Region” (Trends in Southeast Asia, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, January 2001). 9 “Asean reticent over East Timor” (BBC News, 21 May 2002). 10 “E. Timor wants higher status in ASEAN, but group says not yet” (Kyodo, 24 11 Joint Communiqué of the 39th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) (ASEAN, 25 July 2006). July 2006). IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 7

Furthermore, the expansion of Timor’s diplomatic much as possible when this grouping becomes a single representations to Bangkok and Manilla also added free trade bloc as the ASEAN Economic Community in further arguments to the country’s regional bid, which 2015.14 then led to stronger assumptions that Timor Leste In such a context, there is a growing perception that an would eventually be able to join ASEAN in 2011-2012.12 eventual Timorese accession would significantly cut the But with the years passing by, it was clear that goodwill odds of this process as the country would automatically and small political gestures would simply not be enough become one of the poorest members of the region, with to move Timor’s candidacy forward as many doubts a subsequent need for greater attention and focus that remained in the minds of could inevitably compromise regional policymakers. any political-economic agenda that ASEAN might have in the The hurdles along the way ASEAN already comprises coming years.15 In all fairness, the regional a dense network of Moreover, ASEAN already uneasiness towards Timor comprises a dense network Leste’s ultimate ambition obligations and mandatory of obligations and mandatory is not without its fair legislation which has to be share of reasons. Firstly, legislation which has to be adopted by every member ASEAN still bears in mind state. However, as of mid- the past experience of adopted by every member 2010, Ramos-Horta was previous accessions to the candid enough to admit that organization’s initial core state. Fears that Timor “no more than probably 50 per of member states. Formed Leste might drag behind in cent of the legislative criteria in 1967 by Indonesia, are in place” with Timor Leste Malaysia, the Philippines, this matter and eventually “way behind readiness in Singapore and Thailand, terms of legislative work to the organization would seek out some sort of conform to ASEAN legislation eventually welcome Brunei on issues such as migration, Darussalam in 1984, temporary exemptions are customs, security”.16 Fears followed by the ‘nineties that the country might drag group’, including Vietnam in not without substance, behind in this matter and 1995, Laos and Myanmar in with the added problem eventually seek out some 1997 and finally Cambodia sort of temporary exemptions in 1999. But a decade later, that other members could are therefore not without it is widely understood that substance, with the added the integration process ask for such exceptions problem that other members of this particular last set could ask for such exceptions of new members did not too due to domestic too due to domestic political go that smoothly and is pressures, thus complicating still far from over. For political pressures, thus ASEAN’s integration ambitions all purposes, the visible complicating ASEAN’s even further.17 disparities between each Another particular issue country’s economy and integration ambitions even also lies with Timor Leste’s social progress inevitably present human resources led to its effectiveness further. capability to cope with the being undermined, while frenetic level of meetings that including members such as Myanmar – “an albatross 13 around ASEAN’s neck” – had serious repercussions 14 Thanida Tansubhapol, “E. Timor hopes to be 11th member bid to join ASEAN” on its international legitimacy. Trying to regain some (Bangkok Post, 1 March 2011). momentum, ASEAN is now officially putting all its energy, 15 Even though the Asian Development Bank foresees an estimated double-digit growth of 10% in both 2011 and 2012, it also warns that “longer-term prospects including financial and human resources, into reducing rest on using government investment to build human and physical capital and the economic and developmental gaps between the old to trigger a transition to private sector–led growth”, thus underlining some of the challenges that the country’s economic growth and development are and new members in order to even out the disparity as bound to face in the coming years. See “Asian Development Outlook 2011 (ADO 2011)” (Asian Development Bank, 2011): pp. 230-232. 16 Shefali Rekhi, “Timor Leste behind in bid to join Asean” (Strait Times, 17 July 12 East Timor Needs Five Years to Join ASEAN: PM (AFP, 27 July 2006). 2010). 13 Barry Desker, “Time for Asean to stand its ground” (Strait Times, 23 June 17 Barry Wain, “Timor Leste’s Bid to Join Asean Faces Objections” (Strait Times, 2010). 10 March 2011). IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 8

a regional organization of this kind requires. Indeed, Leste still might find that its candidacy does not yet have estimates of around 300 summits and minor meetings the required consensus. every year are enough to exhaust the current members’ diplomatic corps, let alone Timor Leste who has not Conclusion even established diplomatic representation in all ASEAN Since 2002, Timor Leste has undoubtedly walked a capitals. long road in terms of achieving its foreign agenda. Amid all this, Myanmar has since changed its leading More so if one takes into account the visible structural opposition stance. Gestures like the donation of shortcomings that were always bound to reflect on the US$500.000 to the victims of the country’s goals of widespread Nargis cyclone that hit the region international insertion, good and Timor Leste’s less public Given the formal regional neighborhood and foreign policy calibrations have nurturing of preferential relations certainly helped to downgrade steps recently taken, with both Australia and Indonesia. any official objections on Hence, against all odds but with Myanmar’s part.18 However, the it is worth asking many varying degrees of success main objections now appear to what makes 2011 so and its fair share of critics,20 it is come from Singapore, a country safe to say that Timor Leste is now frequently courted by Timor different from the in a position to claim a relatively Leste for the last few years stable position in its targeted and with whom it consistently past seven years, international context, with one sought to develop a fruitful notable exception: it’s long lasting bilateral relationship. The fact entitling Timor Leste ambition to join ASEAN. that Singapore – often touted as a In truth, its present undefined role model for Timor Leste’s own to a more favorable status is not really the result of a development path – is apparently outcome? In one lack of Timorese effort or political not entirely on board with this will to advance this issue to a fruitful enterprise, speaks volumes simple word: Indonesia. conclusion. The multiple visits by on Timor’s latest diplomatic Timor Leste’s leadership to the endeavors throughout the region. As it happens, Timor surrounding countries – designed Indeed, on May 2010, Ramos- to actively shore up the necessary Horta confidently remarked that Leste’s “policy of support while showcasing the Timor had recently secured the potential associated with including support of Vietnam, Thailand, appeasement” towards a 11th new member – figured Cambodia and Singapore, its former ruler and prominently and constantly high in combined with previous local discourse and in that sense, endorsements by Indonesia, inescapable neighbor ASEAN membership was always Malaysia, Myanmar and the consensually understood as the Philippines.19 Eight out of ten has contributed to ultimate foreign goal by the local ASEAN members undoubtedly political class. From a Timorese allowed for a certain degree of steady political- point of view, the country played optimism. But as recent reports it nice, following the rules of appear to indicate, the cited economic bilateral engagement that the organization pledges of support may lack ties, with direct itself delineated, patiently awaiting some substance in the short- a better timetable to decisively term. In other words, they surely consequences on the push the matter forward. amount in theory to a growing But given the formal steps recently wave of approval for the Timorese country’s ASEAN bid. taken, it is worth asking what ambitions – reflecting generalized makes 2011 so different from the sympathy for the inclusion of one past seven years, entitling Timor of the world’s youngest nations into its fold – but when Leste to a more favorable outcome? In one simple it comes down to a necessary consensual vote, Timor word: Indonesia. As it happens, Timor Leste’s “policy of appeasement” towards its former ruler and inescapable

18 See Simon Roughneen, “Timor-Leste: Choosing Between ASEAN and neighbor has contributed to steady political-economic Burmese Reform?” (Irrawaddy, 13 February 2010) and “East Timor keen to join ASEAN during Indonesian presidency” (DPA, 1 December 2010). 19 “Timor-Leste has support of most ASEAN member countries to join the bloc: 20 See Pedro Seabra, “Timor Leste: the struggle for a balanced foreign policy” president” (Xinhua, 1 May 2010). (IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin, No.9, July 2010): 4-8. IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 9

bilateral ties, with direct consequences on the country’s ASEAN bid.21 Indeed, hearing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono state that “Indonesia is fully in support of Timor Leste’s becoming member of ASEAN” undoubtedly confirms the transformation ofT imor Leste’s repressive foe into its most adamant and expressive advocate within ASEAN.22 Still, a question remains: will this be enough? Presently, Timor Leste is keen on the symbolism of opening formal accession negotiations while Indonesia holds the chair of ASEAN meetings during 2011. It would clearly send a message of full reconciliation to the entire region, but it would also leave the final decision on the membership status to a later date. Ramos-Horta, again, appeared to foresee this scenario by declaring “that more important is that we join now and then have a five- year period whereby we take steps, with ASEAN support, to fulfill any obligations, criteria that are still missing at the time”.23 A step-by-step approach some could say, although already within ASEAN’s structure. Nevertheless, despite the apparent feasibility of such a plan – yet to be tested or fully endorsed, for that matter – Timor Leste knows all too well, by past experience in dealing with ASEAN member states, that much is still undecided. Delivering the formal application was an important act by itself but it will be meaningless if Timor is not able to effectively present its case in a way as to placate some widespread doubts and provide a clear framework for future integration. Hence, for all purposes, Timor Leste’s road towards full ASEAN membership is, most definitely, still far from finished.

21 See Dionisio Pereira, “East Timor’s policy of appeasement towards Indonesia” (On Line Opinion, 14 April 2009). 22 “Indonesia to Help Timor Leste Join ASEAN” (VIVAnews, 9 December 2010). 23 “East Timor to Join Asean in Jakarta 2011” (Agence France-Press, 1 December 2010). IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 10

Timeline of Events

was unable to hide its anxiety during the whole 17 March (New York): Angola episode. The UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict 7 March (Luanda): Margot Wallström called on Angola and the 1 March (Luanda): In an interview to Agence France-Press, Chinese DRC to investigate allegations of sexual In the run-up for the March 7th demonstration, ambassador to Angola, Zhang Bolun gave the violence and adopt measures to prevent them, several government and MPLA members first official estimate of Chinese lending to which should be done through “constructive started to warn against participation in the Angola. The Export-Import Bank of China, the dialogue and cooperation with the Congolese rally. Interior Minister Sebastião Martins stated Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and authorities”. he would not tolerate public disorder. the China Development Bank have credited the remarkable sum of US$14.5 billion to the 17-18 March (Luanda): 1-5 March (Luanda): country since the end of the civil war in 2002. Guinea-Conakry and Angola held their Bilateral An African Development Bank (AfDB) mission Commission meeting. Among other topics, visited Angola led by its administrator 10 March (Luanda): officials agreed on a defense and security Tombwele Pedro, to monitor the Bank’s According to the newspaper Jornal de Angola, cooperation framework. projects in the country. Since 2000, the AfDB under the Technical-Military Agreement, has granted Angola US$120 million. Angola will send a military mission to Guinea- 19-21 March (Bissau): Bissau until the end of March. An Angolan delegation, led by Defense Minister 2 March (Luanda): Cândido Pereira Van-Dúnem, visited Guinea- UNITA, the Catholic Church and MPLA stated 10 March (Caracas): Bissau and met President Malam Bacai Sanhá, they would not join the March 7th demonstration. Venezuela’s Oil Company PDVSA formally Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Júnior and The MPLA, through its Secretary General Julião signed a contract to create Venangocupet, Defense Minister Aristides Ocante da Silva. The Mateus Paulo ‘Dino Matross’, warned against an oil production joint venture, with Angola’s visit was framed under the Technical-Military the “reiterated attempts to incite anarchy, Sonangol and Cuba’s Cuba Petroleo. Agreement between the two countries and was disobedience, violence and subversion”. intended to officially launch “Missang/GB”l the 10 March (Luanda): Angolan support mission to the country with 5 March (Luanda): Speaker for the National Assembly António around 200 military and police personnel, on The MPLA promoted a “grand patriotic march Kassoma praised and encouraged the March 21st. for peace” nationwide. According to pro- cooperation ties with the EU through the ACP government media, one million participated framework. EU chargé d’affaires in Luanda 22 March (Luanda): in the demonstration intended to support the Rober Alder pointed out that, since 1985, the In an almost complete U-turn on Ivory Coast, ruling party and President José Eduardo dos EU has disbursed some 2480 million to Angola. Foreign Affairs Minister George Chicoty stated Santos, who has ruled Angola since 1979. that although Angola continues to support In a clear electoral mood ahead of the 2012 10-11 March (Luanda): dialogue to solve the crisis, Angola would align scheduled elections, it focused on the ongoing The UN Secretary-General’s Special itself with the African Union’s position. national reconstruction process. Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict Margot Wallström visited Luanda to discuss 22-23 March (Luanda): 6 March (Luanda): with Foreign Affairs Minister George Chicoty Chinese Vice-Prime Minister Wang Qishan paid During the night, around 17 people were the rape allegations related to immigrant an official visit to Angola to strengthen bilateral detained by the police ahead of the March deportations to the DRC. Chicoty refuted these ties between the two countries. Qishan met with 7th demonstration. Among them were three claims, while stating that deportation of illegal Foreign Affairs Minister George Chicoty, Vice- reporters from the newspaper Novo Jornal. immigrants will continue, under bilateral President Fernando da Piedade dos Santos The authorities seem to have overreacted agreements with the DRC and UN supervision. ‘Nandó’ and President José Eduardo dos against the possibility of a protest rally which Santos. During the visit, several cooperation was never taken seriously by the major actors 14-16 March (Luanda): accords were signed in economic and technical of Angolan political and civil life. The detainees Gambian Foreign Affairs Minister Mamadou areas. One of the goals will be to establish the were released within the day and declared they Tangara paid an official visit to Angola. He was China-Angola Bilateral Commission in the near had not been maltreated, only questioned received by his Angolan counterpart George future. about their reasons for “rebelling against the Chicoty, with whom he reviewed bilateral system”. cooperation ties. 29 March (Luanda): UNITA Secretary-General and National 7 March (Luanda): 16 March (Luanda): Assembly deputy Abílio Kamalata Numa As expected, the demonstration, which The government and the World Bank signed a declared that UNITA would call for an anti- intended to mirror the recent events in the Arab US$81.7 million loan to finance development government protest. World, was a total failure. However, the MPLA projects. IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 11

29 March (Luanda): 8 March (New Delhi): 22 March (Rio de Janeiro): Canadian military attaché to Angola Colonel Foreign Minister Antônio Patriota returned President Dilma Rousseff reaffirmed her Richard Milot praised the role of the country’s to India to preside over the 3rd Meeting of the country’s view that a reformed UN Security Armed Forces in promoting stability in the Brazil-India Strategic Dialogue along with Council without Brazil is inconceivable. As region and in Africa. India’s National Security Advisor Shivshankar such “there will not be a reformed UN Council Menon, and attend the 7th Meeting of the without some important countries such as 29 March (Brussels): Ministerial Joint Commission of the India- India and Brazil”, she said. Angolan Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) Dialogue. Manuel Augusto attended the consultations 24 March (Geneva): between the EU and Guinea-Bissau, established 9 March (Doha): For the first time ever in 10 years, Brazil voted by Article 96 of the Cotonou Agreement. Foreign Minister Antônio Patriota travelled to in favor of a resolution authorizing a special Qatar where he met with Emir Sheikh Hamad rapporteur to investigate possible human 30 March (Lubango): Bin Khalifa al Thani, and Prime Minister and rights abuses in Iran. Angolan Armed Forces Chief of Staff General Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Geraldo Sachipengo ‘Nunda’defended the Bin Jabr Al-Thani, seeking to enhance bilateral 25 March (La Paz): need for an urgent overhaul and reform of the relations between the two countries. Foreign Minister Antônio Patriota met with country’s military force. his Bolivian counterpart David Choquehuanca 10 March (Montevideo): to discuss border issues, food production, Defense Minister Nelson Jobim met with his energetic integration and the fight against counterparts from Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, drugs. Paraguay and Uruguay – Rubén Saavedra Brazil Soto, Andrés Allamand, Javier Ponce Cevallos, 29-30 March (Coimbra): Cecilio Pérez Bordón and Luis Rosadilla President Dilma Rousseff attended former 2-5 March (Brasília): respectively – as well as with Argentinean President Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva’s honoris Timorese Prime Minister José Alexandre Foreign Minister Héctor Timerman and causa degree ceremony. Nevertheless, Roussef ‘Xanana’ Gusmão met with President Dilma Uruguayan Foreign Minister Luis Almagro, had to cut the visit short after the death of Rousseff to assess and reinforce the ongoing on a meeting of Southern Cone countries that former Vice-President José Alencar. bilateral relations, particularly in education, are part of the United Nations Peacekeeping defense and security. Mission in Haiti. 30 March (Brasília): Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr 3-4 March (Beijing): 11 March (Quito): Støre and Environemnt and International Foreign Minister Antônio Patriota travelled to Secretary-General of External Relations Development Minister Erik Solheim met China where he met with Vice-Prime Minister Ruy Nunes Pinto Nogueira attended the with Foreign Minister Antônio Patriota and Xi Jinping, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and Extraordinary Meeting of the Unasul Council signed a memorandum on bilateral political Commerce Minister Chen Deming. Bilateral of Foreign Ministers, celebrating the entry consultations. relations – such as trade, investment or into force of Unasul’s Constitutive Treaty and scientific-technological cooperation – as well laying down the first cornerstone for the 30 March (Brasília): as President Dilma Rousseff’s upcoming visit Organization’s headquarters. According to a study presented by the Brazil- to China for the BRIC summit were high on the China Business Council (CEBC), investments agenda. 14 March (São Paulo): by Chinese companies in Brazil exceeded Uruguayan President José Mujica, accompanied US$29.5 billion in 2010. 3 March (Brasília): by a vast entourage of businessmen and Official figures were released pointing to a 7.5% governmental officials – including Foreign 31 March (Brasília): growth for the Brazilian economy in 2010, the Minister Luis Almagro – travelled to São Paulo, Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lene Espersen fastest pace in the last 24 years. seeking to enhance bilateral economic ties. met with her counterpart Antônio Patriota, in Mujica and Almagro later met with Foreign order to sign a cooperation agreement covering 5 March (New Delhi): Minister Antônio Patriota. economy, trade, energy, climate change and Foreign Minister Antônio Patriota met with political consultations. his Indian counterpart S. M. Krishna to review 19-20 March (Brasília): bilateral relations between the two countries in US President Barack Obama met with 31 March (Brasília): areas such as energy, agriculture, science and President Dilma Rousseff, seeking to lay a The UN Secretary-General’s Special technology, education, culture and defense. new path of constructive bilateral relations. Representative for Guinea-Bissau Joseph Underlining such a will, several agreements Mutaboba met with Foreign Minister Antônio 7 March (Colombo): were signed regarding economic and scientific- Patriota seeking to collect support for the Foreign Minister Antônio Patriota paid the technological cooperation, although high- ongoing international effort of stabilizing first visit by a Brazilian Foreign Minister to Sri profile issues such as Brazil’s aspiration to Guinea-Bissau’s volatile internal situation. Lanka, where he met with his counterpart G. the UN Security Council were also addressed, L. Peiris and President Mahindra Rajapaksa. despite Obama’s lack of full endorsement. Reinforcing bilateral ties was high on the agenda. IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 12

31 March (Praia): Reform (SSR) process is currently suspended Cape Verde Former Head of Parliament Aristides Lima for evaluation, he showed total support for announced his independent candidacy for the Angola’s mission. 6 March (Praia): upcoming presidential elections. The main opposition party, MpD, has formally 23 March (Bissau): thrown its weight behind the independent President Malam Bacai Sanhá received US candidacy of former Foreign Minister Jorge Ambassador Marcia Bernicat, who is based in Carlos Fonseca, for the upcoming presidential Dakar, to whom he declared his opposition to elections. Guinea-Bissau the intervention in Libya.

10 March (Praia): 1 March (Bissau): 23-26 March (Abuja): President Pedro Pires formally inaugurated Two years have passed since the assassinations President Malam Bacai Sanhá attended the Prime Minister José Maria Neves for a third of then-President João Bernardo ‘Nino’ Vieira 39th ECOWAS Heads of State and Government executive term, following the PAICV’s win in the and Armed Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Tagme Summit, which was dominated by talks on the February legislative elections. Na Waie. Although current President Malam situation in Ivory Coast. The Summit approved Bacai Sanhá and Attorney-General Amine Saad a US$63 million support fund to Guinea-Bissau 11 March (Praia): promised a judicial investigation and a fair trial, – Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan PAICV’s Basílio Ramos was formally chosen as to this date there have been no results. stated that ECOWAS must actively support the President of Cape Verde’s National Assembly. implementation of the SSR in the country. 9 March (Bissau): 14 March (Praia): President Malam Bacai Sanhá received a 24-25 March (Bissau): After a meeting of the PAICV’s National Council, delegation from the Communist Party of China, Portuguese Secretary of State for Foreign the party decided to endorse Manuel Inocêncio headed by the Central Committee’s Head of Affairs and Cooperation João Gomes Cravinho Sousa – current Minister for Infrastructures, the International Department, Wang Jiarui. met with Guinean authorities seeking to Transports and Telecommunications – as On the occasion, the President showed his evaluate bilateral relations and assess the its presidential candidate for the upcoming gratitude for China’s support to Guinea-Bissau, situation on the ground, on the eve of an EU elections in 2011. expressed his wish for a greater cooperation review of its relationship with Guinea-Bissau. with China and stated he would recognize the 18 March (Praia): one-China policy. 29 March (Brussels): Prime Minister José Maria Neves presented The EU opened consultations with Guinea- his revamped cabinet including new Foreign 17 March (Bissau): Bissau as envisaged by Article 96 of the Minister Jorge Borges and new Secretary of An IMF mission led by Paulo Drummond met Cotonou Agreement. Prime Minister Carlos State for Foreign Affairs José Luis Rocha. with Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Júnior. Gomes Júnior headed the Bissau-Guinean Former ambassador to Spain Jorge Tolentino delegation. He highlighted the effort made by was appointed as Defense Minister. 19-21 March (Bissau): his government in the last two years to reform An Angolan delegation led by Defense Minister and build international credibility. Angolan 23-25 March (Abuja): Cândido Pereira Van-Dúnem, met President Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Manuel President Pedro Pires and Foreign Minister Malam Bacai Sanhá, Prime Minister Carlos Augusto also attended these consultations, Jorge Borges attended the 39th ECOWAS Gomes Júnior and Defense Minister Aristides as well as representatives from the CPLP, Heads of State and Government Summit. The Ocante da Silva. The visit was framed under the the AU and ECOWAS. In the end, Guinea- ongoing crisis in Ivory Coast and Cape Verde’s Technical-Military Agreement between the two Bissau managed to avoid further EU sanctions, candidacy to the ECOWAS presidency were high countries and was intended to officially launch although it had to promise to restructure the on the agenda. “Missang/GB” – the Angolan support mission Armed Force’s top commanders, conclude to the country involving around 200 military and judicial investigations in an independent and 26 March (Addis Ababa): police personnel. fair manner and pursue the Security Sector The African Union formally appointed Cape Reform. The EU will now ask for a chronogram Verde’s former Foreign Minister as the 21 March (Bissau): for the implementation of these measures. organization’s mediator for the current impasse President Malam Bacai Sanhá officially in Ivory Coast. However, although his name launched, alongside Angolan Defense Minister was accepted by incumbent President Laurent Cândido Van-Dúnem, the Angolan “Missang/ Gbagbo, the winner of last year’s presidential GB” mission in the country. Armed Forces Chief elections, Alassane Ouattara, refused to do so of Staff António Indjai – a central figure in the Mozambique April 1st incidents –pledged his “full support” to alleging that José Brito’s “personal ties” with 1 March (Maputo): Gbagbo made him partial in this matter. the Angolan mission. President Armando Guebuza met with Andrew Mayock, the Millennium Challenge Corporation 30 March (Lisbon): 21 March (Bissau): (MCC) Deputy Vice President for Compact President Pedro Pires attended former Portuguese Ambassador in Bissau António Implementation, who reaffirmed the desire Brazilian President Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva’s Ricoca Freire recognized Angola’s deep to work with the Mozambican government on honoris causa ceremony at the University of commitment and effort to support Guinea- initiatives to alleviate poverty. Current programs Coimbra. Bissau. Although the diplomat recalled that Portugal’s assistance to the Security Sector are budgeted at US$506.7 million although only 7% has been disbursed since 2008. IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 13

1-3 March (Maputo): General Phung Quang Thanh and President 8 March (Brussels): Defense Minister Filipe Nyusi welcomed his Nguyen Minh Triet, seeking to enhance bilateral Deputy Permanent Representative of Portugal Portuguese counterpart, Augusto Santos cooperation. to the EU Ambassador Ana Paula Zacarias was Silva, seeking to further reinforce bilateral ties appointed by High Representative Catherine under the framework of the Technical-Military 27-29 March (New Delhi): Ashton as Head of the EU Delegation to Brazil. Cooperation agreements. Prime Minister Aires Ali attended the VII CII- EXIM Bank conclave on India-Africa Project 9 March (Lisbon): 3-4 March (Paris): Partnership, seeking to benefit from improved President Aníbal Cavaco Silva was inaugurated President Armando Guebuza travelled to bilateral ties and attract Indian businessmen for his second term in office, after his electoral France to attend the V Extractive Industries to his country. Indian Trade Minister Anand win on January 23rd. Transparency Initiative (EITI) Conference. Sharma announced a new credit line for Guebuza also took he opportunity to later meet Mozambique worth US$20 million and 9 March (Lisbon): with French Cooperation Minister Henri de promises were made by India’s Export-Import Foreign Minister Luís Amado met with Raincourt. Bank to speed up the process of providing Mohamed Tahir Siala, personal envoy of Libyan funds related to the US$500 million credit line leader Muammar Gaddafi. Amado announced 9 March (Maputo): opened to Mozambique to fund development that he had had a similar meeting with Finnish ambassador to Mozambique Kari projects. representatives of the rebel-backed Libyan Alanko announced that under a recent National Council. agreement, his country will donate 221 million 31 March (Livingstone): to be handed over as direct Budgetary Aid in the President Armando Guebuza attended a 10 March (Brussels): 2011-2013 period in equal yearly amounts. meeting of the SADC Troika on Politics, Defense Foreign Minister Luís Amado attended the and Security, together with his Zambian and extraordinary EU Foreign Affairs Council with 15 March (Maputo): South African counterparts. All three leaders the situation in Libya high on the agenda, Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai subsequently called for an extraordinary and was keen to prepare the upcoming met with President Armando Guebuza, seeking SADC Heads of State and Government Summit extraordinary European Council. his support to establish a SADC-backed plan in May, in order to discuss the situations in for new elections amid difficulties within the Madagascar and Zimbabwe. 10 March (Tunis): country’s coalition government. Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and Cooperation João Gomes Cravinho addressed 15-17 March (Maputo): the closing session of the Seminar on British Undersecretary of State for International Democratic Transitions with a focus on Tunisia. Development Stephen O’Brien met with several Portugal Cravinho also took the opportunity to meet government officials and announced that 1-3 March (Maputo): with senior Tunisian politicians, including British aid to Mozambique will rise to US$137 with Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Defense Minister Augusto Santos Silva travelled million a year as of 2013. Radhouane Nouicer. The transition process in to Mozambique where he reviewed Portuguese Tunisia, the situation in the Maghreb and the efforts under the framework for the bilateral 17 March (Maputo): Middle East and EU-Tunisia relations were high Technical-Military Cooperation agreements President Armando Guebuza and Foreign on the agenda. with his local counterpart, Filipe Nyusi. Minister Oldemiro Balói welcomed Portuguese Foreign Minister Luís Amado. Reviewing 10-11 March (Brussels): 2 March (Berlin): bilateral relations and preparing for the 1st Defense Minister Augusto Santos Silva Prime Minister José Sócrates, accompanied by high-level official summit between the two attended a NATO ministerial meeting, where Finance Minister Francisco Teixeira dos Santos countries were high on the agenda. the situation in Libya and the possibility of an and Secretary of State for European Affairs allied military intervention were high on the Pedro Lourtie, met with German Chancellor 17 March (Mbabane): agenda. Angela Merkel to discuss a reinforcement of President Armando Guebuza travelled to economic governance within the EU. Sócrates Swaziland, where he met with King Mswati 11 March (Brussels): also had the opportunity to meet briefly with III, seeking to enhance bilateral relations and Prime Minister José Sócrates attended a Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann, with the pursue a joint path of peace, stability and social special European Summit on developments same issues on the agenda. well being in the region. in the Mediterranean, with particular focus 3 March (Lisbon): on the growing unrest in Libya. Later on, 18 March (Maputo): he took part of the extraordinary European Secretary of State for European Affairs Pedro Japanese ambassador Susumo Segawa, and Council of leaders from the Eurozone, after Lourtie met with Turkish Minister for European Minister for Industry and Trade Armando his government announced a fresh package of Affairs Egemen Bagis, with Turkey’s accession Inroga, signed a new deal under which Japan austerity measures. Among the steps adopted, process to the EU and bilateral relations high will donate rice to Mozambique valued at the bailout fund was increased, interest rates in on the agenda. Bagis also had the opportunity US$10 million. Greece were lowered and it was announced that to meet with Foreign Minister Luís Amado, and the bailout fund may buy bonds directly from with Speaker of Parliament Jaime Gama. 23-27 March (Hanoi): governments in exceptional circumstances Defense Minister Filipe Nyusi travelled to but only if those countries agree to further Vietnam, where he met with his counterpart austerity measures. IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 14

11-12 March (Budapest): package put forward by the government to Foreign Minister Luís Amado attended the appease international markets and convince São Tomé Informal Meeting of EU Foreign Ministers European authorities. Consequently, Prime (Gymnich), with the Southern Neighborhood, Minister José Sócrates presented his and Príncipe Libya and the follow-up of the extraordinary resignation to President Aníbal Cavaco Silva. European Council meeting on this topic high on 3 March (São Tomé): 23-24 March (Praia): the agenda. After meeting with Prime Minister Patrice Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and Trovoada, US Ambassador to São Tomé and Cooperation João Gomes Cravinho met with 14-15 March (Washington DC): Príncipe Eric Benjaminson expressed his officials from the recently appointed cabinet Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and government’s willingness to financially support and inaugurated local projects supported by Cooperation João Gomes Cravinho held the upcoming presidential elections in the Portuguese cooperation funds. meetings with National Security Council archipelago as well as send observers to officials and with Assistant Secretary of State monitor results on the ground. for African Affairs Johnnie Carson. The UN 24 March (Lisbon): Security Council, Ivory Coast, Sudan, Guinea- Foreign Minister Luís Amado met with his 11 March (São Tomé): Georgian counterpart Grigol Vashadze seeking Bissau, drug trafficking in West Africa as well Former Prime Minister Maria das Neves to enhance bilateral relations between the two as issues related to Angola and Mozambique announced that she would run as a presidential countries. were high on the agenda. candidate in the upcoming elections. 24-25 March (Brussels): 16-17 March (New York): 12 March (São Tomé): Caretaker Prime Minister José Sócrates Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and After the signing of a new deal between attended the European Council, where Cooperation João Gomes Cravinho held several Taiwanese ambassador John Chen and São Portugal’s latest political instability figured meetings with UN officials, including with the Tomé and Príncipe’s Finance Minister Américo high on the agenda. UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative Ramos, Taiwan is set to disburse US$15 million for Peacekeeping Operations and former Head on local projects in 2011 alone. of UNMIT in Timor Leste Atul Khare, and with 24-25 March (Bissau): UN Undersecretary-General for Political Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and 12-16 March (São Tomé): Cooperation João Gomes Cravinho met with Affairs Lynn Pascoe. Afterwards, Gomes São Tomé and Príncipe hosted the 32nd meeting Bissau-Guinean authorities seeking to evaluate Cravinho also met with CPLP ambassadors and of the UN Permanent Advisory Committee bilateral relations and assess the situation on with Permanent Representatives of ECOWAS on security issued in Central Africa, with the the ground, on the eve of a EU review of its members to the UN. attendance of high-level authorities from the relationship with Guinea-Bissau. ten state members of the Economic Community 17-18 March (Maputo): of Central African States (EECAS). A common 29 March (London): Foreign Minister Luís Amado met with sub-regional position under the São Tomé Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and President Armando Guebuza and his local Declaration was adopted regarding upcoming Cooperation João Gomes Cravinho attended counterpart Oldemiro Balói in preparation negotiations over an international arms trade st the international meeting over the situation in for the 1 Portuguese-Mozambican bilateral treaty. summit to be held in Portugal during the first Libya, where the need for Muammar Gaddafi to semester. resign was reaffirmed. 28 March (São Tomé): World Bank representative Monica Sawyer 29-30 March (Coimbra): 21 March (Brussels): announced that the organization would grant Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff attended Foreign Minister Luís Amado attended the EU’s US$6.2 million in financial aid to SãoT omé and former President Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva’s Foreign Affairs and General Affairs Council Príncipe to boost the national budgets in 2011 honoris causa ceremony. However, her trip meetings and met with European Council and 2012. President Herman van Rompuy. was cut short due to the death of former Vice- President José Alencar. 22-23 March (Belgrade): Foreign Minister Luís Amado paid an official 30 March (Washington DC): visit to Serbia where he met with several high Defense Minister Augusto Santos Silva met Timor Leste with US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. authorities, including Prime Minister Mirko 2-5 March (Brasilia): Cvetkovic, Deputy Prime Minister Bozidar Portuguese efforts in Afghanistan, the situation Prime Minister José Alexandre ‘Xanana’ Djelic, Speaker of Parliament Slavica Djukic- in Libya and the reform of NATO’s military Gusmão met with President Dilma Rousseff. Dejanovic, Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic and commands were high on the agenda. Bilateral relations and the reinforcement of Defense Minister Dragan Sutanovac. The cooperation between the two countries were reinforcement of bilateral ties, Serbia-EU 31 March (Lisbon): high on the agenda. relations and the situation in Kosovo were high President Aníbal Cavaco Silva formally accepted Prime Minister José Sócrates’ resignation, on the agenda. 4 March (Jakarta): dissolved the Parliament and called for snap Foreign Minister Zacarias da Costa met with 23 March (Lisbon): legislative elections on June 5th. his Indonesian counterpart Marty Natalegawa The Portuguese parliamentary opposition and President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. consensually rejected the latest austerity Costa took this opportunity to formally request IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 15

Timor Leste’s accession to the Association of Furthermore, Indonesia’s support for Timor Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN), a move fully Leste’s candidacy to ASEAN and the former’s endorsed by the Indonesian officials. intention to purchase Indonesian-made fast patrolling boats, worth US$20 million, were 7 March (London): also high on the agenda. Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão attended a G7+ Forum meeting, which brought to the 27 March (Díli): table several states and regions in precarious During an official ceremony celebrating the 11th or fragile situations. Gusmão also took the anniversary of the national police force (PNTL), opportunity to meet with British Secretary of the UN Integrated Mission in Timor Leste State for International Development Andrew (UNMIT) formally handed over policing duties Mitchell. to the PNTL, which will be now fully responsible for maintaining law and order nationwide, with 7-10 March (Díli): the UN forces in a supporting role. European Commissioner for Development Andris Piebalgs, together with President José 29 March (Bali): Ramos-Horta, announced a package of four Vice-Foreign Minister Alberto Carlos strategic programs worth US$54 million to represented Timor Leste at the Bali Process help Timor Leste achieve stable democracy ministerial forum, after expressing his doubts and sustainable development. over the need to address the Australian-backed asylum-processing center in such a meeting. 10 March (Díli): According to statements provided to The 29-31 March (Phnom Penh): Australian newspaper, Timor Leste’s Chief President José Ramos-Horta, accompanied by Petroleum Negotiator, Francisco da Costa Minister of Commerce, Tourism and Industry Monteiro, said the Timorese government Gil da Costa Alves, met with Prime Minister would take into account “all consequences” of Hun Sen, King Norodom Sihamoni, President ensuring Sunrise gas was piped to Timor Leste, of the Senate Chea Sim and President of the “even be it a breaking-up of the treaty”. National Assembly Heng Samrin. Cambodia’s support to Timor Leste’s ASEAN ambitions 11 March (Díli): and possible cooperation in oil and natural gas During an interview with Portuguese radio extraction were high on the agenda. Rádio Renascença, President José Ramos- Horta suggested setting up an alliance with 31 March (Suva): Angola and Brazil to acquire Portugal’s Foreign Minister Zacarias da Costa attended sovereign debt bonds at less than the current the summit of the Melanesian Spearhead Group market interest rate. as an observer, where Fijian leader Frank Bainimarama assumed the chairmanship. 21-26 March (Jakarta): Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão, accompanied by Foreign Minister Zacarias da Costa, met with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Several memorandums of understanding were signed.

Editor | Paulo Gorjão assistant editorS | Kai Thaler • Laura Tereno • Pedro Seabra DESIGN | Atelier Teresa Cardoso Bastos PRINTING | Europress

Portuguese Institute of International Relations and Security (IPRIS) Rua Vitorino Nemésio, 5 - 1750-306 Lisboa PORTUGAL http://www.ipris.org email: [email protected]

IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin is a publication of IPRIS. The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of IPRIS. IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 16