The Crisis in North Africa Implications for Europe and Options for EU Policymakers

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

The Crisis in North Africa Implications for Europe and Options for EU Policymakers The Crisis in North Africa Implications for Europe and Options for EU Policymakers Daveed Gartenstein-Ross Nathaniel Barr George Willcoxon Norhan Basuni Clingendael Report The Crisis in North Africa Implications for Europe and Options for EU Policymakers Daveed Gartenstein-Ross Nathaniel Barr George Willcoxon Norhan Basuni Clingendael Report April 2015 April 2015 © Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the copyright holders. About the authors Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), an adjunct assistant professor in Georgetown University’s security studies program, and the chief executive officer of the D.C-based consulting firm Valens Global. His research and professional work focus on the challenges posed by violent non-state actors. Gartenstein-Ross is the author or volume editor of seventeen books and monographs, including authoring full-length studies on the Libyan civil war, the jihadist group Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia, and Egyptian jihadist group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis’s oath of loyalty to the Islamic State. Gartenstein-Ross holds a Ph.D. in world politics from the Catholic University of America and a J.D. from the New York University School of Law. In addition to his academic work, Gartenstein-Ross consults for clients who are grappling with the chal- lenges posed by violent non-state actors and twenty-first century conflict. His client work has included live hostage negotiations in the Middle East, risk assessments for oil and gas com- panies, border security work in Europe, and story and series development for major media companies. He has also advised the U.S. Department of Defense about the Libyan civil war. Nathaniel Barr is a threat analyst at Valens Global, where he focuses on violent non-state actors and political violence in North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. He has worked extensively on a wide array of issues concerning insurgent movements and terrorist organizations. Barr was Gartenstein-Ross’s co-author on the aforementioned study exploring the Libyan civil war, and also co-authored a monograph on China’s post-2014 role in Afghanistan (FDD Press, 2014). He is a graduate of Brandeis University, holding a degree in political science and a minor in journalism. George Willcoxon, who served as the director of research at Valens Global while working on this report, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of California at Berkeley. He also holds M.A. and M.P.P. degrees from UC Berkeley, and a B.A. from Princeton University. Willcoxon’s dissertation presents a theory of counterinsurgent strategic behavior that explains how counterinsurgents select from among a variety of political, economic, and military strategies. Willcoxon’s writings have appeared in such publications as the California Journal of Politics and Policy, the Diplomatist, and the San Francisco Chronicle. He began a job at the United Nations office in Beirut in March 2015. Norhan Basuni is an independent analyst specializing in North Africa. She has spent significant time in the region, specifically in Egypt and Morocco, conducting research on Islamic/Arab civil society, counterterrorism, and global health and development strategies. She has served as a consultant to non-profit organizations, government agencies, and the private sector, and has expertise in conflict resolution, strategic communication, and humanitarian relief. Basuni is a graduate of the City University of New York, and is fluent in Arabic and French. The authors would like to thank Simran Maker, Bridget Moreng, Karly Nocera, Ravi Patel, and Natalie Rozet for their research assistance. Karly Nocera designed the maps featured in this report. Clingendael Institute P.O. Box 93080 2509 AB The Hague The Netherlands Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.clingendael.nl/ Contents Guide to Acronyms 5 Executive Summary 7 Introduction 10 1. North Africa Since the Arab Spring 11 2. Key Threats and Future Contingencies 34 3. Policy Options 57 Conclusion 90 4 Guide to Acronyms AAB Abdullah Azzam Brigades ABM Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis APC armored personnel carrier AQIM Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb AST Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia CoE Center of Excellence CT counterterrorism DCFTA deep and comprehensive free trade agreement DDR disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration DoD Department of Defense [United States] EOD explosive ordnance disposal EU European Union EUBAM Libya European Border Assistance Mission in Libya FLN National Liberation Front [Algeria] GIA Groupe Islamique Armé [Algeria] GNC General National Congress [Libya] GSPC Groupe Salafiste pour la Prédication et le Combat [Algeria] HoR House of Representatives [Libya’s internationally recognized government] IDPs internally displaced persons IED improvised explosive device IS Islamic State ISR intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance IYSC Islamic Youth Shura Council JIEDDO Joint Improvised Explosives Device Defeat Organization MJN Muhammad Jamal Network MRAP Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles PJD Justice and Development Party (Morocco) SSR security sector reform UAE United Arab Emirates UAVs unmanned aerial vehicles UN United Nations UNHCR United Nations High Commission for Refugees UNSC United Nations Security Council VNSA violent non-state actor 5 Map of North Africa Tunis Algiers Rabat Casablanca Tunisia Misrata Tripoli Alexandria Morocco Benghazi Peninsula Sinai Cairo Algeria Libya Egypt Mali Niger Chad Sudan 6 Executive Summary The Arab Spring protests of 2011 that swept through the Middle East and North Africa radically reshaped the region’s political and security environment. Longstanding regimes in Egypt and Tunisia fell in a matter of weeks, though the political orders that underpinned these regimes remained largely intact. Conversely, the violent overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi’s government in Libya upended the political status quo and forced post-revolutionary leaders to attempt to rebuild political institutions from the regime’s ashes. To the west, Morocco and Algeria have largely avoided the political turmoil that enveloped their eastern neighbors, though the threat of domestic unrest prompted both governments to adopt political and economic reforms that at least symbolically addressed the grievances of their populations. The newly unstable regional environment has created an array of challenges for European policymakers. Most prominent, jihadist groups have flourished in post-revolutionary North Africa, capitalizing on state weakness to carve out several spheres of influence. Libya’s descent into civil war has provided a further boost to regional jihadist groups, and the proliferation of jihadist actors in North Africa poses a direct threat to European security. But the political instability that has beset North Africa in the years following the Arab Spring also undermines European strategic and economic interests in broader ways. North Africa has quickly descended from being a bastion of continuity and consistency into a basket case, forcing European states to carefully monitor threats so as to limit spillover into Europe. Violent conflict and political disorder has undermined North Africa’s economic potential, which has in turn harmed European trade with its southern neighbor. Parts of North Africa have become strongholds for criminal networks, including drug traffickers and human smugglers, who have used North Africa as a base from which to gain entry into Europe. This report is divided into three sections. The first section provides an overview of current political trends in each of the five North African countries. Libya’s collapse poses a direct threat both to Europe and also its neighbors, as an ongoing civil conflict rages between the Dawn and Dignity coalitions. With no real central government to speak of, Libya has become hospitable to a wide variety of violent non-state actors, including jihadist groups. Egypt and Tunisia’s post-revolutionary trajectories have been less tumultuous than Libya’s, but both countries remain fragile. The Egyptian state, led by military strongman Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, has cracked down on its opposition at the expense of civil liberties and political freedom. The country is beset by a persistent jihadist threat in the Sinai region, which has now spilled into the Nile Delta. Unlike Egypt, Tunisia has continued on its democratic path, making it perhaps the Arab Spring’s only success story. Still, Tunisia’s democratic transition is fragile, susceptible to challenges from those involved in the political process and also others who abstain from politics altogether. The latter group includes jihadists who continue to carry out attacks, including the shocking March 2015 slaughter of tourists at Tunis’s Bardo National Museum. Morocco and Algeria stand out for their political stability and continuity. However, the poor health of Algerian leader Abdelaziz Bouteflika raises concerns about potential succession troubles. Morocco continues to struggle with high levels of youth unemployment as well as a 7 The Crisis in North Africa | Clingendael Report, April 2015 burgeoning domestic radicalization problem, which has manifested itself in a large number of Moroccans traveling to Syria to join militant groups like the Islamic State and Jabhat
Recommended publications
  • Boko Haram Beyond the Headlines: Analyses of Africa’S Enduring Insurgency
    Boko Haram Beyond the Headlines: Analyses of Africa’s Enduring Insurgency Editor: Jacob Zenn Boko Haram Beyond the Headlines: Analyses of Africa’s Enduring Insurgency Jacob Zenn (Editor) Abdulbasit Kassim Elizabeth Pearson Atta Barkindo Idayat Hassan Zacharias Pieri Omar Mahmoud Combating Terrorism Center at West Point United States Military Academy www.ctc.usma.edu The views expressed in this report are the authors’ and do not necessarily reflect those of the Combating Terrorism Center, United States Military Academy, Department of Defense, or U.S. Government. May 2018 Cover Photo: A group of Boko Haram fighters line up in this still taken from a propaganda video dated March 31, 2016. COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Director The editor thanks colleagues at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC), all of whom supported this endeavor by proposing the idea to carry out a LTC Bryan Price, Ph.D. report on Boko Haram and working with the editor and contributors to see the Deputy Director project to its rightful end. In this regard, I thank especially Brian Dodwell, Dan- iel Milton, Jason Warner, Kristina Hummel, and Larisa Baste, who all directly Brian Dodwell collaborated on the report. I also thank the two peer reviewers, Brandon Kend- hammer and Matthew Page, for their input and valuable feedback without which Research Director we could not have completed this project up to such a high standard. There were Dr. Daniel Milton numerous other leaders and experts at the CTC who assisted with this project behind-the-scenes, and I thank them, too. Distinguished Chair Most importantly, we would like to dedicate this volume to all those whose lives LTG (Ret) Dell Dailey have been afected by conflict and to those who have devoted their lives to seeking Class of 1987 Senior Fellow peace and justice.
    [Show full text]
  • Representing the Algerian Civil War: Literature, History, and the State
    Representing the Algerian Civil War: Literature, History, and the State By Neil Grant Landers A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in French in the GRADUATE DIVISION of the UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY Committee in charge: Professor Debarati Sanyal, Co-Chair Professor Soraya Tlatli, Co-Chair Professor Karl Britto Professor Stefania Pandolfo Fall 2013 1 Abstract of the Dissertation Representing the Algerian Civil War: Literature, History, and the State by Neil Grant Landers Doctor of Philosophy in French Literature University of California, Berkeley Professor Debarati Sanyal, Co-Chair Professor Soraya Tlatli, Co-Chair Representing the Algerian Civil War: Literature, History, and the State addresses the way the Algerian civil war has been portrayed in 1990s novelistic literature. In the words of one literary critic, "The Algerian war has been, in a sense, one big murder mystery."1 This may be true, but literary accounts portray the "mystery" of the civil war—and propose to solve it—in sharply divergent ways. The primary aim of this study is to examine how three of the most celebrated 1990s novels depict—organize, analyze, interpret, and "solve"—the civil war. I analyze and interpret these novels—by Assia Djebar, Yasmina Khadra, and Boualem Sansal—through a deep contextualization, both in terms of Algerian history and in the novels' contemporary setting. This is particularly important in this case, since the civil war is so contested, and is poorly understood. Using the novels' thematic content as a cue for deeper understanding, I engage through them and with them a number of elements crucial to understanding the civil war: Algeria's troubled nationalist legacy; its stagnant one-party regime; a fear, distrust, and poor understanding of the Islamist movement and the insurgency that erupted in 1992; and the unending, horrifically bloody violence that piled on throughout the 1990s.
    [Show full text]
  • Jihadism in Africa Local Causes, Regional Expansion, International Alliances
    SWP Research Paper Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Guido Steinberg and Annette Weber (Eds.) Jihadism in Africa Local Causes, Regional Expansion, International Alliances RP 5 June 2015 Berlin All rights reserved. © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2015 SWP Research Papers are peer reviewed by senior researchers and the execu- tive board of the Institute. They express exclusively the personal views of the authors. SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 3­4 10719 Berlin Germany Phone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 www.swp-berlin.org [email protected] ISSN 1863-1053 Translation by Meredith Dale (Updated English version of SWP-Studie 7/2015) Table of Contents 5 Problems and Recommendations 7 Jihadism in Africa: An Introduction Guido Steinberg and Annette Weber 13 Al-Shabaab: Youth without God Annette Weber 31 Libya: A Jihadist Growth Market Wolfram Lacher 51 Going “Glocal”: Jihadism in Algeria and Tunisia Isabelle Werenfels 69 Spreading Local Roots: AQIM and Its Offshoots in the Sahara Wolfram Lacher and Guido Steinberg 85 Boko Haram: Threat to Nigeria and Its Northern Neighbours Moritz Hütte, Guido Steinberg and Annette Weber 99 Conclusions and Recommendations Guido Steinberg and Annette Weber 103 Appendix 103 Abbreviations 104 The Authors Problems and Recommendations Jihadism in Africa: Local Causes, Regional Expansion, International Alliances The transnational terrorism of the twenty-first century feeds on local and regional conflicts, without which most terrorist groups would never have appeared in the first place. That is the case in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Syria and Iraq, as well as in North and West Africa and the Horn of Africa.
    [Show full text]
  • Stabilizing Mali Neighbouring States´Poliitical and Military Engagement
    This report aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of the Stabilising Mali political and security context in which the United Nations’ stabili- sation mission in Mali, MINUSMA, operates, with a particular focus on the neighbouring states. The study seeks to identify and explain the different drivers that have led to fi ve of Mali’s neighbouring states – Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Niger and Senegal – contributing troops to MINUSMA, while two of them – Algeria and Mauretania – have decided not to. Through an analysis of the main interests and incentives that explain these states’ political and military engagement in Mali, the study also highlights how the neighbouring states could infl uence confl ict resolution in Mali. Stabilising Mali Neighbouring states’ political and military engagement Gabriella Ingerstad and Magdalena Tham Lindell FOI-R--4026--SE ISSN1650-1942 www.foi.se January 2015 Gabriella Ingerstad and Magdalena Tham Lindell Stabilising Mali Neighbouring states’ political and military engagement Bild/Cover: (UN Photo/Blagoje Grujic) FOI-R--4026--SE Titel Stabiliser ing av Mali. Grannstaters politiska och militära engagemang Title Stabilising Mali. Neighbouring states’ political and military engagement Rapportnr/Report no FOI-R--4026--SE Månad/Month Januari/ January Utgivningsår/Year 2015 Antal sidor/Pages 90 ISSN 1650-1942 Kund/Customer Utrikesdepartementet/Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs Forskningsområde 8. Säkerhetspolitik Projektnr/Project no B12511 Godkänd av/Approved by Maria Lignell Jakobsson Ansvarig avdelning Försvarsanalys Detta verk är skyddat enligt lagen (1960:729) om upphovsrätt till litterära och konstnärliga verk. All form av kopiering, översättning eller bearbetning utan medgivande är förbjuden. This work is protected under the Act on Copyright in Literary and Artistic Works (SFS 1960:729).
    [Show full text]
  • If Our Men Won't Fight, We Will"
    “If our men won’t ourmen won’t “If This study is a gender based confl ict analysis of the armed con- fl ict in northern Mali. It consists of interviews with people in Mali, at both the national and local level. The overwhelming result is that its respondents are in unanimous agreement that the root fi causes of the violent confl ict in Mali are marginalization, discrimi- ght, wewill” nation and an absent government. A fact that has been exploited by the violent Islamists, through their provision of services such as health care and employment. Islamist groups have also gained support from local populations in situations of pervasive vio- lence, including sexual and gender-based violence, and they have offered to restore security in exchange for local support. Marginality serves as a place of resistance for many groups, also northern women since many of them have grievances that are linked to their limited access to public services and human rights. For these women, marginality is a site of resistance that moti- vates them to mobilise men to take up arms against an unwilling government. “If our men won’t fi ght, we will” A Gendered Analysis of the Armed Confl ict in Northern Mali Helené Lackenbauer, Magdalena Tham Lindell and Gabriella Ingerstad FOI-R--4121--SE ISSN1650-1942 November 2015 www.foi.se Helené Lackenbauer, Magdalena Tham Lindell and Gabriella Ingerstad "If our men won't fight, we will" A Gendered Analysis of the Armed Conflict in Northern Mali Bild/Cover: (Helené Lackenbauer) Titel ”If our men won’t fight, we will” Title “Om våra män inte vill strida gör vi det” Rapportnr/Report no FOI-R--4121—SE Månad/Month November Utgivningsår/Year 2015 Antal sidor/Pages 77 ISSN 1650-1942 Kund/Customer Utrikes- & Försvarsdepartementen Forskningsområde 8.
    [Show full text]
  • Middle Eastern Politics & Culture
    Middle Eastern Politics & Culture: TODAY & YESTERDAY By Origins: Current Events in Historical Perspective origins.osu.edu Table of Contents Page Chapter 1: Middle Eastern Politics 1 The Secular Roots of a Religious Divide in Contemporary Iraq 2 A New View on the Israeli-Palestine Conflict: From Needs to Narrative to Negotiation 15 Erdoğan’s Presidential Dreams, Turkey’s Constitutional Politics 28 Clampdown and Blowback: How State Repression Has Radicalized Islamist Groups in Egypt 40 A Fresh Start for Pakistan? 51 Alawites and the Fate of Syria 63 Syria's Islamic Movement and the 2011-12 Uprising 75 From Gaza to Jerusalem: Is the Two State Solution under Siege? 88 The Long, Long Struggle for Women's Rights in Afghanistan 101 Egypt Once Again Bans the Muslim Brotherhood, Sixty Years Later 112 Understanding the Middle East 115 Afghanistan: Past and Prospects 116 Ataturk: An Intellectual Biography 117 A History of Iran: Empire of the Mind 120 Chapter 2: Water and the Middle East 123 Baptized in the Jordan: Restoring a Holy River 124 Who Owns the Nile? Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia’s History-Changing Dam 139 Outdoing Panama: Turkey’s ‘Crazy’ Plan to Build an Istanbul Canal 150 Chapter 3: Islam, Christianity, and Culture in the Middle East 163 Two Popes and a Primate: The Changing Face of Global Christianity 164 What's in a Name?: The Meaning of “Muslim Fundamentalist” 177 Tradition vs Charisma: The Sunni-Shi'i Divide in the Muslim World 185 The Dangers of Being a Humorist: Charlie Hebdo Is Not Alone 192 Civilizations of Ancient Iraq 196 Chapter 4: Maps and Charts 200 About Origins 222 Chapter 1 Middle Eastern Politics (Image: Siria Bosra by Jose Javier Martin Esparto, Flickr.com (CC BY-NC- SA 2.0)) Section 1 The Secular Roots of a Religious Divide in Contemporary Iraq EDITOR’S NOTE: By STACY E.
    [Show full text]
  • Why the Protests in Algeria Have Not Trans
    Artical Name : Why the protests in Algeria have not transformed into a popular revolt Artical Subject : Why the protests in Algeria have not transformed into a popular revolt Publish Date: 15/01/2017 Auther Name: Future for Advanced Research and Studies Subject : Indications of growing tensions in the social fabric of Algeria during the first days of 2017 have emerged as a number of cities in the provinces of Bagya, Boureya, Boumardis, Teezy and Zo have witnessed widespread protests. The protests were accompanied by acts of sabotage and burning of public facilities. The phenomenon of masked vandals roaming the streets is considered to be a challenge to the authorities coincided with the anniversary of the Arab Spring movements, which led to the ouster of several regimes in the Arab world. The ongoing economic problems and social gaps exasperating among the people of Algeria serve as the existential backdrop to the growing unrest. Despite this, the movements have not transformed into a popular revolt, despite the ripe environment for a revolution. There are several reasons that have hindered this scenario from taking place, including: a weak youth movement, memories of the Black Decade (the Algerian Civil War in the ¶s), a lack of credible Islamist parties, the role of the military in facing up to the internal chaos, a lack of transition amongst Arab Spring Movements, and a fear of instigating the violence that occurred in Arab Spring states. In other words, it can be stated that the revolutionary developments that have taken hold of the Arab region over the last 6 years have not reached Algeria in a revolutionary form, but have manifested instead in the form of limited protests.
    [Show full text]
  • Spoiling in Algeria and the Collapse of the FIS an Analysis of Algeria's Spoiler Problem 1994-1995
    Spoiling in Algeria and the Collapse of the FIS: An Analysis of Algeria’s Spoiler Problem, 1994-1995 The Algerian Civil War has cemented itself as a significant case study because of not only the longevity of its conflict (approximately ten years) or because of its violent and often brutal nature (over 150,000 casualties), but because of the significant spoiler problem that occurred within Algeria’s peacebuilding initiatives. These peacebuilding initiatives between 1994 and 1995 represented the most significant period of mutual dialogue between the Algerian regime and the Islamist rebel groups. There have been two common assumptions about the Algerian Civil War. The first is that the conflict is often defined by the Islamist challenge, meaning that the various armed Islamist actors have often been construed as “spoilers” to the peacebuilding measures. They are construed to value their radical ideologies over pragmatic considerations and utilize violence and terror as weapons. The other is that the Algerian Civil War consisted of primarily two sides, one the armed Islamist camp, and the other the government camp. Both of these assumptions are wrong. An analysis of Algeria’s civil war spoilers between 1994 and 1995 uncovers who spoiled these peace initiatives and why these spoilers emerged. This chapter functions as a targeted case study bound in both time and space, to focus not only on the Algerian Civil War (1991-2003), but also more specifically on the peacebuilding initiatives and spoiling behavior during the first two years of the reign of Algerian President Liamine Zéroual (1994-1995). The analysis of this conflict will use three peacebuilding initiatives as vessels to study Algeria’s spoilers.
    [Show full text]
  • Oil and the Eruption of the Algerian Civil War: a Context-Sensitive Analysis of the Ambivalent Impact of Resource Abundance
    A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Shabafrouz, Miriam Working Paper Oil and the Eruption of the Algerian Civil War: A Context-sensitive Analysis of the Ambivalent Impact of Resource Abundance GIGA Working Papers, No. 118 Provided in Cooperation with: GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies Suggested Citation: Shabafrouz, Miriam (2010) : Oil and the Eruption of the Algerian Civil War: A Context-sensitive Analysis of the Ambivalent Impact of Resource Abundance, GIGA Working Papers, No. 118, German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA), Hamburg This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/47754 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten
    [Show full text]
  • The Logic of the Algerian Civil
    Luis Martinez. The Algerian Civil War, 1990-1998. Translated by Jonathan Derrick. The CERI Series in Comparative Politics and International Studies. New York: Columbia University Press, 2000. xxi + 265 pp. $27.50, cloth, ISBN 978-0-231-11996-2. Reviewed by John Calvert Published on H-Africa (March, 2003) The Logic of the Algerian Civil War ety of armed Islamist groups, several of them Algeria stood out among Arab countries in the spin-offs of the FIS, against the security forces of late 1980s and early 1990s in taking concrete steps the state. toward the establishment of a liberal democracy. At its height, the struggle was marked by mas‐ In a desperate effort to shore up its fagging legiti‐ sacres of civilians, including the notorious 1997 macy, the ruling FLN (National Liberation Front) killings by radical Islamists of some four hundred arranged for Algeria's frst national elections. The women, children, and men at Bentalha in the Mi‐ provision of such a political opening was a gam‐ tidja plain. Government anti-insurgency opera‐ ble, but the regime assumed that the electorate tions, for their part, were blamed for extra-judi‐ would rally behind its newly found political liber‐ cial killings and other atrocities. To date the con‐ alism, thus restoring its political fortunes. It there‐ flict has claimed perhaps 100,000 lives, more than fore came as a shock when the Islamist FIS (Front those killed in the Lebanese civil war during the Islamique du Salut) handily won the initial round mid-1970s and early 1980s. of municipal elections and appeared set to win Luis Martinez, author of The Algerian Civil the next far more significant national round of War, 1990-1998, sets himself the task of explain‐ voting scheduled for 1992.
    [Show full text]
  • The Sustainability of Post-Conflict Development: the Case of Algeria
    sustainability Article The Sustainability of Post-Conflict Development: The Case of Algeria Khaldoon A. Mourad * and Helen Avery Centre for Middle Eastern Studies, Faculty of Social Science, Lund University, 22100 Lund, Sweden; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 6 May 2019; Accepted: 25 May 2019; Published: 29 May 2019 Abstract: The Algerian civil war, 1992–2002, affected all aspects of life in the country. Major development efforts were therefore initiated in the post-conflict era. Almost 20 years later, the economy remains fragile, and the country’s large hydrocarbon revenues have not been used to develop the infrastructure for sustainability, support energy transition or reduce structural vulnerabilities. This paper provides an overview of Algerian development strategies before and after the conflict, examining in particular the orientation of major development projects involving foreign financing. Two rural development programmes are described to illustrate the outcomes of such projects. The results show that the conflict stopped or hindered many ongoing and planned development projects in the country, especially in the agriculture sector, while new investments in industry started after the conflict. The review of individual development projects further revealed that many projects between 1980–2017 had doubtful benefits with respect to long-term development goals. Initiatives tended to be discontinued once the funding period closed, and the involvement of the private sector was low. It is therefore concluded that additional attention needs to be devoted to long-term and structural impacts of development projects, including considerations regarding sustainability, demographics, and climate-related future changes. Keywords: post-conflict recovery; development strategies; rural development projects; sustainability transitions; long-term goals; hydrocarbon dependency; MENA region 1.
    [Show full text]
  • Boko Haram's Fluctuating Affiliations
    Boko Haram Beyond the Headlines: Analyses of Africa’s Enduring Insurgency Editor: Jacob Zenn ZENN BOKO HARAM BEYOND THE HEADLINES MAY 2018 CHAPTER 6: Boko Haram’s Fluctuating Affiliations: Future Prospects for Realignment with al-Qa`ida By Jacob Zenn Introduction The group commonly known as “Boko Haram”613 has gained international notoriety in recent years. First, it claimed to have ‘enslaved’ more than 200 schoolgirls in Chibok, Nigeria, in May 2014, which led to an international outcry and the founding of a global social media movement calling for the girls’ release, #BringBackOurGirls. The movement finally pressured the Nigerian government to negotiate for the release of more than 100 of the girls in 2016 and 2017. While Boko Haram was holding these girls captive, it also merged with the Islamic State in March 2015. The Islamic State’s acceptance of Boko Haram leader Abu Bakr Shekau’s pledge to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi led to the renaming of Boko Haram from its former ofcial title, Jama`at Ahl al-Sunna li- Da`wa wa-l-Jihad,614 to Islamic State in West Africa Province (al-Dawla al-Islamiya fi Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiya), or ISWAP, as well as the Islamic State’s upgrading of the new ISWAP’s media operations.615 Despite that the Islamic State has also “commanded the world’s attention” in recent years, including for its merger with Boko Haram, out of the media glare al-Qa`ida has, according to terrorism scholar Bruce Hofman, “been quietly rebuilding and fortifying its various branches.”616 Indeed, prior to 2015, the nature and extent of Boko Haram’s
    [Show full text]