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Becker Diss Final Format P. 194 Fixed.Pages UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO To Build or To Buy: Understanding the Determinants of Security Privatization in Developing States A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Megan Lynn Becker Committee in charge: Professor David Lake, Chair Professor Deborah Avant Professor Erik Gartzke Professor Stephan Haggard Professor Miles Kahler 2016 Copyright Megan Lynn Becker, 2016 All rights reserved. The Dissertation of Megan Lynn Becker is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: ___________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________ Chair University of California, San Diego 2016 !iii DEDICATION For Jon !iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature page ..............................................................................................................iii Dedication .....................................................................................................................iv Table of Contents ...........................................................................................................v List of Figures ...............................................................................................................vi List of Tables ...............................................................................................................vii Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................viii Vita ................................................................................................................................xi Abstract of the Dissertation .........................................................................................xii Chapter 1. Introduction .................................................................................................1 Chapter 2. A Theory of Security Privatization in Weak States ...................................62 Chapter 3. Quantitative Tests ......................................................................................98 Chapter 4. Threats to Survival ...................................................................................128 Chapter 5. Reliance on Appropriable Natural Resources ..........................................145 Chapter 6. Conclusion ................................................................................................185 References…………………………………………………………………………..194 !v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 The EO network according to Musah and Fayemi (2000) .........................31 Figure 1.2 The EO network According to Pech (1999) ..............................................32 Figure 2.1 Distribution in Time Between Violent Leadership Turnover in States At Different Levels of Development ..........................................................66 Figure 3.1 Number of Coup Events in Sub-Saharan Africa by Year .........................106 Figure 3.2 Number of States Exporting Diamonds or Oil by Year ............................107 Figure 3.3 Number of States Engaged in Civil Conflicts Per Year………………….108 Figure 3.4 Joint Distribution of Independent Variables .............................................110 Figure 3.5 Most PMC use is at the Base of the Spear ................................................121 !vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 PMC Expenditures as a Percent of GDP ......................................................28 Table 1.A.1 Sandline Contract Breakdown ..................................................................59 Table 1.A.2 MI-24 Ordnance .......................................................................................60 Table 1.A.3 Special Forces Equipment ........................................................................61 Table 2.1 Expectations for Security Privatization ........................................................96 Table 3.1 Joint Distribution of IVs ............................................................................109 Table 3.2 Hypotheses .................................................................................................111 Table 3.3 Model 2 Results ..........................................................................................114 Table 3.4 Model 3 Results ..........................................................................................115 Table 3.5 Robustness Checks for Dependence Assumptions .....................................117 Table 3.6 Model 7 Results .........................................................................................120 Table 3.7 Country-Years of PMC Use at the Tip of the Spear ...................................122 Table 3.8 Theoretical Predictions and Their Support .................................................124 Table 3.9 Summarization of Theory ..........................................................................124 Table 4.1 Existential Threat and PMC Use ................................................................130 Table 4.2 Regime Leaders During the Sierra Leone Civil War .................................131 Table 4.3 Theoretical Predictions (Reproduced from Chapter 2) ..............................138 Table 5.1 Resource Reliance and PMC Use ..............................................................147 !vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation would not have been possible without the guidance and support of a large group of people. First, I would like to those who introduced me to the topic: Captain Kenneth Ryan (USN), Lieutenant Colonel Lawrence Grubbs (USAF), Herb Howe, and other colleagues at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces at the National Defense University. They encouraged me to delve into the topic and helped me make invaluable connections with the policy community. I would also like to thank Doug Lemke, who led me through the earliest stages of this work and has continued to be a mentor to me for the last ten years. He provided advice as I began to navigate the world of academia and has never stopped encouraging me to do my best work. This work would not be the same without the comments and feedback provided by colleagues and friends. I would like to thank Jessica Blankshain, Doug Brooks, Steve Brooks, Fotini Christia, Erica DeBruin, Jesse Driscoll, Jennifer Erickson, Christopher Fariss, Jeff Friedman, Micah Gell-Redman, Ben Graham, Virginia Haufler, Cullen Hendrix, Paula Jacobsen, Karl Kruse, Blake McMahon, Michelle Murray, Steven Oliver, Charles O’Mahoney, Marissa Porges, Miranda Priebe, Molly Bauer Racenberg, Steve Saideman, Idean Salehyan, Ben Tang, Matt Waldman, Rachel Whitlark, Cindy Williams, Michael Williams, Bill Wohlforth and Nussaibah Younis, as well as researchers at the Peace Research Institute of Oslo, the Harvard-MIT Women !viii in International Politics and Security Group, the Dartmouth Dickey Center for International Understanding, and panelists and audience members at APSA and ISA. Thanks also goes to my committee: Deborah Avant, Erik Gartzke, Steph Haggard, and Miles Kahler. Their collected expertise was an invaluable asset from the very beginning and I am immensely grateful for their comments that only made this dissertation better. One could not find a better advisor than David Lake. He has brainstormed with me, provided rounds and rounds of comments, and given me a swift kick in the pants when I needed it. Perhaps most importantly to me, he has encouraged me to seek out a career path that fulfills my ambitions, without judgment when that path differed from his own. Thank you, David. There is also a group of people who provided companionship, support and comfortable couches during the final push of the dissertation. I would not have been able to finish without them. First, I must thank my family—my parents, Ron and Brenda, my sister Caitlin, and my four-legged siblings, Bosley and Bella—for their unconditional love. I would also like to express my gratitude to Clio Bohmer-Lebow, Claire Enemark, Britt Flaherty and Rachael Mills, Clare Rolens and Jimi Damon for opening their homes to me while I shuttled back and forth between San Diego and other (sometimes) far-flung locations. Jo Bailey, Myrl Hendershott, and Donali Peter have taken me in as a member of their respective families and never let me forget it, especially on a martini night. Finally, special recognition must go to Daniel Enemark, !ix a great friend and an even better editor. His careful eye and ability to explain complex concepts in a clear way were a boon to me as I reached the point of having read the draft too many times. Last, but not least, I would like to thank my husband, Jonathan Markowitz. I am so lucky to have a person on-call at all hours who provides love, support, and amazing feedback on my sometimes half-baked ideas. We went through this process together and I would not have wanted it any other way. !x VITA Academic Appointments 2014-15 Lecturer, Department of Government, Dartmouth College 2013 Lecturer, Department of Political Science, Tufts University 2012-14 Lecturer, Department of Political Science, UC San Diego Education 2016 PhD, Political Science, University of California, San Diego Dissertation: “To Build or to Buy: Understanding Security Privatization in Developing States” Committee: David Lake
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