LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Monday, April 19, 2021

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Monday, April 19, 2021

BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk Will U.S.-Northern Raúl Castro Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, Grubhub Confirms Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Triangle Talks Lead Departure as JPMorgan Chase & Co. Party Leader Paula Cifuentes Director of Economic & Fiscal Affairs, to Good Results? Raúl Castro confirmed at the Latin America & Canada, opening of the Cuban Communist Philip Morris International Party’s eighth congress that he Marlene Fernández is stepping down as the party’s Corporate Vice President for leader. Government Relations, Arcos Dorados (McDonald’s) Page 2 Peter Hakim President Emeritus, BUSINESS Inter-American Dialogue Donna Hrinak Lithium Miners Senior VP, Corporate Affairs, Royal Caribbean Group With Argentina Jon E. Huenemann Projects Eye Council Member, GLG Inc. $3 Billion Merger James R. Jones Australia’s Orocobre has agreed to Chairman, Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei (at head of table) met April 5 with members of a Monarch Global Strategies buy rival miner Galaxy Resources, U.S. delegation in Guatemala City. // File Photo: @DrGiammattei via Twitter. both of which have projects in Craig A. Kelly Senior Director, Americas Argentina, in a $3 billion all-stock Int’l Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil The U.S. special envoy to the so-called “Northern Triangle” deal. John Maisto countries, Ricardo Zúñiga, met earlier this month with top Page 3 Director, U.S. Education Finance Group officials in Guatemala and El Salvador to discuss immigra- Nicolás Mariscal Q tion as the Biden administration is grappling with an influx POLITICAL Chairman, Grupo Marhnos of migrants attempting to cross the southern U.S. border. At the same Mexico’s López Thomas F. McLarty III time, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris spoke by phone with Mexico’s Obrador to Seek Chairman, McLarty Associates president as the U.S. administration is reportedly seeking to “surge hu- Immigration Deal Beatrice Rangel manitarian assistance” to Central American countries. What did Zúñiga Mexican President Andrés Manuel Director, accomplish on his visit to the region? What should any new U.S. assis- López Obrador said he plans to AMLA Consulting LLC tance consist of? How effectively is the Biden administration handling propose a regional agreement on Jaana Remes migration to the United States. He Partner, the swell of migrants at the border? McKinsey Global Institute said the plan would create one Ernesto Revilla million jobs. Head of Latin American Ernesto Muyshondt, mayor of San Salvador: “During his Page 2 Economics, Citi Gustavo Roosen visit, Ricardo Zúñiga met with representatives of the private President, sector, civil society and international organizations, as well IESA Andrés Rozental as journalists, who presented the main challenges that hinder President, Rozental & A El Salvador’s development. He also reiterated the U.S. commitment to the Asociados development and exercise of a free press as a basis to guarantee democ- Shelly Shetty Managing Director, Sovereigns racy. Zúñiga also held meetings that allowed him to learn about the condi- Fitch Ratings tions of migrants, the main causes of irregular migration and the support given to returnees by El Salvador’s government. U.S assistance should support local economic growth and should also help strengthen the rule of law and the role of institutions through accountability, transparency, ac- cess to public information and the fight against corruption. Additionally, López Obrador // File Photo: Mexi- U.S. assistance should involve strategies for dealing with unaccompanied can Government. Continued on page 2

POLITICAL NEWS Party meeting side by side, the AP reported. NEWS BRIEFS Castro’s departure marks the first time in more Raúl Castro Confirms than six decades that neither he nor his brother Brazil Needs $10 Billion to Fidel, who died in 2016, would be in a formal Achieve Net-Zero Carbon Departure as Party leadership role in Cuba. The change comes as the Covid-19 pandemic and restrictions put Emissions by 2050: Salles Leader in Cuba in place by the administration of former U.S. Brazilian Environment Minister Ricardo Salles President Donald Trump have battered Cuba’s said Brazil needs $10 billion in foreign aid Raúl Castro on Friday confirmed that he is economy. per year in order to achieve net-zero carbon stepping down as head of Cuba’s Communist emissions by 2050, a decade ahead of its Party, the Associated Press reported. Castro, Mexico’s López initial plan of 2060, Reuters reported Friday. 89, made the announcement at the opening of His comments came as Brazil is in talks for a the party’s eighth congress and said he was Obrador to Seek separate potential agreement with the United retiring having fulfilled his mission and “confi- States to raise funds to fight surging deforesta- dent in the future of the fatherland.” He added, Immigration Deal tion in the country’s Amazon rain forest. Salles “Nothing, nothing, nothing is forcing me to told the wire service he did not expect a deal make this decision ... As long as I live, I will be Mexican President Andres Manuel López to be announced at this week’s U.S. Earth Day ready with my foot in the stirrup to defend the Obrador said he is planning to propose a summit, adding that negotiations with the U.S. homeland, the revolution and socialism with regional agreement on migration to the United administration would continue. more force than ever.” In his speech, Castro States this week, including the expansion of praised Miguel Díaz-Canel, who succeeded him a tree-planting program to Central America, as Cuba’s president in 2018, saying he has built Bloomberg News reported. López Obrador said Venezuelan High Court a good team, The Wall Street Journal reported. he would make the proposal to U.S. President Díaz-Canel is expected to formally succeed Joe Biden at a climate-change summit sched- Orders Newspaper to Pay Castro as the Cuban Communist Party’s leader. uled for this Thursday. The Mexican president $13 Mn to Party Official Castro and Díaz-Canel entered the Communist said the plan would create more than one Venezuela’s Supreme Court has ordered FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 newspaper El Nacional to pay top socialist party official Diosdado Cabello $13 million in a minors and helping to prevent violence. The Unfortunately, self-serving ‘coyotes’ have defamation case, EFE reported Saturday. Cabel- Biden administration’s measures relating hijacked the Biden administration’s more lo sued the newspaper in 2015 after it reprinted to migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border have lenient messaging and have used it to dupe a report from Spanish newspaper ABC saying a humanistic approach, among them the families and individuals to migrate. In the that U.S. authorities were investigating Cabello decree for the reunification of migrant fam- case of Guatemala, the U.S. delegation’s in connection with drug trafficking. ilies separated at the border, the permanent visit was a good first step toward a renewed protection for young migrant ‘dreamers’ of bilateral agenda around the main push factor the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals for migration, namely the lack of econom- (DACA) program and the revision of the ic opportunities. I believe that it set the Chilean Environmental Migrant Protection Protocols.” stage to deliver a unified message around Tribunal Reverses Ruling job creation as the single most important Salvador Paiz, president of variable that can reduce irregular migratory on Andes Iron Permits FUNSEPA and board member flows in the immediate term. Certainly, rule A Chilean environmental tribunal has discarded of FUNDESA in Guatemala City: of law, citizen security and the fight against an earlier decision by a regulator that denied A “Given the record-breaking corruption are key continued themes of the mining company Andes Iron key permits relat- figure of 172,000 migrants apprehended at bilateral agenda as they are critical ingredi- ed to its $2.5 billion Dominga copper and iron the border in March, the Zúñiga delegation’s ents to creating the necessary jobs to reduce mining project, Reuters reported Friday. Judges visit had a palpable sense of urgency. In migration. We should collectively take the of the Antofagasta Environmental Tribunal Guatemala, the delegation met with several lessons learned from the Alliance for Pros- voted unanimously to require the regional members of the cabinet and President perity plan and the U.S. Strategy for Central environmental assessment commission to vote Giammattei, whereby in El Salvador they America. Namely, we should define a much again on the project’s impact study. Andes Iron only met with the minister of foreign affairs. narrower focus, support locally developed said it was hoping to restart construction of Continued on page 4 the project later this year, provided it met with the court’s stipulations, Reuters reported.

COPYRIGHT © 2021, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Monday, April 19, 2021 million jobs and that those who participate in the reforestation program should be given an THE DIALOGUE CONTINUES opportunity to obtain U.S. work visas, and even- tually U.S. citizenship, in return. “This would allow us to order the flow of migration, which How Effectively Is Mexico overflowed in March,” López Obrador said in a Fighting the Covid-19 Pandemic? video posted on Sunday. The tree-planting ini- tiative, dubbed Sembrando Vida, is one of the Mexico’s Health Ministry to tackle a once-in-a-century pandemic. Nev- president’s flagship cash payment programs. It acknowledged last month in a ertheless, AMLO has had a particularly poor provides a monthly stipend to citizens in rural report that the country’s true pandemic. Beyond his decision to eschew areas who cultivate hardwood and fruit trees Q number of coronavirus-related the use of a face mask (he inevitably con- in deforested areas. However, the $3.4 billion deaths may exceed 321,000, a nearly 60 tracted Covid-19), his government’s handling program’s efficiency is unclear, as it may have percent increase from the official tally. The of the crisis has been ham-fisted, as evinced caused 73,000 hectares of forest coverage loss figure includes 120,000 “excess” deaths by its desultory response to the initial in 2019, according to a study by the World Re- that were previously unaccounted for due outbreak, as well as the dilatory rollout of its sources Institute, Bloomberg News reported. In to reasons including a lack of testing and vaccination program. Pandemic mismanage- related news, Biden on Saturday said he would unreported cases of Covid-19. What is ment has extended to efforts to mitigate the increase the cap on the number of refugees the real state of the pandemic in Mexico, economic fallout. It could have been worse— admitted this year into the United States. The and what major limitations in the country’s ironically, the president’s refusal to impose U.S. president had been facing sharp criticism public health system has it exposed? How the kind of draconian lockdown seen in other from Democratic legislators after announcing well has Mexico’s government planned for parts of the region may have precluded an his administration would maintain a historically vaccination rollout? With legislative and economic ‘AMLOgeddon.’ Levels of public low cap of 15,000 refugees that administration local elections scheduled for June, will the disgruntlement are high, though this is of former U.S. President Donald Trump had put new statistics have political consequences? unlikely to translate into punishment at the in place, Reuters reported. Biden did not say by polls. The ruling Morena is likely to ‘win’ how much he would increase the number. Gavin Strong, director of the the midterm elections scheduled for June risk analysis practice in Mexico, 6. ‘So far from God, so close to the United Central America and the Ca- States’—as the apocryphal line attributed BUSINESS NEWS A ribbean Community at Control to erstwhile Mexican caudillo Porfirio Díaz Risks: “Independent estimates and anecdot- goes. Nevertheless, as unpalatable as it may al evidence suggest the figure is even higher, be for AMLO and his nationalist myrmidons, Lithium Miners With perhaps in excess of 500,000. This is in beyond the midterms, Mexico will likely look Argentina Projects the same ballpark as the number of people northwards for economic and vaccination killed or disappeared since former President salvation.” Eye $3 Billion Merger Felipe Calderón kicked the hornet’s nest of organized crime. The number of Covid-19 fa- Australia’s Orocobre has agreed to buy rival talities reflects as much the immediate-term EDITOR’S NOTE: The comment above is a miner Galaxy Resources in a deal that would ineptitude of the current administration as it continuation of the Q&A published in the create a $3 billion miner and one of the does the long-term neglect of public health April 8 issue of the Advisor. world’s largest lithium producers, with some by its predecessors. They bequeathed AMLO projects in Argentina, The Wall Street Journal a public health sector woefully ill-equipped reported today. The deal’s announcement comes amid steadily rising lithium prices and billion Australian dollars, or approximately Nov. 10. Meanwhile, Bolivia holds the world’s higher-than-expected demand. The metal is a $3.06 billion, Bloomberg News reported. The largest lithium resources that have yet to be key component in batteries used for electric ve- deal would create the fifth-largest global commercially developed, Vásquez added. The hicles and other high- and clean-tech products. lithium miner, the companies said. Argentina is three countries make up the so-called Lithium Orocobre manages the Olaroz lithium operation the world’s fourth-biggest lithium producer, and Triangle of South America. “Lithium Triangle in northern Argentina, and Galaxy also has proj- among the leading producers in Latin America, countries could turn the current pandemic-gen- ects under development in the South American after Chile, Patricia Vásquez, a research asso- erated slowdown to their advantage by using country as well as in Canada. Based on the ciate at the Center of Conflict, Development the down time to explore multilateral approach- two companies’ closing share prices on Friday, and Peacebuilding of the Graduate Institute of es to the development of the lithium industry,” the merger would have a market value of 3.96 Geneva, told the Advisor in a Q&A published Vásquez wrote.

FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR is published every business day by the Inter-American Dialogue ISSN 2163-7962 strategies and define quantifiable metrics so under-resourced and fraught with contro- as to monitor progress. The Guatemala Does versy, managing various border surges has Erik Brand Not Stop Plan, a locally developed multi-sec- been challenging for some time. The Biden Publisher [email protected] toral proposal to boost investment and job administration is implementing a plan and creation, could provide the basis for ongoing in recent days has reached promising new Gene Kuleta Editor collaboration. The readouts from the call agreements with Mexico, Honduras and Gua- [email protected] between President Giammattei and Vice temala designed to limit the immigrant influx Anastasia Chacón González President Harris are a positive indication from the region. Hopefully, this and other ad- Reporter & Associate Editor that a unified agenda is achievable.” ministration efforts will not be undermined [email protected] by U.S. internal resistance, and efforts will Diana Roy Mari Carmen Aponte, former be given a chance to succeed.” Editorial Intern U.S. ambassador to El Salvador [email protected] and former acting assistant Leon Fresco, partner at Holland secretary of state for Western & Knight: “Through these ac- A Michael Shifter, President Hemisphere affairs: “The U.S. long range- tions, Vice President Harris and plan in the Northern Triangle will require Special Envoy Zúñiga obtained a Rebecca Bill Chavez, Nonresident Senior Fellow A Bruno Binetti, Nonresident Fellow consistent engagement and constructive renewed commitment from Central American relationships, both with governments and nations to increase internal security so that Sergio Bitar, Nonresident Senior Fellow civil society. To date, there has been mostly nationals of other countries cannot easily Joan Caivano, Senior Advisor uncertainty in civil society and a stony rela- transit on the way to the United States. Michael Camilleri, Director, Rule of Law Program tionship with some governments, especially There is also an effort to seek transparency Kevin Casas-Zamora, Nonresident Senior Fellow El Salvador. With this trip, Special Envoy into specific measures that can be taken to Julia Dias Leite, Nonresident Senior Fellow Zúñiga has begun a process of engagement increase security and safety within Central Ariel Fiszbein, Director, Education Program with a broad variety of government insti- America to reduce emigration. New U.S. Sandra García Jaramillo, Nonresident Senior Fellow Selina Ho, Nonresident Senior Fellow tutions and private as well as civil society assistance should consist of constructing Edison Lanza, Nonresident Senior Fellow actors. This will undoubtedly be an ongoing fully staffed and secure locations within Nora Lustig, Nonresident Senior Fellow process with no consistent linear progress, Central America where refugee claims can Margaret Myers, Director, Asia Program requiring assurances, clarifications and be quickly processed so people don’t have Manuel Orozco, Senior Fellow explanations over the long run. It is clear the to travel to the U.S. border. The U.S. border Xiaoyu Pu, Nonresident Senior Fellow special envoy was there to listen and begin should only be available for asylum claims Jeffrey Puryear, Senior Fellow fortifying a productive relationship with all when people can articulate why they were Tamar Solnik, Director, Finance & Administration sectors. The aim of U.S. assistance in the not safe at one of the new refugee pro- Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy Program region should not be to directly create jobs, cessing centers created abroad. The Biden Denisse Yanovich, Director of Development but rather to use its resources, influence administration is trying its best to process and expertise to create conditions in areas increasing flows of unaccompanied minors Latin America Advisor is published every that will spur economic growth, stability and and families at the border while trying business day, except for major U.S. holidays, by the Inter-American Dialogue at confidence in institutions. Areas such as to change regulations to accomplish its 1155 15th Street NW, Suite 800 gender violence, extortions, protection of long-term plan. Part of that plan is creating Washington, DC 20005 small businesses and, of course, anti-cor- an infrastructure for seeking asylum that www.thedialogue.org ruption are important but not exclusive is located in Mexico and Central America Subscription inquiries are welcomed at [email protected] issues that need addressing. When tackled rather than the United States. It is also trying effectively, these will help stimulate the right to work with Central American countries on The opinions expressed by the members of the Board of Advisors and by guest commentators do not necessarily environment to address root causes. Anoth- security improvements and job creation in represent those of the publisher. The analysis is the sole er role for the United States is to coordinate order to reduce incentives for emigration. view of each commentator and does not necessarily represent the views of their respective employers or firms. programs with other international donors, In the short term, these methods will not The information in this report has been obtained from not only to avoid duplication, but also to immediately solve the influx at the border, reliable sources, but neither its accuracy and completeness, seek strategic partnerships that result in but they are necessary measures to create nor the opinions based thereon, are guaranteed. If you have any questions relating to the contents of this publication, more robust results. The swell of immigrants long-term change in migration patterns that contact the editorial offices of the Inter-American Dialogue. along the U.S. border is not new. Historically have existed for more than a decade.” Contents of this report may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted without prior written permission from the publisher.