Map of Zimbabwe

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Cahora Bassa 28 Lusaka 30 32 Dam 34 ° ° Zumbo ° ° Kafue bezi Z Kafue am Cahora am Z Kanyemba b Mazabuka Albufeira de Bassa è Namwala z ZIMBABWE Cahora Bassa e 16° Chirundu 16° Monze Makuti i n MOZAMBIQUE Tete a Kariba y ZAMBIA n Kariba Dam u H MASHONALAND LakeKariba Centenary Mount Darwin Mulobezi Choma Karoi Mhangura Changara S e a o n CENTRAL z Z a a y MASHONALAND a M m Kalomo ti Zave b Kildonan Bindura Shamva e WEST z Masuku i Siabuwa TMutoko Glendale S Sesheke Maamba Chinhoyi A E D Kazungula Binga N Lake Harare A NAMIBIA Livingstone Manyame L obe Kasane Victoria A Ch M 18 ti Falls L. N 18 °n Victoria Falls Gokwe u Chitungwiza O Marondera Catandica ° ya ny Nyanga in Matetsi at Chegutu H L Kachikau Kamativi i S G Sengwa wa Kadoma A Hwange yi Rusape Pandamatenga Dahlia MHwedza Dete (Gwayi River Farms) Nyazura i S z hang d ani S O a Kwekwe v Lupane e Manica Redcliff Chivhu MIDLANDS Mutare MATABELELAND Mvuma Chimoio MANICALAND Lago R Eastnor Gweru Chicamba io NORTH M Hot Springs G Inyati Shurugwi w u BOTSWANA t Gutu a i y R r i i Chimanimani u k Nata n w Glenclova d i e Dombé Bulawayo 20 Birchenough i 20 ° Masvingo Chipinge z ° Nata Esigodini Lake Bridge u Zvishavane B Mutirikwi Rio e Plumtree v National capital a Espungabera S Provincial capital Mosetse MASVINGO Town, village Makgadikgadi Pan Antelope Gwanda Nandi Mill Major airport Mine Triangle S International boundary h West Nicholson Chiredzi Francistown a s R Provincial boundary h Rutenga u e n MATABELELAND Mbizi d U e Main road m E z U ZIMBABWE SOUTH in Makado Secondary road g IQ w M B a a Railroad n n M i is Thuli i A Z O 0 50 100 150 km Selebi-Pikwe Beitbridge M 22 Malvernia ° Limpopo Messina 0 50 100 mi o The boundaries and names shown and the designations op Limp SOUTH AFRICA used on this map do not imply official endorsement or 26° 28° acceptance by the United Nations. Map No. 4210 Rev. 2 UNITED NATIONS Department of Field Support December 2017 Geospatial Information Section (formerly Cartographic Section).

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Forecasting Tourists Arrivals at Chinhoyi Caves Recreational Park in Zimbabwe Using SARIMA Model
International Tourism and Hospitality Journal 1(2): 1-10 (2018) Print ISSN: 2616-518X Online ISSN: 2616-4701 RPA ITHJ Journals International Tourism and Hospitality Journal Journal Homepage: https://rpajournals.com/ithj Forecasting Tourists Arrivals at Chinhoyi Caves Recreational Park in Zimbabwe Using SARIMA Model Tendai Makoni*1, Delson Chikobvu2 Bongani Maphosa3 Great Zimbabwe University, Zimbabwe1,3 University of the Free State, South Africa2 Abstract Forecasting tourist arrivals and volatility for Chinhoyi Caves Recreational Parks using SARIMA-GARCH models are vital for decision and planning purposes. The monthly data from the Zimbabwe Parks and Wildlife Management Authority (ZIMPARKS) for the period January 2010 to December 2016 was used. The time series plot indicated mixed fluctuations in tourist arrivals and exhibited seasonality. The series became stationary after a logarithmic transformation and a seasonal difference. The Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion was used in selecting the best model and a SARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 model fitted well to the data. The residuals of the model confirmed to all tests. Accuracy measures like the mean absolute error (MAE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) supported the model and an out of sample for the next 24 months (2017 to 2018) were done. From the forecasts, an increase in tourist arrivals was noted. The results imply the need for enough accommodation facilities in and around the recreational centre. Keywords: Tourist arrivals, ARIMA models, SARIMA models, time series plot 1 *Corresponding author: Tendai Makoni ; Email: [email protected] Submission Date: 9 June 2018 Acceptance Date: 17 June 2018 Introduction Forecasting is a key tool for planning and decision-making in modern business organisations, according to Thoplan (2014).
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Zimbabwean Government Gazette, 8Th February, 1985 103
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