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US Finance:

Yardeni Research, Inc.

September 24, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box Table Of Contents TableTable OfOf ContentsContents

US Treasury Debt 1 Debt Limit 2 US Treasury Debt 3-4 Public Debt 5 Fed’s Holdings of US Treasuries 6 Foreign Central ’ Holdings of US Treasuries 7 All Central Banks’ Holdings of US Treasuries 8 Foreign Purchases of US Treasuries 9 Foreign Official 10 US Capital Inflows: Treasuries 11 US Capital Inflows: Agencies 12 Holdings 13 Twin Deficits 14 Total Outstand Marketable Debt 15-16

September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com US Treasury Debt Figure 1. 4650 4650 US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICIT & BORROWING (billion dollars) 4150 4150

3650 3650 US Treasury Securities 3150 Held by Public 3150 (yearly change) US Federal Budget Deficit Aug 2650 (12-month sum) 2650

2150 2150

1650 1650 Aug 1150 1150

650 650

150 150

yardeni.com -350 -350 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: US Treasury Department.

Figure 2. 1450 1450 US TREASURY SECURITIES OUTSTANDING PUBLICLY HELD (billion dollars, monthly change) 1300 1300

1150 1150

1000 1000

850 850

700 700

550 550

400 400

250 250

100 100

-50 Aug -50

yardeni.com -200 -200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: US Treasury Department.

Page 1 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Debt Limit Figure 3. 30 30 TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING 28 (trillion dollars, nsa) Aug 28

26 26

24 24

22 Aug 22 Subject to Debt Limit (28.4) 20 Statutory Debt Limit (28.4) 20 Publicly Held 18 Treasury Securities Outstanding (22.3) 18 16 16

14 14

12 12

10 10

8 8

6 6

4 4 yardeni.com 2 2 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.

Figure 4. 9.5 9.5 US FEDERAL DEBT HELD BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 9.0 (trillion dollars, nsa) 9.0 Aug 8.5 8.5 8.0 8.0 7.5 7.5 7.0 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 yardeni.com 1.5 1.5 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.

Page 2 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com US Treasury Debt Figure 5. 24 24 US TREASURY DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC 22 (trillion dollars, nsa) Aug 22

20 Aug 20

18 18

16 16 Publicly Held 14 Treasury Securities Outstanding (22.3) 14 Marketable* (19.7) 12 12

10 10

8 8

6 6

4 4

yardeni.com 2 2 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Marketable -bearing bills, notes and bonds. Source: US Treasury Department, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.

Figure 6. 13 13 US TREASURY DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC Aug 12 (trillion dollars, nsa) 12

11 11

10 10 Marketable Interest-Bearing 9 Bills 9 Notes 8 Bonds 8 7 7

6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3

2 2

1 1 yardeni.com 0 0 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

Source: US Treasury Department, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.

Page 3 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com US Treasury Debt Figure 7. 100 100 US TREASURY DEBT OUTSTANDING 95 (marketable interest-bearing debt as a percent of nominal GDP) 95 90 90 85 Q2 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 yardeni.com 15 15 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: US Treasury Department, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.

Figure 8. 24 24 BORROWING OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS* 22 (as a percent of nominal GDP) 22 20 20 Debt (y/y change) 18 US Treasury (9.1) 18 16 Nonfederal** (6.8) 16

14 14

12 12

10 10 Q2 8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0

-2 -2

-4 -4 yardeni.com -6 -6 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* Yearly change in debt divided by 4-quarter moving average of nominal GDP. ** Nonfederal equals total nonfinancial minus US Treasury. Source: Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Page 4 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Public Debt Figure 9. 200 200 PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING PER CAPITA 190 190 (thousand dollars) 180 180 170 170 160 160 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 Aug 110 100 100 90 90 80 Divided by: 80 70 Household Employment (185.6) 70 60 Labor Force (176.0) 60 Working Age Population (108.7) 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 yardeni.com 0 0 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: US Treasury Department and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 10. 3.6 3.6 PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.0 Divided by Annualized: 3.0 Wages & Salaries 2.8 2.8 Disposable Personal Income Less Jul 2.6 Government Social Benefits to Persons 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.0 Jul 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 .8 .8 .6 .6 yardeni.com .4 .4 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: US Treasury Department and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 5 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Fed’s Holdings of US Treasuries Figure 11. 5600 5600 US TREASURIES HELD BY FEDERAL RESERVE 9/22 5200 (billion dollars, nsa) 5200 4800 4800 4400 4400 4000 4000 3600 3600 3200 Outstanding 3200 2800 2800 2400 2400 2000 2000 1600 1600 1200 1200 800 800 yardeni.com 400 400 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

3000 3000

2000 2000 Yearly Change

1000 9/22 1000

0 0

yardeni.com -1000 -1000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

30 30

As a percent of US Treasury Debt* Aug 25 25

20 20

15 15

10 10

yardeni.com 5 5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Marketable interest-bearing bills, notes, and bonds. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Table H.4.1.

Page 6 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Foreign Central Banks’ Holdings of US Treasuries Figure 12. 3200 3200 US TREASURIES HELD BY FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS* 9/22 3000 (billion dollars, nsa) 3000 2800 2800

2600 2600 Outstanding 2400 2400

2200 2200

2000 2000

1800 1800

1600 1600

1400 1400

1200 1200 yardeni.com 1000 1000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

800 800

700 700

600 Yearly Change 600

500 500

400 400

300 300

200 200

100 9/22 100 0 0

-100 -100

-200 -200 yardeni.com -300 -300 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

34 34

32 As a percent of 32 US Treasury Debt** 30 30

28 28

26 26

24 24

22 22

20 20

18 18

16 16 Aug yardeni.com 14 14 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Held in custody at Federal Reserve. ** Marketable interest-bearing bills, notes, and bonds. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Table H.4.1.

Page 7 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com All Central Banks’ Holdings of US Treasuries Figure 13. 8500 9/22 8500 US TREASURIES HELD BY FEDERAL RESERVE & FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS 8000 8000 (billion dollars, nsa) 7500 7500 7000 7000 6500 6500 6000 Outstanding 6000 5500 5500 5000 5000 4500 4500 4000 4000 3500 3500 3000 3000 2500 2500 2000 2000 yardeni.com 1500 1500 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

3000 3000

2500 2500 Yearly Change

2000 2000

1500 1500

1000 9/22 1000

500 500

0 0

yardeni.com -500 -500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

55 55

As a percent of US Treasury Debt* 50 50

45 45

Aug

40 40

35 35

yardeni.com 30 30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Marketable interest-bearing bills, notes, and bonds. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Table H.4.1.

Page 8 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Foreign Purchases of US Treasuries Figure 14.

800 FOREIGN PURCHASES OF US TREASURIES 800 (billion dollars) 600 US Capital Inflows: US Treasuries 600 (12-month sum) 400 FRODOR: US Treasuries* 400 (12-month change) 200 200 Aug 0 0 Jul -200 -200

-400 -400

-600 -600

-800 -800 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

4200 US FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT & FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOWS 4200 (billion dollars) 3800 3800 3400 3400 US Federal Budget Deficit 3000 (12-month sum) 3000 2600 2600 2200 US Capital Inflows: US Treasuries 2200 (12-month sum) 1800 1800 1400 1400 1000 1000 600 600 200 200 Jul -200 -200 -600 -600 -1000 -1000 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

4400 4400 US FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT & FOREIGN OFFICIAL CAPITAL INFLOWS 4000 (billion dollars) 4000 3600 3600 3200 US Federal Budget Deficit 3200 (12-month sum) 2800 Aug 2800 2400 FRODOR: US Treasuries* 2400 (12-month change) 2000 2000 1600 1600 1200 1200 800 800 400 400 0 Aug 0 yardeni.com -400 -400 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Foreign Official Dollar Reserves held in custody for foreign official and international accounts at the Federal Reserve. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs.

Page 9 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Foreign Official Assets Figure 15. 3800 3800 FOREIGN OFFICIAL DOLLAR RESERVES (Monthly) 3600 3600 (billion dollars, nsa) 3400 Aug 3400 3200 3200 Aug 3000 3000 2800 2800 2600 2600 2400 2400 2200 2200 2000 FRODOR 2000 1800 US Treasuries 1800 1600 1600 US Treasuries Plus 1400 US Federal Agency Securities 1400 1200 US Federal Agency Securities 1200 1000 1000 800 800 600 600 400 400 Aug 200 200 yardeni.com 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Figure 16. 50 50 US FEDERAL DEBT HELD BY FOREIGN (as a percent of total federal debt held by the public) 45 45

40 40

35 35

30 30 Q2

25 25 All Foreign Investors 20 20

15 15 Q2 10 Foreign 10 Central Banks* yardeni.com 5 5 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Data from 1952 to 1996 are foreign official assets held at the Fed in US Treasuries. From 1997 to the present, data are marketable US Treasury securities held by the Fed for foreign and international accounts. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Page 10 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com US Capital Inflows: Treasuries Figure 17. 2200 2200 NET SECURITIES PURCHASED BY FOREIGNERS FROM US RESIDENTS 1600 (billion dollars) 1600 1000 1000 400 400 -200 Jul -200

-800 US Treasury Notes & Bonds: Total -800 -1400 12-month sum (-60.0) -1400 3-month sum -2000 annual rate (-289.2) -2000 -2600 -2600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 Jul 0 -100 -100 -200 -200 -300 Asia -300 -400 12-month sum (-18.6) -400 -500 3-month sum annual rate (-193.0) -500 -600 -600 -700 -700 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

550 550

350 350

150 150 Jul -50 -50

-250 Europe -250 12-month sum (94.6) -450 3-month sum annual rate (-29.6) -450

-650 -650 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

350 350

150 150

-50 -50 Jul -250 -250

-450 Rest of World -450 -650 12-month sum (-135.9) -650 3-month sum annual rate (-66.6) -850 -850 yardeni.com -1050 -1050 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: US Treasury International Capital System.

Page 11 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com US Capital Inflows: Agencies Figure 18. 1100 1100 NET SECURITIES PURCHASED BY FOREIGNERS FROM US RESIDENTS 900 (billion dollars) 900 700 US Government Agency Bonds: Total 700 500 12-month sum (461.3) 500 3-month sum annual rate (325.2) Jul 300 300 100 100 -100 -100 -300 -300 -500 -500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

600 600 500 Asia 500 400 12-month sum (317.5) 400 3-month sum annual rate (260.1) 300 Jul 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 -100 -100 -200 -200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

300 300 250 Europe 250 200 12-month sum (82.6) 200 150 3-month sum annual rate (36.8) 150 100 100 Jul 50 50 0 0 -50 -50 -100 -100 -150 -150 -200 -200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

200 200 150 150 100 100 50 Jul 50 0 0 -50 -50 -100 Rest of World -100 -150 12-month sum (61.2) -150 -200 3-month sum annual rate (28.3) -200 yardeni.com -250 -250 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: US Treasury International Capital System.

Page 12 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Bank Holdings Figure 19. 9/8 4200 4200 BANKS: US TREASURY & AGENCY SECURITIES 3900 (billion dollars, sa) 3900

3600 3600

3300 3300

3000 3000

2700 2700

2400 2400

2100 2100

1800 1800

1500 1500

1200 1200

900 900

600 600 yardeni.com 300 300 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Figure 20. 1050 1050 1000 BANKS: US TREASURY & AGENCY SECURITIES Latest (757.7) 1000 950 (billion dollars, yearly change) 950 900 900 850 850 800 800 750 9/8 750 700 700 650 650 600 600 550 550 500 500 450 450 400 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 -50 -50 -100 -100 yardeni.com -150 -150 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Page 13 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Twin Deficits Figure 21. 1000 1000 TWIN DEFICITS (billion dollars, 12-month sum)

0 0

-1000 -1000

-2000 -2000

Aug -3000 -3000 US Federal Budget Deficit US Merchandise Deficit US Merchandise Trade Deficit Excluding Petroleum Products -4000 -4000

yardeni.com -5000 -5000 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and the Treasury Department.

Figure 22. 10 10 US PUBLIC DEBT VS. NET INTERNATIONAL (trillion dollars)

0 0 2010

Jun

-10 -10 US Public Debt: Held by the Public US Public Debt: Intragovernmental Holdings US Net International -20 Investment Position -20 (current cost basis) Jun

yardeni.com -30 -30 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board’s Flow of Funds Accounts.

Page 14 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Total Outstand Marketable Debt Figure 23. 75 75 TOTAL OUTSTANDING MARKETABLE DEBT: AVERAGE (months)

70 70 Q2

65 65

60 60

55 55

50 50

yardeni.com 45 45 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: US Treasury and Haver Analytics.

Figure 24. 7 7 NET INTEREST PAID BY US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (12-month sum as a percent of 12-month average of publicly held Treasury debt)

6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3

2 2 Aug

yardeni.com 1 1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: US Treasury Department and Monthly Statment of the Public Debt of the United States.

Page 15 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Total Outstand Marketable Debt Figure 25. 1230 1230 NET INTEREST PAID BY US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (billion dollars) x5.0

1030 1030

x4.0 830 830

Actual (12-month sum) Publicly Held x3.0 630 Treasuries multiplied by 630 various interest rates

430 x2.0 430 Aug

230 x1.0 230

yardeni.com 30 30 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.

Page 16 / September 24, 2021 / US Government Finance: Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2021. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted on www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.comhttp://blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s . Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any --including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.

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