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ReportNo. 15808-MOR Kingdom of Morocco Impact Evaluation Report Public Disclosure Authorized Socioeconomic Influence of Rural Roacds FoL:ulth High\vav\ Project [ oarn 2254-N( )PR June28, 1996 (iperition El%sEEalLation1 De)artnmen1t Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Currency Equivalents Currency Unit = Dirham (Dh) US$1 = 8.63 Dh Abbreviations and Acronyms douars Hamlet or section of a larger village DRCR Directorate of Road and Road Traffic GDP Gross Domestic Product HDM Highway Design Model MLSS Morocco Living Standards Survey MPW Ministry of Public Works qx 100 Kilograms SUNABEL Sugar Factory VOC Vehicle Operating Costs The WorldBank Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. Officeof the Director-General Operations Evaluation June 28, 1996 MEMORANDUlM TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS AND THE PRESIDENT SUBJECT: Impact Evaluation Report on Morocco Socioeconomic Influence of Rural Roads Fourth Highway Project (Loan 2254-MOR) Attached is the Impact Evaluation Report (IER) on the Morocco Fourth Highway project (Loan 2254, approved in FY83). The main objective of the impact evaluation was to understand the impact of rural roads, five to ten years after completion of the improvements carried out under the project. The study focused on impacts on: (i) transport infrastructure and services; (ii) agriculture; (iii) social services; and (iv) the environment. The impact study also assessed the economic benefits of the improvements and their sustainability. The study focused on four of the ten rural roads improved under the project; the sample roads were geographically distributed in the North, Center and Center-South of the country to represent a variety of climate, agricultural, and economic conditions. The study was conducted during 1995. The impact study compared present conditions in the areas of project roads to the situation prior to the improvements, and to conditions in comparison roads located nearby and which were not subject to improvements during the project period. The study's main finding is that the benefits of paving rural roads extend considerably beyond making traffic easier, lowering the cost of operating cars, trucks and other vehicles, and improving the quality of transport services. The extended benefits include triggering major changes in the agricultural economy, including higher outputs; transformation of the agricultural output mix, for example, from low-value cereals to high-value fruit orchards; increased use of modern inputs, especially fertilizers. Improved access to health and education facilities increased enrollment rates in rural education as well as frequency of visits to health care services, and allowed to recruit professional personnel to staff schools and health facilities. The biggest impact was on girls' enrollment in primary education, which more than trebled in the project zones during the study period. Women also benefited as the existence of paved roads sharply increased the affordability of butane for cooking and heating, dramatically reducing women's daily chores for the collection of fuelwood. In preparing the IER, surveys were conducted at the household and village levels, followed by focus groups in each of the villages covered by the study. In January 1996, as part of the preparation of the study's final report, an OED mission, together with personnel from the Ministry of Public Works, attended meetings in the road areas which included local officials from all economic sectors as well as elected, county-level representatives. These meetings were essential to interpret data and draw conclusions. The study also showed that economic benefits were substantial, resulting in satisfactory economic returns, and that the investments were not premature. The transport, agriculture, and social impacts are likely to be sustainable. Attachment 1 Contents Preface ................................................... 3 Evaluation Summary ................................................... 5 1. The Project and the Socioeconomic Setting ................................................... 9 Fourth Roads Project: Rural Roads Component ................................................... 9 2. Study Methodology ................................................... 11 Hypotheses for Testing ................................................... 11 Selection of Project and Control Roads .................................................. 12 Characteristics of the Roads (Map IBRD 27809) .................................................. 12 Comparison Between Project and Control Zones and Over Time .......................................... 14 Other Methodological Aspects .................................................. 15 3. Impact on Transport Infrastructure and Services .................................................. 17 Rationale for the Impact .................................................. 15 Key Features of Morocco's Road Transport System .................................................. 17 Road Conditions Before the Project.................................................. 18 Main Findings .................................................. 18 Traffic: National Trends .................................................. 18 Traffic: Project Roads .................................................. 19 Transport Costs and Services .................................................. 19 Motorization .................................................. 20 Improved Access to Market and Services .................................................. 21 Household Transport Expenditures.................................................. 22 4. Impact on Agriculture .................................................. 23 Rationale for the Impact .................................................. 23 Key Features of the Sector .................................................. 23 Main Findings .................................................. 24 Other Related Economic Impacts.................................................. 27 5. Impact on Social Services .................................................. 29 Rationale for the Impact.................................................. 29 Accessibility to Social Services.................................................. 29 Education .................................................. 29 Key Features of the Sector.................................................. 29 Main Findings .................................................. 30 This report was prepared by Mr. Hernan Levy (Task Manager), in collaboration with Mrs. Claudine Voyadzis (Consultant) with input by Mr. Claudio Volonte (Consultant). Mrs. Maryvonne Mauprivez provided administrative assistance. Local consultants-Morocco Trade and Development Services (MTDS)-prepared an interim assessment. The report was issued by the Infrastructure and Energy Division (Mr. Yves Albouy, Chief), of the Operations Evaluation Department (Mr. Francisco Aguirre-Sacasa, Director). 2 Health .......................................................... 33 Key Features of the Sector.......................................................... 33 Main Findings .......................................................... 33 Impact on Women .......................................................... 36 Rationale for the Impact .......................................................... 36 Gender Indicators: A National Perspective .......................................................... 36 Main Findings .......................................................... 37 Other Impacts .......................................................... 38 6. Impact on the Environment .......................................................... 41 Expected Impacts .......................................................... 41 Main findings .......................................................... 41 Types of Impacts .......................................................... 41 7. Economic Analysis .......................................................... 45 Economic Analysis at Project Appraisal .......................................................... 45 Findings of Importance to Economic Analysis .......................................................... 45 Project Benefits .......................................................... 46 Traffic .......................................................... 46 Design of Rural Roads.......................................................... 49 8. Sustainability of the Impacts .......................................................... 51 The Roads .......................................................... 51 The Socioeconomic Impacts .......................................................... 52 9. Conclusions and Recommendations .......................................................... 55 Conclusions .......................................................... 55 Recommendations .......................................................... 57 Annexes A. Study Hypotheses .......................................................... 59 B. National Trends in Agriculture, Roads, Health, and Education.............................................. 61 C. Study Methodology .......................................................... 65 D. Survey Results Aggregated by Region, Project and Control Zones, 1985-1995.................... 68 E. Calculation of Agricultural Value-Added, Northern Region (Chefchaouen) ......................... 80 F. Economic Analysis of Road Improvements .........................................................
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