Iprislusophone Countries Bulletin

SEPTEMBER 17 IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin MARCH 2011 it financed by China – isn’t about to Brazil and America have found Brazil’s trade abate. common cause in curtailing China’s The narrative of “American decline” undervalued currency, the yuan. While policy: toward or “China’s rise” can easily be grafted China’s currency remains artificially onto President Rousseff’s diplomatic low, Brazil’s real has appreciated triangulation gambit. In February, Foreign Minister about 40% since 2008, yoking Brazilian Antônio Patriota outlined the direction goods with uncompetitive prices SEAN GOFORTH of Brazil’s foreign policy, noting that abroad and at home. In February, US Professor, Coastal Carolina University, ties with China would be given elevated Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner United States status. By contrast, in March Rousseff visited Brazil, where he veiled Brazil challenged Obama to end the decade- and America’s efforts against China’s long era of Washington’s “empty managed yuan as an attempt to “work On March 20th, President Obama rhetoric” about partnership with Latin together on the global stage to build touched down in Brasília for a two- America. China has eaten the United a more balanced and more stable, day visit. While expectations of the trip States’ lunch in Latin America, and stronger multilateral economic were never high, the commencement that seems unlikely to change. system”. Rousseff’s advisors say of UN-authorized military operations But beneath the surface of Rousseff’s lobbying for a stronger yuan will be a in Libya overshadowed Obama’s time avowals of continuity with Lula’s component of her Beijing visit. in Brazil almost entirely. His public policies and omnipresent signs of Of course, in the past Brazil has remarks consisted of clarifications China’s importance to Brazil, she also criticized the US Fed for on US policy toward Libya, with some appears keenly aware that there are its quantitative easing program, interludes to address the tragedy in problems in its economic relationship but Brasilia’s loudest rebuke of Japan, and little else. with China. More than 80% of Brazilian Washington concerns agricultural President Dilma Rousseff can surely manufactured exports are being subsidies. Without reform or a grand expect more personalized attention adversely affected by competition gesture, Rousseff has shown no on her subsequent diplomatic from China, according to one study. signs that she will differ from her engagement with a world power, a Says a spokesman for FIESP, São predecessor on this score. However, trip to Beijing in April. China has been Paulo’s Industrial Federation, “the if the Obama administration could Brazil’s largest trade partner since relationship with China is important, send the right signal, a true alliance 2009, and owing to China’s apparently but from an industrial perspective, it between the US and Brazil could insatiable appetite for iron ore and is extremely negative”. Even icons of bud from their common interest in a soybeans, Brazil notched a US$5.2 Brazilian industry have fallen prey, stronger yuan. billion trade surplus with the People’s from shoemakers – who have seen Probably the most meaningful way Republic last year. Rio de Janeiro’s the number of pairs exported drop by to do this would be for Obama to improved port infrastructure and almost half since 2009 – to Rio’s bikini dismantle US agricultural subsidies, the inauguration of major transport manufacturers, who are howling over but this doesn’t seem likely anytime networks across Brazil are prominent the prevalence of Chinese thongs soon because of the sway of the farm signs that trade with China – much of strutting along Ipanema. lobby and Midwestern congressmen. IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 2 Short of that, he could pledge a free China’s currency provides a window conflict due to the old establishment trade agreement (FTA) with Brazil, for substantive US gestures that could of colonial borders, which divided but the romance around such a deal beget more systematic cooperation. ethnic groups, tribes and peoples has soured across much of Latin who always understood themselves America as the region has watched as ‘one’. The result of this imaginary the Colombia FTA linger on Capitol conflict was the disintegration of Hill for almost five years. Frankly, Quimbamba into four new countries, the White House doesn’t appear The armies namely Quiçalândia, Bengalândia, inclined to offer serious trade-related Kwanzâlandia and Muxilândia. As this concessions to Brazil. of common is the type of conflict international Still, Obama could offer Rousseff forces are supposed to intervene in, important political support. His especially in the African continent, public support for Brazil’s right to language: the importance and centrality of a seat on an expanded UN Security these military exercises is creating Council could be enormous. He gave CPLP’s Felino a new approach by providing the India such an endorsement last fall, CPLP with a peacekeeping-oriented to much fanfare in New Delhi. Doing exercises military capacity, instead of simply so would cost Obama almost nothing, following the old common language but it would buoy Brazil’s national VASCO MARTINS rhetoric. Nevertheless, there are a pride. To make further inroads Researcher, IPRIS few issues concerning the exercises Obama could woo Rousseff through and the broader ongoing cooperation regular contact at the highest level, The ‘Felino 2010’ military exercises that need to be addressed. wrapping cooperation around a which took place between the Firstly, it is important to understand th th theme if need be. Nicholas Gvosdev 19 and the 28 of March 2011– the true objective and finality of these hit on this recently when he proposed scheduled for 2010, but delayed for exercises. When the UN Security an “Obama-Rousseff commission” technical reasons – had the purpose Council passes a resolution allowing akin to the Obama-Medvedev of organizing the joint action of the countries or coalitions of countries commission in 2009 that attended Lusophone armed forces within the to intervene in any situation in order the “reset” between Washington ‘peace support and humanitarian to assure peace and secure human and Moscow. Wrapping such a aid operations’ framework of the life, it usually does not attribute commission around a set of issues Community of Portuguese Speaking such important responsibilities to like energy policy, counternarcotics, Countries (CPLP). The exercise is organizations which are based on and the aforementioned “multilateral inserted in the joint and combined cultural and historical aspects, but economic” issues would add meat military exercises series – the ‘Felino’ rather on military or economic groups to the talks. But it’s crucial that – developed within the framework for and unions. In this, since all troopers Obama and the likes of Secretary of technical and military cooperation come from Portuguese speaking State Clinton and Secretary Geithner between the member states of the countries, it should be expected be regularly involved. Idle talks CPLP. It has been occurring since that their actions may eventually be dominated by lower-level officials the year 2000 with the objective of focused on any of the CPLP’s member would only convey Washington’s preparing the military forces of all states. This means the armed forces antipathy. CPLP member states, hailing from of the CPLP country targeted for President Rousseff’s nascent foreign different continents, to intervene in humanitarian or peacekeeping policy suggests a closer relationship areas of crisis. intervention by the Lusophone forces with America, not out of starry-eyed This year’s exercise took place in should not take part in that same naïveté or ideology, but rather because Angola, in the Cabo Lengo province intervention, as the CPLP should not, she is crafting a more strategic trade of Bengo. It had the participation of by principle, support any faction in a policy for Brazil – triangulation. By approximately 1000 troopers, 850 of potential conflict, but rather work to reengaging America after a decade them from Angola – as the country solve the conflict and achieve peace. in which the US and Brazil spurned is hosting the event – 20 from Brazil, Since the armed forces of any country one another, Brazil is moving ever Cape Verde, Guinea-Bissau, São play a pivotal role in changing political so slightly back toward productive Tomé and Príncipe and Timor Leste, regimes and/or supporting different relations with the US as a means 21 from Mozambique and 29 from factions in an internal conflict, any of insuring against the industrial Portugal. The exercise takes place humanitarian or peacekeeping winnowing begot by cheap Chinese in a fictional context, in an imaginary intervention by the CPLP would have imports. Piecemeal cooperation country called ‘Quimbamba’, which one of its member states’ armed between Brazil and America over has been through decades of ethnic forces opposing the rest of the IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 3 Lusophone forces. This imaginary time soon, these are issues which intervention, one that would bring an yet plausible scenario would put the require constant monitoring and added value to having and keeping a entire military approach on the spot, preparation in order to address any military apparatus within the CPLP since it would sponsor divisions possible outcome. If indeed there framework. in the member states’ military was a secessionist threat in Angola, While it is still too early to analyze leadership, thus opening a path for the CPLP would be in a fairly well these concepts, it is much more other countries to either refrain from prepared position to act upon the important to define objectives, areas taking action or opting to support the issue. Yet, this potential intervention of intervention and reflect upon armed forces of the country at crisis in an improbable scenario would the political consequences. There for any political or historical reason.

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