Forgetting Chechnya1
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												  ON the EFFECTIVE USE of PROXY WARFARE by Andrew Lewis Peek Baltimore, Maryland May 2021 © 2021 Andrew Peek All Rights ReservedON THE EFFECTIVE USE OF PROXY WARFARE by Andrew Lewis Peek A dissertation submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Baltimore, Maryland May 2021 2021 Andrew Peek All rights reserved Abstract This dissertation asks a simple question: how are states most effectively conducting proxy warfare in the modern international system? It answers this question by conducting a comparative study of the sponsorship of proxy forces. It uses process tracing to examine five cases of proxy warfare and predicts that the differentiation in support for each proxy impacts their utility. In particular, it proposes that increasing the principal-agent distance between sponsors and proxies might correlate with strategic effectiveness. That is, the less directly a proxy is supported and controlled by a sponsor, the more effective the proxy becomes. Strategic effectiveness here is conceptualized as consisting of two key parts: a proxy’s operational capability and a sponsor’s plausible deniability. These should be in inverse relation to each other: the greater and more overt a sponsor’s support is to a proxy, the more capable – better armed, better trained – its proxies should be on the battlefield. However, this close support to such proxies should also make the sponsor’s influence less deniable, and thus incur strategic costs against both it and the proxy. These costs primarily consist of external balancing by rival states, the same way such states would balance against conventional aggression. Conversely, the more deniable such support is – the more indirect and less overt – the less balancing occurs.
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												  The Second Chechen War: the Information ComponentWARNING! The views expressed in FMSO publications and reports are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. The Second Chechen War: The Information Component by Emil Pain, Former Russian Ethno-national Relations Advisor Translated by Mr. Robert R. Love Foreign Military Studies Office, Fort Leavenworth, KS. This article appeared in The linked image cannot be displayed. The file may have been moved, renamed, or deleted. Verify that the link points to the correct file a Military Review July-August 2000 In December 1994 Russian authorities made their first attempt to crush Chechen separatism militarily. However, after two years of bloody combat the Russian army was forced to withdraw from the Chechen Republic. The obstinacy of the Russian authorities who had decided on a policy of victory in Chechnya resulted in the deaths of at least 30,000 Chechens and 5,000 Russian soldiers.1 This war, which caused an estimated $5.5 billion in economic damage, was largely the cause of Russia's national economic crisis in 1998, when the Russian government proved unable to service its huge debts.2 It seemed that after the 1994-1996 war Russian society and the federal government realized the ineffectiveness of using colonial approaches to resolve ethnopolitical issues.3 They also understood, it seemed, the impossibility of forcibly imposing their will upon even a small ethnoterritorial community if a significant portion of that community is prepared to take up arms to defend its interests.
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												  Nowhere to Turn but YeltsinNowhere to Turn But Yeltsin JOHN LLOYD he Russian intelligentsia, dispirited, shorn of influence, and broke, had a Tcolloquium in Literaturnava Gazeta in February on its relationship with power. Led off by the greatest of the surviving 1960s bards, Bulat Okudzhava-who said that Yeltsin had tumed away from a group that had represented his staunchest supporters when he was elected five years ago, and now "scorned" it because he and his cronies could not bear criticism-the colloquium was in the main a melancholic series of reflections. Most agreed with Okudzhava by lamenting the loss of a leader who had held out a promise of renewal, yet those who remained reluctantly loyal-and none were robust about being so-fell back on a recognition that speech was now free and that life under the Communists would be worse. Their collective posture was well summed up by the writer Andrei Bitov: The mark of a member of the intelligentsia, he said, was to stand for certain moral and intellectual values, and to have nothing to do with power. Those members of the intelligentsia who had expected more and tried to help Yeltsin achieve it have usually had their fingers burned. Some have resigned, some were sacked, a few cling on for the usual reason that to leave would be to hand their place to someone worse. The most famous defector was the former prisoner of conscience Sergei Kovalev, who served as Yeltsin's Human Rights Ombudsman, protested loudly and with great courage against the war in Chechnya (he spent many weeks under bombardment in Grozny, the Chechen capital), and finally resigned from the last of his official posts earlier this year.
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												  The North Caucasus Ways Forward for Russia and the European UnionBuilding Stability in the North Caucasus Ways Forward for Russia and the European Union SIPRI Policy Paper No. 16 Neil J. Melvin Stockholm International Peace Research Institute May 2007 © SIPRI, 2007 ISSN 1652-0432 (print) ISSN 1653-7548 (online) Printed in Sweden by CM Gruppen, Bromma Contents Preface iv Map of the North Caucasus vi Table A.1. Data on the North Caucasus and the Russian Federation vii 1. Introduction: instability in the North Caucasus 1 The structure of this Policy Paper 6 2. The roots of instability in the North Caucasus 7 Incorporation and pacification 7 The North Caucasus in the Soviet Union 9 World War II and Stalin 11 The post-Stalin era and perestroika 12 The North Caucasus in the Russian Federation 15 Nationalist mobilization 15 The failure of state building in the North Caucasus 17 Religious revival 18 The first Chechen war 21 3. The North Caucasus in the Putin era 24 Putin’s new course 24 Replacing local elites 26 The second Chechen war 28 Russia’s ‘war on terrorism’ 31 The role of the international community 35 4. Prospects for the North Caucasus 37 National–territorial issues 37 Islam and Islamism 40 Governance in the North Caucasus 43 Socio-economic issues 44 Russia’s security policies 45 The North Caucasus and the European Union 46 5. Recommendations 48 Recommendations for the Russian Federation 48 Recommendations for the European Union 54 About the author 59 Preface For most people, the notion of conflict in the North Caucasus—a region within the Russian Federation, as distinct from the independent states of the South Cau- casus—is synonymous with Chechnya.
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												  The Yeltsin RegimeTHE YELTSIN REGIME K.S. Karol Translated by David Macey Who holds power in Russia? The question seems ridiculous. Since 12 December 1993, the country has had an ultra-presidential constitution and its architect, Boris Yeltsin, supposedly rules virtually unopposed. For a number of reasons that are the subject of fierce controversy in Moscow, he cannot do so. Various explanations have been put forward: his health, his lack of judgement when it comes to choosing his collaborators, or his inability to decide on the right policies. Some are already laying bets that he will not last until his mandate expires in June 1996; others, like Gennady Burbulis hope that he will complete his mandate 'with dignity' and then leave the stage. But does Boris Yeltsin himself have any intention of doing so? The Russian President has surrounded himself with a much larger staff than that of the Central Committee of the defunct CPSU. The President's administration employs 40,000 people and has an annual budget of three billion roubles. It pays the salaries of deputies and senators, the judges of the Constitutional Court and the state prosecutors. Running this little empire is no easy task, particularly in that those who belong to it are not bound together by any party discipline or solidarity. The 'old democrats' who brought Boris Yeltsin to power can be counted on the fingers of one hand. They have been replaced by so-called administrators recruited on the basis of whom they know. Access to 'Tsar Boris' counts for much more than an individual's place in the hierarchy.
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												  The War in Chechnya and Its AftermathBaylis, Wirtz & Gray: Strategy in the Contemporary World 6e Holding a Decaying Empire Together: The War in Chechnya and its Aftermath On 25 December 1991, the Soviet Union officially was dissolved, with the former superpower splitting into 15 individual states. Each of these entities had been a constituent ‘republic’ of the USSR built around one of the major ethnicities within the country—Russia itself was dominated by Russians, Ukraine by Ukrainians, and so forth. The 15 republics, however, actually greatly simplified the diversity of the Soviet state, which contained hundreds of distinct ethnic groups, many of which dominated a small piece of territory within a republic. In many cases, these groups had certain limited rights to govern themselves locally and independently of the larger republic of which they were a part. The Chechens were one such group. Chechnya is located in Russia, in the mountainous Caucasus and bordering the now-independent country of Georgia. The total number of Chechens is small, although exact numbers are disputed—there are perhaps somewhat over two million Chechens, many of whom live outside Chechnya itself; the population of Chechnya itself is approximately 1.2 million, but this includes Ingush, Kumyks, Russians, and other non-Chechens. The great majority of Chechens are Muslims, and although Chechnya was incorporated into the Russian Empire in the nineteenth century (and Russia had influence in the region much earlier), their culture remains quite distinct from that of the Russians. During the Soviet period, Chechens were joined with another small Caucasian Muslim group, the Ingush, in a local governing entity.
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												  Russian Public Opinion and the Two Chechen Wars, 1994-1996 and 1999-2002: Formation and EvolutionRussian Public Opinion and the Two Chechen Wars, 1994-1996 and 1999-2002: Formation and Evolution A PhD Thesis By: Jason Clinton Vaughn School of Slavonic and East European Studies University College London Supervisor: Dr. Peter J. S. Duncan Secondary Supervisors: Dr. Andrew Wilson Dr. Vesna Popovski 1 UMI Number: U592450 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U592450 Published by ProQuest LLC 2013. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 I declare that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Jason Clinton Vaughn 2 Acknowledgments: In the production of this thesis, I would firstly like to thank my parents for all of their support over the years. Much appreciation goes to my supervisor, Dr. Peter Duncan for having so much patience in reading through all the drafts of this thesis. Also, I would like to thank Professors Martyn Rady and Trevor Thomas for reading sections (and, on occasion, the entirety) of my drafts and giving their advice over the course of my writing. Thanks to Nadezhda Stoyanova for helping me to translate and sift through so much Russian language material and for always being there with a vote of confidence and support.
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												  The Russian Armed Forces ConfrontWARNING! The views expressed in FMSO publications and reports are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. The Caucasus Conflict and Russian Security: the Russian Armed Forces Confront Chechnya Part One, Section One: From Intervention to the Outskirts of Grozny (Military-Political Events from 11 December to 31 December) Mr. Timothy L. Thomas Foreign Military Studies Office, Fort Leavenworth, KS. This article was first published in Slavic Military Studies Vol 8, No 2, June 1995, pp 233-256. Note: This article is based on open source literature published in the Russian press, and items broadcast on Russian radio and TV. Most, but not all, of the reports are from the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS). During the intervention, Russian government and Chechen sources accused one another of placing disinformation in the press. This effort does not aim to prove one point of view correct. It's aim is merely to provide a framework and some logic for the events that have occurred and their consequences. TABLE OF CONTENTS • INTRODUCTION • RUSSIAN RATIONALE FOR THE INTERVENTION • THE LEGAL CASE FOR INTERVENTION • COMMAND AND CONTROL • THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE INTERVENTION Part One, Section One: From Intervention to the Outskirts of Grozny (Military-Political Events from 11 December to 31 December) "No territory has the right to leave Russia." President Yeltsin on Russian TV, 27 December 1994 "Its good to be king." Comedian Mel Brooks, The History of the World As New Year's Eve approached, Russian military gun sights remained pointed at the Presidential Palace of Chechen President Dzhokhar Dudayev.
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												  On December 31, 1999,Yeltsin's Russia Became Putin's RussiaPROLOGUE n December 31, 1999,Yeltsin’s Russia became Putin’s Russia. Boris Yeltsin—a political maverick who until the end tried to Oplay the mutually exclusive roles of democrat and tsar, who made revolutionary frenzy and turmoil his way of survival—unexpect- edly left the Kremlin and handed over power, like a New Year’s gift, to Vladimir Putin, an unknown former intelligence officer who had hardly ever dreamed of becoming a Russian leader. Yeltsin—tired and sick, disoriented and having lost his stamina— apparently understood that he could no longer keep power in his fist. It was a painful and dramatic decision for a politician for whom nonstop struggle for power and domination was the substance of life and his main ambition. His failing health and numerous heart attacks, however, were not the main reasons behind his unexpected resignation. The moment came when Yeltsin could not control the situation much longer and—more important—he did not know how to deal with the new challenges Russia was facing. He had been accustomed to making breakthroughs, to defeating his enemies, to overcoming obstacles. He was not prepared for state building, for the effort of everyday governance, for consensus making, for knitting a new national unity. By nature he was a terminator, not a transformational leader. It was time for him to gra- ciously bow out and hand over power to his successor. And Russia had to live through a time of real suspense while the Kremlin was preparing the transfer of power. The new Russian leader Vladimir Putin has become a symbol of a staggering mix of continuity and change.
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												  NATO Expansion Could Topple Yeltsin Regime3unday, April 13, 1997/Las Vegas Review-Journal NATO expansion could topple Yeltsin regime By Dmitri Shalin policy. Depending on which faction Special to the Review-Journal wielded influenceat the moment, the Russian government sought a rap B oris Yeltsin tried to sound up prochement with the West or raised beat after the Helsinki summit, an iron curtain to protect its indige but the news didn't play well back nous culture. home. Bill Clinton's concessions Deep cuts in the nuclear arsenal, could not offset the fact Yeltsin failed reductions in conventional forces, in to forestall theNATO expansion into ternational summitry, cultural ex Central and Eastern Europe. changes - Mikhail Gorbachev's for This fateful decision is having a eign policy showed a clear pro peculiar impact on the Russian polit Western bias. Boris Yeltsin built on ical this legacy, urging Russia's speedy NEVADA VIEWS scene: It integration into the international This overwrought rhetoricis a same associate membership status, has community. Now he findshimself on touch self-serving. After all, it is go easy on the military integration, . brought the defensiveas the North Atlantic Stalin's imperialism that spurred the and there will be no need to worry together the pro-Western elites and Treaty Organization is poised to ex North Atlantic Treaty. Eastern Eu about offending anybody's sensibili their anti-Western opponents, histor pand eastward. ropean nations have reasons to fear ties. ic archrivals who are setting aside The opposition to the NATO plans Russian expansionism. And the like their differences and uniting in their IfNATO remains a military alli cuts across the familiar divides in lihood that the enlarged NATO ance par excellence designed to opposition to what they perceive to Russian politics.
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												  The Electoral System of the Russian FederationThe original of this publication was published as the research commissioned by the Policy Department for the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament within a framework contract with IRIS. The original version was published separately by the EP (Policy Department for External Policies) in 2011 (number PE 433.688). Copyrights belong to the European Parliament April 2011 THE EU-RUSSIA CENTRE REVIEW The electoral system of the Russian Federation Issue Seventeen CONTENTS Executive summary 4 Introduction 6 Background 6 The evolution of electoral law 7 Roles of legislative and executive branches 9 The Federal Assembly 9 Presidential powers 9 Elections under each President 10 The Yeltsin years 10 New constitution – President versus Parliament 10 Development of political parties under Yeltsin 11 The first three legislative elections 11 Presidential elections 1991 – 1996 13 International Reactions 13 Assessment of the Yeltsin period 15 The Putin years 16 Rise of United Russia 16 Presidential Elections 2000 - 2004 17 Changes during Putin‘s presidency 17 Control of the Media 18 International reactions 18 Assessment of Putin‘s presidency 21 Medvedev‘s Presidency 21 Modernisation Strategy 22 Electoral changes under Medvedev 22 Recent developments 23 Assessment of Medvedev‘s presidency 23 Political parties and electoral support 23 2 Russia‘s party system 23 Law on political parties 23 Funding of parties 24 Role of parties 25 Voter turnout 27 Voter attitudes 28 On political opposition 28 On electoral rules 28 On a personal cult of Putin 28 International reactions 28 Conclusion 29 Annex I: Presidential Election Results 1991-2008 33 Annex II: State Duma Election Results 1993-2007 35 Annex III: The Levada Centre surveys – Public Opinion 37 Bibliography 41 3 A study for the European Parliament by Professor Bill Bowring, Birkbeck College, London, member of the Advisory Board of the EU-Russia Centre1.
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												  The North Caucasus Ways Forward for Russia and the European UnionBuilding Stability in the North Caucasus Ways Forward for Russia and the European Union SIPRI Policy Paper No. 16 Neil J. Melvin Stockholm International Peace Research Institute May 2007 © SIPRI, 2007 ISSN 1652-0432 (print) ISSN 1653-7548 (online) Printed in Sweden by CM Gruppen, Bromma Contents Preface iv Map of the North Caucasus vi Table A.1. Data on the North Caucasus and the Russian Federation vii 1. Introduction: instability in the North Caucasus 1 The structure of this Policy Paper 6 2. The roots of instability in the North Caucasus 7 Incorporation and pacification 7 The North Caucasus in the Soviet Union 9 World War II and Stalin 11 The post-Stalin era and perestroika 12 The North Caucasus in the Russian Federation 15 Nationalist mobilization 15 The failure of state building in the North Caucasus 17 Religious revival 18 The first Chechen war 21 3. The North Caucasus in the Putin era 24 Putin’s new course 24 Replacing local elites 26 The second Chechen war 28 Russia’s ‘war on terrorism’ 31 The role of the international community 35 4. Prospects for the North Caucasus 37 National–territorial issues 37 Islam and Islamism 40 Governance in the North Caucasus 43 Socio-economic issues 44 Russia’s security policies 45 The North Caucasus and the European Union 46 5. Recommendations 48 Recommendations for the Russian Federation 48 Recommendations for the European Union 54 About the author 59 Preface For most people, the notion of conflict in the North Caucasus—a region within the Russian Federation, as distinct from the independent states of the South Cau- casus—is synonymous with Chechnya.